TEC Energy Risk Webinar Presentation
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Transcript of TEC Energy Risk Webinar Presentation
Energy Risk & the End of Coal?:What does the closing of coal fired power plants mean for baseload power?
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About Today’s Panel
Jim Pierobon is a career-long energy marketing communications pro who has created and managed marketing programs and campaigns for multi-national companies, trade associations, government agencies and non-profits at transformational stages of the growth. currently owns a networked marketing consultancy, Pierobon & Partners LLC, with colleagues in Houston, San Francisco and New York City. He blogs at TheEnergyFix.com.
Bradford Radimer is the Director, Risk Control at NRG Energy, Inc. with over 40 years of energy industry experience. At NRG, Brad is responsible for designing and managing enterprise wide risk policies, policy compliance and transaction confirmations. Brad is also Co-Leader of the team that wrote the CCRO Risk Management Standards for Energy Market Participants.
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Branko Terzic is currently Executive Director of Deloitte Center for EnergySolutions and the Regulatory Policy Leader in Energy & Resources for Deloitte Services LP. He is a member of the National Coal Council advisory body to the President. Commissioner on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and State of Wisconsin Public Service Commission.
Projected Capacity Retirements
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2012 Long-Term Reliability AssessmentPreliminary HighlightsCourtesy ofDave NeviusSenior Vice President, NERC
Manitoba (W)2021
MAPP (S)2020
MISO-US (S)2021
SaskPower (W)2014, 2016, 2020
Ontario IESO (S)2017
NORW (S)2019
BASN (S)2019
CALN (S)2018
ROCK (S)2018
Year when each Assessment Area’s projected Anticipated Reserve Margin falls below the NERC Reference Margin Level
ERCOT (S)2013
MEXW (S)2021
PJM (S)2020
AESO (S)2020
BC (W)2020
NERC Preliminary
NERC Preliminary 2013-2022 Capacity Outlook
Preliminary Data
Future-Planned Net Peak Capacity Change (Does not include Conceptual resources)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gig
awatt
s (G
W)
28%
5%
37%
11%
0% 19%
2013 Capacity Mix
26%
5%
38%
11%
0%20%
2022 Future-Planned Capacity Mix
Capacity Type Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Capacity Share of Total Planned ConceptualCoal 307,201 28.22% 290,496 25.85% 294,641 23.74% -16,705 -12,560Petroleum 52,410 4.81% 52,410 4.66% 52,377 4.22% 0 -33Gas 409,045 37.57% 427,165 38.02% 493,924 39.80% 18,120 84,878Nuclear 117,151 10.76% 124,225 11.06% 127,357 10.26% 7,074 10,206Other/Unknown 411 0.04% 5,850 0.52% 6,229 0.50% 5,438 5,818Renewables 202,546 18.60% 223,516 19.89% 266,448 21.47% 20,971 63,903TOTAL 1,088,764 100.00% 1,123,663 100.00% 1,240,977 100.00% 34,899 152,213
2013 Existing and Planned 2022 Planned 2022 Conceptual 10-Year Change
Gas and Renewables make up bulk of additions
10-Year Change
Deloitte’s Sixteen Cases to Infer Answers
High Gas Price
Low Gas Price
RPS w/REC
RPS w/REC
No RPS
No RPS
SO2, NOx, Hg CapNo CO2
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap
SO2, NOx, Hg Cap
No SO2, NOx, Hg
No SO2, NOx, Hg
No SO2, NOx, Hg
No SO2, NOx, Hg
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
CO2 Cap
No CO2
No CO2
No CO2
No CO2
No CO2
No CO2
No CO2
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Case 5
Case 6
Case 7
Case 8
Case 9
Case 10
Case 11
Case 12
Case 13
Case 14
Case 15
Case 16Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
Annual Power Generation (MWh) —Case 1 (“All In” Regulation)
0
1E+09
2E+09
3E+09
4E+09
5E+09
6E+09
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gen
erat
ion
(M
Wh
)
Year
ST
CT
CC
LS Coal
Nuclear
HS Coal
RN
FGD Coal
CCS
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
Annual Average Wholesale Electricity Price
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
Modeled with Deloitte MarketPoint Integrated Model Suite
Southwest / New Mexico
Central Appalachia
Illinois
Basin
Gulf Coast / TX
Fort Union
Green River Basin
Northwest
Southern Appalachia
Prairie Canada
Uinta Basin
SPRB
NPRB
Northern
Appalachia / Pittsburg #8
Central Interior
WECCPac NW
WECCCOB
WECCIdaho
WECCN Nevada
WECCMontana
WECCColorado
WECCWyoming
WECCUtah
WECCBrit Col WECCAlberta
MAPPCanada
WECC S Nevada
NewMexicoWECCArizona
WECCBay CA
WECCS CA
WECCCMB
WECN CA
WECCCtrl CA
MAPPUS -EastMAPPUS -West
MAPPUS -South
SPPNorth
ERCOTGulf
ERCOTSouth
ERCOTWest
SPPSouth
ERCOTCentral
ERCOTNorth
FRCCSouth
EntergyNorth
EntergyCentral
EntergySouth
MAINWUM
FRCCNorth
MAINNIL
MAINSOM
NEPOOLNortheast
NPCCCanada EastNPCCQuebec
NPCCOntario
NEPOOLSouthwest
NYPPNorth
NYPPWest NYPPSouthECARMichigan
ECAREastECARWest
MAACWestMAACEast
MAACSouth
VACARNorth
VACARCentral
VACARSouth
SouthernEast
SouthernWest
SouthernCentral
TVAWest
TVANorth/South
TVAEast
The four entitlement hubs
Western Canada
EOR
Pacific NW
PGE
SCGSDGE
Huntingdon
WNC+ Mtn
Kingsgate Monchy Emerson
ESCS. Atlantic
WSC
NE
E. Canada
Ontario
Mid Atlantic
Niagara
Iroquois
Off-Shore
Atlantic
Midwest
Permian Basin
Alberta
Gulf Coast
N. Great PlainsRocky
Mtns
Pac. NW
ENC
Mexico
Anadarko
North American Gas
World Gas
San JuanSo.Cal
Eastern Canada
Appalachia
N. Cal
Saskatchewan
British Columbia
British Columbia
North American Coal
NOx SOx CO2 Hg
NOx SOx CO2 Hg
North American Electric and Emissions
Latin America
AustraliaAfrica
Middle East Mainland
Asia
Pacific RimNorth
AmericaEurope
FSU
Copyright © 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved
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