Abu Dhabi, UAE

26 May 2016

Technology Briefs

Further country engagement and

overview of transport sector briefs

IRENA Innovation Day:

The age of renewable energy

2

Aim: Provide a concise summary for policy-makers on the current status of

various renewable energy technologies

Process and Technology status

Performance and Capacity

Costs

Potentials and Barriers

Structure of the briefs:

IRENA Technology Brief series

Amongst Top-3 most

downloaded IRENA

publications

3

Technology briefs cover a wide range

of technologies and applications

Application /

Technology

Power Heat &

cooling

Buildings Transport Industry Other

applications

Bioenergy • Biomass co-

firing

• Biomass heat

and power

• Wood pellets • Bio-digesters

for cooking

• Liquid biofuels

• Biogas for

transport

• Biofuels for

aviation

• Bio-methanol

• Bio-ethylene

• Biomass

logistics

Hydro • Hydropower

Solar • PV

• CSP

• Solar thermal

for buildings

• Solar thermal

for Industries

Wind • Wind power

Geothermal • Geothermal

power

• District

heating

Ocean • Salinity

gradient

• Wave energy

• Tidal energy

• OTEC

• SWAC

Enabling • Electricity

storage

• RE grid

integration

• Thermal

storage

• Heat pumps

• RE for

shipping

• Electric

vehicles

• Desalination

for water

using RE

Status: 21 published and 6 on-going

4

Questions for discussion

during this session

• How do you see the future evolvement of IRENA

technology briefs?

• Which other technology areas, application and

sectors should IRENA prepare technology briefs for?

• How often should the technology briefs be updated?

• Is the existing structure of the technology briefs

appropriate, should it be adjusted?

• How can we engage your national institutes, experts

in the field in preparation of the briefs?

Biogas for transport

6

Biogas for transport:

Process and technology status

7

Biogas for transport:

Performance and capacity

Biogas for transportation 0.42% of the total global production & 1% in EU

Depending on feedstock type between 50-80% GHG emission reductions

2030 biogas supply 3-6 EJ can be available for transport, 2-5% of global

transport energy demand

8

Biogas for transport:

Costs

CNG price in

Germany

9

Biogas for transport:

Potential and barriers

Potential• Several EU countries have already set targets and included

biomethane in their plans

• In countries with large availability of energy crops and residues,

large potential exists

• Countries with natural gas for transport infrastructure (e.g.

Colombia)

• Potential is relevant for a number of applications with limited RE

use, notably trucks

Barriers• Competition of feedstocks for various end-uses, and the need

for residue collection infrastructure at economy of scale

• Infrastructure required for the transport system

• Has other cost-competitive applications before transport fuel

Biofuels for aviation

11

Biofuels for aviation:

Process and technology status

• Need for specialised fuels that meet strict specifications (ASTM)

• Fully functional with infrastructure and close to ~0% O2

• 3 technologies have been certified (FT, 2009 ; HEFA, 2011 – main

route today ; SIP, 2014)

• Main routes for production

• Oleochemical conversion processes (vast majority of production)

• Thermochemical route (1: Fast pyrolysis ; 2: Gasification

• Biochemical routes

Carbohydrate Hydrocarbon “Petroleum-like” biofuel

- O2

O

OH

HH

H

OH

OH

H OH

H

OH

H C C C C

H

H

H

H

H

H H

H

H

O

OH

HH

H

OH

OH

H OH

H

OH

H C C C C

H

H

H

H

H

H H

H

H

12

Biofuels for aviation:

Performance and capacity

• Today jet fuel demand 311 bln

liters/year

• 2-3%/year growth in demand

• Biojet fuel share insignificant

(<0.05%)

• Aggregation of current targets

aspirational (US, EU, Indonesia)

~ 10 bln liters by 2020

(but unlikely to be achieved)

• Plenty of initiatives for

production, R&D are plenty

13

Biofuels for aviation:

Costs, potential and barriers

• Clear climate goals in the sector

• Carbon neutral by 2020

• 50% emission reduction by 2050 compared to 2005 levels

• Costs are at least 2-4 times higher than fossil fuel equivalent

(in Feb 2016, fossil fuel-based jet fuel cost USD 340/tonne)

• In the EU, up to USD ~1,650/tonne premium may be required

• Approaches at both international and national levels needed

• Costs (continued belief that costs will be significantly higher

than fossil-based jet fuels)

• Lack of mandates to create demand, but private initiatives exist

• How to cross the “valley of death”

• Need for focus at the entire supply chain – drop-in fuels is the

first option

Electric vehicles

15

Electric vehicles:

Process and technology status

0

100

200

300

400

500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tho

usa

nd

s

BEV sales PHEV sales

CountryEst. total EVs

(Feb 2016)

EV sales

(2015)

EV share in

market (2015)

Total LDV

market

1 USA <415,000 >115,000 0.6% 17,500,000

California >189,000 >62,000 3.1% 2,100,000

2 China 300,000 207,000 0.8% 22,000,000

3 Japan 150,000 25,000 >1.0% 4,200,000

4 Netherlands 91,000 43,000 9.6% 420,000

5 Norway 90,000 34,000 >20% 170,000

6 France >70,000 27,000 1.5% 2,000,000

7 Germany >50,000 24,000 0.75% 3,500,000

8 UK >38,000 >28,000 >1.0% 2,700,000

Europe >193,000

World >1,100,000 >450,000 0.5% 88,000,000

16

Electric vehicles:

Performance and capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ba

tte

ry D

riv

ing

Ra

ng

e (

km

)

Battery capacity (kWh)

PHEV BEV

17

Electric vehicles:

Performance and capacity

020406080

100120140160180200

800 600 400 200 0

Veh

icle

CO

2 em

issi

ons

g/km

Power plant CO2 emissions, g/kWh

BEV modest (0.25 kWh/km) BEV efficient (0.15 kWh/km)

Best ICE,

2016

BEV, modest

efficiency

BEV, more

efficient

Efficient ICE

LDV, 2014

Best ICE,

2030?

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Electric vehicles:

Costs

2025

Early core

market:

6-15%

2020

3-5% of market

1st generation

early policy,

converted

vehicles,

“innovators” &

early

infrastructure

20102015

1-2%

2nd generation

improved

batteries,

more driving

range,

“followers”

Adequate

infrastructure

3rd

generation:

batteries,

vehicles,

“core market”

PEVs

competitive

A plausible PEV rollout scenario based on technology change, incentives & history of previous technology rollouts

4th

generation:

PEVs begin

to dominate

This sales curve would be similar to the rollout of HEVs in Japan & California, 1997-2015

Main market

15-25%

2030

California 2025 ZEV goal

= 15% / 1.5 million BEVS, FCV & PHEVs

700 300 200 150 Lithium pack prices per kWh

19

Electric vehicles:

Potential and barriers

Potential

• Can represent around 10% of the total vehicle fleet by 2030

• Potential including 2/3 wheelers and modal shift, in SE Asia,

LAC, Africa

• Significant air pollution benefits (urban context), reduced

congestion, less noise pollution, and power/transport sector

coupling

Barriers

• Costs are still too high

• Batteries for fast charging, and long distance travels needed

• Infrastructure costs are high (e.g. railways 10x more then road)

• Material constraints (e.g. lithium), realizing 10% share in total

vehicle fleet will require 200-600 kt/yr lithium carbonate

equivalent (twice the total production of lithium for all

applications

Thank you!