Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca April 10, 2015...Tech Talk: Timing The Market eResearch Corporation ~...

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Technical Timing

eResearch Corporation is pleased to provide regular technical opinions on the market by Don

Vialoux of Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca.

Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket - Completely free. Professional and insightful opinions and

viewpoints on the market from a technical perspective. Includes charts and commentary.

Comments in Tech Talk reports are solely the opinion of Mr. Don Vialoux. Daily market letters

are accessible though DVTechTalk.com and TimingTheMarket.ca (see links below).

Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian

Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He holds the designation of Chartered Market

Technician (CMT).

Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions

held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on

equity markets, which is available free at TimingTheMarket.ca.

The website has recently received an average of 200,000 hits per day from 130 countries.

Links: http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/ AND http://dvtechtalk.com/

Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that

combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on

Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons

Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC).

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Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca April 10, 2015

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Tech Talk for Friday, April 10, 2015

Interesting Charts General Electric (GE $27.82) broke to a seven year high in overnight trading following news of a restructure.

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The TSX Composite Index reached a seven month high yesterday.

Commodity prices came under pressure on exceptional strength in the U.S. Dollar Index

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Yesterday’s Stock Twits Bullish setups on charts of Non-U.S. equity benchmarks suggest a profitable end to seasonal strength.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Breakouts: $FDO, $WBA, $ESRX, $ADSK, $SHW. Breakdown: $POM

iShares TSX Financials $XFN.CA broke to a 4 month high thanks to a breakout by RY.CA to a four month high




Editor’s Note: Ditto for the Horizons product!




Trader’s Corner Changes in technical parameters for sectors, equity indices, and commodities yesterday: Key: For the three charts that follow:

Seasonal: Positive, Negative, or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts

Trend: Up, Down, or Neutral

Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative, or Neutral

Momentum based on an average of Stochastics, RSI, and MACD: Up, Down, or Mixed

Green: Upgrade

Red: Downgrade

1. Sectors: Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 9th




2. Equity Markets: Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 9th

3. Commodities: Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodity Trends for April 9th




Technical Action by Individual Equities

After 10:15, technical action by S&P 500 stocks was quietly bullish. Breakouts: Aflac, Goldman Sachs, Wynn Resorts. Breakdown: Bed Bath & Beyond

Among TSX 60 stocks, breakouts included Royal Bank, Manulife and George Weston

Featured Commentary

INVESTMENT COMMENTARY Friday, April 10, 2015

TOP ASSET 5 CLASSES, SECTORS AND COUNTRY HEAT MAPPING

Since we last made a submission here, in these pages of the great work done by Don day-in, day-out, we have new monthly data to update with you. As discretionary managers who are primarily concerned with the intermediate term timeframe, monthly data is far more relevant to us because it shows persistence, it helps to mitigate the ever-changing business news cycle and the distraction that it is.

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Commentary

In the Asset Class rankings the top five did not change, however, their order ordering did. The NASDAQ dropped from 1st to 3rd; the US dollar and bonds moved up to 1st and 2nd. The S&P and the Russell remained in 4th and 5th.

In the TSX also, the top 5 did not change, just the ordering; tech and healthcare swapped spots.

In the S&P Internet and semiconductors fell out of the top 5 while consumer staples and consumer discretionary jump in from 9th and 6th places respectively.

In the country rankings Hong Kong moves into the top rankings and Japan drops out.

CHARTS of the WEEK

Treasuries

Bonds have had a large bounce back from early March lows. The US 20+yr Treasury bond ETF shown here has run into resistance and will likely test those short term lows. The street consensus is for rates to rise in June or September. However, the consensus has been wildly off the mark over the last 4 years when it comes to bonds. A break above 2.28% on the 10yr yield would catch our attention. Clients maintain 35% in long bonds in our asset allocation portfolios.




TSX Composite Index

The TSX has been in a sideways or base-building pattern since last July when energy broke down. We sold all our energy holdings in June/July last year and have recently begun to nibble back in the space. But we are not yet completely convinced that commodities are yet reflecting the optimism the market view is about global or even North American growth. A move above 15,400 on the TSX would be a catalyst and bring in an initial target of 16,700 or about 8.5%.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan

Potash is attempting to resume its uptrend after testing its 50 and 125 MA’s. Seasonal strength is strong through to early May then again in July (a mini run) and in October. The tug-o-war for market share and pricing power in the sector continues. We have a $54 target and hold this security across a couple different portfolio mandates. A move above $43 resumes the trend.




George Weston

George Weston, part of the consumer staples category, is well-bid and strong. With Shoppers’s numbers fully integrated with Loblaws (controlling shareholder of) the company’s cash flow and earnings bode well for further expansion. Weston’s does not have high volume, this making it more appropriate for longer term investors. We currently own it in our asset allocation mandate, target of $130.00

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index

The Chinese economy has had some issues over the last couple of years – housing and falling GDP in particular. That said, the People’s Bank of China (not sure it’s the “People’s Bank anymore) has lots of wiggle room with stimulus from bank reserve requirements to actually interest rate tools to stimulate growth. Based on these and the relative strength rankings on page 1 we currently hold a hedge and unhedged position in the Chinese market are looking for an opportunity to add to the holdings.




SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF

As readers will know we are fond of reminding anyone that healthcare is in a secular bull market that began in 2012. The strongest part of the space is the biotech subsector though most top tier pharmaceutical companies have a significant biotech division. A new upturn is at hand for healthcare.

If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link

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CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.

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This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.

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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual

stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate

cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated

recently. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment Following is a link: http://www.equityclock.com/2015/04/09/stock-market-outlook-for-april-10-2015/

Note comments on S&P 500 Index, Hang Seng Index and TSX Financials Index

BW: Information on the Authors of Tech Talk follows on the next page.

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About the Authors

Don Vialoux

Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on equity markets, which is available free at TimingTheMarket.ca. The Web site has recently received an average of 200,000 hits per day from 130 countries. Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He holds the designation of Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Jon Vialoux

Jon Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a Research Analyst at Horizons Investment Management, Inc where he offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He is the author and founder of EquityClock.com, which offers the largest source of seasonal profiles for investments on the Internet. Mr. Vialoux is also co-creator of the financial resource Web site, TimingTheMarket.ca, which offers technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis of the markets. Jon’s market analysis and commentary has been published in the Financial Post, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, and a number of electronic media sources, such as SeekingAlpha.com and GlobeInvestor.com. He is also a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Previously, he provided analysis for State Street Global Advisors.

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc. SEE: About the Authors, below. Security positions held or not held by Mr. Vialoux will be indicated at the end of each Tech Talk report. Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions. All charts in Tech Talk come from StockCharts.com. Stock Charts can be accessed at no cost through www.stockcharts.com.
http://www.stockcharts.com/

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