Swindon School Place Planning Study Update v3

Revised Proposed Submission Swindon Core Strategy - Evidence Base Only

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Swindon School Place Planning Study Update

March 2011


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Contents 1. Executive Summary 3

2. Purpose of the Update 6

3. Recommendations 6

4. Methodology 7

5. Strategic Background and Context 11

6. Overall School Place Needs 13

7. Distribution of School Place Needs 17

8. North Swindon 19

9. Central and South 25

10. East Swindon 32

11. West Swindon and Wiltshire 37

12. Rural 41

13. Options Summary 43

Appendix 1 – School Children Consultation on the Schools Organisational Plan 2010-2013


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1. Executive Summary

1.1. The draft Swindon Core Strategy outlines a strategy for long-term growth including around 18,600 homes. Table 2, below, outlines how the growth will be distributed and Figures 2a and 2b set out how they will impact on available school places across the town in addition to existing pressures. The strategy will generate a need for around 22 forms-of-entry at primary and secondary school level across the town.

1.2. The Local Authority has a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient school

places are available within their area for every child of school age whose parents wish them to have one, to promote high educational standards, to ensure fair access to educational opportunity, and to help fulfill every child’s educational potential. It must also ensure there are sufficient schools in their area and promote diversity and parental choice.

1.3. This strategy brings together information from a range of sources and sets

out the issues the Borough will face in meeting its statutory duties for providing school places until 2026. The strategy includes present and predicted future pupil numbers on roll, together with information about birth rates, school capacity and new housing. School Place Planning Zones at Figure 1.

Table 1 – Primary and Secondary School Place Needs from new housing development

Location Housing

Nos School Place NeedsForms of Entry (FE)

Methodology

Wichelstowe 4100 4.51 (4100 x 0.033)/30 Northern Devt Area 900 0.99 (900 x 0.033)/30 Commonhead 950 1.05 (950 x 0.033)/30 Tadpole Farm 1700 1.87 (1700 x 0.033)/30 East of Swindon 7500 8.25 (7500 x 0.033)/30 Swindon Urban Area 3000 3.3 (3000 x 0.033)/30 Swindon Rural Area 450 0.5 (450 x 0.033)/30 Total 18600 20.47 Moredon Bridge (Wilts)

200 0.2

FE is a form of entry and generally means a class of 30 pupils.

North Swindon 1.4. There are already significant pressures for primary and secondary school

places in north Swindon. Completion of developments at Oakhurst, Redhouse and Haydon End and growth at Tadpole Farm will add to existing pressure in the north.

(a) Primary


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1.5. Temporary places are proposed at existing schools to manage primary school pressures. Options include Bridlewood, Orchid Vale, Red Oaks, Moredon, Haydon Wick, Haydonleigh, Rodbourne Cheney and Greenmeadow. A new primary school will be provided at Tadpole Farm and if necessary a second primary school may be needed to manage existing pressure elsewhere in north Swindon.

(b) Secondary

1.6. It is recommended that secondary school places be met by utilising surplus places and transportation to Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford and by the expansion of Isambard and / or Nova Hreod Schools.

Central and South Swindon (a) Primary

1.7. There is already pressure on primary school places in Old Town and Swindon town centre, which will transfer to secondary school pressures in due course. Development at Wichelstowe will also increase demand for places and pressure in this area.

1.8. East Wichel primary school is due to open in September 2011 and a

permanent school is proposed to open at Croft in September 2012. A further 2 primary schools will be provided at Wichelstowe. Establishing at least one new school and expanding an existing primary school in the Central South area will meet the remaining pressure. Possible options for new primary school(s) include Upham Road, Sanford House, Clarence House, Broad Green, Bath Road, the Planks car park, Granville car park and Spring Gardens.

(b) Secondary

1.9. This update recommends expanding Ridgeway and establishing a new

secondary school in central or south Swindon to manage secondary school pressure and retain surplus and flexibility in the secondary school network. On balance this report recommends that Oakfield should be promoted as the preferred site but alternatives include North Star and Wichelstowe. Other secondary school sites have been assessed, but are not recommended for consideration, these include Mannington (flood risk), Civic Campus (site availability and size) and North Wroughton (impact on Wroughton and proximity to demand).

1.10. If establishing a new secondary school in central Swindon is not feasible

then an alternative solution to meet secondary school pressures through expansion and transportation does exist. This could include numerous construction projects for expansion of Ridgeway, Churchfields, St, Joseph’s, Dorcan and possibly Greendown. This would, however, remove almost all of the surplus capacity from the network in combination with the


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recommendations for north Swindon. This would impact on parental choice and expose the Council to a high degree of risk if school place pressures arise in the future that have not been foreseen, schools convert to Academy status or patterns of parental choice change, particularly in west Swindon.

East Swindon

1.11. There are surplus places in east Swindon at present. However, the

potential development east of Swindon and the proposed development at Commonhead will be far in excess of surplus places available.

(a) Primary

1.12. To meet primary school place needs, a new primary school could be

established at Commonhead. It is recommended that South Marston primary school is extended and 4 new primary schools created east of Swindon. The new primary schools will be capable of expansion to accommodate a temporary peak in pupil numbers.

(b) Secondary

1.13. A new secondary school on-site, as part of a learning campus, is

recommended as a pre-requisite to development east of Swindon. However surplus places and expansion at Dorcan is proposed to manage pressure in the short term and assist with the peak in the longer term.

West Swindon and Wiltshire

1.14. At the moment a significant number of West Swindon pupils are educated

in Wiltshire. Therefore Wiltshire has been included in the assessment to reflect and understand these patterns and their impact. The major pressure in the long term for West Swindon relates to the knock-on effects of the development adjacent to Swindon in Wiltshire and the potential impact if parental preference for Bradon Forest or Wootton Bassett secondary schools changes. If, for whatever reason, the pupils currently educated in Wiltshire came back into the Swindon network, there would not be enough places to accommodate them. Surplus places and potential expansion would be needed to manage this pressure.

1.15. The table below sets out the recommendation for meeting long term

secondary school place needs:


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Overall Position Table 2 – Recommendation for Meeting Secondary Place Needs

School Type of Provision Forms of Entry

Isambard / Nova / North Expansion / New School 8FE East of Swindon New School 8FE Dorcan Surplus / Expansion 2FE Oakfield New School 8FE Ridgeway Expansion 2FE TOTAL 28FE

2. Purpose of the Update

2.1. In April 2009, the School Place Planning Study report identified the school places, and range of other educational needs, required to meet Swindon’s long-term educational needs until 2026. The study considered demographic projections, proposed development areas and the need to support attainment and opportunities for young people across the town and Borough.

2.2. The Coalition Government have signalled their intent to abolish the

regional tier of planning, including the draft South West Regional Spatial Strategy. This identified housing targets and proposed development areas for Swindon. Instead, Swindon will set its own housing targets and identify its own development areas through its Local Development Framework and specifically the Swindon Core Strategy.

2.3. The purpose of this report is to update the School Place Planning Study in

the light of changes to the forecast housing numbers and distribution of development sites for Swindon as set out in the draft Core Strategy. This report should be read alongside the School Place Planning Study (2009). It deals only with primary and secondary school needs. Matters relating to early years, post-16 and special educational needs remain at this stage as set out in the original School Place Planning Study.

3. Recommendations

3.1 Section 6 sets out the overall mainstream school place needs for Swindon to meet the requirements of the long term planning strategy. The report then considers options to meet local need across Swindon and considers strategic options for the town in combination with one another in Section 13.

3.2 It is important to note that no decisions have yet been made regarding the

strategy or site options outlined in this report. Where this report identifies site options they remain subject to detailed options appraisal, feasibility studies, funding and planning consent.


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Surplus places/capacity 3.3 This report recommends that, despite the financial challenges associated

with accommodating growth, around 6% surplus be maintained at secondary school level and 8% at primary school level. The key reasons are as follows: Scale of growth – Flexibility is needed within the school infrastructure

because the scale of growth creates a high degree of uncertainty in predicting long-term need, particularly in terms of the peak and phasing

Parental choice – working with Local Authority schools and Academies, the Council needs to continue to focus on maximising parental choice and ensuring that, as far as possible, children have access to schools within their local communities. It is important to note that schools converting to Academies will be outside the Local Authority (as will Free Schools) and therefore close partnership working between the Local Authority and Academies will be crucial for effective school place planning.

The Swindon Peak – Surplus places will be extremely important in managing the temporary peak in school place demand associated with growth at the town to prevent the need to provide expensive short term school places

Primary School Places

3.4 Around 21 forms-of-entry will be required to accommodate growth and

existing demand for primary school places. To meet this long term demand it is recommended that: 9 forms-of-entry are provided in the east including:

4 new 2FE primary schools east of Swindon, each with capacity to expand by 1FE

1 new 1FE primary school at Commonhead Expansion of South Marston primary school by 1FE

3 forms-of-entry are provided in the north including: 1 new 2FE primary school at Tadpole Farm with capacity to

expand by 1FE 9 forms-of-entry are provided in central and south including:

2 new 2FE primary schools at Wichelstowe, each with capacity to expand by 1FE

1 new 2FE primary school at Croft 2 new primary schools in the Old Town / town centre area of

3FE in total

Secondary School Places 3.5 Around 21FE will be required to accommodate growth for secondary

school places and a further 4.6FE from existing demand. To meet long term secondary school place demand it is recommended that:


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1 new 8FE secondary school is provided in the East Swindon area, with capacity to expand to 12FE if necessary and expansion of Dorcan by 2FE

Expansion of Isambard and Nova Hreod in the north to deliver 5 FE and transport to Highworth Warneford and Swindon Academy

new secondary school in central / south of around 8 FE and expansion of Ridgeway

4. Methodology

4.1 The current pupil forecasting method used is the cohort survival method. To predict the number of school places that will be needed the cohort survival method incorporates and assesses the following information for each primary school based area: The number of children born based on post code related statistics

provided by the primary care trust; The proportion expected to enter school based on past experience; The “survival” of that cohort as it moves through school taking account

of net migration which occurs in relation to schools’ popularity and the effects of development in their area

Those who may need education in other establishments such as special schools

The likely transfer to each secondary school; And, for each secondary school, a similar “survival” method,

particularly taking account of transfer rates to the sixth form if there is one

4.2 Using this method, forecasts are produced for:

Primary and secondary pupil numbers available by school, by area

and year group up to 2015; Secondary pupil numbers available by school (total number on roll -

NOR) to 2018; Area level projections including new housing assessed using simple

multipliers of 0.231 and 0.165 primary and secondary aged children per dwelling. This equates to a pupil yield factor of 0.033 per year group per dwelling;

Growth areas up to 2026; A robust methodology with a high degree of accuracy. Annual review

and comparison against actual pupil yield shows forecasts to be within 2% accuracy

Overall Needs

No of houses X

Pupil yield

(0.033) = No. of

pupils / 30 = No of Forms of Entry (FE)

OR


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Primary Needs

No. of houses X

Primary pupil yield

(0.231) /

No. of primary

year groups (7)

=No. of

primary pupils

/ 30 =

No of Forms

of Entry (FE)

Secondary Needs

No. of houses X

Secondary pupil yield

(0.165) /

No. of secondary

year groups (5)

=No. of

secondary pupils

/ 30 =

No of Forms

of Entry (FE)

4.3 Potential primary school and secondary school sites have been provisionally assessed using a RAG (Red, Amber, Green) status for the following headings: Accessibility e.g. Potential routes to school, access to public transport

and impact on the existing transport network Site Conditions e.g. Flood risk, availability School Place Demand Links to other strategies e.g. One Swindon, Leisure strategy

4.4 Where this report identifies site options they remain subject to detailed

options appraisals, feasibility studies, funding and planning consent.

4.5 This update to the School Place Planning Study identifies options around:

Total school place needed to accommodate this level of development Existing capacity and surplus to accommodate development at

existing schools The distribution of existing schools and proposed solutions to

accommodate development A change to remove the 50% discount applied to developments on the

urban area of Swindon due to the number of flats expected. The experience in Swindon is that there are pupils generated from these types of development in line with the pupil yields above.

Internal displacement.


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Figure 1 – Map


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5. Strategic Background and Context

Regional Spatial Strategy

5.1 The draft Regional Spatial Strategy for the South West identifies that Swindon should accommodate 34,200 homes within the Borough and an additional 3,000 homes in Wiltshire as urban extension(s) to Swindon.

5.2 The Coalition Government have signalled their intent to abolish

Regional Spatial Strategies and to hand decision-making powers back to local areas. As a result, Swindon is revisiting the housing targets for the Borough to better reflect deliverability, sustainability and local community aspirations, whilst maintaining a commitment to economic growth, addressing market demand and housing need.

Core Strategy

5.3 The Core Strategy will identify a housing target of 18,600 homes

from 2006 to 2026. A further 6,000 homes have already been completed making a total of around 25,000 homes overall. These will be distributed as follows and set out in Figure 1: 3,000 homes within Swindon’s existing urban area 900 homes remaining at the Northern Development area 4,100 homes remaining at Wichelstowe 7,500 homes to the east of Swindon 1,700 homes at Tadpole Farm 950 homes at Commonhead 450 homes within Swindon’s rural area 200 homes at Moredon Bridge – this site is in Wiltshire

Community Strategy

5.4 The Swindon Sustainable Community Strategy aims to promote

high aspirations supported by superb education provision for all ages. The Core Strategy objectives to support this aim are to: Support high aspirations and skills to enable everyone to make

a contribution to Swindon’s economy Support an approach to lifelong learning that integrates early

years, primary, secondary, tertiary, special and adult learning Establish schools at the heart of their communities to deliver

wider social and economic benefits for all Create and develop inclusive, accessible, supportive and safe

learning environments Provide a university to align skills with local business needs

and retain Swindon’s brightest young people


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Sufficient School Places

5.5 The Local Authority has a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient school places are available within their area for every child of school age whose parents wish them to have one, to promote high educational standards, to ensure fair access to educational opportunity, and to help fulfil every child’s educational potential. It must also ensure there are sufficient schools in their area and promote diversity and parental choice.

5.6 Following the formation of the Coalition Government there are two

key legislative changes to school organisation within the Academies Act and the introduction of Free Schools. At the time of publishing this update the full details relating to these two key areas have not been fully released. However, the direction from the new Government is as follows:

Academies Act 2010

5.7 The purpose of the Act is to enable more schools to become

academies and give them the freedoms and flexibilities they need to continue to drive up standards. As at March 2011, all secondary schools in Swindon Borough have expressed an interest in becoming Academies.

5.8 The Government's vision is to create a world-beating school system

in which every parent has access to a good school and all pupils achieve high standards. The central aims are to raise standards for all children, while narrowing the gap between the attainment of the most and least advantaged.

Free Schools

5.9 Free Schools are all-ability state-funded schools set up in response to parental demand. The Government’s view is that the most important element of a great education is the quality of teaching and Free Schools will enable excellent teachers to create schools and improve standards for all children, regardless of their background.

5.10 Under the new plans it will become much easier for charities,

universities, businesses, educational groups, teachers and groups of parents to get involved and set up new schools. Ministers have indicated that they are working right across Government to remove the red tape which can prevent new schools from setting up, including planning laws and the Department’s own school premises rules.

5.11 Delivering the recommendations within the update will depend on

negotiations with Academies and Free Schools. The proposals above could increase surplus capacity or help meet future demand.


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6 Overall School Place Needs

6.1 The purpose of this section is to update the School Place Planning Study to identify the overall number of school places needed to accommodate Swindon’s growth and to identify how they will broadly be distributed. This update also aims to calculate and incorporate the existing pressures into the overall need and distribution of school places.

Existing Pressure

6.2 Forecasts across Swindon anticipate up to 4.6FE of secondary school pupils above the capacity by 2017 (shown in Figure 2a). This is based on pupils currently expected to transfer from local primary schools. The forecast primary school population is expected to peak at 7.3FE above capacity by 2012 (shown in Figure 2b).

Figure 2a – Borough-wide Secondary School Pressures

Swindon Secondary Schools

76.6

75.6

74.7

79.2

80.3

81.4

84.9

80.3 80.3

85.3 85.3

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try

Forms of Entry in primary schools in area

Swindon Secondary Schools Forms of Entry

Plus 5 FE Bradon Forest & Wootton Bassett


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Figure 2b – Borough-wide Primary School Pressures

Swindon Primary Schools

90.5

95.8

100.4

95.6

97.3

94.7

91.7

93.1 93.1

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Ch

ild

ren

PCT data as at Sept 10 preschool children in area as Forms of Entry

Forms of Entry in Swindon schools

Table 3 – Primary and Secondary School Place Needs from existing development

Schools Existing Pressure Secondary 4.6FE

Primary 7.3FE

Growth

6.3 The primary and secondary school places requirement from the proposed development strategy below are based on 0.231 and 0.165 primary and secondary aged children per dwelling, which equates to a pupil yield of 0.033 per year per dwelling. FE is a form of entry and generally means a class of 30 pupils. Fuller explanation of the background to this can be found in Chapters 3-5 of the School Place Planning Study (CEA, 2009).

Table 4 – Primary and Secondary School Place Needs from new development

Location Housing

No’s School Place NeedsForms of Entry (FE)

Methodology

Wichelstowe 4100 4.51 (4100 x 0.033)/30 Northern Devt Area 900 0.99 (900 x 0.033)/30 Commonhead 950 1.05 (950 x 0.033)/30 Tadpole Farm 1700 1.87 (1700 x 0.033)/30 East of Swindon 7500 8.25 (7500 x 0.033)/30 Swindon Urban Area 3000 3.3 (3000 x 0.033)/30 Swindon Rural Area 450 0.5 (450 x 0.033)/30 Total 18600 20.47 Moredon Bridge (Wilts)

200 0.2


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6.4 The total FE requirement from new housing developments for both primary and secondary is 20.47 FE.

6.5 The School Place Planning Study (CEA, 2009) discounted the pupil

yield from development in Swindon’s urban area, anticipating a significant proportion of flats, without children, particularly in Swindon town centre. The economic downturn has impacted on the housing market and the message is clear from the development industry that flats do not represent a viable product on a significant scale in the current market or in the foreseeable future.

6.6 Furthermore, flats in the town centre are proving to generate higher

pupil figures than had been anticipated. As a consequence of these two factors, the discount in the school place calculation for the urban area has been removed.

Peak

6.7 Swindon has experienced rapid significant post war growth, which

has seen the town expand to the east around the Eldene, Liden and Dorcan areas. This was followed by expansion to the west, north and currently the south. This has generated a pattern of school place demand, which would not normally occur in a more organically grown settlement, referred to within this document as “the peak”. The peak for West Swindon is shown below in Figure 3.

Figure 3 –Secondary School Pressures

West Swindon Primary Schools 1992 to 2011

13.7

14.314.5

14.9 15.0 15.1

16.015.7

14.714.5 14.5

13.8

13.0

12.4

11.2

10.7

10.3

11.1

10.6 10.5

1212

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try

Forms of Entry

Long Term Capacity


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6.8 As new development areas have been built out at Swindon, the relatively lower cost of new homes has been attractive to young families. As a result, a higher than average proportion of young children live in the area putting pressue primary schools and then on secondary schools.

6.9 This peak pressure, however, does not persist and when they leave

school it tends to have a converse effect. As the children grow into young adults and leave home, there becomes a higher than average number of middle-aged adults in an ageing development area without children. This causes a trough in school place demand before stabilising in the future, explained in more detail at Appendix 3.

6.10 This phenomenon can cause difficulties when planning school

places, especially for primary school children. In West Swindon this has resulted in primary school closures, whilst the growth in the Northern Development Area has attracted an increasing number of young families. The challenge is to provide school places for the long term when the population stabilises, but also to manage the temporary short-term peak.

6.11 The Northern Development Area ‘Lessons Learned’ exercise looked

at the perceptions of residents of their community. One of the key conclusions of the report was that not enough school places had been provided early enough and those provided were not in the right place or at the right time. Whilst the criticism on phasing has validity, the cause of this school place pressure has been and continues to be a temporary peak, which will subside in the longer term.

6.12 To manage this Swindon-specific pattern in the long term, this

report recommends providing temporary accommodation at primary schools in urban extensions. Secondary school places are more difficult to manage and uncertainty associated with school place pressures is complicated by parental choice. Therefore, expansion of nearby schools and the retention of surplus places will be essential in managing the temporary pressure.

Transport

6.13 To manage some of the pressure identified within the assessment

zone, it could be necessary for the Local Authority to provide transport. Transport to school is a statutory requirement based on the overall distance a pupil travels to school. Transport is usually only applicable to rural areas. Within the urban area of Swindon most schools are within the statutory distance limit so transport is unlikely to be required.


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6.14 The impact of new legislation relating to Academies could result in an increased level of transport provided by schools, rather than the Local Authority. As schools become more independent this could lead to increased competition for pupils across the borough and add to the complexity of planning school places.


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7 Distribution of School Place Needs

7.1 The purpose of this section is to consider the best way to distribute school places to meet long-term demand from existing pressures and future growth. This assessment aims to provide schools in close proximity to existing and projected demand and to establish schools at the heart of their communities. However, it also aims to take a wider, more strategic view ensuring that local pressures are not viewed in isolation of the Swindon-wide situation.

Assessment Zones

7.2 For the purposes of assessment, the School Place Planning Study

(CEA, 2009) divided Swindon into zones made up of four urban areas and one rural area. In this study, whilst the rural and neighbouring authorities remain the same, the urban areas have been amended to better reflect the relationship between secondary schools and the geography of Swindon (See Figure 1).

7.3 These zones are:

North Swindon (Including Highworth) Central and South Swindon East Swindon West Swindon and Wiltshire Rural parts of the Borough

7.4 These assessment zones are not catchment areas. They are a

helpful way of assessing the broad distribution of need in a more flexible and integrated way, related to anticipated areas of pressure rather than existing distribution of schools. The zones have been assessed based on:

Existing school capacity Existing pressure on school places Forecast short term pressure based on registered births Long term pressures associated with identified areas of

development Temporary peak in pupil numbers

7.5 Within each assessment zone demand for primary and secondary

school places has been forecast. Where there is a shortfall in school places options have been set out to meet the demand. It is particularly important that primary school places are provided to meet demand where it is needed to avoid transporting young children.

7.6 Secondary schools should also be positioned in close proximity to

demand. However, there is a higher degree of flexibility. The options for secondary school place provision seek to balance local


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demand against the number of secondary school places available across Swindon.

7.7 New legislation, popularity of schools and patterns of parental

preference all have a bearing on the level of surplus places and the extent to which Swindon can manage school place pressures. Therefore, the options set out in this document will need to be kept under review to take account of the various trends in school provision. This will allow the Council to update the Capital Programme for new builds and consider any revenue implications, for example increased transportation costs.

7.8 It is important to note that no decisions have yet been made

regarding the strategy or possible site options outlined in this report. Where this report identifies site options they remain subject to detailed options appraisals, feasibility studies, funding and planning consent.


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8 North Swindon

8.1 The secondary school clusters included within the northern assessment zone are Isambard, Nova Hreod, Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford. The principal issues for the northern assessment zone concern the existing pressures within the Northern Development Area (NDA), pressure from the remaining 900 homes to be completed within the NDA and development at Tadpole Farm. Tadpole Farm is currently in the Highworth Warneford catchment area, however it is directly adjacent to Isambard and therefore has been considered alongside the existing area of north Swindon.

Table 5 – North Swindon Schools

Primary School Forms of Entry

Abbey Meads 2 Bridlewood 1 Catherine Wayte 2 Ferndale 2 Greenmeadow 1.35 Haydon Wick 1.35 Haydonleigh 2 Moredon 2 Oakhurst 2 Orchid Vale 1 Red Oaks 2 Rodbourne Cheney 1 St Francis CE 2 Swindon Academy 4 Gorse Hill 2 Seven Fields 1.5 Total Existing Capacity 29.2

Secondary School Forms of Entry

Isambard 8 Nova Hreod 8 Swindon Academy 6 Highworth Warneford 6.2 Total Existing Capacity 28.2

School Place Demand

Existing Pressure

8.2 Forecasts in north Swindon anticipate up to 7.6FE of secondary

school pupils above the capacity of Isambard, Nova Hreod, Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford by 2019 (shown


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below in Figure 4b). This is based on pupils currently expected to transfer from local primary schools and is considered the peak in pupil numbers from the area. Therefore 3.8FE (7.6FE/2) is considered the long term existing pressure for the area.

Figure 4a – Northern Sector Secondary School Pressures

Northern Sector Secondary Pressures

15.9

16.8

16.3

21.2

19.8

1919

1616

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try


Isambard & Nova Hreod Forms of Entry

Figure 4b – Northern Sector Secondary School Pressures including Highworth Warneford Pupils

Northern Sector, Warneford and Swindon Academy Secondary Pressures

20.420.1

25.4

27.427.9

24.223.7

20.9

22.8 22.8

28

23.5

31.3

22.2 22.2

23.7

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try


Northern Sector + Warneford Forms of Entry

Northern Sector + Warneford + Academy surplus 1.5 to 2 FE

8.3 Based on birth rates in the area (shown in Figure 5) it is anticipated

that up to 6FE of primary school places will be required beyond existing capacity. There is around 1FE of surplus places in primary


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schools across the Swindon Academy cluster, leaving 5FE to provide beyond existing capacity.

Figure 5 – Northern Sector Primary School Pressures

Northern Sector & Surrounding Primary schools

22.4

24.3

27.7

25.3

24.0

19.7

20.7

25.025.1

21.7

21.7

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

ch

ild

ren

PCT data as at Sept 10 preschool children inarea as Forms of Entry

Forms of Entry in Northern Sector &Surrounding Schools

Growth and Peak

8.4 In addition to the existing pressure that we are aware of, the

completion of the NDA and growth at Tadpole Farm will generate around 2.9FE between them (see Table 1) for both primary and secondary school places. The anticipated pupil peak is expected to increase need to around 4.35FE (+1.45).

Total Demand

8.5 The table below calculates the total demand for additional school

places in the North area as a result of the current school capacity, existing pressure on places, growth and then peak.

Table 6 – North Swindon School Place Demand

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new

housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for

places including the Peak

Secondary 28.2FE 3.8FE 2.9FE 6.7FE 1.45FE 8.15FE Primary 29.2FE 5FE 2.9FE 7.9FE 1.45FE 9.35FE

* Above capacity (taking existing surplus into account)


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Options

Secondary School Places

8.6 To meet secondary school place needs an additional 6.7FE will be needed. Options to deliver these places include:

Expansion of Isambard and / or Nova Hreod Schools Transport to and / or expansion of Highworth Warneford School Creation of a new school, options are set out in Appendix 2 and

include St Luke’s or Groundwell Park and Ride

8.7 There is potential that parents in north Swindon may choose to send their children to schools in Wiltshire as is happening in West Swindon, which could help to reduce the pressure in the north. Whilst this would provide relief for secondary school places, reliance on such a strategy carries a high degree of risk, particularly as 5FE of children from West Swindon are currently educated in Purton or Wootton Bassett.

Expansion

8.8 Swindon Academy (2FE) and Highworth Warneford (1FE) have

surplus capacity at present and an element of the strategy for managing pressure from the north will be likely to involve transportation to these schools. It is also possible that parents in north Swindon may choose to send their children to Bradon Forest or Wootton Bassett. However, transportation alone will not be sufficient to manage the pressure.

8.9 Isambard is well placed to respond to demand in the north.

However, expansion of the school would rely on cooperation with the developers of Tadpole Farm to make land available to provide the school playing pitches allowing for development of new school building on the original site.

8.10 Nova Hreod has more space to expand, particularly on the site of

the buildings that have just been removed. However, it is not as well positioned to respond to demand. Both schools are Private Finance Initiative Schools and not operated by the Council (the schools will revert to Swindon Borough Council after the end of the Private Finance Initiative contract). This is a potential risk to the cost and feasibility of extending these schools.

8.11 The local community and school have expressed a desire to deliver

a 6th Form provision at Isambard. The competing priorities of the community desire for Post-16 provision and the need to provide mainstream secondary school places could limit the capacity for expansion at Isambard and this will need to be investigated further, involving all parties.


24

New Secondary School

8.12 The options for delivering a new secondary school in north Swindon

are limited, partly because much of the area has only relatively recently been built. St. Luke’s Special School and Groundwell Park and Ride site are potential options, however both are remote from demand. St Luke’s is a more deliverable and suitable site than Groundwell due to its size and already being used as a school, but a strategy for relocating the Special Education provision would have to be implemented before the site would become available.

8.13 Table 5 sets out options for how these school places could be

provided.

Table 7 – North Swindon Secondary School Options

School Isambard Nova Hreod Swindon Academy

Highworth Warneford

Existing Capacity

8FE 8FE

6FE + 6th Form (including 2FE surplus)

6.2FE (including 1FE surplus)

Options for additional provision

4-8FE 4-8FE 2FE* 1.8FE

Comments

New PFI school built to accommodate 8FE

New PFI school built to accommodate 8FE

0-19 all through school. *Growth in size might help 6th form numbers, but larger school difficult here, so not recommended (CEA 2009)

Currently admits pupils from North Swindon. Potential to impact on the revenue budget by an increase in school transport


8.14 An additional 7. 9FE will be required at primary school level. In order to meet this demand:

A 2FE primary school will be provided at Tadpole Farm Existing schools are likely to be expanded to meet the

remaining need for 5.9FE, and possible options include:


25

Bridlewood Orchid Vale Red Oaks Moredon Haydon Wick Greenmeadow Haydonleigh

If the capacity cannot be fully met through this approach, an additional school(s) may need to be created. Possible options include;

Clary Road Nova Hreod Mouldon Hill Country Park St Luke’s

8.15 The strategy for the provision of school places does not

accommodate any change in provision in Wiltshire. Increased pressure on Swindon primary school places may result from additional housing in Wiltshire and has the potential to add to or exacerbate pressures in the north.


26

9 Central and South

9.1 The secondary school clusters included within the central and south assessment zone include Commonweal, Churchfields and Ridgeway. St Joseph’s Catholic College is also located in the area although the pupils are drawn from a wider geographical area. This assessment zone reflects the pattern and distribution of parental preference for schools at the moment. The major pressure on school places in this area is due to development at Wichelstowe and existing pressures on primary schools in Old Town and Town Centre that will feed through to the secondary sector by 2016. It is recognised that the Ridgeway School serves a much wider catchment area than this assessment zone.

Table 8 – Central and South Schools


Drove 3 East Wichel 2 Even Swindon 2 King William Street 0.83 Lainesmead 2 Lawn 2 Lethbridge 2.33 Mountford Manor 1.5 Oaktree 1.5 Robert Le Kyng 2 Existing Capacity Non Catholic* 19.2 FE Holy Rood Infant and Junior 2 Holy Family 1.35 St Catherine’s 1 St Mary’s 1.35 Existing Capacity Catholic* 5.7 FE Total Existing Capacity* 24.9 FE


Commonweal 7.2 Churchfields 6.7 Ridgeway 8 St Josephs (Catholic) 7.2 Total Existing Capacity 29.1 FE

* Rural primary schools within Ridgeway cluster not included

9.2 The current level of capacity for the primary schools within the Catholic cluster is 5.7FE. The 4 primary schools are located in the North, East and Central parts of the borough, although all of the schools are in or are in very close proximity to the Central and South zone set out in Figure 1. Catholic pupils are drawn from all


27

parts of the borough. However, it has been determined the best route is to include them in the Central and South area to avoid not including them within the strategy and risk overprovision of school places. All the Catholic primary schools are oversubscribed and forecast to continue to have no surplus capacity available.

School Place Demand

Existing Pressure

9.3 Forecasts in central and south Swindon anticipate up to 2.1FE of

secondary school pupils in excess of the capacity of Commonweal and Churchfields by around 2016 (shown in figure 6). This is based on pupils currently expected to transfer from local primary schools. St Joseph’s Catholic College is forecast to be oversubscribed and continue to admit pupils up to its existing capacity 7.2FE.

Figure 6 – Central and South Secondary School Pressures

Old Town & Town Centre Secondary Pressures

14.114.3

15.4

13.7

14.6 14.6

16

13.913.9

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try


Churchfields & Commonweal Forms of Entry

9.4 Based on birth rates in the area (shown in figure 7) it is anticipated

that up to 5.5FE primary school places will be required beyond existing capacity within the Commonweal and Churchfields clusters. There is expected to be surplus places within the primary schools located in the Ridgeway cluster. However these are rural schools that lie beyond a desirable threshold to transport primary school pupils.


28

Figure 7 – Central and South Primary School Pressures

Old Town & Town Centre Primary Schools

22.9

23.7

24.7

24.1

22.8

19.3

25.5

19.2 19.2

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f ch

ild

ren


Forms of Entry in Old Town & Town Centre

Growth and Peak

9.5 In addition to the existing pressure we are aware of, Wichelstowe

and the majority of development within Swindon’s urban area will also will generate around 7.8FE between them (see Table 1) for both primary and secondary school places. The anticipated pupil peak is expected to be around 10.1FE (+2.3FE).

Total Demand

9.6 The table below calculated the demand for additional school places

in the Central and South area as a result of the current school capacity, existing pressure on places, growth and then peak.

Table 9 – Central and South School Place Demand

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new

housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for


Secondary 29.1FE 0.1FE 7.8FE 7.9FE 2.3FE 10.2FE Primary (including Catholic cluster )

24.9FE -0.2FE 7.8FE 7.6FE 2.3FE 9.9FE



29

Options


9.7 To meet secondary school place needs an additional 7.9FE will be needed. Possible options to deliver these places include:

Expansion of Churchfields / Ridgeway / St Joseph’s /

Greendown / Dorcan by between 1 or 2FE (see 9.9) Creation of a new school, possible options include;

1. North Star, 2. Mannington, 3. Civic Campus, 4. Oakfield / Greenbridge, 5. Wichelstowe and 6. North Wroughton

9.8 Greendown, Dorcan and Swindon Academy currently have surplus

capacity. Whilst an element of the strategy for managing pressure in central and south will be likely to involve transportation to Greendown, the capacity at Swindon Academy is likely to be taken up by pressure in the north. Commonweal secondary school is located in an early 20th century building and the site is physically constrained, which makes it very difficult to expand. Ridgeway and St Josephs have expressed support for expansion, which could deliver up to 4FE.

Expansion

9.9 Expansion of Churchfields (1.8FE), Ridgeway (2FE) and St.

Josephs (2FE) and exploiting surplus places at Greendown (1FE) and Dorcan (1FE) could provide the additional 7.9FE to manage projected demand. Expansion would provide a cost effective solution for school place planning in central and south. However there are a number of risks: Flexibility – this approach would leave little or no surplus in

secondary school infrastructure across the whole of Swindon, making it difficult to respond to unforeseen patterns of pressure or if any of the expansions could not be achieved

School aspirations – this approach relies on the co-operation of all of Swindon’s schools south of the railway line, if they do not wish to expand, Academies would have autonomy to prevent the delivery of the strategy

Wichelstowe peak – forecasts anticipate a further 2.3FE places as a temporary peak at Wichelstowe, the removal of surplus from the Swindon will provide little or no capacity to respond to this pressure

East of Swindon phasing – although a new secondary school will be delivered east of Swindon, Dorcan will be well


30

positioned to manage secondary school pressure in the shorter term until the school is built. Dorcan will not have capacity to manage pressure from both east, central and south Swindon

West of Swindon patterns – 5FE of children from west Swindon are currently educated in Wiltshire, if this pattern changes, not only will expansion and transportation not meet demand, there will be no flexibility (above) to manage any additional pressure if surplus is taken up.

Parental preference and expectations – this approach may result in more children being transported to school. Parents generally expect school places to be provided locally, especially in a new community such as Wichelstowe.


9.10 There are a number of options, set out at 9.7 and below, to deliver a

new secondary school in central and south Swindon. There are no obvious solutions to deliver places where demand is highest and on a site that is suitable or available. The possible option to expand the schools set out at 9.7 could respond to pressure in the short and medium term, providing flexibility for parental choice, addressing unforeseen pressures and managing the temporary peak at Wichelstowe. Table 10 sets out options to meet demand.

9.11 North Star and Civic Campus are well located to meet demand.

However the Civic Campus is not big enough to meet playing field requirements and the Borough Council would have to find alternative accommodation to release the site for a school. North Star is an important part of the regeneration of central Swindon. Whilst the site is big enough and would represent regeneration in its own right, it is important for future economic development as a regional leisure facility and potential employment uses.

9.12 Wichelstowe would be well placed to manage demand from the new

development and parts of Old Town, but is not ideally positioned to respond to demand in Swindon town centre. Furthermore, the masterplan review currently underway to help restore project viability may mean the site at Wichelstowe is not deliverable. A significant proportion of the playing fields are also within medium or high flood risk zones.

9.13 Mannington, North Wroughton and Oakfield / Greenbridge are more

remote from demand but they are all sizable enough to accommodate a secondary school. The majority of the Mannington site is in medium and high flood risk zones and a significant proportion of the site is within the functional floodplain.

9.14 The land at North Wroughton is highly valued by the local

community as a green gap, which prevents coalescence between Swindon and Wroughton. It is also a strategically significant part of


31

the off-site landscape mitigation for Wichelstowe. By virtue of it being in the countryside there is a presumption against development in planning policy.

9.15 Land at Oakfield / Greenbridge is more remote from demand in Old

Town, Wichelstowe and the town centre but is suitable in other ways. The site has a legacy of education and leisure use and pitches are already on site, currently used by Swindon Rugby Club, with whom synergies could be developed. Its position to the east of centre also provides the opportunity to build in further flexibility to manage development east of Swindon and in central and south.

Table 8 – Central and South Secondary School Options

School Commonweal Churchfields Ridgeway

St Joseph’s Catholic College

Existing Capacity

7.2FE 6,2FE 8FE + 6th Form

7.2FE + 6th Form

Possible additional provision

1.8FE 2FE 2FE

Comments

A school in early 20Th century buildings which are unlikely to be extendable

School would support expansion

School would support expansion

School Dorcan (east

zone) Greendown (west zone)

Existing Capacity

7.35FE (including 1FE surplus capacity)



2FE 0.7FE

Comments

Potential to serve early stages of development of the Eastern Villages and help manage any temporary


32

peak


9.16 An additional 7.6FE will be required at primary school level. In order to meet this demand: 2 no. 2FE primary schools will be provided at Wichelstowe A 2FE primary school is proposed at Croft in Old Town from

2012 (currently under consultation and subject to feasibility) A 2FE school located in Central Swindon will be provided in

2014, possible options include:

Upham road Clarence House Broad Green Bath Road (Townsend House) The Planks car park Granville car park Spring Gardens car park Sanford House

A 1FE school, or expansion of an existing school, depending on the distribution of pressure

9.17 There was a peak in demand for places in this area for September

2009. The expectation is that although the peak will reach a plateau, although the housing developments at Angel Ridge and Royal Mead will continue to provide pressure.

9.18 It must be noted that the significant increases in pupil numbers are

in the Even Swindon and Robert Le Kyng Primary Schools catchment areas. Therefore, an option to increase the level of provision in one of these catchment areas will reduce the potentially high levels of appeals and any potential requests for transport assistance.


33

10 . East

10.1 The secondary school clusters included within the eastern assessment zone include Kingsdown and Dorcan College. The principal issues for the eastern assessment zone concern proposed development to the east of Swindon and Commonhead. Commonhead is currently in the Ridgeway catchment area and land east of Swindon is split between the Highworth Warneford and Ridgeway catchment areas. However they have been considered alongside the existing area of east Swindon.

Table 11 – East Swindon Schools


Beechcroft 3 Colebrook 1.67 Covingham 2 Eldene 2 Goddard Park 2 Grange 3 Liden 2 Nythe 1 South Marston 0.5 Total Existing Capacity 17.2


Kingsdown 8.4 Dorcan College 7.3 Total Existing Capacity 15.75

School Place Demand

Existing Surplus

10.2 Forecasts in east, without development, anticipate a surplus of

school pupils below the capacity of Kingsdown and Dorcan (shown in figure 8). This surplus is around 1FE.


34

Figure 8 – East Secondary School Pressures

Eastern Area Secondary Pressures

15.0

14.4

14.7

14.4

15.115.3

15.1

15.715.7

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try


Dorcan & Kingsdown Forms of Entry

10.3 Based on birth rates in the area (shown in Figure 9) there is surplus

capacity of up to 2.6FE across the primary schools in the Kingsdown and Dorcan area.

Figure 9 – East Primary School Pressures

Eastern Area Primary Schools

15.9

16.6

14.615.0

14.5

15.6

14.8

17.2 17.2

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

ch

ild

ren


Forms of Entry in Eastern Area

Growth and Peak

10.4 In addition to the existing pressure we are aware of, growth east of

Swindon and at Commonhead will generate around 9.25FE between them (see Table 1) for both primary and secondary school places. The anticipated pupil peak is expected to be around 13.35FE (+4.1FE). The peak from Commonhead has been


35

dismissed, as it should occur well before land east of Swindon and to a far lesser extent.

Total Demand


in the East area as a result of the current school capacity, existing pressure on places, growth and then peak.

Table 12 – East School Place Demand

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for places including the Peak

Secondary 15.7FE -1FE 9.25FE 8.25FE 4.63FE 12.88FE Primary 17.2FE -2.6FE 9.25FE 6.65FE 4.63FE 11.28FE


Options


10.6 To meet secondary school place needs an additional 8.25FE will be needed. Options to deliver these places include:

Expansion of Dorcan College and Kingsdown Transport to Highworth Warneford and Ridgeway Creation of a new school, options include east of Swindon and

Oakfield

Expansion

10.7 Dorcan (1FE) has surplus capacity at present and an element of the strategy for managing pressure in the east in the short term will involve transportation to Dorcan to take up that surplus. There is also potential to expand Dorcan by a further 2FE to assist in managing this pressure.

10.8 There is also potential to transport pupils to Highworth Warneford

(1FE) and expand and transport to Ridgeway. However the surplus at Highworth is likely to be needed, and more pressingly, by pressure in the north and Ridgeway is likely to need to be expanded to manage pressure in central and south.

10.9 Even in combination these provisions would not deliver places

needed to support growth in the east. Furthermore: There would be no secondary school places east of Swindon to

anchor the new community


36

This approach would undermine the overall strategy for managing place pressures in the north, south and central areas

It would remove all surplus from the network and still fail to provide enough places, including further pressure as a result of any temporary peak

Significant numbers of children would be transported to school, and most parents expect school places nearby, especially in a new community such as that east of Swindon

10.10 Opportunities exist at Dorcan to manage short-term pressures in the

early phases of growth and temporary peaks in pupil number towards the end, however a new school will be a prerequisite for development east of Swindon.


10.11 There are limited options to deliver a new school in the eastern

zone in close proximity to demand. A new school east of Swindon associated with development would deliver a learning campus in the heart of the community, with all the advantages that brings, capable of managing school place pressures and temporary expansion as a result of the peak onsite.

10.12 Alternatively a new school within the urban area of Swindon could

provide regeneration benefits for east Swindon’s existing communities. This approach was considered in the draft Eastern Development Area Supplementary Planning Document, however, this was with regard to a potential second school. The reduced scale of development at east of Swindon renders this option less likely to be necessary.

10.13 A school in east Swindon as an alternative, rather than in addition to

a school in the new community would be a less attractive prospect. The concern would be particularly about having no secondary school provision east of Swindon and the difficulties in crossing the A419 and transporting children off-site.

Table 13 – East Secondary School Options

School Dorcan Kingsdown

Existing Capacity

7.35FE (including 1FE surplus capacity)

8.4FE

Anticipated additional provision

2FE 0FE

Comments

Potential to serve early stages of development of the EDA and help manage any temporary peak


37

10.14 An additional 6.65FE will be required at primary school level. In

order to meet this demand:

4 no. 2FE primary schools will be provided east of Swindon South Marston primary school will be expanded by 1FE A 1FE primary school will be provided at Commonhead

10.15 It is expected that pupil numbers will continue to decline across the cluster there will be surplus places, especially in 2013.

10.16 There are proposals for a major housing development at

Commonhead and it is expected that this would generate the need for a primary school.

10.17 It would be difficult to use existing surplus places in the East to

meet some of the need for new places generated by new development at the east and Commonhead, as they are the other side of the A419 and Marlborough Road. These major roads form a natural barrier to movement of children and a review of existing school places in the area is likely to be needed.


38

11 . West

11.1 The only secondary school in the west assessment zone in the Borough is Greendown. In the School Place Planning Study (CEA, 2009) this area was included within the northern assessment zone However patterns and issues in this area are different and distinct. The west has an existing relationship with Ridgeway, but following the decision in 2008 to remove the free discretionary school transport it is likely to reduce over time. West Swindon also has connections with Wiltshire due to parental preference for alternative schools, mainly Bradon Forest in Purton and Wootton Bassett. Whilst these schools are not formally part of Swindon’s school place infrastructure but, they play an important role, which must be reflected.

11.2 The major pressure on school places in this area relates to the

knock-on impact of development elsewhere and potential transport into Greendown from the north and central south areas identified above. Additionally, development west of Swindon in Wiltshire has the potential to increase the number of pupils seeking places at Bradon Forest and Wootton Bassett and restricting the number of places available to, and currently taken up by Swindon pupils.

Table 14 – West Schools


Brook Field 2 Millbrook 1.5 Oliver Tomkins 2 Peatmoor 1 Shaw Ridge 2 Toothill 1 Tregoze 1 Westlea 1.5 Total Existing Capacity* 12 FE


Greendown 7.3FE Bradon Forest (in Wiltshire) 4FE Wootton Bassett (in Wiltshire) 1FE Total Existing Capacity 12.3 FE

* Rural primary schools within Ridgeway cluster not included

School Place Demand

Existing Pressure

11.3 Forecasts in west Swindon anticipate up to 4FE of secondary school pupils above the capacity of Greendown. However parents


39

expressing a preference for schools in Wiltshire currently offset the demand for places in West Swindon. There are 4FE of pupils travelling from Swindon to Bradon Forest and 1FE of pupils travelling from Swindon to Wootton Bassett (shown in Figure 10). As a result Greendown shows an existing surplus of 1FE.

Figure 10 – West Swindon Secondary School Pressures

West Swindon Secondary Pressures

11.2

10.3

11.3

9.9 9.9

10.7

10.2

7.37.3

12.312.3

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Fo

rms

of

En

try


Greendown Forms of Entry

Plus 5 FE Bradon Forest & Wootton Bassett

11.4 Based on birth rates in the area (shown in Figure 11) it is

anticipated that up to 0.3FE primary school places will be required beyond existing capacity.

Figure 11 – West Primary School Pressures

West Swindon Primary Schools

11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8

12.3

11.1

11.8

12 12

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

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ild

ren


Forms of Entry in West Swindon


40

Growth and Peak

11.5 In addition to the existing pressure we are aware of, Moredon

Bridge will generate demand for around 0.2FE if approved (see Table 1) for both primary and secondary school places. The anticipated pupil peak is expected to be around 0.3FE (+0.1). Whilst Wiltshire has responsibility for educating these pupils, parents could choose to send their children to a closer school in Swindon or school places in Wiltshire currently occupied by Swindon children will be reduced. Either outcome will impact on school places in Swindon.

Total Demand


in the Central and South area as a result of the current school capacity, existing pressure on places, growth and then peak.

Table 15a – West School Place Demand

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new

housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for


Secondary 7.3FE 4FE 0FE 4FE 0FE 4FE Primary 12FE 0.3FE 0FE 0.3FE 0FE 0.3FE

* Above capacity (taking existing surplus into account) Table 15b – West School Place Demand including Wiltshire capacity

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new

housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for


Swindon and Wiltshire Secondary

12.3FE -1FE 0.2FE -0.8FE 0.1FE -0.7FE

Swindon and Wiltshire Primary

12FE 0.3FE 0.2FE 0.5FE 0.1FE 0.6FE



41

Options


11.7 To meet secondary school place needs an additional 4FE will be required. However, due to the historic links with Wiltshire providing school places for Swindon pupils there is surplus capacity for pupils from the West area.

Table 16 – West Secondary School Options

School GreendownBradon Forest

(Wiltshire)

Wootton Bassett

(Wiltshire)

Total places

available

Existing Capacity



0.7FE 4FE (available for Swindon pupils)

1FE (available for Swindon pupils)

5FE


11.8 An additional 1FE will be required at primary school level. In order

to meet this demand:

1 new primary school is anticipated to be provided at Ridgeway Farm

11.9 The numbers of births are all expected to be within the overall

number of places available with the exception of September 2014. However, historically there have been slight fluctuations in the birth rate in this area.


42

12 . Rural

12.1 Highworth Warneford and Ridgeway are the rural secondary schools in Swindon. However they have already been included in the north and central and south assessment zones respectively due to their proximity and connections to Swindon. The principal issues for the rural assessment zone concern the increased surplus in Highworth Primary Schools as a result of an ageing population in the town.

Table 17 – Rural Swindon Schools


Bishopstone 0.23 Chiseldon 1 Eastrop 2 St Andrews 1 Wanborough 1 Westrop 1.5 Wroughton 3 Total Existing Capacity 9.7

School Place Demand

Existing Pressure

12.2 Any capacity at the two secondary schools within the rural areas (Highworth Warneford and Ridgeway) has already been considered under the North and Central South assessment zones. Therefore, this section considers the potential impact of development in the rural areas on the existing capacity at primary level.

12.3 There is expected to be surplus places within the primary schools

located in Highworth and Ridgeway. However these are rural schools that lie beyond a desirable threshold to transport primary school pupils from the urban area of Swindon.


43

Figure 12 – Rural Primary School Pressures Rural Primary Schools

7.78.0

7.4

6.6

7.0

9.7

6.9

9.7 9.7

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trend 2015 Trend 2016

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f c

hil

dre

n


Forms of Entry in Rural Area

Growth and Peak

12.4. In addition to the existing pressure we are aware of, growth in the rural areas will generate around 0.5FE (see table 1) for both primary and secondary school places. The anticipated pupil peak is expected to be around 0.75FE (+0.25FE). Total Demand

12.5. The table below calculated the demand for additional primary school places in the rural area as a result of the current school capacity, existing pressure on places, growth and then peak.

Table 18 – Rural School Place Demand

Capacity Existing

pressure*

Demand from new

housing growth

Demand for

places Peak

Demand for places including the Peak

Primary 9.7FE -2.7FE 0.5FE -2.2FE 0.25FE -1.95FE Secondary School Places

12.6. To meet the existing pressures, growth and peak in the urban area

of Swindon the existing capacity at Highworth Warneford (1FE) and a 2FE expansion of Ridgeway have been considered above.



44

12.7 There will be 2.2FE of surplus places in the rural area spread across the 7 schools in the Highworth Warneford and Ridgeway clusters.

13 . School Options Summary

13.1 The previous two sections have provided an overview of projected school place demand and its distribution. There are a number of options available to the local authority in developing its strategy for managing school place demand in the future.

13.2 The purpose of this section is to develop a series of strategic options

for meeting school place demand. This report defers detailed matters to future feasibility assessments but seeks to establish an in principle approach and preferred options to guide that feasibility assessments.

13.3 Table 19 and 20(below) set out a summary of the total school place

requirements by area from the previous sections. Table 19 – Total School Place Demand

Area North Central South

East West and

Wilts Total

Secondary 6.7FE 7.9FE 8.25FE -0.8FE 22.05FE Primary 7.9FE 7.6FE 6.65FE 0.5FE 22.6 FE

Table 207 – Total School Place Demand with Peak

Area North Central South

East West and

Wilts Total

Secondary 8.15FE 10.2FE 12.88FE -0.7FE 30.53FE Primary 9.35FE 9.9FE 11.28FE 0.6FE 31.13FE

13.4 The development of options depends on the extent to which the local

authority is willing and able to transport pupils to use surplus places, expand existing schools and build new schools. Consultation on the School Organisation Plan 2010-2013 provides an insight into Swindon school children’s view on the Local Authority’s approach to School Organisation including surplus places, optimum school size, mixed classes and transport. The results of this survey are included at Appendix 1.

13.5 Transportation, of secondary school pupils in particular, to schools

with surplus capacity elsewhere in the town and Borough: Requires less capital cost Is unpopular with parents, who generally expect the opportunity

to send their children to a local school nearby Removes flexibility from the network if too much surplus is

utilised


45

Will be increasingly difficult to control as more schools become autonomous

Undermines the role of schools as the heart of their communities

13.6 Expanding existing schools:

Can be practically difficult or unfeasible, which can lead to high

capital costs Normally has lower revenue costs, as the leadership,

administration and supporting infrastructure is already in place Others schools may request expansion in the interests of

fairness, particularly relevant with the potential for schools to become academies

Can put pressure on schools and the quality of the learning environment if schools become too big, particularly in more demanding communities

Schools are retained in the heart of the community depending on proximity to demand

13.7 Building new schools:

High capital costs for the delivery of new infrastructure and

ongoing maintenance High revenue costs in establishing a new leadership and

administration structure Potentially lower revenue costs if a new school is federated to

an existing one Existing schools may object if they feel growth could have been

managed within these schools Suitable sites can be difficult to find in established communities

and urban areas in close proximity to demand Should provide modern, high quality learning environments in

the heart of their communities Strategic Secondary School Options

13.8 The previous sections have considered the local issues around transportation, expansion and building new schools. In considering these in combination the report identified four possible strategic options:

A. No Expansion and 3 New Schools:

3 new secondary schools in the north, east and south /

central zones Expansion of Dorcan College to manage short-term

demand east of Swindon


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Maximum flexibility and capacity to manage future pressure

B. Managed Expansion and 2 New Schools:

2 new secondary schools in the east and south / central zones

Expansion of Isambard / Nova, Ridgeway and Dorcan College

Utilise surplus at Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford

Flexibility and capacity to manage uncertainty in each locality

C. Maximum Expansion and 1 new school:

1 new secondary school in the east zone Expansion of Isambard / Nova, Ridgeway, Churchfields,

Dorcan College, Greendown and St. Joseph’s Catholic College

Utilise surplus at Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford

There would be almost no flexibility and capacity in the secondary school network to manage future pressure

D. Maximum Expansion and Phasing:

1 new secondary school in the east zone Exploit surplus at Highworth Warneford and Swindon

Academy Transport to Greendown and transport to and expand

Dorcan from the north until the peak subsides Expansion of Ridgeway, Churchfields, Dorcan College,

Greendown and St. Joseph’s Catholic College There would be almost no flexibility and capacity in the

secondary school network to manage future pressure 13.9 In all options, the report recommends that a new school will be

required in east Swindon as a pre-requisite to development. The potential for providing a new school in the existing urban area has been discounted at this stage, as a new school will be important to anchor the new community.

13.10 There is more flexibility around how school places are provided in the

north and a degree of uncertainty in terms of where school place demand will stabilise following the peak of the Northern Development Area. Nevertheless there is a clear and present demand for school places in north Swindon, which must be met either through removing surplus and transportation, expansion of existing schools or building new schools.

13.11 The greatest flexibility and uncertainty around managing school places

is in the central and south assessment zone. A new school could be


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provided or a programme of phased expansion and transport to the north, east and west could be implemented. However, development at Wichelstowe and existing pressures in the town centre and Old Town will require investment to manage school places.

13.12 A number of site options are considered in central and south zone.

However this report does not recommend that Mannington, North Wroughton or Civic Campus be taken forward as credible sites. Each of these sites has scored poorly in the assessment matrix for various reasons. If these issues can be overcome then the suitability of these sites may increase. However the likelihood of overcoming them is low and the risks associated with them considered too high to recommend them in this report.

13.13 Mannington site is almost entirely within a medium and high flood risk

zone, which in addition to being problematic for the school, has the potential for development to affect flood risk in nearby residential and commercial property. As a consequence this site is not recommended as suitable.

13.14 The principal reason North Wroughton is excluded is that it is too

remote to meet demand where it exists in the town centre and Old Town. Furthermore this land is strategically significant to the community in Wroughton in preventing coalescence between Swindon and the village.

13.15 The Civic Campus although well positioned, is not big enough and has

little prospect of delivery due to its current use as the Council’s main offices.

13.16 Whilst there is no demand for school places in the west, the

relationship with schools in Wiltshire is a risk to the strategy. The more flexibility remains in the network, the better the local authority will be able to respond to any changing patterns of preference.

Option A - No Expansion and 3 New Schools

13.17 Option A would deliver three new secondary schools, directly matching projected demand. This would include a new school associated with development east of Swindon as a learning campus within the community. The surplus places and expansion at Dorcan Collegewould be necessary to manage pupils in the short to medium term.

13.18 A new school in north Swindon would be more difficult to deliver in

close proximity to demand because of the limited availability of sites. St Luke’s, Groundwell Park and Ride and a new school next to Nova Hreod are all potential options but all are over a kilometre from demand in Redhouse, Oakhurst and Haydon End.


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13.19 A new school would also be provided in central and south zone. Whilst Wichelstowe, North Star and Oakfield are not perfect in terms of proximity to demand or the potential impact on other Council strategies, they are the most suitable options to deliver a school in central and south Swindon.

13.20 The situation in west Swindon is fairly stable at present with pressure

being managed by schools in Wiltshire, however the long-term stability of these patterns is uncertain and is a risk to the Council. There is further uncertainty associated with free schools and academies and peak pressure from the growth areas. This approach provides maximum flexibility for the Council to respond to these and other uncertainties.

Table 21 – Option 1 Secondary School Provision

New Schools/Expansions Provision

New school east of Swindon 8FE New school in north Swindon 8FE New school in central / south Swindon 8FE Expansion of Dorcan 2FE Total provision 26FE

Option B - Managed Expansion and 2 New Schools

13.21 Option B would match projected demand by delivering two new

schools and by expanding those most willing and best positioned to meet growth. A new school would be provided east of Swindon as described in paragraph 13.9 and in central and south Swindon on as set out in paragraph 13.11.

13.22 Demand in north Swindon would be met by expanding provision at

Isambard and/or Nova Hreod and exploiting surplus at Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford. Isambard is better positioned to meet projected demand but Nova Hreod has more land to achieve it. Expansion could be provided entirely at one school or as a combination of both.

13.23 Further expansions would be required to manage temporary peaks

and early phases at Wichelstowe and the early phases east of Swindon. There would still be flexibility to manage uncertainty associated with existing patterns in west Swindon and the other uncertainties highlighted in paragraph 13.20 at schools such as Greendown, Churchfields and St. Joseph’s.


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New school east of Swindon 8FE New school in central / south Swindon 8FE Expansion of Isambard / Nova 5FE Surplus at Swindon Academy 2FE Surplus at Highworth Warneford 1FE Expansion of Dorcan 2FE Total provision 26FE

Option C - Maximum Expansion and 1 New School

13.24 Option C would meet school place needs by expanding 7 of Swindon’s

11 existing secondary schools and transporting children from areas of pressure to wherever school places are available. A new school would be provided east of Swindon as described in paragraph 13.9. Demand in north Swindon would be met by expanding Isambard and Nova Hreod and utilising surplus at Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford.

13.25 In central and south, instead of providing a new school, a programme

of phased expansions would be implemented to match demand as it emerges. In the short to medium term expansion of Ridgeway, Churchfields and St. Joseph’s would respond to pressure from the town centre, Old Town and Wichelstowe. In the longer term, exploiting any potential surplus, and expansion at Dorcan and surplus at Greendown would manage demand in he longer term.

13.26 Paragraph 13.20 highlights the risks associated with current patterns

of provision between west Swindon and Wiltshire. In option C all surplus would have been removed from the network. As a consequence, there would not be enough places in the Borough to meet need or to respond to any other unforeseen pressures on school places.

13.27 Option C would also significantly reduce parental choice preference.

If under these circumstances, parents and schools were unsatisfied with the levels of service, schools would be more likely to convert to academy status and the community would be more likely to pursue options around free schools, with financial implications for the Council. This would be a high risk and high impact position for the Council.


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New school east of Swindon 8FE Expansion or Isambard / Nova 5FE Expansion of Ridgeway 2FE Surplus at Swindon Academy 2FE Surplus at Highworth Warneford 1FE Expansion of Churchfields 2FE Expansion of St. Joseph’s 2FE Expansion and surplus at Dorcan 3FE Surplus at Greendown 1FE Total provision 26FE

Option D - Maximum Expansion and Phasing

13.28 Option D is similar to Option C without expanding on the PFI sites of

Isambard and Nova Hreod. Instead, the existing surplus at Swindon Academy and Highworth Warneford would be utilised in the first phase. When demand exceeds this supply, pupils would then be transported to exploit surplus at Dorcan and Greendown. When this surplus is removed, Dorcan would be expanded.

13.29 The expansion of Dorcan would manage the peak from the NDA in the

short term, however as the peak subsides in would also manage early pressure from development east of Swindon and longer term peak pressures from the central / south area, Wichelstowe in particular. Provision in central / south would be met by expanding Ridgeway, Churchfields and St. Joseph’s and potential surplus at Greendown and Dorcan in the longer term, expanded on in paragraph 13.22.

13.30 As set out in paragraph 13.27, the removal of all surplus places would

put the Council in a high impact and high risk position in managing long term school place needs. Option D would increase that risk further. The Council ultimately has no control over the phasing and delivery rate of housing. Therefore there is no guarantee that peak pressures will not arise and remain at the same time and patterns of parental preference could change as a consequence of development. If this happens there would not only be a shortfall in places, but a very significant shortfall. Secondary school places are very difficult to provide at short notice.


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Appendix 1 - Analysis of questionnaire with primary and secondary pupils

As part of the consultation on the draft School Organisation Plan 2010 – 2013 a questionnaire on the principles behind school organisation and some Local Authority policies was sent to children at Orchid Vale and Lawn Primary Schools and Nova Hreod School (picked at random). The questionnaire was tailored for pupils and did not rely on the reading and understanding of the whole School Organisation Plan. Although the questions were not directly related to the content of the document itself they were on a range of subjects that impact on the Local Authority’s approach to School Organisation including surplus places, school size, mixed classes and travelling. Q1 – Use of surplus places 41% of respondents from the primary schools strongly agreed or agreed that existing places in schools should be used before the building of new facilities. The results were different from secondary school pupils of which 27% strongly agreed or agreed.


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Primary responses Q1. Children should fill up all the schools in Swindon before a new school is built

2 - Agree17%

3 - Neither Agree or Disagree25%

4 - Disagree28%

5 - Strongly disagree5%

No answer given1%

1 - Strongly agree24%

1 - Strongly agree

2 - Agree

3 - Neither Agree or Disagree

4 - Disagree

5 - Strongly disagree

No answer given

Secondary responses

Q1. Existing surplus places should be used before new facilities are provided?


2 - Agree15%


4 - Disagree13%


No answer given3%

1 - Strongly agree

2 - Agree


4 - Disagree


No answer given

Q2 – Entitlement to new schools It is unsurprising that the responses from this question were very similar in both sectors and strongly in favour of pupils having access to new facilities. Primary and Secondary responses

Q2. All students should have access to new schools?


2 - Agree41%


4 - Disagree10%


No answer given1%

1 - Strongly agree

2 - Agree


4 - Disagree


No answer given

Q3 – Attending an alternative if there are no places at the local school


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27% of all pupils who responded strongly agreed or agreed that they were happy to attend an alternative school. However, 54% strongly disagree or disagree with this as an approach to school place planning. Primary and Secondary responses

Q3. Are you happy to travel to a school further away if there are not places at your local school?


2 - Agree18%

3 - Neither Agree or Disagree18%4 - Disagree

16%


No answer given1%

1 - Strongly agree

2 - Agree


4 - Disagree


No answer given

Q4 – Length of time travelling There was a slight difference between primary school pupils who preferred the shorter time (5-10 mins) to secondary school pupils who expected to take longer (10-30 mins) to reach their destination. Primary responses

Q4. How long should it take for children to travel to school?

5 mins28%

10 mins64%

30 mins4%

45 mins4%

5 mins

10 mins

30 mins

45 mins

Secondary responses


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How long should it take for children to travel to school?

10 mins52%

30 mins39%

45 mins4%

5 mins3%

1 hour1%

No answer given1%

5 mins

10 mins

30 mins

45 mins

1 hour

No answer given

Q5 – Method of travel As shown in the chart below, for both sectors the preferred method of travelling to school was clearly walking or cycling Primary and secondary responses

How should children get to school?

Walk48%

Cycle30%

Car12%

Bus7%

Other0%

No answer given3%

Walk

Cycle

Car

Bus

Other

No answer given

Q6 – Size of School


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In the primary sector there was a clear preference for smaller schools of one to two forms of entry, whereas in the secondary sector there was a more mixed picture from six to ten forms of entry, although the preferred size chosen more than the others was eight forms of entry. Primary responses

Q5. How big should your school be?

1 class per year37%

2 classes per year60%

No answer given1%3 classes per year

2%

1 class per year

2 classes per year

3 classes per year

No answer given

Secondary responses

How big should your school be?






6 classes per year

7 classes per year

8 classes per year

9 classes per year

10 classes per year

Q7 – Mixed classes The responses to this question were similar, however, pupils in primary schools appeared to be slightly more amenable to sharing a class with another year group than secondary aged pupils.


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Primary responses Would you be happy in the same class as:

Younger children11%

Older children25%

Neither64%

Younger children

Older children

Neither

Secondary responses

Would you be happy in the same class as:

Younger children15%

Older children12%

Neither72%

No answer given1%

Younger children

Older children

Neither

No answer given

Conclusion A number of the responses received reflect the current planning position of the Local Authority. At appears that the majority of pupils would prefer a new built local school with sufficient school places, without mixed classes and within a distance that can be easily accessed by walking or bicycle. The preferred size of schools fit with the existing models of two forms of entry at primary and eight forms of entry at secondary. There have not been any fundamental changes to the School Organisation Plan as a result of the consultation with pupils. However, the questionnaire has proved a very useful exercise to asses our existing criteria and approach for school organisations and it is helpful to test our policies and practices with the end users.

Swindon School Place Planning Study Update v3

Documents

Transcript of Swindon School Place Planning Study Update v3