Sustainable Transportation:

Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer

December 11, 20181

Sustainable Transportation Defined

2

• Clean transportation technology

• Reduction in vehicle travel (VMT),

via expansion of mobility options

• Improved health, mobility, economic

opportunity, and quality of life

• Environmental stewardship

to achieve

Outline for Today’s Talk

• Where do we need & want to go to achieve Sustainable Transportation?

• What tools (policies, programs, and regulations) are we using to get there?

• What challenges are we encountering now, and what are we doing to

address them?

• What emerging challenges do we see on the horizon, and what does

CARB have planned to address them?

3

Where do we need and want to go to

achieve Sustainable Transportation?

California’s Climate & Air Quality Goals

NOX Emissions, South Coast Air Basin

(All Sources)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Statewide

(All Sources)

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

To

ns

pe

r d

ay

Current Programs

2023 South

Coast

Target

2031

Target

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MM

TC

O2e

pe

r ye

ar Reference Scenario

SB 32 40%

Reduction

Executive Order

Carbon Neutrality

1990 Level

Source: CARB, 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan;

2018 Exec. Order B-55-18

Source: CARB, 2016 Mobile Source Strategy

2030 Transportation Sector Targets

6

Clean transportation technology

• 5 million ZEVs & PHEVs

• 100% of new buses = ZEVs

• Transition freight to zero-emission

everywhere feasible

Reduce per capita VMT

25% from 2005 levels (by 2035)

- 1.6 miles/person/day

Zero Emissions Vehicle & Plug-In Hybrid

Electric Vehicle Cumulative Sales & Targets

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030V

eh

icle

Sa

les

US California

CA 2025

target

CA 2030

target

Reduce Vehicle

Emissions Rate

Reduce Vehicle

Miles Traveled

Change Travel

Mode Mix

Emissions Inventory

+

Addressing Emissions Targets Requires

Aggressive Strategies in Many Areas

7

+

Transportation Sector: Key Strategies

8

High density transit-

oriented housing

Walkable and bikeable

communities

Clean and efficient

freight system

Cleaner fuels and

vehicles

Achieving Sustainable Transportation

9

Efficient

Land Use

More

Affordable

Housing

Investments in

Low Income &

DACs

Improved

Access to Key

Destinations

Safe & Convenient

Active

Transportation,

Transit

Reduce Vehicle

Emissions Rate

Reduce Vehicle

Miles Traveled

Change Travel

Mode Mix

Sustainable Transportation

+ +

Efforts to Date

10

Reducing Pollution in

Burdened Communities Increasing Access to

Clean Mobility Options

Funding & Better

Planning for Active

Transportation & Transit

What tools* are we using to achieve

Sustainable Transportation?

*policies, programs, and regulations

Cleaner Cars for

Cleaner Air & Advanced

Clean Cars

CARB Programs Working toward

Sustainable Transportation

12

Sustainable

Communities & Climate

Protection Program (SB

375)

Climate Change

Investments (Greenhouse Gas Reduction

Fund)

Community Air

Protection Program(AB 617)

Heavy-Duty

Vehicle Regulations

Low Carbon

Fuel Standard

Long-Awaited Transportation

Renaissance is Happening

13

Anticipated Cost Declines

for EV Technology

14

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Batte

ry C

ost

-$/k

Wh

Year for Projection

BNEF

BNEF

UBS

UBS

2016 TBC Report

2017 TBC Report

2018 TBC Report

2018 TBC Report

Projections continue to move

downward over time

What challenges are we encountering now

and what are we doing to address them?

Californians Continue to Drive Alone

as Primary Commute Option

16

Source: American Community

Survey

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%Commuters Driving Alone

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Annual Per-Capita Transit Boardings

SCAG SANDAG SACOG MTC

2018 Progress Report: “California is not on track to meet

the GHG reductions expected under SB 375…”

17

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Change s

ince 2

005

Per capita SB 375 CO2 Per capita VMT SCS anticipated performance

Why is this happening, and what can we do?

• Why?

• Current laws & incentives

• Politics

• Competing mandates

• Etc.

• What to do?

• Systemic changes are

necessary

18

Course Correction on SB 375 Implementation

2018 Progress Report Key Recommendation:

• Form interagency body for a plan of action

Plus “Opportunity Areas”:

• Improve targeting of transportation, housing, and climate incentives

• Prioritize affordable housing near jobs

• Pilot test innovation

• Fiscally-sustainable, equitable transportation funding and policy

• Open data for planning and monitoring

19

Feds Propose to Revise Vehicle Standards

20

Combined Passenger Car/Truck Compliance Targets in California

CARB’s Response: Revoke “Deemed to Comply”

Board action

ensures federal

rollback on fuel

efficiency and

emission standards

won’t impact

California vehicles

21

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2E

mis

sio

ns

(MM

TC

O2/y

ea

r)

Light-Duty Vehicle On-Road Fleet CO2 Emissions

Current California GHG standards Federal NPRM Proposal

12 MMT of Reductions Lost

Under Federal Proposal

What emerging challenges are on the horizon?

What does CARB have planned to address them?

Emerging Challenges & Opportunities

• Net effect of automated vehicles and shared mobility services

• Achieving sustainable freight

• Lack of affordable housing and implications for VMT

• Carbon neutrality by 2045

• Federal and state interactions

23

Unknowns about the Automated Vehicle Future

24

• Large uncertainties

even when

considering just

one possible

outcome variable:

energy

consumption

• What might the

implications be for

GHGs, equity,

etc.?

Ease of travel

Travel cost reduction

Higher highway

speeds

Increased features

New user groups

Mode switch

Incre

ase e

nerg

y c

onsum

ption

De

cre

ase e

nerg

y c

onsum

ption

Vehicle/powertrain resizing

Platooning

Vehicle right-sizing

Eco-driving

De-emphasized

performance

Improved crash avoidance

Changed mobility services

Congestion mitigation

Source: Wadud et al. (2016)

*Now posted at OPR’s Automated Vehicles website*:

Automated Vehicle Principles for Healthy

and Sustainable Communities*

State’s Efforts to Nudge AVs Toward Sustainable Transportation Goals

1. Shared use

2. Pooled

3. Low-emissions

4. Right-sized

4. Part of an efficient multimodal

system

5. Efficient land use

6. Complete and livable streets

7. Transportation equity

25

New Requirements for Fleets

Governor’s Executive Order to begin fleet

regulation

• Light-duty and heavy-duty

• Likely select fleets initially

SB 1014 (Skinner)

• Ride hailing fleets

• Include automated fleet vehicles

• New mechanisms to address VMT

• Encourage ZEVs

26

Freight Actions Milestones

27

ZE Local Trucks

Low-

Emission

Diesel Fuel

ZE Forklifts

Freight Handbook

Module 1

Low NOx Trucks

ZE TRUs

ZE Ships at Berth

ZE Truck

Certification

Truck

Phase 2 GHG

Select SIP

Commitments

Lower Truck In-use Emissions

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Non-preempted

Locomotives

ZE Cargo

Handling

Equipment

Freight Handbook

(Additional Modules)

Idling at

Rail Yards+

Freight Hub

Enforcement

SPB Ports Drayage Truck Rate

ZE Drayage

Trucks

Harbor Craft

Additional Actions

Lack of Affordable Housing Means

Living Farther from Work

Percent of Total Homes Needed that have

Received Permits, by Income Level

“The supply of housing in many regions is a small fraction of the need, particularly homes affordable to low-income communities, which is contributing to lengthening commutes.”

CARB’s 2018 Progress Report

28

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Very Low Low Moderate AboveModerate

Southern California Association of Governments

SCAG is ~4 years (50%) into

their 8-year cycle (2016 data)

Source: Annual Housing Report

Data excludes jurisdictions without complete reports.

Accelerate Vehicle Electrification

for Carbon Neutrality• Vehicle costs declining, but

need new actions to spur rapid demand growth for Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Need to accelerate EV/hydrogen fuel infrastructure growth

• Need strategic plans for vehicle-grid integration in communities

29

Early Next Steps

• CARB’s new Sustainable

Transportation &

Communities Division

• CARB is developing

permanent relationships

with other agencies, like

California Transportation

Commission

30

Sustainable Transportation

& Communities

Division

Research

Climate Investments

Advanced Clean Cars

Transportation

Planning

Thank you!

31

Backup / additional slides

32

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MM

tCO

2e

pe

r ye

ar Current Programs

Transportation Sector Goals

On-Road California GHG Emission Trends

(under current programs) and GHG Targets

Zero Emissions Vehicle & Plug-In Hybrid

Electric Vehicle Cumulative Sales & Targets

33

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030V

eh

icle

Sa

les

US California

CA 2025

target

CA 2030

target

ZEV Sales are Gaining Momentum &

Market Share

34

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

An

nu

al

Mark

et

Sh

are

(p

erc

en

t)

Veh

icle

Sale

s

Annual California ZEV and PHEV Sales (through August 2018)

BEV PHEV FCEV Market ShareSource: Auto Alliance Sales Dashboard

HDV Proposed Electric Drive Programs

• Innovative Clean Transit (Sept 2018)

• Transit fleet transition to zero-emission by 2040

• Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle (Feb 2019)

• Public and private fixed-route airport shuttles

• All zero-emission by 2035

• Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification (Feb 2019)

• Ensure greater transparency and in-use support for HD electric and fuel-cell vehicles and the powertrains they use

• Advanced Clean Trucks (Late-2019)

• Manufacturer sales requirement

• Portion of California sales as zero-emission

• Start with model year 2024 (Class 2B+)

35

HDV Proposed electric drive programs (cont.)

• Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Bus (Dec 2018)

• Public and private fixed-route airport shuttle buses

• All zero-emission by 2036

• Zero-Emission Powertrain Certification (Dec 2018)

• Ensure reliability and performance for ZE trucks and

buses

• Zero-Emission Drayage Truck Rule (2022)

• Implementation 2026+

36

Carbon Pricing & Investments

37

Taking Action in Communities

Most Impacted by Air

Pollution

38

10 initial communities were selected to

serve as statewide models