Subcommittee on Hydrology ( SOH)
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Transcript of Subcommittee on Hydrology ( SOH)
Subcommittee on Subcommittee on HydrologyHydrology
((SOH)SOH)
2007 Report2007 Report
February 21, 2008
Steve BlanchardUSGS
Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology The purpose of the Subcommittee is to analyze The purpose of the Subcommittee is to analyze
relevant issues and facts and to draft proposed relevant issues and facts and to draft proposed position papers or recommendations for position papers or recommendations for improving the availability and reliability of improving the availability and reliability of surface-water quantity informationsurface-water quantity information. .
Carry out purpose by: (a) sharing valuable water related information through
the meetings and activities, and (b) organizing working groups to accomplish tasks as
needed.
Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology• Change in SOH Leadership at end of October 2007
meeting
• Big Thanks to Past Chair – Sam LinFederal Energy Regulatory Commission
• Chair – Steve Blanchard U.S. Geological Survey• Vice Chair – Mary Greene Office of Surface Mining
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Meeting Outside DC
Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology Very active committee Met 4 times in 2007
January, April, July, October Meet 4x per year for about a decade
4 Work Groups Hydrologic Modeling
(Don Frevert – BOR) Satellite Telemetry Interagency
(Ernest Dreyer – USGS) Hydrologic Frequency Analysis
(Will Thomas – ASFPM) Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Applications
(Bill Merkel – NRCS)
Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology Agricultural Research Service Agricultural Research Service American Forests American Forests Association of State Floodplain Association of State Floodplain
ManagersManagers Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation Defenders of Property RightsDefenders of Property Rights Federal Emergency Federal Emergency
Management AgencyManagement Agency Federal Energy Regulatory Federal Energy Regulatory
CommissionCommission Federal Highway Federal Highway
Administration Administration NASA/Goddard Space Flight NASA/Goddard Space Flight
Center Center
National Hydrologic Warning National Hydrologic Warning CouncilCouncil
Natural Resources Natural Resources Conservation Service Conservation Service
National Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service Nuclear Regulatory Nuclear Regulatory
Commission Commission Office of Surface MiningOffice of Surface Mining US Army Corps of Engineers US Army Corps of Engineers US Environmental Protection US Environmental Protection
Agency Agency US Forest Service US Forest Service US Geological Survey US Geological Survey
SOH - ActivitiesSOH - ActivitiesPublished Published newsletter newsletter
““The SOH The SOH ConnectionsConnections””
March,March,June, June, October, October, DecemberDecember
SOH - ActivitiesSOH - Activities Exploring forming an additional Work
Group with focus on data sharing “Information management and sharing--Create
links among information systems to support easy access and to share …..……Establish a mechanism that uses modern information technology to make data available to all interested parties.”
Investigating collaboration with CUAHSI and their Hydrologic Information System (HIS))
SOH - ActivitiesSOH - Activities Exploring forming an additional Work Group with
focus on extreme storms Storm-based precipitation is one of the major inputs to
rainfall-runoff models and are needed for infrastructure design considerations
The most recent Hydrometeorological Report (HMR) was published in 1999 and used data up to February 1986
Extreme storm precipitation data from last 20-40 years is not included in the existing HMRs
Desire to develop a detailed scope of work and determine the necessary funding requirements to to update HMR update HMR
SOH – Hydrologic Modeling SOH – Hydrologic Modeling Work GroupWork Group
Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conferences proceedings from 1998, 2002, 2006 scanned and ready to be linked to work group web site.
Working with Subcommittee on Sedimentation to plan for 2010 Joint Hydrologic Modeling and Sedimentation Conference – tentative facility location selected and negotiations underway.
SOH – Satellite Telemetry InteragencySOH – Satellite Telemetry Interagency Work Group (STIWG) Work Group (STIWG)
• Chartered jointly by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) and the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI).
• Reports to OFCM’s Committee for Environmental Services, Operations and Research Needs ( C/ESORN) and ACWI’s Subcommittee on Hydrology.
• Acts as a user's group for major users of the GOES DCS.
• Members include USBR, USGS, Corps of Engineers, BLM, Forest Service , NOAA, NPS, & Dept. of State.
• Advises NOAA/NESDIS of user requirements• Coordinates funding for user-desired improvements
to the GOES DCS.• Met 2x since last ACWI meeting (June 07, January
08)
Addressing Addressing Vulnerabilities in the Vulnerabilities in the
GOES DCS SystemGOES DCS System Working with NOAA/NESDIS to develop a roadmap to reduce existing vulnerabilities in the GOES DCS.
Development an Emergency Data Distribution System(EDDN) at the USGS's EROS Data Center• Development was jointly funded by the USGS and
NOAA/NESDIS.• Contract was awarded in July 2007 to install a complete
GOES Reception System.• Contract will be completed in Early March.• Integration of the EDDN into existing real-time
processing systems begins in March.
Technical Improvements to the
GOES DCS System Development of a 2-way communications capability for GOES DCS.• Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)
contract was awarded to Sutron Corp. to build prototype.
• Contract managed by NOAA/NOS.• Prototypes expected in June 2009.
Development of a binary protocol for use on the GOES DCS.
Development of a standard format for expressing metadata about remote sites for information sharing..
Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology Reports fromReports from
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work GroupHydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group Will Thomas – ASFPMWill Thomas – ASFPM
Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Work GroupHydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Work GroupBill Merkel – NRCSBill Merkel – NRCS
Questions and commentsQuestions and comments
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work GroupWork Group
PurposePurpose: To increase the usefulness of : To increase the usefulness of the current guidelines for Hydrologic the current guidelines for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis computations (e.g. Frequency Analysis computations (e.g. Bulletin 17B) and to evaluate other Bulletin 17B) and to evaluate other procedures for frequency analysis of procedures for frequency analysis of hydrologic phenomena. hydrologic phenomena.
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
HFAWG composed ofHFAWG composed of 18 “active” members18 “active” members 12 corresponding members12 corresponding members Representatives from Federal agencies, private Representatives from Federal agencies, private
consultants, academia, water management consultants, academia, water management agenciesagencies
12 meetings or conference calls since January 12 meetings or conference calls since January 2000 (last conference call July 12, 2007)2000 (last conference call July 12, 2007)
http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Bulletin 17BBulletin 17BBulletin 17B - Published in 1982, includes Bulletin 17B - Published in 1982, includes
guidelines for:guidelines for:
Fitting Pearson Type III distribution Fitting Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flowsto logarithms of annual peak flows
Estimating generalized skew Estimating generalized skew Weighting generalized skew with Weighting generalized skew with
station skewstation skew Low- and high-outlier detection Low- and high-outlier detection
teststests Conditional probability adjustment Conditional probability adjustment
for low outliersfor low outliers Adjustments for historic flood dataAdjustments for historic flood data
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Work Group (HFAWG)
The HFAWG has developed a plan to evaluate The HFAWG has developed a plan to evaluate improvements in Bulletin 17B:improvements in Bulletin 17B: Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA)Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) = new = new
statistical technique for fitting the Pearson Type III statistical technique for fitting the Pearson Type III distributiondistribution
Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for analyzing data sets with historic and paleoflood dataanalyzing data sets with historic and paleoflood data
Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for analyzing data sets with low outliers and zero flows analyzing data sets with low outliers and zero flows
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Plan for improvements to Bulletin 17B:Plan for improvements to Bulletin 17B: Describe improved procedures for estimating Describe improved procedures for estimating
generalized/regional skewgeneralized/regional skew Describe improved procedures for defining Describe improved procedures for defining
confidence limitsconfidence limits Develop an electronic version of a new Develop an electronic version of a new
Bulletin 17CBulletin 17C
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Testing of EMA is taking two approachesTesting of EMA is taking two approaches Observed dataObserved data – 82 gaging stations with – 82 gaging stations with
historic peaks, high and low outliershistoric peaks, high and low outliers Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo simulation – simulate data from – simulate data from
assumed frequency distributionsassumed frequency distributions
Testing, which began in August 2007, is Testing, which began in August 2007, is being accomplished by John England, being accomplished by John England, USBR, and Tim Cohn, USGSUSBR, and Tim Cohn, USGS
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
EMA was implemented as part of the EMA was implemented as part of the USGS PeakFQ program – Version 5.2 on USGS PeakFQ program – Version 5.2 on USGS web site (November 2007)USGS web site (November 2007)
Bureau of Reclamation code is consistent Bureau of Reclamation code is consistent with USGSwith USGS
USACE is incorporating the EMA code in USACE is incorporating the EMA code in HEC-SSP (HEC-FFA)HEC-SSP (HEC-FFA)
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
EMA and Bulletin 17B analyses completed EMA and Bulletin 17B analyses completed for 82 stationsfor 82 stations
PreliminaryPreliminary differences in 100-year differences in 100-year estimates are ((EMA-B17)/B17):estimates are ((EMA-B17)/B17): 1010thth percentile = -12.24% percentile = -12.24% 2525thth percentile = -2.44% percentile = -2.44% 5050thth percentile = -0.02% percentile = -0.02% 7575thth percentile = 0.54% percentile = 0.54% 9090thth percentile = 9.71% percentile = 9.71%
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Estimating generalized skewEstimating generalized skew with a with a generalized least squares regression generalized least squares regression approach looks promisingapproach looks promising Time sampling and model error are estimatedTime sampling and model error are estimated Variance of the at-site skew and spatial Variance of the at-site skew and spatial
correlation is consideredcorrelation is considered Recent study by USGS in SE USA indicates that Recent study by USGS in SE USA indicates that
effective record length of generalized skew is effective record length of generalized skew is about 70 yearsabout 70 years
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Confidence intervalsConfidence intervals in Bulletin 17B do not in Bulletin 17B do not consider the uncertainty in skew estimate consider the uncertainty in skew estimate and the value of historic peaksand the value of historic peaks
Several papers describe improved Several papers describe improved procedures that can be incorporated in 17C:procedures that can be incorporated in 17C: Chowdury and Stedinger (1991)Chowdury and Stedinger (1991) Cohn et al. (2001)Cohn et al. (2001) Griffis et al. (2004)Griffis et al. (2004)
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)
Plans for the futurePlans for the future Perform split-sampling analyses using the Perform split-sampling analyses using the
observed peak dataobserved peak data Complete the Monte-Carlo simulationsComplete the Monte-Carlo simulations Have a HFAWG meeting to discuss results to Have a HFAWG meeting to discuss results to
date – determine any new analysesdate – determine any new analyses Revise Bulletin 17B as appropriateRevise Bulletin 17B as appropriate Begin the review process of Bulletin 17CBegin the review process of Bulletin 17C
Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Applications Work Group
Presented by William MerkelUSDA-NRCS
SOH web page
Work Group web page
Teleconference minutes are posted
Sample Fact Sheet
USGS StreamStats
US EPA BASINS
US ACE HEC-GeoRAS
US ACE HEC-GeoHMS
NRCS Geo-Hydro
Current and future activities• Next teleconference March 5, 2008• Present paper at AWRA conference• Demonstrate GIS applications• Distribute questionnaire to federal
agencies and others.• Develop page with web links to major
applications.
Questions?