Systems Thinkingin sustainability, projects and communication

Sustainable Development: Project Management & Communication September 12, 2012

Systems Thinking

Systems thinking is the process of understanding how things influence one another within a whole. (Wikipedia)

Systems thinking is a way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a system's parts, rather than the parts themselves. (Pegasus Commnunications)

Intuition & Analysis

Right brain & Left brain

Complexity & Simplicity

Structure & Behavior

System

a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever – interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern or behavior over time. (Meadows, 2008)

a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent components that form a complex and unified whole. (Pegasus Communications)

an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts. (www.systems-thinking.org)

Aim

Using systems thinking to manage and communicate projects that contribute to a

sustainable development

System

1610s, "the whole creation, the universe," from L.L. systema "an arrangement, system," from Gk. systema "organized whole, body,"

Think

O.E. þencan "conceive in the mind, think, consider, intend" (past tense þohte, p.p. geþoht), probably originally "cause to appear to oneself,"

Sustainable

1610s, "bearable," from sustain + -able. Attested from 1845 in the sense "defensible;" from 1965 with the meaning "capable of being continued at a certain level."

Development

1756, "an unfolding;" see develop + -ment. Of property, with the sense "bringing out the latent possibilities," from 1885. Meaning "state of economic advancement" is from 1902. Meaning "advancement through progressive stages" is 1836.

Project

c.1400, "a plan, draft, scheme," from L. projectum "something thrown forth," noun use of neuter of projectus, pp. of projicere "stretch out, throw forth," from pro- "forward" (see pro-) + combining form of iacere (pp. iactus) "to throw" (see jet (v.)). Meaning "scheme, proposal, mental plan" is from c.1600.

Manage

1560s, probably from It. maneggiare "to handle," especially "to control a horse," ultimately from Latin noun manus "hand" (seemanual (adj.)). Influenced by Fr. manège "horsemanship" (earliest English sense was of handling horses), which also was from Italian. Extended to other objects or business from 1570s.

Communication

late 14c., from O.Fr. comunicacion (14c., Mod.Fr. communication), from L. communicationem (nom. communicatio), noun of action from communicare "to share, divide out; communicate, impart, inform; join, unite, participate in," lit. "to make common," fromcommunis (see common)

Aim - rephrased

Causing organized whole bodies to appear to oneself, in order to handle, and make

common, something thrown forth that contributes to a bearable unfolding.

Exercise: Paper Tear

Ways of explaining reality

Ways of explaining reality

Ways of explaining reality

Events

Patterns, Trends

Systemic Structures

Mental Models

What just happened?

What’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?

What are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?

What about our thinking allows this situation to persist?

Ways of explaining Ways of explaining realityreality

Events

Patterns, Trends

Systemic Structures

Mental Models

Drought

Declining Water Table

IrrigatedLands

ExpectedProfitability

Profitabilityfrom Irrigated

Lands

WaterDemand

WaterExcess/ Shortage

Surface WaterAvailability

+

-+

Pumping

External WaterResources

+

+

+

++

Pressure formore Water

-

Water in LocalAquifers

-

+

Planned Increaseof Water Resources

+

DamsDivertions +

+

+

+

+

PiezometricLevels

+

SeawaterIntrusion

-

Salinization ofAquifers

+

Water SupplyUnit Cost

- ++-

Available Areafor New

Irrigated Lands

-

+

-

B1

B2

Expand ifWater Available

Expand ifLand Available

B3

Water from Pumping

B4

Water fromDivertions

B5

Water fromReservoirs

B6

Costs Escalation

R6

Water Supply ExpectationsDrive Irrigation Development

NaturalVegetation

+

• One cause produces one effect. There must be a single cause, for example, of acid rain, or cancer, or the greenhouse effect. All we need to do is discover and remove it.

• All growth is good—and possible. There are no effective limits to growth.

• Technology can solve any problem that comes up.

• The future is to be predicted, not chosen or created. It happens to us; we do not shape it.

• A problem does not exist or is not serious until it can be measured.

””Without changing our patterns of Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our the problems we created with our patterns of thought”patterns of thought”

Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein

Mental Models – Patterns of Mental Models – Patterns of ThoughtThought

””Our life is what our thoughts make it”Our life is what our thoughts make it”Marcus Aurelius, Marcus Aurelius,

MeditationsMeditations

Color

Furniture

Tool

ISIS

INDICATORS (I)Definition

An indicator quantifies and simplifies phenomena and helps us understand complex realities. Indicators are aggregates of raw and processed data but they can be further aggregated to form complex indices.

(International Institute for sustainable development)

An indicator can be defined as something that helps us to understand where we are, where we are going and how far we are from the goal. Therefore it can be a sign, a number, a graphic and so on. It must be a clue, a symptom, a pointer to something that is changing. Indicators are presentations of measurements. They are bits of information that summarize the characteristics of systems or highlight what is happening in a system.

To interpret indicators

Ideal

Collapse

OK

past present

WHAT SYSTEM?

• Sweden• Uppsala• Uppsala University• The Geosciences building• CEMUS• Other?

System

a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever – interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern or behavior over time. (Meadows, 2008)

a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent components that form a complex and unified whole. (Pegasus Communications)

an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts. (www.systems-thinking.org)

• Nature: all of our natural ecological systems and environmental concerns, from ecosystem health to resource consumption and waste.

• Economy: The system by which we use nature, together with our own work and ideas, into goods, services, money and jobs.

• Society: The institutions and structures that organize our collective life as human beings, from government agencies to school clubs, as well as the cultural values that underpin them.

• Wellbeing: Individual health, happiness and quality of life, which also includes the health and hapiness of our families and others close to us, and our relationships to them.

Systems (S)•Sources, Stocks, Sinks and flows•Feedback•Delay•Non-linear effects•Thresholds•Positive and negative casual relationships

Conceptual ModelingConceptual Modeling• Words• Pictures• Diagrams

If A then B

A

B

C

D

Cause and EffectCause and EffectTypical approachTypical approach

Systems approachSystems approach

The term ’feedback’ has come to serve as a euphemism for critizing others, as in ’the boss gave me feedback on my presentation’. This use of ’feedback’ is not what we mean in systems dynamics. Further ’positive feedback’ does not mean ’praise’ and ’negative feedback’ does not mean ’criticism’. Positive feedback denotes a self-reinforcing process, and negative feedback denotes a self-correcting (balancing) one. Either type can be good or bad, depending on which way it is operating and of course your values.

John Sterman

Positive and negative causation?

If A goes up, then B goes up

If A goes down then B goes down

If A goes up, then B goes down

If A goes down, then B goes up

Exercise: Living Loops

Causal Loop DiagramCausal Loop Diagram

Causal -Causal -

refers to cause-and-effect refers to cause-and-effect relationshiprelationship

Loop -Loop -

refers to refers to closed chainclosed chain of cause and of cause and effecteffect

Casual Loop Diagrams

A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a diagram that helps you visualize and understand how the different key parts and elements in a complex system interact.

Causal Loop Diagram Notation

Birth Rate Population Death Rate

Fractional BirthRate

AverageLifetime

+ -

+ +-+

R B

Variable1 Variable2

+Link Polarity

Causal Link

R

B

+

-

or

or

Loop identifiers:

Positive (Reinforcing) Loop

Negative (Balancing) Loop

Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation

Correlations do not represent the structure of the Correlations do not represent the structure of the system. system.

Causal diagrams must include only Causal diagrams must include only (what you believe to be) genuine causal (what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.relationships.

Ice CreamSales

MurderRate

+

Incorrect

Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation

Correlations do not represent the structure of the Correlations do not represent the structure of the system. system.

Causal diagrams must include only Causal diagrams must include only (what you believe to be) genuine causal (what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.relationships.

Ice CreamSales

MurderRate

+

Incorrect

Ice CreamSales

MurderRate

Correct

AverageTemperature

+ +

Causation versus CorrelationCausation versus Correlation

Correlations do not represent the structure of the Correlations do not represent the structure of the system. system.

Causal diagrams must include only Causal diagrams must include only (what you believe to be) genuine causal (what you believe to be) genuine causal relationships.relationships.

Ice CreamSales

MurderRate

+

Incorrect

Ice CreamSales

MurderRate

Correct

AverageTemperature

+ +

• Does vitamin C cure the common cold?• Can eating oat bran reduce cholesterol, and if it does, will

your risk of a heart attack drop?• Does economic growth lead to lower birth rate?

Costs Price

++

CorrectIncorrect

Costs Rise Price Rises

A causal diagram captures the structure of the system, not its A causal diagram captures the structure of the system, not its behaviorbehavior

Variable names should be nouns or noun phrasesVariable names should be nouns or noun phrases

Avoid verbs and action phrases since the action is conveyed in the arrows.Avoid verbs and action phrases since the action is conveyed in the arrows.

Exampel: Sahel Reforestation Process

1975 2003

Conceptual modell on a village/landscape scale

Tree Planting andCultivation

Tree Density

Soil Fertility

Wind Speed

Local Rainfall

Family FoodProduction

CropPlantingSuccess

FuelwoodAvailability

ForagingTime

HouseholdIncome

SoilMoisture

Crop Yield

++

+

-

+

+

+

++

-

Farmers' Sense of Crisis( Potential for Behavior

Shift)

-

+

+

-

+

Potential for Non-FarmIncome Generation

-

+

+

ET

+

Livestockvisiting

Farmers'Fields

+

ConflictsHerders/Farmers

LocalLivestockAccessDistant

Resources

HerderMonitoring

Time

+

-

HouseholdSubsistence

+

Drought Durationand Intensity

-

Foodpurchases

-

-

AdvancingDesert

FoodExport

+

+

Farmers'Livestock

++

+

FuelwoodSales

+

B1

- B2a-

B3a

B2b

B2c

B2d

B2e

B3b

B4a

B4b

B4c

R5

Tree Removal

-

+

Fodder infields

Forestry officersinterventions

+

Local Decisionand

EnforcementCapacity

+

-

-

+

-+

- -

HerderLivestock

EnvironmentalDegradation

+

+

+

Drawing casual loop diagrams

Draw a causal loop diagram (CLD) that portrays how your chosen indicators interact in a systematic way. Start with the indicators you have and add indicators that you think are important for the dynamics of the system.

LEVERAGE POINTS

Places within a complex system where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything. Points of power.

Identified leverage points depend on

• What system we are looking at• How we are looking at it• How we have conceptualized it• Our mental models

And they are often counter-intuitive (J.W. Forrester)

Places to intervene in a system

12. Constants, parameters, numbers11. Sizes of the buffers and other stabilizing

stocks, relative to their flows10. The structure of material stocks and flows9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of

system change8. The strength of negative feedback loops,

relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

Places to intervene in a system

6. The structure of information flows (who does and who does not have access to what kinds of information).

5. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints)

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system2. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system –it’s

goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters – arises1. The power to transcend paradigms

LEVERAGE POINTS

Try to classify the levarage points that you have found by using Dana Meadows categories

CLOSING WORDS