Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca June 15, 2015 · Tech Talk for Monday, June 15, 2015 Equity Trends...

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combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on

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Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC).

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Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca June 15, 2015

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Tech Talk for Monday, June 15, 2015

Equity Trends (summary at end) The S&P 500 Index added 1.28 points (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/clip_image0057.png



Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell last week to 41.80% from 42.00%. Percent is trending down.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average was unchanged last week at 59.40%. Percent is intermediate overbought and trending down.





Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped last week to 61.80% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks dropped last week to 66.53% from 68.55% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.





The TSX Composite Index fell 216.01 points (1.44% last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on a move below 14,934.30 (Score: 0.0). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: 0.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral (Score: 0.0). Technical score slipped to 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dropped last week to 30.24% from 35.48%. Percent is trending down, but has reached an intermediate oversold level.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dipped last week to 42.74% from 45.16%. Percent continues to trend down.





The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 49.38 points (0.28%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remained at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week to 73.33% from 66.67% and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index stocks increased last week to 60.41% from 59.68% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.





NASDAQ Composite Index fell 17.36 points (0.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index fell below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score slipped to 2.0 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




The Russell 2000 Index added 4.01 points (0.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 92.84 points (1.09%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remained at 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 45.60 points (0.90%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remained at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




The Nikkei Average slipped 53.82 points (0.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed




iShares Europe 350 shares added $0.53 (1.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Shanghai Composite Index added 143.25 points (2.85%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




iShares Emerging Markets added $0.13 (0.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Equity Markets: Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 12

Green: Increase from the previous day Red: Decrease from the previous day

<continued>




Currencies The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1.37 (1.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The Euro gained 1.56 (1.41%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Canadian Dollar added US0.90 cents (1.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Canuck Buck moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Japanese Yen gained 1.37 (1.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Commodities (summary at end) The CRB Index benefited from weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The Index gained 1.37 (1.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 1.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

<continued>




Gasoline gained $0.10 per gallon (4.95%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above $2.10. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 1.5. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

<continued>




Crude Oil added $1.08 per barrel (1.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Technical score improved to 2.0 from 0.5. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Natural Gas added $0.16 per MBtu (6.18%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. “Natty” remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed




The S&P Energy Index fell 5.28 points (0.93%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Philadelphia Oil Services Index fell 1.54 points (0.73%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.5 from 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Gold gained $7.40 per ounce (0.63%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Gold remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to neutral from negative. Technical score improved to 1.0 from 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Silver dropped $0.27 per ounce (1.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to gold remains negative.




The AMEX Gold Bug Index dropped 3.85 points (2.41%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to Gold remains negative.




Platinum slipped $0.60 per ounce (0.05%) last week. Trend remains neutral. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to S&P 500 Index and Gold remains negative.

Palladium dropped $14.00 per ounce (1.86%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. PALL remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and Gold remains negative. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.





Copper slipped $0.02 per lb. (0.74%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The TSX Metals & Mining Index lost 20.56 points (2.74%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to negative from neutral. Technical score slipped to 1.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Lumber added $4.70 (1.61%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Lumber remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

The grain ETN fell $0.75 (2.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units fell below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive.





The Agriculture ETF slipped $0.11 (0.20%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 1.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Commodities: Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 12

<continued>




Interest Rates The yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 1.7 basis points (0.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

Price of the long term Treasury ETF added 0.37 (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Units remain below their 20 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.





Industry Sectors: Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 12th

Seasonal: Positive, Negative, or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts Trend: Up, Down, or Neutral Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative, or Neutral Momentum based on the average of Stochastics, RSI, and MACD: Up, Down, or Mixed Twenty-Day Moving Average: Above, or Below Green: Upgrade from last week Red: Downgrade from last week




Changes in Seasonal Ratings Mid-June frequently is an important seasonal reflection point for equity markets and sectors. Following are changes that will be reflected in tomorrow’s Tech Talk report:

The Bottom Line Evidence that world equity markets and most sectors entered into a corrective phase in mid-May continues to build. Protective equity strategies are preferred by traders that follow seasonal trends. Eventually, the correction will set the stage for a summer rally. For now, it’s time to reduce equity exposure.

<continued>




The Vix The VIX Index slipped 0.45 (3.17%) last week after reaching as high as 15.74% earlier in the week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average.

Other Issues The saga in Greece continues.





Intermediate technical indicators for most equity markets and sectors remain overbought and trending down. Conversely, short term technical indicators (mainly momentum indicators) for most equity markets and sectors are trending up.

The TSX Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average have a history of moving lower in the second half of June.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/indexes/%5eGSPTSE.PNG

http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/image117.png



Economic focus this week is on the FOMC meeting results to be released on Wednesday. Economic data released last week trended toward confirmation of a spring recovery in the U.S. economy. Data to be released this week is expected to show continuation of a recovery. The Fed’s comments likely will confirm the recovery, implying a likely first increase in the Fed Fund rate in September. In this case, good economic news is bad news for the stock market. History shows that equity markets struggle during the six month period prior to the first increase in the Fed Fund rate. Average decline per period by the S&P 500 Index during the past 13 occasions since 1946 is 10%. Following is a link to the study:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102488591

Earnings and sales by S&P 500 companies during the next two quarters remain a concern. According to FactSet, second quarter earnings on a year/year basis are expected to fall 4.6%, slightly more than last week’s consensus estimate of a 4.5% drop. The 4.6% decline is the largest quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2009. Consensus for year/year revenues in the second quarter is a drop of 4.4%. Consensus estimates for the third quarter are calling for a year/year decline of 0.8% by earnings and a 2.5% decline in revenues. Revenues are not slated to increase until the first quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, the U.S. earnings season is about to enter the “quiet period” when most companies will not comment on quarterly results unless they warn that results will be significantly less than consensus. In other words, consensus estimates for a decline in second quarter sales and earnings are about to be lowered further.

This Week’s Earnings

<continued>

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102488591




Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual

stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate

cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated

recently. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

^NBI Relative to the S&P 500

BW: Information on the Authors of Tech Talk follows on the next page.

http://www.equityclock.com/

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/indexes/%5eNBI.PNG

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/indexes/%5eNBI_RelativeToSPX.PNG



About the Authors

Don Vialoux

Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on equity markets, which is available free at TimingTheMarket.ca. The Web site has recently received an average of 200,000 hits per day from 130 countries. Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He holds the designation of Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Jon Vialoux

Jon Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a Research Analyst at Horizons Investment Management, Inc where he offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He is the author and founder of EquityClock.com, which offers the largest source of seasonal profiles for investments on the Internet. Mr. Vialoux is also co-creator of the financial resource Web site, TimingTheMarket.ca, which offers technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis of the markets. Jon’s market analysis and commentary has been published in the Financial Post, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, and a number of electronic media sources, such as SeekingAlpha.com and GlobeInvestor.com. He is also a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Previously, he provided analysis for State Street Global Advisors.

#####

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for

information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc. SEE: About the Authors, below. Security positions held or not held by Mr. Vialoux will be indicated at the end of each Tech Talk report. Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions. All charts in Tech Talk come from StockCharts.com. Stock Charts can be accessed at no cost through www.stockcharts.com.

http://www.stockcharts.com/

Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca June 15, 2015 · Tech Talk for Monday, June 15, 2015 Equity Trends...

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