Subsidy Reform: Effective Targeting to Reach the Poor. The ... · Subsidy Reform: Effective...
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Subsidy Reform: Effective Targeting to Reach the Poor. The Case of Egypt By: Walaa Talaat School of International Development Under Supervision of Professor Peter Lloyd-Sherlock Dr Lucio Esposito
Transcript of Subsidy Reform: Effective Targeting to Reach the Poor. The ... · Subsidy Reform: Effective...
Subsidy Reform: Effective Targeting to Reach the Poor. The Case of Egypt
By: Walaa TalaatSchool of International Development
Under Supervision of
Professor Peter Lloyd-SherlockDr Lucio Esposito
21. INTRODUCTION (I)
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2011)
Wider
Context
31. INTRODUCTION (II)
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2011)
Local
Context
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An alternative poverty targeting tool affect the capacity of Egypt’s current general food subsidy system to identify the poor and improve poverty
targeting outcomes with the same resources.
The current performance of the general food subsidy system target the poor in
Egypt
The possibility to build a targeting system for the Egyptian food
subsidy program based on PMT that is able to improve the
effectiveness of targeting in identifying the poor compared to the current targeting mechanism
2. RESEARCH QUESTION (S)
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Designing the Objective of
Any Program
Whom do I want to reach?
What costs do I face
under different
Targeting Methods to
achieve the program
Objective?
What Targeting Method to
Implement Under the
program Budget Constraint
to achieve our goal
effectively and efficiently?
3. DILEMMA
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4. BACKGROUND & PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS (I)
World
War IIPresident
Nasser
President
Sadat
President
Mubarak
Post-Mubarak
Current Smart
Card System
History of the Egypt’s Food Subsidy System
1952-1970 1970-1981 1981-2011 2011-2016
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4. BACKGROUND & PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS (II)
16.7
19.6
21.6
25.2
26.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2000/1999
2004/2005
2008/2009
2010/2011
2012/2013
Percentage of poverty in Egypt
Percentage (%) of poverty
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics report (CAPMAS,
2013)
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4. BACKGROUND & ANALYSIS (III)
Source: Researcher calculations based on Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade
in Egypt, report 2014 & CAPMAS
0
1,000,00 0
2,000,00 0
3,000,00 0
4,000,00 0
5,000,00 0
6,000,00 0
7,000,00 0
8,000,00 0
9,000,00 0
10,000,0 00
Number of Population Number of people benefit from the smart card
Num
ber
of
the p
opula
tion
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0.00
5000
0.00
1000
00.0
015
0000
.00
2000
00.0
025
0000
.00
Tota
l ye
arl
y h
ou
seh
old
exp
en
ditu
re
0.00 20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00 1.0e+05Lower Poverty Line or Absolute Poverty
Total exp of RC_Households Total exp of NRC_Households
4. BACKGROUND & ANALYSIS (VII)To
tal Yearl
y E
xpendit
ure
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4. BACKGROUND & ANALYSIS (VIII)
Poor Households Non-Poor Households
0.0
0
200
00
.00
400
00
.00
600
00
.00
Tota
l ye
arl
y h
ou
seh
old
exp
en
ditu
re
0.00 20000.00 40000.00 60000.00Lower Poverty Line or Absolute Poverty
Total exp Poor_RC Total exp Poor_NRC
0.00
5000
0.00
1000
00.00
1500
00.00
2000
00.00
2500
00.00
Tota
l ye
arl
y h
ou
seh
old
exp
en
ditu
re
0.00 20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00 1.0e+05Lower Poverty Line or Absolute Poverty
Total exp Non_poor_RC Total exp Non_poor_RC
Tota
l Yearl
y E
xpendit
ure
Household Poverty LinesTo
tal Yearl
y E
xpendit
ure
Household Poverty Lines
Under-Coverage Leakage
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Poverty Map is used
in selecting the
districts/neighbour-
hoods for the
selected three
governorates
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Reconciliation
12Quantitative
Analysis
A Challenge or An Opportunity
Qualitative
Analysis
Quantitative
Analysis showed
that the Program is
not working
effectively.
What are the explanations for
the inclusion and exclusion errors
and why?
How effective is the PMT targeting
method versus the current targeting
system?
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Thank You
