SURVEYING FORCIBLY DISPLACED PERSONS

Kristen Himelein KastelicSenior Economist / Statistician

29-30 November 2018Vienna, Austria

BACKGROUND

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o 85 percent of forcibly displaced persons are being hosted in developing countries, more than half of which have been displaced for longer than four years.

o The World Bank has increasingly come to recognize the issue as a medium term social and economic development challenge, and has allocated USD 2 billion in new support for refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and their host communities.

UNHCR (2018)

THREE CASE STUDIES

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Refugees and IDPs in Chad

Syrian refugees in Turkey

Newly arrived asylum seekers in Italy and Greece

SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS - DESIGN

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o All of the general sample design principles still apply when working with forcibly displaced persons.

o Sample size calculations should be based on previous / comparable data (if available) and account for design effects.

o Variable selection for calculations should take into account the multiple objectives of the survey.

o One area which is different for displaced persons surveys, particularly those conducted in camps, is that the variation is usually much less than is found in the wider population.

o Finite population corrections may also matter comparatively more to the sample size.

SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS

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o Additional training required.o Collecting data from refugee and IDP populations is in many

ways similar to collecting data on emotional subjects or from groups that have experienced trauma generally – care should be taken at every aspect of the project design to be sensitive to the respondent. This includes a well-designed and thoroughly tested questionnaire, and additional training for interviewers on how to answer questions and deal with emotional responses.

o Respondents may also have the incentive to lie if they believe doing so may result in additional benefits.

o Local interviewers do not speak language of displaced persons.

REFUGEES & IDPS IN CHADSURVEYING DISPLACED PERSONS & HOST COMMUNITIES

REFUGEES & IDPS IN CHAD

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o According to UNHCR 2016 Statistical Yearbook, there were 391,251 refugees, 124,342 IDPs, and 1,909 asylum seekers in Chad. This represents 3.5% of the total population.

Sudanese (75%)o Located in camps

in the Easto Many are long

term refugees from Darfur crisisCAR (23%)

o Located in the south & in N’Djamena

o Population in flux

Nigerians (2%)o Refugees from

Boko Haram

IDPsMainly from border areas

with CAR & NigeriaUNHCR (2018)

SAMPLING CHALLENGE

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o Camp areas are straightforward to sample using UNHCR data as the basis for the sampling frame & selecting camps proportional to size.

o Refugees & IDPs living with local populations were more complicated but UNHCR data was available to identify locations.

o Main interest to government though is the impact of refugees on host communities, particularly in the East.

o National survey headed to the field soon that could include a booster to oversample host communities but how to build the frame?

o National survey used census enumeration areas (EAs) as primary sampling units, but camps were in sparsely populated areas. Settlements in an EA adjoining a refugee camp may be 20+ km away.

SAMPLING CHALLENGE

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Areas adjoining the camp are clearly host communities…

SAMPLING CHALLENGE

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… but what about places a few kilometers away?

SOLUTION

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o Sampling of camps• Two strata were created:

• Camps in the South (refugees from CAR)• Camps in the East (refugees from Sudan)

• Sampling frame: UNHCR registry data• Camps were selected with probability proportional to size.

o Sampling of host-villages in the East• Two strata were created:

• Villages within 5 km of camps • Villages between 5 km and 15 km from camps

• Sampling frame: Administrative data from national statistics agency (list of villages with population).

• Host-villages were selected with probability proportional to size.

SYRIAN REFUGEES IN

TURKEYCLUSTERED BUT HARD-TO-FIND POPULATIONS

SYRIAN REFUGEES IN

TURKEYCLUSTERED BUT HARD-TO-FIND POPULATIONS

REFUGEES & ASYLUM SEEKERS

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o According to UNHCR, there were 3.8 million refugees & asylum seekers in Turkey in 2017, an increase of 22% on 2016.

o Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTPs) were found throughout the country with higher concentrations in Istanbul and the southeast.

Living in camps (5%)

Transient (small percentage)

Living in dwellings (approximately 93%)

SAMPLING CHALLENGE

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o How to efficiently identify SuTPs living in dwellingso The majority of the SuTPs are living in dwellings disbursed throughout

Turkey, though there are more concentrated in certain areas.o Approximately 15% of SuTPs are in Istanbul, and an additional 37%

are in Şirnak, Hatay, and Gaziantep. In the top 15 provinces in terms of SuTP population contain 90% of the total.

SuTP population as of 15 October 2018Source: DGMM (Ministry of Interior)

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SOLUTION - STRATIFICATION

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SOLUTION - CLUSTERING

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o Clustering is based on census enumeration areas (EA) and selected proportional to the estimated size of the SuTP population.

o Can be estimated by assuming the fraction of SuTP population in the province is constant across EAs (ie if 10% of the population in Kilis is comprised of SuTPs, then it is assumed that 10% of each EA in Kilis are SuTPs).

o In cases where the percentage of SuTPs can be estimated at lower administrative levels or where key informant data can be incorporated, the estimated sizes are more accurate and the sampling design more efficient.

SOLUTION - ADAPTIVE SAMPLING

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o Adaptive sampling is an alternative to interviewing a fixed number of households per cluster, and uses information from data collection to decide how many households to interview in a cluster. Households within an EA are divided into blocks. After the first block is interviewed, if a sufficient portion of households are SuTPs, then additional groups in the same cluster are interviewed.

o Benefits: Reduces costs as areas with dense SuTP populations get more interviews. Weighting calculations remain straightforward.

o Drawbacks: Marginal value of each additional SuTP interview is reduced because of clustering. The size of the loss depends on correlation of variable of interest.

NEWLY ARRIVED ASYLUM SEEKERS IN ITALY & GREECE

HIGHLY MOBILE POPULATIONS

NEWLY ARRIVED ASYLUM SEEKERS

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o Increasing numbers of asylum seekers have been arriving in Europe, the majority of which come by sea.

UNHCR (2018)

Nationalities arriving to Italy Nationalities arriving to Greece

COVERAGE

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o Nationalities• Italy: Nigeria, the Gambia, Senegal, Eritrea, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire,

Guinea, Somalia and Sudan (72% of 2016 arrivals)• Greece: Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq (91% of 2016 arrivals)

o Center locations• Italy: Lazio, Lombardy, Sicily, and Puglia• Greece: Attica, Central Greece, and Thessaly

o The survey does not include:• Those who stayed in 3rd countries outside the E.U. or remained in

country of origin; • People who arrived outside of survey period (December 2016 –

May 2017);• People who did not stay in reception centers; • Unaccompanied minors.

SAMPLE DESIGN

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o Two-stage stratified cluster design• First stage: Selection proportional to size of the reception centers,

stratified by geography, center type, and center size.• Second stage: Quota sampling with quasi-random selection

(assuming random distribution across centers and time).o Sampling Frame: Lists provided by center staff, following

authorization by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (Italy) and Ministry of Migration Policy (Greece).

o Implementation challengeso Nationality was misclassified for some individuals, leading to

interviews being conducted with people from outside of the targeted countries.

o High refusal rates among some nationalities.

WEIGHTING

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o Analytic weights calculated using population totals from EUROSTAT data from the European Commission on First Time Applicants from 2012 to 2017

o Nationalities outside of the targeted countries received a weight of zero, but were included in the (unweighted) regression analysis. • Impacted 69 of 4124

observations

Admin Survey WeightItalyCote d'Ivoire 6.5% 8.5% 0.76Eritrea 26.5% 17.2% 1.54Guinea 6.5% 7.2% 0.90The Gambia 9.2% 12.9% 0.71Mali 8.1% 10.8% 0.75Nigeria 21.9% 27.1% 0.81Senegal 7.0% 12.0% 0.58Somalia 8.1% 3.1% 2.61Sudan 6.6% 1.0% 6.60

GreeceAfghanistan 35.7% 31.4% 1.14Iraq 14.1% 10.4% 1.35Syria 50.2% 58.2% 0.86

FINDINGS & FURTHER DETAILS

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World Bank Group. 2018. Asylum Seekers in the European Union : Building Evidence to Inform Policy Making. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30157 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

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Kristen HimeleinSenior Economist / Statisticiankhimelein@worldbank.orgPhone : (+1) 202 458 8149Skype : khimelein

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