Taipei May08 Samarajiva
Transcript of Taipei May08 Samarajiva
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
1/39
Asia at the leading edge of communicationand new media developments?
Rohan Samarajiva, LIRNEasia
International Conference on Information, Communication and New Media & the First Annual
Convention of the Information and Communication Association of Taiwan, May 17, 2008
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
2/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Agenda
Asias challenges (and opportunities)
Access at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) inselected countries of emerging Asia
Internet?
An alternative path to the information society
Innovations needed for the alternative path
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
3/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Which Asia?
Taiwan ROC, Republic of Korea, Singapore . . .
OR
Burma (Myanmar); DPR Korea; Nepal . . .
The Asia that manufactures most of the worlds laptops,semi-conductor chips . . .
OR The Asia that is barely a blip in the information society
map . . .
The Asia that is developed . .
OR
The Asia that still contains the worlds largestconcentration of poor people . .
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
4/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Workhorse of the information economy
drivers seat . . .
Solve the hardest problem: getting the poorestmillions connected to the Information Society
Convert Asias biggest weakness to an advantage This will potentially unlock many markets and drive the
entire Asian economy to a new level
Innovation at multiple levels needed
Business models to connect large numbers of poorpeople to electronic networks; extend from mobile tobroadband
Technical solutions to make it possible for them to domore-than-voice once connected
More-than-telecom solutions to problem of puttingmoney in peoples pockets through telecom, ratherthan taking money out
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
5/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Connecting the millions at the bottomof the pyramid. .
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
6/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
WSIS definition of Information Society
a people centered, inclusive, and development-oriented
information society where everyone can create,
access, utilize and share information andknowledge enabling individuals and communities toachieve their full potential in promoting their sustainabledevelopment and improving their quality of life.
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
7/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
In other words . . .
Everyone should be able to do what we doroutinely using the hybrid medium known as the
Internet Communicate in multiple forms
synchronous/asynchronous
One-to-one/one-to-many/many-to-many
Push/pull . . .
Retrieve information from multitude of sources
Publish
Transact
Remotely compute . . .
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
8/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Answers from LIRNEasias Teleuse @ Bottom of the
Pyramid (T@BOP) research (2006)
Five countries Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Philippines
Thailand 9,000 sample
Design and analysis by LIRNEasia;
fieldwork by AC Nielsen
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
9/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) = SEC D & E
BOP defined as SEC D and E; betweenages 18-60
SEC determined by education and
occupation of CWE; closely related toincome levels
BOP sample is representative of the BOPpopulation Diary respondents also representative of
BOP
Small (non-representative) sample takenof SEC groups A, B & C,middle and topof pyramid
SEC D & E
SEC A, B & C
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
10/39
ww
w.l
irneasia.net
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Use the Internet 1.9% 0.3% 1.5% 8.8% 10.4%
Internet use
3%
0%
2%
12%
14%
1%0%
1%
6%
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philiphines Thailand
%a
tBOP
Male
Female
Large genderdivide, even inSouth East Asia
Internet at the BOP
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
11/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Have not heard about the Internet before
36%
72%
29%
14%
36%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
%a
tthe
BOP
what Internet??
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
12/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Will we ever get there? . . .
But there is an alternative path . . .
Access = mobile?
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
13/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Access through the phone is surprisingly high . . .
South Asia South East Asia
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Used phone inlast 3 months
98% 94% 92% 93% 95%
Most people approached for survey (BOP and other) hadused a phone in the last 3 months
Half the worlds population has not made a phone call was wrong when Kofi Annansaid it in 1999; absolutely wrong now
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
14/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Ownership and GDP per capita (USD, PPP)
23%
9%
22%
60%
11%
23%
7%
14%
64%
81%
59%
38%
23%
76%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
%a
tbottom
ofpyramid
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
GDPpercapita,
USD(PPP)
Own a mobile Own a fixed phone (household)
Own nothing (but use something) Per Capita GDP PPP (USD)
Ownership is not as high . . .
Especially in South Asia
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
15/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
What are the prerequisites for more-than-voice mobile?
Familiarity with the technology
Access and use
Easy access via mobiles or CDMA fixed phones is mostappropriate
Sophisticated handsets can aid uptake
Ownership
Current Only 30% own a phone
Majority prepaid
Mobile users using SMS
Future?
Majority of new connections will be mobile
Affordability is a barrier among the un-connected
Payment systems in place
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
16/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Easy access needed for more-than-voice with mobile
Easy access provided by ownership is important Unlikely that public/shared phones will be used for anything other
than basic voice Access for more-than-voice, in order of importance
Own mobile
Other household members mobile
CDMA fixed phone
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
17/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Most frequently used mode
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%at
BOP
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Also note that 12% in PK,4% in IN & 6% in LK usethe mobile of another
household member
Fixedphones at SAsia BOPare mostlyCDMA;Mimic GSMfeatures.
Public phone
Relative / friend's phone
Neighbours phone
Mobile of another householdmember
Household fixed phone
Own mobile
back
Accesswithinhouse
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
18/39
ww
w.l
irne
asia.net
Average price paid for handset > USD70: Sophisticated
handsets?
60-70% of mobile owners at BOP use brand-new handsets
Average price paid for mobile handsets: brand new & second-hand
USD 0
USD 20
USD 40
USD 60
USD 80
USD 100
USD 120
USD 140
USD 160
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Averagepricepaid
ave. price paid for brand new ave.price paid for second hand
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
19/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Payment systems in place for more-than-voice
applications
For example, Sri Lankas largest GSM operator (~ 3.6 millionsubscribers, 2007):
86% prepaid subscribers, overall
Approx. 50% of prepaid top-ups are via electronic reload(50% via card system)
12,000+ electronic reload outlets
Mobile payment system launched in S Asia in 2007 Philippines is the world leader
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Pre Paid 99% 95% 92% 99% 96%
Post Paid 1% 4% 8% 1% 4%
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
20/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Evidence of other applications
A key advantage of a phone, as seen by participants, is itsability to promote democratic participation. The examplepresented was a reality TV show . . . to select aSuper
Star. . . based on the SMS/phone voting by the public. .. . Study participants viewed this as a case of telecomenabling the unheard to voice their opinion. . . . They feltthat their voice was heard; that they have been elevated
from the level of mere observers to that of activeparticipants in democratic processes. . . . None of themcomplained of having to pay five times the regular cost ofan SMS to place their votes.Focus group on phone use in Sri Lanka, reference to an American Idol
type show
back
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
21/39
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
22/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Optimizing revenues from subscribers
optimizing revenues from minutes
Analogy: airline business models
Model A: conservative, based on 55% fillfactor, which will cover both fixed andvariable costs (capex and opex)
Model B: more risky, where at 65% variable
costs would be covered, at 75% fixed costswould also be covered and everything abovethat is pure profit
Model B: Budget airlines
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
23/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Budget telecom networks
By dramatically dropping prices (and totalcost of ownership), budget telcos have Added minutes (and usage) from the top of pyramid
Added large numbers of low-volume users from theBOP (exploiting the long-tail)
Thereby increasing fill factors on their networks, wherecosts are, for the most part, static with added minutes
Resulting in
Low prices
High profits
Patchy quality of service
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
24/39
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
25/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Revenues and profitability of budget telcos in S Asia
Revenues(USD)
EBITDA (USD) EBITDA margin(%)
Bangladesh 655,900,000 344,500,000 53
Sri Lanka 259,041,928 124,833,464 48
India 26,723,674,194 9,938,340,523 37
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
26/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Technical solutions that need to bemade for mobile more-than-voice . . .
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
27/39
www.l
irne
asia.net
Handsets
Lower costs
Higher functionalities
Voice interfaces Trust-building features
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
28/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Network equipment
Design of 3G networks to give decent QOS with high loadfactors
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
29/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Web interfaces
Optimized for mobile not conventional Internet access
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
30/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Social science has a major role to play
Everyone wants to understand the enduser
Handset designers Network designers
Service designers
Who will tell them? LIRNEasia quantitative research
Nokia, Telenor qualitative research
Where are the universities U of Salzburg, usability labs
???
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
31/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Putting money in users pockets, not taking from . . .
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
32/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Efficiency of daily activities, as seen at the BOP
BOP in all countries sees efficiency
Efficiency of daily activities
1 2 3 4 5
India (3.90)
Sri Lanka (3.98)
Pakistan (4.17)Thailand
(4.37)
Philippine
s (4.40)
worsened slightly
worsened
no change somewhat
improved
improved
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
33/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Efficiency income benefit?
Indian & Filipino BOP see economic benefit
Ability to earn or save
1 2 3 4 5
Sri Lanka (3.19)
Thailand (3.56)
Pakistan (3.80) India (3.97)
Philippines
(4.07)
worsened slightly
worsened
no change somewhat
improved
improved
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
34/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Seen both in services and agriculture
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Agriculture /
Farming
Employed in
an office
Labourer /
Industrialw orker
Trader / Self
Employed
Employed in
servicesector
%
ofownerswho'sabilitytoearnorsaveha
improved India
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Saving travel time and costs, checking price information,sale of minutes?Saving travel time and costs, checking price information,sale of minutes?
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
35/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
But, sense of security is main perceived benefit
Ability to act in an emergency is key
Ability to act in emergency
1 2 3 4 5
India (4.28)
Pakistan (4.48)
Sri Lanka (4.58)
Philippines (4.63)
Thailand(4.83)
worsened slightly no change somewhat improved
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
36/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Keeping in touch is important
Family and social relations
1 2 3 4 5
India (4.14)
Pakistan (4.30)
Sri Lanka (4.35)
Philippines (4.45)
Thailand(4.66)
worsened slightly
worsened
no change somewhat
improved
improved
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
37/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Social status and recognition improves in all countries exceptLK
Social status and recognition
1 2 3 4 5
Sri Lanka(3.47)
India
(4.03)
Pakistan
(4.05)
Thailand
(4.28)
Philippines
(4.29)
worsened slightly
worsened
no change somewhat
improved
improved
`
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
38/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
Need innovations in making/saving money from
ICTs
Agricultural information
Our research shows the key interventions should be at
Selling stage (market information in real time) Decision stage (ability to tell what the prices will be at
harvest time)
M-payments
Reduce transaction costs for migrant workers
Reduce expensive cash use
Transportation
Help in cutting travel time and costs
More . . . ?
-
8/14/2019 Taipei May08 Samarajiva
39/39
www.l
irne
asia.ne
t
www.lirneasia.net
Rohan Samarajiva, [email protected]