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Sudan:What next?

Governance,

conflict andgenocideBy Rob Kevlihan

Presented at GOAL StrategicPlanning Conference, Khartoum,

Sudan, Sept 2005

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Sudan: Country Profile

Largest country in Africa, bordering 9other states, straddling the Nile.

Arab (Muslim) dominance in the North,“African” (Christian/Animist) South.

North and South governed separately

under British colonial rule: policy reversednine years before independence in 1956.

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Conflict Overview

1955-1972 : Civil war in south. Ended withsouthern regional autonomy.

1983: 10 years peace shattered by introductionof Islamic Law and administrative division ofsouth.

1989: Weak government on verge of peace

toppled by Islamist coup d‟etat - war continues. 2003: New conflict in Darfur begins on large

scale. Tactics not new, but scale is.

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Underlying causes of conflict

War of visions? A conflict of identities.

War of resource control? Oil, natural

resources.

War of political elites? Domestic powerconsiderations paramount?

Centre versus Periphery

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Sudan

Salience ofgeography

- Size

- Infrastructure,the Nile andcommunication

- Desertification &

DroughtSource for map: HRWW, 1998: Sudan: Global Trade, Local Impact, NY:

HRW

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Southern Sudan: Unity orSecession?

GOS - 1997 Peace agreement withSouthern factions mandates a referendum

on southern independence in 2 years.Never occurred.

Machakos process: autonomy for sixyears followed by referendum. Status of

contested areas? Commitment of SPLA to unity?

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Consequences of SouthernSecession

Southern independence: More of thesame vs. Constructing new identities.

Northern rump Islamic state: More of thesame? Ethnic conflict – Darfur, Nubamountains, Beja Congress.

North / South relations? Role of regional actors: „Congo-ization?‟

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Darfur: New conflict dynamic

Conflict dynamics: local battle for land;national battle for control

A separate peace?

Centre vs. periphery dynamics

Attempt to control the centre?

Dynamics with / impact on southernSudan

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Other regions

Eastern Sudan: The role of Eritrea and theBeja insurgency

Nuba Mountains: Consolidation of aseparate peace?

Khartoum: Multi-ethnic city?

Northern Sudan: Nubia

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Hope for the future?

• Africa in

microcosm: Thecreation of a

multicultural,

multi-ethnic state.