Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
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Transcript of Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
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© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive DirectorMr. Bo Diczfalusy, DirectorPresentation to Press June 11 2012
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ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
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Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
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Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
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A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
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A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
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2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
TW
h
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2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 500
5 000
7 500
OECD China India Other non-OECD
Po
we
r G
en
era
tion
fro
m N
atu
ral G
as
TW
hNatural Gas: a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
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The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt C
O2
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000Other industries
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
2 DS
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
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Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (
mill
ion)
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
mill
ion
sa
les/
yea
rTranslating targets into action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Manufacturers production/sales
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
mill
ion
sa
les/
yea
rTranslating targets into action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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Space heating22%
Water heating12%
Cooking15%
Cooling and ventilation5%Lighting
5%
Appliances10%
Space heating, 7%
Water heating, 2%
Cooling and ventilation, 3%
Lighting, 3%
Other15%
Total energy savings 33 EJ
Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Services
Residential
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector
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2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
Billi
on h
ouse
hold
s Building sector challenges differ
OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
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2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
Billi
on h
ouse
hold
s Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
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Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
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Emissions must be eliminated by 2075
© OECD/IEA 2012
A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.
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10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Total
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Additional invest-ment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
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10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
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10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Total
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
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© OECD/IEA 2012
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