[Table MainInfo][Table Title] 2019-05-31...[Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 2003 2017...
Transcript of [Table MainInfo][Table Title] 2019-05-31...[Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 2003 2017...
[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title]
/
[Table_Summary] 2003
2017 2018
2018
2011 3.04 2018
14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011
0.44 2018 2.92 CAGR 31%
764 1500 2000
2019 5 18
Tommy Hilfiger
Tommy Hilf iger
2019 2020 29 42 23 79
42 07 31 09 2019
21 01
[Table_Finance] 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
1,054 1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839
(+/-)% 25.23% 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%
180 292 415 544 690
(+/-)% 35.92% 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%
0.99 1.61 2.29 3.00 3.81
60.56 20.72 21.01 16.03 12.63
7.57 3.72 4.27 3.37 2.66
(%) 12.49% 17.95% 20.32% 21.03% 21.06%
(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
( ) 107 181 181 181 181
[Table_Invest]
[Table_Market] 2019/5/27
6 68.7
43.54
12 25.51 76.20
7,896
181
A 181
B /H 0/0
1
[Table_PicQuote]
-36%
-25%
-14%
-3%
8%
19%
2018/5 2018/8 2018/11 2019/2
[Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M
-8% 16% 4%
-1% 17% 9%
[Table_Report]
002832
& --20190423
002832
--20180903
[Table_Author]
S0550515060001
S0550118080038
(021)20363236 [email protected]
002832 /
2019-05-31
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1. ............. 5
1.1. ...................................5
1.2. ...................................................................................................6
1.3. ...................................................7
1.4. ...............................................................................7
2. .......................... 9
2.1. ...............................................................................9
2.2. ......................................................... 11
2.3. .....................................................................................................12
2.4. .........................................14
3. .............. 15
3.1. .....................................15
3.2. .........................................16
3.2.1. ........................................................................... 16
3.2.2. .................................................................................. 17
3.2.3. Ralph Lauren ...................................... 18
3.2.4. Tommy Hilf iger ............................................................................... 20
3.3. FILA ...................................................................21
4. ............................................................................................. 23
5. .......................................................................... 25
6. ............................................................................................. 27
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1 .............................................................................................................. 5
2 .............................................................................................................. 7
3 .......................................................................................................... 8
4 1% ...................................................................................................... 8
5 ............................................................................................................................... 9
6 .............................................................................. 9
7 ................................................................................................................ 10
8 .................................................................................................................... 11
9 .................................................................................................................... 11
10 .............................................................................................................. 12
11 ................................................................................................... 13
12 .............................................................................................................. 17
13 ........................................................................................................................... 21
14 .................................................................................................. 25
15 .......................................................................................................... 26
1 ...................................................................................................................... 5
2 .......................................................................................................................... 6
3 ............................................................................................................................... 6
4 ............................................................................................................................... 6
5 .................................................................................................. 6
6 .................................................................................................. 6
7 .............................................................................................. 6
8 .............................................................................................................. 8
9 ...................................................................................................................... 9
10 ........................................................................................................ 9
11 ............................................................................................... 10
12 .......................................................................................................... 10
13 VIP ................................................................................. 11
14 .............................................................................................................. 11
15 .................................................................................................. 11
16 .......................................................................................................... 11
17 .......................................................................................................... 13
18 .......................................................................................... 14
19 2018 ................................................................................................. 14
20 ...................................................................................................... 15
21 ...................................................................................................... 15
22 .............................................................................. 15
23 .................................................................................. 15
24 .......................................................................................... 16
25 .................................................................... 16
26 ...................................................................................................................... 17
27 .............................................................................................. 18
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28 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................. 18
29 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................................. 19
30 POLO ...................................................................................................................... 19
31 Ralph Lauren ......................................................................................................... 19
32 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................. 19
33 Ralph Lauren ................................................................. 20
34 2017-2019 Ralph Lauren .................................................. 20
35 .................................................................................................................. 21
36 Tommy Hilfiger ..................................................................... 21
37 Tommy Hilfiger ..................................................................... 21
38 .............................................................................................. 22
39 .............................................................................................. 22
40 FILA ............................................................................ 22
41 .......................................................................................... 23
42 ...................................................................................... 23
43 ...................................................................................................... 23
44 ...................................................................................................... 23
45 .......................................................................................................... 24
46 .......................................................................................................... 24
47 .................................................................................................................. 24
48 ROE ................................................................................................ 24
49 ...................................................................................... 24
50 ...................................................................................... 25
1.
1.1.
2003 16
2017 2018
1
2018
1953
1
1000 2000 2000 5000 1000 2000 400 1000
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Wind
2 3
4 5
1.2. 2011 3.04 2018
14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011 0.44 2018
2.92 CAGR 31% 2016 12
2019 Q1, 27.37% 52.91%
6 7
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Wind Wind
1.3.
30
2018
2
2007 10 ( )
2012 2 ,
1.4. 2018
41.25%
45%
7.5%,
52.75%
3.75% 1.5%
17.37%
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8
Wind
2018 1 31
2018 12 4
5000 -1 42 /
238.10 1.31%
36
2019 4 18
42 / 70 /
2019 5 10 1,862,947 1.0273%
3
2018 1 31
2019 1 30
287.8 9997.7
1.59%
59.05 /
34.74 /
Wind
4 1%
2019 5 10 186.3 677.5 1.0273% 59.05 / 30.30 /
Wind
2019 5 30
1 900 2294
40% 600 24
12 2019 5 10 0.68
1862947 36.37 /
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2.
2.1.
1:1.2
2018 12 31 31
764 112
1500 2000
9 10
Wind
5
2017
2018
2018 112 764 17 18
40 20
6
2015 2016 2017 2018
753.61 842.01 1,054.43 1,475.75
yoy 16.00% 11.73% 25.23% 39.96%
601 602 652 764
42 1 50 112
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1.25 1.40 1.62 1.93
7.89% 11.54% 15.62% 19.44%
2019 5 18
60% 40%
11 12
7
T POLO T
POLO T
VIP 60%-70% VIP
VIP
VIP VIP
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13 VIP 14
2.2.
15 16
2015
9% 3.5%
8
2015 147 9.48% 2677.26 3.55%
2016 150 9.15% 3146.07 3.74%
2017 168 9.27% 4087.88 3.88%
2018 173 7.54% 4967.31 3.37%
Wind
9
2011
2012 2011 2012
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2012 2011 2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2018
2018 2020
2018
47
30
10
Paul Rees
1997
2000 Burberry
2007
2008 Golfino
1999
1991 NON-NO
2000 Wolsey
2007
2007 SAMSUNG
2008 LG FASHION
2016 E-LAND
2017 GY goldlion
2.3.
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17
11
Logo
1858
2010 500 196
80 152
7 500 3
BURBURRY LANVIN GUCCI
1925
HERMES BOSS CANALI
POLARTEC 1906
100
NORRONA MAMMUT lululemon ARCTERYX
1959
GORE-TEX
1981
ARCTERYX Woolrich HAGLOFS visvim MAMMUT
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LEGGIUNO 1908
3500 1500
1926
20
2010 229
-
PUMA Mizuno Callaway
2.4. 2018
18 19 2018
2013
2016
2018 8
2 2
11
2013
2020
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20 21
2018
8
T 1 100
22 23
3.
3.1.
2018
600 167
2023 241
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24 25
2019 2019
3.2. 3.2.1.
18 18
100mph 140mph
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26
3.2.2.
2018 T 2019
12
Wolsey
Jack Nicklaus
Ashworth
Munsingwear
Callaway
Taylormade
Polo Ralph Lauren
LACOSTE
Brooks Brothers
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27
3.2.3. Ralph Lauren
1967 Ralph Lauren
"POLO RALPH LAUREN
35 200-400
500-1000
Ralph Lauren Ralph
Lauren
50 Ralph Lauren
Ralph Lauren Luxury
Polo Ralph Lauren Club Monaco
28 Ralph Lauren
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29 Ralph Lauren
30 POLO 31 Ralph Lauren
32 Ralph Lauren
Wind
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33 Ralph Lauren
Wind
34 2017-2019 Ralph Lauren
Wind
3.2.4. Tommy Hilfiger
1985 Tommy Hilf iger Hilf iger
Tommy Hilfiger
25 45
1985 Tommy Hilfiger
46
1997
1000
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35
36 Tommy Hilfiger 37 Tommy Hilfiger
13
T POLO
800-5000 1000-5000 1000-3000 600-5000 1000-2500
Ralph Lauren 500-1000 1000-2000 1500-8000 700-3000 1500-3000
TOMMY HILFIGER 500-1000 500-1500 1000-7000 700-3000 300-2500
3.3. FILA 55.39
10.8% 5.13 12.3%
2012-2018
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38 39
FILA + FILA 1911
2009 FILA
FILA 25 45
FILA RED FILA WHITE FILA BLUE FILA ORIGINALE
2009
FILA 2010-2018
29.39%
40 FILA
Wind
FILA
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4.
60%
6 15%
41 42
Wind Wind
30%
50%
43 44
Wind Wind
;
2017
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45 46
Wind Wind
47
Wind
ROE ROE= * /(1- )
ROE
48 ROE 49
Wind Wind
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50
Wind
5.
1 2018
764 120 100 100 2021
1084 2018 1500-2000
2 2014-2018
2016 1
11.54% 2018 2018 112
764 17 18 40 20
14
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
567.28 649.68 753.61 842.01 1,054.43 1,475.75
yoy
14.53% 16.00% 11.73% 25.23% 39.96%
520 559 601 602 652 764
1.09 1.16 1.25 1.40 1.62 1.93
yoy
6.54% 7.89% 11.54% 15.62% 19.44%
39 42 1 50 112
yoy
7.50% 7.51% 0.17% 8.31% 17.18%
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3
2019-2020 29.42% 23.79% 42.07%
31.09% 2019 PE 18.7X
15
2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
1,054 1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839
(+/-)% 25.23% 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%
180 292 415 544 690
(+/-)% 35.92% 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%
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6.
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[Table_Forcast] 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
543 962 1,424 2,032 292 415 544 690
60 60 60 60 14 19 24 28
104 99 122 148 38 0 0 0
622 603 744 864 0 0 0 0
483 540 574 616 0 0 0 0
1,813 2,263 2,924 3,720 -14 0 0 0
10 10 10 10 -158 -16 -106 -110
0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0
9 9 9 9 171 418 462 608
112 112 112 112 -216 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 -136 0 0 0
307 307 307 307 381 412 621 760
2,119 2,570 3,230 4,027
0 0 0 0 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
158 95 123 146
181 245 307 364 1.61 2.29 3.00 3.81
0 0 0 0 8.98 11.27 14.27 18.08
479 515 631 737 0.94 2.31 2.55 3.36
0 0 0 0
11 11 11 11 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%
11 11 11 11 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%
490 526 642 748
1,628 2,043 2,588 3,278 63.28% 63.71% 64.19% 65.23%
1 1 1 1 19.80% 21.74% 23.02% 24.32%
2,119 2,570 3,230 4,027
19.55 18.88 18.90 19.00
2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 327.06 317.45 320.65 319.58
1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839
542 693 847 987 23.13% 20.46% 19.86% 18.57%
15 20 24 29 3.78 4.40 4.63 5.05
14 19 24 28 2.28 2.94 3.18 3.60
438 535 650 781
108 117 137 159 29.67% 28.00% 27.50% 27.50%
-7 -19 -30 -43
7.31% 6.10% 5.80% 5.60%
0 0 0 0 -0.49% -0.99% -1.26% -1.52%
14 0 0 0
337 488 640 812 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
344 488 640 812
51 73 96 122 P/E 20.72 21.01 16.03 12.63
292 415 544 690 P/B 3.72 4.27 3.37 2.66
292 415 544 690 P/S 5.91 4.57 3.69 3.07
0 0 0 0 17.95% 20.32% 21.03% 21.06%
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7
“ ”
R3 A B
AA ABS
“ ”
6 15%
6 5% 15%
6 -5% 5%
6 5% 15%
6 15%
6
6
6
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