Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate...
Transcript of Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate...
Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate (SNACC)
Final Report
Katie Williams, Rajat Gupta, Ian Smith, Jennifer Joynt, Diane Hopkins, Glen Bramley, Catherine Payne, Matthew Gregg,
Robin Hambleton, Nada Bates-Brkljac, Neil Dunse, Charles Musslewhite
This report should be referenced as:
Katie Williams, Rajat Gupta, Ian Smith, Jennifer Joynt, Diane
Hopkins, Glen Bramley, Catherine Payne, Matthew Gregg, Robin
Hambleton, Nada Bates-Brkljac, Neil Dunse, Charles Musslewhite
(2012) Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate
(SNACC) Final Report, University of the West of England, Oxford
Brookes University and Heriot-Watt University.
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Research team
Principal Investigators
• ProfessorKatieWilliams(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• ProfessorRajatGupta(OxfordBrookesUniversity)
• ProfessorGlenBramley(Heriot-WattUniversity)
Co-Investigators
• DrIanSmith(UniversityoftheWestofEngland)
• ProfessorRobinHambleton(Universityofthe
WestofEngland)
Researchers
• DrJenniferJoynt(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• DrDianeHopkins(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• DrCharlesMusslewhite(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• MsCatherinePayne(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• DrNadaBrkljac-Bates(UniversityoftheWestof
England)
• DrNeilDunse(Heriot-WattUniversity)
• MrMatthewGregg(OxfordBrookesUniversity)
• MsSmitaChandiwala(OxfordBrookesUniversity)
Stakeholder partners
• BristolCityCouncil
• OxfordCityCouncil
• StockportMetropolitanBoroughCouncil
• WhiteDesignAssociatesLtd.
Consultants
• ARUP
International visiting researchers from academia and practice
• ProfessorÖrjanSvane,KTHStockholm,Sweden
• ProfessorBrendanGleeson,Universityof
Melbourne,Australia
• TrevorGraham,CityofMalmö,Sweden
• JoaquimFlores,GondamerCityCouncil,Portugal
• ProfessorJanetHolston,ArizonaStateUniversity,
USA
Advisory group members
• DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocal
Government(DCLG)
• CommissionforArchitectureandtheBuilt
Environment(CABE)
• RoyalTownPlanningInstitute(RTPI)
• ConstructingExcellenceSouthWest(CESW)
• ForumfortheFuture(FFTF)
• ModernBuiltEnvironmentKnowledgeTransfer
Network(BRE-MBEKTN)
• ImprovementandDevelopmentAgencyforLocal
Government(IDeA)
• EnvironmentAgency(EA)
• HousingandCommunitiesAgency(HCA)
• WestofEnglandPartnership
• GreenwichUniversity(CREWProject)
• UKClimateImpactsProgramme(UKCIP)
• LocalGovernmentAssociation(LGA)
• Resilientcommunities
SNACCisoneofanumberofprojectsfundedby
theEngineeringandPhysicalSciencesResearch
Council(EPSRC,Reference:EP/G061289/1),and
co-ordinatedbytheAdaptationandResiliencetoa
ChangingClimateCoordinationNetwork(ARCCCN).
ARCCCNco-ordinatesanumberofprojectslooking
attheimpactsofclimatechangeandpossible
adaptationoptionsincludinginthebuiltenvironment
anditsinfrastructure.
TheoverallProgrammecontributestotheLiving
withEnvironmentalChange(LWEC)Infrastructure
Challengewhichaimstomakeinfrastructure,the
builtenvironmentandtransportsystemsresilient
toenvironmentalchange,lesscarbonintensiveand
moresociallyacceptable.Formoreinformationon
SNACC,ARCCandLWECpleasesee:
SNACC:www.snacc-research.org.uk
ARCC:[email protected]
LWEC:www.lwec.org.uk
Acknowledgements:TheSNACCteamwouldliketo
acknowledgetheinputofalltheparticipantsinthe
research.Residentsandstakeholdersinvolvedin
climatechangeissuesinthreecities(Oxford,Bristol
andStockport)contributedtotheprojectworkshops,
andgaveusvaluableinsightsintothechallengesof
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adaptinghomesandsuburbanneighbourhoods.
OurLocalAuthoritypartnersatOxfordCityCouncil,
BristolCityCouncilandStockportMetropolitan
BoroughCouncil,werekeymembersoftheresearch
team.Wewouldparticularlyliketoacknowledge
thetimeandcommitmentofLucyVilarkin,Darren
PegramandAngieJukes.Wewouldalsoliketo
thankallofourAdvisoryGroupmembers,andour
InternationalVisitingResearchersfortheirvaluable
contributionstotheresearch.
Afulllistofprojectpartnerscanbefoundat
www.snacc-research.org
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Why do suburbs need to be adapted to mitigate further climate change and withstand ongoing changes?
• In England, over 85% of the population lives
in areas classified as ‘suburban’.Suburbsare
mostcommonlythoughtofasareasthatare:
predominantlyresidential,towardstheedgeof
townsandcities,mainlyowner-occupied,and
often(butnotalways)characterisedbymedium-
lowdensitydevelopmentanddetachedor
semi-detachedhousing.However,suburbsdiffer
intermsoftheirphysicalcharacteristics,andthe
socio-economicandculturalcharacteristicsof
theirresidents.
• It is in suburbs that the majority of the population
will be affected by climate change.Themain
climatechangesthatpeoplewillexperienceare
hotteranddriersummers(withmoreheat-waves),
andmilder,wetterwinters.Therewillbemore
stormsandthepotentialformoreflooding.
• The impacts of these changes will be felt by
people, in terms of, for example, increased heat
stress and reduced comfort during hot spells,
restrictions on water use, reduced air quality, and
stress and costs associated with flooding and
storm damage.Theimpactswillalsobeevidentin
thephysicalenvironment,througheffectssuchas
deteriorationofpublicgreenspacesandgardens,
flooddamageandincreasedrisksofsubsidence
(insomeplaces).
• A number of physical changes could be made
to homes, gardens and the public realm in
suburbs to mitigate further climate change, and
withstand ongoing changes.Thesechanges
rangefromsmall-scaleadaptationstohomes
(suchasaddinginsulationorshutters)andgardens
(suchasgrowingfoodandinstallingwaterbutts),
tolarge-scalemodificationsattheneighbourhood
level(suchasgreeningschemesordeveloping
sustainableurbandrainagesystems).
• Yet, processes of change in the physical
environment within suburbs are complex.A
rangeofstakeholdersareresponsiblefordifferent
aspectsofthebuiltandnaturalenvironment,and
fordifferentclimaterisks.Stakeholdersinclude
localauthorities,utilities,regulatoryauthorities,
developers,builtandnaturalenvironment
professionals,individualsandcommunities.These
stakeholdershavevariousresources,powersand
knowledge,andtheiractionstakeplaceindifferent
localpolicyandgovernancecontexts.
What is the current situation in English suburbs with respect to adapting to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?
• At the home and garden scales some mitigation
and adaptation actions are taking place, but
for the majority of residents climate change
is a non-issue.Theadaptationsthatarebeing
implemented,suchasinstallinginsulationortriple
glazing,settingasidelandforgrowingvegetables,
orcollectingrainwateraregenerallybeingdone
tosavemoney,orbecausetheyarelinkedtoDIY
orgardeningashobbies.Mostresidents:donot
thinkaboutclimatechangeintermsofneeding
toadapttofutureweather;arescepticalofthe
extentofclimatechange;welcomeanincreasein
summertemperatures;anddonotseetheneed
toprioritisespendingmoneyonadaptations.
• At the neighbourhood scale, very little adaptive
action is taking place.Someadaptivemeasures
arelinkedwithregenerationprojectsorarea-wide
greeningstrategies,butverylittleisexplicitly
relatedtoadaptingtofutureconditions.
• There is no clear process, or delivery mechanism,
for adaptation and/or mitigation at the suburban
neighbourhood scale.Manyofthemosteffective
measuresarenotcurrentlybeingcarriedoutin
existingareasnorislarge-scaleretrofittinglikelyto
occur.
How can suburbs be best adapted to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?
• Thebestadaptationsarethosethatare:effective
(i.e.dothejobtheyaredesignedtodo,e.g.reduce
floodrisksorcoolahome),withoutadverse
impacts;feasible(i.e.possibletoimplementina
Key findings
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particularplace,giventheexistinglocalconditions)
andacceptabletothosewhohavetoimplement,
orlivewith,them(i.e.theadaptationissatisfactory
intermsofcostand/orvisualappearance).
• Thereisno‘best’‘onesizefitsall’adaptation
packagethatwillworkineverysuburb.Thebest
adaptationsdependonthetypeofsuburb(and
typeofhousingwithinit),theclimatethreats
inthatsuburb(e.g.somesuburbsareatriskof
flooding,othersaremorepronetooverheating),
andtheresponsecapacityinthatsuburb(e.g.the
economicandsocialconditions,andresources
available).
• Effectiveadaptationsmustcombine‘adaptive
retrofitting’with‘lowcarbonretrofitting’.There
isadangerthatsomelowcarbonadaptations
maymakesuburbslessabletocopewithfuture
weatherconditions,forexamplesomeformsof
insulation,insomehomes,mayexacerbatethe
riskofoverheating.
• AlthoughtheUKisprojectedtoremainaheating
dominatedclimate,whereinimprovingthethermal
propertiesofbuildingfabricwillbeessential,
otheradaptivemeasurestoreducetheriskof
futureoverheatingonahouselevelareurgently
needed.Afabric-basedfutureproofingapproach
comprisingmitigationandadaptationmeasuresis
requiredforlarge-scalerefurbishmentofexisting
housing.
• Atboththeneighbourhood,andindividualhome
andgardenscalesadaptation‘packages’are
moreeffectivethansinglemeasures.Adaptation
packageswerefoundtobeeffectiveinreducing
theriskofoverheatinginhomes,andarangeof
greening,landscapingandengineeringmeasures
wouldmakeneighbourhoodsmoreliveablein
futureclimateconditions.
• Someneighbourhoodadaptationoptionswould
beeffectiveinadaptingmostsuburbsforfuture
climatethreats.Forexample,‘greening’streets
andpublicspaces(addingstreettrees,allotments,
newgreenspaces),introducingsustainable
urbandrainagefeatures,andchangingtoenergy-
efficientstreetlightingwouldbeeffective(and
acceptable)inthemajorityofsuburbs.
• Someresidentialadaptationmeasuresare
suitableforallhousing,butothersareonly
feasibleforspecificdwellingtypes.Forexample,
mosthomeswouldbenefitfromroofinsulation,
windowshading,andwater-savingdevices.Yet
measuressuchascavitywallinsulationareclearly
notfeasibleforhomesbuiltwithsolidwalls.Some
measures,althoughtheycouldbeimplementedin
allhousingtypes,aremoreeffectiveandlikelyto
becarriedoutinparticularsuburbs.Forexample,
growingfoodandshadingoutdoorspacearemore
effectiveandlikelyinhomeswithlargergardens.
• Forresidents,the‘best’adaptationstendtobe
cheap,convenient,practical(giventhetypeof
hometheyhave),attractive,andhavesomeother
lifestylebenefit.Householdersarealsomorelikely
toimplementdual-purposeadaptationssuchas
thosethatmeetmitigationandadaptationcriteria
(e.g.insulation),orthosethatimprovecomfortand
arevisuallyattractive(e.g.greenery).
What are the best adaptations for mitigating further climate change?
• Homeenergysavingadaptations(roofandwall
insulation,double/tripleglazing,photovoltaicsand
solarpanels)werefoundtobeeffectiveinalmost
allsuburbs(notwithstandingsomeconcerns
aboutoverheating),andarewellunderstood
byresidentsandstakeholders.However,there
areuncertaintiesaroundtheiracceptabilityand
likelihoodofimplementation.
• Increasedgreeningofhomesandgardens
(includingfoodgrowing)iseffectiveandhas
multiplebenefitsinsuburbs.Residentsarepositive
aboutitandlikelytoincreasegreeneryintheirown
homesandgardens.Neighbourhoodgreening
iswelcomed,butthereareresourceissuesand
practicalproblemsinimplementingit.
What are the best adaptations for flooding?
• Effectiveadaptationstoreducetheriskand
impactoffloodsinsuburbsneedtoaddresspluvial
floodingfrominadequatestormwaterdrainage,
asmuchasfluvialfloodingfromwaterways.Thisis
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becausetheformermaycontributetoagreater
proportionoffloodingproblemsinthefuture
withincreasedrainintensityandstormactivity
expectedfromclimatechange.Ensuringporous
surfacesareretainedisimportant(forexample,
restrictingpavingoverfrontgardensandlaying
largepatios),asisthedevelopmentofsustainable
urbandrainagesystems(SUDS).However,
retrofittingSUDSinsuburbscanbebothdisruptive
andexpensive.
• Anumberofindividualhouse-scaleadaptations
canbeeffectiveinlimitingsomedamagefrom
floods(e.g.airbrickcovers,flood-proofdoors,
floodgates).However,theyareunlikelytobe
implementedbyresidents,eveniftheyhave
experiencedfloodingorliveinanareaatrisk.
Householdersareconcernedthatdrawing
attentiontothefactthattheirhomemightflood
willdecreaseitsmarketvalue.
• Effectiveadaptationsarethosewhichleavethe
neighbourhoodorhomemoreresilientaftera
floodingeventthanitwasbefore.Thiscanmean
thattheneighbourhoodisprotectedfromfurther
flooding,orthatflooddamageislimited.However
suchadaptationsareoftendifficulttoimplement
becauseinsurancecompaniesoftenonlyreplace
‘likewithlike’:theydonotpayformoreresilient
adaptations.
What are the best adaptations for summertime overheating?
• Anumberofadaptationoptionsareeffective
incombatingoverheatinginhomes,butthe
effectivenessoftheseoptionsdependsonthe
characteristicsofthehome.Themosttechnically
effectiveadaptiveapproachistoreducesolar
radiationinto,andonto,thehome.Thiscanbe
doneinanumberofwaysondifferentscales,
e.g.plantingoftreesinthestreetsandwider
neighbourhood,and/orinstallingexternalshading
onhomes.Naturalventilationofthehomeis
alsoextremelyeffective.Combiningadaptation
optionsintopackagesisthemosteffective
methodofreducingtheriskofoverheating.
• Overall,externalshading(e.g.fixedoutdoorwindow
shadesorexternalshutters)ismoreeffectivethan
internalshading(e.g.blinds).Externalshuttersare
themosteffectiveastheykeepsolarradiationoff
windowsurfacesbutthisrequireskeepingshutters
closedduringsummerdays(reducingnaturallight
inhomes).Plantinggreenwallcover,gardentreesor
streettreesisalsoaneffectiveshadingmeasurefor
homesalthoughcareneedstobetakeninselecting
appropriatespeciesoftreesandplants.
• Increasingthereflectivityoftheexteriorsurfaces
ofhomes,e.g.abrightwhiterenderforthe
exteriorwallscanalsoreduceoverheatingrisk,and
residentsarequitelikelytoimplementit,ifitdoes
notundulyaltertheimageoftheirneighbourhood.
• Additionofthermalmasstothehome,e.g.
replacingatimberfloorwithaconcretefloor
reducespotentialoverheatingdependentonthe
locationofmassandthecapacitytoreleaseheat
throughnighttimenaturalventilation.However,
thermalmassispoorlyunderstoodbyresidentsand
theyareunlikelytotakeaction.
• Externalinsulationiseffectiveineitherreducing
overheatingriskorminimisingtheincreasein
overheatingriskthatwouldhappenasaresultof
installinginsulationinhomes.Internalwallinsulation
canincreasetheriskofoverheating.However,
externalwallinsulationisnotpopularwithresidents
andtheyareunlikelytoimplementit.
• Reducinginternalgainsfromsourcessuchashot
waterheatingtanksandpipeworkinthehomeisa
veryeffectiveandcheapwaytoreducetheriskof
overheatingandincreaseenergysavings.
• Attheneighbourhoodscale,theintroduction
ofblueandgreeninfrastructureislikelytobring
coolingbenefitsandiswelcomedbyresidents.
However,thereisuncertaintyoverimplementation,
particularlyaboutcostandresponsibilityfor
installationandmanagement.
• ‘Communitycoolrooms’couldbeeffectiveinheat
waves,butfewresidentsorlocalstakeholders
perceiveaneedforthem,orwouldbelikelyto
implementthem.
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What are the best adaptations for storms and driving rain?
• Anumberofadaptationsareeffectivein
protectinghomes,gardensandneighbourhoods
fromstormdamage(e.g.weather-proofing
treatmentstoexternalwalls,tricklevents,retaining
poroussurfaces).However,residentsareunlikely
toimplementthesespecificallytoprotecttheir
homesfromstormdamage.Theyaremorelikely
toengageinroutinemaintenance(e.g.clearing
gutters,replacingloserooftiles,ensuringgarden
fenceswerewellconstructed)toaddressstorms.
Attheneighbourhoodscale,fewadaptationsare
evenconsideredinrespecttostormdamage.
What are the best adaptations for droughts and water scarcity?
• Effectiveadaptationstohomesandgardens
includerainwaterharvestingsystems,andsimple
measuressuchaswaterbutts.However,rainwater
harvestingispoorlyunderstoodandunlikelytobe
implementedinmostsuburbs.Waterbuttsare
popularandalreadycommonlyused.Residents
understandwaterscarcitybutthisdoesnotmake
themmorelikelytoplantdroughtresistantplants
orchangethetypeoffruitandvegetablesthey
grow.
• Attheneighbourhoodscale,plantingthatcan
withstandclimatechangesandrequireslesswater
isseenasaneffectivemeasureandislikelyto
becomemorecommonlyimplementedbylocal
authorities.
• SUDScanbeeffective,andaremorefeasiblein
lowerdensitysuburbswithmoreporoussurfaces,
buttheycanbebothexpensiveanddisruptiveto
retrofit.
What might motivate residents and other stakeholders to mitigate further climate change and adapt to ongoing changes?
• More experience of climate change (gradual
changes and extreme events).Currently,climate
changeisnotamotivatorforchangeinsuburbs.
Householdersfindithardtorelatetobecause
theyhavenotgenerallyexperiencedproblems.As
thepublicarenotoverlyconcerned,theissueis
nothighonthepoliticalagendaeither.However,
asEnglandexperiencesmoreheatwaves,floods
andextremeweatheritislikelythatrespondingto
theseriskswillbecomeahigherprioritypolitically
andpractically.
• Normalising of simultaneous mitigation and
adaptation practices, and their introduction into
organisations’ long-term planning and day-to-
day activities.Asexperiencesofclimatechange
become‘real’,andmitigationandadaptation
measuresareintroducedtheyarelikelytobecome
partofnormaldecisionmakingprocesses
forhouseholdersandotherstakeholders.As
adaptationsbecomemorevisible,theyarelikelyto
becomemoreacceptable.
• Integrating adaptation into existing public and
policy agendas.Adaptingtoongoingclimate
changeislikelytobemostsuccessfullyaddressed
bylinkingittootherissuessuchaslow-carbon
andhealthycommunityagendas.Incorporating
climatechangeadaptationtotherationalefor
implementingchangetothebuiltenvironmentfor
theseotheragendascouldgenerateincreased
impetustothepoliticalwillforadoptingsome
ofthesemeasures.Itwouldalsobeessentialto
ensureactionforotheragendasdoesnotconflict
withtheneedtoadapttotheanticipatedclimatic
changes.
• A better understanding of the multiple pathways,
involving a range of stakeholders, that could
deliver effective suburban adaptation.Thereis
nosingle‘process’ofeffectiveadaptation.Itis
likelythatacombinationofindividual,community,
government-led,andpartnershipactionswillbe
required.Thepotentialforcommunityaction
needstobemaximised.Buildingonexisting
communitycapacity(notnecessarilyaround
climatechangeissues)couldbeaneffective
wayofintegratingadaptationactivityinto
neighbourhoods.
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• Prioritising resources for adaptation. Currently
both householders and local and national
government are not prioritising resources for
climate change mitigation or adaptation to
effectively adapt suburbs.Thisispartlybecause
manyofthechangesneededarecostlyandhave
medium-longtermbenefits.
• Clearer responsibilities for adaptation. At the
suburban scale one of the key problems in
effective mitigation lies in understanding who
is responsible for change.Thereisconfusion
overthescaleatwhichriskshouldbemanaged
andownershippatternsinsuburbs,andthereare
misunderstandingsaboutthenatureofriskand
insurance.Withoutsignificantclarificationvarious
agencieswilldonothinginmanysuburbs,and
leaveneighbourhoodsvulnerable.
• Communicating climate change and its risks
effectively for different audiences.Different
actorsinvolvedin,oraffectedby,suburban
adaptationengagewithitindifferentways.
Hence,framingchangestohomesandlocal
neighbourhoodspurelyintermsof‘climate
change’and‘risk’isnotalwayseffectivein
motivatingaction.Stakeholderswiththe
responsibilityforinformingthepublicabout
climatechangeriskswillneedtofindeffective
waysofcommunicating.‘Climatechange’
messagescancreateresistancetoaction,so
householdersmayneedtobeengagedthrough
messagesaboutthepracticalandimmediate
benefitsofinstallingadaptationmeasures,and
thecost-effectivenessand‘qualityoflife/comfort’
benefits.
• Ensuring practical information about adaptations
is communicated at the right time and by
trusted people/organisations.Itisimportantthat
householdersgettherightadviceorinformation
whentheymaybeabouttomakechangesto
theirpropertiese.g.whentheyfirstmoveinto
anewhome,whentheyaredoingotherhome
improvements,orwhentheyareapplyingfor
planningpermissionorbuildingregulation
approval.Itisalsoimportantthatfrontlinecontact
points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,planningand
buildingregulationstaffandutilitiescanhelpwith
accurateinformation.
• Ensuring adaptation is embedded in planning
policies and practices and building regulations.
Planning policies and building regulations
need to ensure that future climatic conditions
are considered when changes to the physical
environment of suburbs are proposed.Neither
havemuchpowertopro-activelybringabout
change:buttheycouldbemorepowerfulin
stoppingfutureproblemsfromemerging.A
keyexampleisthatnewerhomes(i.e.those
builttomeetimprovedfabricregulations)
aremoresensitivetopotentialoverheating
thanolderhomes.AsthecurrentUKbuilding
regulationsandretrofittingprogrammesare
mainlyconcernedwithheatretention(andCO2
reduction),itisessentialthatfuturerevisionsto
buildingregulationsandotherpolicymeasures
tackletherisksof,andpotentialforadaptingto,
climatechangedrivenoverheatingtoensurea
comfortableenvironmentforoccupants.
• Learning from places where neighbourhood
action (and/or adaptive action) is successful.
Althoughcasesoffullyadaptedneighbourhoods
arerare,thereareexamplesofgoodpracticein
termsofneighbourhoodlevelactionthatcould
beappliedtothesuburbancontext.Thereare
alsoexamplesofbuiltenvironmentsolutionsfrom
countrieswithclimatessimilartothatprojectedfor
Englandthatcouldinformlocalstrategieshere.
• Ensuring that central government-controlled
mechanisms such as grants and subsidies are
appropriate to deliver effective adaptation.
Governmentinitiativesandfundingarewelcomed,
butpoorlyunderstoodbymosthouseholders.Itis
importantthatinitiativesareappropriatelyframed,
perhapslinkingtopeoples’interestinhome
improvementandmoneysaving,morethanto
climatechangeandrisk.Theinitiativesalsoneed
tobeclearlyexplainedandsimplyadministered.
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Researchteamandacknowledgements 2
Keyfindings 4
Contents 9
Chapter1: 11SuburbsandclimatechangeinEngland:thechallenges
Chapter2: 15TheSNACCresearchproject:approachandmethods
Chapter3: 21AtypologyofEnglishsuburbs
Chapter4: 25PotentialclimaterisksandadaptationoptionsforEnglishsuburbs
Chapter5: 29Thepolicycontextforsuburbanchange
Chapter6: 35TheSNACCcasestudies:selection,climatechangeprojectionsandsuburbprofiles
Chapter7: 53Thepotentialforoverheatinginsuburbsandeffectiveadaptationpackages
Chapter8: 65Residents’responsestoadaptingtheirsuburbs
Chapter9: 75Stakeholders’responsestoadaptationinsuburbs
Chapter10: 81Synthesisoffindingsandconclusions–effective,feasibleandacceptablesuburbanadaptationsandpathwaystoachievingthem
Appendices
AppendixA 91Determiningtheimpactonpropertyvaluesofarangeofadaptationoptions:developingahedonicpricingmodel
AppendixB 93DevelopingDECoRuM-Adapt©(aDomesticEnergy,CarboncountingandcarbonReductionModel)toanalysetheimpactofclimatechangeonenergyuseandcomfort
AppendixC 95Developingacomputervisualisationofadaptedsuburbs
AppendixD 97PotentialadaptationandmitigationoptionstobetestedinSNACC
AppendixE 107Synergiesandconflictsbetweenadaptationandmitigationmeasures
References 111
Contents
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Suburbs and climate change in England - the challenges
Chapter 1
1.1 Introduction
ThisreportpresentsfindingsfromtheSuburban
NeighbourhoodAdaptationforaChangingClimate
(SNACC)researchproject.Theprojectaimedto
answerthequestions:
• Howcanexistingsuburbanneighbourhoods
inEnglandbe‘best’adaptedtoreducefurther
impactsofclimatechangeandwithstandongoing
changes?and;
• Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutclimate-
changemotivatedadaptationinsuburbanareas?
Specifically:whatmightmotivateresidentsand
otherstakeholderstoadapttopresentandfuture
climatethreats?
Hence,wesoughttofindoutwhichadaptationsto
thephysicalenvironmentofhomes,gardensand
suburbanpublicspacesworkbestandhowcanthey
bedelivered.Intestingwhichadaptationswere‘best’
wedeterminediftheywere:
• Effective,bywhichwemeanttheadaptationdid
thejobitwasdesignedtodo(e.g.reduceflood
risksorcoolahome),withoutadverseimpacts.
• Feasible,bywhichwemeanttheadaptationwas
possibletoimplementinaparticularplace,given
theexistinglocalconditions.
• Acceptable,bywhichwemeanttheadaptation
wasonethatstakeholderswerelikelyto
implementorwouldwelcomeineithertheir
neighbourhoodortheirhomeandgarden.This
meantthat,forexample,theadaptationwas
‘acceptable’intermsofcost,visualappearance,
andabsenceofnegativeside-effects.
Thisreportgivesabriefoverviewoftheproject’s
approachandmethodsandsummarisesitsfindings.
First,itsetsthecontextforsuburbanadaptationin
Englandandexplainshowtheprojectconceptualised
theadaptationchallenge.
1.2 The context for suburban adaptation in England
Itiswidelyacceptedthatourexistingbuilt
environmentsarebothcontributingto,and
adaptingpoorlyfor,climatechange.Ourbuilding
stockisill-equippedforeithergradualchangesin
averageclimaticconditionsorextremeevents,
suchasheatwaves.Suburbanareasareoftenseen
asmajorcontributorstoclimatechange,andas
placesthatarepoorlyadaptedatpresent.They
tendtobecharacterisedbylow-mediumdensity
housingthatisenergy-andland-rich,andbuiltin
layoutsthatencouragecaruseanddiscourage
walkingandcycling(HoC,2008).Intermsofthe
urbansustainabilitydebate,theyarevilifiedas
individualised,single-use,wastefulplaces,wherea
combinationoflifestylesandurbanformcompound
problems.
Yet,suburbsareheretostay.Thebuiltenvironment
changesatarateofabout1%ayear,sothemajority
ofsuburbanbuildingswillstillbeherein50-100
years,withplotstructures,roadslayouts,andmajor
infrastructurebeingmoreenduring.Peoplearealso
likelytowanttocarryonlivinginsuburbs,withalmost
allattitudinalresearchshowingthatsuburbsarestill
thepreferredresidentiallocationofthemajorityof
households(Williams,2007).
InEngland,over85%ofthepopulationlivein
areasclassifiedas‘suburbs’DETR(2000).Suburbs
arecommonlyunderstoodasurbanareasthat
are:predominantlyresidential,towardsthe
edgeoftownsandcities,relativelylowdensity,
andoftencharacterisedbydetachedorsemi-
detachedhousing(URBEDandSEERA,2004).
Theyserveadjacenturbancentresandother
nearbysettlements,andarepredominantly
owner-occupied.However,otherthanthesebasic
characteristicssuburbsvarygreatly.Theyhavebeen
developedovertimeandhavedifferentarchitectural
stylesandlayouts(Williamsetal.2010;URBED,
2002;2006).Themixoflandusesinsuburbsalso
varies:somearealmostwhollyresidentialwhilemany
arerelativelymixed,withamenitiesandeconomic
uses,suchasshopsandsmallbusinesses.The
socio-economicstatusofsuburbscanalsobevery
different.Somesuburbsaccommodatewealthy
households,othershousepopulationsfromlower
socio-economicgroups,andothersstillarehometo
middle-incomefamilies(Gwilliametal1998;Peacock
etal,2007;BondandInsalaco,2007;andMcManus
andEthington,2007).
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Itisinthesevariedsuburbansettingsthatthe
majorityofthepopulationwillbeaffectedby
climatechange.Peoplespendmostoftheirtimein
theirhomes,andwillthereforebeaffectedintheir
domesticlivesinthesuburbs.Themainclimate
changesthatresidentswillexperienceare:hotter
anddriersummers,withmoreheat-wavesand
wintersthataremilder,andwetter.Thereisalsothe
potentialformorestormsandformoreflooding
(UKCP09;DEFRA,2012).
Theimpactsofthesechangeswillbefeltby
suburbanites,intermsof,forexample,increased
heatstressandreducedcomfortduringhotspells,
increasesinrespiratoryproblems,restrictionson
wateruse,andpersonalstressandcostsassociated
withfloodingandstormdamage.Theeffectswill
alsobeevidentinthephysicalenvironment,through
impactssuchasdeteriorationofpublicgreenspaces
andgardens,flooddamage,increasesindampand
mould,andincreasedrisksofsubsidence(oncertain
typesofsoil)(DEFRA,2012b;GuptaandGregg,
2011;Williamsetal.2012).Theremayalsobesome
impactsthatareseenaspositive,forexample,more
warmdaystospendoutside,prolongedgrowing
seasonsforsomeplants,andwarmerwintersthat
reduceheatingrequirements.Giventhiscontext,
itislikelythatsomeaspectsofthesuburban
environmentneedtobeadaptedinordertoensure
theyareliveableinthefuture.Unlesschangesare
made,thehumanexperienceoflivinginsuburbs,and
thefabricofthebuiltandnaturalenvironments,will
allsuffer.
1.3 The climate change adaptation challenge
Ifprogressistobemadeonsuburbanadaptation,
somekeycontextualfactorshavetobeconsidered.
Onlybyunderstandingtheexistingnatureof
suburbsandsuburbanchangeisitpossibleto
developeffectivestrategiesforadaptation.
Hence,thestartingpointforthestudywasthe
acknowledgementofsomeofthekeyfactors
affectingsuburbanadaptation:
• The nature of existing suburbs: Whilstitis
possibletomakesomegeneralisationsabout
suburbs,therearesignificantdifferencesbetween
themthatimpactontheirexposuretoclimate
risks,theirvulnerabilityandthecapacityof
residentsorotherstakeholderstoadapt.These
variablesinclude:
a.Theerainwhichtheywerebuiltandtheir
morphology,e.g.historicinnersuburb;planned
suburb;socialhousingsuburb(URBED,2006);
b.theexistingquality,formandownershippatterns
oftheirphysicalenvironment;
c.themixoflanduseswithinthem(e.g.spreadof
domestic,non-domestic,greenspaceandbuilt
land);
d.theirlocationwithindifferentclimaticregionsand
watercatchmentareas(differentclimaticfutures
arelikelyindifferentregions);
e.thesocio-economicandculturalcharacteristicsof
thepeoplewholiveinthem,and;
f. theinstitutional/governancearrangementsby
whichtheyaremanaged.
• The nature of change in suburbs: Although
residentialbuiltenvironmentschangerelatively
slowly,incrementaladaptationstakeplace
continuallyinsuburbs.Inaddition,Englishsuburbs
areunderpressuretoaccommodatealarge
numberofnewhomesinthenext30years.Hence,
thereissomepotentialforsignificant,positive
adaptationandre-designthroughnewbuilding
andretrofitting.
• The number and diversity of people and
organisations that make changes in
suburbs: Suburbsareco-producedover
timebyhomeowners,publicbodiesand
privatecompanies,throughdualprocessesof
autonomousadaptation(i.e.undertakenbyprivate
householders,orcompanies,fortheirindividual
benefits)and‘planned’adaptation(undertaken
bypublicbodies,usuallyLocalAuthorities,forthe
publicgood).Inaddition,suburbsmayalso,on
occasion,bepartiallyadaptedthrough‘communal’
actionsbyresidents.Hence,thereareanumber
ofimportantstakeholdersthatcanbringabout
changeinsuburbanareas.
• The nature of potential adaptations:Thereare
numerouschangesthatcouldbemadetothe
physicalenvironmentofsuburbstoenablethem
tomitigateagainstandadapttoclimatechange.
13
Theseadaptationscanbeappliedtohomes,
gardensandpublicspaces(e.g.streetsandparks)
insuburbs.Autonomousadaptationsaffecting
resilienceandmitigationcanincludeactionslike
plantingtreestoincreaseshading,installingponds
anddomesticrain-watersystems,improving
passiveventilationandinsulation,andensuring
additionsandextensionstohomesinclude
resilientducting,cablinganddrainage.Plannedor
communaladaptationsofthepublicrealmcould
includemeasuressuchas,providingadditional
publicopenspace,‘greening’publicspaces,or
implementinggreenroofsataneighbourhood
scale.
• The anticipatory and long term nature of change
required.Akeyissueformanyclimatechange
actionsisthattheyare,inthemain,anticipatory,
ratherthanreactive.Effectiveadaptationmayalso
needtobeachievedthroughamixofprivateand
jointadaptations.However,itiswellestablished
thatthereareseriousproblemsingettingpeople
toactinanticipationofpredictedclimatechange,
i.e.forautonomousadaptations,andthisis
particularlythecaseincapitalintensivesectors,
suchasthebuiltenvironment(Fewetal,2006).
Furthermoresuburbanareastendtolackthe
meansforco-ordinatingplannedorcommunal
changes(intermsofmanagementstructures,
fragmentedpropertyownershippatternsand
institutionalcapacity).
1.4 A conceptual rationale of suburban adaptation
Giventhiscontext,theSNACCprojectdeveloped
aconceptualrationalewhichinformeditsresearch
design(Figure1.1).Thisexplainsthelogicofour
researchquestionsandfocus,andunderpinsour
choiceofmethods.
ThestartingpointistherealisationthatEngland’s
suburbswillbeaffectedbyclimatechangeforthe
foreseeablefuture(A,inFigure1.1).Theseimpacts
willbeonboth‘place’and‘people’.Places(homes,
gardens,streetsandopenspaces)willbeaffected
by,forexampledroughts,andfloodandstorm
damage.Peoplewillbeaffectedthroughissuessuch
ascomfort,costofdamagetobuildings,andhealth
impacts.Theimpactsmaybegradual(e.g.brought
aboutbyincreasesinsummertemperatures)orthe
resultofextremeevents,suchasfloodsandheat
waves.Inordertominimisefutureclimatechange,
suburbswillalsoneedtobecomelessenergy
richandreduceemissions.Hence,mitigationand
adaptationneedtobeconsideredtogetheratall
times.
Toensuresuburbsarewelladapted,arangeof
measurestomodifythephysicalenvironment
tocopewith,andmitigate,futurechangecould
beemployed(B,inFigure1.1).Thesemeasures
rangefromsmallscalechangestohomes,such
asattachingshutterstoexternalwalls,tomajor
remodellingandlandscapingprojects,suchas
introducingsustainableurbandrainagesystems.
Differentadaptationmeasurescanbeemployed
againstdifferentclimatethreats,andnotallwillbe
appropriateinallsuburbs.
Fromthisrangeofpotentialadaptationmeasures,
the‘best’(effective,feasibleandacceptable)
optionsneedtobeimplementedifsuburbsare
tobecomeresilientandliveable.Yet,theability
tomakechangesinsuburbsisafunctionoftheir
‘responsecapacity’(C,inFigure1.1).Response
capacitieswillvarydependingonanumberof
factors.Theexistinglocationandnatureofthe
physicalenvironmentwillbesignificant,butthe
economic,governance,knowledgeandcultural
conditionsarealsolikelytoshapewhatispossiblein
suburbanareas.Withinthesecontexts,anumberof
potentialstakeholderscouldbeinvolvedinmaking
therequiredchanges.Majorplayersarelikelyto
includeresidents,communities,landlordsandlocal
authorities.However,theirreasons(includingability
andmotivation)foractingarelikelytobecomplex,
andwillshapetheresponsecapacityofanygiven
neighbourhood.
Thepurposeoftheprojectistodetermine,from
thiscontextualstartingpoint,whichadaptation
measuresare‘best’indifferentsuburbancontexts
(D,inFigure1.1).Itisalsoimportanttounderstand
theprocessesofchange,andidentifytheconditions
thatmighthinderorfacilitateeffectiveadaptation.
14
1.5 The structure of the report
Thereportnowsetsout,inmoredetail,theoverall
approachoftheSNACCprojectandthemethods
employedintheresearch(Chapter2).Itthen
summariseshowtheprojectdefinedEnglishsuburbs
(anddevelopedatypologyforuseintheresearch)
(Chapter3),andsetsoutthepotentialadaptations
thatcouldbeimplementedinEnglishsuburbs
(Chapter4).Thepolicycontextforsuburbanchange
isthendescribed(Chapter5).
Thereportthensetsouttheempiricalworkofthe
study.ItdescribesstudiesfromsixEnglishsuburbs
andoutlinestheclimatethreatsthattheyfaceand
thepotentialadaptationsthattheycouldemploy
(Chapter6).Itthengivesthekeyfindingsonthe
potentialforoverheatinginsuburbs(Chapter7),and
onresidents’andotherstakeholders’responsesto
adaptation(Chapters8and9).Thereportconcludes
withkeymessagesaboutthe‘best’suburban
adaptationsolutions,andthechallengesofbringing
aboutsuburbanchange(Chapter10).
Figure 1.1 Aconceptualrationalefortheconditionsandchallengesunderlyingsuburbanadaptation
15
2.1 Introduction
Thissectionprovidesabriefsummaryofthe
approachandmethodsadoptedbytheSNACC
project.Theprojectadopteda‘socio-technical’
approachtoestablishtheperformanceofanumber
ofpotentialclimatechangeadaptionandmitigation
measuresforsuburbsandtotesttheirfeasibility
andacceptabilitywitharangeofstakeholders
likelytobeinvolvedintheirimplementation.The
researchmethodsareacombinationofmodelling,
visualisationsandresidents’andstakeholders’
workshops.Theresearchwasundertakeninsix
suburbs(representingdifferentsuburbantypologies,
seeChapter3)inthreecities:Oxford,Stockportand
Bristol.Theresearchwasundertakeninfivephases
(Figure2.1).
2.2 Overall approach (summary)
SNACC’soverallapproachwastodevelopandthen
test(foreffectiveness, feasibility and acceptability)
arangeofadaptationoptions(singularlyandin
‘packages’)fordifferenttypesofsuburbinEngland.
Insodoing,wealsosoughttounderstandhow
andwhydifferentadaptationsmayormaynot
beimplemented(nowandinthefuture):i.e.we
soughttounderstandmoreabouttheprocessesof
suburbanadaptation.
The SNACC research project - approach and methods
Chapter 2
Theeffectivenessoftheproposedadaptationswas
assessedthroughmodelling(forsomemeasures)
andbyusingexistingdata(forothers).Wewere
seekingtofindoutwhichadaptationmeasures
‘worked’,i.e.didthejobtheyweredesignedtodo,
beit,forexample,coolingorallowingstormwater
todrainaway,withoutnegativeimpactssuchas
increasingcarbonemissionsinthelongterm.
Foreachcasestudysuburbtheclimateriskswere
assessedandasetofpotentialadaptationswas
identified.Ineachcasetheeffectivemeasureswere
thentakenforwardandpresentedtoresidentsin
thatsuburbtodeterminetheirviewsonthefeasibility
andacceptabilityoftheadaptationoptions.
Tofacilitatemeaningfuldiscussionsatthe
workshops,someoftheadaptationswerevisualised
usingcomputergraphicstohelpresidentsseewhat
eithertheirhouseorgardenortheirneighbourhood
lookedlikewiththeproposedadaptationoption.
Wealsoexploredtheeffectsonpropertyvaluesof
someadaptations(usingahedonichousepricing
model)and,whereappropriate,thisinformationwas
alsopresentedtoresidents.Attheworkshops,the
participantswerealsopresentedwiththeresults
frommodellingthatshowedtheoverheatingrisks
totheirhomesandtheeffectivenessofdifferent
Phase 5 Determining
findings
WP9:Determining
‘best’adaptation
packages
Phase 4 Testing
WP8:Testingadapta-
tionsforfeasibility
andacceptabilitywith
residentsandstake-
holders
Phase 3 Modelling
WP7:Modellinga
selectionofpotential
adaptations
Phase 2 Data
Collection
WP6:Selectingcase
studyneighbour-
hoods,collecting
baselinedatafor
thecasestudies,
identifyingclimate
risk,selectinglocal
adaptations
Phase 1 Enabling the
research
WP1:Climate
changescenarios
WP2:Socio-cultur-
al,governanceand
policycontext
WP3:Typol-
ogyofsuburban
neighbourhoods&
potentialadapta-
tions
WP4:Modelof
hedonicpricing
WP5:DECoRuM
andVEPs
Figure 2.1 SNACCprojectphases
Chapter 2
16
adaptationswithrespecttocooling.Foreaseof
understandingforparticipants,wesummarised
theadaptationoptionsinto:‘mitigation:homeand
garden’,‘summer:homeandgarden’(dealingmainly
withadaptationsaroundheatstressandwater
shortages)and‘winter:homeandgarden’(dealing
mainlywithadaptationsaroundstorms,increased
precipitationandflooding).Wethendiscussed
neighbourhoodissuesaround‘streets’and‘green
spaces’.Fortheneighbourhoodscalewedealtwith
mitigationandadaptationissuessimultaneously.
Weacknowledgethatthesegroupingsarean
oversimplificationofclimatechangepatterns,but
theywereanecessaryshorthandforengagingwith
residentsandstakeholders.Attheworkshopsthe
residentsgavetheirviewsonclimatechangeandthe
adaptationsweshowedthem.
Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopswere
thenpresentedtolocalinstitutionalstakeholders
(includingrepresentativesfromlocalgovernment,
NGOs,andbuiltenvironmentalprofessions)at
astakeholderworkshopineachcitytofindout
theirresponsestoboththeadaptationsandto
theresidents’views.Throughthisprocesswe
determinedtheeffective,feasibleandacceptable
adaptationsolutionsfromtheperspectiveof
institutionalstakeholders,andlearntaboutwhatwas
helpingand/orhinderingadaptation,andabouthow
toenableorpromoteadaptiveaction.Forclarity:
• Byeffectivewemeant:theadaptationdidthejob
itwasdesignedtodo,withoutadverseimpacts
(i.e.itcooledahome,orpreventedstormdamage
withoutadverseeffects).
• Byfeasiblewemeant:theadaptationwas
possibletoimplementinaparticularplace,given
theexistingneighbourhoodmorphologyand
housingconditions(i.e.wedidnottestcavitywall
insulationinsuburbswithsolidwalls).Another
considerationwasthatthescaleoftheadaptation
wasappropriateforthesuburbinquestion(i.e.
wedidnottestmajorfloodbarriersorlarge-scale
infrastructurechangesasthesewerenotfeasible
atthelocalscaleofourcasestudysuburbs).
• Byacceptablewemeant:theadaptationwasone
thatstakeholderswouldbelikelytoimplementor
welcomeintheirneighbourhood.Thismeantthat,
forexample,thatitwas‘acceptable’intermsof
cost,visualappearance,andabsenceofnegative
side-effects.
2.3 The research methodology
Themethodologywassplitintofivephasesand
nineworkpackages(WPs),(Figure2.1).Thissection
describesthekeyelementsofeach.
TheresearchstartedinSeptember2009.Priorto
theresearchcommencinganAdvisory Boardwas
setuptohelpsteertheresearchandshapethe
natureofenquiry.Ataveryearlystagewealsoheld
anInternational Visiting Researchers Conference,
whichwasattendedbyexpertsinsuburban
adaptationfromtheUSA,Portugal,Australiaand
Swedentosharetheirexperiencesofdifferent
climaticconditions,adaptationactions,policiesand
governanceconditions.AllAdvisoryBoardmembers
andcontributionstothisconferencecanbefoundat
www.snacc-research.org.uk.
Phase 1 (Year 1)involvedarangeofbackground
workthatwasneededtoenablethecasestudiesto
takeplaceandtohelpunderstandtheproblemof
adaptingsuburbs.Itwasalsonecessarytogenerate
thedatarequiredtoundertakethemodellingand
visualisationwork,andtodevelopthemodellingand
visualisationtools.Hence,inthisphasewe:
• Developed climate change scenarios for our
three case study cities(WP1).Thesearesetoutin
Chapter6.
• Developed an understanding of the socio-
cultural and governance issuessurrounding
suburbanadaptation,whichcouldhavean
impactonresponsecapacity(WP2).Thisphase
informedourselectionofcasestudies.Wealso
documented the current English policy context
forsuburbanadaptation(WP2).Thisispresented
inChapter5.
• Developed a typology of English suburbs and a
‘master list’ of potential adaptation optionsthat
couldbeimplementedinEnglishsuburbs(WP3).
Thiswasachievedfollowingaliteratureandpolicy
review,andispresentedinChapters3and4,and
AppendixDandE.
• Developed a model of hedonic pricing,that
exploredtheimpactonpropertyvaluesofarange
ofadaptationoptionsandsuburbanconditions
(WP4).Whereappropriate,thefindingsofthis
workwereusedintheresidents’andstakeholders’
17
workshops.Adetailedexplanationofthemodel
anditsfindingsisgiveninAppendixA,buta
summaryispresentedhere.
Thehedonic pricing modellingaimedto
determinewhichneighbourhoodadaptation
features,houseenergyconsumptionattributes
andenvironmentalcharacteristics(ofthewider
neighbourhood)arecapitalisedintothevalueof
residentialproperty.Hencethehedonicpricing
modelwasdevelopedtoanalysepotentialhousing
marketresponsestosuburbanadaptationoptions.
However,becausemanyoftheadaptationswe
areinterestedinarenotwidelyapplied,itisnot
yetpossibletomodelthefullrangeofadaptations
(e.g.therearefewcommunitycoolroomsorgreen
roofsinEngland).Inaddition,manyofthechanges
wearelookingataretoosubtletosignificantly
influenceprice(forexample,elevationofelectrical
sockets).However,throughareviewofexisting
literatureandanalysisofextensivedatabasesof
propertytransactions/valuesitwaspossibleto
throwsomelightontheimpactonhouseprices
ofstreettrees,gardens,accessibilitytoopen
space,flooding,neighbourhoodcharacteristics
andlayout,andphysicaladaptationsthatimprove
energyefficiency(insulation,doubleglazing,
solarpanelsetc).Intermsofthemodelling,the
empiricalstudyfocusedontheimpactofenergy
efficiency(SAP)rating,insulation,doubleglazing,
heatingsystems,gardensandaccessibilitytoopen
space.Generallythemeasuresassessedhada
positiveeffectonhousevalues(i.e.betteradapted
housesinbetteradaptedneighbourhoodssell
forhigherpricesthanmal-adaptedones,allother
thingsbeingequal).Wethentestedwhetherthis
wasamotivatorforhouseholderstoinvestinsuch
measures,ortosupporttheirintroduction,during
theworkshops.
• Developed two existing models (DECoRuM©
[Domestic Energy, Carbon counting and
carbon Reduction Model] and VEPS [Virtual
Environmental Planning System]) for use in the
SNACC project (WP5).Anexplanationofthe
developmentofthemodelsisgiveninAppendices
BandC.However,abriefsummaryofeachis
usefulheretounderstandtheirpurposeand
scope.
DECoRuM©(DomesticEnergy,Carboncounting
andcarbonReductionModel)isaGIS-based
toolkitforcarbonemissionsreductionplanning
withthecapabilitytoestimatecurrentenergy-
relatedCO2emissionsandtheeffectivenessof
mitigationstrategiesinexistingUKdwellings.The
resultscanbeaggregatedtoastreet,district
andcitylevel(Gupta,2008;Gupta,2009).The
aggregatedmethodofsimulationandmap-based
presentationallowstheresultstobescaledupfor
largerapplicationandassessment.
FortheSNACCproject,DECoRuMwasfurther
developedasDECoRuM-Adapt©toanalysethe
impactofclimatechangeonenergyuseand
comfort.DECoRuM-Adaptusesdownscaled
climatedatafromUKCP09(DEFRA,2012a)to
estimateprobabilisticfutureoverheatingpotential
andtheeffectivenessofadaptationstrategiesfor
modelleddwellings.Toinformthemodel,actual
homeandneighbourhoodcharacteristicsneed
tobegatheredfrommaps,on-siteassessments
andliteraturedescribinghomecharacteristics
basedonageandtypology.Themodelcanexport
awealthofstatisticalinformation.ForSNACCwe
wereinterestedinannualCO2emissions,running
costsandoverheatingpotential(particularlythe
potentialoncevariousadaptationpackageshad
beenapplied).Figure2.2showsoutputs(inthis
caseCO2emissions)fromthemodelfortwo
neighbourhoodsinBristol.
18
The VEPs (Virtual Environmental Planning
System) isaGeographicalInformationSystem
(GIS)basedvisualisationthatcreatesinteractive
andaccurateimagesof3Durbanenvironments.
Theaimofthevisualisationwastoenableresidents
andstakeholderstoviewandanalyseproposed
adaptationoptionsinordertounderstandtheir
effectsontheexistinghousingandneighbourhood
andmakedecisionsabouttheiracceptability
(Figure2.3).Weusedthevisualisationtoenablethe
workshopparticipantstograspcomplexinformation
aboutpotentialadaptations,andtoassesstheir
acceptability,includingtheirvisualimpact,onthe
existingenvironment.Theimagesshow‘snapshots’
fromthedynamicmodel.
Phases 2 and 3 of the project(Year2)involved
selectingthecasestudies,gatheringbaseline
dataonthem,identifyingtheclimaterisksineach
case,andidentifyingtherangeofadaptationsto
betestedineachofthedifferenttypesofsuburb
(WP6).ThisworkispresentedinChapter6.Wethen
modelledarangeofpotentialadaptationoptions
(usingDECoRuM),specificallytodeterminetheir
overheatingrisk,andtofindoutwhichadaptation
packagesmightreducethatrisk(WP7).Thisis
presentedinChapter7.
Phases 4 and 5(Year3)involvedtestingthefeasibility
andacceptabilityoftheadaptationpackageswith
residentsandstakeholdersatstructuredworkshops.
Wedrewtogetherallthepreviousinformationwe
Figure 2.2:DECoRuMmapsshowingCO2emissionsfortwoneighbourhoodsinBristol(Source:Digimap,2012;The
DECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnance
SurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance
Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Figure 2.3:VirtualenvironmentofoneoftheBristol
casestudies,showinganeighbourhoodbeforeandafter
adaptation.Modelsreproducedunderthetermsofthe
Contractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurvey
DatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil,Maps
©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance
Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
19
hadgatheredonadaptationsforeachcasestudy
fromtheliteratureandpolicyreview,fromthe
modelling(fromtheHedonicPricingModeland
theDECoRuMmodel),andfromthevisualisations
(usingtheVEPS)andpresentedthistobothresident
andinstitutionalstakeholders.Theresidentswere
shown,forexample,theirneighbourhoods’risk
ofoverheatingandwhichadaptationsmighthelp
reducetherisk.Theywerealsoshowntherange
ofadaptationsthatmight,forexample,prevent
damagefromfloodsorstorms,helpthemconserve
water,andmitigateagainstfurtherclimatechange.
Theyweregiveninformationonwhatthese
adaptationsdo,howmuchtheycost,andwhatthey
looklike.Theinstitutionalstakeholdersreflected
ontheirownexperiencesofworkingonadaptation
ineachcity,butalsoontheresponsesthatthe
residentshadgiveninthetwocasestudysuburbsin
theircity.
Weheldsevenresidentsworkshopsinsixsuburbs
(weheldtwointhesamesuburbinBristolbecauseof
localdemand).Thegroupswereofbetween6and15
people.Theywererecruitedusingapostalinvitation.
Attheworkshopswediscussed:
• residents’experiencesofdifferentweatherevents
(heatwaves,floods,storms);
• theirattitudestowardsclimatechange;
• theirfamiliaritywiththerangeofadaptation
measuresthatcouldbeeffectiveintheir
neighbourhood(atthehome,gardenand
neighbourhoodscales);
• whethertheyhave(orwouldconsider)
implementingthesemeasures,andtheirreasons
fordoingso,and;
• iftheywouldnotconsiderimplementingthe
measures,thenwhatthekeybarriersand
incentivesmightbe.
Thefindingsfromtheresidentsworkshopsare
presentedinChapter8.
Wethenheldthreestakeholderworkshops
(oneineachcity).Thestakeholdersincluded
representativesfromawiderangeoforganisations
including:localauthorities(bothofficersfrom
developmentcontrol,climatechange,strategic
housing,drainagemanagementandelected
councillors);theEnvironmentAgency;regional
bodieswithaninterestinclimatechangeadaptation
(ClimateSouthEast);theNationalHealthService
(publichealth);UnitedUtilities(water);Non-
GovernmentalOrganisations(LondonFlooding
Alliance,BristolGreenDoors,BristolHousing
Foundation);thebuildingandconstruction
industry(theFederationofMasterBuildersand
architecturalpracticesengagedindomesticwork);
andcommunitygroups(withinterestsinlowcarbon
issuesandfloodprotection).
Attheseworkshopswediscussed:
• Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopsin
eachcity,andthestakeholders’experiencesof
workingwithhouseholdslocally;
• Theroleofcommunitiesinadaptation;
• Howthestakeholdersarecurrentlytackling
adaptation;
• Theroleofplanningandbuildingregulationsin
adaptations;
• Thebestmechanismsfordeliveringadapted
suburbs.
Thefindingsofthestakeholderworkshopsare
presentedinChapter9.
Phase 5(Year3)oftheresearchinvolved
synthesisingtheinformationfromalltheprevious
strandsoftheresearchtodeterminethe‘best’
adaptationpackagesforthedifferenttypesof
suburb.Thisphasealsodrewoutkeyfindingsabout
theprocessesofadaptationandhowtoenablemore
effectiveadaptationinthefuture.Thissynthesisand
conclusionsarepresentedinChapter10.
20
21
A Typology of English suburbs
3.1 Introduction
Inordertounderstandhowbesttoadaptsuburbs,
itisimportanttodeterminepreciselywhatasuburb
is.However,thisisnotstraightforward:astheRICS
andCABEcommented:‘Oneofthekeychallenges
affectingourunderstandingofsuburbiaisthefailure
ofdefinitionandclassification’(RICSandCABE,
2008).Historically,suburbshavebeendefinedeither
bytheirphysicalcharacteristics,usuallydominated
bymorphology,relatedtotheerainwhichthey
werebuilt,(seeforexampleGwilliametal.,1998),or
bythecharacteristicsoftheirpopulations(socio-
demographictypologieshavebeendeveloped,
forexamplebyBondandInsalaco,2007),orby
characterisationsofphysicalandsocialdemographic
criteriaincombination(McManusandEthington,
2007).
SNACChasadoptedanoverarchingdefinitionof
‘asuburb’,buthasalsodevisedatypology,based
mainlyonphysicalcharacteristics(adaptedfrom
Gwilliametal.,1998).TheprojectusesURBED
andSEERA’s(2004)definitionofasuburb,which
recognisesbothsimilaritiesanddifferencesin
areacharacteristicsasthebasisofidentifyingand
distinguishingbetweensuburbanneighbourhoods.
Figure3.1setsoutthesecharacteristicswiththe
lefthandcolumnshowingthecommonelements
foundinmostsuburbsandtherighthandcolumn
givingthedifferentiatingcharacteristics.Basedon
thesecharacteristicswearetakingEnglishsuburbs
tobeareasthatare:largelyresidential;peripheral
(tothecitycentre);medium-lowdensity;mainly
owner-occupied;anddominatedbyfamilyhousing.
However,thischaracteristationhighlightsthat
suburbanneighbourhoodscanbedistinguished
inrelationtodifferencesinage,location,linkages,
layouts,accessibilityandsoon.Although
emphasisingphysicalfeatures,thecharacteristics
setoutinFigure3.1doincludesomesocio-
economicelements(suchashomeownership).
SomeofthecommoncharacteristicsinthisFigure
havebeenchallengedbysuburbanscholars.
Forexample:ratherthanbeingpredominately
residential,somesuburbsarenowvery‘mixed’in
termsofuse(FrancisandWheeler,2006);some
recentlydevelopedsuburbsaremedium-high
density,ratherthan‘low’densityareas(Joynt,2011);
andsomesuburbsareinhabitedbymoreretired
householdsthanfamilieswithchildren.However,
atpresent,suchcasesremainexceptionsanddo
notinvalidatethecharacterisation.Thissaid,future
demographicandurbanformtrendswillclearlymake
revisionsnecessaryinyearstocome.
Characteristics in common Important differences
Predominantlyresidentialareas
Towardstheedgeoftownsandcities
Primarilyfavoredbyandforfamilies
Servinganurbanarea(s)
Relativelylowdensityhousing
Mainlyowneroccupied
Oftenwithgreen,publicspace
‘Detached’orsemi-detachedintermsof
preferredlivingstyle
Desirabilityandvalue
Age
Location
Accesstopublictransport
Parkingprovision
Linkageswithotherplaces
Roadlayoute.g.extentofculs-de-sac
Accessto(andqualityof)services(schools,healthfacili-
ties,shops)
Qualityandquantityofopenspace
Source:adaptedfromURBEDandSEERA,2004
Figure 3.1Definingcharacteristicsofsuburbs
Chapter 3
22
3.2 Defining England’s suburbs: developing a typology for use in the
research
ThetypologyofsuburbsusedinSNACCisshownin
Figure3.2.ItisadaptedfromGwilliametal.(1998)
whodevelopedthecategorisationbasedonbuilt
formandneighbourhoodsetting.Gwilliametal.’s
typologyisthemostwidelycitedinBritishsuburban
studies(e.g.Francisandwheeler,2006,URBED,
2002,2006;Kochan,2007).Thetypesofsuburb
identifiedare;historicinnersuburb,plannedsuburb,
suburbantown,publictransportsuburbandcar
suburb.Wehaveupdatedandslightlyrefinedthis
typologytoinclude:inner-historicsuburb,pre-war
‘gardensuburb’,interwarsuburb,socialhousing
suburb,carsuburbandmedium-highdensitysuburb
(partlyafterURBED,2002).Theadditionof‘medium-
highdensitysuburbs’coversthepolicy-ledtrend
formoreintensivebuiltformdevelopmentsince
themid1990s.Toassistinclarifyingthetypologies,
photographshavealsobeenaddedofeachofthe
typesdescribed.
Inusingthistypologyitisalsorecognisedthat
suburbsarenotstaticenvironments:theyare
continuallychanging,andtherearethosewhoargue
thatmanysuburbsarenowso‘mixed’intermsof
buildingtypethatmorphologicaltypologiesare
redundant(McManusandEthington,2007).Itis
alsothecasethatthenon-physicaldifferences
betweensuburbs,intermsofsocio-economicand
governanceconditionsareimportant,particularlyin
framingresponsestoclimatechange.However,asa
basisforunderstandingthepossibilitiesforchange
tothephysicalconditionsofdifferentsuburbs,itis
importanttoidentifythepredominantbuiltforms
presentinEngland,andtotestadaptationmeasures
inthesedifferentsettings(SNACC’ssixcasestudy
suburbsarerepresentativeofeachofthesetypes).
Suburbsclearlydochangefromtheiroriginalforms,
butinmostinstancestheoriginallayoutsand
dwellingscontinuetoinfluencedevelopment,and
itisfortheseenduringelementsthatadaptation
solutionsneedtobefound.
23
Type Characteristics Era Examples
InnerHistoric
Suburb
Establishedterracedorsemi-detached
developments.Theseareasdisplaymainlyurban
qualities,includinghighdensities,amixofuses,
goodpedestrianandpublictransportlinks
Victorian/
Edwardian-
upto1919
Pre-War‘Garden
Suburb’
Medium-largesemianddetachedhomes
withlargegardens.Formerenclavesthathave
beenabsorbedbythetownorcity(usually
successfully)
1900s-1930s
‘InterwarPeriod’: Mediumdensity,homogeneousspeculative
suburbs,usuallysemi-detached,inaclosely
structuredurbanfabric
1920s-1930s
SocialHousing
Suburb
‘CouncilEstates’withamixofhousetypes
includingdetachedandsemi-detachedhouses,
shortterracesandmediumriseblocks
1950-1970s
CarSuburb Lowdensity,detachedhousinginhomogenous
housetypes.Developer–led,speculative
suburbs,oftenlocatedwithin‘open’townscape
fringeareasincludingwithincloseproximityto
motorways,andout-of-townshoppingcentres.
Sprawlingsuburbs,includingculs-de-sac.
Late
1970s-2000s
Medium-High
DensitySuburbs
Medium-highdensity,oftenwithamixof
housetypesincludingtownhouses,detached
andsemi-detachedhouses,terracesand
apartments.Anoutcomeofthepolicydrive
formoreintensivedevelopmentinurban
extensionsandwithinexistingsuburbs
Mid-1990s-
present
Figure 3.2TypologyofEnglishsuburbs(adaptedfromGwilliametal.,1998andURBED,2002)
24
25
Chapter 4
4.1 Climate change in suburbs
Thischaptersummarisesthepotentialthreatsof
climatechangeinEnglishsuburbs.Itthensetsouta
rangeofadaptationsthatcouldbeimplementedat
thehome,gardenandneighbourhoodscales.
TheprincipalimpactsofclimatechangethatEnglish
suburbsarelikelytoexperienceinthefutureare:
• Higheraveragetemperatures(suburbswillnotonly
beaffectedbyaveragetemperatureincreases,but
willexperienceanenhancedincreasethroughthe
urbanheatislandeffect);
• Increasedextremeheatevents(orheatwaves);
• Increaseinextremeweathereventsor
‘storminess’(includingrain,wind,hail);
• Increasedaveragewinterrainfall;
• Decreasedaveragesummerrainfall;
• Sealevelriseandincreasedstormsurgeheight
(wedidnotincluderisksfromsealevelrisein
ourstudyduetotherelativelysmallnumberof
suburbsaffected,andthespecialistadaptations
required).
Ofcourse,notallsuburbswillexperiencethese
impactsequally:thereareregionalvariations
anddifferencesduetolocalconditions,suchas
topographyandmorphology,whichgeneratemicro-
climates.Probabilisticdataareavailableformost
ofthesechangesfromUKCP09:thesedatawere
usedatthecityandcasestudyscaleinSNACC(see
Chapter6).Insuburbs,theseclimatechangesare
experiencedbypeoplemainlythroughthesecondary
risksandsomepotentialbenefitsthattheypose.
Someexamplesoftheseimpactsaregivenbelow
(Figure4.1)(categorised,asintheworkshops,into
‘summer’and‘winter’effects).
Potential climate risks and adaptation options for English suburbs
Likely climate changes Impacts on ‘place’ Impacts on ‘people’
‘Summer’impacts
(hotteranddrier)
• Deteriorationofgreenspace,gardens,
playingfieldsandpublicparks
• Longergrowingseasonforsome
plantsandvegetables
• Reducedairquality
• Changesinbiodiversity(althoughmay
allowagreatervarietyofgardencrops)
• Increasedlikelihoodofsubsidencedue
tosoilshrinkage(particularlyonclay
soils)
• Reduceddesignlifeofnon/mal-
adaptedbuildings
• Reducedcomfort:heatstroke,difficulty
sleepingandcarryingoutgeneral
domesticactivities(indoorsand
outside)
• Reducedproductivity(forhome
workers,employeesinsuburbs)
• Increasedrespiratoryproblems
• Reducedsecurityduetouseofnatural
ventilation
• Increasedcostsrelatedtobuilding
subsidence
• Increasedcostsduetomechanical
cooling
• Watershortages:restrictionson
domesticsuppliesandqualityreduction
• Morewarmdaystoenjoyoutdoor
activities
‘Winterimpacts’
(slightlywarmer,butwetter,
withmorestorms)
• Flooddamage
• Stormdamagetobuildings,natural
landscapeandinfrastructure
• Increaseindampandmould
• Humanimpactsofflooddamage:
displacement,trauma,costs(worsefor
somegroups,e.g.elderlypeople)
• Increasedcostsofrepairingfloodand
stormdamageandmaintaininghomes
• Investmentsinhomeslessstableafter
floods
• Healthproblemslinkedtopoorerindoor
airquality:respiratoryproblems
• Maybecostsavingonwinterfuel
Figure 4.1
Examplesofexpected
climatechangeimpacts
inEnglishsuburbs
26
4.2 Determining the range of adaptation and mitigation options that could be implemented in suburbs to address a range of climate threats
Inordertobothmitigateagainstfurtherclimate
change,andtoadapttoinevitablechanges,arange
ofadaptationmeasurescouldbeimplemented.
Aliteraturereviewidentifiedover100possible
changesthatcouldbemadetothephysical
environmentinsuburbstorespondtothechanges
outlinedabove.Theseadaptationsrangefromvery
smallscalechangestothehome,suchaselevating
electricalsocketstoreducedamagefromflooding,
tolargescalestrategies,suchasdemolishingwhole
neighbourhoodsinfloodplains.Wecompileda
‘masterlist’ofadaptationstotestinSNACC.We
arenotadvocatingthattheseadaptationswouldbe
effectiveinallcircumstances,wearemerelylisting
themaspossibleactionsinatleastsomesuburban
neighbourhoods.
Thefull‘masterlist’ofadaptationoptionscanbe
foundinAppendixD.Itdetailstheadaptationswhich
wereidentifiedasappropriatefortheneighbourhood
typesselectedinthecasestudies.Notallofthe
adaptationswereappropriateforallofthesuburbs,
buteachoftheadaptationspresentedisappropriate
foratleastoneofthem.Theoptionswerechosen
toaddresseitherthemitigationoffutureclimate
Built environment
scale/elementExamples of potential adaptation and/or mitigation options
Neighbourhood • Increasegreenery:greeninfrastructure
• Improvewater/drainagefeatures:installSustainableUrbanDrainageSystems
• Installlocalisedflooddefences:toprotectasingledwellingorgroupofdwellingsina
neighbourhood
• Restrictinfilldevelopmentonsoilswithpotentiallyhighinfiltrationandfloodplains
• Adaptpublicamenities:addshadeandstormprotectiontopublicbuildings,busstops,cycle
pathsetc.introducecommunitycoolrooms
• Replacepavementsandroadswithporous,‘cool’materials
• Introduceinfrastructuretoencouragewalkingandcycling,reduceparkingspaces,addcycle
paths
• Allocatecommunallandforfoodgrowing
• Installcommunityenergygeneratinginfrastructure
• Installenergyefficientstreetlighting
Garden • Increasegreenery:planttreeswithlargecanopiesandheattolerantplants
• Installwaterfeatures
• Installrainwaterharvestingsystems
• Removenon-poroussurfaces
• Setasidespaceforfoodgrowing
• Improve/maintaingardenstructures(fences,shedsetc.againststormdamage)
Home • Regulatetemperature:e.g.addexternalshutters,shadesorcanopiestowalls,installsolar
shading,interpaneglazing,solarfilm,installwindowsthatlockopentoaidventilation,solar
chimneyordowndraughtevaporativecoolingtowers,introducethermalmass,addgreen/
brownroof
• Protecthomefromstormsandfloods:e.g.weatherproofdoors,windows,walls,floorsand
roof;elevateentrythresholds,internalsocketsandservices;installairbrickcoversandflash
flooddoors
• Improveairquality:e.g.useUVlightorantimicrobialsolutionstopreventmould,improve
naturalventilation
• Installwaterefficiencysystems(e.g.greywaterrecycling)
• Mitigateagainstfurtherclimatechange:e.g.insulatewallsandlofts,draftproofhomes,
introducemicroCHP,groundsourceheatpumps,solarPVandwaterheating
Figure 4.2
Examplesofpotential
adaptationand/or
mitigationoptionsthat
couldbeimplemented
inEngland’ssuburbs
changeoradaptationtothefuturerisksofclimate
change.Onlyadaptationswhichofferedeithera
neutralorpositiveimpactontheproductionof
greenhousegaseswereconsideredandsome
verylargescaleadaptations,e.g.thoserelatingto
majorinfrastructurewereomitted.Someofthe
adaptationsalsohavemorethanonebenefitand
thisisnoted(forexample,extendingtheeaves
onabuildingaddsshading,aswellasprotecting
propertiesfromtheimpactofheavyrain).
Theadaptationsarepresentedasapplicableto
homesandgardens(walls,roofs,windows,floors,
heating,cooling,power,ventilationsystems,water
systemsandgardens)andneighbourhoods(green
andblueinfrastructure,protectingexistingassets,
communityprovisions,streetsandpavements,
andlanduses–e.g.forfoodproduction).Figure4.2
givesasummaryofsomeadaptationsthatcouldbe
implemented(takenfromthemasterlist).Itpresents
thematneighbourhood,gardenandhomescales.
Forthepurposesoftheresidents’andstakeholders’
workshops,wepresentedadaptationoptionsthat
wereappropriateforeachsuburbtakingintoaccount
theclimaterisks,andtheurbandesignof,and
housingtypesin,theneighbourhood.
28
29
The policy context for suburban change
Chapter 5
5.1 Introduction
Suburbanneighbourhoodsarecomplexanddiverse
placesthatarelikelytoexperienceavariationof
impactsarisingfromclimatechange.Reflecting
thisdiversity,theagenciesandorganisations
implicatedinensuringthatbothsuburbanhousing
andsuburbanneighbourhoodscontinuetobesafe,
healthyandservicedplacesinthefaceofclimate
changecoverawiderangeofpolicysectorsand
territoriallevels.Thischapterdescribesthepolicy
andgovernancecontextsthatframethepossibilities
foradaptingsuburbanneighbourhoodsandhousing
inEngland.Itsetsouttherolesandresponsibilities
ofcentralandlocalgovernment,theimpactofthe
statutoryplanningsystemandtheimplementation
ofretrofittingprogrammesintheexistinghousing
stock.
5.2 Central and local government and climate change adaptation in suburban neighbourhoods
Thepolicycontextfortheadaptationofresidential
housing(andneighbourhoods)inEnglandtothe
challengesofclimatechangeisbothcomplexand
hasbeensubjecttoon-goingchangethrough
the2000sandtothepresentday.Responsibilities
forengagingandensuringtheappropriatequality
oftheEnglishhousingstockandresidential
urbanareasaresplitacrossanumberofdifferent
governmentdepartments(seeFigure5.1).Whereas
theDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRural
Affairs(DEFRA)retainstheoverallremittomonitor
climatechangeadaptation,itistheDepartment
forCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentthatmost
directlyretainsresponsibilityforensuringthequality
Department Policy theme/sector
DCLG(Communities
andLocalGovern-
ment)
Sustainablecommunities,statutoryplanningsystem,buildingregulations(andcodesincluding
energyperformancecertification),social(andaffordable)housing,localgovernment(in
generaltouchingonparks,roadsandservices),regeneration,lifetimehomes,emergency
services
DEFRA(Environment,
FoodandRuralAffairs)
Climatechangeadaptation(ingeneral),pollutionandwaste,floodinganddrainage,market
transformationprogramme(promotionofsustainableproducts)
DECC(Energyand
ClimateChange)
Climatechangemitigation(carbonemissionsissues),fuelpoverty,energypolicy(micro
generation),GreenDeal
DBIS(BusinessInnova-
tionandSkills)
Climatechangemitigation(carbonemissionsissues),fuelpoverty,energypolicy(micro
generation),GreenDeal
Treasury Houseprices,housingfinance,fiscalincentives,settingofcounciltaxandstampduty
DepartmentofHealth Housingforolderpeopleandpeopleinneedofcare
Figure 5.1 Centralgovernmentdepartmentsandsuburbanadaptation.
Chapter 5
30
ofboththehousingstockandthebuiltenvironment
throughlocalgovernment,spatialplanningpolicy,
andbuildingregulations.Equally,overrecentyears
theworkoftheDepartmentofEnergyandClimate
Change(DECC)onreducingcarbonemissionshas
cometobeanimportantdriverforretrofittingthe
Englishhousingstocktoincreaseenergyefficiency
andtodecreasefuelpoverty.
Thekeystructuringpolicydeviceforunderstanding
climatechangeadaptationinEnglandinbothcentral
andlocalgovernmentarisesfromtheClimate
ChangeAct2008(HMGovt,2008).Forthemostpart
theActisconcernedwithreducingcarbonemissions
fromtheUKasawholebutitdoesincludeprovisions:
forthesettingupofanAdaptationSub-Committee
oftheCommitteeonClimateChangetoscrutinise
theadaptationworkoftheUKGovernment;andfor
thedefinitionofa‘reportingduty’forpublicbodies
andstatutoryundertakersonrisksassociatedwith
climatechange(NAO,2009a).Forthepublicbodies
andstatutoryundertakersthisdutyamountsto
arequirementtoreporttotheCommitteeevery
fiveyearsontheactionstheyhavetakentoface
uptotheclimatechangechallenge.Thesereports
formpartoftheprocessofclimatechangerisk
assessment(CCRA),andaNationalAdaptationPlan
(NAP)withinwhichthebuiltenvironmentisaspecific
themeforattention(DEFRA,2012b).
Englishlocalauthoritieshaveawiderangeofroles
andresponsibilities,manyofwhichtouchupon
neighbourhoodsandhousing.Localauthoritiesare
responsibleforlocalplanning(bothintermsofplan-
makingandgrantingpermissiontodevelop).They
arealsoresponsibleforthemaintenanceandupkeep
oflocalroads,municipalparksandflooddefences,
andarelocaldrainageauthorities.Localauthorities
canbesignificantsociallandlordsandarelikelyto
bemajorlandownerswithregardstotheservices
theyprovide(includingschoolsandcommunity
centres).Localauthoritiesarekeyagenciesinsetting
outemergencyresponseplans(tofloodingorheat
wavesforexample).Between2000and2012English
localauthoritiesalsohadapowerofwell-beingthat
couldbedeployedtoallowthemtoengageinany
activity(notprohibitedbystatute)thatimprovedthe
well-beingoftheirresidents.
Duringtheperiod2008-10,localauthoritieswere
expectedtoreporttheiractivitiesinsupportof
tacklingclimatechangeagainstaperformance
measureknownasnationalindicator188(or
NI188).LocalauthorityperformanceonNI188
wasassessedonascaleof0(‘gettingstarted’)to
4(‘Implementation,monitoringandcontinuous
review’).However,sinceNovember2010local
authoritiesinEnglandhavenolongerneededto
reportprogressontacklingclimatechangeto
CentralGovernment.HoweverDCLGoutlinesthat
its‘sharedvision’withrespecttoclimatechange
adaptation‘isthatmostadaptationactionhappens
orneedstohappenatthelocalscale’(DCLG2011,
p.10).
Localauthoritieshavecontinuedtoaquire
responsibilitiesthatwillbeimplicatedbychanges
intheclimate.ForexampletheFloodsandWater
ManagementAct2010(HMGovt,2010)establishes
aSustainableDrainageSystemsApprovingBody
inunitaryorcountycouncilssuchthatlocal
governmentneedstoapprovedrainageschemes
forbothnewdevelopmentandforrefurbished
development(localauthoritieshavealsoacquireda
responsibilityforpublichealthissues).Hencelocal
authoritiesstillneedtoaddresstheimplicationsof
climatechangeacrosstheirareasincludingwithin
residentialneighbourhoodsevenifthisisless
explicitlylabelledasa‘climatechange’issuethan
mighthavebeenthecasepriorto2010.
31
5.3 Spatial planning and the housing stock
Anythingotherthanveryminorchangesinthe
suburbanenvironmentarenowcarriedoutunderthe
NationalPlanningPolicyFramework(NPPF)(DCLG,
2012b),andthroughcompliancewithbuilding
controlregulations.TheNPPFincludesadaptation
andmitigationasplanningobjectives:adaptationis
specificallyhighlightedasapriorityinrelationtoflood
risk.ButtheFrameworkprovideslittledetailorpolicy
drivenmechanismstosupportretrofittingthebuilt
environmenttoadapttoclimatethreats.
TheNPPFreplacesasuiteofPlanningPolicy
Statements(PPS)thatweremoredetailedand
prescriptiveinrelationtoclimatechange.Arevised
planningpolicystatement(PPS1)waspublishedin
December2007tosetoutobjectivesinrelationto
climatechange(DCLG,2007a).Shortlyafter,Area
BasedGrants(paymentstolocalplanningauthorities
inordertocarryoutvariousplanningroles)were
increasedtoreflectadditionalworkaroundtheissue
ofclimatechange.PPS1stressedtheimportance
ofdealingwithclimatechangeadaptation(aswell
asclimatechangemitigationmeasures)whereby
newdevelopment(includinghousing)‘shouldbe
plannedtominimisefuturevulnerabilityinachanging
climate’(2007,p.10).However,PPS1alsostated
thatdemandsupondeveloperstodealwithclimate
changeshouldbe‘proportionatetothescaleofthe
proposeddevelopment[and]itslikelyimpacton
andvulnerabilitytoclimatechange’(2007a,p.11).
Thisleftplanningofficersinaproblematicposition
giventhatdeveloperswerenotalwayssupportive
ofaplan-ledapproachtotacklingclimatechange:
of11developerswhorespondedtotheclimate
changePPSconsultation,tendidnotagreewiththe
propositionthattherewasaneedforurgentclimate
action(DCLG,2007b).
Inaddition,therewasalsoanincreasedawareness
ofpreventingdevelopmentinareasthatareat
riskofflooding(definedasa1ina100yearevent
undercurrentclimaticconditions).PlanningPolicy
Statement25(PPS25)(DCLG,2010)introduceda
risk-basedprocedurebywhichplannersmightjudge
theappropriatenessofdevelopmentproposalsfor
floodplaindevelopmentaswellasensuringthatthe
EnvironmentAgencyisconsultedonalldevelopment
proposalsonthefloodplain.Thisrisk-based
approachhasbeenretainedintheNPPF.
Intermsofaffectingadaptationinexistingsuburbs
however,theplanningsystemisrelativelylimited.Its
canonlyaffectthehousingstockintwoways:itcan
Figure 5.2
Developmentin
housingstock2000-
12(source:DCLG,
2012c)
32
regulatenewhousing(whichinexistingsuburbsis
likelytobeinfill,‘backland’orredevelopmentand;
itcanregulatemajorchanges(suchasextensions
andremodelling)inexistinghomes.Inbothcases
planningpermissionisrequired.Hence,theplanning
systemcannotforcehome-ownerstoadapttheir
property,butcanonlyshapedevelopmentwhen
someone(resident,builderand/ordeveloper)wants
tomakeachange.
Figure5.2showsthedegreeofimpactofthe
planningsystemontheEnglishhousingstocksince
2000.Thenumberofnewhousesbuiltonanannual
basisisshown(inred)andthenumberofplanning
applicationsmadebyhouseholderstocarryout
workontheirhome(inblue).Giventhattheannual
numberofplanningapplicationsforhouseholder
developmentarebetween200,000andjustunder
350,000,thisaccountsforbetween1%and2.3%
oftheowneroccupiedhousingstockinEngland.
Hence,thecapacityofthestatutoryplanningsystem
torapidlyre-shapetheexistingsuburbanhousing
stockisatbestlimited.
5.4 Policies and programmes shaping the building and maintenance of housing in England
InEngland,buildingregulationsdefinethe
appropriatelevelofperformancefromthebuilt
environment.Buildingregulationsaremadeupof
primarylegislationintheformoftheBuildingAct
1984(HMGovt,1984),secondarylegislationinthe
formoftheamendedbuildingregulations(2000)
andaseriesofother‘approveddocuments’.Building
regulationsonlyimpactonnewor‘significantly
altered’buildingsrequiringplanningpermission
(seeFigure5.2).Inrelationtoclimatechange
issuesbuildingregulationshavemainlytaken
intoconsiderationtheissueofcarbonemissions
(eitherintermsoftheconstructionmethodorthe
operationaluseofthebuilding).InparticularPartL1b
(2010)istheapproveddocumentthatspecifically
dealswiththeconservationoffuelandpowerin
existingdwellings,andPartFdealswithventilation
issues.Inthe2012reviewofthebuildingregulations
theremaybeareinforcementtofaceuptoissuesof
excessivesolargain.
Overandabovetheon-goingrevisionofbuilding
regulations,CentralGovernmentalsoproduced
aCodeforSustainableHomes(DCLG,2006)that
setoutabroadervisionofwhatconstitutesa
‘sustainablehome’introducingminimumstandards
inrelationtoenergyandwaterefficiency,notionsof
well-beingandlifetimeadaptabilityofthehousing
stock.Howeverthiscodeisonlyappliedtonew
buildingandforthemostpartithasbeeneffectively
appliedineithersocialhousingprojects(Housing
Associationsandotherregisteredsociallandlords)
orwithinaffordablehousingprojects(thatmight
includesomeelementsofowner-occupiedhomes).
Unlikebuildingregulations,theperformance
measuresintheCodeforSustainableHomesarenot
legallyenforceable.
Inparalleltobothchangesinthebuildingregulations
andthepublicationandsubsequentpiecemeal
implementationoftheCodeforSustainableHomes,
therehasbeenanon-goingconcerningovernment
inrelationtofuelpoverty.‘WarmFront’wasa
programmeforup-gradingthehomesoffuel-poor
householdswithbetterinsulationandheating
systemstoallowdisadvantagedhouseholdstostay
warmaffordably.TheWarmFrontprogrammewas
initiatedin2000witharevisionfortheperiod2005-
08.Fortheperiod2001-04,theschemeassisted
around900,000vulnerablehouseholds(Greenand
Gilbertson,2008)whilstfor2005-08itisestimated
thattheprogrammeintervenedin635,000dwellings
atacostofaround£852million(NationalAudit
Office,2009b).
The‘GreenDeal’isanemergingvehicleforfunding
theon-goingretrofittingofEnglishhousingwith
regardstoenergyefficiencythatwillbeopentoa
widerrangeofhouseholders(DECC,2010).Oneof
thefeaturesoftheproposed’Deal’isthatenergy
efficiencymeasurescarriedoutonpropertiesare
fundedthroughaloantobepaidbackasalevyon
householderenergybillsaftertheworkshavebeen
completed.Theliabilityassociatedwiththeenergy
efficiencymeasuresislinkedtothedwellingand
notthehouseholdersuchthatifthehouseholder
moves,itistheincominghouseholderwhotakes
responsibilityforpayingbacktheGreenDealloan.
HoweverinexplainingtheGreenDeal,DECChas
outlineda‘goldenrule’thatmightbeappliedto
retrofittinganyindividualdwellinginthisway:‘the
33
chargeattachedtothe[energy]bill[receivedbythe
applicantaftertheworks]shouldnotexceedthe
expectedsavings,andthelengthofthepayment
periodshouldnotexceedtheexpectedlifetimeof
themeasures’(DECC,2010,p.11).
Thustherehavebeenaseriesofon-goingreforms
bothtotheregulationsandcodesthatdefinewhatis
an‘appropriate’standardofhousinginEnglandand
aseriesoffundedprogrammesthathaveattempted
tomakechangesintheexistinghousingstockmore
energyefficient(especiallyinrelationtoheating).
Itisimportantthattheseregulationsandprogramme
interventionsensurethehousingstockisbetter
adaptedtotheprojectedclimateoverthenext50-
80years.
34
35
Chapters 6
The SNACC Case Studies: selection, climate change projections and suburb profiles
6.1 Introduction
ThisChapterexplainshowwechosethecasestudy
neighbourhoodsforSNACC.Itsetsoutthecriteria
weused,andpresentsthecasesinrelationtothese.
Itthenpresentstheclimatechangeprojectionsfor
eachofthethreecitiesstudied.Finally,wepresent
profilesofthesixcasestudies,showingtheclimate
riskstheyface,theirexistingphysicalconditions,and
theadaptationsselectedtotestineachone.
InordertoexaminesuburbanadaptationinEngland
inthemostcomprehensivewayaswaspossiblewe
chosetostudysixdifferentsuburbsreflectingthe
sixsuburbantypologiesdescribedinChapter3:inner
historic,pre-war,gardencity,interwar,socialhousing,
carsuburb,andmedium-highdensity.
Threefurthercriteriaalsoinformedourselections.
Itwasdeemedimportanttoselectsuburbsthathad
differentlevelsofeconomicresources,intermsof
thewealthofthehouseholds,asthiswasidentified
asapotentiallysignificantfactorindeterminingthe
responsecapacityinthesuburb.Hencewechose
suburbscharacterisedbydifferingincomelevels
(lowerandmedium-high).However,wealsowanted
toexploreifandhowlevelsofcommunityactivity(for
example,aroundenvironmentalissues)impacted
onresponsestoclimatechange.Hence,we
selectedsomesuburbswithahistoryofcommunity
activityandotherswithnone.Thiswasdetermined
byworkingwithourlocalauthoritypartners.In
addition,itwasimportanttoselectsuburbsthat
hadexperiencedsomedegreeofflooding(orat
leastfloodrisk),sowecouldfullyexploreflooding
adaptationoptionsatthelocallevel.Thechosenset
ofcasestudiesisshowninFigure6.1.
Suburb type Case study Income Community activity Flooding
Innerhistoric StWerburghs,Bristol Lowerincome Active Localisedfluvial
Pre-wargardencity Summertown,OxfordMedium-higher
incomeWeak–emerging Fluvial(gardensonly)
Interwar Botley,OxfordMedium-higher
incomeActive Fluvial(onlowground)
Socialhousing Cheadle,Stockport Lowerincome ActiveLocalisedexposure
(blockedculvert)
Car Bramhall,StockportMedium-higher
incomeActive None
Medium-highdensity UpperHorfield,Bristol Lowerincome Weak-emerging None
Figure 6.1TheSNACCcasestudiesandtheselectioncriteria.
Chapter 6
36
6.2 Determining climate change projections for Bristol, Oxford and Stockport
Foreachofthecasestudies,weneededto
determinethelikelychangestotheclimate.Thiswas
requiredtoquantifytherisksandtoinformtherange
ofadaptationstrategiesstudiedineachsuburb.The
firststageinthisprocesswastodeterminetherisks
foreachcity,thentoidentifyspecificrisksassociated
witheachsuburb,giventhebaselinedataaboutthe
localconditions.
Climatechangeprojectionsforalargenumberof
weathervariablesareavailableat25kmgridsquares
fortheentireUKforthe21stCentury.Asclimate
projectionsaretemporallypresentedinclimate
periods(of30-years),theSNACCprojectchose
tofocusonthe2030sand2050sclimateperiods
tocovertheimpactofclimatechangeforthefirst
halfofthecentury.Toassessprobabilisticriskfor
eachclimateperiodfromemissionsscenarios
andmodellinguncertainty,theranges‘medium
emissions,50%probability–highemissions,90%
probability’areused(Figure6.2).
Ultimately,theinclinationistofocusonthemore
pessimisticprojectionscurrentlyavailablewhichin
theorytendtopresentgreaterrisk,i.e.projections
inthehighemissionsscenarios.Thisdecisionis
attributedtocurrentresearchwhichsuggeststhat
thecurrentglobalCO2emissionstrendisabove
andbeyondthehighemissionsscenariotrajectory
(UKCP09equivalenttotheIntergovernmentalPanel
onClimateChange’sA1FIemissionsscenario)
(Bettsetal.,2009).Furthermoregiventhecurrent
globalpoliticalandeconomictrack,itissuggested
thatthereislittletonochanceofmaintainingarise
inglobalmeansurfacetemperatureatorbelow
2°Candthattheimpactsassociatedwiththis
thresholdarenowconsideredtohavebeenseverely
underestimated(AndersonandBows,2011).
Accordingtothismethodology,thefollowingFigures
(6.3–6.5)presenttheclimatechangeprojectionsfor
theSNACCcasestudycities.
Figure 6.2
Climateprojections
andprobabilistic
rangesusedfor
modellingand
simulationoffuture
impact
37
Summer in Bristol Winter in Bristol
Summer daily temperature increase of up to 4.7°C
• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandinthe
neighbourhood
• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradia-
tionmayaffectbuildingmaterials
• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/Heatriskfromextremeheat
eventsduetoextentofhardsurfacinganddense
configurationofhousing
Summer rainfall decrease of up to 31% (Water stress)
• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadtohose-
pipebansandwaterstress
• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout
• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrinkageof
claysoils:lowtomoderateriskforBristol
Winter rainfall/snow etc increase of up to 22%
• Increasedsurfacefloodingrisk
• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallysettoget
wetterandmoreextremeweathereventsemanating
fromtheAtlantic
• Increasedstorms(wind/drivingrain)
• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-
Bristolcanexperienceseverewinddrivenrainattimes
(56.5–lessthan100litres/m2perspell).Withwinter
precipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmayincrease
• Potentialpluvialfloodrisksfromsurfacerunoffin
theeventthatdrainagenetworkfailsinanextreme
weatherevent
Figure 6.6
Currentandfuture
climaterisksinBristol
Bristol Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%
Summermeantemperature°C 2.0 3.4 2.8 5.2
Summermeandailymaximumtemperature°C 2.6 4.7 3.7 7.3
Wintermeantemperature°C 1.5 2.4 2.1 3.5
Summermeanprecipitation% -10 -31* -19 -43*
Wintermeanprecipitation% 9 22 15 37
SummermeansolarradiationW/m2 6 19 8 24
Oxford Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%
Summermeantemperature°C 2.0 3.8 3.0 5.4
Summermeandailymaximumtemperature°C 2.4 4.4 3.5 7.0
Wintermeantemperature°C 1.6 3.0 2.2 4.4
Summermeanprecipitation% -9 -29* -18 -42*
Wintermeanprecipitation% 9 22 15 36
SummermeansolarradiationW/m2 7 17 9 22
Stockport Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%
Summermeantemperature°C 1.7 2.9 2.4 4.4
Summermeandailymaximumtemperature°C 2.2 4.0 3.1 6.1
Wintermeantemperature°C 1.5 2.5 2.1 4.5
Summermeanprecipitation% -8 -24* -15 -35*
Wintermeanprecipitation% 7 16 11 27
SummermeansolarradiationW/m2 5 15 7 19
Figure 6.3
Climatechange
projectionsforBristol
(DEFRA,2011).Values
fromgridsquare1582.
Figure 6.4
Climatechange
projectionsforOxford
(DEFRA,2011).Values
fromgridsquare1547.
Figure 6.5
Climatechange
projectionsfor
Stockport(DEFRA,
2011).Valuesfrom
gridsquare1274.
*Toreflectprojectedtendencyfordriersummersandtheoverallreductionofprecipitationtheextreme
valuesfollowthevalue‘veryunlikelytobelessthan.’
6.3 The case studies, their current and future climate risks, and proposed adaptations
6.3.1 The Bristol Case Studies
InBristolthecurrentandfutureclimaterisksareas
follows(forthe2030sclimateperiod,covering2020-
2049,underhighgreenhousegasemissions).
38
Inner historic suburb: St Werburghs
StWerburghsisarelativelysmallneighbourhood
approximately1.5kmtothenortheastofBristol
citycentre.Theareaisdominatedbyresidential
development,characterizedasmedium/high
density,terracedhousingbuiltattheturnofthe
twentiethcenturyaspartoftheindustrialisation
ofthecity.Thestreetscapeisdominatedbyhard
paving,andcarsaregenerallydoubleparkedalong
thenarrowVictorianroadstructures.However,the
northernpartofSt.Werburghsaccommodateslarge
areasofallotments,woodsandothergreenspaces,
givingthisarea,knownasAshleyVale,adistinctly
‘rural’cityscape.
Existing green infrastructure
• Limitedprivateoutdoorspace
• Somelowlandcalcareousgrasslandtothenorth
ofStWerburghs,adjacenttothetworailway
linesknownasNarrowaysMillenniumGreen
NatureReserve.TheLandUsePlanhighlights
anareaofapproximately1.6hectares;however
the‘green’doesextendeastoftherailwaylines
towardsRoushamRoad.Theareaofthegreen
mergeswithadjacentlandscapeareasthatare
ofadifferentcharacter,generallybeingwooded
andinaccessibleduetoovergrowthandsteep
gradients
• LynmouthRoadAllotments
• NewRootsAllotments,BetweenBriavelsGrove
andAshleyHill
• StWerburghsCityFarm.Thisislocatedonboth
sidesofWatercressRoadandincludesastable
building,animalenclosures,greenhousesand
smallpondtothesouthoftheroad.Tothenorth
thefarmincludesaprefabricatedofficebuilding,
smallcommunityspaceused,mainlybylocal
children’s’groups,acaféandaplayarea
• AshleyValeAllotments
• Trees(savedfromnetworkrail-tonorthofrailway
line)
• StAndrewsParktothewest
• CommunitygardensatthejunctionofSt
Werburgh’sPark(road)andMinaRoad.Thepark
occupies1.4hainthecentreofthestudyarea
andismadeupofanumberofdistinctzones:
children’splayarea,gatedplayareaandanopen
Parkdominatedbymaturetrees.
Existing blue infrastructure
• Muchofthesouthwesternboundaryisdelineated
byastream,althoughasmallareaoftheparkis
locatedtothewestofthestream
• ThereisasmallstreamtributarytotheriverFrome
andanancientConduitnearJunction3,M32,at
thesouthofthearea.
Figure 6.7StWerburghscasestudyarea.ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUse
ofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.An
OrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
39
Existing community profile
ThecommunityofStWerburghsisrenownedin
Bristolfortheircommitmenttosupportinglocal
ventures,manyofwhichhaveasustainableethos,
suchastheCityFarmandcommunityallotmentsetc.
Thisproactivefeatureofthecommunityenhanced
theinterestbytheresearchgroup,asagoodbench
markforthelimitstowhichadaptationswouldbe
acceptableand/orundertakenbyindividualsandas
acollectivegroupattheneighbourhoodscale.
Future CO2 emissions 2030
ThemeandomesticemissionsrateforSt.
Werburghsundercurrentconditionswascalculated
tobe50kgCO2/m2/yr,thiswasprojectedtodropto
46kgCO2/m2/yrintheperiod2030s.
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
FutureoverheatingriskfortheStWerburghs
neighbourhoodwascalculatedtobeveryhigh.Inthe
casestudyareaitwascalculatedthatalmostallof
thepropertieswithintheneighbourhoodwouldbe
likelytooverheat.
Flooding and extreme weather
• Floodriskidentifiedfromriverflooding
(EnvironmentAgency)-ancientConduitnr.Junc3,
M32andthetributarystreamoftheFrome
• Therearealsoproblemswiththedrainageatthe
junctionofWatercressandMinaRoads,leadingto
pondingandlimitedfloodingduringheavyrainfall
• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/heatriskfromextreme
heateventsduetoextentofhardsurfacingand
denseconfigurationofhousing
• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallyset
togetwetterwithmoreextremeweatherevents
emanatingfromtheAtlantic.
Adaptations
Basedontherisksoutlinedabovethefollowing
adaptationswereproposedforStWerburghs.Also
presentedarethemitigationresponsestoprevent
theimpactoffurtherclimatechange.Thisdoesnot
equatetoanexhaustivelistofpotentialoptions,
butindicatestheoptionsmostappropriateforthe
housingandneighbourhoodtype,basedontherisks
presentedaboveandtheprofileofthecommunity.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaic/Solar
panels
• Growfood
• Externalwallinsulation
• Double/tripleglazing
• Roofinsulation
• Airsourceheatpump
Shading
• Externalsolarshading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Externalshutters
Cooling&ventilation
• Lock-openwindows
• Wallgreenery
Droughtresistance
• Rainwaterharvesting
• Droughtresistant
planting
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Maintainguttering
• Water-proofwindow
seals
• Tricklevents
Flooding
• Flood-proofdoor
• Floodgate
• Airbrickcovers
• Elevateelectrical
sockets
• Floodskirting
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
Flooding
• Flooddefenses
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Figure 6.8
Proposed
adaptationsforthe
innerhistoricsuburb:
StWerburghs
40
Medium/high density suburb: Upper Horfield
UpperHorfieldisarelativelynewlybuiltsuburb.
Thenewhousesreplacedacouncil-builtestateof
semi-detachedhousingandwerebuiltbetween
2006-2010.Thecouncilhouseswhichappearonthe
1940’smapsufferedfrom‘concretecancer’.The
abuttingareaisamixofsocialhousingstockbuilt
approximatelybetweenthe1940sand1950s.Known
locallyastheRowlingGateDevelopment,therebuilt
ShakespeareAvenueisaHomeZonearea(using
landscapingandtrafficcalmingtoshiftthepriority
awayfromthecar).Itisa45acreregeneration
projectproviding400affordablehomesand400
privatehomes.Thedevelopmenthasamixofhouse
typesincludingtownhouses,detachedandsemi-
detachedhouses.Anoutcomeofthepolicydrivefor
moreintensivedevelopmentinurbanextensionsand
inexistingbuiltupareas.Theroadsareconfigured
asa‘homezone’,withlittledelineationbetweenthe
pedestrianwalkwaysandtheroad,andnopainted
roadmarkings.Thereisalsostrategicallyplaced
plantingandavarietyofsurfacefinisheswithinthe
roadtoencouragemorecarefuldriving.
Existing green infrastructure
• BasedbehindtheEdenGroveMethodistChurch
inHorfield,theUpperHorfieldCommunity
Garden,volunteershavedevelopedalargespace
atEdenGroveforthegrowingoffruit,herbsand
vegetablesandaspacefornaturetoflourish
availabletomembersandvolunteerstouse.This
isslightlyoutsideofthecasestudyarea,butwas
thelocationfortheresidentworkshopssowas
includedastheresidentsconsidereditbepartof
theneighbourhood.
• Likewise,ontheoppositesideofFiltonAve,still
adjacenttothenewbuildpropertiesbutoutside
ofthespecificcasestudyarea,isarailway
embankmentwhichhassomescrubcover.This
isclassifiedascontaminatedlandsowillrestrict
optionssuchasallotments,andmayalsobe
subjecttopersonalsafetyrisks,sowouldonlybe
viableforlowmaintenanceandminimalaccess
measures.
• PoetsParkisasmallplayparkwithtwodistinct
areas,onecontainschildren’splayequipment,
andtheotherisagrassedareawithtreesplanted
aroundtheperimeter.
• Themajorityofthepropertieswithinthecase
studyareahaveprivategardensattherear,and
somehaveplantingatthefrontoftheirproperties,
therearealsoraisedbedsandtreesplantedalong
thestreetsaspartofthe‘homezone’.
Existing blue infrastructure
• Thereisnoobviousexistingblueinfrastructure,
howeverthereisawatercapturetankburiedbelow
PoetsPark.
Figure 6.9UpperHorfieldcasestudyarea.MapsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseof
OrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.An
OrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
41
Existing community profile
Theareahasawell-developedcommunitytrust,
whichhasworkedinassociationwithBristolCity
Councilduringtheredevelopmentofthearea.The
mainfocusforthisistheUpperHorfieldCommunity
TrustbasedattheCommunitycentreatthetopof
EdenGrove.Themainfocusofthisgroupishousing
based,andthuspresentsagoodopportunity
toengagewithprivateownersandrenters,the
latterofwhichwouldnotbeabletoadapttheir
housessignificantly,butstillhaveastakeinthe
neighbourhoodadaptations,andsomesmallscale
houseones.Althoughthereisanactivecommunity
withinUpperHorfield,manyoftheresidentsinthe
RowlingGatedevelopmentrentthroughsocial
housinglandlords.Thisofferstheopportunityfor
someinterestingfindingstocontrasttheopinionsof
homeownersandtenants.
Future CO2 emissions 2030
OverallUpperHorfieldwillberesponsibleforlessCO2
emissionsthanaverage(currentmeandomestic
emissionrateof43kgCO2/m2)becauseofthehigher
standardsofinsulationinmostofthehomes.This
willbeparticularlynoticeableinthewinterwhendaily
temperaturemayincreaseupto2.4°Cwhichwill
resultinheatingenergyusedecreasesandtherefore
resultinlessCO2emissions,thecasestudymean
ofCO2predictedtobeomittedbytheperiod2030
wascalculatedas37kgCO2/m2.Thisisapotential
positiveimpactofclimatechangeassumingthatair-
conditioningisnotadopted.
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/heatriskfromextremeheat
eventsduetoextentofhardsurfacinganddense
configurationofhousing
• Highstandardsofinsulationduetonewbuildcould
causeoverheatingifappropriateventilationwas
notinstalled.
Flooding and extreme weather
• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallyset
togetwetterandmoreextremeweatherevents
emanatingfromtheAtlantic.
• Potentialpluvialfloodrisksfromsurfacerunoff
intheeventthatdrainagenetworkfailsinan
extremeweatherevent
• Therearenoreportedfluvialfloodrisks
accordingtotheEnvironmentAgency,however
localresidentsreportedhistoricalpluvialflooding
inthearea.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaic
panels
• Solarpanels
• Growfood
• Externalwallinsulation
• Double/tripleglazing
• Roofinsulation
Shading
• Externalsolarshading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Shadedoutdoorspace
• Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
• Internalthermalmass
• Wallgreenery
• Lock-openwindows
• Whiteroofandwalls
•
Droughtresistance
• Rainwaterharvesting
system
• Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Externalrender
Flooding
• Flood-proofdoor
• Floodgate
• Airbrickcovers
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
• Shadingingreenspace
• Blueinfrastructure
• Drought-resistanttrees
Flooding
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Figure 6.10
Proposedadaptations
forthemedium/high
densitysuburb:Upper
Horfield
42
6.3.2 The Oxford Case Studies
InOxfordthecurrentandfutureclimaterisksareas
follows(forthe2030sclimateperiod,covering2020-
2049,underhighgreenhousegasemissions).
Summer in Oxford Winter in Oxford
Summer mean daily maximum temperature increase:
very unlikely to be greater than 4.4°C
• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandinthe
neighbourhood
• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradia-
tionmayaffectbuildingmaterials
Summer rainfall reduction: very unlikely to be less than
29% (Water stress)
• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadto
hosepipebansandwaterstress.
• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout.
• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrinkageof
claysoils:highriskforOxford
Winter rainfall/snow etc. increase: very unlikely to be
greater than 22%
• Increasedsurfacefloodingrisk
Increased storms (wind/driving rain)
• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-
Oxfordcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainat
times(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).With
winterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay
increase.
Winter mean daily maximum temperature increase:
very unlikely to be greater than 2.6°C
Figure 6.11 CurrentandfutureclimaterisksinOxford
43
Interwar period suburb: Botley, West Oxford
Botley,inWestOxford,wasbuiltasamedium
density,homogeneousspeculativesuburb.Although
therearepartsof‘OldBotley’thatdatebacktothe
16thCentury,theareachosenforthefieldworkwas
inwhatisknownlocallyas‘NewBotley’.Itislocated
approximatelyamilewestofOxford,andthehousing
stockistypicallysemi-detachedbrickandtilebuilt
propertiesfrom1930-1939.
Existing green infrastructure
Theexistinggreeninfrastructureintheimmediate
casestudyareaismadeupoflargeprivatefront
andbackgardens,typicalofpropertiesbuiltinthis
era.Althoughsignificantly,mostoftheproperties
inthecasestudyareahaveturnedatleastpart
oftheirfrontlawnovertoconcreteorotherhard
standingsurfaces.Thereargardensarelargelyall
grassandtreecovered,thegardensareonaverage
approximately500m2.
AtthecentreofStPaul’screscentisalargearea
ofgrassedopenspace,whichisusedasapublic
amenitybytheinhabitantsofthesurrounding
propertiesforrecreationalpurposesi.e.toplay
sports,exercisedogsandhavepicnics.Thisareahad
beenidentifiedforpotentialallotments,butthiswas
stronglycontestedbythelocalresidents,astheyfelt
thiswouldprivatizetheirpublicamenityspace.There
isalsoasmallcopseoftreestothesouthwestofthe
areaknownasHutchcombsCopse.
Existing blue infrastructure
Asmallstreamflowstothesouthwestofthe
areaattherearofHutchcombRoad,thisisonly
abovegroundforapproximately10-20mbefore
re-submerging.Thereisalsoasmallstreamtothe
northwestofthearea,atthetopofOwlingtonClose
whichflowsabovegroundforapproximately20m
beforere-submerging.Thelargestbodyofwater
intheareaistheHinkseyStream,atributaryofthe
Thames,whichruns500mtotheeastofthecase
studyareaonthefarsideoftheA34trunkroad.
Existing community profile
HousinginBotleyislargelyprivatelyowned,but
thereisamarketforprivaterentalsforyoung
professionals.Theareaisrelativelyaffluent,witha
largeproportionofprofessionalworkersandyoung
families.Botleyhassomeevidenceofcommunity
activism,withthepresenceofLowCarbon
WestOxfordandtheWestOxfordCommunity
Association.
Future CO2 emissions 2030
Themeandomesticemissionrateundercurrent
conditionswascalculatedtobe65kgCO2/m2/yr,
thiswasprojectedtodropto55kgCO2/m2/yrinthe
period2030s.
Figure 6.12TheBotleyCaseStudyArea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
44
Ofthe362propertiesassessedwithcurrent
conditions,only39wouldbebelowaverageCO2
emissions,thisgrewto231intheperiod2030s
assumingnomechanicalcoolingwasadopted.
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
RiskofoverheatinginBotley(Oxfordingeneral)isthe
highestforallSNACCcasestudyneighbourhoods.
Thisisparticularlyattributedtotheexistingwarmer
climatethesoutheastexperiences.Alargemajority
ofthehomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighriskof
overheatingat50%probabilityandallhomeswere
calculatedtohaveahighriskofoverheatingat90%
probability.
Flooding and extreme weather
Botleyhasasignificantfloodriskasidentifiedby
theEnvironmentAgency.TheriskisfromtheRiver
Thamesanditstributarystreamsinthearea.Despite
theneighbourhoodriskofflooding,theresidents
samplewasdrawnfromagroupofaddresseswith
limitedfloodrisk,duetotheirlocationatthetop
ofthehill.Forthelimitednumberofresidentsin
thesamplefromthebottomofthehill,theyhad
experiencedfluvialfloodingintheirproperties.
Inadditionhighertemperaturesandmoreexposure
toUVradiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials
Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-
Oxfordcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainat
times(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).With
winterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay
increase.
Adaptations
ProposedadaptationsforBotleyareshowninfigure
6.3.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaic
panels
• Solarpanels
• Growfood
• Externalwall
insulation
• Double/triple
glazing
• Roofinsulation
• Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Shadedoutdoorspace
• Extendeaves
• Externalsolarshading
Cooling&ventilation
• Whiteroofandwalls
• Wallgreenery
• Greenroof
Droughtresistance
• Rainwaterharvesting
system
• Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Externalrender
• Tricklevents
Flooding
• Replacenon-porous
driveways
• Flood-proofdoor
• Floodgate
• Airbrickcovers
• Elevateelectricalsockets
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
• Shadingingreen
space
• Blueinfrastructure
• Communitycoolroom
Flooding
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
• Allotments
Figure 6.13Proposedadaptationsfortheinterwarperiodsuburb:Botley,WestOxford.
45
Pre-War ‘garden city’ type suburb: Summertown, North Oxford
Summertownischaracterisedbymedium-large
semisanddetachedhomeswithlargegardens.Of
allthecasestudyareas,thiswastheonewiththe
greatestvariationinthehousingstockformand
construction.Theareaisapproximately2.5miles
northofthecentreofOxford,andhassomemixed
usewithbusinessesandshopsincloseproximity
tothehouses.Italsohasgoodtransportlinksto
thecitycentre,withboththeringroadlinkingtothe
motorwaynetworksandamainarterialroutetothe
citycentrenearby.
Existing green infrastructure
Althoughthereislimitedpublicopengreen
infrastructureinSunnymead,withtheexception
ofSummerfieldsSchooltothesouthofthearea,
theareaisverygreen.Thisislargelyduetomature
streetplanting,extensivegrassedfrontagesto
shopsandbusinessesandlargematureprivate
gardenstotherearoftheproperties.Atthefrontof
thepropertiesmanyofthefrontgardenshavebeen
replacedbyhardstandingtoaccommodatecars,
however,therearetreesandbushesaroundthe
perimeterofmostofthesegardens.
Existing blue infrastructure
SunnymeadislocatedontheperimeteroftheRiver
Cherwellfloodriskzonewhichrunstotheeastof
thecasestudyarea.Therearealsoafewprivate
swimmingpoolsandpondswithintheperimeterof
someofthepropertiesinthecasestudyarea.
Existing community profile
Theareaisveryaffluentwithalargeproportionof
retiredprofessionalslivinginlargefamilyhomes.
Althoughsomeyoungerfamilieswererepresented
inourcasestudygroup.Thereisevidenceof
communityactivismincludingthepresenceof‘Low
CarbonNorthOxford’.
Future CO2 emissions 2030
Themeandomesticemissionrateinthecasestudy
areaareprojectedtodropfrom:52kgCO2/m2/yrto
43kgCO2/m2/yrfromthepresenttimetotheperiod
2030s.Incomparisontotheothertypologies,this
typehaverelativelylowcarbondioxideemissions,
thisisduetothehouseconfigurationexisting
thermalproperties.Itisprojectedintheperiod2030
thatafurther96homesinthecasestudyareawill
havecarbondioxideemissionsbelowaverage.
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
RiskofoverheatinginSummertown(Oxfordin
general)isalsohigherthanmostcasestudies.
Almosthalfofthehomeswerecalculatedtohave
ahighriskofoverheatingat50%probabilityand
Figure 6.14Summertowncasestudyarea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
46
allhomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighriskof
overheatingat90%probability.
Thereisanincreasedriskofoverheatingathome
andintheneighbourhood.Inadditiontoareduction
inrainfallwhichwillcausewaterstressandmaylead
tohosepipebansandwaterstress.
Inoxfordthereisahighriskofthechangingrainfall
patternscausingshrinkageofclaysoilsandrelated
buildingsubsidence.
Flooding and extreme weather
Riverfloodingwillincreaseduringthewintermonths
duetowettergroundconditionsandanincreasein
dailyrainfall.Theproximityoftheareatotheriver
Cherwellfloodzone,inadditiontothedenseurban
configurationoftheneighbourhoodandfrequency
offrontgardensturnedovertohardstandingmay
increasethelocalisedfloodriskfrombothfluvial
(river)andpluvial(surface)flooding.
HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUV
radiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials.Older
buildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-Oxford
canexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainattimes
(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).Withwinter
precipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay
increase.
Adaptations
ProposedadaptationsforSummertownareshownin
figure6.15.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaicpanels
• Solarpanels
• Growfood
• Externalwallinsulation
• Double/tripleglazing
• Roofinsulation
• Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Shadedoutdoorspace
• Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
• Internalthermalmass
• Whiteroofandwalls
• Lock-openwindows
• Greenroof
Droughtresistance
• Underpinhouse
• Rainwaterharvesting
system
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Externalrender
• Tricklevents
Flooding
• Replacenon-porous
driveways
• Flood-proofdoor
• Floodgate
• Airbrickcovers
• Elevateelectricalsockets
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
• Shadingingreenspace
• Blueinfrastructure
• Communitycoolroom
• Drought-resistanttrees
Flooding
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
• Flooddefences
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
• Allotments
Figure 6.15 ProposedadaptationsforthePre-War‘gardencity’typesuburb:Summertown,NorthOxford
47
6.3.3 Stockport Case Studies
InStockportthecurrentandfuture climate risks are
as follows (for the 2030s climate period, covering
2020-2049, under high greenhouse gas emissions).
Summer in Stockport Winter in Stockport
Summer mean daily maximum temperature increase: very unlikely to be greater than 4.0°C
• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandintheneighbourhood
• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials
Summer rainfall reduction: very unlikely to be less than 24% (Water stress)
• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadtohosepipebansandwaterstress.
• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout.• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrink-ageofclaysoils:moderate/lowriskforStockport
Winter rainfall/snow etc. increase: very unlikely to be greater than 16%
• Increasedsurfacefloodingrisk
Increased storms (wind/driving rain)
• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddam-age-Stockportcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainattimes(between33and56.5litres/m2perspell).Withwinterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmayincrease.
Winter mean daily maximum temperature in-crease: very unlikely to be greater than 2.5°C
Figure 6.16 CurrentandfutureclimaterisksinStockport.
48
Social Housing suburb: Cheadle, Stockport
ThiscasestudyisintheareaofAdswoodRoad,
CheadleHulme,Cheadle,Stockport.Theproperties
inthecasestudyareaaremainlyterracedand
semi-detachedhousesbuiltinthe1950soutof
renderedbrickandtile.Thehousingisrelativelylow
density,withfrontgardensandalargereargardens.
Someofthepreviouslyownedcouncilproperties
arenowownedprivately.However,thegroupwhich
representedtheareaintheworkshopswasamix
ofhomeownersandsocialhousingtenants.The
areawasselectedduetoitsexposuretoprevious
floodinganditsrelativelylessaffluentoccupants.
Thefloodingwhichaffected11propertieswithin
thecasestudyareawascausedbyablockedculvert
whichfloodedthegroundfloorsandgardensofthe
affectedhomes.Thereisalsosomeriskofpluvial
floodingaccordingtotheenvironmentagency,
stemmingfromMickerBrooktothesouthofthesite.
Theareaisborderedbytrainlinestotheeastand
southeast,andislocatedapproximatelytwomiles
southwestofStockportcentre.
Existing green infrastructure
Theexistinggreeninfrastructurewithinthe
immediateneighbourhoodofthecasestudyarea
includeslargereargardenswithmaturetreesand
frontgardens,mostofwhicharepartlypavedto
accommodatecars,withtheremainderbeing
grassed.Thereisapocketparklocatedonthecorner
ofKentAvenueandLarkhilllane.Thereisalsoalarge
areaofopengrasslandattherearofDorsetAvenue,
andborderingthemainlinerailwayline.
Existing blue infrastructure
MickerbrookwhichisatributarytotheRiverMersey,
andispronetoflooding,islocatedtothesouthwest
ofthecasestudyarea,thereisalsoaculverttothe
northwestofthearea.
Existing community profile
TheCheadlecasestudyareawasrepresentativeofa
lessaffluentarea,withmostresidentslivingonlower
incomes.Theareaisborderedbyaffluentareasto
thenorthandwest,andlessaffluentareastothe
southandeast.
Future CO2 emissions 2030
Theexistingmeandomesticemissionrateforthe
Cheadleneighbourhoodwas56kgCO2/m2/yrthis
wasprojectedtofallto48kgCO2/m2/yrbytheperiod
2030.
Figure 6.17TheCheadlecasestudyarea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
49
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
RiskofoverheatinginCheadle(Stockportingeneral)
isthelowestofallSNACCcasestudies.Alittleover
halfofthehomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighrisk
ofoverheatingat90%probabilityandnoneat50%
probability.
Flooding and extreme weather
Stockportispredictedtoexperienceconsiderable
increasesinwinterprecipitation(upto16%).Thiswill
causefluvialfloodrisk.TheCheadlecasestudyarea
isalreadylocatedontheEnvironmentAgencyflood
riskmap,andthereforetheriskoffloodingfrom
MickerBrookispredictedtoincrease.
Adaptations
ProposedadaptationsforStockportareshownin
figure6.18.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaic
panels
• Solarpanels
• Growfood
• Externalwall
insulation
• Double/triple
glazing
• Roofinsulation
• Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
• Wallgreenery
• Greenroof
• Shadedoutdoor
space
• Externalsolar
shading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
• Lock-open
windows
• Internalthermal
mass
• Whiteroofandwalls
Droughtresistance
• Underpinhouse
• Waterbutt
• Rainwaterharvesting
system
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Externalrender
• Tricklevents
Flooding
• Flood-proofdoor
• Floodgate
• Replacenon-porous
driveways
• Airbrickcovers
• Elevateelectricalsockets
• Replaceinternalflooring
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
• Blueinfrastructure
• Shadingingreen
space
• Communitycool
room
Flooding
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
• Flooddefences
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
• Allotments
Figure 6.18
Proposedadaptations
fortheSocialHousing
suburb:Cheadle,
Stockport
50
Car Suburb: Bramhall, Stockport
Bramhalltypifiedthelowdensity,car-oriented,
developer-ledneighbourhoodwithsomeculs-de-
sac.Builtinthelate1970s,thecasestudyareais
knownlocallyas‘LittleAustralia’,duetothestreets
beingnamedafterAustraliancities.Thestreets
arewidewithstreettrees,andthebuildingsand
surroundingareasarerelativelylowdensity.The
boundaryofthecasestudyareaisborderedby
arailwaylinelinkingtoManchesterPiccadillyvia
Stockporttothenorthandsewageworkstothe
southeast.Thesurroundingstreetshadproperties
builtinthepre-warperiodintheartsandcrafts
style.Alargerecreationgroundislocatedonthe
westernboundaryoftheareawithfootballpitches
andachildren’splaypark,alargecommunityhall
(BramhallVillageClub),wasalsolocatedatthispoint.
Bramhallitselfliesapproximatelythreemilessouth
westofStockportandisanaffluentareapopularwith
olderfamiliesandretiredpeoplelivinginlargefamily
homes.
Existing green infrastructure
Thecasestudyareahadsignificantamountsof
greencoveragebothwithintheboundariesofthe
propertiesintheformofmaturegardens,andalong
theroadwithstreettrees.Tothenortheastofthe
arealiesBramhallgolfcourse,withseveralacresof
greens,andonthewesternboundaryofthearea
istherecreationgroundwithtwolargefootball
pitchesandtreesaroundthechildren’splayground
perimeter.
Existing blue infrastructure
Thereareseveralstreamsandpondsonthe
farmlandtothesoutheastofthearea.Thereisalso
reportedlysomepondingundertheproperties,
andconsequentlysomeofthemarealreadybuilt
onfloatingconcretefoundations.Thereisalsoa
minorstreamtothenorthandnortheastofthe
casearea,however,therailwaylineiselevatedona
bankbetweenthestreamandthehousesproviding
protectionagainstflooding.
Existing community profile
Bramhallishometomainlywealthyworking
familieswithmortgages.Thesearemostlyaffluent
families,withschoolagechildren,enjoyingagood
lifestyle.Employmentislargelyinseniormanagerial
andprofessionaloccupations,andmanyofthe
householdsinthistypehavebothadultsworking.Car
ownershipishigh,withtwoormorecarscommon.
Withinthecasestudyarea,theworkshopwas
attendedbyresidentswhofittedthisdescription
aswellasalargeproportionofretiredprofessionals
withgrownupfamilies.Theareaisknowntohavea
neighbourhoodwatchgroupbuttherearefewother
communitygroups,unliketheareasfoundinBristol
andOxford.
Figure 6.19Bramhallcasestudyarea(Source:StockportMetropolitanBoroughCouncil:OSMastermap)
Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
51
Future CO2 emissions 2030
Theexistingmeandomesticemissionrateinthe
BramhallcasestudyforCO2releasewas75kgCO
2/
m2/yrthiswasprojectedtofallto62kgCO2/m2/yr
bytheperiod2030.Despitethedrop,whichcanbe
attributedtoareductioninspaceheatingdemand
by2030s,thehousingtype(andlocation)performed
worsethanallothertypes.
Climate change induced risk
Risk of overheating
RiskofoverheatinginBramhall(Stockportingeneral)
islowerthanmostcasestudyneighbourhoods.
Roughlythree-quartersofthehomeswere
calculatedtohaveahighriskofoverheatingat90%.
InBramhalltheaveragesummermaximum
temperatureintheperiod2030sisprojectedto
increaseby2.5°C.Inadditiontothistherewillbe
increasedincidenceofheatwaveswhichwillresultin
ahighlikelihoodofpropertiesandneighbourhoods
overheating:(12%).Thereisalsopredictedtobean
increaseinsolarradiationwithpeaksinAugustwhich
willimpactuponthebuiltfabricoftheproperties.
Flooding and extreme weather
Theriskoffluvialfloodingisnotsignificantinthis
areaofBramhall.However,asaresultofincreased
winterprecipitationofupto15%,whichwillinpart
fallindeluges,thereisaprobabilityofsomepluvial
flooding.Thiswillbeexacerbatedbytheprevalence
ofhardpavedfrontgardens,andtheexisting
saturationofthegroundinparts,duetohighwater
table.Theprojectedsummerdecreaseinrainfallwill
causedroughtconditionswhichwillresultinwater
stress.
Adaptations
ProposedadaptationsforBramhallareshownin
figure6.20.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
• Photovoltaic
panels
• Solarpanels
• Growfood
• Externalwallinsulation
• Double/tripleglazing
• Roofinsulation
Shading
• Externalsolarshading
• Internalshutters
• Solarfilm
• Shadedoutdoorspace
• Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
• Internalthermalmass
• Whiteroofandwalls
• Wallgreenery
• Greenroof
• Lock-open
windows
Droughtresistance
• Rainwaterharvesting
system
• Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
• Externalrender
• Re-point
brickwork
• Woodprotectors
• Tricklevents
• Maintainguttering
Flooding
• Replacenon-porous
driveways
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
• Streettrees
• Shadingingreenspace
• Blueinfrastructure
• Communitycool
room
Flooding
• Reconfigurestreet
drainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
• Energyefficientstreet
lighting
• Allotments
Figure 6.20
Proposedadaptations
fortheCarSuburb:
Bramhall,Stockport
52
53
The potential for overheating in suburbs and effective adaptation packages
Thischapterpresentstheoverheatingpotential
andtheeffectiveadaptationoptionsandpackages
forthesixcasestudyneighbourhoods.Wechose
tofocusonoverheatinggiventhepolicyinterest,
thecurrentneedforevidence,andthepotential
unintendedconsequencesthatsomecurrent
andfuturepolicymeasurescouldhaveonfuture
overheatinginEnglishhomes.Giventhecurrent
evidencethatthefutureclimateisprojectedto
warm,understandingtheimplicationsthismay
haveonthethermalconditionsinhomesand
neighbourhoodsisessentialtomeettheUK
government’scarbonreductiongoals,toretaina
standardofthermalcomfortandtoreducetherisk
tolivesthatheatwaveshavehistoricallyimposed.
Beforeadaptationoptionsaremodelledforthe
individualneighbourhoods,theoverheatingpotential
ofeachneighbourhoodisassessedandvisualised.
TheDECoRuM-Adaptsimulationindicatesthat
thereareanumberofhomecharacteristicindicators
thatleadtooverheatingandcansometimesbea
complexarrangementofcharacteristicsforeach
home.Theoverarchingconcepttounderstanding
theproblemofoverheatingindwellings,however,
canbesummedupasmanagementofgains(internal
andsolar)andheattransfer.Thecharacteristicsthat
havebeenfoundtocontributetoahigherlikelihood
ofoverheatingare:
Built form:
• Typeofhome:e.g.,amid-terracehomewill
overheatbeforeanendofterrace(assumingall
othercharacteristicsareassimilaraspossible
betweenthetwo)
• Numberofstories:homeswithfewerstoriestend
tooverheatbeforethosewithmore,particularly
flats
• Overallform:beinginacompactform(asopposed
tohavingagreaterareaofexposedsides)
• Extentofglazing:havingagreaterglazingareavs.
lessglazingarea(solargainwasfoundtohavea
significantimpactoninternalheatgain)
• Locationofglazing:thepresenceofskylights(can
haveagreateroverheatingpotentialthanlarger
non-roofglazedareas)
Age dependent characteristics and management
of gains:
• Olderhomesareassumedtohavelessorno
insulationandorcontrolsonequipmentsuchas
thehotwatertankandprimarypipeworkleadingto
highinternalgainsandoverheatingasaresult.
• Newerhomesareassumedtohavelowerair
permeabilityandhigherinsulationstandardson
boththesystemsandfabricleadingtooverheating
frombothinternalandsolargains.According
tothethermalsimulationofinsulationvalues
(understoodassimplyu-values),DECoRuM-Adapt
projectsoverheatingasaresultofhigherfabric
insulation.
• Orientation:eastandwestfacinghomesarefound
toovereattoagreaterdegreethanhomesthat
aresouthornorthfacing.
• Fromaneighbourhoodperspective,homeson
exposedstreets(lackoffoliagecover)havea
higherlikelihoodofoverheating.
From these findings the development of adaptation
options follows three key principles:
• Reduceexternaltemperaturesbymanagingthe
microclimate(non-fabricchanges)
• Designtoexcludeorminimisetheeffectofdirect
orindirectsolarradiationintothehome(fabric
changes)
• Limitorcontrolheatwithinthebuilding(e.g.
reducedinternalgainsormanageheatwithmass),
canincludeventilation.
Thethermaladaptationoptionswhichweretested
fortheneighbourhoodsinDECoRuM-Adaptare
listedinFigure7.1.Someadaptationoptionswere
presentedtothestakeholdersinvariousforms,e.g.
externalshadingwaspresentedaslouvers,awnings,
extendedeaves,treecover,etc.Furtheradaptation
optionsincludinghighalbedoexternalwallandroof
surfacesandadditionofthermalmassweretestedin
individualdetailedhomesimulations.
Chapter 7
54
Package 1: Fabric (deals with solar gain and thermal
conductivity)Purpose A M
Wallinsulation(CavitywallfilledtowholewallU-valueof
0.52W/m2K,Solidwallexternallyinsulatedto0.3W/m2K)
(EST,2012)
ImprovedU-values A M
Roofinsulation(U-value0.2–0.16W/m2K)(EST,2012) ImprovedU-values A M
Floorinsulation(U-value0.25W/m2K)(EST,2012) ImprovedU-values A M
Externalshadingofglazing(user-controlled–notmod-
elledtobeinplaceduringheatingseason)Reducesolargainsinthehome A
Glazingupgrade(low-esoftcoatdoubleglazing–U-
value1.8W/m2K,Solartransmittance50%)inplaceof
allexistingsingleglazingexceptnorthfacing(includes
draughtsealing)
ImprovedU-valuesandreductionofsolar
gainsinthehomeA M
Low-esolarfilm(Solartransmittance50%overexisting
doubleglazing,allbutnorthfacing)Reducesolargainsinthehome A
Package 2: Fabric + Energy efficiency (deals with internal heat gain)
Package1+thefollowing:
Boilerupgrade Reduceenergyuse M
Hotwatertankinsulation(80mmjacket) Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M
Improvedheatingcontrols:Hotwatertanktemperature
controlandroomthermostatsReduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M
Primarypipeworkinsulation Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M
Energyefficientlighting(LED) Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M
Package 3: Fabric + Energy efficiency + Solar energy systems (adaptation to increased solar irradiation)
Package1+Package2+thefollowing:
SolarPhotovoltaic Reduceenergyuse M
Solarhotwater(evacuatedtube) Reduceenergyuse M
Figure 7.1Adaptationoptionsgroupedintocompoundingpackages
Note:allpackagesincludeamoderatelevelofnaturalventilationasitisassumedthatthisuserbehaviourisalreadyinwide
use.Thefarrightcolumnslabelled‘A’and‘M’indicatetheoption’sinfluenceoveradaptationormitigationorboth.Though
mitigationisconsideredanadaptation,theseindicatorsareusedasshorthand,i.e.mitigationonlyreducesenergyuseand
adaptationonlyreducesoverheatingpotential.
Figure7.2showstheCO2reductionspercasestudy
neighbourhoodasanimpactof1)climatechangeat
2050highemissions,90%probabilityand2)afterthe
adaptationpackageshavebeenappliedat2050high
emissions.90%probability.
55
Thefollowingsubsectionsdividetheoverheating
andadaptationfindingsfortheneighbourhoodsper
city.AsDECoRuM-Adaptsimulatesresultsusing
monthlydata,theuseornon-useofventilation
mustbesimulatedseparately.Therefore,theinitial
overheatingmapsindicateoverheatingina‘sealed’
state;theairpermeabilityofthehomeprovides
theonlynaturalairflowinandoutofthehome.
Thisisconsideredusefulasanexamplewherethe
occupantisawayfromthehomeduringthedayand
arrivestoanoverheatedhomethathasnotbeen
ventilated.Naturalventilationisappliedalongside,
asanindividualmeasure,andwiththeadaptation
packages.Asexplainedinsection6.1,theprojection
withthegreatestriskisofinterestasadaptations
willbeeffectiveinprojectionswithlessrisk.Forthis
reasontheadaptationpackagesareappliedtothe
neighbourhoodsduringthe2050sclimateperiodat
highemissions,90%probability.
7.1 Bristol
Theprobabilisticoverheatingresultsofthecase
studyneighbourhoodsofBristol,St.Werburghsand
UpperHorfieldareshowninfigures7.3and7.4
Figure 7.2MeanneighbourhoodCO2emissionschangeasanimpactofclimatechangeandadaptations
56
Figure 7.3ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforSt.Werburghsat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,
mediumtohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Models
reproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,Bristoland
BristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Figure 7.4 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforUpperHorfieldat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,
mediumtohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Models
reproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,Bristoland
BristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
57
Figure 7.5 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinSt.Werburghs.Note:packages2and
3donotdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:
Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefor
theUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright
2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Figure 7.6 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinUpperHorfield.Note:packages2and
3donotdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:
Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefor
theUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncilMap©CrownCopyright/databaseright
2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
AsthemapsinFigures7.3and7.4indicatethere
isa71-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforSt.
Werburghsanda6-100%highlikelihoodforUpper
Horfieldduringthe2050sclimateperiod.Greater
overheatingpotentialinSt.Werburghscanbe
attributedtothecombinationofgreatercompact
urbanform(withlessexposedexternalwallarea),
greaterexposuretosolarradiation(lesstreecover)
andhigherinternalheatgains.St.Werburghsalso
hasagreaternumberofhomeswithfullyexposed
skylights.Toadaptthehomesforbothmitigation
offurtherclimatechangeandmitigationof
overheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1
areappliedtotheneighbourhoods.Theresultsare
showninFigures7.5and7.6.
Theadaptationpackagesaresuccessfulinmitigating
potentialoverheatingintheneighbourhoods.The
homesinSt.Werburghsthatremainoverheated
aftertheapplicationofpackage2&3allhave
convertedloftswithmultiplelargeskylights.These
typesofwindowscanbedifficulttoshadeandcause
thehometobevulnerabletosolargain.Thehomes
thatremainoverheatedinUpperHorfieldonthe
otherhandaremostnoticeablytheflatsandother
singlestorydwellingswithlesseffectiveventilation
capacity.
58
7.2 Oxford
Theprobabilisticoverheatingresultsofthecase
studyneighbourhoodsofOxford,Botleyand
SummertownareshowninFigures7.7and7.8.
Figure 7.7 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforBotleyat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,mediumtohigh
emissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/
databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Figure 7.8 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforSummertownat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium
tohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©Crown
Copyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
59
AsthemapsinFigures7.7and7.8indicatethereis
a98-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforBotley
andan88-100%highlikelihoodforSummertown
duringthe2050sclimateperiod.Theselikelihoods
arehigherthanthatofBristolduetothehigher
meansummertemperatures(currentandfuture).
GreateroverheatingpotentialinBotleycanbe
attributedtothehomeshavingalargerwindowto
exposedwallratio.Thisrelationshipinolderhomes
indicatesmorepotentialforsolargaintoenterthe
homeascomparedtothehome’soverallwallarea
(nottransferringdirectsolargainintothehome).
Summertownasaneighbourhoodrepresentsthe
mostdiverseofthecasestudyneighbourhoodsin
termsofageandbuiltformvariation.Thisvariation
canclearlybeseenintheoverheatingpotential
duringthe2030smediumemissions,50%percentile
(Figure7.8)wherethereishigherproportionof
homesgroupedtogetherintheupperrightsideof
theimage.Thesehomeshaveahighlikelihoodof
overheatingandareallterracedhousingwhereas
muchoftherestoftheneighbourhoodaredetached
andsemi-detached.Toadaptthehomesforboth
mitigationoffurtherclimatechangeandmitigation
ofoverheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1
areappliedtotheneighbourhoods.Theresultsare
showninFigures7.9and7.10.
Figure 7.9 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinBotley.Note:packages2and3donot
differinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,
2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
Figure 7.10 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinSummertown.Note:packages2and
3donotdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:
Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/
EDINAsuppliedservice.
Theadaptationpackagesareunsuccessful
inmitigatingpotentialoverheatinginthe
neighbourhoods.Itisimportanttonotehowever
thatan‘extremecase’projectionisbeingsimulated.
Theriskis‘veryunlikelytobegreaterthan’the
resultsbeingpresented,howeveradditionaladaptive
solutionsmaybenecessary.Thismightinclude
activecoolingwithanair-sourceheatpumpdriven
byphotovoltaicpanels.Whenthesimulationis
expandedtoviewtheprobabilisticrangeresults
forthe2050sclimateperiodthereisevidencethat
theadaptationpackageswillprovideoverheating
mitigationfortheneighbourhoodsinOxfordunder
lessextremeconditions(Figure7.11).
60
7.3 Stockport
Theprobabilisticoverheatingresultsofthecase
studyneighbourhoodsofStockport,Bramhalland
CheadleareshowninFigures7.12and7.13.
Figure 7.12 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforBramhallat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium
tohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©Crown
Copyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Oxford 2050s Baseline Package 1 Package 2 & 3
Medium High Medium High Medium High
Probability 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90%
Botley 98% 100% 99% 100% 3% 19% 3% 100% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Summertown 88% 100% 98% 100% 0% 5% 1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Figure 7.11 Probabilisticadaptationoverheatingresultsforthe2050sinOxford
61
Figure 7.13 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforCheadleat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium
tohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©Crown
Copyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.
Asthemapsinfigure7.12and7.13indicatethereis
a1-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforBramhall
anda0-100%highlikelihoodforCheadleduringthe
2050sclimateperiod.Toadaptthehomesforboth
mitigationoffurtherclimatechangeandmitigation
ofoverheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1
areappliedtotheneighbourhoods.Theresultsare
showninFigures7.14and7.15.
Figure 7.14 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinBramhall.Note:packages2and3do
notdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,
2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
62
Figure 7.15 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinCheadle.Note:packages2and3do
notdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,
2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA
suppliedservice.
Theadaptationpackagesareextremelysuccessful
inmitigatingpotentialoverheatinginthe
neighbourhoods.Infact,beforeanyadaptation
packagesareapplied,simplyhavingasafeand
effectiveventilationstrategyforthehomesin
Stockportappearstomitigatetheoverheating
probleminamajorityofthehomesbythe2050s.
Figure7.16liststheimpactofthepackageswith
andwithoutventilation.Therelativelylowerclimate
changeimpactinStockportprovidesamajorityof
thehomesintheneighbourhoodswiththeunique
advantageofadaptingwithoutdaytimeventilation.
Thiscanofcoursechangeifairtightnessisincreased.
7.4 Conclusion
Thetestingphaseoftheprojecthasindicatedthat
thereareanumberofeffectiveadaptationoptions.
Themosttechnicallyeffectiveadaptiveapproachis
toreducesolarradiationintothehomeandontothe
fabricofthehome.Thiscanbedoneinanumberof
waysondifferentscales,e.g.plantingoftreesata
neighbourhoodscaletoinstallingexternalshading
devicesonanindividualhomebasis.
Asisseenthroughtheeffectivepackagingofboth,
adaptationandmitigationofclimatechangein
suburbanhomesshouldbeconsideredtogether
asmanymeasurestoaddresstheseconcernsare
mutuallybeneficial.AlthoughtheUKisprojected
toremainaheatingdominatedclimate,wherein
improvingthethermalpropertiesofbuildingfabric
willbeessential,otheradaptivemeasurestoreduce
theriskoffutureoverheatingonahouselevelare
urgentlyneeded.Thereforeafabric-basedfuture
proofingapproachcomprisingmitigationand
adaptationmeasures(asdemonstratedabove
forexample)isrecommendedforlarge-scale
refurbishmentofexistinghousing.
Stockport 2050
High 90%Baseline Package 1 Package 2 & 3
Sealed Ventilated Sealed Ventilated Sealed Ventilated
Bramhall 100% 11% 100% 0% 2% 0%
Cheadle 100% 3% 95% 0% 4% 0%
Figure 7.16 Probabilisticadaptationoverheatingresultsforthe2050sinStockport
63
Internalgainsaside,newerhomes,i.e.dwellings
builttomeetimprovedfabricregulations,are
moresensitivetopotentialoverheatingthanolder
homes.Thisislikelytobethegreatestconflictas
theUKstrivestomeetGovernmentCO2targets
byretrofittingandbuildingnewhomesthatare
only,atbest,climaticallyresponsivetothecurrent
climate.AsthecurrentUKBuildingRegulationsand
retrofittingprogrammesaremainlyconcernedwith
heatretention(andCO2reduction),itisessential
thatfuturerevisionstoBuildingRegulationsand
otherpolicymeasurestackletherisksof,and
potentialforadaptingto,climatechangedriven
overheatingtoensureacomfortableenvironment
foroccupants.
64
65
Residents responses to adapting their suburbs
8.1 Introduction
ThisChapterpresentsthefindingsfromthe
residents’workshopsinthesixcasestudysuburbs.
Attheworkshopswediscussed:
• residents’experiencesofdifferentweatherevents
(heatwaves,floods,storms);
• theirattitudestowardsclimatechange;
• theirfamiliaritywiththerangeofadaptation
measuresthatcouldbeeffectiveintheir
neighbourhood(atthehome,gardenand
neighbourhoodscales);
• whethertheyhave(orwouldconsider)
implementingthesemeasurestogetherwiththeir
reasonsfordoingso,and;
• iftheywouldnotconsiderimplementingthe
measures,thenwhatarethekeybarriersto
adoptingthemandwhatincentivesmightenhance
theirattractiveness.
Thefindingsarepresentedbelow.
8.2 How do residents perceive climate change and its impacts?
Someresidentsdisputedtheclimatechange
projectionsbasedonthesciencebehindthe
projectionsand/ortheirpersonalexperienceof
weatherovertheirlifetime.Ingeneralthethreats
fromstormierwintersandhotterdriersummers
didnotseemtoraisemuchconcernforresidents.
Theyconsideredoverheatingalow-urgency,
non-immediatethreatthatcouldbeaddressed
reactivelywhenitbecameproblematic.Flooding
wasgenerallynotconsideredathreat(eveninareas
whichhadexperiencednearbyflooding).Drought
wasconsideredamoderatethreatbecausemost
residentshadexperiencedhose-pipebans.There
wasageneralwillingnessamongstresidentstocope
withweatherdiscomfortatcertaintimesofyear.
InStockportresidentssimplydidnotseeadaptation
asanissueofrelevancebecauseoftheirexisting
weatherexperiences(theywelcomedhotter
weatherinthesummer,andarealreadyusedtowet
winters).InBristolandOxfordtherewasamoderate
levelofinterestinmeasurestomitigatesummer
temperatures(becausetheyalreadyexperience
somelevelofdiscomfortinsummertime),however
themostcommonviewwasthattheywouldadopt
someofthesemeasuresonlywhentheweather
becameuncomfortableandnotinanticipationof
hottersummers.Evenwhenresidentswereshown
theresultsoftheDECoRuMmodellingwhich
revealedthepotentialextentofoverheatingat
thelevelofindividualhomes,theywerenotunduly
concerned.
Climate change scepticism
Areyousayingit’sgettingwarmernowthanwhatitwas30oddyears
ago?BecausewhenIwasakiddiewhenIwasonschoolsummer
holidaysIcouldn’twalkonthepavements…andyetyoucanherenow
inthesummer.
Wellinthefuturethatisdebatableastowhatmighthappen…there
isatotallyalternatescenariowhichsayswewillgomuchcolderasa
resultofclimatechange.
Heat not seen as a serious problem
Ithinkitwouldn’tberelevantasatthemomentthereisn’treallya
greatneedforitbecausewehaven’tgothightemperatures.
Wehavetheheatingoninthesummer!
Heat welcomed by some in Stockport
Ifinditverydifficulttoperceivewhatthismightactuallybelike,
becauseasfarasIamconcernedatthemoment,bringiton!
Heat seen as a problem by some residents in Bristol and Oxford
Weneedtoputgreenbackintothedistrict,wereallydobecausethe
lastcoupleofyearsifyouwalkeddownFiltonAveonahotdayitislike
walkingthroughtheGobiDesert,itisboiling.
Willingness to cope with occasional heat
That’slifeisn’tit?Youhavegotafewdaysoftheyearwhenit’sgoing
tobeextremelyhot,enjoythemwhileyoucanbecausetherestof
thetimeit’sgoingtobecold.
Flooding not considered a serious risk
There’squiteafewyearsyouknowsincewehadafloodupheresoit
seemsabitoverthetopforourhouses(floodpreventionmeasures)
Climate impacts a future issue only
Isupposeoverafiftyyearspanitislikelythatwindowswhichare
currentlyinstalledwillneedreplacing,andIsupposeatthatpoint
thesekindofthingswouldbecomingin.
IthinklikemostotherpeopleIwouldreact.IfthereisaneedforitI
woulddoit,iftherewasn’taneedforitatthetimeIwouldn’tdoit.
Figure 8.1 Quotationsaboutclimatechangebyresidents
Chapter 8
66
8.3 Residential property adaptation
8.3.1 What are residents’ attitudes to mitigation
options?
Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionof
mitigationmeasuresappropriatefortheirproperty
typeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyorunlikely
toimplementanyofthesemeasuresintheirhome
andgarden(Figure8.2).Themostlikelyadaptations
aredouble/tripleglazing,roofinsulationandfood
growing.Airsourceheatpumps,externalwall
insulationandsolarpanelsaremuchlesslikely
tobeconsideredbyresidents.Someresidents
havealreadyimplementedmitigationmeasures
becauseofgrantsandsubsidies,hobbies(e.g.
gardening),routineupgrades(e.g.newwindows)
andenvironmentalconcerns(e.g.photovoltaics).
Cost-savingsandenvironmentalconcernsare
thekeydriversforresidentswantingtoinstall
mitigationmeasures.Reasonsfornotimplementing
measureswerecost,paybackperiod,maintenance,
andpotentialreductioninhousevalue.Resident
supportforsomeofthemitigationmeasuresvaries
accordingtocasestudyarea.Therewaslesssupport
forphotovoltaicsandsolarpanelsinStockport
comparedtothesoutherncitiesofBristoland
Oxford.
Suburb typology Inner historicPre-war
Garden Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high
Case study St WerburghsSummertown,
Oxford
Botley
Oxford
Cheadle
Stockport
Bramhall
Stockport
Horfield
Bristol
Photovoltaicpanels 4 - 7 7 - 4
Solarpanels - - 7 7 - -
Growfood 4 4 4 - 4 4
Externalwallinsulation 7 - 7 - 7 7
Double/tripleglazing 4 7 4 4 4 4
Roofinsulation 4 4 4 4 4 4
Cavitywallinsulation 4 - 4 -
Airsourceheatpump 7
Likelihoodofimplementation:Likely4 Mixed- Unlikely7
Shadedareas:adaptationnottestedinthatcasestudy
Figure 8.2 Residents’likelihoodofimplementingmitigationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb
67
whichhaveashading/coolingfunction(wallgreenery,
lock-openwindows,externalshading,shading
outdoorspace).Theleastlikelyadaptationsrelateto
internalthermalmass,greenroofsandunderpinning
homes.Adaptationswouldbemadeforaesthetic,
enjoymentreasons,andtosaverainwater.Themain
reasonfornotimplementingsummeradaptation
measureswasthestrongopinionthattheysimply
werenotneeded.
8.3.2 What are residents’ attitudes to ‘summer’
adaptation options?
Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionof
summeradaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheir
propertytypeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyor
unlikelytoimplementanyofthesemeasuresintheir
homeandgarden(Figure8.3).Asheatisnotseen
asaseriousproblem,adaptationsareeitherseenas
unnecessary(particularlyinthenorthwhereclimate
changeiswelcomed)orbehaviouraladaptations
areseenassufficient.Droughtandwaterprudence
isbetterunderstoodsowaterbuttsareparticularly
favoured.Themostlikelyadaptationsaresimple
watersavingmeasures(waterbutts)andmeasures
Suburb typology Inner historicPre-war
Garden Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high
Case study St WerburghsSummertown,
Oxford
Botley
Oxford
Cheadle
Stockport
Bramhall
Stockport
Horfield
Bristol
Externalsolarshading 7 - - 7 7 4
Internalshutters 7 7 - 7 -
Externalshutters 7
Solarfilm 4 - 7 4 7 4
Wallgreenery 4 4 - 7
Greenroof 7 7 - 7 7 -
Shadedoutdoorspace 7 4 4 4 - -
Waterbutt 4 4 4 4 4
Rainwaterharvesting
system4 - 7 7 7 7
Internalthermalmass 7 - 7 -
Whiteroofandwalls 4 7 7 7
Extendeaves 7 7 7
Lock-openwindows 4 4 4 4 4
Underpinhouse 7 7 7
Drought-resistant
planting4
Likelihoodofimplementation:Likely4 Mixed- Unlikely7
Shadedareas:adaptationnottestedinthatcasestudy
Figure 8.3 Residents’likelihoodofimplementing‘summer’adaptationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb
68
measuressuchastricklevents,airbrickcoversand
maintainingguttering.Thereisalackofawareness
amongresidentsofwinteradaptationoptions
andconfusionoverthebenefitsofprotectingan
individualhomefromfloodingincontrasttorelying
eitheroninsuranceattachedtothepropertyand/or
localauthorityflooddefences.
8.3.3 What are residents’ attitudes to ‘winter’
adaptation options?
Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionofwinter
adaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheirproperty
typeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyorunlikelyto
implementanyofthesemeasuresintheirhomeand
garden(Figure8.4).Thereislesssupportforthese
measuresthanmitigationandsummeradaptations.
Eventhosewhohaveexperiencedflooding(either
directlyornearby)arenotverylikelytoimplement
floodingadaptations,althoughasmallnumberwould
considerflood-gatesandflood-doors.Thereisa
moderatelevelofinterestinreplacingnon-porous
drives.Themostlikelyadaptationsaresimple
Suburb typology Inner historicPre-war
Garden Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high
Case study St WerburghsSummertown,
Oxford
Botley
Oxford
Cheadle
Stockport
Bramhall
Stockport
Horfield
Bristol
Externalrender 4 - 7 7 7
Re-pointingbrickwork - 4
Replacenon-porous
driveways4 4 7 -
Woodprotectors 4
Tricklevents 4 - 4 7 7
Maintainguttering 4
Flood-proofdoor 7 7 7 7 7
Floodgate 7 7 7 - 7
Airbrickcovers 7 4 7 4
Elevateelectrical
sockets7 7 7 7
Replaceinternal
flooring-
Floodskirting 7
Water-proofwindow
seals7
Likelihoodofimplementation:Likely4 Mixed- Unlikely7
Shadedareas:adaptationnottestedinthatcasestudy
Figure 8.4 Residents’likelihoodofimplementing‘winter’adaptationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb
69
8.3.4 What are the factors that determine whether
residents would or would not adopt an adaptation
measure?
Thelikelihoodofresidentsadoptingadaptation
measuresisinfluencedbyanumberoffactors
includingtheinitialcost,convenienceandvisual
appearanceofmeasuresandthelongerterm
paybackperiodandotherlifestyleandenvironmental
benefits.Adaptationoptionsthatappealthemost
toresidentsarethosethatoffermultiplebenefits
(e.g.arecost-saving,visuallyattractiveandimprove
climatecomfort).Measuresthatproducedadditional
benefitswerefavouredsuchasdouble/tripleglazing
(noisereduction),growingfood(enjoyable/hobby)
andwallgreenery(visuallyattractive).Solarfilm
wasstronglysupportedintheBristolcasestudies
becauseitischeap,canbefittedquicklybyDIY
(andremovedifdesired),anddoesnotsignificantly
changethevisualappearanceofaproperty.People
weremorelikelytoadoptameasure(orhadalready
doneso)ifitwaslikelytocoincidewithotherhome
renovations,reducingthecostsandminimising
disruptionfrombuildingworks.
Reasonsfornotbeingsupportiveofadaptation
measuresincludedpotentialdamagetoproperty
(wallgreenery),inappropriatehousingorientation
(solarpanelsneedingsouthfacingroofs),lacking
sunlitgardenspace(growingfood),notplanning
tostayintheirhomelong-term(tomakeoutlay
costsworthwhile)andnothavingthecapacityto
implementmeasuresneedingapprovalfromHousing
Associationormanagementboard(solarpanels)or
waterutilitycompanies(rainwaterharvesting).
Residents’wereparticularlyquicktopointout
behaviouralalternativestoadapttosomeofthe
changingweatherconditions,suchasclosing
curtainsduringthedaytimeandopeningwindowsin
theevening(orevennotusingparticularrooms)to
reduceinternalhousetemperaturesinthesummer.
Thesecommonsensemeasurescouldreducethe
needfortechnicalmeasuresand/orchangestothe
builtfabricoftheirindividualproperties.Residents’
responsestoadaptationmeasureswerealso
influencedby:
• Previousweatherexperience–whethertheir
homehadfloodedbefore,iftheyhadfelt
uncomfortablyhotintheirhomesorexperienced
overheatinginfriends’/family’shomes;
• Familiaritywiththeoptions–whethertheyhad
heardofthembeforeandhoweffectivetheywere
perceivedtobe;and
• Responsibilityforaddressingclimaterisk–
whethertheythoughtthatindividualhouseholders
orotherstakeholderswereresponsiblefortaking
actiontoreducetheimpactofclimatechange.
Figure8.5givesasummaryofresidents’reasonsfor
beingmoreorlesslikelytoadapt.
Reasons for being likely to choose
an adaptation measure
Reasons for being less likely to choose
an adaptation measure
• Inexpensive
• Convenienttoinstall(i.e.DIY)
• Looksattractive
• Lifestylebenefits(enjoyable,reducesnoise)
• Providesenergycost-savings
• Environmentallyfriendly(reducescarbonemissions)
• Improvescurrentclimatecomfort
• Ismoreefficient
• Potentialforfinancialsupport(grantsandsubsidies)
• Couldbedoneeasilywithotherhomerenovations
• Tooexpensiveasinitialcost
• Majorbuildingworksrequired
• Bulkyandunattractive
• Potentialdamagetopropertyfrommeasure
• Lossofhousespace
• Inappropriatehousingorientationformeasure
• Lackofspaceorsunlightrequiredformeasure
• Simplerbehaviouralalternative
• Requiringexternalapproval(e.g.fromhousing
association)
Figure 8.5 Residents’reasonsforbeingmoreorlesslikelytochooseanadaptationoption
70
8.3.5 How does the likelihood to implement
adaptation measures vary between case studies?
Residents’likelihoodofimplementingadaptation
measuresvariesbetweencasestudiesbased
onthetype of the house and suburbandthe
characteristics of the community.
Housing and suburb type:someadaptation
measuresaremorepopularincertaincasestudy
areasdependingonthehousingtypeandthesuburb
typology.Forexampleshadedoutdoorspaceis
muchmorepopularinsuburbswithlargergardens
eventhoughitisapplicabletoallthehousingtypes.
Community characteristics:althoughcostwas
amajorfactorinallcasestudies,thehighestand
lowestincomeneighbourhoodsweremostlikely
tobeprimarilyinfluencedbyfinancialfactors.The
lowestincomeneighbourhoodcouldnotaffordthe
initialcostofmanymeasures,andthewealthier
neighbourhoodswouldnotchoosetospend
themoneyonmeasuresthatdidnotguarantee
afinancialreturnwithinashort-mediumterm
timeframe.Thewealthierneighbourhoodswere
moreresistanttomakingchangesforthesakeof,
orinresponseto,climatechange,andweremuch
moremotivatedbyfinancialorlifestylebenefits
fromcarryingoutimprovementstotheirproperties.
Thelow-middleincomeneighbourhoodswere
moreenvironmentallymotivatedandcouldalsosee
thepracticalbenefitsinadaptationmeasuresto
improvingtheclimatecomfortoftheirhomes.
Thewealthofresidentsalsoinfluencedthe
preferencestheyhadbetweendifferentadaptation
measuresthatachievedthesameclimatebenefit.
Forexample,althoughsolarfilmonwindows
wasverypopularinthelow-mediumincome
neighbourhoods,thewealthierneighbourhoods
favouredmoreexpensivewindowshadingmeasures
duetoconcernsthatsolarfilmmightlookcheapand
devaluetheirproperty.
Figure8.6summarisesthecommunity
characteristicsofeachcasestudyareathat
influencedresidents’likelihoodofimplementing
adaptationmeasures.
St Werburghs, Bristol
Low-mediumincomeowner-occupier
neighbourhood.Highenvironmentalawareness
amongresidents.Goodknowledgeoftheirproperty
characteristicsandhowapplicableadaptation
measuresmightbe.
Summertown, Oxford
Medium-highincomeowner-occupier
neighbourhood.Residentswerescepticalof
climatechangeprojectionsandsawlittleneedfor
adaptation.
Botley, Oxford
Medium-highincomeowner-occupier
neighbourhood.Residentswerescepticalabout
climatechangeandsawlittleneedforadaptation.
Someinterestinmeasuresthatincreaseclimate
comfortduringwarmsummerdays.
Cheadle, Stockport
Verylowincomesocialhousingneighbourhood.
Somemitigationmeasuresalreadybeencarried
outintheirpropertiesbythehousingassociation.
Residentshypotheticallyinterestedinadaptation
measuresiftheyhadthemoneytofundthem.
Bramhall, Stockport
Highincomeowner-occupierneighbourhood.
Residentsscepticalaboutclimatechange
projectionsandwerelesswillingtoconsider
adaptationmeasuresbecauseoflackofdirect
experienceofhotweather.Stronglymotivated
bycostandwouldonlyconsidermeasureswith
subsidiesthatwouldprovideafinancialreturnor
lifestylebenefit.
Horfield, Bristol
Lowincomemix-tenureneighbourhood.Housing
associationundertakensomemitigationmeasures
inhomes.Residentsinterestedinlearningmore
aboutadaptationmeasures.
Figure 8.6 Communitycharacteristicsofthesuburband
theirinfluenceonresidents’likelihoodofimplementing
adaptationmeasures
71
8.4 Neighbourhood adaptation
Inadditiontoaskingresidentsaboutchanges
totheirownhomeswewerealsointerestedin
theirviewsonchangestotheirneighbourhoods.
Becauseresidentsmayormaynotberesponsible
forimplementingsuchchangesweaskedthem
abouttheirpotentialroleinsuchadaptationsand
alsoabouttheiracceptanceofthemifimplemented
byanotheragency(e.g.LocalAuthority).Residents
werepresentedwithaselectionofneighbourhood
adaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheirsuburb
typeforstreetsandgreenspacesandasked
whethertheywerelikelyorunlikelytoacceptanyof
thesemeasuresintheirneighbourhood.
8.4.1 What is the level of support for adaptation
measures at the neighbourhood scale?
Figure8.7showsthelevelofresidentsupportfor
neighbourhoodadaptationsineachcasestudy.
Residentsaremainlypositiveaboutschemesto
adapttheirneighbourhood.Theyaremostpositive
aboutstreettrees,energyefficientstreetlighting,
blueinfrastructureingreenspacesandreconfiguring
thestreettoimprovedrainage(SUDS).Thereare
mixedviewsoncommunitycoolroomsbasedon
perceivedneedforsuchfacilities,andinonecase
studyresidentsdidnotsupportallotmentsbecause
theyconsideredtheretobeenoughalreadyinthe
localarea.Theonlystrongnegativeopinionsto
neighbourhoodadaptationwerefoundinonecase
studywhereresidentswereresistanttoanychanges
toavaluedlocalgreenspace.
Suburb typology Inner historic Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high
Case study St WerburghsBotley
Oxford
Cheadle
Stockport
Bramhall
Stockport
Horfield
Bristol
Shading, localised cooling and drought resistance
Streettrees 4 4 4 4 -
Shadingingreenspace 7 4 - -
Blueinfrastructure - 4 4
Communitycoolroom - 4 - 4
Drought-resistanttrees -
Sharedspace - -
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage 4 4 4 4 4
Flooddefences 4 4
Mitigation of future climate change
Energyefficientstreetlighting 4 4 4 4 4
Allotments 7 - 4
Acceptabilityofoption:Acceptable4 Mixed- Unacceptable7
Shadedareas:adaptationnottestedinthatcasestudy
Figure 8.7 Residents’supportforneighbourhoodadaptationsbycasestudysuburb
72
Neighbourhoodadaptationsweresupported
becausetheywouldmakeneighbourhoodsmore
attractive(streettrees),improveenergyefficiency
(lighting)andreducesurfacewaterfloodingrisk
(reconfigurestreetdrainage,flooddefences).Some
concernswereraisedbyresidentsabouttheimpact
ofinstallingthesemeasuresandtheeffectofthe
changesontheneighbourhood,particularlywith
streettrees.Issuesofmaintenance,thepotential
damageoftreerootstofootpathsandroads,and
thedangerofobscuringvisibilityforreducedroad
safetyandanti-socialbehaviourwerementioned.
Thequestionofwhowouldpayforintroducing
thesemeasureswasalsoidentified,withresidents
concernedaboutincreasedtaxationormanagement
charges.
8.4.2 What factors determine residents’
acceptance of adaptation measures at the
neighbourhood scale?
Supportforadaptationmeasuresatthe
neighbourhoodscaleinstreetsandgreenspaces
wereinfluencedbythehistoryofcommunity
actioninthelocalarea,residents’experienceswith
previouslocalauthorityretrofittinginitiativesand
currentsocialissuesintheneighbourhood.Figure
8.8summarisesthekeyfactorsthatdeterminedthe
levelofsupportforadaptationatthisscale.
8.5 Responsibility for delivering adaptation
Akeyissueinconsideringadaptationiswhere
responsibilityliesfortakingaction.Theresidents
discussedthisissueatlengthandtheirviewsare
summarisedhere.
8.5.1 Who do residents think should be responsible
for adaptation?
Residentsconsideroverheatinganindividual’s
responsibilityandadoptingadaptationmeasures
isanissueofpersonalchoicetoimprovecomfort
levelswithinthehome.Theimpactsofincreased
temperaturemaybetoolong-termandgradualto
motivateproactiveactionintheshort-termunless
residentsalreadyexperienceuncomfortablyhot
weatherintheirhomes.Withregardtoflooding,
St Werburghs, Bristol
Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhood
adaptations.Historyofpositivecommunityaction
aroundenvironmentalissues.
Botley, Oxford
Lowlevelofsupportforneighbourhoodadaptations.
Oppositiontorecentlocalauthorityinitiativeto
modifylocalgreenspace.
Cheadle, Stockport
Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhood
adaptations.Historyofcommunityactionaround
socialissuesandgovernment-ledregeneration
experiencedashavingpositiveimpactsonthelocal
area.
Bramhall, Stockport
Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhoodadaptations
butscepticalofmeasuresbeingimplemented.Lack
ofhistoryoflocalauthorityinitiativesinlocalarea
andlossofcommunityleaderforcollectiveaction.
Horfield, Bristol
Moderatelevelofsupportforneighbourhood
adaptations.Neighbourhoodhistoryofsocial
problemscreatedconcernsoversecurityand
anti-socialbehaviourfromsomeneighbourhood
adaptations.Disruptionandmaintenance
residentsconsiderpreventativemeasuresalocal
authorityorcentralgovernmentresponsibility,
partlyduetotheperceivedineffectivenessof
individualactioninaddressingthethreatandpartly
duetoattitudesonpersonalandgovernment
areasofresponsibility.Butresidentsconsider
reactivefloodingmeasuressomethingtopossibly
considerafterafloodeventthroughinsurance
compensations.Thereisnospeculationbyresidents
thatinsurancecompaniesmightstopinsuring
againstfloodsinthefuture.Eventhosethathave
previouspersonalexperienceoffloodingdonot
necessarilyseetheneedtotakeactionthemselves.
Residentsfeltresponsiblefordamagetotheir
homesfromstorms/windetc.
Figure 8.8 Neighbourhoodfactorsthataffectedlevelof
supportforneighbourhoodadaptation
73
8.5.2 What role do residents think collective action
could have in delivering adaptation?
Residentsidentifiedtheneedforsomemeasures
tobeundertakenbyhouseholdersatthe
neighbourhoodscale.Forexample,someflood
measuresintroducedatthehouselevelwouldonly
beeffectiveifeveryoneinthestreetimplements
them.Othermeasures,suchasexternalinsulation,
wouldneedtobeinstalledoneveryhouseonthe
streettomaintainvisualcontinuityandbemorecost
efficient.
Theroleofcommunitygroupswasraisedas
importantfordeliveringneighbourhoodadaptations.
Residentsidentifiedtheimportanceofindividualsin
neighbourhoodsthatactedascommunityleaders
toinitiateprojectsandrallycommunityinvolvement
andsupport.Therecentlossofsuchaleaderin
onecommunitywasnotedasreducingcommunity
capacityforcollectiveaction.Localchurches,
communitytrusts,residents’actiongroupsand
tenants’associationswerediscussedasbeing
importantavenuesfortacklingneighbourhood
issues.
Theexistingcommunitycapacityinmost
neighbourhoodsisnotcurrentlybeingusedto
addressclimatechangeadaptationbutinsomeof
thecasestudyareasthereisexistingcommunity
activitytargetingmitigationandavarietyofother
issues(suchasanti-socialbehaviour)thatcouldbe
tappedintoforadaptation.
8.6 Conclusions
Thischapterhaspresentedasummaryofresidents’
responsestoadaptationintheirhomes,gardens
andneighbourhoods.Thefindingsarerevealing
inhighlightingresidents’awarenessofclimate
changeandtheirviewsonit.Theyalsoshedlight
onwhichadaptationsresidentsmayimplement
autonomously,andwhichtheywouldnot.Residents’
reasonsforactingand/ornotactingareusefulin
framingstrategiesforsuburbanadaptation.
74
75
Stakeholders’ responses to adaptation in suburbs
9.1 Introduction
Thischapterreportsthefindingsfromthethree
workshopsheldwithstakeholdersinOxford,Bristol
andStockport.Therangeofstakeholderattendees
hasbeendescribedinChapter4.Theyincluded
representationfromlocalauthorities(officersand
members),theconstructionindustry,thecommunity
andNGOsectoraswellasotherpublicbodies.
Around30stakeholdersattendedtheworkshops
acrossthethreecitiesandalthoughthiscannot
claimtoberepresentativeofallviewsheldbykey
stakeholdersinvolvedinsuburbanadaptation,itdoes
giveaclearperspectiveonthetypesofviewheld.
Attheworkshopstheparticipantsdiscussed:
• Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopsin
eachcity,andthestakeholders’experiencesof
workingwithhouseholdslocally;
• Theroleofcommunitiesinadaptation;
• Howthestakeholdersarecurrentlytackling
adaptation;
• Theroleofplanningandbuildingregulationsin
adaptations;
• Thebestmechanismsfordeliveringadapted
suburbs.
Thefindingsfromtheworkshopsaresummarised
here.
9.2 Stakeholders experiences of working with residents
Manyofthestakeholdersworkdirectlyorindirectly
withhouseholdersinmitigationand/oradaptation
actions.Othersareinvolvedwithresidentsdealing
withtheimpactsof,forexampledroughts,flooding
andoverheating.Thestakeholdersexperiencesof
workingwithresidentsissummarisedhere.
9.2.1 What are stakeholders’ experiences of how
residents understand adaptation?
Thestakeholdersreportedalackofresidents’
awarenessofclimatechangeand,inparticular,alack
ofconcernoveradaptation.Theywerenotsurprised
thatwehadfoundthathomeownerslacked
awarenessaboutspecificadaptationsolutions
thatgobeyondmeasuresthatalsoacttomitigate
climatechange,suchasinsulationanddouble-
glazing.Thestakeholdershadalsoexperienced
householders’lackofawareness,particularlyof
moretechnicalissues,suchasthermalmass.In
manyinstances,residentshaveneverevenheardof
particularmeasuresandoftenrequireprofessionals
toexplainthem.Thissaid,someofthearchitectural
stakeholdersreportedthatsomeoftheirclients
areconcernedabouttheeffectsofinsulationon
overheatingandairquality.Theseconcernsare
associatedwithcurrentthermalcomfort,andnot
aneedtoadaptforfutureclimatechange.Most
stakeholdersagreedthatclimatechangeisnot
likelytobethekeydriverfortheimplementationof
adaptationmeasuresinresidentialproperties.
9.2.2 What drives residents to install adaptation
measures in their homes? And what is likely to drive
them to install adaptation measures in the future?
Stakeholders’experienceswerethatresidentswere
motivatedtoinstallmitigationmeasuresmainly
bycostsavings.However,thepaybackperiodon
adaptationsisanimportantdriverforhouseholders.
Solarpanelsweregivenasanexamplewherepeople
areseeingthemasaninvestmentwhichgivesthem
areturnoveralongperiod.
Stakeholdersfeltthatthekeydriverforresidents
inthefuturewouldbeanincreaseinenergybills.
Suchincreasesmaymakesomeadaptationsmore
popular.Theyalsothoughtthatpeoples’experiences
ofclimatechangewouldneedtobemore‘extreme’
beforetheyact.
9.2.3 What stops residents from adapting their
homes? And what would stop residents from
adapting their homes in the future?
Thestakeholders’experienceswerethat
householdersareunlikelytotakeanticipatoryaction
iftheyarenotexperiencingproblems.Forexample,
temperatureswouldneedtorisesignificantlybefore
householderstakeactiontoinstalladaptation
measures.Theydescribedpeopleas‘market-
laggers’whowillresistdoinganythinguntilthey
haveto.Theyhadalsofoundthatmanypeople(and
communities)distrustgovernmentinformation
Chapter 9
76
andfreeservices,andthislimitsmitigationand
adaptationuptake.Inaddition,financialconstraints
oftenmeanthatadaptation(oranyhome
improvement)isnotapriority.Theyalsoreported
thatmanyresidentssimplydonotmakethe
connectionbetweenclimatechange,adaptationand
theirhomeorneighbourhoodenvironment.And,in
relationtothis,thereislittleadviceforhomeowners
onthisissue.Architecturalfirmsthatunderstand
theneedforadaptationandcanadviseonmeasures
areonlyusedbypeoplespendingalotofmoneyon
majorhouseextensions.Homeownersusuallygo
directlytosuppliersandbuilderswhodeliveran‘end
product’,ratherthanseekingarchitecturaladvice
abouthowtomake‘climateproof’adaptations.
Intermsoffuturechanges,stakeholdersnoteda
numberofkeyreasonsthatresidentsmaynotadapt.
First,theyconcurredwithourfindingsthatingeneral
peoplesawtemperatureincreasesaspositiveand
notsomethingtoworryabout.Increasedsummer
temperaturesarewelcomedbysomeintheNorth,
limitingtheperceivedneedforadaptationtoprevent
overheatinginhomes.Second,theydidnotfeelthat
currentpricingmechanismsaroundclimatechange
issueswereeffectiveinmakingpeopleconsider
adaptations.Forexample,currentlywaterisrelatively
cheap,andthepricemechanismsfordealingwith
surfacewaterarenoteffective.Third,theyfound
thatpeopleputoffchangestotheirhomesbecause
theydonotlikethedisruption.
Stakeholdersreflectedonthenatureofsuburbs
andsuburbanadaptation,arguingthatsome
adaptationsrepresenttoomuchofaculturalchange
tothelookofsuburbanhousingforresidentstofind
themdesirable.Theyalsocommented(asdidthe
residents)thatinstallingsomeadaptationmeasures
(suchasfloodprotection)coulddrawattention
topotentialproblemsinhomes,sothiswasalso
problematic.
9.2.4 What is needed to facilitate householders to
make adaptations to their homes?
Thestakeholdersdrewontheirexperiencesto
offerinsightsintowhattheyfeltwouldfacilitate
householderstoadapt.Theirsuggestionswere:
• Getthemessagesright:‘climatechange’
messagescancreateresistancetoaction,so
engagehouseholderswiththepracticaland
immediatebenefitsofinstallingadaptation
measures,andstresscost-effectivenessand
‘qualityoflife/comfort’benefits.Peopleneed
tobeengagedinthetangibleandimmediate
benefitsofaction,notonvaguenotionsoffuture
benefit.Stakeholdersperceivethatresidentsare
mostlikelytobemotivatedbycost-savingsand
comfort,somessagesofcost-effectivehouse
maintenanceandimprovingliveabilitymaybe
effective.Theythoughtlessonscouldbelearnt
fromthesuccessofclimatechangeactionwhere
low-carbonbehaviourisframedasamoney-
savingactivitynotjustanenvironmentalsolution.
• Provideadviceorinformationduring‘windowsof
opportunity’.Therearewindowsofopportunity
whenhomeownersaremorelikelytomake
changestotheirhomes,e.g.whentheyfirst
moveintoanewhomeandwhentheyaredoing
otherhomeimprovementssuchasextensionsor
replacingwindows.Thesearekeytimestoconvey
messagesaboutclimatechangemitigationand
adaptation.
• Providetrainingtothemaincontactpointsfor
homeimprovements.Trainthefrontlinecontact
points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,estateagents
astheycanhelpwithsuggestionsforhome
improvementsatcriticaltimes.
• Targetinformationtoareasthathavealready
experiencedfloodingoroverheating.Peoplemay
bemoremotivatedtoimplementadaptation
measuresiftheyhavealreadyexperiencedthe
negativeimpactsofclimatechange(althoughour
findingsfromtheresidents’workshopsshowthat
thismaynotbethecasewithrespecttoflooding).
• Developdemonstrationprojectsofgood
adaptation.Fewexamplesofgoodadaptation
exist.Peopleneedtobeshowngoodexamples
ofanadaptedhouse(orneighbourhood)andto
seeadaptationmeasuresworkingeffectively
andlookingattractivetobeinterestedinmaking
changestotheirownproperties.
77
9.3 Stakeholders experiences of working with communities
Inadditiontohouseholdersactingindependently,
wewereinterestedincommunityresponsesto
adaptation.Thestakeholdershadsomeexperience
ofworkingwithcommunitiesandtheirviewsare
summarisedhere.
9.3.1 What drives communities to undertake
collective action for adaptation and mitigation?
And what deters them?
Thestakeholdershadexperienceofnon-
environmentalcommunitygroupswith
complementaryagendasworkingtoencourage
householderstomakechangestotheirhomes.
Thesegroupscouldhaveafocusonsocialinclusion,
olderpeoples’welfareorfuelpoverty,butthe
outcomeswerethesame(i.e.someadaptationsto
thehome).
Inothercircumstancescommunityactionhad
beenusedtoaccesscentralgovernmentfunding
thatlocalauthoritiescannot.Thiscommunityand
neighbourhood‘autonomy’isbeingplayedout
throughpolicyagendassuchasthe‘BigSociety’.
Amorecollaborativerelationshipwithlocal
authorities,forexamplethroughthedevelopment
ofneighbourhoodplanswhichcontainadaptation
measures,mightalsobeawayforward.However
therewaslittledirectionfromstakeholdersonhow
thismighthappen.
Currentlystakeholders’experienceswerethatvery
activecommunities,interestedinbothclimate
changemitigationandadaptation,wererare.
Lowcarbonorlowenergyobjectivesweremore
common,andadaptationtoclimatechangeand
resiliencemeasureswerenotpromotedbylow-
carbongroups.Inadditioncommunitygroupsthat
arecurrentlyengagedincommunityworkaround
floodingdonotnecessarilyengagewiththetopic
ofclimatechangeandthetrendthatfloodingis
likelytoworseninthefuture.Overall,community
campaigninggroupstendtohaveasingle-issue
focuswithanagendaforeitheradaptation(less
likely)ormitigation(morelikely),butnotboth.
9.3.2 What is needed to facilitate communities to
undertake collective action for adaptation?
Stakeholders’suggestedseveralkeyactionsthat
mightengagecommunitiesinadaptationactions:
• EncourageLocalAuthoritiestobuildlocalcapacity
forcollectivecommunityaction:LocalAuthorities
canencouragetheformationofcommunity
groupsthroughcapacity-buildingactivitiesand
provideadviceonaccessinggovernmentgrants.
• Buildadaptationintolow-carbonactivitiesalready
beingcarriedoutbycommunitygroups:Building
ontheexistingactivityandmomentumwithin
communitygroupsorientedoncarbonreduction
wouldbeaneffectivewaytodeliveradaptation.
9.4 Adaptations by stakeholders
Aswellasworkingwithresidentsandcommunities,
somestakeholdersaredirectlyinvolvedin
implementingsuburbanadaptation.Thissection
explorestheirexperiences.
9.4.1 How do stakeholders perceive climate change
in relation to their work on adaptation?
Thestakeholdersinourworkshopshadagood
understandingofclimatechange.Theymaynot
regularlyuseclimatechangedata,butoperatefrom
agenericunderstandingthatweatherconditions
intheUKaregoingtogetwarmerandwetter.Most
consideredfloodingacurrentproblemthatislikelyto
getworsethroughclimatechange.Overheatingand
droughtwereseenasaprobleminOxfordandBristol
butlesssoinStockport.Ingeneral,overheating
isacomparativelynewconcernforstakeholders
andthereisadegreeofuncertaintyabouthow
severetheproblemwillbeandwhen.Infact,many
ofthestakeholdersreportedthatthelong-term
timeframesofclimatechangeimpactsprovidea
reasontojustifythedelayintakingactioninthe
present.
Manystakeholdersinourworkshopsfocused,
professionally,onasingleclimatechangerisk:
flooding,overheatingordrought.Fewerhad
responsibilitiesforarangeofthreats.Theyall
distinguishedbetweencurrentclimateproblems
78
andthoseconnectedwithclimatechange.Most
assessedclimaterisksandtheneedforaction
relativetootherpartsofthecountry.
9.4.2 What is the relationship between ‘mitigation’
and ‘adaptation’ for stakeholders? And how are
stakeholders currently tackling adaptation?
Untilrecently,thepolicyfocusinEnglandhasbeen
onclimatechangemitigation,particularlyreducing
carbonemissionsthroughimprovingtheenergy
efficiencyofhomesandreducingtheneedfor
heatinginwinter.Adaptationisseenasanemergent
policyagenda.Perhapsbecauseofthis,adaptationis
notahighpriorityformanystakeholderscompared
tomitigation.
Manyofthestakeholdersareengagedintrying
toencouragemitigationandadaptationthrough
communityaction.Othersworkinthedeliveryof
thebuiltenvironment,andheretheyreportthat
thefocushasbeenonnewbuilddevelopment,
ratherthanretrofittingexistinghousingstock.Local
authoritiesdocurrentlyengageandencouragethe
privateowner-occupierhousingsectortoinstall
low-carbonmeasuressuchascavitywallandloft
insulation,andsomearetryingtoencouragethe
privaterentalsectortoinsulatehomesthrough
activelandlordforums.However,thestakeholders’
experienceswerethatHousingAssociations
currentlyleadthewayonmitigationmeasures.
Theyupgradeexistinghousingstockandhave
beenparticularlyattheforefrontwithinstalling
solarpanels.Theyaremuchmorelikelythanprivate
householderstoseekarchitecturaladviceforthese
improvements.
9.4.3 What role do building regulations and planning
have in delivering adaptation?
Duringthediscussionssomespecificpointswere
madearoundtheroleofbuildingregulationsand
planninginEngland.First,manystakeholdersargued
thatintermsofmitigationandadaptation,thescope
ofbuildingregulationsisquitelimited.Theyareonly
applicablefornewbuildorsubstantialadditionsto
existingbuildings.Hence,modificationsthatimpact
onclimatechange(positivelyornegatively)can
happenoutsideoftheregulations.Second,building
regulationsuseminimumstandardssotheydo
notnecessarilyencouragebestpracticeorideal
adaptationsolutions.Third,they(alongwithmost
ofthebuildingindustry)areverymuchfocusedon
reducingheatinginwinter.Thinkingaboutfuture
summerconditionsgeneratedfromclimatechange
willrequireadifferentsetofregulationsthatalso
accountsforpotentialoverheatingrisks.
Intermsofplanning,itwasnotedthatthereare
someseriouslimitationsinaddressingmitigationand
adaption.First,therearelimitstowhatthestatutory
planningsystemcandotoaddressclimatechange.
Theonlyleveragethesystemhastoregulatefor
adaptationiswhenhouseholdersareundertaking
significanthomeextensionsorloftconversions
whereplanningapprovalisrequired.Itcannotrequire
adaptationsretrospectivelyforpreviousextensions
orloftconversions.Therearealsolimitstowhatcan
berequiredofhouseholdersthroughconditional
planningpermission.Iftoomanyconditionsare
placedonhomeextensionsthentheworkmaynot
befinanciallyfeasibleandthereisariskofmakingit
unaffordable.Inaddition,someadaptationmeasures
arepotentiallyoutsidetheremitofplanningand
moreappropriatelycarriedoutthroughbuilding
regulations.Therearealsoproblemswithenforcing
regulations(forexample,localauthoritiesdonot
havethecapacitytoenforcepermeablesurfaces
beinglaidinfrontgardens).
Thissaid,planninglegislationdoeshavethepotential
toensurethatsomeclimatechangeadaptation
problemsdonotgetworse(e.g.therearenow
regulationsagainstfrontlawnsbeingpavedoverwith
impermeablesurfaces,althoughthereremainclear
enforcementissues).Andsomelocalauthorities
alreadyrequirelow-carbonmeasuresaspartof
planningapprovalsforloftconversionsandhome
extensionstoencouragehomeownerstomake
energy-efficiencyimprovements.However,thereare
limitstowhatcanbereasonablyrequiredinexisting
housingstock(seeChapter5).Itislikelythatlocal
policymakerswillneedtoprioritisemitigationand
adaptationconditionsonplanningapproval.
79
9.5 What are potential mechanisms for enabling suburban adaptation?
Aswellasunderstandingtheproblemsinherentin
adaptingsuburbs,wealsosoughtinsightsfromthe
stakeholdersonhowsuburbanadaptationmightbe
bestenabled.Therewassomeuncertainlyabout
whatthebestmeasureswere,butsuggestionswere:
• Awareness needs to be raised about the
connection between mitigation and adaptation:
morecommunityandpolicymakerawareness-
raisingisneededaboutthelinkbetweenmitigation
andadaptationandthebenefitsofretrofit.
• Adaptation and mitigation solutions needed
to be normalised:i.e.residentsshouldbe
incentivisedtoadapttheirhousesnowinorderto
maketheideaofretrofittingnormalandnotthe
exception.
• Adaptation needs to be integrated into existing
public and policy agendas:adaptationislikely
tobemostsuccessfullyaddressedbylinkingit
tootherissuessuchaslow-carbonandhealthy
communityagendas.Incorporatingclimatechange
adaptationtotherationaleforimplementing
changetothebuiltenvironmentfortheseother
agendascouldgenerateincreasedimpetustothe
politicalwillforadoptingsomeofthesemeasures.
Itwouldalsobeessentialtoensureactionfor
otheragendasdoesnotconflictwiththeneedto
adapttotheanticipatedclimaticchanges.
• Adaptation will require a combination of
individual, government-led and partnership
actions:thelikelygovernanceprocessesfor
achievingadaptationwouldbeacombinationof
individualhouseholder-ledandgovernment-led
actions.Householdersarelikelytoberesponsible
forimprovementstotheclimatecomfortoftheir
individualproperties.Localauthoritiesandflood
authoritieswouldberesponsiblefordelivering
adaptationmeasuresrequiredataneighbourhood
(andwiderurban/catchmentarea)scale,including
floodprevention.Theseorganisationswouldalso
usetheirexistingregulatoryframeworkstoplace
conditionsonplanningapprovalstoencourage
adaptationandundertakepromotionandadvice
initiativestosupportindividualaction.Multi-level
andmulti-agencypartnershipapproacheswill
berequired,forexample,inmanagingflooding
risk,becauseofthemultipleownershipof
infrastructureandthecomplexityofmanaging
surfacewater.
• Frontline channels of information for
householders making home improvements need
to be better informed:inafindingsimilartothat
oftheresidents’workshopsstakeholdersthought
thatbuilders,DIYstoresandestateagentsare
effectivechannelsofinformationforencouraging
homeownerstoimplementadaptationmeasures
intheirproperties.
• Effective communication of climate risks
will become critical:stakeholderswiththe
responsibilityforinformingthepublicabout
climatechangeriskswillneedtofindeffective
waysofcommunicatingtheserisks.Information
aboutdifferentlevelsofriskwillneedtobe
presentedinameaningfulandusefulformat
withoutscaremongering.
• Central government-controlled mechanisms
such as grants and subsidies are key mechanisms
to deliver adaptation:theyhavetobe
appropriatelyframedandsimplyadministered.
Forexample,theintroductionofthe‘GreenDeal’
couldprovideanopportunitytoincorporate
adaptationmeasurestoenablehouseholdersto
retrofittheirhomesforbothenergyefficiencyand
climatecomfortwithouttheinitialoutlaycost.In
particular,thereisaneedtoensurethatmeasures
forenergyefficiencydonotincreasethelikelihood
ofoverheatinginhomesduringsummer,avoiding
mal-adaptation.
• Local mechanisms for enabling adaption
have potential but require more resources:
localpromotioninitiatives,adviceandgeneral
communitycapacity-buildingactivitiesare
valuable.
• Pricing mechanisms for water and energy are,
potentially, key drivers of individual behaviour
change:(notwithstandingthelimitations
describedabove).
80
• Demonstration projects have a real value:
theyshowhouseholdersandprofessionalshow
adaptedhomes,gardensandneighbourhoods
lookandfunction.Localauthoritiescouldleadthe
waybyadaptingpublicbuildingsasflagships.
• More opportunities need to be taken of
‘economies of scale’:retrofittinghousingen
masseislikelytobecost-efficient,delivering
benefitsforindividualpropertyowners.Terrace
housingblocksinparticularcouldbetargetedfor
streetblockretrofitting,particularlyifexternal
insulationistobefittedtohomes.
Conclusions
Thischapterhassummarisedstakeholders’
experiencesofsuburbanadaptationandtheir
insightsintowhatmightmotivatechange.It
isimportanttosaythattheirsuggestionsfor
motivatingactionhavenotbeentestedfor
effectivenessindependentlyintheSNACCproject,
buttheyarebasedonawealthofexperienceofday-
to-dayworkinginclimateadaptation.
81
Synthesis of findings and conclusions – effective, feasible and acceptable suburban adaptations and pathways to achieving them
10.1 Introduction
Thischapterpresentssomekeyconclusionsfrom
theresearch.Itrevisitstheresearchquestions
posedinChapter1,anddrawsfindingsfromacross
thestudytoprovidenewinsightsintothechallenges
andopportunitiesforsuburbanadaptation.The
questionsposedwere:
• Howcanexistingsuburbanneighbourhoods
inEnglandbe‘best’adaptedtoreducefurther
impactsofclimatechangeandwithstandongoing
changes?By‘best’wemeant:whichsuburban
adaptationswouldbeeffective,feasibleand
acceptable?and;
• Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutchangein
suburbanareas?Specifically:whatmightmotivate
residentsandotherstakeholderstoadaptto
presentandfutureclimatethreats?
Thesequestionsareansweredinturn.
10.2 How can existing suburban neighbourhoods in England be ‘best’ adapted to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?
10.2.1 Overarching findings about the ‘best’
adaptations
Theresearchresultedinsomespecificfindings
aboutthebestadaptationsforspecificclimate
risks,andinspecifictypesofsuburb(seebelow).
However,italsoproducedsomeoverarchingfindings
aboutthe‘best’adaptationsforsuburbs,whichare
presentedfirst.
• There is no ‘best’ ‘one size fits all’ adaptation
package that will work in every suburb.The
‘best’adaptationdependsonthetypeofsuburb
(andtypeofhousingwithinit),theclimatethreats
inthatsuburb(e.g.somesuburbsareatriskof
flooding,someoverheating),andtheresponse
capacityinthatsuburb(e.g.theeconomicand
socialconditions,andresourcesavailableinthe
suburb).
• Effective adaptations must combine ‘adaptive
retrofitting’ with ‘low carbon retrofitting’.There
isadangerthatsomelowcarbonadaptations
maymakesuburbslessabletocopewithfuture
weatherconditions,forexamplesomeformsof
insulation,insomehomes,mayexacerbatethe
riskofoverheating(SeeAppendixEforatable
ofpotentialsynergiesandconflictsbetween
adaptationmeasures).
• At both the neighbourhood and individual home
scales, adaptation packages are more effective
than single measures.Adaptationpackages
werefoundtobeeffectiveinreducingtheriskof
overheating,andarangeofgreening,landscaping
andengineeringmeasureswouldmake
neighbourhoodsmoreliveableinfutureclimate
conditions.
• Some neighbourhood adaptation options would
be effective in adapting most suburbs for future
climate threats.Forexample,‘greening’streets
andpublicspaces(addingstreettrees,allotments,
newgreenspaces),introducingsustainable
urbandrainagefeatures,andchangingtoenergy-
efficientstreetlightingwouldbeeffective(and
acceptable)inthemajorityofsuburbs.
• Some residential adaptation measures are
suitable for all housing, but others are only
feasible for specific dwelling types.Forexample,
mosthomeswouldbenefitfromroofinsulation,
windowshading,andwater-savingdevices.Yet
measuressuchascavitywallinsulationareclearly
notfeasibleforhomesbuiltwithsolidwalls.Some
measures,althoughtheycouldbeimplementedin
allhousingtypes,aremoreeffectiveandlikelyto
becarriedoutinparticularsuburbs.Forexample,
growingfoodandshadingoutdoorspacearemore
effectiveandlikelyinhomeswithlargergardens.
• For residents, the ‘best’ adaptations tend to
be cheap, convenient, practical (given the
type of home they have), attractive, and have
some other lifestyle benefit.Householders
arealsomorelikelytoimplementdual-purpose
adaptationssuchasthosethatmeetmitigation
andadaptationcriteria(e.g.insulation)orthose
thatimprovecomfortandarevisuallyattractive
(e.g.greenery).
Chapter 10
82
10.2.2 Key findings on the ‘best’ adaptations for
mitigation and for different climate threats
Inadditiontothesegeneralfindings,theresearch
providedsomekeyfindingsonthe‘best’adaptations
tomitigatefutureclimatechange,andfordifferent
climatethreats.Thesearesummarisedhere.
Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsformitigating
further climate change.
• Home energy saving adaptations (roof and wall
insulation, double/triple glazing, PVs and solar
panels) were found to be effective in almost all
suburbs(notwithstandingsomeconcernsabout
overheating,seebelow),andwellunderstoodby
residentsandstakeholders.However,therewere
mixedviewsontheiracceptabilityandlikelihoodof
implementation.
• Increased greening of homes and gardens
(including food growing) is effective and has
multiple benefits in suburbs.Residentsare
positiveaboutitandlikelytoincreasegreenery
intheirownhomesandgardens.Neighbourhood
greeningiswelcomed,butthereareresourceand
practicalproblemsinimplementingit.
Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforflooding
• Effective adaptations to reduce the risk and
impact of floods in suburbs need to address
pluvial flooding from inadequate storm water
drainage, as much as fluvial flooding from
waterways.Thisisbecausetheformermay
contributetoagreaterproportionofflooding
problemsinthefuturewithincreasedrainintensity
andstormactivityexpectedfromclimatechange.
Ensuringporoussurfacesareretainedisimportant
(forexample,restrictingpavingoverfrontgardens
andlayinglargepatios),asisthedevelopmentof
sustainableurbandrainagesystems.However,
retrofittingSUDSinsuburbscanbedisruptiveand
expensive.
• A number of individual house-scale adaptations
can be effective in limiting some damage from
floods(e.g.airbrickcovers,flood-proofdoors,
floodgates).However,theyareunlikelytobe
implementedbyresidents,eveniftheyhave
experiencedfloodingorliveinanareaatrisk.
• Effective adaptations are those which leave the
neighbourhood or home more resilient after a
flooding event than it was before.Thiscanmean
thattheneighbourhoodisprotectedfromfurther
flooding,orthatflooddamageislimited.However
suchadaptationsareoftendifficulttoimplement
becauseinsurancecompaniesoftenonlyreplace
‘likewithlike’:theydonotpayformoreresilient
adaptations.
Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforsummertime
overheating
• A number of adaptation options are effective
in combating overheating in homes, but the
effectiveness of these options depends on the
characteristics of the home.Themosttechnically
effectiveadaptiveapproachistoreducesolar
radiationinto,andonto,thehome.Thiscanbe
doneinanumberofwaysondifferentscales,
e.g.plantingoftreesinthestreetsandwider
neighbourhood,and/orinstallingexternalshading
onhomes.Naturalventilationofthehomeis
alsofoundtobeextremelyeffective.Combining
adaptationoptionsintopackageswasfoundtobe
themosteffectivemethodofreducingtheriskof
overheating.
• Overall external shading (e.g. fixed outdoor
window shades or external shutters) is more
effective than internal shading (e.g. blinds).
Externalshuttersarethemosteffectiveasthey
keepsolarradiationoffwindowsurfacesbutthis
measurerequireskeepingshuttersclosedduring
summerdays(reducingnaturallightinhomes).
Plantinggreenwallcover,gardentreesorstreet
treesisalsoaneffectiveshadingmeasurefor
homes.
• Increasing the reflectivity of the exterior
surfaces of homes, e.g. a bright white render for
the exterior walls can also reduce overheating
risk,andresidentsarequitelikelytoimplement
it,ifitdoesnotundulyaltertheimageoftheir
neighbourhood.
• Addition of thermal mass to the home, e.g.
replacing a timber floor with a concrete floor
83
reduces potential overheatingdependenton
locationofmassandthecapacitytoreleaseheat
throughnighttimenaturalventilation.However,
thermalmassispoorlyunderstoodbyresidents
andtheyareunlikelytotakeaction.
• External insulation is effective in either reducing
overheating risk or minimising the increase in
overheating risk that would happen as a result
of installing insulation in homes.Internalwall
insulationcanincreasetheriskofoverheating.
However,externalwallinsulationisnotpopular
withresidentsandtheyareunlikelytoimplement
it.
• Reducing internal gains from sources such as hot
water heating tanks and pipe work in the home
is a very effective and inexpensive way to reduce
the risk of overheatingandincreaseenergy
savings.
• At the neighbourhood scale, the introduction
of blue and green infrastructure is likely to
bring cooling benefits and is welcomed by
residents.However,thereisuncertaintyover
implementation,particularlyaboutcostand
responsibilityforinstallationandmanagement.
• ‘Community cool rooms’couldbeeffectivein
heatwaves,butfewresidentsorstakeholders
perceivedaneedforthem,orwouldbelikelyto
implementthem.
Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforstorms and
driving rain
• A number of adaptations were effective in
protecting homes, gardens and neighbourhoods
from storm damage (e.g. weather-proofing
treatments to external walls, trickle vents,
retaining porous surfaces).However,residents
wereunlikelytoimplementthesespecificallyto
protecttheirhomesfromstormdamage.They
feltroutinemaintenance(e.g.clearinggutters,
replacingloserooftiles,ensuringgardenfences
werewellconstructed)weremoreimportant.
Likewiseattheneighbourhoodscale,few
adaptationswereconsideredinrespecttostorm
damage.
Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsfordroughts and
water scarcity
• Effective adaptations to homes and gardens
include rainwater harvesting systems, and
simple measures such as water butts.Rainwater
harvestingwaspoorlyunderstoodandunlikely
tobeimplementedinmostsuburbs.Water
buttswerepopularandalreadycommonlyused.
Residentsunderstoodwaterscarcitybecausethey
hadexperiencedhosepipebans,butthishadnot
madethemmorelikelytoplantdroughtresistant
plantsorchangethetypeoffruitandvegetables
theygrow.
• At the neighbourhood scale planting that can
withstand climate changes and requires less
water is seen as an effective measure,andislikely
tobecomemorecommonlyimplementedbylocal
authorities.
• Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems can be
effective,andaremorefeasibleinlowerdensity
suburbswithmoreporoussurfaces,buttheycan
beexpensiveanddisruptivetoretrofit.
10.2.3 Findings on the ‘best’ adaptation for each of
the case study suburbs
Theresearchtestedadaptationoptionsinsixtypes
ofEnglishsuburb.Itispossibletodrawsomesimple
conclusionsbyusingthistypology,butitisnot
possibletogeneralisefromonecasestudyofeach
type,ortomakesuburb-specificrecommendations.
Eachofthecaseshadauniquegeographical
location,population,historyandsetofexperiences
oftheweatherandofcommunityactivitythat
influencedtheresidents’andlocalstakeholders
opinions.However,itispossibletosummarise
thefindingsaboutwhichadaptationoptionswere
effective,feasibleandacceptableineachcasestudy
andtocommentofthese,usinginsightsfromthe
workshops.
Thefiguresbelowofferan‘ataglance’summaryof
whichadaptationoptionsweredeemedeffective,
feasibleandacceptableinthecasestudysuburbs.
Alloftheadaptationsthatappearinthefigures
arealreadydeemedpotentiallyeffectiveforthat
particularcasestudy.Theywerethentestedfor
84
feasibilityandacceptability.Thefiguresemploya
‘trafficlight’system:
• Redindicatesthattheadaptationoptionisnot
feasibleforpracticalreasonsornotacceptable
toresidentsorotherstakeholders(becausefor
example,itistoocostly,unattractive,oroutof
characterwiththesuburb);
• Amberindicatesthateithertherearemixed
viewsaboutthefeasibilityoracceptabilityofthe
adaptation,oruncertainlyaroundimplementation.
Theseadaptationsarenotruledoutbyresidents
andstakeholdersbutthereisambiguityaroundif
andhowtheywouldbeimplemented;
• Greenindicatesthateithertheadaptationhas
alreadybeenimplemented,orislikelytobesoby
residentsand/orotherstakeholders.
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels/Solar
panels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Airsourceheatpump
Shading
Externalsolarshading
Externalshutters
Solarfilm
Cooling&ventilation
Wallgreenery
Lock-openwindows
Droughtresistance
Rainwaterharvesting
Droughtresistantplanting
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Water-proofwindowseals
Tricklevents
Flooding
Flood-proofdoor
Floodgate
Airbrickcovers
Elevateelectricalsockets
Floodskirting
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Flooding
Flooddefenses
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Figure 10.1 Innerhistoricsuburb:StWerburghs
85
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels
Solarpanels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Shading
Externalsolarshading
Internalshutters
Solarfilm
Shadedoutdoorspace
Extendedeaves
Cooling&ventilation
Internalthermalmass
Lock-openwindows
Greenroof
Whiteroofandwalls
Droughtresistance
Rainwaterharvesting
Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Externalrender
Flooding
Flood-proofdoor
Floodgate
Airbrickcovers
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Shadingingreen
space
Blueinfrastructure
Droughtresistanttrees
Communitycoolroom
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Figure 10.2 Medium/highdensitysuburb:UpperHorfield
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels/Solar
panels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
Internalshutters
Solarfilm
Shadedoutdoorspace
Extendeaves
Externalsolarshading
Cooling&ventilation
Whiteroofandwalls
Wallgreenery
Greenroof
Droughtresistance
Rainwaterharvesting
Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Externalrender
Tricklevents
Flooding
Flood-proofdoor
Floodgate
Airbrickcovers
Elevateelectricalsockets
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Shadingingreenspace
Blueinfrastructure
Communitycoolroom
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Allotments
Figure 10.3 Interwarperiodsuburb:Botley,WestOxford
86
House and Garde Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels
Solarpanels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
Externalsolarshading
Internalshutters
Solarfilm
Shadedoutdoorspace
Extendedeaves
Cooling&ventilation
Internalthermalmass
Whiteroofandwalls
Lock-openwindows
Greenroof
Droughtresistance
Underpinhouse
Rainwaterharvesting
system
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Externalrender
Tricklevents
Flooding
Replacenon-porous
driveways
Flood-proofdoor
Floodgate
Airbrickcovers
Elevateelectricalsockets
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Shadingingreenspace
Blueinfrastructure
Communitycoolroom
Drought-resistanttrees
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Flooddefences
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Allotments
Figure 10.4 Pre-War‘gardencity’typesuburb:Summertown,NorthOxford
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels
Solarpanels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Cavitywallinsulation
Shading
Wallgreenery
Greenroof
Shadedoutdoorspace
Externalsolarshading
Internalshutters
Solarfilm
Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
Lock-openwindows
Internalthermalmass
Whiteroofandwalls
Droughtresistance
Underpinhouse
Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Externalrender
Tricklevents
Flooding
Flood-proofdoor
Floodgate
Replacenon-porous
driveways
Airbrickcovers
Elevateelectricalsockets
Replaceinternalflooring
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Blueinfrastructure
Shadingingreenspace
Communitycoolroom
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Flooddefences
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Allotments
Figure 10.5 SocialHousingsuburb:Cheadle,Stockport
87
Overalltheseresultsshowthat:
• Smallscalechanges(suchaswaterbuttsandwall
greenery)aremorelikelytobeimplementedthan
largescalechangestothefabricofthehome.
• Neighbourhoodadaptationandmitigation
measuresareacceptabletocommunities,but
(withtheexceptionofenergyefficientstreet
lightingandsomegreening)areunlikelytobe
implemented.
• Themostcommonlyimplementedhouseholder
measuresarethoselinkedwithresidents’hobbies,
lifestyleandmoneysavingchoices,orhome
improvementprojects:theyarenotimplemented
toresponddirectlytoclimatechange.
10.3 What are the processes that bring about
change in suburban areas? Specifically: what might
motivate residents and other stakeholders to
adapt to present and future climate threats?
Attheoutsetoftheprojectweposedthequestion
‘Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutchangein
suburbanareas?’Astheresearchprogresseditwas
apparentthatverylittlechangewasactuallytaking
place:understandingthisinertiawasanecessary
pre-requisiteforunderstandingwhatmightenable
changeinthefuture.Hence,theconclusionsrelate
tothecurrentcontextforsuburbanadaptation,
beforemovingtotheissueofmotivatingaction.The
researchfoundthat:
• Suburbs are extremely varied entities, and
change within them is complex.Therearevarious
typesofsuburb,housingdifferentcommunities
indifferentlocations,withacomplexrangeof
House and Garden Neighbourhood
Mitigation of future climate
changeSummer Winter
Photovoltaicpanels
Solarpanels
Growfood
Externalwallinsulation
Double/tripleglazing
Roofinsulation
Shading
Externalsolarshading
Internalshutters
Solarfilm
Shadedoutdoorspace
Extendeaves
Cooling&ventilation
Internalthermalmass
Whiteroofandwalls
Wallgreenery
Greenroof
Lock-openwindows
Droughtresistance
Rainwaterharvesting
system
Waterbutt
Extremeweather-windand
drivingrain
Externalrender
Re-pointbrickwork
Woodprotectors
Tricklevents
Maintainguttering
Flooding
Replacenon-porous
driveways
Shading,localisedcooling
anddroughtresistance
Streettrees
Shadingingreenspace
Blueinfrastructure
Communitycoolroom
Flooding
Reconfigurestreetdrainage
Mitigationoffutureclimate
change
Energyefficientstreet
lighting
Allotments
Figure 10.6 CarSuburb:Bramhall,Stockport
88
stakeholdersresponsiblefordifferentaspects
ofthebuiltandnaturalenvironments,andfor
differentclimaterisks.
• At the home and garden scales some mitigation
and adaptation actions are taking place, but
for the majority of residents climate change is
a non-issue.Mostresidents:donotthinkabout
climatechangeintermsofneedingtoadaptto
futureweather;arescepticaloftheextentof
climatechange;welcomeanincreaseinsummer
temperatures;anddonotseetheneedto
prioritisespendingmoneyonadaptations.
• At the neighbourhood scale, very little adaptive
action is taking place.Someadaptivemeasures
arelinkedwithregenerationprojectsorarea-wide
greeningstrategies,butverylittleisexplicitly
relatedtoadaptingtofutureconditions.
• There is no clear process, or delivery mechanism,
for adaptation and/or mitigation at the suburban
neighbourhood scale.Manyofthemosteffective
measuresarenotcurrentlybeingcarriedoutin
existingareasnorislarge-scaleretrofittinglikelyto
occur.
What might motivate residents and other
stakeholders to adapt to present and future
climate threats?
Actioninanumberofkeyareascouldprovide
pathwaysforadaptationinsuburbs.Thefollowing
sectionsummarisesthekeymechanismsthatmight
motivatechange.
• More experience of climate change (gradual
changes and extreme events).Currently,climate
changeisnotamotivatorforchangeinsuburbs.
Householdersfindithardtorelatetobecause
theyhavenotgenerallyexperiencedproblems.As
thepublicarenotoverlyconcerned,theissueis
nothighonthepoliticaladdendaeither.However,
asEnglandexperiencesmoreheatwaves,floods
andextremeweatheritislikelythatrespondingto
theseriskswillbecomeahigherprioritypolitically
andpractically.
• Normalising of simultaneous mitigation and
adaptation practices, and their introduction
into organisations’ long-term planning and
day-to-day activities.Asexperiencesof
climatechangebecome‘real’,andmitigation
andadaptationmeasuresareintroducedthey
arelikelytobecomepartofnormaldecision
makingprocessesforhouseholdersandother
stakeholders.Asadaptationsbecomemore
visible,theyarelikelytobecomemoreacceptable.
Forexample,somelocalauthoritiesarebeginning
tointroduceadaptationmeasuresaspart
ofcyclesoflong-termplanningandroutine
management.Adaptationisbeingbuiltintostreet
andparkmaintenanceprogrammeswherecosts
aremarginal,e.g.whereroadsurfacinghasto
bedoneanyway.Majorretrofittingmeasures
suchasimplementingSUDsneedtobebuiltinto
conventionalsystematiclong-termplanningand
maintenance,e.g.streetresurfacingactivities.
Localauthoritymaintenancethattakesinto
accountadaptationcouldachieveeffective
changeoverthelong-term.
• A better understanding of the multiple pathways,
involving a range of stakeholders, that could
deliver effective suburban adaptation.Thereis
nosingle‘process’ofeffectiveadaptation.Itis
likelythatacombinationofindividual,community,
government-led,andpartnershipactionswill
berequired.Householdersarelikelytobe
responsibleforimprovementstotheclimate
comfortoftheirindividualproperties.Partnership
approacheswillberequired,forexample,in
managingfloodingrisk,becauseofthemultiple
ownershipofinfrastructureandthecomplexity
ofmanagingsurfacewater.Thepotentialfor
communityactionalsoneedstobemaximised.
Somelocalauthoritiesareheavilyengagedin
communitycapacitybuildingactivitiesforlow-
carbonprojects,andbuildingontheseexisting
activitiesandcommunitygroupscouldbean
effectivewayofintegratingadaptationactivityinto
neighbourhoods.
• Prioritising resources for adaptation.Currently
bothhouseholdersandlocalandnational
governmentarenotprioritisingresourcesfor
climatechangemitigationoradaptationto
effectivelyadaptsuburbs.Manyofthechanges
neededarecostly,andhavemedium-longterm
benefits.
89
• Clearer responsibilities for adaptation.At
thesuburbanscaleoneofthekeyproblemsin
effectivemitigationliesinunderstandingwhois
responsibleforchange.Intermsoffloodrisk,in
someplacesthisisleadingtoparalysis.Thereis
confusionoverthescaleatwhichtheriskshould
bemanaged,theownershippatternsinsuburbs,
andmisunderstandingsaboutthenatureofrisk
insurance.Theintroductionofneighbourhood
planning,orplace-basedcommunalactioncould
helptounravelsomeofthesecomplexities,but
withoutsignificantclarificationvariousagencies
inmanysuburbswilldonothing,andleave
neighbourhoodsvulnerable.
• Communicating climate change and its risks
effectively for different audiences.Different
actorsinvolvedin,oraffectedby,suburban
adaptationengagewithitindifferentways.
Hence,framingchangestohomesandlocal
neighbourhoodspurelyintermsof‘climatechange’
and‘risk’isnotalwayseffectiveinmotivating
action.Stakeholderswiththeresponsibilityfor
informingthepublicaboutclimatechangerisks
willneedtofindeffectivewaysofcommunicating.
‘Climatechange’messagescancreateresistance
toaction,sohouseholdersmayneedtobe
engagedthroughmessagesaboutthepractical
andimmediatebenefitsofinstallingadaptation
measures,andthecost-effectivenessand‘quality
oflife/comfort’benefits.
• Ensuring practical information about adaptations
is communicated at the right time and by
trusted people/organisations.Itisimportantthat
householdersgettherightadviceorinformation
whentheymaybeabouttomakechangesto
theirpropertiese.g.whentheyfirstmoveintoa
newhome,orwhentheyaredoingotherhome
improvements,whentheyareapplyingforplanning
permissionorbuildingregulationapproval.This
includesinformationaboutGovernmentgrantsand
schemes.Itisalsoimportantthatfrontlinecontact
points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,Planningand
BuildingRegulationstaff,andutilitiescanhelpwith
accurateinformation.However,providinggeneric
adviceisnotalwayseffective,asmanyadaptations
areproperty-specific.Inthesecasesappropriate
specialists(architects,builders)needtobeeasily
availabletohouseholds.
• Ensuring adaptation is embedded in planning
policies and practices and building regulations.
Planningpoliciesandpracticesandbuilding
regulationsneedtoensurethatfutureclimatic
conditionsareconsideredwhenchangestothe
physicalenvironmentofsuburbsareproposed.
Neitherhavemuchpowerinpro-activelybringing
aboutchange:buttheycouldbemorepowerfulin
stoppingfutureproblems.
• Learning from places where neighbourhood
action (and/or adaptive action) is successful.
Althoughcasesoffullyadaptedneighbourhoods
arerare,thereareexamplesofgoodpracticein
termsofneighbourhoodlevelactionthatcould
beappliedtothesuburbancontext.Thereare
alsoexamplesofbuiltenvironmentsolutionsfrom
countrieswithclimatessimilartothatprojectedfor
Englandthatcouldinformlocalstrategieshere.
• Ensuring that central government-controlled
mechanisms such as grants and subsidies are
appropriate to deliver adaptation.Government
initiativesandfundingiswelcomed,butpoorly
understoodbymosthouseholders.Itisimportant
thatinitiativesareappropriatelyframed(see
findingsaboutcommunicationabove),andsimply
administered.
Conclusions
TheSNACCresearchprojecthasansweredsome
keyquestionsaboutthefutureofEnglishsuburbs
andhowtheymightadapttocurrentandfuture
climateconditions.Ithasunearthedsomedifficult
truthsaboutthecapacityforstakeholdersliving
in,andresponsiblefor,suburbstorespondto
climatechange.Ithasalsoexploredsomepotential
pathwaysforprogress:thesenowneedtobetested
andvalidatedovertime.
Overall,theresearchhasshownthattheresponse
capacityinanygivensuburbisbothcomplexand
changing.However,aclearmessageisthatto
motivatepeopleandachieveprogressapositive
visionofchangehastobeoffered.Residents’are
understandablyemotionallyandfinanciallyattached
totheirhomes,andmostvaluehighlythecharacter
oftheirneighbourhoods.Changethatismotivated
90
byvisionsofamoreliveable,attractive(andresilient)
future,andthatlinkstopeoples’interestsandvalues,
hasabetterchanceofengagingandmotivating
themtoactthanavisiondrivenbythelanguageof
climatechangeandrisk.
91
The Hedonic Pricing Method
Thehedonicpricemethodconsidershousing
acompositecommodity,comprisingthe
neighbourhood(includingaccessibilityandsocio-
economicprofile)andenvironmentalcharacteristics
ofthelocality,alongwiththestructural
characteristicsoftheproperty.Thisisaverypopular
methodinthefieldsofreal-estateresearch(e.g.
Zuehlke,1987;Watkins,2001;PryceandGibb,2006)
andenvironmentaleconomics(e.g.Dayetal.,2007;
ZabelandKiel,2000;Poweetal1995).Thedata
requirementsofahedonicmodelincludealargeand
sufficientlydiversesampleofhousingtransactions
suchthatallattributesareobservedandindifferent
combinationsandquantities.
ThepricePofthehousem,inthekthresidential
locationisgivenby:
Pmk=Pm(Sk,Nk,Ek) (1)
WhereSmkarethestructuralcharacteristicsofthe
house,Nkaretheneighbourhoodcharacteristics
andEkaretheenvironmentalcharacteristics.From
equation1wecanderivetheimplicitpriceforany
givenattributeoramenity.Forexample,theimplicit
priceofhigherenergyefficiencywouldbethe
additionalamountofmoneythatwillbepaidfora
housingpackagewithamarginalincreaseiny.Modelestimationthenyieldsthepricediscountorpremium
associatedwiththeeffect.
Data
WeemployeddataforthewholeofEnglandfromthe
EnglishHousingConditionSurvey(EHCS),consisting
of15,515householdobservationsfor2005-06.The
surveyinvolvesaphysicalinspectionofpropertyby
professionalsurveyors,providinganaccuratepicture
ofthetypeandconditionofhousinginEngland,the
peoplelivingthere,andtheirviewsonhousingand
theirneighbourhoods.
Thereisawealthofrelevantinformationavailable
suchas,tenure,structuralcharacteristicsofeach
house,localenvironmentalattributes,accessibility
andsocio-economiccharacteristicsofthelocalarea.
OneimportantpointforHPmodellingisthatthesale
TheSNACCprojectdevelopedaseriesofadaptation
andmitigationstrategiesthatwouldrequire
modifications/changestoindividualproperties
andtheneighbourhoodwithinwhichtheproperty
islocated(WP3).Thispartoftheresearchaims
todeterminewhichneighbourhoodadaptation
features,houseenergyconsumptionattributesand
environmentalcharacteristicsarecapitalisedintothe
valueofresidentialpropertyintheUK.Tothateffect
HedonicPricing(HP)modelsaredevelopedanalysing
theUKhousingmarket.
NotallofthestrategiesorelementsinWP3can
beanalysedtodeterminetheimpactuponprice,
eitherbecausetheusabledatasetssimplydonot
includetheattribute,thetechnologyistoonew(for
example,communitycoolroom)orthechangeistoo
subtletosignificantlyinfluenceprice(forexample,
elevationofelectricalsockets).However,through
reviewofexistingliteratureandanalysisofextensive
databasesofpropertytransactions/valueswethrow
somelightontheimpactonhousepricesofstreet
trees,gardens,accessibilitytoopenspace,flooding,
neighbourhoodcharacteristicsandlayout,and
physicaladaptationsthatimproveenergyefficiency
(insulation,doubleglazing,solarpanelsetc).
Brieflyfromexistingliteraturewefindevidencethata
numberofstrategiesproposedinWP3canpositively
influencehouseprice.Forexamplefactorsaffecting
housepricepositivelyareenergyefficiency(Brounen
andKok,2010),thepresenceoftrees(Willisand
Garrod,1992),andaccesstoopenspace(Dehring
andDunse,2006).Onesignificantnegativefactoris
flooding.Previousstudiessuggestthatproperties
locatedinafloodplain(andthesubsequentfearof
flooddamage)arevaluedlowerthancomparable
onesoutsideofafloodplain,(MacDonaldetal.1987;
SkantzandStrickland,1987;Donnelly,1989;Speyrer
andRagas1991).Thesignificanceofneighbourhood
layoutandstreetconfigurationhasbeenless
conclusive.Forexample,MatthewsandTurnbull
(2007)testfeaturesofNewUrbansim,specifically,
neighbourhoodcompositionandstreetlayout.They
concludethatitdoesnotnecessarilyhaveuniversal
appealtohousepurchasers.
Withinthisempiricalstudywefocusupontheimpact
ofenergyefficiency(SAP)rating,insulation,double
glazing,heatingsystem,gardensandaccessibilityto
openspace.
Determining the impact on property values of a range of adaptation options: developing a hedonic pricing model
Appendix A:
92
priceisnotavailableinthisdata,butavaluationof
thepropertythatisemployedasaproxytotheprice.
Furthermore,theenergyratingdefinitionusedisthe
UKGovernment’sStandardAssessmentProcedure
(SAP)forenergyratingofbuildings.
Findings
Asemi-logspecificationisselectedinourmodels,
sinceitisthemostwidelyusedintheliterature
providinganexcellentgoodness-of-fittothedata.
Weestimatethefollowingeconometricmodel:
(2)
WhereLnPisthenaturallogarithmoftheprice/value
fordwellingiinthejthhousingmarket.Sisavectorofthestructuralcharacteristicsofthehousei.Nisavectoroftheneighbourhoodandsocioeconomic
characteristics.Eisavectoroftheenvironmentalof
thedwelling.
Alltherelevantvariablesareincludedinthe
modelling.Thesemi-logmodelhadagoodoverall
fit(R2=0.76).Mostofthecoefficientswereofthe
correctsignandstatisticallysignificant.Statistical
testsshowedthepresenceofheteroscedasticity.
White’s(1980)standarderrorcorrectionwas
employedtocorrectforthis.
Themodelproducesestimatesofneighbourhood
adaptationcharacteristics,suchasenergy
consumptionattributesandenvironmental
characteristicsthatarecapitalisedintothevalue
ofresidentialpropertyintheUK.Someoftheseare
presentedinFigureA1,asmonetaryvaluesorimplicit
prices.
The£75.9inFigureA1referstothevalueplaced
inimprovingtheSAPratingofahouseby1.The
effectivenessofinsulation,asperceivedbythe
residents,providesapremiumof£4328.Theold
heatingsystemandperceivedair-pollutioninthearea
seemtodecreasehousevaluesby£1769and£3291
respectively.
Thegreenspaceandgardendensitydummy
variablesneedtobeviewedwithrespecttotheirbase
categories.Thebasecategoryforgreenspaceis
“over50%inthearea”.Weseeasignificantdecrease
inhousevaluesformostcategorieswithlessgreen
space.Similarly,comparedwithabasecaseofa
gardenof100-250sqmsperdwelling,largergardens
commandasignificantpremiumof£17,591over
thebasecategorywhilehousevaluesarenegatively
affectedbysmallergardensizetothebasecategory
(whentheeffectisstatisticallysignificant).
Thesefindingsofcoursewouldhaveimplications
formoreradicalformsofneighbourhoodadaptation
involvingintensificationandraisingofdensities.
Itisclearfromboththeliteraturereviewandfromthe
empiricalanalysisusingEHCSthatarangeofelements
withintheadaptationandmitigationstrategiescould
beexpectedtoimpactonhousingvalues,although
notalloftheelementsconsideredelsewhereinthis
researchcanbetestedandnotallwouldbeexpected
tohavedetectableeffects.Someoftheeffects
asmeasuredfrom2005-06datamayactuallybe
greaterifmeasuredonmorerecentdata,insofar
aspublicattentionto,andinformationavailability
about,domesticenergyefficiency(inparticular)has
increased.Generallythemeasuresassessedherehave
beenshowntohaveapositiveeffectonhousevalues,
althoughthiswouldnotbethecaseforintensification.
Thismaybetakentobeamotivatorforhouseholders
toinvestinsuchmeasures,ortosupporttheir
generalintroduction,althoughwhethersufficientlyto
inducethemtomakeasignificantcashinvestmentis
anotherquestion.Itshouldofcourseberemembered
that,incasessuchasenergyefficiency,thevalue
enhancementislooselyassociatedwithaprospective
savinginannualenergybills.
Figure A1:
Examplesof
MonetaryValues
ofEnergyand
Environmental
Attributes
Variable Marginal Implicit Price (£)
Energyefficiency(SAP2005)rating 76**
Residentsperceivetheareaaspolluted -3,291***
Ageofheatingsystemover12years -1,770**
Highperceivedeffectivenessofinsulation 4,329***
Greenspacebetween0-10%inthearea
Greenspacebetween10-25%inthearea
Greenspacebetween25-50%inthearea
Greenspacebetween50-100%inthearea
1132
-3,242***
-3,883***
Basecategory
Gardendensity0sqmsperdwelling
Gardendensity1-25sqmsperdwelling
-20,136***
2,039
Gardendensity25-50sqmsperdwelling
Gardendensity50-100sqmsperdwelling
Gardendensity100-250sqmsperdwelling
Gardendensityover250sqmsperdwelling
-8,673***
-3,720***
Basecategory
17,591***
***statisticallysignificantat99%level,**statisticallysignificantat95%level
93
UKCP09datahadtobespatiallyandtemporally
downscaledviatheUKCP09WeatherGenerator
inordertoassessclimatechangeimpactthrough
DECoRuM-Adapt.Spatiallyeachneighbourhoodis
representedbya25kmsquaregridandtheimpacts
aresimulatedusingweatherdata(currentand
future)thatisassignedtoeachindividualgridsquare.
Temporally,DECoRuM-Adaptassessesimpact
usingthechangeinmeanmonthlytemperature
andmeanmonthlysolarirradiation.Thesimulation
processofDECoRuM-AdaptcanbeseeninFigure
B2wherealldatacollectedinFigureB1issimulated
usingthevaryingclimateinputs.Theresultsarethe
impacts,e.g.annualCO2emissions,overheating
potential.Fromtheanalysisofthevariousimpacts,
anassessmentofthecausesofoverheatingand
changeinCO2emissionsleadstothedevelopment
ofadaptationoptionsandultimatelyadaptation
packages.Thesechanges(adaptations)aremade
tothehomesandre-runthoughtheclimate
projectionsresultinginnewimpactoutcomes.
DECoRuM©(DomesticEnergy,Carboncounting
andcarbonReductionModel)isaGIS-basedtoolkit
forcarbonemissionsreductionplanningwiththe
capabilitytoestimatecurrentenergy-related
CO2emissionsandeffectivenessofmitigation
strategiesinexistingUKdwellings,aggregatingthe
resultstoastreet,districtandcitylevel(Gupta,
2008;Gupta,2009).Theaggregatedmethodof
simulationandmap-basedpresentationallowsthe
resultstobescaledupforlargerapplicationand
assessment.FortheSNACCproject,DECoRuM
wasfurtherdevelopedasDECoRuM-Adapt©to
analysetheimpactofclimatechangeonenergyuse
andcomfort.DECoRuM-Adaptusesdownscaled
climatedatafromUKCP09toestimateprobabilistic
futureoverheatingpotentialandtheeffectiveness
ofadaptationstrategiesformodelleddwellings.To
informthemodel,actualhomeandneighbourhood
characteristicsaregatheredfrommaps,on-
siteassessmentandliteraturedescribinghome
characteristicsbasedonageandtypology.The
backgroundcalculationsofDECoRuMareperformed
byBREDEM-12andSAP2009bothofwhichare
dynamicallylinkedtocreatethemodelandperform
theanalysis.FigureB1liststhecategoriesand
numberofparametersthatBREDEM-12requires.
Thereisawealthofstatisticalinformationthatcan
beexportedincludingannualCO2emissions,running
costsandoverheatingpotential.
Developing DECoRuM-Adapt© (a Domestic Energy, Carbon counting and carbon Reduction Model) to analyse the impact of climate change on energy use and comfort
Category used for data reduction Numbers of parameters Percentage of parameters
Datacommontoalldwellings 50 52.7%
Dataderivedfrombuiltform 5 5.3%
Dataderivedfromage 18 19.0%
Datacollectedforindividualdwellings 22 23.0%
Total 95 100%
Figure B1ListofcategoriesusedfordatareductioninDECoRuMandDECoRuM-Adapt(Gupta,2008)
Appendix B:
94
DECoRuM-Adaptisarelativelyquickmethodforthe
creationofmapsindicatingoverallneighbourhood
responsetoclimatechangeandadaptation.
Thesemapsareultimatelyusefulforpresentation
andcommunicationofprobabilisticrisk,energy
savingpotentialandeffectivenessofadaptation
fordecision-makerssuchashomeownersand
localcouncilmembers.BeyondDECoRuM-Adapt,
moredetailedenergymodellingandsimulation
isperformedonanumberofselecthomesusing
IES’ModelITandApacheSimrespectively.These
simulationsareperformedtoconfirmresultsfrom
DECoRuM-Adaptandtounderstandaselected
house-by-houseresponsetoclimatechangeand
adaptationeffectiveness.Anotabledifferencein
thetwosimulatorsishowclimatedataisprocessed.
UKCP09datahadtobespatiallyandtemporally
downscaledviatheUKCP09WeatherGenerator
inordertoassessclimatechangeimpactthrough
bothsimulationplatforms,howeverthetworequire
differentscalesofspatialandtemporaldetail.
Temporally,DECoRuM-Adaptassessesimpactusing
thechangeinmeanmonthlydatawhereas,IESuses
awiderangeofhourlyweatherdataincludingwind
speed.Spatially,thedifferencerepresentsclimate
detailona25kmgridsquareanda5kmgridsquare.
Thedifferencebetweenthetwospatialscalescan
beseenonthemapsofthecasestudycitiesbelow
(FigureB3).
Figure B2 ProcessofDECoRuM-Adapt(originalDECoRuManalysisislimitedtotheboxeswithwhitebackgroundshowever,
mitigationmeasuresareappliedandtheprocessisre-run.)
Figure B3 Mapsshowingthe25kmgridsquare(orange)inrelationtothe5kmgridsquares(purple)forBristol,Oxfordand
Stockport.Theredpin-pointindicatesthelocationofthesixcasestudyneighbourhoods(imageadaptedfromDEFRA,
2011).
95
differencesbetweentheinkbasedvisualisationand
themethodusedbytheoriginalVEPsapplication
istheuseoftheWEBGLspecificationwhichallows
interactionwith3Dcontentinthewebbrowser
withouttheneedforuserstoinstallanyadditional
software.Thescenecompileralsogivesmore
scopeforaddingsurfacefeaturessuchasroadsand
pavementsintheterrainmodelandthendynamically
manipulatingthosefeaturesusingscriptsinaHTML
webpage.
Technical summary
InkGISisacloudbaseGeographicInformation
System(GIS)thatisadatabaseapplicationwhich
storesgeospatialfeaturessuchaspointslines
andpolygonsaswellastheirassociatedtextual
andnumericattributes.FeaturesstoredinaGIS
formatcanthenbeaccessedwithspatialqueries
suchas“whereisthenearest?”.Itrunswithinaweb
browserdevelopedusingHTML5andJavascript.
Thegeospatialdata(2Dline,pointsandpolygons)is
storedusingtheopensourcedatabaseMySQLusing
anApache/PHPwebserver.
TheVRtool-kitisusedtocreateneighbourhood
modelsbydrawingandthenextrudinglinesalong
thesurveytoincisethemintoanexistingterrain
model.X3Dwereplacedonthesurfacebymarking
thelocationsonaGISlayer.Trees,bushes,shelters
andstreetfurnitureweremadeusingthefree
opensourceBlendermodeler(www.blender.org).
Housing(three-dimensionalmodels)wereproduced
usingtoolswhichgeneratebuildinggeometries
algorithmicallyfromfootprintpolygons.
The3DformatssupportedareX3DandWebGL
whicharenativelysupportedinFirefox,Chrome,
Safari,Opera.IE8&IE9aresupportedusingInstant
ThetoolcreatedintheSNACCprojectisaGISbased
visualisationcapableofcreatinginteractiveand
accurateaspectsofsmallersectionsof3Durban
environmentsthatcanbeaccessed,analysedand
exploredbymultipleuserssimultaneouslyusinga
Webbrowser.
TheaimoftheSNACCvisualisationwasto
developacommonandtransferablewebbased
visualisationsystemthatenablespeopletoview
andanalyseproposedadaptationoptionsinorder
tounderstandtheireffectsontheexistinghousing
andneighbourhoodandmakedecisionsabout
theiracceptability.Thesystemhasthepotential
toimprovefuturepublicparticipationbymaking
informationaboutpotentialadaptationoptionsmore
accessibleandeasiertounderstandforthegeneral
public.
Theadoptedapproachwastouseaninteractive
three-dimensional(3D)virtualreality(VR)
visualisationtoenabletheviewertograsphighly
complexinformationwithouttheneedfortraining.
Thiswaytheusercanexperienceboththepotential
adaptationsandassesstheiracceptabilityandvisual
impactontheexistingenvironment.Moreover,since
thesystemisassociatedwithGISmaps,itallows
foranaccurateunderstandingoftheextentofthe
changesastheyhavebeenrecordedandentered
usingaGISdatabase.
VEPs and SNACC tool
TheSNACCprojectvisualisationofclimate
changeadaptationoptionsisbasedontheVEPS
(VirtualEnvironmentalPlanningSystem),which
wasanInterregIIIBfundedEuropeanproject.This
systemhasbeencustomisedandadaptedforthe
visualisationofsuburbanadaptations.Themain
Developing a computer visualisation of adapted suburbs
VEPs SNACC
LiDARdata
Aerialphotography
VRMLformat
DetailedCADand3DMaxmodels
Additionalsoftware
Personalcomputerusers
WebGISsystem(INK)
MastermapandDTMdata
X3DformatofVirtualreality
Photorealistic,interactivemodels
Opensourcesoftware
Awebsite
Figure C1ThedifferencesbetweenVEPsandtheSNACCprojectvisualisation
Appendix C:
96
Reality,anopensourceX3Dplug-indevelopedatthe
FraunhoferInstitute.
RenderingofX3Dwithinthebrowserisdoneusing
X3DOM(http://www.x3dom.org).Thishasbeen
developedattheFraunhoferinstituteandisfreely
availableasopensource),aJavascriptlibraryfor
browsingX3Dcontentinbrowserswhichsupport
WEBGL(http://www.khronos.org/webg).Browsers
currentlysupportingWEBGLareChrome16+and
Firefox10+.
Key Findings
Aninitialpilotstudywasusedtogatherthefeedback
fromseveralgroupsofstakeholdersinordertomeet
theirneedsandstimulatetheirengagementinthe
researchprocess.Theresultofthisprocesswas
stakeholderdrivenoptimisationofthefinalsystem.
Basedonanalysisoftheoutcomesfromthepilot
studydetailedvirtualneighbourhoodenvironments
withinformationsuchastypesofpaving,species
oftreesandshrubswerecreatedforthreecase
studyareas.Eachcasestudyvisualisationalso
includedpotentialchangestohouseelevations,
whichweremoredesirablethansketchy,simplified
imagesofadaptations.Althoughitisrecognised
thatvisualisationoptimisedforthewebtendsto
offerlowerlevelsofdetailthanCADgenerated3D
models,inthisinvestigationanattempthasbeen
madetoachievethehighestpossiblelevelofdetail
inx3denvironmentssothatendorsabledecisions
areenhancedbyphoto-realismanditispossible
toassessarangeofpotentialinterpretationsby
stakeholders.
Forthetwocasestudies(BotleyinOxfordand
StockportinManchester)aninvestigationwas
conductedtoexplorepublicperceptionsand
usefulnessofthistypeofvisualisation.Short
questionnairesusingLiker-likeseven-pointscales
wereemployedtodeterminewhetherphotorealistic
virtualrealityrepresentationsareregardedas
accuratemeansofcommunicatingneighbourhood
adaptationsandtoassesstheusefulnessofthis
toolintheconsultationprocess.Questionnaire
responseswereanalysedusingtheSPSSsoftware
package.
Theresponsesrevealedstrongpreferencesfor
more,ratherthanless,informationaboutthe
adaptations.Thisisprimarilybecausepeopleneed
informationtomakeinformeddecisionsabout
investmentsintheirhomesandneighbourhoods.
Membersofthepublicalsoprefertounderstand
thepossibleextentofchanges,andhavesome
seriousconcernsabouttheimpactofadaptation
options.Overall,themajorityofparticipantswere
‘fairlysatisfied’withthevisualisationasatooland
itsabilitytoshowtheproposedchangestoexisting
neighbourhoods.
Figure C2 VirtualenvironmentofoneoftheBristol
casestudies,showinganeighbourhoodbeforeandafter
adaptation.Modelsreproducedunderthetermsofthe
Contractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurvey
DatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil,Maps
©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance
Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice
97
thefuturerisksofclimatechange.TheFiguredoes
notprovideadefinitivelistforadaptingallsuburbs,
butreflectsoptionswitharangeofimpacts,costs
andbenefitsappropriatefortheSNACCstudy.Only
adaptationswhichofferedeitheraneutralorpositive
impactontheproductionofgreenhousegaseswere
considered.
FigureD1belowdetailsthemasterlistofadaptations
whichwereidentifiedasappropriateforthe
neighbourhoodtypesselectedinthecasestudies.
Notalloftheadaptationswereappropriateforallof
thesuburbs,buteachoftheadaptationspresented
belowareappropriateforatleastoneofthem.
Theoptionswerechosentoaddresseither,the
mitigationoffutureclimatechange,oradaptationto
Potential adaptation and mitigation options to be tested in SNACC
Elementofbuilt
environment
beingadapted
MeasuresforAdapting
toimpactsfrom,and
mitigatingfutureclimate
change
Climaticchangethat
theadaptationis
respondingto
Reduceclimatechange?
How
Effectthattheadaptationhas
Houseandgarden(individualdwellings)
WALLS Addexternalshutters,
shadesorcanopiesto
walls
Heat,increased
solarradiationonthe
surface
Yes,reducespotential
coolingloads
Increasesshadingandcools
propertiesinsideandout
Increasewallalbedo:
applyhighlyreflective
materialorcoatingto
reducesolarabsorption
Heat,increased
solarradiationonthe
surface
Yes,hasbeenfound
toreducelocalisedair
temperatureswhen
undertakenacross
neighbourhoods
Reducessolarabsorption
tocoolinternalandexternal
areas
Introducethermalmass:
e.g.interiorwalls1)
concreteblockswith
plasterfinish2)exposed
stoneorconcrete
Heat,overheatingin
buildingsleadingto
possibleincreased
energyuse
Yes,thermalmass
appropriatelyplacedcan
bothreduceheating
energyuseandcooling
energyuse.Thermalmass,
inappropriatelyplacedcan
haveanadverseimpact
Thisisachievedthrough
theabilityofthermalmass,
inheavyweightfloorsand
walls,toabsorbinternal
heatgainsduringhot
weather,helpingstabilise
theinternaltemperature
andreducecoolingdemand.
Theabsorbedheatmust
bereleasedandshouldbe
ventilatedatnight.
Installverticalgreenery
andplanting
Heat Yes Cancoolthebuilding
insideandimproveair
quality.Inwarmerweather,
greenwallsactlikegreen
roofsbyreducingthe
surfacetemperatureofa
conventionalwallthrough
evapotranspirationand
shading.Wallsthatuse
irrigationandhydroponic
techniquesprovideadditional
coolingthroughevaporation.
Airbrickcovers/
automaticairbrick
covers(smartairbrick)
Flood None Preventswateringressduring
flooding
Appendix D:
98
Externalwallweather
proofing
1)thermallyefficient
externalrenders
2)rubbertanking
3)waterproofrender
4)Repointbrickworkon
externalwalls.
Internalwalls
5)sand/cementrender
mixwithawaterproof
additive
6)drylineinternalwalls
7)replacetimberstud
walls,whichactasa
waterreservoirwith
masonry/blockwork
8)internallyand
externally:apply
specialfinishestowalls
(anticorrosionprimers,
polyurethanetopcoats)
Flood,storms,extreme
weather
Yes,thermalefficiency
producedfrominternal
andexternalrenders
reducesenergy
reduction
Protectswallsfrom
stormdamage,avoids
waterpenetrationand
damagetomortarand
brickwork.
Floodresistantcavityfill
insulation
Storms,flood Yes,reducesbuilding's
thermalconductivity
reducingenergy
demand
Waterresistant:
nonwaterresistant
insulationwouldbe
damagedinafloodand
needreplacement
Elevateexternaldoors,
Fitrisinghingessodoors
canberemoved
Floodresistanceand
resilience
No Stopswateringress
initially:removing
internaldoorsinthe
eventoffloodingress
increasesresilience.
Flashflooddoors,flood
gates
Floodresistanceand
resilience
No Stopswateringress
ROOF Addgreen/brownroof
toregulatetemperature
Heat:(couldalsoslow
waterrunoffandreduce
floodingifdonewith
groupsofproperties
cumulatively,notin
isolation)
Yes Increaseslocalised
cooling,reducesrain
waterrunoff.Increases
CO2absorptionand
evapotranspirationto
reduceurbanheatisland
(UHI).
Regulatestemperature
inbuilding.Reduces
solarheatgainin
buildings(reducedheat
penetrationinbuildings).
Increaseroofalbedo:
applyhighlyreflective
materialorcoatingto
reducesolarabsorption
Heat,Increasedsolar
radiationonthesurface
Yes,hasbeenfound
toreducelocalisedair
temperatureswhen
undertakenacross
neighbourhoods
Reducessolar
absorptiontocool
internalandexternal
areas.
99
Insulateroof Heat(andcold) Yes,reducesbuilding's
thermalconductivity
reducingenergy
demand
Improvesthermal
performance:reduces
heatloss,cancontribute
tooverheating
mitigationinsummer
andreduceenergybills
Installphotovoltaic/solar
thermalpanels(water
heating)
Energy,increasedsolar
radiationonthesurface
Yes Futureproofing,to
providesustainable
renewableenergy
Extendedeaves Increasedrainfalland
extremeweather
None:some(slight
potentialwherecooling
energyisusedand
extendedeavesare
abletoprovidesome
shading)
Limitsraincontactwith
externalwallsurfaces.
Canalsobesourceof
shading.
WINDOWS Installwindowsthatlock
opentoaidventilation
Heat Yes,replaces
mechanicalventilation
Allowsuser:controlled
naturalventilation
Low:e-solarcontrol
glazing,doubleortriple
pane
Heat,increasedsolar
radiationonthesurface
Yes,reducesheat
demandinwinter
Reducesheatloss
duringthewinterand
overheatinginthe
summer.Greaternoise
reductionandbetter
heatabsorption
Install solar shading:
Horizontalorvertical
externalshading
Shutters
Interpaneshading
Solarfilm
Manufacturedshading
(solarcontrolforinterior
orexterior:blinds,
shutters,awnings,
louveredoverhangs,
etc.)(possible
opportunitytointegrate
solarrenewables)
Heat,increasedsolar
radiationonthesurface
Yes,reducespotential
coolingloads
Mitigatesoverheating
potential
FLOORS Introducethermal
mass:e.g.floors1)tiling
overconcretefloor
withinsulationbelow,
2)exposedstoneor
concrete
Heat,overheatingin
buildingsleadingto
possibleincreased
energyuse
Yes,thermalmass
appropriatelyplacedcan
bothreduceheating
energyuseandcooling
energyuse.Thermal
mass,inappropriately
placedcanhavean
adverseimpact
Thisisachievedthrough
theabilityofthermal
mass,inheavyweight
floorsandwalls,to
absorbinternalheat
gainsduringhot
weather,helping
stabilisetheinternal
temperatureandreduce
coolingdemand.The
absorbedheatmustbe
releasedandshouldbe
ventilatedatnight.
100
Treatfloorsforflooding:
e.g.sealfloors.Convert
suspendedfloorsto
solidfloorse.g.with
hardnonporousflooring
(concrete/tiles)
Flooding None:some(thermal
masscouldbe
incorporatedhere)
Reducestheimpactof
flooding
HEATING,COOLING,
POWER,VENTILATION
SYSTEMSand
APPLIANCES
Installheatpumps Heat(andcold)
Potentialtoreduces
winterheatingenergy
requirement
Yes,potentially Potentialtocoolthe
home(principlecanbe
usedwithground,air
andwater)
Installtricklevents Heat(reduceinternal
heatandhumidity)
Yes,reduces
potentialcoolingand
dehumidificationloads
Reduceshumidityinthe
home,mitigatingmould
growth
Elevateelectrical
sockets/wiring,
meteringandboiler
Flood No Reducestheimpactand
costofflooding
WATERandGARDEN Planttreeswithlarge
canopies:usingcaution
nottocompromise
buildingstability
Heat,increasedsolar
radiationonthesurface
Yes,reducespotential
coolingloads
Providesshadingtocool
thegardenandadjacent
house
Installrainwater
harvestinginthegarden
Reducedsummer
rainfall
No Makesefficientuseofa
limitedresource
Droughtresistantplants Reducedsummer
rainfall
No Adding10%greenspace
(inacentralarea)kept
temperaturesator
below1961:90baseline
(ASCCUE,2012)
Growfood Summertime
temperatureincrease
andSummertime
meanprecipitation
reduction(waterstress
butincreasedgrowing
season)
Yes,reducescarbon
footprintoffood
Maximisesthebenefitof
longergrowingseason
andreducesfoodmiles.
Remove/reduce
nonporousgarden
surfaces.Replace
withanalternative:
grass-reinforcement
concreteorplastic
mesh,gravel,brick(with
drainagechannels),
cellularpaving,orlawn
orvegetableplots
Wintermean
precipitationincrease
:Increasedflood
vulnerabilityandwater
ingressfordwellings
No Theuseofporous
surfacesqualifyaspart
ofSUDS.Theprinciple
istomimicnatural
drainage,reduceflow
fromhardimpermeable
surfacesandreduce
floodrisk.
101
NEIGHBOURHOODADAPTATIONS;street,parks,andpublicspaceandamenities
Measures for
Adapting to
impacts from,
and mitigating
future climate
change
Climatic
change that
the adaptation
is responding
to
Climate
change hazard
Climatic
change impact
Direct climate
change
mitigation?
Effect that the
adaptation
has
How effective
is the
measure?
Addnewgreen
space:Plant
treeswith
largecanopies
(onstreetsand
inpublicopen
spaces)
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings,
highurban
temperatures
leadingto
possible
increased
energyuse
YES Provides
shadingfrom
sun
Aparkwill
coolthearea
equivalent
tothesize
ofthepark
surrounding
it.(ASCCUE,
2012)
Plantheat,
droughtand
pollution
tolerantplants
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings,
highurban
temperatures
leadingto
possible
increased
energyuse
YES Provides
attractiveand
functional
greenery
eveninhotter
weather,which
givesshade
Provides
addedcooling
inhotter
weather
(difficultto
quantify
generically)
Plantheat,
droughtand
pollution
tolerantplants
DROUGHT Summertime
mean
precipitation
reduction
Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Waterstress
and/ordrought
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
dwellings
YES Provides
attractiveand
functional
greenery
thatuses
lesswater,
andstabilises
soils.Whilst
retainingwater
andslowing
runoffinflood
conditions.
Minimises
plants’
exposure
towindsto
reducethe
amountof
waterlost
throughthe
plantleaves
andthrough
evaporation
fromthesoil.
Modelling
forGreater
Manchester
showedthata
10%increase
ingreencover
canresultina
5%reduction
insurface
waterrun-off
(ASCCUE,
2012).
102
Plantheat,
droughtand
pollution
tolerantplants
AIR
POLLUTION
Summertime
mean
precipitation
reduction
Increaseddust
pollution
YES Toprovide
attractiveand
functional
greenerythat
canwithstand
increasesin
aitpollution
(photochemical
smogand
VOCS)
Inurbanareaswith
100%treecover(i.e.,
contiguousforest
stands),shortterm
improvementsinair
quality(onehour)from
pollutionremovalby
treeswereashighas
15%forozone,14%for
sulphurdioxide,13%
forparticulatematter,
8%fornitrogendioxide,
and0.05%forcarbon
monoxide(Nowak,2006).
Addgreenery:
tofaçades,
walls
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings,
highurban
temperatures
leadingto
possible
increased
energyuse
YES Provides
shadingfrom
sun
Aparkwillcoolthearea
equivalenttothesizeof
theparksurroundingit.
(ASCCUE,2012)
Greenwalls
include:
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings,
highurban
temperatures
leadingto
possible
increased
energyuse
YES Provides
attractiveand
functional
greenery
eveninhotter
weather,which
givesshade
Providesaddedcoolingin
hotterweather(difficult
toquantifygenerically)
Greenfacades,
potswithvines
ontrellises
DROUGHT Summertime
mean
precipitation
reduction
Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Waterstress
and/ordrought
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
dwellings
YES Provides
attractiveand
functional
greenerythat
useslesswater,
andstabilises
soils.Whilst
retainingwater
andslowing
runoffinflood
conditions.
Minimisesplants’
exposuretowindsto
reducetheamountof
waterlostthroughthe
plantleavesandthrough
evaporationfromthesoil.
ModellingforGreater
Manchestershowedthat
a10%increaseingreen
covercanresultina5%
reductioninsurface
waterrun-off(ASCCUE,
2012).Enhance
vegetation
ifthesoil
hasgood
infiltration
qualities
HEAVYRAIN
andFLOODS
Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
buildings
YES Provides
cooling,
porosity,links
forbiodiversity
103
Installblue
infrastructure:
lakes,ponds,
andotherwater
landscape
features
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings
further
increasedby
urbanheat
islandeffects
NO Helps
reduceair
temperaturein
neighbourhood
Toprovidelocalised
cooling
Miniflood
defence:
toprotect
detached
dwellingor
groupof
dwellingsina
neighbourhood.
Floodbarrier
pushedupwith
saturationof
theground(DP)
FLOOD Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
buildings
NO Springdam
http://www.
tiltdam.co.uk/
Concepts.
aspx.Gravity
poweredinsitu
flooddefence,
thatactsas
awalkway,
pathwayand
tiltsunderflood
conditionsto
formabarrier
Aparkwillcoolthearea
equivalenttothesizeof
theparksurroundingit.
(ASCCUE,2012)
Construct
sustainable
urbandrainage
systems(SUDS)
(including
capacityfor
waterstorage
areasif
appropriate)
HEAVY RAIN
and FLOOD
Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
buildings
NO Ensuresthat
increased
runoffcanbe
managed.
Useofswales,infiltration,
detentionandretention
pondsinparksis
effective.Runningcosts
arelow,particularlyafter
theinitialgrowingperiod
(ASCCUE,2012).
DROUGHT Summertime
mean
precipitation
reduction
Waterstress
and/ordrought
NO Enhances
localwater
catchmentfor
reuse
Effectiveinsuburban
areas,givensuitableland
usepatterns,andhavean
increasedamenityand
biodiversityvalue
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings
further
increasedby
urbanheat
islandeffects
NO Provideslocal
cooling(for
peopleand
surroundingair
temperatures)
104
HEAVY Summertime
mean
precipitation
reduction
Increaseddust
pollution
YES Toprovide
attractiveand
functional
greenerythat
canwithstand
increasesin
airpollution
(photochemical
smogand
VOCS)
Addseatingin
shadedareas,
onstreets
andinpublic
spaces
HEAT Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Building
overheating
insummer
leadingto
discomfort,ill
health
NO Allowfor
increaseduse
ofoutdoor
space,andadds
tosocialcapital
Identifyand
allocate
appropriate
buildingsas
‘community
coolrooms’
HEAT WAVES Summertime
temperature
increaseand
measurable
heatwave
projections
Overheating
inbuildings
further
increasedby
urbanheat
islandeffects
NO Provides
respitefrom
extremeheat,
particularlyfor
olderresidents
orthosewith
‘hot’homesand
littleoutdoor
space
UsedeffectivelyinSouthern
Europeinheatwaves,for
vulnerablegroups.
Replace
pavements
androadswith
porous,‘cool’
materials
HEAT and
INCREASED
RAIN AND
STORMS
Wintertime
mean
precipitation
increase
Increased
flood
vulnerability
andwater
ingressfor
buildings
YES Cools
neighbourhood
andoffers
drainageto
avoidflooding
Improvedalbedo:binderor
aggregateofdifferentcolour;
coatingthepavementwith
asealorsurfaceofalighter
colour.
Poroustypesletwater
percolatethroughand
evaporationtotakeplace.
Permeablesurfacescanbe
moreconducivetocooling
fromconvectiveairflow.
Bothasphaltandconcrete
pavementscanbebuiltwith
poroussurfaces,andunbound
surfaces(e.g.,grass,gravel)
canbeconstructedusinggrids
forreinforcement.
Pigmentsandsealstochange
thecolourofanasphalt
surfacetomakeitlighter.
Becauseconcretepavements
arealreadylightcoloured,
pigmentsareunlikelyto
improvetheircoolness.
Whitetoppingconsistsofa
concretepavementapplied
overanexistingasphalt
pavementasaformof
maintenanceorresurfacing.
105
Useenergy
efficientstreet
lightingand/or
switchstreet
lightsofffor
periodsofthe
night
MITIGATION Peak
summertime
temperature
increase
Higher
temperatures
cause
increased
coolingload
increases
energy
demandand
energypoverty
YES Savesenergy Canreducecarbon
emissionsby55%
andannualenergy
consumptionby56%.
LEDscanbedimmed,
reducingunnecessary
useofenergyduringnon-
peaktimesbyupto40%.
106
107
Appendix E
Synergies and conflicts between adaptation and mitigation measures
Adaptation
measurePrimaryintent Synergies Inresponseto: Conflicts Inresponseto:
Neighbourhood/Gardenscaleimplementation
Plantingtrees Cooling
Neighbourhood
/garden
(contributesto
UHIreduction)
Coolingeffect
extendsonto/into
individualhomes
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Reductionof
solargainfor
homesinwinter
(varieswith
species)
UKremains
heating
dominated
climate
Speciesplanted
currentlymay
notbedrought
tolerantorable
tocopewitha
changedclimate
Increased
temperature,
solarinsolation
andreduced
summer
precipitation
(drought
conditions)
Plantinglocation
matters:roots
mayexacerbate
subsidenceof
homes
Seasonal
precipitation
extremes,
increased
temperatureand
solarirradiation
Fallentrees
duetowindor
lightningduring
stormscan
damagehomes
Typicalrisk:
‘storminess’,wind
insomeareasare
alreadyhigh
Highalbedo
SUDS
Localisedcooling
–minimisesthe
urbanheatisland
effect
Coolingeffect
extendsinto
homes
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Rainwater
infiltration
Reducetherisk
oflocalwater
pollution
Increasedwinter
precipitation
Reducetherisk
ofpoolingand
pluvialflooding
Increasedwinter
precipitation
Plannedflood
defences,e.g.
swales
Eliminateor
reducefloodrisk
Protecthomes
fromflooding
Increasedwinter
precipitation
Improve
biodiversity
Swalesorother
plannedflood
zonescould
providehabitats
formosquitoes
Increased
temperatures,
flashflooding
108
Adaptation
measurePrimaryintent Synergies Inresponseto: Conflicts Inresponseto:
Homescaleimplementation
Fixedshadingvs.
useroperated
shading
Reducesolargain
enteringhome
-Numerous
simulations
haveshownthat
shadingisin
manycasesthe
mosteffective
measureto
reducetheriskof
overheatinginthe
home*
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Fixedshading,
thoughdesigned
foroptimal
seasonalsolar
anglescanto
somedegree
stillreduce
winter,springand
autumnsolargain
UKremains
heating
dominated
climate
Someshading
approachescan
havethenegative
impactof
reduceddaylight
inthehome,
particularlyfixed
shadingduring
thewinter
Increased
temperature,
solarinsolation
andreduced
summer
precipitation
(drought
conditions)
Resortingto
artificiallighting
willincrease
energyuseand
contributeto
internalheat
gains
Summer:
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Plantinglocation
matters:roots
mayexacerbate
subsidenceof
homes
Seasonal
precipitation
extremes,
increased
temperatureand
solarirradiation
Winter:
Decreasedsolar
insolation
Fallentrees
duetowindor
lightningduring
stormscan
damagehomes
Typicalrisk:
‘storminess’,wind
insomeareasare
alreadyhigh
Natural
ventilation
Ventilation,
particularlynight
ventilationcan
beeffectiveas
projectedbya
majorityofthe
21stcentury*
Ventilation,
particularlynight
ventilationcan
beproblematic
withregardto
occupantsafety,
airqualityand
agoodnight’s
sleep–where
homesareinhigh
trafficareasor
onbusyroads,
nexttopubs,etc.,
airandsound
pollutioncanbe
anissue
Increased
temperature
109
Adaptation
measurePrimaryintent Synergies Inresponseto: Conflicts Inresponseto:
Homescaleimplementation
Increased
insulation
standards
Reduceheating
energydemand
UKremains
heating
dominated
climate
Themitigation
measurewiththe
mostimpactcan
haveunintended
consequences
dependingon
locationinthe
home–internal
wallinsulationand
sometimescavity
wallinsulationwas
foundtoincrease
theoverheating
potentialin
anumberof
homes*
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Coolwallsand
roof(highalbedo
fabricsurfaces)
Reducesolar
gainentering
homethrough
conduction
Combined
coolingeffectof
manyhomescan
reduceUHI
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Reductionof
solargainonroof
andwallsinwinter
UKremains
heating
dominated
climate
Replacing
timberfloors
withorexposing
(re-finishing)
concrete
floorsforflood
resilience
Easypost-minor
floodingclean-up
Provideseffective
thermalmass
Increasesummer
temperatures
Rainwater
harvesting
Reducepotable
waterdemand
inthehomeand
garden
Reduce
rainwaterrunoff
ingardenand
neighbourhood–
reducefloodrisk
Increasedwinter
precipitation
Standingwater
inwaterbutts
(forexample)
couldprovide
conditions
formosquito
breeding
Increased
summer
temperaturesand
milderwinters
Greenroofsand
walls
Coolinghomes Canreduce
rainwaterrunoff
andcreate
localizedcooling,
reducingtheUHI
Reducespace
heatingdemand
inwinter
(dependenton
thermalinsulation
ofsystem)
Increased
temperatureand
solarinsolation
Increasedwinter
precipitation
UKremains
heating
dominated
climate
Somegreen
coveronwallscan
bedetrimental
tothestructural
andaesthetic
qualityofthe
wallsofhomes,
e.g.leadingto
moistureingress
(particularly
wherewalls
arealready
damaged).
However,this
problemcanbe
avoidedrelatively
easily
Increasedwinter
precipitation
110
Adaptation
measurePrimaryintent Synergies Inresponseto: Conflicts Inresponseto:
Homescaleimplementation
Floodgates,
skirts,etc.
Homelevelflood
resistance
Increasedwinter
precipitation
Individualhome
resistanceto
flooding,evenon
acollectivelevel,
hasthepotential
toexacerbate
theimpact
elsewhere.An
approachtoflood
resistancemust
beconsideredat
largescale.
Increasedwinter
precipitation
*GuptaandGregg(2012)
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