Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John...

99
Symbiosis – from organisms to Ear KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA http://www.life.illinois.edu/cheeseman/KAUST/symbiosis

Transcript of Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John...

Page 1: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth

KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program31 January 2011

John CheesemanUniversity of Illinois, USA

http://www.life.illinois.edu/cheeseman/KAUST/symbiosis.ppt

Page 2: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Today - we will look at symbiosis at all levels, however briefly, with particular emphasis on some of the consequences of disrupting it at the planetary scale. 

Some implications for the future of humans on earth will also be discussed.

All organisms on earth occur in some sort of symbiotic relationship with other organisms.

•Symbiosis was probably critical for the colonization of land by multicellular organisms.

Symbiosis affects all parts of our lives…

•plant growth, productivity and survival•human pathogens and diseases•biogeochemical cycling•functioning of the planet itself

2

Page 3: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Land colonization began ca 1.2 Ga with cyanobacterial mats• Fungi added (lichens) ca. 600 Ma

There are >13000 spp of lichen fungi… ~20% of all known fungi

3

Page 4: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Plants arose ca. 500 Ma - no leaves or roots• Earliest fossils have fungal associations• Why? So what?

Aglaophyton - ca 420 Ma

Today, the most well-known mutualistic plant/fungal association is mycorrhizae…

• involves >80% of all plant species…

• critical to P, Zn and K nutrition

• especially in poor soils

4

Page 5: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Rhizobium on soybean

Bacteroids in Rhizobium nodules

Frankia nodules on alderPlants also associate with bacteria•Bacterial N-fixation is agronomically and ecologically critical

5

Page 6: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Following Nod or Myc factor signaling, a nuclear calcium/calmodulin dependent kinase is activated which phosphorylates transcription factors needed for nodule differentiation or AM development.

Nodulation and mycorrhizae formation share signalling pathways

6

Page 7: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Single legume roots may be infected with both VA mycorrhizae and Rhizobium

7

Page 8: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Spartina dominates East Coast, US salt marshes characterized by oligotrophic conditions

Rhizoplane bacteria

Symbiosis is not limited to nodules and mycorrhizae

… plants still provide C to the symbionts (as much as 40% of total photosynthate)

8

Page 9: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Chemotaxis of Zoöspores

9

Page 10: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Epichlöe – a fungal endosymbiont transmitted in seeds

•Protects its grass host from grazers – bad for grazing, great for turf grass•Confers stress tolerance

Other interesting symbioses – some examples

10

Page 11: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

• Photosynthetic sea slugs and sea anemones

• Corals• Bioluminscent squid and angler fish• Gut symbionts (ruminants, monkeys,

termites, people)• Leeches, tsetse flies, lice, bed bugs,

mites… can live on your blood because endosymbionts synthesize B vitamins and other nutritional supplements

Other interesting symbioses – some examples

11

Page 12: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Endosymbionts of termites

Symbiotic archaeoprotist from the intestine of the termite Reticulitermes flavipes. … Trichonympha agilis… Pyrsonympha verteus … Dinenympha gracilis.

From Joseph Leidy (1881) - “The parasites of termites”

Symbionts eat the wood eaten by the termites, and their bacterial symbionts do the actual digestion.

12

Page 13: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Dichanthelium lanuginosum (hot springs panic grass)

• Yellowstone and Lassen Volcanic National Parks, US

• Found on edges of hot springs, adjacent to thermal streams, and on fumaroles (steam vents)

• One of most thermotolerant vascular plants: rhizosphere temperatures range from 20˚C - 57˚C

13

Page 14: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Seasonal records show soil temps > 45-55˚C for prolonged periods

14

Page 15: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

The problem:Grown in a greenhouse or other controlled condition, Dicanthelium is not tolerant above 40˚C

15

Page 16: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Curvularia asciCurvularia protuberata on leaf and root of D. lanuginosum

The problem remains:Grown in controlled cultures, Curvularia is also not tolerant above 40˚C

Culturing leaves and roots reveals numerous fungal associations

16

Page 17: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

• Curvularia is not the only fungus that does this… Fusarium culmorum confers salt tolerance on dune grasses, watermelon and other plants… different strains dominate in different microhabitats.

An even more interesting problem:Cultured together, the pair is tolerant of 60˚C

And… it is not just the plant fungal interaction:The fungus is infected with a virus that is required for the heat tolerance

17

Page 18: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Break

18

Page 19: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

An ecosystem is …

19

Page 20: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

An ecosystem is all the organisms living in a community as well as all the abiotic factors with which they interact.

Many ecologists regard the entire biosphere as a global ecosystem…

20

Page 21: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Sustainability/stability of any ecosystem depends on biogeochemical cycles

21

Page 22: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Ecosystems are ruled by energy flows and chemical cycling

What is heat?

22

Page 23: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

In a compost heap, respiratory heat released by detritivores and decomposers leads to high, but optimal internal temperatures.

Temperature rises because heat energy is transferred to water.

23

Page 24: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Ecosystems are ruled by energy flows and chemical cycling

What is the role of detritivores?

What happens if detritus is removed?

What limits primary production?

24

Page 25: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Physical and chemical factors limit primary production in ecosystems

Productivity is the product of productivity per unit area, and total area• Most highly productive ecosystems are small in total area

25

Page 26: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Regional annual net primary productivity is spatially variable

26

Page 27: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Sustainability/stability of any ecosystem depends on biogeochemical cycles

Generalized scheme

• Rate variations between systems largely reflect decomposition rates

• Affected by temperature and water

27

Page 28: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Nutrient cycles are global

Nitrogen fertilizer applied to Illinois corn is consumed and excreted in European feedlots, or re-exported as meat products

28

Page 29: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

An more detailed example: the water cycle

Is this “local” or “global”?

How does this relate to symbiosis?

29

Page 30: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Global climate changes affects huge areas and billions of people though the biogeochemical water cycle

Amazonian drought in 2005/6 fueled massive fires

Coincided with very active North Atlantic hurricane season

Effects of conversion of forests to savannah will affect even more people.

30

Page 31: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Atmospheric and ocean circulations result in massive redistribution of energy and matter

31

Page 32: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

More on the water cycle

The water and sulfur cycles are linked:

• Oceanic cloud formation & rainfall requires nucleating effects of biogenic dimethylsulfide

• Pelagic birds may use DMS to find prey

32

Page 33: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Atmospheric composition varies very little over very long periods Hyperreactive gases such as O2, O3 and CH4 exist at relatively stable levels

Earth is characterized by unexpected stabilities

Ocean salinity varies little even though ocean makeup is far from equilibrium:river salt inputs should raise SW well above 3.4% salinity as should ocean circulation through hot basaltic vents

CO2 cycle involves release from volcanoes, dissolution in ocean waters and precipitation in limestone both bioactively and inorganically… but changes are (were) slow over long periods.

33

Page 34: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

On Earth, temperature changes are generally gradual and (even today) means are relatively stable

34

Page 35: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

On Earth, temperature changes are generally gradual and (even today) means are relatively stable

January 2010 Global Temperature Update

35

Page 36: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Most important environmental considerations at any scale are stability, and the magnitude and predictability of variation.

Oceans and atmosphere moderate variability• Year to year variations are small and long term changes are gradual

By contrast, on Mars…

• No oceans and a thin atmosphere• Low thermal inertia • Climate easily perturbed by external

influences, including solar variations• Mean temperature can change by

many degrees from year to year, depending on how active large scale dust storms are

36

Page 37: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Martian climate is particularly sensitive to the strength and duration of hemispheric dust storms

37

Page 38: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Within an ecosystem, the linkages are not always obvious

Three ecosystem components• Biosphere• Lithosphere• Atmosphere

… interact unpredictably

38

Page 39: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Within an ecosystem, the linkages are not always obvious

Salpa aspera – the missing link for CO2 ?

One swarm covered 38,600 square miles (100,000 square kilometers) of the sea surface… perhaps trillions of thumb-sized salps…. Consumed up to 74 percent of surface microalgae per day… their sinking fecal pellets transported up to 4,000 tons of carbon a day to deep water.

39

Page 40: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

… a planetary physiological system that regulates the chemistry and climate … atmospheric homeostasis controlled by and for the biosphere… Earth is a single living organism … a symbiotic planet.

Gaia

"It is remarkable how exact the balance is between the carbon input from volcanoes and the output from rock weathering…; This suggests a natural thermostat which helps maintain climate stability."

James Lovelock

40

Page 41: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Gaia can be viewed not as an organism but as an emergent property of a complex system, reflecting interaction among organisms

Complex systems show non-linear behavior full of unknown unknowns.• Small changes have profound consequences• “Tipping points”

Lynn Margulis

41

Page 42: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Homeostasis, homeorhesis and emergent properties

Population as an example of emergent properties in complex systems

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

42

Page 43: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Break

43

Page 44: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

“An ecosystem is all the organisms living in a community as well as all the abiotic factors with which they interact.”

All aspects of the global ecosystem are dominated by a single organism - humans.

44

Page 45: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

There are no pristine environments. There is nowhere spared from human domination.

45

Page 46: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

6 trillion plastic bagsper year

try as I mightI cannot conceivecannot fathom inmy wildest imagination

16,438,356,164 per day684,931,506 per hour11,415,525 per minute190,258 per second, for each beat of my heart as I rest in bed at dawn9513 in the blink of an eye or a single frame in a moving picture

882 for each living, breathing human soul on the planet163 for every acre of land2.3 for each corn plant in the US15 for every tree

43,011 per square mile of ocean

101,694,915 for each species of mammal20,689,655 for each species of plant1.5 billion for each species of cockroach200 million for each sea turtle waiting to eat a jellyfish

46

Page 47: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

A known known - Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

Forcing agents include:• CO2 (up 40% since 1750)• Aerosols• CH4 (up 150%)• NOx and other

greenhouse gases• Orbital variations• Solar output

47

Page 48: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

A known known - Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

Forcing effects are manifest as changes in the solar constant• Small changes are important• Since 1750, the effective solar constant has increased ca. 1.5 W/m2 (ca. 0.1%)

48

Page 49: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

A known known - Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

75% of change due to fossil fuel burning25% due to land use changes (especially deforestation)Annual imbalance is only 2-4 GT/yrEmission are still rapidly rising

In 1990s – 1.3%/yr.Since 2000 – 3.3%/yr

49

Page 50: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

Graph shows “anthropogenic global warming”50

Page 51: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

Thermal inertia keeps Earth’s systems stable… but once change starts, it is hard to stop

2030-20502050-2070

51

Page 52: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Environmental change is brought about by “forcing agents”

2030-20502050-2070

• 2˚ is now a given; 3˚ is potential catastrophe• Staying within 3˚ means reducing CO2 emissions 80% by 2030

• Bush’s “plan” was to stop increasing emission rates by 2025• EU “plan” is to decrease emissions 20% by 2030• China doesn’t have a plan• Copenhagen didn’t help at all

52

Page 53: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Temperature changes are not and will not be uniformly distributed

53

Page 54: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Temperature changes are not and will not be uniformly distributed

• Melting of permafrost, decomposition and degassing of peat• Arctic sea ice disappearance, de-glaciation of Greenland/Antarctica• Expansion of current deserts• Disruption of glacial based water supplies• Conversion of tropical rainforests to savannahs (short term) or deserts• Disruptive positive feedback effects

54

Page 55: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Transition – from Global warming to challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security• Temperature effects• Collapse of natural systems• Remediation of established declines and system failures

55

Page 56: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• What is the true price of a gallon of gas?• What is “peak oil”? When is it?• Oil and crop production/fertilizer (US vs world)• Oil and irrigation• Post-harvest energy use is 2/3 of total

In 1970 - 1 bushel of wheat would buy 1 barrel of oilIn 2005 - 13 bushels …In 2007 - approx. 18 bushels

Food vs. fuel - the biofuels controversy

56

Page 57: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security

• Two thirds of global water use is for irrigation• In US, water is being diverted to leisure• In US, subsidized water for surplus crops• In Saudi Arabia - deep wells and desalinization …• In mid-east, water is a matter of national policy

57

Page 58: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

58

Page 59: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

59

Page 60: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

60

Page 61: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security

• Two thirds of global water use is for irrigation• Aquifer drawdown

• Water tables, irrigation and salinity

61

Page 62: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security

• Water tables and irrigation• Diversion from rivers

62

Page 63: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security

• Water tables and irrigation• Diversion from rivers• Disappearing lakes

63

Page 64: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security

• Water tables and irrigation• Diversion from rivers• Disappearing lakes• Farm vs. city (China)• Cross border scarcities• Global food security

Example problems• Panamá canal• Hoover Dam and Lake Mead• China and the Olympic games• Israel and Palestine

64

Page 65: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security• Temperature effects

• Crop yield declines• Rainfall pattern changes and losses• Rising seas• Destructive storms• Environmental refugees

65

Page 66: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security• Temperature effects• Collapse of natural systems

• Shrinking forests, soil loss, rangeland destruction, desertification

66

Page 67: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security• Temperature effects• Collapse of natural systems

• Shrinking forests, soil loss, rangeland destruction, desertification• Collapsing fisheries• Extinctions

67

Page 68: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Challenges facing human societies

• Oil supplies and security• Water security• Temperature effects• Collapse of natural system• People

Refugee children – expelled to Nepal from Bhutan68

Page 69: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

On population69

Page 70: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Saving civilization

Can the human species be saved? How?

"I've never seen a problem that wouldn't be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more." David Attenborough

70

Page 71: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

On population71

Page 72: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Current population

What is the current population? What does that mean?

6.8 billion

9% of the all time total human population

500 Mtonnes - ~ same as Antarctic krill

95-99% of total vertebrate biomass(Humans, livestock and pets)

45/km2 (120/mi2)

72

Page 73: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Population and growth

Growth rate is declining? What does that mean?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Growth rate (%)

73

Page 74: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Population and growth

Growth rate is declining? What does that mean?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Growth rate (%)

74

Page 75: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Population and growth

Growth rate is declining? What does that mean?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Growth rate (%)

96% of current growth is in less developed countries (including China)

+43% +280%

75

Page 76: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Saving civilization

“Saving civilization is not a spectator sport.”Lester Brown

• Heart of climate stabilization is cutting CO2 emissions by 80% by 2020

• A race between tipping points in natural and political systems

Can the human species be saved? How?

76

Page 77: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Carrying capacity

What is Earth’s carrying capacity (for humans)?

At what standard of living?At what levels of consumption?

What are we using now?

Based on global averages with huge spatial variability• Agriculture, land occupation, grazing, forestry• Humans use 20 Pg Carbon = 32% of the total TNPP

77

Page 78: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

pollution

How will population growth be constrained?

War and Genocide?

• World population in 1900 was ca. 1.5 billion• The combined deaths due to all wars, epidemics and genocides since

1900 was no more than 200,000,000• The population in 2000 was 6 billion• War is not the answer

78

Page 79: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

pollution

How will population growth be constrained?

Continually worsening pollution? Former Soviet Union

• 11% of children have birth defects• 55% have health problems other than normal childhood diseases• 10% of food supply and 50% of drinking water is chemically contaminated• Life expectancy is declining

China - Olympics called attention to grave and worsening pollution• Trans-Pacific export of air pollution• Water and soil pollution • Heavy metals from high-tech trash

79

Page 80: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Water supplies

How will population growth be constrained?

Water supplies/shortages?

• Japan - 1993 - imported water by ship load• Australia - current water use restrictions nation-wide• China - too little rainfall, insecure supplies• India - retreating water tables, encroaching saline water, drought

In US, 21% of all irrigation is by over-pumping ground waterSame in China and India

… even before indoor plumbing, flush toilets, kitchen water… 300 of largest cities have severe water scarcity

80

Page 81: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Water use for food

How will population growth be constrained?

Water supplies and food supplies

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7284196.stm

Why do we care what the Chinese eat?

81

Page 82: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Masses

“Whenever you multiply anything by 1.2 billion, it’s a lot.” - Lester Brown

+1 beer per year = 370,000 tons of grain

= Australia’s total grain export in a good year

+4 eggs per week = 260 billion eggs

+30 kg beef = 300 km3 H2O

82

Page 83: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Food

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?• Fisheries?

83

Page 84: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Grain

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?

Per capita grain production increased from 1950-1990• Irrigation• Fertilizer• Genetics

Worldwide, 10-50% of world food supply is wasted.

84

Page 85: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Recent prices

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7284196.stm85

Page 86: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Recent prices

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7284196.stm86

Page 87: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

China

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?

“If we continue to squander our land and water resources [to industrialize], we will need to import 400 million tons of grain… and even all the grain produced in the US will not be enough…”

Prof. Zhu-Guang Zhao

87

Page 88: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Land use changes

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Land use and degradation?

ca. 10 Mha/yr are lost from production due to • Erosion• Salinization• Waterlogging• Urbanization

ca. 16 Mha/yr are added by deforestation

88

Page 89: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Fisheries

How will population growth be constrained?

Food?• Grain supplies?• Fisheries?

Fisheries output increased 4.6 times from 1950-1989… flattened, then declined

Per capita availability is declining rapidly

(FAO) all 17 oceanic fisheries now being fished at or beyond capacity… 9 are in state of decline, or collapsing

No longer the protein choice for the poor… too expensive

89

Page 90: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Fisheries

How will population growth be constrained?

Disease?Obesity (current rankings)# 1 United States: 30.6% # 2 Mexico: 24.2% # 3 United Kingdom: 23% # 4 Slovakia: 22.4% # 5 Greece: 21.9% # 6 Australia: 21.7% # 7 New Zealand: 20.9% # 8 Hungary: 18.8% # 9 Luxembourg: 18.4% # 10 Czech Republic: 14.8% # 11 Canada: 14.3% # 12 Spain: 13.1% # 13 Ireland: 13% # 14 Germany: 12.9% # 15 Portugal: 12.8% # 15 Finland: 12.8% # 17 Iceland: 12.4% # 18 Turkey: 12% # 19 Belgium: 11.7% # 20 Netherlands: 10%

90

Page 91: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Fisheries

How will population growth be constrained?

Disease?• Pandemics of known diseases?• Pandemics of new and emerging diseases?

• “Only” 20 million died in the 1918 flu epidemic, or about 1.3% of world population

91

Page 92: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Fisheries

How will population growth be constrained?

Personal choice?

•Japan, Russia, France, Germany, US (except for immigration) are losing people•Even that is a problem – strains on social security systems

92

Page 93: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Failed states

What if we don’t do something? Deciding for collapse.

UNEP lists 60 failed states

• Can no longer perform basic functions of education, security, or governance

• Vulnerable to or beset by violence and internal conflict• Severely uneven development• Loss of governmental legitimacy

93

Page 94: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

94

Page 95: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Refugees

• More than 100 million between-country refugees• Within China, more than 100 million migrants• Wanderers reflect and precipitate crisis and terrorism• More than 70 of the last 80 major conflicts have been within countries

Climate refugees - Astrodome

What if we don’t do something? Deciding for collapse.

UNEP lists 60 failed states

95

Page 96: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Four futures - summary

Winning the battle – Plan B 4.0

Stabilize CO2 – cut emissions by 80% by 2020Stabilize population at ≤ 8 billionEradicate poverty ($77 B/yr)Restore natural systems ($110 B/yr)

All that is needed for the triumph of evil is for good folks to do nothing.

96

Page 97: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Four futures - summary

Winning the battle

Stabilize CO2 – cut emissions by 80% by 2020Stabilize population at ≤ 8 billionEradicate poverty ($77 B/yr)Restore natural systems ($110 B/yr)

97

Page 98: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

Four futures - summary

Winning the battle

Stabilize CO2 – cut emissions by 80% by 2020Stabilize population at ≤ 8 billionEradicate poverty ($77 B/yr)Restore natural systems ($110 B/yr)

98

Page 99: Symbiosis – from organisms to Earth KAUST – Winter Enrichment Program 31 January 2011 John Cheeseman University of Illinois, USA .

"You can't have a light without a dark to stick it in." Arlo Guthrie

99