The Energy Policy Transition in Denmark

Helsinki, May,29 - 2013

Susanne Krawack Chief Consultant

Member based think tank on climate mitigation and adaptation policies

Politically independent

”CONCITO will provide analyses, based on research and practice … which can be translated into direct

action in politics, business and the responsibilities of every citizen.”

The Constitution of CONCITO

CONCITO

Total Danish Energy consumption

CO2 emissions (end use)

Energy consumption on sectors

The Danish decoupling

ACO 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Forbrugsudledning (globalt)

Officiel udledning (nationalt)

Ton CO2e per dansker

CO2 emission related to consumption

The CO2 footprint of a dane

4907

789

877

3076

1668

1519

19 tons CO2e/dansker/år

Ting og sager

Service og kommunikation

Fly

Mad og drikke

Scope 1

Scope 2

13+6 t

Scope 1: direkte energiforbrug, benzin, gasfyr, mv.

Scope 2: el og fjernvarme

•Energy consumption is reduced

•Share of renewable energy is increasing

•Transition is mainly in the energy sector

•Transport and agriculture are lacking behind

•Some export of CO2 takes place

Status

The overall strategy Our Future Energy

Efficiency, Electrification, Renewabels, R&D

Transition to Renewables

Electricity production

Exit of oil and coal

Exit of oil and coal

1. Energy efficiency: (810 PJ in 2010 to 520 PJ in 2050)

• A heavy obligation on energy companies

• Building renovation

2. Renewable Energy:

• Wind

• Biomass (wood pellets)

• Biogas (slurry and organic waste)

3. Electrification:

• Industry, heating, transport

• The Nordic electricity market

• ”Smart Grid”, electric cars

:

Three types of initiatives

1. ”Our energy” provides 34 % reduction in 2020

– target is 40 %

• Agriculture and transport - a plan in late 2013

2. Financing the transition

• PSO and ”supply security tax”

• The price of electricity and heating goes up

• SMEs and low-income families pay the most

• North Sea oil revenues?

Challenges

Biomass:

• Defined as CO2-neutral in the EU ETS

and the Kyoyo Protocol

• Wood pellets a challenge if demand is heavily increased

• Time factor

• Biomass production >< land use change

• Should apply emission factors to biomass

• How much CO2 neutral biomass exist?

Challenges

•National investment: 750 mill. Euro

investments and lost revenues from fossil fuel taxes

•Roughly 1,700 DKK/family/year in 2020

•Increased energy cost for companies

Cost

Financing

At what cost?

The Danish wind energy

Electric cars

Loading the

Batteries when the

wind blows will

balance supply

and demand

A smart grid strategy has just been launched

The Danish situation

Eksport of energy technology

Will the green transitions create growth?

Export of energy technologies

•Denmark has reduced energy consumption and CO2 emissions

•There are ambitious plans for a CO2 neutral Denmark in 2050

•The measures are :

• Increase efficiency

• More wind and bio mass

•Financed by the consumers

•The green transition can create new markets

•Bio mass is most probably a wrong way

•Transport and agriculture is still behind

•The current economic crises reduces Governments ambitions

Summing up

www.concito.dk

sk@ concito.dk