Strategic Workforce Planning & Talent Management

Seminar & Exposition 2015

Dr. Gerard Evers

Strategic Workforce Planning: what and how

AHRA Seminar SWP & TM

Dr. Gerard Evers Oktober 23 2015

08.45-09.15

Aruba

Dr. Gerard Evers• Professor in Human Capital Valuation • Econometrician • Editor of several HR-journals • Director EuroHRM

Tilburgseweg 117 5051 AC Goirle gerard@eurohrm.nl 00316 53465225

Several books on HR planning

1993: HR3P 1999: strategy 2014: scenarios

Headlines

• WHY – Why SWP ?

• HOW – processes, data

• WHAT – Products, tools, instruments

6http://www.ted.com/talks/simon_sinek_how_great_leaders_inspire_action?language=nl

Wake-up call: understanding the importance

What will be important developments in the next years?

• Ageing and labour market consequences • Vitality, sustainable employability • Wage costs, budget steering • Flexibility and income/work security • Please add your own…

Strategic Organisation Policy

Strategic HR-Policy

PIOFACH: people, import,

organisation, finance,

automation, communication,

housing.

Strategic HR Planning

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there Lewis Caroll, “Alice in Wonderland”

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Now

Future

Formation Actual workforce

Desired formation

Vis

ieio

n, m

issi

on,

stra

tegy

, E

nviro

nmen

t, et

c.

K³R

Dynam

iek IDU

DemandInternal

Expected workforce

Cocktail of policies,

instruments and actions

ScenarioScenario

Gaps

Vacancy Abundancy

ExternalSupply

K³RK³R

K³R

Policy discussion

- Quantity - Quality - Costs - Flexibility

K³R =

Scenario

automation, outsourcing

Recruitment training, mobility

flexpool, etc

Ageing Mobility School leavers Business cycle Etc.

1

4

25

637

8

SWP building stones

SWP = K3R = chess on 4 boards

1. Right size: quantitative (hands) 2. Right shape: qualitative (brains) 3. Right costs: costs (dollars, euro’s) 4. Right agility: flexibility

But it should be consumable…

SWP, Procrustes and tailor-made

• Many experiences in over 300 organisations. Differences in complexity and in degree of pragmatism. Anything goes….

• SWP should not become a Procrustes’ bed.

• SWP is tailor-made work.

Proces Data Product

SWP and proces

• Support from line managers and finance departments.

• Position in Planning & Control cyclus

• Position in HR-cyclus

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Generic SWP (environment, scenarios, strategy, budgets Consolidating decentral outcomes and aggregate to organisation level Projectmanagement (planning, communication, support)

SWP decentral Translate central to decentral, finetuning, operationalisation

Cen

tral

Dec

entr

al

Combination central and decentral

SPP and data

• How can you find, process and analyse relevant data? Cross-sectional and also longitudinal?

• How can you combine HR data with financial data and other Big Data…

• How to combine quantitative and qualitative data (like fleet test)

What do you see in the data?

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SWP and product• Relation with organisation strategy: scenario’s and

positioning

• Present formation, PFM, job title mix

• Fleet test / HR3P

• Models for future labour supply • Models for future labour demand • Simulation models with possible variants

How to determine future formation (your future dream team)

At the level of job titles, there are 5 techniques:

• Extrapolation • Proportional cutting (Dutch: kaasschaaf) • Elbow-Machiavellism: hawks and doves • Via the product-dimension (U-turn) • Idem, including several scenario’s

Present formation: γνῶθι σεαυτόν (gnothi seauton)

• What do we produce: core tasks and products?

• Who contributes labour for this (primary job titles, not overhead)?

• How do you produce each product, with how much labour (job title mix)?

Products/Job title Matrix (2015)

product Job title A Job title B Job title C Total # hours

Product 1 7.000 64.000 16.000 87.000

Product 2 28.000 16.000 20.000 64.000

Product 3 35.000 0 4.000 39.000

total 70.000 80.000 40.000 190.000

WHAT

WHO

HOW

SWP : Metrics & Analytics

What, who, how: the present machinery (Metrics);

What if… SWP simulates also future possibilities (Analytics).

Scenario’s: not SWOT but TOWS

• Analyse outside-in • Strategy: plan A, B, C, D, instead of “JWWH”

• Future is not predictable, however it is imaginable

What will be the effects on product volumes?

Strategy and positioning

Operational Excellence

Operational Excellence

Customer Intimacy

Customer Intimacy

Product Leadership

Product Leadership

What should be effects for desired future job title mix?

The U-turn and steering wheels

l

Net hours per job title

2015

Job title mix 2015

Desired job title -mix

2018

Products 2015 Products 2018

Net hours per job title, 2018

3

2

4

5

6

FTE per job title 2015

Desired FTE per job title 2018

Present GNT

New desired GNT

1 8

PJT 2015

7

?????

3

Scenarios1

2

3

Building stone 4

Information about size and characteristics of the actual workforce

Also its quality, costs and agility

And about its dynamics (Inflow, Throughflow, Outflow)

Quality: the Fleet test

Evers (1993), HR3P, the HR Performance-Potential-Portfolio approach

The HR3P – matrix Present performance

potential bad moderate fine excellent

No potential Peter, Sharita

Susan, Dick

Mary, Patricia

Henk & Ingrid

Moderate potential

Ayla, Pip Irene Florence

Alice, Chuck

Good potential

Sven Tommy

Excellent potential

Jacques Geert-Jan, Jorieke

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HR3P

underperformers 31% diesels 44%

question marks 5% stars 20%

Performancelevel low high

low

high

Potential

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Building Stone 7: Expected gaps

1. What will be gaps within 3-5 years?

2. Make a distinction between quantitative gaps, qualitative gaps, cost gaps and agility gaps.

Example gap analysis

dimension Desired formation Expected workforce

solutions

quantitative 400 fte 500 persons; 350 fte

qualitative High on entrepeneurship

Moderate level

costs 30 mln 28 mln

flexibility 80 fte temporary 20 fte temporary

Building Stone 8: Solutions

1. SWP is self-denying prophecy

2. Cocktail: several instruments available. 3. Rubik-puzzle

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With SWP, there is a picture

“Key-players” • Retention plan:

• MD • Compensation, bonus • Training

“To be moved” • Assess potential • Development plans • Mobility plan • Outplacement

“Present core” • Assess potential • Development plans • Mobility plan • Outplacement plan

“Prospects” • Recruitment program • Training • Collaboration with external suppliers“Unused potential”

• Alternative employment • Temporary detachment • Retention policy

“temporary forces” • short term contracts • detached workers from elsewhere

“Most wanted” • Recruitment • MD/TD • Training

Needed in future

Now present

Now needed

1

2

3

4

5

7

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