Structure and dynamics of the Italian Pv Market - Gerardo Montanino (GSE)

- 2 -

Ownership 100%

MEF (Ministry of Economy)

MISSION Support to sustainable development, through both economic incentives for energy production from

renewable sources and information actions aimed at a more widespread energy culture that is coherent with the environmental needs

MSE (Ministry of Economic

Development)

AEEG (Italian Regulatory Authority

for Electricity and Gas)

Decisions Guidelines

GSE

- 3 -

No

n s

olo

en

erg

ia e

lettric

a

• Renewable Energy Sources Status

• Results of Feed-in Premium

Agenda

- 4 -

The statistics of the National Action Plan: gross final consumption per sector (MTEP)

Renewable Energy Sources Status

Note to the table: Gross final consumption is equal to the sum of final energy consumption + services for heat and power generation + distribution losses of electricity and heat.

Mtep (Mtep) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FER - Elettricità (1) 4,8 4,8 4,9 5,1 5,4 5,9

FER - Termico 2,2 2,7 2,4 3,4 4,5 5,5

FER - Trasporti 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,7 1,2 1,5

Consumi Finali Lordi (2) 138,9 137,3 134,3 131,7 124,7 127,5

Target (3) 5,2% 5,6% 5,5% 7,0% 8,9% 10,1%10,1%

Gross final consumption RES – Transport RES – Heat RES - Electricity

RES - Electricity

RES - Heat

RES - Transport

Total RES / GFC

Gross Final Consumption

- 5 -

Increase in electrical capacity of RES plants

*Bioenergy: solid biomass, biodegradable part of waste, biogas and bioliquid ** Preliminary estimates using Terna and GSE statistics.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011**

Solare Eolica Bioenergie* Geotermica Idrica

18.335

92%

3%

41.352

31%

17%

7%

2%

43%

In 2000 : 18,335 MW => in 2011 : 41,352 MW Total increase of 23,000 MW in 11 years

(Around 75% of the increase took place in the last 4 years)

2000 Wind + Solar + Bioenergy = 1,067 MW (6%)

2011** Wind + Solar + Bioenergy = 22,630 MW (55%)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011**

Solar Wind Bioenergy* Geothermal Hydro

18,335 MW

91%

3%

41,352 MW

31%

17%

7%

2%

43%


- 6 -


Increase of total gross production from RES

2000 Wind + Solar + Bioenergy = 2.1 TWh (4%)

2011** Wind + Solar + Bioenergy = 32.2 TWh (38%)

In 2000 : 51 TWh => in 2011 : 84 TWh Total increase of around 33,000 TWh due to new RES

51 TWh

84 TWh

*Bioenergy: solid biomass, biodegradable part of waste, biogas and bioliquid ** Preliminary estimates using Terna and GSE statistics.

87%

9%

55%

13%

12%

13%

7%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011**

Hydro Geothermal Bioenergy* Wind Solar

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No

n s

olo

en

erg

ia e

lettric

a

• Renewable Energy Sources Status

• Results of Feed-in Premium

Agenda

- 8 -

Number, capacity and production of PV plants from 2007 to 2011

Production (GWh)

Results of Feed-in Premium

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

39 193

676

1,905

10,795

87 431

1,144

3,470

12,773

7,647 32,018

71,288

155,977

330,196

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

N ° MW Capacity (MW) Number

- 9 -


PV plants capacity and number by capacity range

Capacity (kW) no. MW no. MW no. MW

1<=C<=3 61,720 167 110,577 303 +79 +81

3<C<=20 82,003 631 179,170 1,431 +118 +127

20<C<=200 10,115 706 31,379 2,446 +210 +246

200<C<=1,000 1,915 1,236 8,100 5,405 +323 +337

1,000<C<=5,000 196 376 827 1,876 +322 +400

C>5,000 28 354 143 1,312 +411 +270

Total 155,977 3,470 330,196 12,773 +112 +268

2010 2011 2011 /2010 % change

- 10 -

Monthly capacity commissioned in 2011


3,470 3,745 4,185 4,801

6,484

7,802 9,065

9,632

11,126 11,434 11,808 12,345

275 440 616

1,683

1,318

1,263

568

1,494

307 374

538 428

3,745 4,185

4,801

6,484

7,802

9,065 9,632

11,126 11,434

11,808 12,345

12,773

January February March April May June July August September October November Dicember

Total commissioned capacity by the end of the previous month New capacity commissioned

MW

- 11 -

Monthly production of PV plants in 2011


162 249

360 472

550 518 555 554 440

350 224 179

5

32

100

219

461 644

867 965

980

830

588

490

168

280

460

691

1,011

1,162

1,422

1,519 1,420

1,181

812

669

Commissioned plants by the end of 2010 Commissioned plants in 2011

GWh

January February March April May June July August September October November Dicember

- 12 -

Regional distribution of number and capacity by the end of 2011


0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

Pie

mo

nte

Va

lle d

'Aosta

Lom

bard

ia

Tre

ntin

o A

lto A

dig

e

Ve

neto

Friu

li V

en

ezia

Giu

lia

Lig

uria

Em

ilia R

om

agna

To

sca

na

Um

bria

Ma

rche

Lazio

Ab

ruzzo

Mo

lise

Cam

pania

Pu

glia

Ba

sili

cata

Cala

bria

Sic

ilia

Sa

rdegna

N° MW Potenza Installata (MW) Numero Impianti

,

Capacity commissioned (MW) Number of plants

,

,

, ,

,

,

,

,

- 13 -

Distribution of number and capacity of PV plants by the end of 2011 (percentage)


0.1 - 1.0

1.1 - 3.0

3.1 - 6.0

6.1 - 8.0

8.1 - 10.0

10.1 - 16.0

Number of plants

(Tot. 330,196)

0.1 - 1.0

1.1 - 3.0

3.1 - 6.0

6.1 - 10.0

10.1 - 15.0

15.1 - 20.0

Capacity

(Tot. 12,773 MW)

- 14 -

PV penetration in Italian municipalities

(percentage refers to the number of municipalities)

2008

60%

2007

31%

2006

11%

2010

83%

2009

80%

2011

95%


- 15 -

Capacity commissioned by the end of 2011

(modules technology and type of installation)


24

43

22

38

17

25

33

25

26

23

27

33

27

18

13

22

24

32

14

20

23

70

56

72

59

75

70

64

70

68

73

68

62

71

82

80

69

75

67

71

75

70

6

1

6

3

8

4

3

5

6

4

4

5

2

1

8

9

2

1

14

5

7

Piemonte

Valle d'Aosta

Lombardia

Trentino Alto Adige

Veneto

Friuli Venezia Giulia

Liguria

Emilia Romagna

Toscana

Umbria

Marche

Lazio

Abruzzo

Molise

Campania

Puglia

Basilicata

Calabria

Sicilia

Sardegna

ITALIA

Percentage values

Monocristallino Policristallino Film Sottile e Altro

43

12

16

3

30

26

4

48

44

50

64

67

64

73

35

83

69

25

60

23

49

50

82

77

90

62

70

69

46

46

41

29

23

31

21

55

10

21

44

24

39

41

4

1

3

3

4

1

24

3

5

6

4

8

2

4

5

4

8

26

12

33

6

3

4

4

5

5

3

3

2

4

4

3

3

3

2

4

3

3

4

4

5

4

Piemonte

Valle d'Aosta

Lombardia

Trentino Alto Adige

Veneto


Liguria

Emilia Romagna

Toscana

Umbria

Marche

Lazio

Abruzzo

Molise

Campania

Puglia

Basilicata

Calabria

Sicilia

Sardegna

ITALIA

Percentage values

A terra Su edifici Serre/pensiline AltroMonocrystalline Policrystalline Thin film - others Ground On buildings Greenhouses/shelter Others

- 16 -

Capacity by category of Responsible Party by the end of 2011

Capacity by activity sector by the end of 2011


14

18

17

26

15

18

27

21

16

11

13

7

8

6

8

5

18

19

14

23

13

65

21

52

34

56

43

36

55

52

65

72

75

66

78

63

87

59

52

70

56

65

14

33

19

25

15

17

18

16

20

16

10

10

18

10

19

4

18

14

7

8

13

7

28

12

14

14

23

18

7

12

8

5

8

7

5

11

4

5

15

9

13

9

Piemonte

Valle d'Aosta

Lombardia

Trentino Alto Adige

Veneto


Liguria

Emilia Romagna

Toscana

Umbria

Marche

Lazio

Abruzzo

Molise

Campania

Puglia

Basilicata

Calabria

Sicilia

Sardegna

ITALIA

Percentage values

Agricoltura Industria Terziario Domestico

Company: 87.9

Physical persons: 8.5

Public bodies: 3.2

No profit organizations: 0.3 Schools/Health facities: 0.1

Blocks of flats: 0.1

Others: 3.6

Agricolture Industry Tertiary Residential

Percentage values

- 17 -


Plants by the end of 2011 replacing asbestos

Fourth Feed-in Premium Total

Total yearly bonus estimate: 45.8 M€ Total yearly bonus estimate: 25.8 M€ REGION number mq kW

ABRUZZO 256 215,668 20,601.2

BASILICATA 49 23,576 2,318.1

CALABRIA 195 93,781 9,578.2

CAMPANIA 93 248,636 24,251.5

EMILIA ROMAGNA 2,743 1,982,240 202,669.4

FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA 820 417,872 45,025.6

LAZIO 392 379,861 37,495.6

LIGURIA 88 57,089 6,063.8

LOMBARDIA 4,155 3,163,923 352,957.5

MARCHE 617 778,105 70,779.7

MOLISE 29 27,600 3,215.8

PIEMONTE 2,123 1,493,698 168,233.7

PUGLIA 218 183,564 16,978.4

SARDEGNA 266 328,560 28,479.5

SICILIA 243 258,382 29,972.7

TOSCANA 1,053 827,120 82,068.7

TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE 213 197,941 22,013.7

UMBRIA 548 368,131 40,649.7

VALLE D'AOSTA 42 18,645 1,486.9

VENETO 2,202 1,724,392 175,020.0

ITALY 16,345 12,788,782 1,339,859.8

REGION number mq kW

ABRUZZO 92 68,585 6,760.5

BASILICATA 21 12,702 1,163.6

CALABRIA 86 23,224 2,303.9

CAMPANIA 35 116,090 10,757.2

EMILIA ROMAGNA 1,102 783,075 81,365.3

FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA 239 201,480 20,357.6

LAZIO 176 180,852 17,366.1

LIGURIA 39 38,521 4,133.2

LOMBARDIA 1,572 1,258,913 135,967.3

MARCHE 260 283,308 25,773.9

MOLISE 17 7,861 911.5

PIEMONTE 717 539,386 60,563.4

PUGLIA 103 70,916 7,213.1

SARDEGNA 102 209,878 15,075.2

SICILIA 117 104,998 12,702.2

TOSCANA 420 325,463 31,942.1

TRENTINO ALTO ADIGE 65 54,190 6,224.5

UMBRIA 217 146,918 16,736.8

VALLE D'AOSTA 17 7,514 546.8

VENETO 795 565,553 57,994.8

ITALY 6,192 4,999,426 515,859.0

- 18 -

Building energy efficiency bonus by the end of 2011

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

Pie

mon

te

Valle

d'A

osta

Lo

mba

rdia

Tre

ntino

Alto A

dig

e

Vene

to

Fri

uli

Ve

nezia

Giu

lia

Lig

uria

Em

ilia R

om

ag

na

Toscana

Um

bria

Ma

rch

e

La

zio

Abru

zzo

Mo

lise

Ca

mpa

nia

Puglia

Basili

cata

Ca

lab

ria

Sic

ilia

Sard

eg

na

N° kW Potenza Installata (kW) Numero Impianti

N° kW

Edifici Esistenti 923 7.547

Edifici Nuovi 291 2.740

Italia 1.214 10 .28 7

Premio riconosciuto


, , , ,

, , , , , ,

Capacity commissioned (kW) Number of plants

Number Capacity (kW)

Existing buildings 923 7,547

New buildings 291 2,740

Total 1,214 10,287

- 19 -

PV installed capacity in the main world markets in 2011

Source: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), GSE


France China USA Spain Japan Italy Germany

2,500 2,900 4,200 4,200 4,700 12,773 24,700

1,500 2,000 1,600 400 1,100 9,304 7,500

1,000 900 2,600 3,800 3,600 3,470 17,200

MW

Total by the end of 2011

Commissioned by the end of 2010

Commissioned in 2011

- 20 -


Possible evolution in annual costs

Definitive figures are those taken from the ˝PV counterˮ on GSE website and they are related to the application forms to incentives.

They do not include PV plants accepted in the registers that are not yet

completed and that are still in time to respect the deadline (7-9 months). So far, the yearly cost of all these plants is around 70 M€.

Definitive figures High scenario Low scenario

B€

1.691

2.311

4.248

5.106

5.569 5.650

5.900 6.100

6.300

5.800 5.900

6.050

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

6.500

7.000

- 21 -

Thank you!

Structure and dynamics of the Italian Pv Market - Gerardo Montanino (GSE)

Technology

Transcript of Structure and dynamics of the Italian Pv Market - Gerardo Montanino (GSE)