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Technical Seasonalities
eResearch Corporation is pleased to provide technical opinions on the market from a
seasonality standpoint, courtesy of Equity Clock, a division of the Tech Talk Financial
Network.eResearch also posts, daily, the regular technical opinions provided by affiliate:
Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.
Equity Clock (www.equityclock.com) is a market analysis company that provides,
completely FREE, technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via
TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com.Equity Clock’s mission is to identify
periods of re-occurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including those of
Donald Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com.
Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian
Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He holds the designation of Chartered Market
Technician (CMT).
Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions
held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on
equity markets, which is available free at TimingTheMarket.ca.
Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that
combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on
Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons
Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC).
eResearch was established in 2000 as Canada's first equity issuer-sponsored research organization. Our various research packages allow corporate management to choose the form of research coverage that best meets their company’s needs. We are a primary source for professional investment research, focused primarily on small- and mid-cap companies. Our research and analysis is of institutional quality, and has the potential to reach millions of global investors through our extensive electronic distribution network. Bob Weir, CFA: Director of Research
Note: All of the comments, views, opinions, suggestions, recommendations, etc., contained in the
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reflect those of eResearch Corporation.
Equity Clock: Seasonality Analysis March 10, 2015
Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook
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Stock Market Outlook for Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Headline: Stronger than average retail employment figures supporting the retail sector within period of seasonal strength.
The Markets Stock ended with gains on Monday, rebounding from the losses accumulated during
Friday’s session. The S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NYSE Composite all bounced from around their respective 50-day moving average lines, attempting to hold this variable level as support. The significant moving average
continues to point higher, suggesting a positive intermediate trend.
Strength on the day was led by Industrial stocks, which are starting to show early signs improving momentum at the start of their peak period of seasonal strength.
Industrial stocks typically trade higher between now and May.
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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook
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With investors anticipating a rate increase within the coming months, particularly following the strong employment report for February, treasury bond prices look to be in a precarious position. After peaking at the end of January following test of trendline
resistance, the price of the 30-year treasury bond has traded lower by around 7%, now testing the middle line of the long-term rising trend channel. Assuming price trades to the lower limit of the rising range, a decline of around 13% (to $130) from present
levels is still implied.
On a positive note, when the long-term treasury bond prices resists from the upper band of the trading range and subsequently trades lower, equity prices typically benefit
as investors rotate from one asset class to the other. A break below the center line could act as the catalyst for this transition. The centerline has historically acted more as a level of resistance than support, implying that the potential for a bounce from current
levels is weak.
March is the weakest month of the year for treasury prices with declines recorded 87% of the time over the past 24 years.
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<continued>
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And finally for today, we have been throwing around our chart of S&P 500 returns during cold winters for the past few weeks. Although prepared for last year’s winter, the chart remains relevant to this year as well, given the extreme cold and snow that has
encompassed much of eastern Canada and US over the past eight weeks. With cold weather starting to alleviate, the burden on the economy should start to lessen.
Based on our chart from the past 50 years, today (March 10) is the average day that
the large cap benchmark breaks free of the sluggish returns generated during colder than average winter seasons. The benchmark typically trades firmly higher through to May. Aside from Friday’s upbeat employment report, economic data has largely come in
below expectations throughout the winter season, potentially impacted by the adverse weather conditions.
The improving weather may now allow for stronger economic data versus expectations,
removing a headwind that has restrained upside momentum in stocks through the first 10 weeks of the year.
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Put-Call Ratio Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.11.
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Seasonal charts A. Sectors and Industries Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today
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B. Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today
StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:SFG) Seasonal Chart
Manulife Financial Corp. (TSE:MFC) Seasonal Chart
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (NYSE:THC) Seasonal Chart
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State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) Seasonal Chart
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company (NASDAQ:RRD) Seasonal Chart
PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC) Seasonal Chart
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart
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Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) Seasonal Chart
ITT Corporation (NYSE:ITT) Seasonal Chart
Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCBK) Seasonal Chart
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Seasonal Chart
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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) Seasonal Chart
Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) Seasonal Chart
The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) Seasonal Chart
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart
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Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE:ATI) Seasonal Chart
Apollo Group, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:APOL) Seasonal Chart
Apartment Investment and Management Co. (NYSE:AIV) Seasonal Chart
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) seasonal Chart
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C. Seasonal Charts of Companies Reporting Earnings Today
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S&P 500 Index
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TSE Composite
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Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX: HAC) ● Closing Market Value: $15.85 (up 0.06%)
● Closing NAV/Unit: $15.85 (down 0.03%)
Performance*
2015
Year-to-Date
Since Inception
(Nov. 19, 2009)
HAC.TO 4.76% 58.5%
* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian
Click Here to learn more about the proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux, Brooke Thackray, and Jon Vialoux.
Special Free Services Available through www.equityclock.com Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big
and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated recently.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
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BW: Information on Equity Clock is provided on the ensuing page.
Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook
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Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis
company that provides technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis on a daily
basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com.
Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among
individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top
analysts in the industry, including that of Don Vialoux, author of
TimingTheMarkets.com.
Feel free to use any of the content or seasonality studies (charts, timelines, or
otherwise) presented as long as a link-back to this site at EquityClock.com is
provided.
For further information on indicators used in reports presented on this site, please
visit our reference page.
Equity Clock Website:www.equityclock.com
Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC)
Interested in the methodologies and strategies presented by Tech Talk? The
Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange
under symbol HAC) uses a proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy
developed by research analysts Don Vialoux and Brooke Thackray. The strategy’s
core position consists of broad markets at seasonally favourable times of the year
and money market securities at seasonally unfavourable times of the year. The
strategy allocates from the core portfolio to various sectors when those sectors
offer favourable opportunities. Rotating a portfolio in anticipation of these
opportunities is designed to deliver returns that are superior to a static investment
in broad markets. As seasonal periods are never the same, this investment strategy
is supported by additional fundamental and technical analysis.
For more information, Click Here.
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