Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L5.pdf · 2005...
Transcript of Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L5.pdf · 2005...
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
Sustainable Energy:
The Solar Strategy(Continued from Lecture 4)
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1980 1990 2000
Wind Energy PotentialGlobally: 27% of earth’s land surface is class 3 (250-300 W/m2 at 50 m) or greater
- potential of 50 TW
4% utilization of > class 3 land area will provide 2 TW
US: 6% of land suitable for wind energy development - 0.5 TW
US electricity consumption ~ 0.4 TW
Off shore installations provide additional resource
Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Stanford University, 2005
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Global Wind Energy Growth
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2005 World Total: 59,322 MW
2005 Installations : 11,679 MW
Growth rate: 25%
2020 Prediction: 1,245,000 MW*
Equivalent to 1000 Nuclear power plants
12% of world electricity generation
Global Wind Energy
Country 2005 MW % of total
Germany 18,428 31.0
Spain 10,027 16.9
United States 9,149 15.4
India 4,430 7.5
Denmark 3,122 5.3
Italy 1,717 2.9
United Kingdom 1,353 2.3
China 1,260 2.1
Japan 1,231 2.1
Netherlands 1,219 2.1
* According to Wind Force 12
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Wind Power
GE WIND1.5 MW
GE WIND3.6 MW
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Boeing 747-200
GE 3.6 MW
Large Scale Wind Turbine
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Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h45
30
15
Wind Energy Costs Trends
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: June 2002
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States with most wind energy installed, by capacity (MW)
1 California - 2,096 MW 2 Texas - 1,293 MW 3 Minnesota - 615 MW 4 Iowa - 632 MW 5 Wyoming - 285 MW
US Wind Energy Installations
Largest wind farms operating the U.S. (MW)
1 Stateline, Oregon-Washington - 300 MW 2 King Mountain, Texas - 278 MW 3 New Mexico Wind Energy Center, New Mexico - 204 MW 4 Storm Lake, Iowa - 193 MW 5 Colorado Green, Colorado - 162 MW 6 High Winds, California - 162 MW
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Biomass is a widely used term referring to a number of biosolids and organic materials. Depending on the geographical and political context, the term “biomass” is also used for different purposes.
Biomass can be defined as: - Plant and other growing species capable of being used as fuel.-Organic material mainly composed of carbohydrateand lignin compounds, the building blocks of which are the elements carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.-Stored form of solar energy relying on the process of photosynthesis
Some examples of biomass are:
Fuel wood; Tree barks; Sugar cane bagasse, Wheat straw
Switch grass; Corn cobs; Rice hull; Vineyard pruning
Coconut shells and Almond shell
Biomass
Source: http://www.energy.kth.se/compedu/webcompedu/index.html
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Miscanthus as Feedstock
20 tons/acre? (20 tons/acre? (www.bical.netwww.bical.net))1010--30 tons/acre (30 tons/acre (www.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdfwww.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdf))
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Biomass
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
12
9
6
3
0
Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
CO
E c
ents
/kW
hBiomass
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Other Renewable Energy
Tidal energy:
The power of the tides is harnessed by building a low dam or barrage in which the rising waters are captured and allowed to flow backthrough electricity generating turbines.
Geothermal energy:
Heat from within the earth is the source. Hot rocks near the surface can heat water in underground aquifers to provide hot water or steam.
Biomass 750 km2
Geothermal 0.3 km2
Wind 79 km2
Photovoltaics 12 km2
Solar thermal 8 km2
Surface area required to produce 100 MW
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Electricity Generation Costs
Current energy
cost
US cents/kWh
Potential future
energy cost
US cents/kWh
Turnkey investment
cost
US $/kWh
Biomass 5-15 4-10 900-3000
Geothermal 2-10 1-8 800-3000
Wind 5-13 3-10 1100-1700
Solar
Photovoltaics
Concentrating Solar
Power
Low temperature heat
10-25
5-15
3-10
3-15
3-10
2-5
5000-10000
3000-4000
500-1500
Renewable
Energy
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Source: Exxon Mobil, 2002 and modified by AK
Electricity Production Cost
Residential consumer cost of electricity in 2005
*
* Integrated gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) with Capture and Sequestration
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Large
Small
Fossil-Fueled Renewable-Fueled
Hybrids
• Diesels• Microturbines• Fuel Cells
• Coal-fired Boilers
• Coal-fired Fluid Bed
• Combined Cycle
• Combustion Turbine
• Solar Central Receiver
• Wind Farms• Solar Trough
• Biomass• Wind Machines
• Solar Dish• Photovoltaics
• Energy Efficiency
Storage
Source: Mervin Brown, NREL
Fossil and Renewable Energy Domains
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MicropowerA
vg. G
ener
atio
n C
ost,
$/M
W
1990 1980
50 200 600 1,000
1930
1950
1970
Optimal generation plant size for a single plant based on cost per megawatt [MW], 1930-1990
Source: Charles E. Bayless, “Less is More: Why Gas Turbines Will Transform Electric Utilities.” Public Utilities Fortnightly 12/1/94
Plant Size (MW)
Source: Mervin Brown, NREL
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Centralized Power System Distributed Power System
Future Power System
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0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Wind
PV
Fuel Cells
Microturbines
Small Turbines
Diesel Engines
Conventional GasEngines
KW
FutureToday
Sources: Arthur D. Little, 01/2000;Resource Dynamics Corp. 02/2001and UTC estimates
Power Output Ranges
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0
1000
2000
3000
Average U.S.fossil fuel plant
Microturbine Fuel cell Combinedcycle gasturbine
Fuel cell(with co-
generation)
(Pounds of CO2 per 1000 kWh)
Source: UTC estimates
CO2 Emissions
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Sustainable Electricity
Power Generation requirements:
1. More power with less primary energy through efficiency improvements – Technology
2. Affordable and reliable power for every one – Technology & governments
3. Reduced dependency on fossil fuel – Citizens & governments4. Environmentally friendly and sustainable solutions – Technology
& governments 5. Comply with national policies – governments 6. Economically competitive solutions (effects standard of living) –
Technology & governments
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US CO2 Emissions in 2000
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Transportation Energy Consumption
Quadrillion Btu
Source: Annual Energy outlook - 2004, Energy Information Administration
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Light Duty Vehicles by Fuel Type
Thousands of Vehicles sold
Source: Annual Energy outlook - 2004, Energy Information Administration
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Transportation Fuel Efficiency
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Performance
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Vehicle Life Time Energy Consumption
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Vehicle Total Energy Use
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Fossil Fuel Use
Legend Legend EtoHEtoH = Ethanol; = Ethanol; AlloAllo.= Allocation ; .= Allocation ; DispDisp.= Displacement.= DisplacementSource: Biofuels by Source: Biofuels by VinodVinod KhoslaKhosla
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Gasolin
eDies
elNap
thaCNG
Methan
ol
FischerT
ropsc
h Dies
el
Compresse
d Hyd
rogen
Liquid Hyd
rogen
Electro
lysis
Hydro
genE85
(cell
ulose)
Ethanol (c
ellulose
)
Non-FossilFossil
BTU
per
Mill
ion
BTU
Fue
l Del
iver
ed
Petroleum Natural GasRenewable/Electricity
Source: Source: ““Well-To-Wheel Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Analysis”, Norman Brinkman, GM Research & Development
Well to Tank Energy Consumption
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US Biomass Resource
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US Biomass
…or ~30% of U.S. transportation fuel supply!!
Turning South Dakota into…
Farm acres
Tons/acre
Gallons/ton
Thousand barrels/day
Today Tomorrow
…a member of OPEC?!
44 Million
5
60
857
44 Million
15
80
3,429
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Nigeria
Thousand barrels/day
2,011
2,376
1,515
2,509
Qatar
Saudi
UAE
818
9,101
2,478
South Dakota 3,429
Source: Ceres Company PresentationSource: Ceres Company Presentation
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Farmer EconomicsPer acre economics of dedicated biomass crops vs. traditional row crops
Biomass Corn WheatGrain yield (bushel) N/A 162 46Grain price ($/bushel) N/A $2 $3Biomass yield (tons) 15 2 2Biomass price ($/ton) $20 $20 $20Total revenue $300 $364 $178
Amortized fixed costs $36 $66 $36Variable costs $84 $168 $75
Net return $180 $120 $57
Source: Ceres Company PresentationSource: Ceres Company Presentation
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
Wind Turbine
PV Array
Short-term Energy Storage
BalancerLoad
Heat Recovery
Electric line
H2 piping
Heat stream
Legend
Off-siteLoads
Hydrogen StorageH2
FuelingElectrolyzer
LocalLoads
Fuel Cells and Engines
Renewable H2 Energy System
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Water
Oxygen
Electrolysis
Energy Hydrogen
CO2
ConventionalFuels
Biomass
HydrogenStorage
Hydrogen
FuelProcessor
Oxygen (air)
Water
Fuel CellEnergy
HydrogenStorage
Hydrogen Economy
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Summary
Edison anticipated a highly dispersed electricity system, with individual businesses generating their own power - Renewable energy is ideally suited to realize this goal.
The cost gap between renewable energy and conventional power continues to close.
New business models will evolve around renewable and micropowertechnologies.
Biofuels made from cellulosic biomass will become significant energy source for transportation sector.
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Home workDue on September 19, 2006
1. Compare the total purchase costs of a nominally 2.5 kW (peak) photovoltaic system for the following three choices of solar modules:
a) First generation crystalline silicon modules of 15% energy conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $240/m2;
b) Second generation thin film modules of 10% conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $50/m2;
c) Third generation polymer modules of 50% conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $80/m2.
Assume balance of system components, include everything in a photovoltaic system other than the photovoltaic modules, is about 60% of the total module cost.
(Solar modules are normally given a rating under “peak” sunlight, corresponding to 1 kW/m2 intensity)
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Home work
2. Estimate the area required to generate 50 MW peak power using the second generation thin film PV modules. Calculate the kWh cost for such an installation.
3. The city of Tallahassee is contemplating to support the construction of a conventional coal plant. Given the health and environmental costs of about $0.07/kWh, and the cost of today’s electricity being $0.14/kWh, determine whether the option of using 2nd generation PV modules make economic sense.