Sustainability in a Telecoupled World

Jianguo (Jack) LiuCenter for Systems Integration and Sustainability

Michigan State University

http://csis.msu.edu

Outline

• Background information

• Telecoupling framework

• Example applications of the framework

• Future research on sustainability in the context of telecoupling

Background Information

Traditional Sustainability Research

• Usually in a specific place (“place-based” research)

• Has not adequately considered interactions between distant places

In Reality

Numerous distant interactions

Flows of Virtual Water Related to Trade of Agricultural and Industrial Products (1996-2005)

Liu et al. 2015 Science

Global Shipping Network

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/417128/the-global-shipping-network-is-finally-revealed

Dynamics of International Tourism

Steffen et al. 2015 The Anthropocene Review

Animal Migration

Bird migration routes. 1-Northern Wheatear, 2-Bluethroat, 3-Eastern Yellow Wagtail, 4-Dunlin, 5-Wandering Tattler, 6-Bartailed Godwit, 7-Arctic Tern, 8-Sandhill Crane, 9-Brant, 10-Smith's Longspur, 11-American Golden Plover, 12-Tundra Swan, 13-Semipalmated Sandpiper.

http://www.scienceminusdetails.com/2011/02/why-animals-migrate.htm

Seed Dispersal by Flying (2009)

http://www.fsd2010.org/miscellaneous/frugivores_of_the_month/HB.htm

Need for Integrated Framework of Research on Distant Interactions

• Most studies on distant interactions consider only some components, e.g., take environmental perspective OR socioeconomic perspective (rather than environmental AND socioeconomic perspectives)

• Most studies focus on the sending and/or receiving places but ignore other places

• Most studies do not consider feedbacks among distant places

Telecoupling Framework

Telecoupling: Socioeconomic AND Environmental Interactions

over distances

Liu et al 2013 Ecology and Society

Major Componentsof the Telecoupling Framework

Sending System

Agents

Causes

Effects

Spillover System

Agents

Effects

Causes

Receiving System

Agents

Causes

Effects

Telecoupling as an Umbrella Exapnded Concept of Distant Interactions (examples)

• Migration (e.g., animals, people)• Tourism• Trade of goods and products• Seed dispersal • Species invasion• Disease spread• Atmospheric circulation• Waste (pollutant) transfer• Water transfer• Knowledge transfer• Technology transfer• Foreign direct investment • Payment for ecosystem services

Example Applications of the Telecoupling Framework

Example #1

Multiple Telecouplings between a Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas and

the Rest of the World

Wolong Nature Reserve

• “Flagship” reserve• Established in 1975• One of the largest (200,000 ha)• 10% of wild pandas (~150)

• Local residents (> 4,500)

Examples of Telecouplingbetween Wolong and the World

Wolong Nature Reserve

Pandas

The World

Panda Loans

Flows: Number of Pandas Living outside Wolong

less than 2022

85

0

20

40

60

80

100

by 1998 by 2004 by 2010

Num

ber o

f Pan

das

Year

Sending, Receiving, and Spillover Systems related to Panda Loans in 2010

Edinburgh, UK

Wolong (Chengdu),

China

Traditional View of Panda Loans (Pandas from Wolong to Edinburgh: Sending and Receiving Systems only)

Memphis, Tennessee,

USA

Anchorage, USA

Wolong (Chengdu)

China

Edinburgh, UK

Telecoupling Perspective on Panda Loans (Spillover systems; Spillover CO2 emissions > those between sending and receiving systems)

AgentsPeople and organizations that make panda loans possible

• China Society for Wildlife Conservation and the State Forestry Administration thatdevelop policies and agreements

• Wolong Nature Reserve Administration Bureau that implements the policies (e.g., selects which pandas for loans)

• People and organizations that lobby, negotiate and find resources for panda loans

CausesReasons behind the panda loans

• Cultural: Cultural affinity and fascination with the panda worldwide

• Technological: Improvements in captive management tripled the captive panda population from 1970 to 2000

No.

of P

anda

s

http://nationalzoo.si.edu/

Causes (continued)

• Economic -Receiving systems (zoos) increase their visitation rates, which translates into financial gains

• Political: Political will for panda loans by top leaders

Taipei Times

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/

Effects of Panda Loans: Socioeconomic Effects

• Costs of keeping pandas in zoos– Construction of new

facilities alone can cost over $10 million

– High operating costs• Visitors pay for entrance

fees, souvenirs and travel costs

• Improve social networks for scientific collaboration

http://www.giantpandazoo.com/

Tripadvisor.com/au

Effects of Panda Loans:Environmental Effects

Awareness of panda conservation in sending, receiving, and spillover systems.

CO2 emissions of transporting pandas and bamboo

http://www.jenniferpickens.com/blog/panda-diplomacy/; Euractive.com

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

pair of pandas pandas and bamboo

CO

2 em

issi

ons (

tonn

es)

Feedback Effects

• Revenues from loans ($ 1 million/pair) have been used for conservation in the sending system and spillover systems in other parts of panda habitat.

• Receiving systems have also undertaken capacity building endeavors in Wolong, sending experts to both train and learn from Wolong's scientists.

Nationalzoo.si.edu

Other Examples of Telecouplingbetween Wolong and the World

Wolong Nature Reserve Tourists

The World

Tourism

Wolong Nature Reserve

Agricultural Products

The World

Trade of Agricultural Products

Wolong Nature Reserve

Industrial Products

The World

Trade of Industrial Products

Photo: http://melamine-fertilizer.en.made-in-china.com/product/uXUJScyrAkVK/China-China-s-Largest-Nitro-Compound-NPK-Fertilizer-Manufacturer.html

Wolong Nature Reserve

Information about Wolong

The World

Information Dissemination

Wolong Nature Reserve

Conservation Subsidies

The World

Conservation Subsidies

Photo: Chinatoday.com

Combined Impacts of Multiple Telecouplings on Panda Habitat Sustainability

Degradation and Recovery of Panda Habitat in Wolong

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Hig

hly

Sui

tabl

e H

abita

t (ha

)

Liu et al. 2001 Science, Vina et al. 2007 Ecological Applications

Example #2

Application of the Telecoupling Framework to Global Food Security, Land Use, and

Environmental Sustainability

Issues related to Global Food Security, Land Use, and the Environment

Global food needs were met by local producers in the past, but are now increasingly met through global trade.

Increasingly, land use is shaped by powerful new forces such as food demand and import from distant places.

However, impacts of food trade on land use and the environment in distant places among and beyond trade partners are poorly understood.

Telecoupling ConsortiumInternational Consortium on Food Security, Land

Use, and Environment in a Telecoupled World

Brazil

China

UK

USA

InternationalOrganizations

Telecouplings through Trade of Food (e.g., Rice, Wheat, Corn, Potato, Soybean and Livestock) at Multiple Scales

Interrelationships among Five Tasks, Model Structure, Inputs and Outputs

Soybeans Exported from Brazil to China

Examples of the Main Components of the Telecoupling Framework via Soybean Trade between Brazil and China

Heilongjiang Province of China

Soybean Hometown

Crop Cover Data (Resolution: 250 m; General accuracy: >90%)

a. 2005 b. 2010

Type 2005 (km^2) 2010 (km^2)Soybean 43722 35384Rice 19655 23656Corn 32105 46674

Change in Crop Cover (2005 vs 2010)

Average Amount of Fertilizers and Pesticides Used in 2013 (from household survey)

Soybean Rice Corn

Fertilizer (kg/ha)

12.7 19.9 690.9

Pesticide(yuan/ha)

4.7 15.0 143.9

Future Research on Sustainability in the Context of Telecouplings

Effects of Telecoupling on Sustainability of Different Systems

Sending System

+ - + + - - - +Receiving System

+ - + - + + - -Spillover System

+ - - - + - + +Global + - ? ? ? ? ? ?

More Topics of Telecoupling Researh

• Understand socioeconomic and environmental trade-offs and synergies among different systems

• Facilitate studies on the interrelationships among multiple types of telecouplings.

• Help develop more effective policies by explicitly considering socioeconomic and environmental impacts on and feedbacks among multiple systems.

Barriers for Telecoupling Research

• More complex

• Need for more resources (e.g., time, money, expertise)

• Need for more coordination among different systems

Opportunities

International Interests

• Global Land Project

• Belmont Forum

• NASA-MSU Program

Media Coverage

http://science.time.com/2011/02/23/the-new-science-of-telecoupling-shows-just-how-connected-the-world-is%E2%80%94for-better-and-for-worse/

Summary

While place-based sustainability research is important, more attention is needed to study telecouplings

The telecoupling framework can help understand different components and interrelationships of telecouplings among distant places

Quantification of the framework can provide useful information for sustainability across local to global scales.

Acknowledgments• Funding Agencies

• Bill Clark• Numerous collaboratorsMateus Batistella, Ruth DeFries, Thomas Dietz, Tara Garnett, Peter Gleick, Charles Godfray, Thomas Hertel, Harold Mooney, Vanessa Hull, César Izaurralde, Eric Lambin, Jane Lubchenco, Luiz Antonio Martinelli, William McConnell, James Millington, Emilio Moran, Rosamond Naylor, HariniNagendra, Zhiyun Ouyang, Karen Polenske, Jiaguo Qi, Anette Reenberg, Gilberto de Miranda Rocha, Karen Seto, Cynthia Simmons, Huajun Tang, Billie Turner, Peter Verburg, Andres Vina, Peter Vitousek, Christine Vogt, Jeremy Woods, Wu Yang, Steve Yearley, Fusuo Zhang

• Liu et al. 2015 Science

• Liu et al. 2015 & 2013 Ecology and Society

• Liu and Yang 2013 PNAS

• Liu et al. (in press) Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

• Liu et al. (in press) Pandas and People: Coupling Human and Natural Systems for Sustainability (Oxford University Press)

• http://telecoupling.org