Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
-
Upload
international-energy-agency -
Category
Technology
-
view
935 -
download
3
description
Transcript of Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director
Mr. Bo Diczfalusy, Director
Paris, June 11 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
TWh
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erat
ion
shar
e
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Wind and solar must grow quickly
An additional USD 1.2 trillion are needed in the EU power sector, but fuel savings amount to USD 2.7 trillion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Coal with CCS
Gas with CCS
Biomass
Wind, onshore
Wind, offshore
PV
CSP
Nuclear
Hydro
GW per year
2020-50
2010-20
2006-10
All flexibility sources will be needed
Dispatchable power plants
Energy storage facilities
Interconnection with adjacent
markets
Biomass-fired power plant
Pumped hydro facility
Scandinavian interconnections
Demand side Response
(via smart grid)
Industrial
residential
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Pow
er G
ener
atio
n fro
m N
atur
al G
as
TWh
OECD China India Other non-OECD
Natural Gas: a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt C
O2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
6DS
Other industries
Chemicals and petrochemicals Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (m
illio
n)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
mill
ion
sale
s/ye
ar
Manufacturers production/sales
Projection (Estimated from each country's target)
Translating targets into action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Space heating 22%
Water heating 12%
Cooking 15%
Cooling and ventilation 5% Lighting
6%
Appliances 10%
Space heating, 7%
Water heating, 2%
Cooling and ventilation, 3%
Lighting, 3%
Other 15%
Total energy savings 33 EJ
Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Services
Residential
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Billi
on h
ouse
hold
s Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
Emissions must be eliminated by 2075
© OECD/IEA 2012
A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without price effect
With price effect
Additional investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fu
el s
avin
gs
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
www.iea.org/etp
For much more, please visit