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SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES

MANAGEMENT IN THE

DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991

MONTENEGRO- INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION FRAMEWORK REPORT VOLUME 2 – ANNEXES

May 2017


SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES

MANAGEMENT IN THE

DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991

MONTENEGRO – INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION FRAMEWORK REPORT VOLUME 2 – ANNEXES

May 2017

PROJECT NO. A038803

DOCUMENT NO. 1

VERSION B

DATE OF ISSUE May 2017

PREPARED all authors and institutions as in inception report

CHECKED Nadja Zeleznik, REC

APPROVED Roar Selmer Solland, COWI


SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

IN THE DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991

This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund under the Western Balkans Investment Framework. The views expressed herein are those of authors and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the Contributors to the European Western Balkans Joint Fund or the EBRD and the EIB, as co‐managers of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund.

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin i

Table of Contents

Page No

Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... x

1 Annex 1 – Supporting Introduction Chapter 1 1-1

2 Annex 2 Supporting Setting core water management development targets – key objectives Chapter 2 1-2

3 Annex 3 – Supporting Inventory of Changes for DRB development Chapter 3 3-3

3.1 Annex 3-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 3-3 Financing and its influence on priorities 3-3

3.2 Annex 3-2: Overall impact assessment matrix 3-8

4 Annex 4 – Supporting Water management development options Chapter 4 4-16

4.1 Annex 4-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 4-4 Monitoring 4-16

5 Annex 5 – Supporting Modelling the impacts of development options on Water balance Chapter 5-20

5.1 Annex 5-1 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-2 Influence of climate change on hydrology 5-20

5.2 Annex 5-2 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-3 Water resources system modelling 5-43

5.3 Annex 5-3 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-4 Flood risk assessment 5-1

6 Annex 6 – Supporting Multi-criteria analysis of development scenarios Chapter 6 6-5

6.1 Annex 6-1 Economic costs and benefits per scenarios 6-5

6.2 Annex 6-2 Sensitivity analysis 6-6

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin ii

List of Figures

Page No Figure 3-1 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................ 3-6 Figure 3-2 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................ 3-7 Figure 5-1: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in

accordance with the CM1 climate parameter seta – Part 1 ................................................................... 5-20 Figure 5-2: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in

accordance with the CM1 climate parameters set – Part 2 ................................................................... 5-21 Figure 5-3: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in

accordance with the climate CM2 parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-22 Figure 5-4: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in

accordance with the CM2 climate parameter set – Part 2 ..................................................................... 5-23 Figure 5-5: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in





accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-28 Figure 5-10: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations

in accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 2 ................................................................. 5-29 Figure 5-11: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations






according to the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 2 ........................................................................... 5-35 Figure 5-17: Relative changes (Δ) of mean annual discharges (ANN) during the periods of near (from 2011 to

2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................................................. 5-36

Figure 5-18: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of winter season (DJF) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-37

Figure 5-19: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of spring season (MAM) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................................... 5-38

Figure 5-20: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of summer season (JJA) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-39

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin iii

Figure 5-21: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of autumn season (SON) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-40

Figure 5-22: Relative changes (Δ) of higher mean annual proticaja with exceedance probability of 10% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................................... 5-41

Figure 5-23: Relative changes (Δ) of lower mean annual discharges with exceedance probability of 90% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................. 5-42

Figure 5-24 Planned HPPs :in red the values proposed for an harmonized EF over the DRB (- no data) ........ 5-1 Figure 5-25. Flood frequency distribution of floods at Radalj for the baseline period compared to the

distribution obtained from the complete record. .................................................................................... 5-1 Figure 5-26. Flood frequency distributions for baseline period and two future periods under two climate

scenarios (left graphs: RCP 4.5, right graphs: RCP 8.5). ........................................................................... 5-2 Figure 6-1 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ............................................ 6-5 Figure 6-2 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ............................................ 6-6

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin iv

List of Tables

Page No

Table 3-1: HPP Investment Costs (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................................ 3-5 Table 3-2: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase ............................................... 3-8 Table 3-3: Social - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase ........................................................ 3-10 Table 3-4: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Operation phase ................................................. 3-12 Table 3-5: Social - Without mitigation measures –Operation phase .............................................................. 3-14 Table 4-1: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin ...................................................... 4-16 Table 4-2: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin .................................................... 4-17 Table 4-3: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin ..................................................... 4-19 Table 4-4: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin ............................................. 4-19 Table 5-1 Existing HPPs ................................................................................................................................... 5-43 Table 5-2. 100-year flood flows of Drina at Radalj hydrologic station – comparison of estimates based on the

observed and simulated hydrology. ......................................................................................................... 5-3 Table 6-1 Scenario 2 .......................................................................................................................................... 6-6 Table 6-2 Scenario 3 .......................................................................................................................................... 6-7

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin v

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AAC Average annual concentration AASWA Agency of the Adriatic Sea Water Area BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina oC Degrees Celsius CLIDATA Climate Data Software System CW Civil Works DIV Diversion (Hydropower Type) DNA Designated National Authority DRB Drina River Basin EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEA European Environmental Agency EEC European Economic Community EF Environmental Flow EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EP Elektroprivreda EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPCG Elektroprivreda Crna Gore (Montenegro) EPR Environmental Performance Review EPS Elektroprivreda Serbia ERS Elektroprivreda Republike Srpske EU European Union EUR Euro FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FASRB Framework Agreement on Sava River Basin FBiH Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina FCDA Federal Civil Defence Authority FGO Federal Geological Office FHMO Federal Hydro meteorological Office FHMS Federal Hydro meteorological Service FIA Federal Inspection Authority FMAWMF Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Water Management and Forestry FMEMI Federal Ministry of Energy Mining and Industry FMET Federal Ministry of Environment and Tourism FMIA Federal Ministry of Internal Affairs FMTC Federal Ministry of Transport and Communications FOFDP Federal Operational Flood Defence Plan FRY Federal Republic of Yugoslavia FSO Federal Statistical Office GCOS Global Climate Observing System GDP Gross Domestic Product GEP Guaranteed Environmental Flow method GHG Green House Gas GIS Geographical Information System GWh Gigawatt hours HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Centre – Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-RAS Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System HIS Hydrological Information System HMSS Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin vi


HMZ Hydro meteorological Institute HPP Hydropower Plant HS Hydrological Station IAWD International Association of Waterworks in the Danube Catchment Area IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River IMO International Meteorological Organization INC Initial National Communication INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change IPF Investment Prioritisation Framework ISRBC International Sava River Basin Commission IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management JCI Jaroslav Černi Institute JV Joint Venture KM Convertible Marks LEP Law on Environmental Protection LW Law on Waters LWM Law on Waste Management LWP Law on Water Protection MAEP Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection - Serbia MAFWM Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management (RS BiH) MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development - Montenegro MAWRMF Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources Management and Forestry – RS BiH MCH Meteorological, Climatological and Hydrological database MCT Ministry of Communications and Transport MET Ministry of Environment and Tourism MH Ministry of Health MIA Ministry of Internal Affairs MIEM Ministry of Industry Energy and Mining (RS) MME Ministry of Mining and Energy MNE Montenegro MOFTER Ministry of Free Trade and Economic Relations (BiH) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MS Meteorological Station NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NGO Non-Government Organisation NRW Non-Revenue Water O&M Operation and Maintenance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OG Official Gazette PE Public Enterprise PSHPP Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant (reversible HPP) PUC Public Utility Company Q Discharge RBMP River Basin Management Plan RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathways REC Regional Environmental Centre

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin vii


RES Renewable Energy Sources RS Republic Srpska SAA Stabilisation and Association Agreement SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SEI Stockholm Environment Institute SHPP Small (mini) Hydropower Plant SNC Second National Communication SO2 Sulphur Dioxide SOx Sulphur Oxides SRB Sava River Basin SRO Science Research Organisation TNC Third National Communication TPP Thermal Power Plant TOR Terms of Reference UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNESCO-IHE UNESCO – Institute for Water Education UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change USA United States of America USD United States Dollar WAAC Water Area Advisory Council WAC Water Area Council WATCAP Water and Climate Adaptation Plan WB World Bank WBIF Western Balkans Investment Framework WD Water Directorate WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System by SEI WFD Water Framework Directive WISKI Water Information Systems KISTERS WMO World Meteorological Organisation WMR Water Management Region WQI Water Quality Index WRMP Water Resources Master Plan WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plan

World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 1-1

1 Annex 1 – Supporting Introduction Chapter 1


2 Annex 2 Supporting Setting core water management development targets – key objectives Chapter 2


3 Annex 3 – Supporting Inventory of Changes for DRB development Chapter 3

3.1 Annex 3-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 3-3 Financing and its influence on priorities

Explanation of financial and economic indicators

The following financial and economic indicators were considered for inclusion in the CBA:

▪ Financial Net Present Value (FPNV)

▪ Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)

▪ Economic Net Present Value (ENPV)

▪ Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR)

▪ Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

▪ Average incremental cost (AIC).

Net Present Value

The Net Present Value (NPV) of a project is defined as the value obtained from discounting, given a fixed discount rate and a net cash flow balance (project-related revenues minus project-related expenditures) for each year of the life of the project (or evaluation period). Project-related costs include investment costs, as well as annual operating costs. The NPV is calculated using the next equation:

1

(1 )

N

n nn

NPV NCFn

where:

NCFn (net cash flow) – the annual net cash balance for the given year of analysis (n=1, 2, 3, … N),i – discount rate in per cent.

The difference between the financial and economic net present value is the cash flow used in the equation. The former refers to the net cash flow from the perspective of the investor or the investment itself. For example, a hydropower plant generates revenues from the sale of power, as well as investment and operating costs. The examination of net cash flow is internal to the hydropower company. In economic net present value, on the other hand, the net cash flow refers both to the revenues and costs of the power company, but also the wider costs and benefits that society as a whole bears as a result of the investment.

For a private investor, the financial net present value should always be greater than zero in order for the project to be worth the investment. For society as a whole, the economic net present value should be greater than zero in order for the project to be worth the investment.

Internal Rate of Return

The Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate at which the Net Present Value is equal to zero, as shown in the following equation:

1

(1 )

N

n nn

IRR NCFIRR

,

where:

NCFn (net cash flow) – the annual net cash balance for the given year of analysis (n=1, 2, 3, … N), i - discount rate in per cent.


Analogous to net present value, there is a financial and economic internal rate of return. For a private investor, the financial internal rate of return should always be greater than the discount rate (often equal to the prevailing commercial interest rate). For society as a whole, the economic internal rate of return should be greater than the social discount rate (often lower than the prevailing commercial interest rate in order to emphasise the importance to the project for society as a whole).

Financial sustainability

Financial viability means that the financial net present value (FNPV) should be positive and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) should be positive and higher than the discount rate (usually equal to the prevailing rate of interest). Projects with a high FNPV and FIRR are deemed commercial and can be financed from commercial sources.

In cost-benefit analysis (CBA), the financial indicators are modified to include social benefits and costs that affect society as a whole. CBA is also an important evaluation tool since many projects that should be implemented are not financially viable. These include many public investments or other projects that are socially important. Such projects should be economically viable, which means that the economic net present value (ENPV) is positive and the economic rate of return (EIRR) is positive and exceeds the social discount rate. In addition, the discounted total sum of social benefits must exceed the discounted total sum of social costs; that is, the benefit-cost ratio must exceed 1. If these conditions are not met, the project as defined should not be implemented.

Financial sustainability for a public-sector type project - for example, involving the construction of a hydropower station with seasonal or year-round water flow regulation - means that the project will generate a positive net cash flow over its lifetime. Typically, this net cash flow is generated from user charges from the sale of electricity. If user charges are insufficient to cover operating costs, these costs must be covered from other sources, such as the national or entity budget. If a project is not sustainable - i.e., with a negative net cash flow that cannot be covered by any means - its benefits will not occur or cease after a certain period and the money invested will not be recovered.

Average Incremental Cost (AIC)

The average incremental cost (AIC) shows what investment cost is required to obtain a unit of project effect. For energy and electricity, the AIC is the levelised cost of energy (LCOE). This cost is expressed in currency per unit of effect. AIC is a type of dynamic unit cost analysis that requires that an investment be described both in terms of its implementation and operation. This allows for the differences in projects’ operating costs, useful life, and effects over time to be captured. Well-known in economics and finance, this dynamic view takes into account changes in the value of money over time and the costs and revenues obtained in various years are reduced to a “common denominator” using discounting methods. The AIC is calculated according to the following equation:

0

0

(1 )

(1 )

t nt t

tt

t nt

tt

IC OC

iAIC

EE

i

,

where:

ICt - investment cost in year t, OCt - operating cost in year t, i - discount rate in per cent, t - year of analysis, EE - environmental effect, which can include any effect or output of the investment (such as power produced, water storage provided, etc.).


In the case of multi-purpose water resource development projects, such indicators could be: EUR/KWh (or EUR/GWh) for power production, Mm3 for storage capacity, and m3/s for guaranteed flow. For the EUR/KWh indicator, the above formula provides the levelised cost of energy (LCOE).

The information the resulting unit cost provides is robust because it takes into account the operating and rehabilitation costs – as well as production of effect (electricity, storage capacity, etc.) over the useful lifetime of the project. Society will ultimately pay for the water resource development projects that meet development objectives. Therefore, if a group of projects is considered in which all produce a similar effect (e.g., amount of electricity generated or amount of water storage capacity), all other factors being equal, priority should be given to investments that have the lowest AIC indicator.

Benefit-Cost Ratio

The Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is simply the ratio of social benefits to social costs.

As mentioned above, the discounted total sum of social benefits must exceed the discounted total sum of social costs; that is, the benefit-cost ratio must exceed 1. If these conditions are not met, the project as defined should not be implemented. In general, the project or development option that generates the highest net benefits (provided the BCR is greater than 1) should be preferred.

HPP Investment and Operation Costs per scenarios

Table 3-1: HPP Investment Costs (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)

No

Name of HPP/SHP

P River

Country

Civil works

HME ME EE Investor Expence

s

Working

Capital TOTAL

1 Komarnica

Piva/Komarnica

MNE 249,120,

106 8,200,0

00 15,000,

000 12,300,

000 34,154,

413 3,187,7

45 321,962,

264

2 Otilovici Cehotina MNE 704,608 455,000 1,001,0

00 910,400 452,196 35,232

3,558,436

3 Krusevo Piva RS/FBiH

80,055,032

13,200,000

24,000,000

20,000,000

26,815,650

1,640,707

165,711,389

4 Lukin Vir Lim MNE 25,115,4

60 2,600,0

00 4,700,0

00 3,900,0

00 7,263,0

92 435,78

6 44,014,3

38

5 Andrijevica

Lim MNE 40,511,4

00 5,100,0

00 9,350,0

00 7,650,0

00 18,783,

420 813,94

8 82,208,7

68

TOTAL Scenario 2 491,232,

089

TOTAL Scenario 3 617,455,

195


Financial Analysis - MNE Scenario 2 Unit Overall 1 2 3 4 5

Total HPPs

Total Investment Costs Constant EUR 491,232,089 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 0

Investment costs Constant EUR 491,232,089 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 0

Total Operation Costs Constant EUR 353,851,595 0 0 0 0 13,609,677

Fixed operation costs Constant EUR 333,030,094 0 0 0 0 12,808,850

Maintenance costs Constant EUR 57,208,047 0 0 0 0 2,200,310

Insurance costs Constant EUR 18,463,779 0 0 0 0 710,145

Personnel gross salaries Constant EUR 7,800,000 0 0 0 0 300,000

Tangible costs Constant EUR 1,950,000 0 0 0 0 75,000

Intangible costs Constant EUR 1,170,000 0 0 0 0 45,000

Depreciation Constant EUR 246,438,268 0 0 0 0 9,478,395

Variable operation costs Constant EUR 20,821,501 0 0 0 0 800,827

Water fee Constant EUR 1,299,038 0 0 0 0 49,963

Concession fee Constant EUR 14,641,847 0 0 0 0 563,148

Other fees Constant EUR 4,880,616 0 0 0 0 187,716

Installed capacity MW 0 0 0 0 291

Electricity generation per year GWh 0 0 0 0 500

Storage capacity Mm3 0 0 0 0 191

Investment costs per kW of installed power EUR/kW 1,686.634

Investment costs per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.983

Investment costs per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 2,571,896

Operation costs w/o depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 14.18

Operation costs w/o depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.008

Operation costs w/o depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 21,629.75

Operation costs including depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 46.73

Operation costs including depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.027

Operation costs including depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 71,254.85

Total costs over analyzed project period EUR 598,645,415 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 4,131,282

Total revenues EUR 455,046,516 0 0 0 0 17,501,789

Cash flow EUR -143,598,899 -125,465,518 -100,638,095 -146,041,755 -119,086,721 13,370,507

Levelized cost of power generation capacity 170.41 EUR/kW FNPV -286,634,590

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) / Dynamic prime cost (DPC) 0.0993 EUR/kWh FIRR 0.93%

Dynamic generation cost of water storage capacity 259,847.23 EUR/Mm3

Figure 3-1 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)


Financial Analysis - MNE Scenario 3 Unit Overall 1 2 3 4 5

Total HPPs

Total Investment Costs Constant EUR 617,455,195 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 0

Investment costs Constant EUR 617,455,195 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 0

Total Operation Costs Constant EUR 448,017,285 0 0 0 0 17,231,434

Fixed operation costs Constant EUR 419,736,167 0 0 0 0 16,143,699

Maintenance costs Constant EUR 72,703,892 0 0 0 0 2,796,304

Insurance costs Constant EUR 23,633,277 0 0 0 0 908,972

Personnel gross salaries Constant EUR 11,856,000 0 0 0 0 456,000

Tangible costs Constant EUR 2,964,000 0 0 0 0 114,000

Intangible costs Constant EUR 1,778,400 0 0 0 0 68,400

Depreciation Constant EUR 306,800,598 0 0 0 0 11,800,023

Variable operation costs Constant EUR 28,281,118 0 0 0 0 1,087,735

Water fee Constant EUR 1,764,438 0 0 0 0 67,863

Concession fee Constant EUR 19,887,510 0 0 0 0 764,904

Other fees Constant EUR 6,629,170 0 0 0 0 254,968

Installed capacity MW 0 0 0 0 356

Electricity generation per year GWh 0 0 0 0 679

Storage capacity Mm3 0 0 0 0 285

Investment costs per kW of installed power EUR/kW 1,736.620

Investment costs per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.910

Investment costs per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 2,166,509

Operation costs w/o depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 15.28

Operation costs w/o depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.008

Operation costs w/o depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 19,057.58

Operation costs including depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 48.46

Operation costs including depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.025

Operation costs including depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 60,461.17

Total costs over analyzed project period EUR 758,671,881 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 5,431,411

Total revenues EUR 618,073,809 0 0 0 0 23,772,070

Cash flow EUR -140,598,072 -160,104,791 -126,358,118 -183,671,927 -147,320,359 18,340,659

Levelized cost of power generation capacity 176.27 EUR/kW FNPV -347,042,878

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) / Dynamic prime cost (DPC) 0.0924 EUR/kWh FIRR 1.32%

Dynamic generation cost of water storage capacity 219,902.81 EUR/Mm3

Figure 3-2 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)


3.2 Annex 3-2: Overall impact assessment matrix

Table 3-2: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase

Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance

Geo

logy

an

d

soils

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant

HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant

HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant

Clim

ate

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant

HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant


HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Negligible Insignificant

HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant

Air

qu

alit

y


HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Small negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Small negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Small negative

Hyd

rolo

gy HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative

Hyd

rau

lic

(reg

im o

f

rive

r)

HPP, "Komarnica" High Minor negative Medium negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High Minor negative Medium negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" High Minor negative Medium negative

Qu

alit

y o

f

surf

ace

wat

er

HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative




HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative

Qu

alit

y o

f

gro

un

dw

ater

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant


HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant


Terr

estr

ial

Veg

etat

ion

and

re

late

d

hab

itat

s

HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Medium negative Medium negative



HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Minor negative Small negative

Mig

rati

on

corr

ido

rs HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Medium negative

Terr

estr

ial

Fau

na







Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance A

lluvi

al

eco

syst

em

s HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative





Aq

uat

ic

eco

syst

em

s HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative



HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Medium negative Medium negative


Co

nse

rvat

ion

Are

as

HPP, "Kormarnica" Low High negative High negative

HPP, "Krusevo" High Medium negative High negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant

HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant

Lan

dsc

ape

HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Minor negative Small negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligable Insignificant




Table 3-3: Social - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase


Po

pu

lati

on






Agr

icu

ltu

re HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant



HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant


Fore

stry

HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligible Insignificant



Fish

ing/

Hu

nti

ng HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative





Infr

astr

uct

ure






Ener

gy

sou

rce/

use






Hea

lth






Edu

cati

on






Eth

nic

ity/

cult

ure

HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant







Vis

ual

asp

ect

HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Minor negative Medium negative





Cu

ltu

re

her

itag

e/to

uri

sm

HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant






Table 3-4: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Operation phase

Operation Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance

Geo

logy

an

d

soils






Clim

ate






Air

qu

alit

y


HPP, "Krusevo" Low Negligible Insignificant


HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Negligible Insignificant

HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Negligible Insignificant

Hyd

rolo

gy

HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Medium positive Medium positive

HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium positive Medium positive

Hyd

rau

lic (

regi

m

of

rive

r)

HPP, "Komarnica" High Medium negative High negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High Medium negative High negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" High Medium negative High negative

Qu

alit

y o

f

surf

ace

wat

er HPP, "Komarnica" Low Moderate negative Small negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligible Insignificant



Qu

alit

y o

f

un

der

gro

un

d

wat

er




HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant


Terr

estr

ial

Veg

etat

ion

an

d

rela

ted

hab

itat

s HPP, "Komarnica" Low Medium negative Medium negative





Mig

rati

on

corr

ido

rs

HPP, "Kormarnica" High High negative Very high negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Medium High negative High negative



HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High High negative Very high negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" High High negative Very high negative

Terr

estr

ial F

aun

a HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium High negative High negative





Allu

vial

eco

syst

em

s

HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative




HPP, "Andrijevica" Minor negative Medium negative Medium negative

Aq

uat

ic

eco

syst

em

s

HPP, "Kormarnica" High High negative Very high negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Medium negative

HPP, "Otilovici" High Medium negative Medium negative

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High High negative Very high negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" High High negative Very high negative

Co

nse

rvat

ion

Are

as

HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium High negative High negative

HPP, "Krusevo" High negative Minor negative High negative




Lan

dsc

ape



HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligable Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Medium negative Medium negative



Table 3-5: Social - Without mitigation measures –Operation phase


Po

pu

lati

on

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Minor positive Insignificant

HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor positive Small positive

HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor positive Small positive

Agr

icu

ltu

re HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant

HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant




Fore

stry

HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Negligable Small negative

HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Negligable Small negative

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligable Insignificant

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Negligable Small negative

HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Negligable Small negative

Fish

ing/

Hu

nti

ng HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative


HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligable Negligable



Infr

astr

uct

ure

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Small positive Small positive

HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Small positive Small positive

HPP, "Otilovici" Low Small positive Small positive

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Small positive Small positive

HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Small positive Small positive

Ener

gy

sou

rce/

use

HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant


HPP, "Otilovici" Low Small positive Small positive

HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Small positive Small positive


Hea

lth






Edu

cati

on






Eth

nic

ity/

cult

ure

HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant







Vis

ual

asp

ect






Cu

ltu

re

her

itag

e/to

uri

sm

HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant






4 Annex 4 – Supporting Water management development options Chapter 4

4.1 Annex 4-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 4-4 Monitoring

Section 4.4 of the main part of the Report provides a list of proposals regarding the improvement of the existing hydrologic and meteorological stations, as well as the list of proposals regarding the establishment of new ones. In most cases was it was not possible to define stations' micro-locations more precisely, as it would require detailed analyses of terrain accessibility, GSM signal intensity etc.

For this reason, some alternative locations for a certain number of meteorological stations, in addition to the locations given in the main part of the Report, are provided in the following text. Locations were also assigned with priority marks.

New meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin

Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.

Table 4-1: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin

Station label Region Micro-location Elevation

(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates

Priority

L1a Komovi mountain

north-eastern part

EKO Hut Štavna 1,710 N 42.712388 E 19.682786

1

L1b Komovi mountain

north-eastern part

Božićki hut 1,730 N 42.715404 E 19.658185

1

L1c Komovi mountain

north-eastern part

Vulića hut 1,740 N 42.706534 E 19.678623

1

L3b Prokletije Mountain

Prokletije Mountain, to the north-east of

Grebaje 1,530

N 42.535749 E 19.767254

1

L3c Prokletije Mountain

Alternatively: to the west of Volušnica

Mountain, Popadija Mountain and

Talijanka Mountain slopes

1,600 to 1,900 1

L3d Prokletije Mountain

Alternatively: Prokletije Mountain south-eastern slopes

1,600 to 2,100 1

L4a Prokletije Mountain

Zaston, former SFRY and Montenegro

border post 1,350

N 42.489489 E 19.815823

1

L4b Prokletije Mountain

Alternatively: on part of Prokletije

Mountain western and south-western

slopes - Maja, Jezerce

1,600 to 2,200

1

L4c Prokletije Alternatively, more to the north:

1,630 N 42.530654 E 19.813214

1




Priority

Vezirova brada hut

L4d Prokletije Alternatively: Savino oko, Oko Skakavice

1,035 N 42.511922 E 19.834820

1

L4e Prokletije Alternatively: Ponor, Grlje waterfall

990 N 42.522955 E 19.841975

2

L5a Prokletije Greben hut -Lipovica Mountain, above Grnčar, neat the

southern slope top

1,800 N 42.593576 E 19.809310

1

L5b Prokletije Čardak hut -Lipovica, above Zagrađe Village, south-eastern slope

1,800 N 42.592628 E 19.844326

1

L5c Prokletije Alternatively: Gusinje 1,035

N 42.511922 E 19.834820

2

L5d Prokletije Alternatively: Vusanje

950 N 42.529854 E 19.838812

2

Locations in the north-eastern part of Komovi mountain are placed on the Vasojevićki Kom Mountain northern slope. They belong to the Lim River Basin, but in their immediate vicinity is also the Tara River and Lim River basins' watershed, as well as tourist facilities.

New meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin

Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.

Table 4-2: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin



Priority

T1 Komovi Mountain

southern part

St. Ilija church on Carine (on Tara

River and Lim River basins' watershed)

1,770 N 42.645340 E 19.643440

1

T2a

Komovi Mountain south-western part:

Veruša, Mokra, Maglić

Above Veruša 1,615 N 42.652846 E

19.545727 1

T2b



Alternatively: Maglić hut

1,790 N 42.637545 E

19.565353 1

T2c



Alternatively: Mokra

1,500 N 42.604654 E

19.571917 2

T2d



Alternatively: Veruša

1,200 N 42.648847 E

19.517984 2

T3a Komovi Mountain south-western and

southern slopes Lazovića hut 1,670

N 42.671260 E 19.605272

2

T3b Komovi Mountain Alternatively: 1,680 N 42.671900 2




Priority

south-western and southern slopes

Klopočki hut E 19.602208

T3c Komovi Mountain south-western and

southern slopes

Alternatively: Pelevski hut

1,680 N 42.672864 E 19.600173

2

T3d Komovi Mountain south-western and

southern slopes

Alternatively: Velja Ćura hut

1,670 N 42.657036 E 19.616953

2

T4a Komovi Mountain

western part Alternatively: Margarita hut

1,720 N 42.693333 E 19.609022

2

T4b Komovi Mountain

western part Alternatively: Slana

Rupa hut 1,800

N 42.697671 E 19.614068

2

T4c Komovi Mountain

western part Alternatively: Velja

Rupa hut 1,730

N 42.704054 E 19.608696

2

T5a

Part of Komovi Mountain south-

western and southern slopes

Bijele Vode hut, close to Tara River

source 1,670

N 42.639644 E 19.633749

2

T5b



Alternatively: Savovića hut, on

Tara River and Lim River basins' watershed

1,720 N 42.636359 E 19.622055

2

T5c



Alternatively: Vujadinovića hut, on Tara River and Lim River basins'

watershed

1,715 N 42.632536 E 19.622829

2

T6a Komovi Mountain

(Kučki Kom) northern slopes

Martinovića hut 1,700 N 42.700179 E 19.655384

2

T6b Komovi Mountain


Novovića hut 1,700 N 42.701731 E 19.656451

2

T6c Komovi Mountain


Labovića hut 1,770 N 42.705720 E 19.654840

2

T6d Komovi Mountain


Valjevski Laz hut 1,700 N 42.705795 E 19.649258

2

T7 Međukomlje

Alternatively: plateau between

Kučki Kom Montain and

Vasojevićki Kom Mountain -

northern slope. In vicinity is Lim River

and Tara River basins' watershed

2,000 3


Huts at the south-western slopes of Komovi Mountain are favorable locations, because they are very close to each other and there are several structures. They are accessible by road.

Priority is at least one "high-elevation" station at the mountain massive of Maglić Mountain, Veruša Mountain, Mokra Mountain and/or Komovi Mountain, to be established at elevation above 1,500 m a.s.l.

Note: For estimation of snow cover thickness should be used data from ski centers in Kolašin and Bjelasica (up to 1,950 m a.s.l.) and Žabljak-Savin Kuk (up to 2,200 m a.s.l.).

New meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin

Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.

Table 4-3: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin



Priority

P1a Gornja Bijela 1 At mountain slopes

above Bijela 1,640

N 42.882607° E 19.176536°

1

P1b Gornja Bijela 2 At mountain slopes

above Bijele 1,715

N 42.865951°

E 19.176716° 1

P2a Bioč 1 Bioč Mountain southern slope

1,166 N 43.173285°

E 18.772391° 1

P2b Bioč 2 Bioč Mountain southern slope

1,111 N 43.173674°

E 18.796159° 1

P3a Gornja Bijela Close to the

hydrologic station 1,050

N 42.903691°

E 19.151857° 2

P3b Timar

Close to the hydrologic station or close to the St. Georgije church

1,160

N 42.976639°

E 19.189768° 2

New meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin

Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.

Table 4-4: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin

Station label Region Micro-location Elevation (m a.s.l.)

Geographical coordinates

Priority

C1a Stožer 1,370 N 43.121247° E 19.518472°

1

C1b Stožer-Ponikvice Ponikvice 1,310 N 43.147718° E 19.526791°

1

C1c Stožer-Bliskovo Bliskovo 1,200 N 43.153569° E 19.539270°

1


5 Annex 5 – Supporting Modelling the impacts of development options on Water balance Chapter

5.1 Annex 5-1 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-2 Influence of climate change on hydrology

Figure 5-1: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM1 climate parameter seta – Part 1


Figure 5-2: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM1 climate parameters set – Part 2


Figure 5-3: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the climate CM2 parameter set – Part 1


Figure 5-4: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM2 climate parameter set – Part 2


0

100

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DJF MAM JJA SON ANN

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Prijepolje



Figure 5-16: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations according to the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 2


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CM8 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070

Figure 5-17: Relative changes (Δ) of mean annual discharges (ANN) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


-5

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Figure 5-18: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of winter season (DJF) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


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Figure 5-19: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of spring season (MAM) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


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Figure 5-20: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of summer season (JJA) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


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Figure 5-21: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of autumn season (SON) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


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Figure 5-23: Relative changes (Δ) of lower mean annual discharges with exceedance probability of 90% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).


5.2 Annex 5-2 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-3 Water resources system modelling

Table 5-1 Existing HPPs

Environmental Flow (m3/s)

Concession

Country Planned HPP River

RS-BiH HPP "Visegrad" Drina 50

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Bajina Basta" Drina 50

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Zvornik" Drina 60

MNE HPP, "Piva" Piva 25

MNE HPP, "Otilovici" Cehotina 0.8

S HPP, "Uvac "("Sjenica") Uvac 0

S HPP, "Kokin Brod" Uvac 0

S HPP, "Radoinja-Bistrica" Uvac 14

S HPP, "Potpec" Lim 13.9


Technical document RS-BiH reg. Serbia reg.

Country Planned HPP River All the year May to October (a) November to April (b) All the year Jan. Fev March April May June Jully Aug. Sept. Oct Nov. Dec.

RS-BiH HPP "Buk Bijela" ("low") Drina 24.4 24.4 16.5 24.5 16.5

RS-BiH HPP, "Foca" ("niska") Drina 27 27 18 27 18

RS-BiH HPP, "Paunci" Drina 30.2 30.2 20 30.5 20

FBIH HPP, "Ustikolina" Drina 38a - 58b 33 38 58 20

FBIH HPP, "Gorazde" Drina - 45 21.5 32 21.5

RS-BIH / S HPP, "Rogacica" Drina 60.5 60.5 33.5 50 33.5

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Tegare" Drina 61.6 61.6 33.5 50 33.5

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Dubravica" Drina 63.8 63.8 34 51 34

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Kozluk" Drina - 57.5 37 55 37

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina I" Drina - 57.5 37 55 37

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina II" Drina - 60 37.5 56 37.5

RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina III" Drina - 60 37.5 56.5 37.5

RS-BiH HPP, "Sutjeska" Sutjeska 2.07 2.07

MNE HPP, "Otilovici" Cehotina 0.8 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27

RS-BIH/MNE HPP "Vikoc (Luke)" Cehotina 2.11 2.5 - - - - - - - - - - - -

RS-BIH HPP, "Falovici" Cehotina 2.58 2.58 - - - - - - - - - - - -

MNE HPP, "Kormarnica" Piva - 1.82 1.82 1.82 5.8 6.04 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 4.82 1.82

MNE HPP, "Krusevo" Piva - 12.7 12.7 12.7 29.2 30.2 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7

MNE HPP, "Andrijevica" Lim 3.9 2.8 1.8 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 8.15 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57

MNE HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Lim 4.9 9.2 3.7 - - - - - - - - - - - -

S HPP, "Brodevaro I" Lim 10.4 10.1 6.9 10.4 10.4 10.4 25.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4

S HPP, "Brodevaro II" Lim 10.4 10.1 6.9 10.4 10.4 10.4 25.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4

S HPP, "Rekovici" Lim 13.9 18.2 9.2 - - - - - - - - - - - -

RS-BIH HPP, "Mrsovo" Lim 31.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Minimal environmental Flow (m3/s)

MNE reg.FBiH reg.

Figure 5-24 Planned HPPs :in red the values proposed for an harmonized EF over the DRB (- no data)


5.3 Annex 5-3 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-4 Flood risk assessment

Impact of climate change on flood flows of Lower Drina River

The impact of climate change on flood flows in the lower Drina Basin is estimated by considering change in flood flows at the Radalj hydrologic station, which is the only operational station in this part of the Drina River. The data on annual maximum flood flows of Drina at Radalj is available for the period 1950-2015, with few years missing from the record. The greatest flood flow of 5370 m3/s was recorded in 1968. Figure 5-25 shows the frequency distribution of the annual maximum floods at Radalj estimated from the full available record. The same figure also shows the frequency distribution of the annual maximum floods from the baseline period (1961-1990), which is estimated from 28 available annual maxima from this period (data from two years were missing). It must be noted that uncertainty stemming from frequency analysis of such a short record could be considerable. The baseline distribution has steeper upper tail than the full-record distribution; for example, the 100-year flood estimated from the full record is 5470 m3/s, while it is estimated at 6020 m3/s from the baseline period (which makes a difference of about 10%). Figure 1 also shows the 90% confidence interval for the general extreme value (GEV) distribution (shown as grey area in the figure). Flood frequency distribution from the baseline period is within the confidence interval so the difference between two distributions could be considered as the sampling error.

Figure 5-25. Flood frequency distribution of floods at Radalj for the baseline period compared to the distribution obtained from the complete record.


Figure 5-26. Flood frequency distributions for baseline period and two future periods under two climate scenarios (left graphs: RCP 4.5, right graphs: RCP 8.5).

In order to use the results of hydrologic simulations with climate scenarios (described in Chapter 5.2), it is necessary to verify the hydrologic model outputs against the observed floods for the baseline period. Two top graphs in Figure 5-26 provide the comparison of the frequency distributions of the observed and simulated floods for the baseline period according to hydrologic simulations with input from four climate models under climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (left graph) and RCP 8.5 (right graph). These graphs also show also the 90% confidence intervals for the distribution of the annual maximum floods from the complete record


1950-2015. Climate simulations under the two climate scenarios give the same results for the historical period 1961-1990, hence resulting in the same hydrologic simulations, and therefore the two graphs do not differ. The comparison for the baseline period shows that hydrologic simulations with input from all climate models except one (model 2) provide annual maximum floods within the given confidence interval. However, none of the models provide extreme floods as the greatest flood on the record, and the frequency distribution of the simulated annual maxima cannot yield the 100-yr flood close enough to the observed one (Table 5-2). Therefore, the frequency analysis of the simulated annual maxima from the 30-year baseline period cannot be considered reliable for quantifying the impact of climate change on the lower Drina flood flows.

Table 5-2. 100-year flood flows of Drina at Radalj hydrologic station – comparison of estimates based on the observed and simulated hydrology.

Annual maxima series Period Sample size 100-yr flood (m3/s)

Observed 1950-2015 62* 5470 Observed 1961-1990 28** 6020 Simulated with climate model 1 1961-1990 29*** 4508 Simulated with climate model 2 1961-1990 29*** 5113 Simulated with climate model 3 1961-1990 29*** 3919 Simulated with climate model 4 1961-1990 29*** 5195 *Missing data: 1962, 1963, 2004, 2005 **Missing data: 1962, 1963 ***Year 1961 (hydrologic model warm-up period) not included

However, Figure 5-26 can provide some indications on the future behaviour of the floods in the lower Drina. The middle and lower graphs in Figure 5-26 show the empirical distributions of floods at Radalj based on four climate models and according to two climate scenarios. The graphs also show the median distribution from the ensemble of climate models (blue lines). In climate change impact studies the ensemble median (or mean) results are considered more reliable than any of the individual result (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, based on the position of the ensemble median empirical flood distribution, it could be concluded that more frequent floods could occur in the near future (2011-2040), but their magnitude would not exceed the flood magnitudes already experienced during the historical period. Also, uncertainty inherent in the climate model ensemble is rather low as all models are producing very similar empirical distributions of annual maximum floods. The ensemble median distribution of floods for the distant future (2041-2070) under RCP 4.5 exhibits similar behaviour like in the near future, but the upper tail of the ensemble median distribution under RCP 8.5 exceeds the greatest observed flood. Also, the uncertainty from the individual models in the distant future is greater and some models produce flood values that significantly exceed the greatest observed flood. Fitting standard theoretical distributions to the 30-year series of simulated annual maxima would not provide reliable estimates of 100-year floods and therefore was not performed in order to estimate impact of climate change on the Drina flood flows. Based on the results shown in Figure 2, the following could be concluded:

• The medium floods could become more frequent in both near and distant future. This means that

the e.g. 10-year or 20-year floods would be expected more often, e.g. with frequencies of

approximately 5 or 10 years respectively.

• The extreme floods exceeding the observed greatest floods could occur in the distant future with

the same frequency as estimated from the historical record. The increase in the extreme floods

magnitude is estimated at approximately 5% based on the ensemble median flood distribution.

It should be noted that the results of a comprehensive study of the climate change impacts on floods that was undertaken within the WATCAP project (World Bank, 2015) had shown a small increase of flood


magnitudes for the lower Drina (7% for 2011-2040 and 14% for 2041-2070). As this study was specifically designed to assess the climate change impacts on floods, these results could be used with more confidence than the results stemming from hydrologic simulations within this project, which were designed to support the water management modelling and therefore were focused on maintaining water balance while not considering accuracy of flood flows.


6 Annex 6 – Supporting Multi-criteria analysis of development scenarios Chapter 6

6.1 Annex 6-1 Economic costs and benefits per scenarios

The following tables presents the details of economic costs and benefits.

Figure 6-1 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)

Economics Analysis - MNE Scenario 2 Unit Overall 1

Benefits due to water supply -

Total population # 146,000

Economic value of water eur/m3 0.4

Water used l/p/d 60

Benefits to irrigation -

Area km2 1697.85

Total potential sale value Eur/m2 1.13

Area with irrigation % 8%

Avoided investment in flood protection Eur/year 0

Avoided damages Eur/year 0

Power Supply Benefits Eur/year 0

Total Benefits Eur/year -

Total Investment 0.88 432,284,238 110,409,656

Total OM costs 180,654,963 0

Net Benefits 864,917,817 110,409,656-

ENPV 131,459,232

EIRR 16.17%

BCR 1.35


Figure 6-2 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)

6.2 Annex 6-2 Sensitivity analysis

The following tables constitutes the results of the sensitivity analysis of the Cost-benefit Analysis.

Table 6-1 Scenario 2

Discount rate FNPV ENPV B/C LCOE (EUR/kWh)

4% -206,617,748 358,501,636 1.78 0.0582

5% -238,222,160 293,913,774 1.67 0.0674

6% -260,464,700 241,561,601 1.57 0.0774

7% -275,988,720 198,376,742 1.49 0.0881

8% -286,634,590 162,193,501 1.41 0.0993

9% -293,699,554 131,459,232 1.35 0.1112

10% -298,109,315 105,042,869 1.29 0.1235

11% -300,532,501 82,106,996 1.23 0.1363

12% -301,457,801 62,021,448 1.18 0.1496

Price of electricity FNPV FIRR ENPV EIRR B/C

0.0350 -286,634,590 0.93% 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35

0.0400 -264,479,193 1.69% 150,636,039 16.87% 1.40

Economic Analysis - MNE Scenario 3 Unit Overall 1

Benefits due to water supply -

Total population # 146,000

Economic value of water eur/m3 0.4

Water used l/p/d 60

Benefits to irrigation -

Area km2 1697.85

Total potential sale value Eur/m2 1.13

Area with irrigation % 8%

Avoided investment in flood protection Eur/year 0

Avoided damages Eur/year 0

Power Supply Benefits Eur/year 0

Total Benefits Eur/year -

Total Investment 0.88 543,360,571 140,892,216

Total OM costs 235,581,228 0

Net Benefits 987,348,122 140,892,216-

ENPV 80,470,025

EIRR 12.21%

BCR 1.17


0.0500 -219,905,413 3.03% 189,217,283 18.17% 1.50

0.0600 -175,331,633 4.20% 227,798,527 19.36% 1.60

0.0700 -130,757,853 5.26% 266,379,770 20.46% 1.70

0.0800 -86,184,073 6.25% 304,961,014 21.49% 1.80

0.0900 -41,610,293 7.17% 343,542,258 22.46% 1.90

0.1000 2,963,487 8.06% 382,123,502 23.39% 2.01

0.1100 47,537,267 8.90% 420,704,746 24.27% 2.11

0.1200 92,111,047 9.72% 459,285,990 25.11% 2.21

0.1300 136,684,827 10.51% 497,867,234 25.92% 2.31

0.1400 181,258,607 11.28% 536,448,477 26.71% 2.41

0.1500 225,832,387 12.03% 575,029,721 27.46% 2.51

Investment change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C

0% -286,634,590 0.93% 0.0993 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35

-1% -282,575,414 0.98% 0.0984 134,952,357 16.43% 1.36

-5% -266,338,707 1.16% 0.0948 148,924,861 17.51% 1.41

-10% -246,042,823 1.40% 0.0902 166,390,490 18.97% 1.48

1% -290,693,767 0.89% 0.1002 127,966,106 15.91% 1.33

5% -306,930,474 0.73% 0.1039 113,993,603 14.94% 1.29

10% -327,226,357 0.53% 0.1084 96,527,973 13.80% 1.23

OM change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C

0% -286,634,590 0.93% 0.0993 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35

-1% -285,420,422 0.98% 0.0991 131,762,495 16.18% 1.35

-5% -280,563,751 1.15% 0.0980 132,975,548 16.23% 1.35

-10% -274,492,911 1.36% 0.0966 134,491,864 16.28% 1.36

1% -287,848,758 0.89% 0.0996 131,155,968 16.16% 1.35

5% -292,705,430 0.71% 0.1007 129,942,915 16.11% 1.34

10% -298,776,270 0.48% 0.1021 128,426,599 16.05% 1.34

Table 6-2 Scenario 3

Discount rate FNPV ENPV B/C LCOE (EUR/kWh)

4% -232,563,088 348,210,937 1.60 0.0542

5% -277,164,203 269,978,506 1.49 0.0628

6% -308,875,960 207,598,140 1.39 0.0720

7% -331,326,629 156,994,871 1.31 0.0819

8% -347,042,878 115,301,445 1.23 0.0924

9% -357,806,226 80,470,025 1.17 0.1033

10% -364,888,424 51,015,567 1.11 0.1147

11% -369,208,470 25,844,425 1.06 0.1266

12% -371,438,441 4,138,648 1.01 0.1389

Price of electricity FNPV FIRR ENPV EIRR B/C

0.0350 -347,042,878 1.32% 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17

0.0400 -316,949,975 2.10% 106,517,213 13.06% 1.22

0.0500 -256,406,964 3.47% 158,920,771 14.61% 1.33

0.0600 -195,863,954 4.68% 211,324,329 15.99% 1.44

0.0700 -135,320,944 5.78% 263,727,886 17.26% 1.55

0.0800 -74,777,933 6.81% 316,131,444 18.44% 1.66

0.0900 -14,234,923 7.78% 368,535,002 19.54% 1.77


0.1000 46,308,088 8.70% 420,938,559 20.58% 1.88

0.1100 106,851,098 9.59% 473,342,117 21.57% 1.99

0.1200 167,394,109 10.45% 525,745,675 22.51% 2.10

0.1300 227,937,119 11.28% 578,149,232 23.42% 2.21

0.1400 288,480,130 12.08% 630,552,790 24.29% 2.32

0.1500 349,023,140 12.87% 682,956,348 25.13% 2.43

Investment change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C

0% -347,042,878 1.32% 0.0924 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17

-1% -341,936,214 1.36% 0.0915 84,865,027 12.42% 1.18

-5% -321,509,555 1.55% 0.0881 102,445,038 13.31% 1.22

-10% -295,976,233 1.80% 0.0839 124,420,051 14.53% 1.29

1% -352,149,543 1.27% 0.0932 76,075,022 12.00% 1.16

5% -372,576,201 1.10% 0.0966 58,495,012 11.21% 1.12

10% -398,109,524 0.90% 0.1008 36,519,999 10.31% 1.07

OM change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C

0% -347,042,878 1.32% 0.0924 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17

-1% -345,505,600 1.36% 0.0921 80,865,492 12.22% 1.17

-5% -339,356,489 1.52% 0.0911 82,447,361 12.27% 1.17

-10% -331,670,099 1.73% 0.0898 84,424,698 12.34% 1.18

1% -348,580,156 1.28% 0.0926 80,074,558 12.19% 1.17

5% -354,729,268 1.11% 0.0936 78,492,688 12.14% 1.16

10% -362,415,657 0.89% 0.0949 76,515,352 12.07% 1.16

SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE DRINA … Country Report... · Support to Water...

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