Organizational Adaptation Last Update 2013.09.07 1.0.0 Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013 1.
Strategy Last Update 2015.01.10 1.2.0 Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 1.
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Transcript of Strategy Last Update 2015.01.10 1.2.0 Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 1.
Strategy
• We will begin the course by considering what strategy is and why it is important
• To illustrate this we will look at an example from history
• For as we will see strategy is strategy whether in the military or the commercial realm
• Humans operate in the same way no matter what they do
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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What is a Strategy
• The source of all knowledge tells us that strategy is– A plan of action or policy designed to achieve
a major or overall aim• The source of all knowledge tells us that in
contrast tactics are– An action designed to achieve a specific end
or part of a strategy
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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What is a Strategy
• We will see an example of a strategy that failed because it was missing some important elements
• We will see an example of a strategy that succeeded because it both identified the important elements and correctly implemented the tactics required to carry out the strategy including altering some of the tactics based on circumstances
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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What is a Strategy
• What a strategy is and is not will be illustrated by an example from history
• In this case the world war in the 1930s and 1940s
• There were two major belligerents that precipitated the war– Japan– Germany
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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What is a Strategy
• Germany had a minor belligerent that was supposed to assist it– Italy
• These countries were opposed by the Allied powers– Great Britain– USSR– The United States of America
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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What is a Strategy
• The allies were assisted by two minor belligerents– China– France
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Let’s begin with Japan• In the 1930s Japan had a problem with
two possible solutions• The problem was
– They needed natural resources such as oil, coal, rubber, and metals
• The solutions were– Buy what they needed– Take control of the resources by force
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• As this was the age of imperialism the solution in their view was simple, take what you need as everyone else already had
• Let’s see where their area of interest was
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Area
• This search for control of the resources they needed to drive a modern industrial economy began with securing a coal supply just across the Sea of Japan in Manchuria
• In addition to the coal in Manchuria the Japanese needed rubber, metals, and especially oil
• These resources were found hereCopyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014
www.chipps.com11
Barrier Area
• As the current owners of these resources might object, Japan had to create a second part to their strategy which was to secure both the resource area and prevent interference with the movement of the raw materials from the resource area to Japan
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Barrier Area
• This was to be achieved by creating an inner barrier on the islands they had controlled since the end of the European war from 1914 to 1918 and an outer barrier of islands to be secured at the beginning of the war
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Barrier Area
Establish a Multilayer
Barrier
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Route
• The route to be used to return the resources from their location to Japan was this
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Threat
• This route from the resource area back to Japan had two problems that required attention at the same time the resources themselves were secured
• The United Kingdom in addition to controlling the rubber in Malaya had a major naval base at the tip of Malaysia in Singapore
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Threat
• The stated strategy of the United Kingdom at that time was that if a threat to their interests in the area arose the main fleet would be dispatched to Singapore to counter any such threat
• Clearly Japan would have to secure that base and defeat that fleet
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Threat
• The United States did not control any of the resources the Japanese sought
• But they did control the Philippines• Even though these islands were to
assume self governance in 1946 the Japanese could reasonably expect that the US would maintain a significant presence there
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Threat
• These two threats would have to be eliminated
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Resource Return Threat
Coal
Oil
Rubber
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Barrier Penetration Threat
• Lastly the US had recently moved their Pacific Fleet from San Diego to Hawaii
• This fleet was the most significant threat to penetrate the barrier to be erected around Japan and her resources
• It must therefore be eliminated or at least reduced
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The Strategy
Control The Resources
Remove The
Threat
Remove The
Threat
Establish a Multilayer
Barrier
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The Strategy
• In the view of both Japan and the US the war would be decided by a decisive battle
• In this decisive battle the US naval forces would advance on Japan
• Japanese submarine forces would attrite the US forces on their approach to the battle area
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The Strategy
• Japanese destroyer forces would then further reduce the US forces as they entered the inner area
• Finally Japanese heavy naval ships would inflict sufficient damage on the US naval forces that they would withdraw outside the outer barrier
• The US would at that point recognize that it would be too costly to defeat Japan
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The Strategy
• The US would agree to the control of the resource area by Japan
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The US Strategy
• The US had recognized the problem of the Japanese and the likely solutions to this problem for quite some time
• The Japanese strategy was also quite clear
• The problem for the US was how to counter that strategy
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The US Strategy
• The elements of the US strategy included– Stop the flow of resources to the Japanese,
such as oil sales from the US– Intimidate the Japanese into not seizing the
resources by increasing the size and the capability of the Pacific Fleet
• If these actions failed to work, then
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The US Strategy
– Solve the problem of controlling the sea and air space around the islands that constituted the outer and inner barriers so that each one could in turn be captured
– Solve the problem of how to land and sustain ground forces on these islands
– Solve the problem of how to keep the fleet in motion without forward bases as the Japanese would be in control of all of these
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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The US Strategy
– Solve the problem of how to prevent the resources from reaching Japan
– Secure bases near enough to Japan and develop an aircraft capable of preventing the Japanese from using any resources that did reach Japan from being used to create products of any type by bombing the plants that produced the products from the resources
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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An Example of No Strategy
• In contrast to Japan and the US who both had clear and reasonable strategies ready to implement at the beginning of the Pacific War Germany during the same time period had similar economic problems as did Japan but had no facility or seeming desire to develop and carry out a strategy to solve this problem of a lack of natural resources, except for coal
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Germany in the 1930s had desires and rages but no coherent strategy that would lead them to acquire what the sought
• Unlike Japan which had a direct route to the resources they needed Germany is essentially land locked
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Despite having access to the sea along its northern border this route is easily cutoff by the use of naval and air power based in surrounding states
• This type of blockade was successfully carried out by the Western powers during the European war of 1914-1918
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Germany decided that it could acquire what it needed by either ensuring it could retain access to the trade routes that passed through the North Sea
• Or - or should it be and• By securing these resources from the
Soviet Union
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Due to the aberrations the ideological basis of the German government produced, trading for these resources was never even an option Germany considered
• Taking these resources by force was then the only choice in the German view
• Germany planned for a war that was to commence in 1945 or 1946
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• They found themselves in a war in 1939• The result was their only fully developed
armed force was an army capable only of ground and air operations on the European continent
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Italy
• To supplement this lack of forces Italy was supposed to use its naval forces to secure access to the Mediterranean Sea
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Great Britain and France
• Opposing Germany and Italy was France and Great Britain
• They first attempted to prevent German expansion by buying off the Germans by trading small countries for peace
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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USSR
• The USSR attempted to prevent German expansion by providing the resources Germany needed through trade
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Why Did These Strategies Fail
• Despite one country having a complete and coherent strategy neither Japan not Germany were able to prevail
• Further the opposing powers of Great Britain France and the Soviet Union were unable to prevent a general war from breaking out
• Why
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Why Did These Strategies Fail
• In essence a failure to understand the true nature of the world they were operating in
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Why Did These Strategies Fail
• Such as– Failure to assess all possible risks– Failure to examine basic facts about an
opponent– Failure to understand what the term total war
means– Failure to understand the capabilities of a
modern industrialized society when fully mobilized
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Why Did These Strategies Fail
– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact
– Inattention to intelligence gathering– Inattention to logistics
• Let us examine each of these for both countries
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Failure to assess all possible risks– The entire emphasis of the Japanese military
was the offensive– They gave no thought to the need for defense– This resulted in
• An inability to move the resources from their origin to Japan due to a failure to develop a merchant shipping protection method
• A failure to have aircraft or antiaircraft devices that could reach the altitude at which the B-29 operated
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Failure to examine basic facts about an opponent– Even a cursory examination of just the
demography of each nation would have suggested to the Japanese that their venture was doomed to failure
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
– For example in 1940 the population of the potential belligerents looked like this
• Japan - 73 million
• US – 132 million• UK – 45 million• France – 40 million• The Netherlands – 9 million• Total – 226 million
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Total war and the nature of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized– Assuming the war with at least one and likely
both Japan and Germany was inevitable the US preceded to do the following before the war• Two Ocean Navy Act• The Draft
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
– From 1941 to 1945 Japan and the US produced the following• Aircraft production
– Japan – 76,000– US – 325,000
• Merchant ship production– Japan – 4,000,000 tons– US – 34,000,000 tons
• Naval ship production– Japan - 440– US – 1,191
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact• Despite the obvious demographic and
industrial disadvantages Japan would have in a war with the combined forces of the US, UK, France, and Holland the Japanese assumed their superior spirit would overcome this
• The opposing forces, in particular the US, were assumed to be weak and easily frightened by high losses of men and material
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Inattention to intelligence gathering– Japan did not suffer from this failure– They were reasonably aware of the military
capabilities and weaknesses of the US
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan
• Inattention to logistics– Japan paid little to no attention to this critical
component of a successful military operation except for the opening operations
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Japan Should Have
• What should Japan have done instead of what they did
• Good question• Within the age of imperialism the strategy
they developed was not unreasonable• They just assumed away to many of the
threats instead of dealing with them
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• The same factors caused the German defeat
• Failure to assess all possible risks– The German military has never had any
conception of strategy– They have always had excellent tactics, just
no context in which to place those tactics– This caused them to discount many risks to
their plans
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
– Such as• The ability of a nation to invade a country directly
across an ocean as in the invasion of Africa from the US
• The ability to conduct a strategic bombing campaign that would target critical points based on economic analysis such as attacks on transportation and refining
• The ability of a nation to overwhelm superior technology with production
– Panther Tiger v Sherman– ME-262 v P-51
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Failure to examine basic facts about an opponent
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
– For example in 1940 the population of just the larger potential belligerents looked like this• Germany - 87 million
• UK – 45 million• France – 40 million• USSR – 197 million• US – 132 million• Total – 414 million
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Total war and the nature of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized– Like Japan Germany had no concept of what
total war meant– They failed to fully mobilize their industrial
base– The wasted resources on pointless projects
such as• V1 and V2• Panther and Tiger tanks
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
– From 1941 to 1945 Germany and the Allied nations produced the following• Aircraft production
– Germany – 120,000– UK – 131,000– US – 325,000– USSR – 158,000
• Armored vehicle production– Germany – 50,000– UK – 20,000– US – 100,000– USSR – 106,000
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact• Despite the obvious demographic and
industrial disadvantages Germany would have they assumed their superior tactics and spirit would overcome this
• The opposing forces, in particular the USSR and the US, were assumed to be weak and easily frightened by high losses of men and material
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Inattention to intelligence gathering– The Germans assumed, they did not collect
and analyze, that the maximum number of divisions the USSR could create was 100
– The USSR created almost 600 during the war in addition to the hundreds that existed
– Constantly during the war the Germans stated that the USSR was out of reinforcements
– They continued this until 8 May 1945
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany
• Inattention to logistics– The best summary statistic that demonstrates
the appalling lack of preparation by Germany to fight a modern mobile war that would be fought on a worldwide basis is a comparison of the number of horses they used to the number used by the US• Germany – 2,750,000• US - 0
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany Should Have
• What should Germany have done instead of what they did
• Within the context of European history the war was likely inevitable
• Once begun trade should have continued with the USSR while the UK was isolated by using the Mediterranean strategy
• War should never have been declared against the US
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany Should Have
• The territories between Poland and Russia that had been incorporated by force into the USSR should have been turned on the Russians
• Once the Mediterranean Sea was turned into an Axis lake there would have been no need, other than ideological, to attack the USSR for their resources
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany Should Have
• There was never any hope that Germany would perform a rational analysis of their situation and develop a strategy based on that analysis as they did after the war
• That analysis resulted in the current German approach of supplying high quality products to a global market through a free trade system
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Germany Should Have
• The irrational ideological basis of the German political system as well as the desire for revenge prevented this type of analysis
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Rephrasing These
• We accessed a military strategy using these questions– Failure to assess all possible risks– Failure to examine basic facts about an
opponent– Failure to understand what the term total war
means
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Rephrasing These
– Failure to understand the capabilities of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized
– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact
– Inattention to intelligence gathering– Inattention to logistics
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Rephrasing These
• To make it more clear we can rephrase these slightly to apply them directly to business rather than military strategy
• This results in their reading as– Failure to assess all possible risks – What
risks does the organization’s strategy entail?– Failure to examine basic facts about an
opponent – Do you clearly and completely know what our competition is capable of
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Rephrasing These
– Failure to understand what the term total war means – If we want to control the market for our product what must we be prepared to do
– Failure to understand the capabilities of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized – What assistance will our competitor receive from their home government
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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Rephrasing These
– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact – Assuming away problems just because we do not known how to deal with them
– Inattention to intelligence gathering – See above, do we really know what is going on in our industry
Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com
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