A case study on a mesoscale convective

system and a heat wave event over SESA

Group 5Balmaceda Rocio - Collazo Soledad - Martin Feijoó - Mercedes Poggi

Cases of study

A mesoscale convective system in SESA region with its maximum intensity occurred on 12/03/2005.

A heat wave in SESA region occurred from the 22/12/2013 to 30/12/2013.

GoalsFor the mesoscale convective system (MCS) case

● Compare the RegCM4.7 simulations event against different dataset of precipitation.

● Evaluate the sensibility of the RegCM4.7 for two different parameterizations of convection (Emanuel and Kain-Fritsch)

For the heat wave case

● Compare the RegCM.4.7 simulation against different dataset of temperature.● Compare the performance of an ESD model based on the analog method

against weather station observations.

Experiments set up

● Resolution: 20km → dt = 40 s● Nx = 76 // Ny = 85 ● Vert. Levels = 23● Projection = RotMercator● BC = ERA-Interim 1.5°

Parameterizations:

● PBL → Holtslag● Moisture → SUBEX● OceanFlux → Zeng et al

Convection Parameterizations:● Emanuel● Kain-Fritsch

Runtime

● MCS11/03/2005-00UTC → 14/03/2005-00UTC

● HeatWave15/12/2013-00UTC → 31/12/2013-00UTC

Results - RegCM4.7 comparison with OBS

● RegCM4.7 shows more accuracy with TRMM and CMORPH, although the event propagation doesn’t reach Uruguay

● Also RegCM4-EMA present a BIAS, underestimating the maximum precipitation (compared with TRMM and CMORPH)

RegCM - EMA

MCS Results - RegCM4.7 outputsRegCM - EMA RegCM - KF RegCM - EMA-KF

The PP coverage of both simulations are quite similar, but RegCM-EMA shows much more daily precipitation than RegCM-KF in the event representation

Heat wave - Results Mean Tmax during the heat wave

Krigging interpolation for SMN and INTA stations

0.75

0.52.5

RegCM overestimate the maximum temperature in

central Argentina

Heat wave - Results

Bias RMSE MAE Correlation

6.47 6.8 6.47 0.54

Non significant

Rosario

ESD Model Results

OBSERVED ESD

Spatial distribution of the mean Tmax for December 2013

OBSERVED ESD

Boxplot of Tmax for December 2013

heat wave

Buenos Aires Station

Conclusions● The two RegCM4.7 simulations of the mesoscale convective system manage

to represent the extreme event and its temporal evolution, although slightly underestimating its maximum intensity in comparison with the observed precipitation. The results of the simulations had greater agreement with TRMM and CMORPH.

● In most of the region the RegCM4.7 overestimates the intensity of the heat wave.

● The ESD model, on the other hand, underestimates the Tmax values in almost all the stations analyzed.