Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors · 2020. 2....

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Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors Manmohan Kapshe, Satish Yawale Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India Aashish Deshpande National Institute of Technical Teachers' Training and Research, Bhopal, India 21 th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba Japan 13-14 November 2015

Transcript of Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors · 2020. 2....

  • Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors

    Manmohan Kapshe, Satish YawaleMaulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Aashish DeshpandeNational Institute of Technical Teachers' Training and Research, Bhopal, India

    21th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba Japan13-14 November 2015

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Presentation Sequence

    BackgroundResidential and Transport SectorsModelling the Select SectorsScenario DefinitionsResults and Findings

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Mega UAs/Cities• Three megacities in India as per Census 2011

    with 10 million or more population• These are:

    • Greater Mumbai UA 18.4 million• Delhi UA 16.3 million• Kolkata UA 14.1 million

    53 Million Plus UAs/Cities in India with population of one million or more. In Census 2001 the number was 35.

    Million Plus UAs/Cities India: 2011

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Age/Gender Profile

    Population Projec tion for 2030

    70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

    0-4 5-9

    10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    Age

    grou

    p

    Population (million)

    Female Male

    Population Projec tion for 2010

    70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

    0-4 5-9

    10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    Age

    grou

    p

    Population (million)

    Female Male

    Population Projec tion for 2050

    70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

    0-4 5-9

    10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    Age

    grou

    p

    Population (million)

    Female Male

    Population in 1970

    50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50

    0-4 5-9

    10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    Age

    grou

    p

    Population (million)

    Female Male

    1970 2010

    2030 2050

    Chart4

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2030

    50.892

    -53.347

    53.437

    -56.008

    55.626

    -58.313

    56.721

    -59.519

    56.669

    -59.535

    56.12

    -58.992

    55.553

    -58.38

    54.217

    -56.918

    50.822

    -53.198

    46.166

    -47.892

    39.48

    -40.47

    36.596

    -36.914

    31.629

    -31.087

    25.833

    -24.531

    19.578

    -17.81

    13.055

    -11.142

    7.612

    -5.849

    3.681

    -2.589

    1.363

    -0.901

    0.333

    -0.215

    0.05

    -0.032

    Medium Data

    Female population (1000)

    0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    1950271682180719859179981565413424115589962841969536089478239403152200610213191132850

    1970419213519330779260722219719585177601580713492113799585795662474483305915746011793340

    1990563675018343623414873739733009286962403120254176231558113294105197806543833741514501124192

    20005882056640535454926642781404623638632086278102310319149161781356110595739145642431936258476

    201058316571575685955959528714837341759394033537531037265762156917109134041004066393612155150510414

    20305089253437556265672156669561205555354217508224616639480365963162925833195781305576123681136333350

    2050465494780548413483625011452826548575569355332544525346551446468714035431381249321674791493742993160

    male population (1000)

    1950278342219420294188511677614566126501104495508034647255264188218717709142961183571

    19704470038140336292855123543202931839716757146421241910373851867004841303617145921243340

    1990596495376047120451914093336285317222651621515181191576313452106057693515130861404477108192

    2000620176019257185528244623943998396133497230377250571981215984129719953677840122034780222425

    2010613506036460171594235640351636445794203037641329732813522444167301228787315555292012133848011

    2030533475600858313595195953558992583805691853198478924047036914310872453117810111425849258990121532

    205048626498865053050511523705517257254580755760356484550205217646299381652803520731128036353233955278

    1950

    FemaleMale

    0-427.17-27.83

    5-921.81-22.19

    10-1419.86-20.29

    15-1918.00-18.85

    20-2415.65-16.78

    25-2913.42-14.57

    30-3411.56-12.65

    35-399.96-11.04

    40-448.42-9.55

    45-496.95-8.03

    50-546.09-6.47

    55-594.78-5.53

    60-643.94-4.19

    65-693.15-2.19

    70-742.01-1.77

    75-791.02-0.91

    80-840.32-0.30

    85-890.11-0.12

    90-950.03-0.04

    95-990.01-0.01

    100+0.00-0.00

    1950

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1950

    1970

    FemaleMale

    0-441.92-44.70

    5-935.19-38.14

    10-1430.78-33.63

    15-1926.07-28.55

    20-2422.20-23.54

    25-2919.59-20.29

    30-3417.76-18.40

    35-3915.81-16.76

    40-4413.49-14.64

    45-4911.38-12.42

    50-549.59-10.37

    55-597.96-8.52

    60-646.25-6.70

    65-694.48-4.84

    70-743.06-3.04

    75-791.57-1.71

    80-840.60-0.59

    85-890.18-0.12

    90-950.03-0.03

    95-990.00-0.00

    100+0.000.00

    1970

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1970

    1990

    FemaleMale

    0-456.37-59.65

    5-950.18-53.76

    10-1443.62-47.12

    15-1941.49-45.19

    20-2437.40-40.93

    25-2933.01-36.29

    30-3428.70-31.72

    35-3924.03-26.52

    40-4420.25-21.52

    45-4917.62-18.12

    50-5415.58-15.76

    55-5913.29-13.45

    60-6410.52-10.61

    65-697.81-7.69

    70-745.44-5.15

    75-793.37-3.09

    80-841.51-1.40

    85-890.50-0.48

    90-950.12-0.11

    95-990.02-0.02

    100+0.00-0.00

    1990

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1990

    2000

    Population (million)

    FemaleMale

    0-458.82-62.02

    5-956.64-60.19

    10-1453.545-57.19

    15-1949.266-52.82

    20-2442.781-46.24

    25-2940.462-44.00

    30-3436.386-39.61

    35-3932.086-34.97

    40-4427.81-30.38

    45-4923.103-25.06

    50-5419.149-19.81

    55-5916.178-15.98

    60-6413.561-12.97

    65-6910.595-9.95

    70-747.391-6.78

    75-794.564-4.01

    80-842.431-2.03

    85-890.936-0.78

    90-950.258-0.22

    95-990.047-0.04

    100+0.006-0.01

    2000

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2000

    2010

    FemaleMale

    0-458.316-61.35

    5-957.157-60.364

    10-1456.859-60.171

    15-1955.959-59.423

    20-2452.871-56.403

    25-2948.373-51.636

    30-3441.759-44.579

    35-3939.403-42.03

    40-4435.375-37.641

    45-4931.037-32.973

    50-5426.576-28.135

    55-5921.569-22.444

    60-6417.109-16.73

    65-6913.404-12.287

    70-7410.04-8.731

    75-796.639-5.555

    80-843.612-2.92

    85-891.551-1.213

    90-950.505-0.384

    95-990.104-0.08

    100+0.014-0.011

    2010

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2010

    2030

    FemaleMale

    0-450.89-53.347

    5-953.44-56.008

    10-1455.63-58.313

    15-1956.72-59.519

    20-2456.67-59.535

    25-2956.12-58.992

    30-3455.55-58.38

    35-3954.22-56.918

    40-4450.82-53.198

    45-4946.17-47.892

    50-5439.48-40.47

    55-5936.60-36.914

    60-6431.63-31.087

    65-6925.83-24.531

    70-7419.58-17.81

    75-7913.06-11.142

    80-847.61-5.849

    85-893.68-2.589

    90-951.36-0.901

    95-990.33-0.215

    100+0.05-0.032

    2030

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2030

    2050

    FemaleMale

    0-446.55-48.63

    5-947.81-49.89

    10-1448.41-50.53

    15-1948.36-50.51

    20-2450.11-52.37

    25-2952.83-55.17

    30-3454.86-57.25

    35-3955.69-58.08

    40-4455.33-57.60

    45-4954.45-56.48

    50-5453.47-55.02

    55-5951.45-52.18

    60-6446.87-46.30

    65-6940.35-38.17

    70-7431.38-28.04

    75-7924.93-20.73

    80-8416.75-12.80

    85-899.15-6.35

    90-953.74-2.34

    95-990.99-0.55

    100+0.16-0.08

    2050

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2050

    Chart3

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2010

    58.316

    -61.35

    57.157

    -60.364

    56.859

    -60.171

    55.959

    -59.423

    52.871

    -56.403

    48.373

    -51.636

    41.759

    -44.579

    39.403

    -42.03

    35.375

    -37.641

    31.037

    -32.973

    26.576

    -28.135

    21.569

    -22.444

    17.109

    -16.73

    13.404

    -12.287

    10.04

    -8.731

    6.639

    -5.555

    3.612

    -2.92

    1.551

    -1.213

    0.505

    -0.384

    0.104

    -0.08

    0.014

    -0.011

    Medium Data

    Female population (1000)

    0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    1950271682180719859179981565413424115589962841969536089478239403152200610213191132850

    1970419213519330779260722219719585177601580713492113799585795662474483305915746011793340

    1990563675018343623414873739733009286962403120254176231558113294105197806543833741514501124192

    20005882056640535454926642781404623638632086278102310319149161781356110595739145642431936258476

    201058316571575685955959528714837341759394033537531037265762156917109134041004066393612155150510414

    20305089253437556265672156669561205555354217508224616639480365963162925833195781305576123681136333350

    2050465494780548413483625011452826548575569355332544525346551446468714035431381249321674791493742993160

    male population (1000)

    1950278342219420294188511677614566126501104495508034647255264188218717709142961183571

    19704470038140336292855123543202931839716757146421241910373851867004841303617145921243340

    1990596495376047120451914093336285317222651621515181191576313452106057693515130861404477108192

    2000620176019257185528244623943998396133497230377250571981215984129719953677840122034780222425

    2010613506036460171594235640351636445794203037641329732813522444167301228787315555292012133848011

    2030533475600858313595195953558992583805691853198478924047036914310872453117810111425849258990121532

    205048626498865053050511523705517257254580755760356484550205217646299381652803520731128036353233955278

    1950

    FemaleMale

    0-427.17-27.83

    5-921.81-22.19

    10-1419.86-20.29

    15-1918.00-18.85

    20-2415.65-16.78

    25-2913.42-14.57

    30-3411.56-12.65

    35-399.96-11.04

    40-448.42-9.55

    45-496.95-8.03

    50-546.09-6.47

    55-594.78-5.53

    60-643.94-4.19

    65-693.15-2.19

    70-742.01-1.77

    75-791.02-0.91

    80-840.32-0.30

    85-890.11-0.12

    90-950.03-0.04

    95-990.01-0.01

    100+0.00-0.00

    1950

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1950

    1970

    FemaleMale

    0-441.92-44.70

    5-935.19-38.14

    10-1430.78-33.63

    15-1926.07-28.55

    20-2422.20-23.54

    25-2919.59-20.29

    30-3417.76-18.40

    35-3915.81-16.76

    40-4413.49-14.64

    45-4911.38-12.42

    50-549.59-10.37

    55-597.96-8.52

    60-646.25-6.70

    65-694.48-4.84

    70-743.06-3.04

    75-791.57-1.71

    80-840.60-0.59

    85-890.18-0.12

    90-950.03-0.03

    95-990.00-0.00

    100+0.000.00

    1970

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1970

    1990

    FemaleMale

    0-456.37-59.65

    5-950.18-53.76

    10-1443.62-47.12

    15-1941.49-45.19

    20-2437.40-40.93

    25-2933.01-36.29

    30-3428.70-31.72

    35-3924.03-26.52

    40-4420.25-21.52

    45-4917.62-18.12

    50-5415.58-15.76

    55-5913.29-13.45

    60-6410.52-10.61

    65-697.81-7.69

    70-745.44-5.15

    75-793.37-3.09

    80-841.51-1.40

    85-890.50-0.48

    90-950.12-0.11

    95-990.02-0.02

    100+0.00-0.00

    1990

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1990

    2000

    Population (million)

    FemaleMale

    0-458.82-62.02

    5-956.64-60.19

    10-1453.545-57.19

    15-1949.266-52.82

    20-2442.781-46.24

    25-2940.462-44.00

    30-3436.386-39.61

    35-3932.086-34.97

    40-4427.81-30.38

    45-4923.103-25.06

    50-5419.149-19.81

    55-5916.178-15.98

    60-6413.561-12.97

    65-6910.595-9.95

    70-747.391-6.78

    75-794.564-4.01

    80-842.431-2.03

    85-890.936-0.78

    90-950.258-0.22

    95-990.047-0.04

    100+0.006-0.01

    2000

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2000

    2010

    FemaleMale

    0-458.316-61.35

    5-957.157-60.364

    10-1456.859-60.171

    15-1955.959-59.423

    20-2452.871-56.403

    25-2948.373-51.636

    30-3441.759-44.579

    35-3939.403-42.03

    40-4435.375-37.641

    45-4931.037-32.973

    50-5426.576-28.135

    55-5921.569-22.444

    60-6417.109-16.73

    65-6913.404-12.287

    70-7410.04-8.731

    75-796.639-5.555

    80-843.612-2.92

    85-891.551-1.213

    90-950.505-0.384

    95-990.104-0.08

    100+0.014-0.011

    2010

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2010

    2030

    FemaleMale

    0-450.89-53.347

    5-953.44-56.008

    10-1455.63-58.313

    15-1956.72-59.519

    20-2456.67-59.535

    25-2956.12-58.992

    30-3455.55-58.38

    35-3954.22-56.918

    40-4450.82-53.198

    45-4946.17-47.892

    50-5439.48-40.47

    55-5936.60-36.914

    60-6431.63-31.087

    65-6925.83-24.531

    70-7419.58-17.81

    75-7913.06-11.142

    80-847.61-5.849

    85-893.68-2.589

    90-951.36-0.901

    95-990.33-0.215

    100+0.05-0.032

    2030

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2030

    2050

    FemaleMale

    0-446.55-48.63

    5-947.81-49.89

    10-1448.41-50.53

    15-1948.36-50.51

    20-2450.11-52.37

    25-2952.83-55.17

    30-3454.86-57.25

    35-3955.69-58.08

    40-4455.33-57.60

    45-4954.45-56.48

    50-5453.47-55.02

    55-5951.45-52.18

    60-6446.87-46.30

    65-6940.35-38.17

    70-7431.38-28.04

    75-7924.93-20.73

    80-8416.75-12.80

    85-899.15-6.35

    90-953.74-2.34

    95-990.99-0.55

    100+0.16-0.08

    2050

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2050

    Chart1

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2050

    46.549

    -48.626

    47.805

    -49.886

    48.413

    -50.53

    48.362

    -50.511

    50.114

    -52.37

    52.826

    -55.172

    54.857

    -57.254

    55.693

    -58.075

    55.332

    -57.603

    54.452

    -56.484

    53.465

    -55.02

    51.446

    -52.176

    46.871

    -46.299

    40.354

    -38.165

    31.381

    -28.035

    24.932

    -20.731

    16.747

    -12.803

    9.149

    -6.353

    3.742

    -2.339

    0.993

    -0.552

    0.16

    -0.078

    Medium Data

    Female population (1000)

    0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    1950271682180719859179981565413424115589962841969536089478239403152200610213191132850

    1970419213519330779260722219719585177601580713492113799585795662474483305915746011793340

    1990563675018343623414873739733009286962403120254176231558113294105197806543833741514501124192

    20005882056640535454926642781404623638632086278102310319149161781356110595739145642431936258476

    201058316571575685955959528714837341759394033537531037265762156917109134041004066393612155150510414

    20305089253437556265672156669561205555354217508224616639480365963162925833195781305576123681136333350

    2050465494780548413483625011452826548575569355332544525346551446468714035431381249321674791493742993160

    male population (1000)

    1950278342219420294188511677614566126501104495508034647255264188218717709142961183571

    19704470038140336292855123543202931839716757146421241910373851867004841303617145921243340

    1990596495376047120451914093336285317222651621515181191576313452106057693515130861404477108192

    2000620176019257185528244623943998396133497230377250571981215984129719953677840122034780222425

    2010613506036460171594235640351636445794203037641329732813522444167301228787315555292012133848011

    2030533475600858313595195953558992583805691853198478924047036914310872453117810111425849258990121532

    205048626498865053050511523705517257254580755760356484550205217646299381652803520731128036353233955278

    1950

    FemaleMale

    0-427.17-27.83

    5-921.81-22.19

    10-1419.86-20.29

    15-1918.00-18.85

    20-2415.65-16.78

    25-2913.42-14.57

    30-3411.56-12.65

    35-399.96-11.04

    40-448.42-9.55

    45-496.95-8.03

    50-546.09-6.47

    55-594.78-5.53

    60-643.94-4.19

    65-693.15-2.19

    70-742.01-1.77

    75-791.02-0.91

    80-840.32-0.30

    85-890.11-0.12

    90-950.03-0.04

    95-990.01-0.01

    100+0.00-0.00

    1950

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1950

    1970

    FemaleMale

    0-441.92-44.70

    5-935.19-38.14

    10-1430.78-33.63

    15-1926.07-28.55

    20-2422.20-23.54

    25-2919.59-20.29

    30-3417.76-18.40

    35-3915.81-16.76

    40-4413.49-14.64

    45-4911.38-12.42

    50-549.59-10.37

    55-597.96-8.52

    60-646.25-6.70

    65-694.48-4.84

    70-743.06-3.04

    75-791.57-1.71

    80-840.60-0.59

    85-890.18-0.12

    90-950.03-0.03

    95-990.00-0.00

    100+0.000.00

    1970

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1970

    1990

    FemaleMale

    0-456.37-59.65

    5-950.18-53.76

    10-1443.62-47.12

    15-1941.49-45.19

    20-2437.40-40.93

    25-2933.01-36.29

    30-3428.70-31.72

    35-3924.03-26.52

    40-4420.25-21.52

    45-4917.62-18.12

    50-5415.58-15.76

    55-5913.29-13.45

    60-6410.52-10.61

    65-697.81-7.69

    70-745.44-5.15

    75-793.37-3.09

    80-841.51-1.40

    85-890.50-0.48

    90-950.12-0.11

    95-990.02-0.02

    100+0.00-0.00

    1990

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1990

    2000

    Population (million)

    FemaleMale

    0-458.82-62.02

    5-956.64-60.19

    10-1453.545-57.19

    15-1949.266-52.82

    20-2442.781-46.24

    25-2940.462-44.00

    30-3436.386-39.61

    35-3932.086-34.97

    40-4427.81-30.38

    45-4923.103-25.06

    50-5419.149-19.81

    55-5916.178-15.98

    60-6413.561-12.97

    65-6910.595-9.95

    70-747.391-6.78

    75-794.564-4.01

    80-842.431-2.03

    85-890.936-0.78

    90-950.258-0.22

    95-990.047-0.04

    100+0.006-0.01

    2000

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2000

    2010

    FemaleMale

    0-458.316-61.35

    5-957.157-60.364

    10-1456.859-60.171

    15-1955.959-59.423

    20-2452.871-56.403

    25-2948.373-51.636

    30-3441.759-44.579

    35-3939.403-42.03

    40-4435.375-37.641

    45-4931.037-32.973

    50-5426.576-28.135

    55-5921.569-22.444

    60-6417.109-16.73

    65-6913.404-12.287

    70-7410.04-8.731

    75-796.639-5.555

    80-843.612-2.92

    85-891.551-1.213

    90-950.505-0.384

    95-990.104-0.08

    100+0.014-0.011

    2010

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2010

    2030

    FemaleMale

    0-450.89-53.347

    5-953.44-56.008

    10-1455.63-58.313

    15-1956.72-59.519

    20-2456.67-59.535

    25-2956.12-58.992

    30-3455.55-58.38

    35-3954.22-56.918

    40-4450.82-53.198

    45-4946.17-47.892

    50-5439.48-40.47

    55-5936.60-36.914

    60-6431.63-31.087

    65-6925.83-24.531

    70-7419.58-17.81

    75-7913.06-11.142

    80-847.61-5.849

    85-893.68-2.589

    90-951.36-0.901

    95-990.33-0.215

    100+0.05-0.032

    2030

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2030

    2050

    FemaleMale

    0-446.55-48.63

    5-947.81-49.89

    10-1448.41-50.53

    15-1948.36-50.51

    20-2450.11-52.37

    25-2952.83-55.17

    30-3454.86-57.25

    35-3955.69-58.08

    40-4455.33-57.60

    45-4954.45-56.48

    50-5453.47-55.02

    55-5951.45-52.18

    60-6446.87-46.30

    65-6940.35-38.17

    70-7431.38-28.04

    75-7924.93-20.73

    80-8416.75-12.80

    85-899.15-6.35

    90-953.74-2.34

    95-990.99-0.55

    100+0.16-0.08

    2050

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2050

    Chart6

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population in 1970

    41.921

    -44.7

    35.193

    -38.14

    30.779

    -33.629

    26.072

    -28.551

    22.197

    -23.543

    19.585

    -20.293

    17.76

    -18.397

    15.807

    -16.757

    13.492

    -14.642

    11.379

    -12.419

    9.585

    -10.373

    7.956

    -8.518

    6.247

    -6.7

    4.483

    -4.841

    3.059

    -3.036

    1.574

    -1.714

    0.601

    -0.592

    0.179

    -0.124

    0.033

    -0.033

    0.004

    -0.004

    0

    0

    Medium Data

    Female population (1000)

    0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

    1950271682180719859179981565413424115589962841969536089478239403152200610213191132850

    1970419213519330779260722219719585177601580713492113799585795662474483305915746011793340

    1990563675018343623414873739733009286962403120254176231558113294105197806543833741514501124192

    20005882056640535454926642781404623638632086278102310319149161781356110595739145642431936258476

    201058316571575685955959528714837341759394033537531037265762156917109134041004066393612155150510414

    20305089253437556265672156669561205555354217508224616639480365963162925833195781305576123681136333350

    2050465494780548413483625011452826548575569355332544525346551446468714035431381249321674791493742993160

    male population (1000)

    1950278342219420294188511677614566126501104495508034647255264188218717709142961183571

    19704470038140336292855123543202931839716757146421241910373851867004841303617145921243340

    1990596495376047120451914093336285317222651621515181191576313452106057693515130861404477108192

    2000620176019257185528244623943998396133497230377250571981215984129719953677840122034780222425

    2010613506036460171594235640351636445794203037641329732813522444167301228787315555292012133848011

    2030533475600858313595195953558992583805691853198478924047036914310872453117810111425849258990121532

    205048626498865053050511523705517257254580755760356484550205217646299381652803520731128036353233955278

    1950

    FemaleMale

    0-427.17-27.83

    5-921.81-22.19

    10-1419.86-20.29

    15-1918.00-18.85

    20-2415.65-16.78

    25-2913.42-14.57

    30-3411.56-12.65

    35-399.96-11.04

    40-448.42-9.55

    45-496.95-8.03

    50-546.09-6.47

    55-594.78-5.53

    60-643.94-4.19

    65-693.15-2.19

    70-742.01-1.77

    75-791.02-0.91

    80-840.32-0.30

    85-890.11-0.12

    90-950.03-0.04

    95-990.01-0.01

    100+0.00-0.00

    1950

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1950

    1970

    FemaleMale

    0-441.92-44.70

    5-935.19-38.14

    10-1430.78-33.63

    15-1926.07-28.55

    20-2422.20-23.54

    25-2919.59-20.29

    30-3417.76-18.40

    35-3915.81-16.76

    40-4413.49-14.64

    45-4911.38-12.42

    50-549.59-10.37

    55-597.96-8.52

    60-646.25-6.70

    65-694.48-4.84

    70-743.06-3.04

    75-791.57-1.71

    80-840.60-0.59

    85-890.18-0.12

    90-950.03-0.03

    95-990.00-0.00

    100+0.000.00

    1970

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population in 1970

    1990

    FemaleMale

    0-456.37-59.65

    5-950.18-53.76

    10-1443.62-47.12

    15-1941.49-45.19

    20-2437.40-40.93

    25-2933.01-36.29

    30-3428.70-31.72

    35-3924.03-26.52

    40-4420.25-21.52

    45-4917.62-18.12

    50-5415.58-15.76

    55-5913.29-13.45

    60-6410.52-10.61

    65-697.81-7.69

    70-745.44-5.15

    75-793.37-3.09

    80-841.51-1.40

    85-890.50-0.48

    90-950.12-0.11

    95-990.02-0.02

    100+0.00-0.00

    1990

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 1990

    2000

    Population (million)

    FemaleMale

    0-458.82-62.02

    5-956.64-60.19

    10-1453.545-57.19

    15-1949.266-52.82

    20-2442.781-46.24

    25-2940.462-44.00

    30-3436.386-39.61

    35-3932.086-34.97

    40-4427.81-30.38

    45-4923.103-25.06

    50-5419.149-19.81

    55-5916.178-15.98

    60-6413.561-12.97

    65-6910.595-9.95

    70-747.391-6.78

    75-794.564-4.01

    80-842.431-2.03

    85-890.936-0.78

    90-950.258-0.22

    95-990.047-0.04

    100+0.006-0.01

    2000

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2000

    2010

    FemaleMale

    0-458.316-61.35

    5-957.157-60.364

    10-1456.859-60.171

    15-1955.959-59.423

    20-2452.871-56.403

    25-2948.373-51.636

    30-3441.759-44.579

    35-3939.403-42.03

    40-4435.375-37.641

    45-4931.037-32.973

    50-5426.576-28.135

    55-5921.569-22.444

    60-6417.109-16.73

    65-6913.404-12.287

    70-7410.04-8.731

    75-796.639-5.555

    80-843.612-2.92

    85-891.551-1.213

    90-950.505-0.384

    95-990.104-0.08

    100+0.014-0.011

    2010

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2010

    2030

    FemaleMale

    0-450.89-53.347

    5-953.44-56.008

    10-1455.63-58.313

    15-1956.72-59.519

    20-2456.67-59.535

    25-2956.12-58.992

    30-3455.55-58.38

    35-3954.22-56.918

    40-4450.82-53.198

    45-4946.17-47.892

    50-5439.48-40.47

    55-5936.60-36.914

    60-6431.63-31.087

    65-6925.83-24.531

    70-7419.58-17.81

    75-7913.06-11.142

    80-847.61-5.849

    85-893.68-2.589

    90-951.36-0.901

    95-990.33-0.215

    100+0.05-0.032

    2030

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2030

    2050

    FemaleMale

    0-446.55-48.63

    5-947.81-49.89

    10-1448.41-50.53

    15-1948.36-50.51

    20-2450.11-52.37

    25-2952.83-55.17

    30-3454.86-57.25

    35-3955.69-58.08

    40-4455.33-57.60

    45-4954.45-56.48

    50-5453.47-55.02

    55-5951.45-52.18

    60-6446.87-46.30

    65-6940.35-38.17

    70-7431.38-28.04

    75-7924.93-20.73

    80-8416.75-12.80

    85-899.15-6.35

    90-953.74-2.34

    95-990.99-0.55

    100+0.16-0.08

    2050

    0-40-4

    5-95-9

    10-1410-14

    15-1915-19

    20-2420-24

    25-2925-29

    30-3430-34

    35-3935-39

    40-4440-44

    45-4945-49

    50-5450-54

    55-5955-59

    60-6460-64

    65-6965-69

    70-7470-74

    75-7975-79

    80-8480-84

    85-8985-89

    90-9590-95

    95-9995-99

    100+100+

    Female

    Male

    Female

    Male

    Age group

    Population (million)

    Population Projection for 2050

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Demographic trends and projections

    Share of Urban population

    Source: Mckinsey 2010Growth of large cities in India

    Source: Census 2001

    Million-plus Cities and Urban Agglomerations

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Source: 1. IEA Statistics 2. Energy statistics 2013

    India’s commercial energy consumption

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Source: MoEF 2010

    GHG Emissions

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Since 1981, the population of Bhopalhas multiplied about 2.5 times andnumber of registered vehicles hasincreased 85 times. Of the 0.79 millionregistered vehicles in 2011, 92% are carsand two wheelers which accounts for28% of modal share.Population growth (lakh nos)

    Vehicular growth(lakh nos)

    Population v/s Vehicle Growth

    Chart1

    1981

    2011

    Population

    6.71

    17.96

    Sheet1

    Population

    19816.71

    201117.96

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

    Chart1

    1981

    2011

    Population

    0.1

    7.9

    Sheet1

    Population

    19810.1

    20117.9

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

    Chart1

    Walk

    Two Wheelers

    Car

    Bus

    Others

    Sales

    43

    25

    3

    23

    5

    Sheet1

    Sales

    Walk43

    Two Wheelers25

    Car3

    Bus23

    Others5

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

    Chart1

    Cars

    Two wheelers

    Others

    Sales

    12

    80

    8

    Sheet1

    Sales

    Cars12

    Two wheelers80

    Others8

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    1. Rapid Growth of Travel Demand

    2. Insufficient Transport Infrastructure

    Consequences……• Congestion• Growth in number of

    vehicles• Limitation to road

    expansion• Pollution• Accidents• Public Transport

    Deterioration• Declining reliance on

    NMT

    Travel Demand• Trip rate (per capita trip)• Size of the population• Per capita income• Trip length• City size and urban sprawl

    Transport Sector Issues

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Income and energy in Residential Sector

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Residential and Transport Characteristics1. Technology shift is swift

    2. Population increase3. Energy demand increasing

    4. Emission reduction potential

    5. Co benefits 0200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    1800

    POPU

    LATI

    ON

    IN m

    illio

    n

    POPULATION OF INDIA ACTUAL AND PROJECTED

    Census(1952-2011)

    Census projection(2011-2026)

    UNPDHIGH(2000-2036)

    PFI(2000-2036)

    UN population

    UNPD: United nations population DivisionPFI: Population foundation of India

    Short Life span of technologyRapid advancement of new technology

    Introduction of efficient technologyMultiple fuel options

    Passenger and freight kilometerHouseholdFamily sizeIncome levelHousehold Appliance …..

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Some Important Questions

    1. What drives energy demand and technologychoices in Indian residential and transport sector?

    2. What has been the technology profile andresulting energy and emission in these sectors?

    3. How energy and emission trajectory is likely tochange in future under different scenarios?

    4. What is the role of clean/renewable energytechnology in bringing out this change?

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Residential and Transport Energy Scenario• India has experienced many changes in energy

    consumption pattern in both residential and transport sector. This is because of following factors:– Population growth – Increase in economy and development

    • Electricity demand in the Indian household sector has also been growing at a very rapid rate over the last decades

    • There is a large variation in energy consumption across different sections of households like urban/rural, low/high income group

    • As the income of the people increases demand for personalized modes of transport is expected to increase more rapidly

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Associated Problems and Co-benefits

    • Local pollution is one of the serious problems faced by the people in the country.

    • Rapid population growth, industrialization and urbanization in country are adversely affecting the environment as

    • India’s two third of the population resides in rural areas and fuelwood and kerosene is the main fuel for cooking and lighting, both cause harm to the women cooking food in houses.

    • Due to increase in the number of vehicle, traffic congestion is a serious problem in most of the cities in India.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Technology

    Climate change& Emissions

    Local & Global Environment

    Concerns

    Technology options

    Energy Type

    Energy Mix

    Emission mitigation

    Outcomes

    Socio-economic DevelopmentSectoral Development Energy

    Emission

    Mitigation

    efforts

    ENERGY

    ENVIRONMENTECONOMY

    SOCIETY

    PopulationLife style change

    UrbanizationIncome

    Analytical Tool

    Model

    Drivers

    Analysis Framework

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Modeling Framework

    Energy System Optimization

    (AIM/ENDUSE)

    End use services

    Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial

    Passenger travel

    Freight Travel

    Cooking Lighting

    Demand projection

    OutcomesTechnology mixEmissionSectoral energy consumption

    Cooling Heating

    Other Electric end use

    Technology Share

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Diesel train

    Electric Train

    Air craft

    Ship

    Animal Cart

    Battery operated two wheeler

    Battery operated four wheeler

    Two Wheeler

    Three Wheeler

    Four Wheeler

    Bus

    HCV

    LCV

    Gasoline

    Heavy Oil

    Diesel

    CNG

    Electricity

    Coal

    ATF

    Animal power

    Solar

    Bio-Diesel

    Steam Train

    Road Passenger kms

    Road Tons kms

    RailPassenger kms

    Rail Tons kms

    AirPassenger kms

    WaterTons kms

    WaterPassenger kms

    Satish Yawale 093113201

    Reference Energy Systems

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Electricity

    Water Heating

    Petromax lanternHurricane lantern

    Wick lantern

    Solar Lantern

    LED Lighting

    CFL Light

    Tube light

    Incandescent Lamp

    Lighting

    LPG

    Coal

    Fuel wood

    Dung

    Crop residue

    Charcoal

    Solar

    LPG StoveCharcoal stove

    Coal StoveFuel wood Stove

    Crop residue stove

    Kerosene Stove

    Electric stoveMicrowave oven

    OTG StoveGas Oven

    Solar CookerSolar Concentrator

    Cooking

    Solar Water heater

    Immersion heater

    AppliancesFan, Cooler, A/C

    RefrigeratorTV

    Computer/LaptopsMusic players

    Washing MachineHot Iron

    Other electrical appliance

    Space Cooling/HeatingRefrigeration

    EntertainmentWashing

    Other end use

    Kerosene

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Scenario Description

    • Business as Usual: – BaU scenario for future emission projections assumes

    continuation with present trend. • Constraint on Carbon:

    – Different level of CO2 emission reduction.• Taxes on Carbon:

    – Energy and emission taxes are applied with assumption to shift towards efficient and cleaner technology

    • Renewable Energy Technology:– Energy and emission taxes along with subsidy on

    renewable energy technology.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Primary Energy and CO2 Emission

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Energy and Emission Residential Sector

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Energy and Emission in Transport Sector

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Technology options in Residential Cooking

    Technology options in Residential Lighting

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Technology options in Passenger Transportation

    Technology options in Freight Transportation

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Scenario wise Energy Consumption

    Future Energy Consumption in Transport Sector

    Future Energy Consumption in Residential sector

    0.0

    2.8

    5.6

    8.4

    11.2

    14.0

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Tran

    spor

    t Sec

    tor

    Ene

    rgy

    Con

    sum

    ptio

    n

    YearsBaU_Transport CoC_Transport TCoC_Transport RET_Transport

    Index Year 2000 = 1

    0.0

    0.7

    1.4

    2.1

    2.8

    3.5

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Res

    iden

    tial S

    ecto

    r E

    nerg

    y C

    onsu

    mpt

    ion

    Years

    BaU_Residential CoC_Residential TCoC_Residential RET_Residential

    Index Year 2000 = 1

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Scenario wise CO2 Emission Future Emission

    in Transport Sector

    Future Emission in Residential Sector

    0.0

    3.0

    6.0

    9.0

    12.0

    15.0

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Tran

    spor

    t Sec

    tor

    CO

    2E

    mis

    sion

    Years

    BaU_Transport CoC_Transport TCoC_Transport RET_Transport

    Index Year 2000 = 1

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Res

    iden

    tial S

    ecto

    r C

    O2

    Em

    issi

    on

    YearsBaU_Residential CoC_Residential TCoC_Residential RET_Residential

    Index Year 2000 = 1

    Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Energy: Conventional fuels: bio-mass, wood, charcoal, cow dung reduce Commercial fuels : electricity, natural gas, renewables, etc. increase Residential Sector: LPG and Electricity - Main source of energy, Kerosene &

    Coal - Decline its share by 2030 & 2020. Solar Energy - increases withsubsidy

    Transport Sector: Diesel and gasoline - increase in BaU, Decline slightly inRET. Decrease in these fuels is possible with the use of bio-diesel andpromotion of cycling and walking.

    Emission: Over the analysis period the CO2 emission from residential and transport

    sector of India increases by 2.5 fold and 8 fold respectively in BaU.. Advances in technologies and upcoming renewable options can bring down

    the CO2 emission by 40% in year 2050. In constraint scenarios, transport sector has higher potential to mitigate

    emission whereas in RET scenario, residential sector takes the prominentposition.

    Technology choices:Residential Sector: CFL, LED, Solar water heater, 3-5 star rating appliancesTransport sector: Walking, cycling, bio-diesel, public transport

    Major Findings

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Workshop on “Climate Change Scenario Development for Policy Analysis” Under TCS Colombo Plan, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India at NITTTR, Bhopal

    January 05-16, 2015

    Participants from Myanmar, Lao PDR, Sri Lanka presenting regional analysis.

  • Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

    Forthcoming Training Workshops on Climate Change Issues and Challenges

    January 04-08, 2016 Modeling for Energy & Emission Policy Design(Using AIM EndUse & ExSS)

    February 15-19, 2016 Sustainable Development Practices forTechnical Institutions (LCS Concepts)

    December 06-18, 2015 Climate Change, Scenario Development forPolicy Analysis (Using AIM ExSS for LCS)

    For details contact:Prof. Aashish Deshpande, Department of Management,NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNICAL TEACHERS’ TRAINING & RESEARCH, BHOPAL, INDIA

  • Thank You….

    [email protected]

    [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

    Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in �Indian Residential and Transport SectorsPresentation SequenceMillion Plus UAs/Cities India: 2011Age/Gender ProfileDemographic trends and projectionsIndia’s commercial energy consumptionGHG EmissionsPopulation v/s Vehicle GrowthTransport Sector IssuesIncome and energy in Residential SectorResidential and Transport CharacteristicsSome Important QuestionsResidential and Transport Energy ScenarioAssociated Problems and Co-benefitsAnalysis FrameworkModeling FrameworkReference Energy Systems スライド番号 18Scenario DescriptionPrimary Energy and CO2 EmissionEnergy and Emission Residential SectorEnergy and Emission in Transport Sectorスライド番号 23スライド番号 24Scenario wise Energy ConsumptionScenario wise CO2 Emission Major FindingsWorkshop on “Climate Change Scenario Development for Policy Analysis” Under TCS Colombo Plan, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India at NITTTR, BhopalForthcoming Training Workshops on Climate Change Issues and ChallengesThank You….��[email protected]��[email protected]��