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This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series.

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Arturo Munoz

Prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence ActivityApproved for public release; distribution unlimited

NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan Effectiveness of Psychological Operations 20012010

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The research described in this report was prepared for the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.

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Munoz, Arturo, 1949- U.S. military information operations in Afghanistan : effectiveness of psychological operations 2001-2010 / Arturo Munoz. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5151-6 (pbk. : alk. paper)1. Afghan War, 2001---Psychological aspects. 2. Afghan War, 2001---Propaganda. 3. United StatesArmed ForcesAfghanistan. 4. Psychological warfareHistory21st century. I. Title.

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iii

Preface

The U.S. Marine Corps (USMC), which has long recognized the impor-tance of influencing the civilian population in a counterinsurgency (COIN) environment, asked the RAND National Defense Research Institute to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. military (USMIL) infor-mation operations (IO) and psychological operations (PSYOP) in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2010 based on how well messages and themes are tailored to target audiences. This monograph responds to that request. It should be emphasized that this report does not cover the significant changes in IO and PSYOP definitions, doctrine, orga-nization, and implementation in the field that have taken place since 2010. When the text refers to the present, or the current situation, it generally means 2010.

This research was sponsored by the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA) and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre-tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

For more information on the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/intel.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).

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v

Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iiiFigures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixTables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiiAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiAbbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii

ChAPTer One

Introduction: Definition and Objectives of Psychological Operations in Afghanistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Overlap of Strategic Communication, Information Operations, and

Psychological Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5How This Monograph Is Organized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

ChAPTer TwO

Methodology for Assessing the effectiveness of U.S. Military Psychological Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

ChAPTer Three

Main Themes and Messages and Their effectiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31The War on Terror Justifies U.S. Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Propaganda Products Featuring 9/11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Propaganda Products Against Osama bin Laden and an Afghan

Safe Haven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Coalition Forces Bring Peace and Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

vi U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan

The Issue of Civilian Casualties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Handshake Leaflets and Posters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .