Strategic Regional Analysis

Overview FNE SW NE NW SE Appendix

Strategic Regional Analysis Denver Public Schools 10/17/11

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Strategic Regional Analysis Objectives

In order to achieve the goals of the 2010 Denver Plan . . .

. . . We are committed to deepening and accelerating student achievement results so that all students graduate from DPS prepared for college or work. We provide high Quality New Schools in every neighborhood by ensuring necessary supports to improve existing schools, including implementing turnaround strategies when appropriate, and welcoming promising new schools to meet district needs through the Call for Quality New Schools process.

Objectives of this Strategic Regional Analysis presentation

• Develop common understanding of the data for each region and what it tells us about some of the most pressing regional needs (demographic, performance, other)

• Understand how these needs – along with guidance from parents and communities – drive strategies and staff recommendations to the Board regarding school turnaround, new school approval and placement, allocation of capital funding for facility improvements, and charter renewals over the next 12 months

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Overview

Exec Summary


Summary of key board decisions in November 2011 supported by this analysis

FNE

• Consideration of new school applications (Sims Fayola, Monarch Montessori)

• Northeast Academy Quality Assurance Review

SW

• Charter renewals: West Denver Prep Harvey Park, Kipp Sunshine Peak, Kipp Collegiate HS

NE

• Consideration of Manual 6-12 configuration

• Approval of shared boundaries, grade configuration changes for schools in Manual area

• Consideration of McAuliffe 6-8 program

• Approval of McAuliffe MS

NW

• Charter renewals: Cesar Chavez, Colorado HS, Escuela Tlateloco, Justice HS, Life Skills

• Consideration of new school applications (Four Winds)

• Approval of West Leadership Academy 6-12 plan

• Approval of West Campus 6-12 boundary

SE

• Placement of Rocky Mtn Prep (approved in June)

• Placement of C3 (approved in June)

Important: note that the SRA is not considered a factor in charter renewals; they are included here only in the extent to which their performance is reflected in some of the regional summaries. 3

Exec Summary

Overview


Region Key gaps Mostly Addressed by changes in progress

Addressed by Nov.

decisions

Needs to be

addressed in future

Notes

FNE Demographic gaps Need 250 elementary seats in Montbello by 2011-12

Need for up to 700 elementary seats (primarily in GVR) by 2014-15, with a portion needed sooner, depending on development

Demographic/capture gaps Need for up to 1,000 MS and HS seats by 2014-15 to address population growth and capture rate issues

Offerings approved should meet need; additional facilities needed to meet demand

Performance gaps •Need for about 700 high performing elementary seats (to address schools on probation – red)

Continuous improvement at schools key to addressing issue

•Need for about 100-200 high performing middle school seats and continuous improvement at yellow schools

•Need small option to address needs of students who are over 18 and more than 2 years off-track

SW Demographic/ capture gaps Need for approximately 300- 500 E-5 seats over 5 years

KIPP elementary to help; need capacity solutions as well

Need for 500 6-12 seats by 2015 (to meet demographic growth) and 500-1,000 seats to address capture rates

West Academies, WDP @ Lutheran and DSST to address much of need

Performance gaps Need 500-1,000 seats to address most serious elementary performance needs in the region

Continuous improvement at schools key to addressing issue

900 middle school seats on priority watch (orange) Continuous improvement; boundary change for Kepner to help

Need for continued improvement of high school options and focused option to meet needs of students who are 18+ and off-track.

Summary of major gaps by region (see regions for details)

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Exec Summary

Overview


Region Key gaps Mostly Addressed by changes in progress

Addressed by Nov.

decisions

Needs to be

addressed in future

Notes

NE Demographic gaps •Need for approximately 1,200-1,600 seats at all levels in Stapleton to meet growth (by 2014-15

Will need future school construction to meet the need.

Capture gaps •Some need for middle years options to capture students choicing out of the Manual HS area

Performance gaps Need for 400-700 elementary seats to address most severe performance issues and up to 200-250 middle school seats

Continuous improvement at schools key to addressing issue;

Need for additional alternative option (100-200 seats) to serve students who are older and relatively close to graduation (segment 4b)

NW Demographic gaps •Capacity issues at some elementary schools in the region

Capture gaps •Need for up to 500 high performing middle school seats to address capture rate gaps.

West Acacdemies, to address much of need

Performance gaps Need for 1,400 elementary spots to address most serious performance issues (red and orange together)

Continuing improvement at schools key to addressing issue

Need for 400 middle years seats to address most serious performance options

West Acacdemies, to address much of need

Need for about 700 seats to address most serious performance issues, particular concerns at some of the alt ed programs.

SE Demographic/ capture gaps •Need for 500- 1,000 elementary seats to address demographic growth (in Far SE and in Cory area)

Summary of major gaps by region (see regions for details)

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Exec Summary

Overview


How the Strategic Regional Analysis is organized

How the gaps are organized

• Demographic gap: compares the number of DPS students today (and forecast in 5 years) to the number of seats available in the region

• Capture gap: identifies whether students are leaving the region for other offerings, indicating a potential need for new/different offerings targeted to attract and retain students.

• Performance gap: identifies gaps in the performance of the schools in the region

• Gaps in alternative education: new to the SRA this year, we’ve taken a particular focus on gaps in our alternative education, recognizing that the needs of students who are off-track are not all the same

Other important notes

• Starting with the May 2011 SRA, we have slightly changed the regions to better align with current feeder patterns and community conversations. The biggest change is in the Southwest - before the “Southwest” region cut the West High School boundary down the middle, and now the West High School boundary is intact and entirely located in the NW region.

• The Census Bureau has made available many data elements from the 2010 census, including age and ethnicity by block group. We’ve used that data here to the extent possible.

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Overview

Exec Summary


Timeline for regional strategies

• Each spring and fall, DPS staff will update Strategic Regional Analysis to identify most pressing needs to drive regional strategy and decisions regarding school placement, new schools and capital expenditures (where applicable).

• *Note that in some cases, staff may be providing facility recommendations in June.

June 2011 November2011

•Approval of schools in “Call for Quality New Schools” application •Regional designations of approved schools*

Board decisions •Approval of school placements •Decisions on boundary changes, grade configurations etc •Charter renewals •Fall Charter application decisions

•Community meetings in West Area, Southeast, Manual area, and others have occurred , with the goal of getting feedback and direction from community

May 2011

•SRA presentation to identify gaps in each region

September/ October 2011

•Updated SRA with new SPF data for 2010-11 school year •Charter Applications due for fall cycle

Key Milestones

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Overview

Exec Summary


• Overall, we saw declines in rates of growth between 2000 and 2010 for both Total Population and SAP, but are seeing increased rates of growth for children aged 0-4. This should provide continued, robust elementary grade growth

• Generally, though, Denver is aging: the median age for Denver county has increased from 33.1 in 2000 to 33.7 in 2010.

• Note that before census came out most 3rd party data providers, including State Demographer, had projected much higher student age population growth that what we saw 8

19% 8%

15%

23%

9%

2%

Percent growth between census years

School age population grew over past decade, but at a slower rate than expected

Overview

Demographics


Capture rates have improved significantly over past decade

• Capture rates have improved significantly over the past 10 years, meaning that DPS enrollment has grown at a much faster rate than the overall student age population.

• In some regions, like the FNE, we don’t expect capture rate to increase much more (though .

• Although the Southeast has seen the greatest growth in capture rates since 2000, it still has the lowest capture rates in Denver.

• Preliminary enrollment numbers this year appear to be about 2,000 higher than last year (used above), for an overall growth over 3 years of 6,900 students, or a 9% growth.

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Region 2000 2010

FNE 88% 89%

NNE 75% 81%

SE 59% 70%

SW 74% 79%

NW 81% 85%

County 76% 81%

Student Age Population

Capture Rate

Overview

Demographics

Data from DPS and U.S. Census

*Capture rate is students living in the region and attending any DPS school divided by total school age residents living in the region.

*EC numbers not included because DPS has limited funding to provide seats


And we expect to add another 5,000 students over next 4 years and will likely need additional capacity to meet this growth

• From 2010 to 2014-15 school year, we expect to add about 4,500 to 5,000 students, including an additional 2,000 students this year

• We expect continued enrollment growth, but at a slower pace because of a slowing growth in countywide total population and student age population. In several of our regions, our capture rates are currently very high and there is little growth opportunity

• Without additional funding, we anticipate ECE enrollment to be roughly flat. Note that to the extent that we are able to add ECE funding, we could need an additional 500-1,000 seats to meet current unmet demand

• While we assume our enrollment increase to be about 6%, we assume school age population growth will grow by 3.5% over the next five years, resulting in capture rate increase from 81% to 84%

• Generally, we are expecting growth in regions where school capacity is already strained, like FNE, SE, and SW

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Overview

Demographics


School Performance Across Regions

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Overview

Performance

- Note that several of the schools of greatest concern (red, orange) have undergone transformation or replacement this year (Ford, Noel, Martinez, etc)


Despite significant improvement, variation exists in school performance across regions

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• The bottom graph shows 2011 SPF data, which measures performance for the 2010-11 school year. Note that there is a new category –”Accredited on Priority Watch,” in orange, which identifies schools of concern.

• Not included are new schools that don’t yet have an SPF rating

Overview

Performance

Enrollment by 2010 SPF

Enrollment by 2011 SPF


How school performance has changed by region from 2007-08 to 2010-11

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• How to read the chart on the left: 23 or 53% of the schools in the East-GW-Manual area (NNE) improved their SPF score since 2008

• Comments below do not include alternative schools: • For the first time since we introduced the SPF in 2008, we have more than half of our schools (53%) that are in

either the blue “Distinguished” or green “Meets Expectations” categories. • 74 of schools are meeting or exceeding expectations in 2011, up from 65 in 2010 • 77 or 55% of schools have improved since 2010

• Equally important, the number of schools receiving the lowest “Accredited on Probation” or “Red” rating fell for the third consecutive year. Since the SPF’s introduction in 2008, the number of Probation schools has been cut by 60%, from 30 to 12. And of those 12 schools with a “red” rating on this year’s SPF, six of them either closed at the end of last school year or are in the process of being phased out.

Data from School Performance Framework

Overview

Performance


Graduation rate one key indicator of post graduate success; CDE calculation masks strong improvements for 9th grade cohort

• The most recent on-time graduation rate from CDE is 51.8%, up from 46.4%

• However, CDE graduation rates mask the significant progress of students who have started with DPS in 9th grade.

• The most current four year cohort indicates that 2,391 or 63% of first time 9th grade students graduate within 4 years (66% or 2,487 complete).

• Note that these rates account for students who transferred out of DPS without dropping out (they are removed from both numerator and denominator)

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Overview

% of First Year Freshmen who Graduate DPS 4 years later

Post Secondary Readiness


While there is need for significant improvement, we are also seeing large reductions in 9th grade repeaters, an early indicator of potential graduation rate gains

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• 9th Grade October Count repeat population has decreased by 570 since 2009-10. Repeaters now make up 19% of the 9th grade population, down from 31% in 2006, an early indicator of potential gains in graduation rates

• The number of repeating 9th grade students has been cut in half since 2006

• End of year data for the 2010-11 year is still considered preliminary and is subject to change.

Overview



But we know that further improvement depends on keeping more students on track to graduate

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Key points • High school dropouts are heavily influenced by a student’s ability to progress and graduate with their class. Students who are 60 or

more credits off account for 77.4% of all high school dropouts • Over the past three years, the number of off track students has decreased from to 43% to 41%. • The strong relationship between off-track status and dropping out has informed new efforts to pinpoint off track students and

individualize programs to get them back on track.

Note: Missing transcripts account for 4,665 records (19.4%) and 818 dropout records(36.5%) Dropout rate as defined here and by CDE is an annual likelihood, to which students are exposed over 4 years. See appendix for off-track students by region

Overview


28%

10%

5%

0.4%

Likelihood of dropping out within one year


So, we’ve divided the off-track student population into groups based on need to better align our offerings

Not all off-track students are alike and therefore we need to make sure that our alternative options are meeting the needs of our off-track students.

• For example, students who are 18+ and more than 2 years off-track (see “old and far” below) tend to need schooling that is flexible to heavy work schedules, while 9th graders who’ve failed a semester may still be able to engage with their current setting, but need significant opportunities to catch up across multiple areas (difficult to provide in traditional setting)

Below, in concert with a national group, we’ve divided the off-track students into groups based on need so we can better align our alternative programs to their needs.

Segment Description Suggested Intervention needed

Annual Dropout Rate

#1: 7th and 8th graders demonstrating key risk factors (from Hopkins) - Very clear plan for transition to proper school

2a. 9th

graders who are slipping: demonstrating key risk factors but are still less than 30 credits off track

Current school: Assessment and intervention needed mid-way through semester 1

12%

2b. 9th

graders who are falling: They have risk factors and are more than 30 credits behind

Current school: Assessment needed at semester Alternative settings: portion will need alternate setting

20%

3. Young and far: 16-17/ 2 or more years off track Alternative settings 34%

4a. Older and very close: 17 and less than 30 credits off track Finish at current school: Clear plan for each student - Some will need engagement centers 19%

4b. Older and close enough to graduate, but maybe not with their class: (17+, 30 – 120 credits off track)

Finish at current school, though likely with later class Alternative setting: engagement center 33%

5. Older and far: 18+/ ≥ 2 years off track Alternative setting 40%

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Overview



And identified key gaps in our alternative education programming

Conclusions • Numbers above from 2009-10; note that in some segments numbers of students have dropped (e.g. 4b has dropped by about 200

students) • Overall, there are approximately 3,200 alternative seats (2a and 4a seats not shown above) to serve the 5,451 students who should likely

be attending alternative programs. Not shown in the table above are ASCENT (50) and Denver Online (108) and centers for adjudicated youth.

• The biggest gaps are in segments 2b and 4b, where there are nearly 2,000 seats of unmet demand, followed by segment 5 • Options in segment 5 do not tend to be near where students live Recommendations • Overall, recommend a balance between reducing number of students in each segment through targeted intervention before they become

significantly off-track and additional alternative offerings. • In particular: • 2b: develop strong 9th grade strategy at traditional schools (incl charters) to prevent students from falling this far off-track • 4b: Would recommend beginning search for additional options to serve segment 4b: are engagement centers the only option? • Expand and focus multiple pathways centers to focus on 2b and 3. • Segment 5: add additional 1-2 options to help focus on this group of students

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A. 09-10

population

B.09-10

dropout Total (A+B) Offerings Seats Gaps

Segment 2.b

At risk 9th ≥ 0.5 year off track (>30

credits) 1,309 293 1,602

Traditional School (Credit Recovery)

Alternative settings: Colorado

High,CLA,MPC(Summit+Vista+DC21) 703 -900

Segment 3 16-17/≥2 years off track 886 95 981

MPC(Summit+Vista+DC21),CLA,Life Skills,Colorado

High 793 -188

Segment 4.b 17+/31-120credits off track 1,529 349 1,878

Alternative settings: Engagement centers,Life Skills,

Colorado High 992 -886

Segment 5 18+/≥2 years off track 620 370 990

Alternative Settings: Emily Griffith Opportunity School,

Life Skills, Colorado High 450 -540

4,344 1,107 5,451 2,938 -2,514

Demand Supply

Segment

Total 9-12

*Not shown in the table above are ASCENT (50), Denver Online (108). Schools that serve students with behavior or legal issues ( Gilliam, and Ridgeview)

and teen mothers (Crittenton) have been distributed across segments 2b,3,4,5.

Overview



The Far Northeast

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FNE

• Map shows 2011 SPF rating of all schools in the area

• Note that are significant numbers of changed offerings in the area for the current 2011-12 school year

Overview FNE SW NE NW SE Appendix Gaps and strategies

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Overall regional strategy to meet gaps Major changes approved in November -after extensive engagement with parents and community- have opened for 2011-12 school year should meet many of the performance gaps outlined here. Strong need to continue to monitor implementation of these new schools and provide support to all schools. Importantly, DPS does not have enough capacity in the region to meet growing needs over the next 5 years.

Gaps Steps taken; strategies going forward Demographic gaps Need 250 elementary seats in Montbello by 2011-12

•Escalante Biggs Early Ed Center in operation: overcrowding has been relieved at participating schools

Need for up to 700 elementary seats (primarily in GVR) by 2014-15, with a portion needed sooner, depending on development

•Utilize current bond funding to plan for new facilities, stay closely aligned with developers on planned growth; encourage new charter school applicants when possible to seek their own facilities, at least on a temporary basis. •Will likely need construction of new elementary school in GVR and potentially other smaller capacity increases at other facilities

Demographic/capture gaps Need for up to 1,000 MS and HS seats by 2014-15 to address population growth and capture rate issues (i.e. significant number of students leaving the region).

•Lease of Samsonite facility for High Tech expected to ease capacity pressure slightly; utilize next bond to deliver additional capacity; encourage new charter applicants seek their own facilities at least until permanent district facilities are available. •Already approved 2 WDP middle schools and Miller McCoy 6-12 for 2013-14 school year; additional options not expected to be needed •However, will likely need construction of additional middle and high school seats, given capacity constraints to meet these needs •Vista MPC set to start with grades 6-12 in 2011-12 in new Evie Dennis pod, DSST to start 9th grade in 2011, have drawn students back to the region, MLK adding some additional HS capacity, addition of DCIS 6-12 program and Collegiate Prep at Montbello campus, Noel Arts (6-12) and High Tech High programs •Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs.

Performance gaps •Need for about 700 high performing elementary seats (to address schools on probation – red)

•Lowest performing schools currently receiving additional support •Closely monitor and provide support to turn-around (McGlone, Green Valley) and replacement offerings (DCIS elementary, SOAR II) opening for 2011-12 year and phase-out schools (Ford, Oakland) approved for 2011-12 school year. •Identify and address other elementary level performance issues •Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs.

•Need for about 100-200 high performing middle school seats and continuous improvement at yellow schools

•Lowest performing schools currently receiving additional support •Closely monitor and provide support to new & replacement offerings (DCIS, Noel Arts, KIPP, Collegiate Prep, High Tech ) set to open for 2011-12 year and phase-out schools (Montbello, Noel) approved for 2011-12 school year. •Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs.

•Need small option to address needs of students who are over 18 and more than 2 years off-track

•Consider utilizing call for Quality New Schools to identify promising offerings

FNE


Demographic gaps in the FNE: growth will likely require additional facility construction

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Note that there has traditionally been significantly more choice out of FNE than choice in – if two were to equalize, secondary schools would be at 100% capacity. Further, 6-12 facilities appear under-utilized because some options (like DSST) are still adding grades

FNE

Demographic gaps

• Need for up to 700 elementary seats (primarily in GVR) by 2014-15, with a portion needed sooner, depending on pace of development and population growth. We expect a need for additional facility construction in this timeframe.

• Need for up to 1,000 MS and HS seats by 2014-15 to address to address population growth and capture rate issues. We expect likely need for additional facility construction in this timeframe. However, offerings already approved will likely meet much of this demand

• Note that construction & leasing underway in the region partially addresses the needs outlined above

– 300 seat Escalante-Biggs Early Education Center in Montbello expected to reduce capacity utilization by 3-4 percentage points at the elementary level and is expected to meet capacity needs in Montbello for next several years

– New 450 seat pod (for Vista) at Evie Dennis is providing needed capacity at the middle and high school level

– Lease of approximately 300 seats in Samsonite facility will also provide relief at the middle and high level

Note: the graph above left represents those students living in the region and attending any DPS school;

graph on right shows capacity utilization based on attending students


Capture rate gaps in the FNE – early signs show that improved options have retained more students in the area

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FNE

44153%

17321%

21126%

Far Northeast 2009 8th Graders' Membership in 2010

Transition StudentsMatriculating w/in FNE

Leave DPS

Matriculate to another regionwithin DPS

- In 2010, about 1,300 more high school students left the region than came into it for high school

- In particular, just over half of all FNE 8th graders stayed in the FNE for high school, one indication of the lack of quality options

- This year, with the new offerings, 20% more FNE 8th graders are staying for 9th grade within the FNE, compared to last (based on prelim data)

- Overall about 500 more students are enrolled in 6-12 options this year than last.

*Transition data reflects current enrollment and is considered preliminary until official October Count


Performance gaps in the FNE

• Gap #1: Need for about 700 high performing elementary seats to address most serious performance issues (red and orange)

• Specifically, need to address continued red seats in region that were not addressed (Northeast Academy, Maxwell)

• Not rated seats are those in our new offerings

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• Gap #2: Need for about 200 high performing middle years seats to address most serious performance issues (red and orange)

• Note that Noel (in phaseout) constitutes most of the remaining red seats in FNE


FNE

• Gap #3: Need continued improvement in schools that are yellow on the SPF


Far Northeast

DPS Overall


Far Northeast gaps

Alternative education gaps • One key goal of new offerings, opened this year, is to reduce the number of students who end up

significantly off-track. • Nonetheless, there are no options for students who are in the older and far group – those students

who are 18+ and 2 or more years behind. • Consider small program to serve students in segment 5 who are old and significantly off track. • Consider exapanding and focusing VISTA to serve 300-400 students and is focused on serving

segments 2b and 3. • As new offerings come online, consider additional, small engagement center in area (depending on

success of new programs in keeping students on track)

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A. 09-10

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B.09-10


Segment 2b


credits) 273 42 315

Traditional Schools (credit recovery)

Alternative settings: VISTA 125 -190

Segment 3 16/≥2 years off track 159 68 227 VISTA 125 -102

Segment 4.b 17+/31-90credits off track 222 61 283 Engagement center: Montbello 150 -133

Segment 5 17+/≥2 years off track 88 42 130 None 0 -130

Total 9-12 742 213 955 400 -555

Demand Supply

Segment



FNE


Upcoming BOE decisions

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FNE

Decision Type Schools

Turnaround None

Facility Placement 2 WDP programs

Charter Renewals None

New School Applications/ART (Applicant Review Team) Reviews

- Sims Fayola (6-12) - Monarch Montessori (E-5)

Other None

Other notes: - Northeast Academy is undergoing a Quality Assurance Review

Miller McCoy 6-12 and 2 West Denver Prep middle schools approved in June to open in 2012-13; will address middle school gaps for next several years. However, DPS remains very facility constrained at the 6-12 level.

- Please note that Fall Charter applicants will not necessarily have access to DPS facilities


The Southwest

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SW


Gaps and strategies

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Overall regional strategy Deepen and accelerate the positive growth trends seen in the region, identify additional capacity solutions at the elementary and middle years using bond funding as available. Identify the right, rigorous program offerings particularly at the middle and high school level to meet diverse student needs, utilizing community input.

SW

Gaps Steps taken; strategies going forward Demographic gaps Need for approximately 300- 500 E-5 seats over 5 years

• Given emerging facility constraints at elementary and middle level, explore new facility options and identify attractive options to meet demand in areas to the West of Federal. Consider minor boundary changes to balance enrollment among elementary schools.

• Open KIPP elementary

Need for 500 6-12 seats by 2015 (to meet demographic growth)

• Given facility constraints at the middle level, explore new facility options with external partners • Placement of DSST IV, WDP @ Lutheran, and the two West Campus options should meet much of

this need

Capture gaps Need for up to 500-1,000 additional seats of MS and HS options to help address capture rate issues in the SW. Note that we have seats available in key facilities (Kennedy, and West Campus)

• Placement of DSST IV, WDP @ Lutheran, and the two West Campus options will provide significantly improved offerings and are expected to meet much of this need

• Expansion at Lutheran and Colorado Heights will provide needed capacity

Performance gaps Need 500-1,000 seats to address most serious elementary performance needs in the region

• Deepen and accelerate positive growth trends at existing schools • Lowest performing schools (red and some yellow) currently receiving additional support, hosting

meetings about performance with staff and communities, participating in external reviews to identify root causes for performance issues and developing plans to address them

900 middle school seats on priority watch (orange) – need for continued improvement at the middle years and additional high-performing options.

• Deepen and accelerate positive growth trends at existing schools • Address performance and overcrowding issues at Kepner in part by reducing boundary • Both Henry and Kepner receiving additional support

Need for continued improvement of high school options as well as focused option to meet needs of students who are 18+ and significantly off-track.

• Deepen and accelerate positive growth trends at existing schools • Summit Academy opened in 2010 with grades 9-12, • Utilize Call for Quality New Schools process to identify candidates for alternative new options;

seek parent/community input on types of offerings that would be most attractive.


Demographic gaps in the Southwest: expecting to need an additional 300-500 elementary seats in region

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SW

Demographic gaps • Need for approximately 300-500 E-5 seats to address overcrowding, demographic need and students leaving the region, particularly

focused in the central part of the region. Note that overcrowding at elementary level mostly centered West of Federal blvd. • KIPP Elementary will help relieve pressure, but may also need targeted capacity solutions at key elementary schools • Need for 500 6-12 seats by 2015 across the region as student bubble moves through and high utilization rates particularly at the

middle school level. Note that there is available capacity in some key facilities in the region and additional construction at Lutheran and Colorado Heights and placement of WDP, and DSST IV will likely take care of most of this need, along with changes at West Campus.

• Low utilization rates at high school driven by open capacity at Kennedy. • Note that both Kepner (1,100 students) and Henry (900 students) are low performing middle schools and are very full; boundary

changes at Kepner are needed to help reduce size and better meet the needs of students in the building.




Performance gaps : immediate need for high performing middle and high options

• Performance gap #1: need up to 500-1,000 elementary seats to address the most serious performance issues (red and orange)

• Worth noting, however, that this region has seen largest increase in performance of any of the regions: for example, in 2008, 2,000 elementary seats were on probation and in 2009, 600 were on probation (red).

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• Performance gap #3: Need for HS options to continue and sharpen focus on post-secondary readiness – addition of Summit should help address this issue.

• Need to see continued improvement at Lincoln and Kennedy

• Area remains one of highest for dropout concentrations

SW

• Performance gap #2: 900 middle school seats in “on probation” category and an additional 1,100 in priority watch (orange)

• Kepner is quickly approaching capacity and is on priority watch (orange); Henry is now on probation (red) and is also at capacity.

Southwest

DPS Overall



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SW


Turnaround None

Facility Placement KIPP Elementary School

Charter Renewals • KIPP Collegiate • KIPP Sunshine • WDP- Harvey Park


None

Other • Kepner boundary reduction (part of West 6-12 boundary change – see NW region)


The Northeast

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NE

• Note that this area expanded to include all of George Washington’s boundary (where before it included half of it)


Gaps and strategies

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Overall regional strategy Support current turnaround efforts; address serious elementary performance issues; connect with communities west of Colorado Blvd to identify and structure feeder pattern options at the middle and high school level; continue to monitor and update Stapleton projections and plans for new schools to meet extraordinary demographic growth and work with parents in Park Hill and Stapleton to identify best options for their students.

Gaps Steps taken; strategies going forward Demographic gaps •Need for approximately 600 E-5 seats in Stapleton •Need for 300-500 6-8 seats in Stapleton •Need for approximately 500 9-12 seats (Stapleton HS)

•SMIS facility opened this year, which will meet immediate needs for elementary and middle school seats. •Work closely with city and developers to stay on top of continued growth; work with community to identify best options to meet growth and integrate new options into feeder patterns (i.e. Stapleton middle school).

Capture gaps •Some need for middle years options to capture students choicing out of the western portion of the region (Manual HS area)

•Community conversations taking place around increasing coherence of feeder pattern in Manual area and adding feeder for Manual high school. •Strongly consider enrollment zone/shared boundary at secondary level to place all area offerings on level playing field (Manual feeder, Bruce Randolph, DSST and potentially K-8 schools)

•Some need for additional HS slots to address to capture students leaving the Manual area

•DC 21 at Wyman (multiple pathways center) and DSST at Cole likely to help keep students in the region and address this gap

•Potential need for additional Newcomer offerings •Explore possibilities of adding a Newcomer program in other parts of the region to complement Place Bridge program.

Performance gaps Need for 400-700 elementary seats to address most severe performance issues and up to 200-250 middle school seats

•Lowest performing schools (red and some yellow) currently receiving additional support, hosting meetings about performance with staff and communities, participating in external reviews to identify root causes for performance issues and developing plans to address them •Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs •Turnaround strategy underway at Gilpin

Need for additional alternative option (100-200 seats) to serve students who are older and relatively close to graduation (segment 4b)

•DC21 opened in 2011-12 and will meet some needs •Additional alternative option needed to meet needs of student who are older and about a year off-track.

NE


Demographic gaps in NE: high growth in students forecasted, driven by Stapleton development

33

NE

Demographic gaps • New facility for Stapleton (approx 900 seats) will address immediate needs at the elementary and middle levels. • Growth in Stapleton (2,000 students over next 5 years) will likely require additional elementary, middle and high seats by about

2014-15. While funding exists for elementary construction, funding will need to be part of 2012 bond initiative for middle and high seats

• There are significant capacity concerns at elementary schools in the Southern part of the Northeast region. DPS is exploring land options to open additional elementary school in the area (See SE region for details)

Capture gaps • Need for additional middle school option in the Manual boundary




Near Northeast gaps in alternative education programs

Alternative education gaps • Core element of strategy to support students who are significantly off-track is to work aggressively at traditional schools (incl

charters) to reduce the number of students who end up off-track in the first place. • Significant gap in segment 4b – currently no Engagement Centers in the area, or comparable program to serve this group of

students – consider adding offerings to meet need here • Note that this region is close to Emily Griffith, which serves students in segment 5

34



NE

A. 09-10

population

B.09-10


Segment 2.b


credits) 323 28 351

Credit Recovery

Alternative settings: DC21 125 -226

Segment 3 16/≥2 years off track 225 77 302 DC21 ,PREP 125 -177

Segment 4.b 17+/31-90credits off track 361 75 436 PREP 172 -264.5

Segment 5 17+/≥2 years off track 158 53 211 0 -211

Total 9-12 1,067 233 1,300 422 -879

Segment

Demand Supply

Off-track students: supply and demand in the region


NE Performance Gaps

• Performance gap #2: performance of alternative schools continues to be a challenge

• Addition of DC-21 Multiple Pathways center likely to draw widely and improve quality of alternative offerings.

35

NE

Northeast

DPS Overall

Performance gap #1: need 400-700 elementary seats to address the most serious performance issues (orange and red)

Performance gap #2: need 200-250 middle school seats to address the most serious performance issues (orange and red)



36

NE


Turnaround None

Facility Placement None

Charter Renewals Venture Prep


• McAuliffe MS Art Review • Manual MS Art Review

Other •Potential change configuration at Harrington and Columbine to E-5 programs (from E-6) •Regional Shared boundary for Manual/Bruce Randolph •2012-13 boundary proposal for McAuliffe middle school


The Northwest

37

• NW region shown in yellow and is comprised of West and North high school boundaries


NW


Gaps and strategies

38

Overall regional strategy Seek input from communities on key initiatives; aggressively pursue improvement in the performance of elementary and high school offerings; ensure positive results from recently implemented middle year options; continue to maximize use of DPS space whenever possible. Further, work aggressively to improve the alternative options in the area.

Gaps Steps taken; strategies going forward Demographic gaps •Capacity issues at some elementary schools in the region

•Unlikely a new offering will be needed, but will seek to identify capacity solutions where possible.

Capture gaps •Need for up to 500 high performing middle school seats to address capture rate gaps.

•Lake IB ,West Denver Prep, and Skinner options have been successful at keeping more students in the region and have increased performance. •2 new Academies at West – approved in June -- are expected to address this gap

Performance gaps Need for 1,400 elementary spots to address most serious performance issues (red and orange together)

•Lowest performing schools (red and some yellow) currently receiving additional support, hosting meetings about performance with staff and communities, participating in external reviews to identify root causes for performance issues and developing plans to address them •Greenlee is in 2nd year with a new program and turnaround support •Work with community to identify attractive options, analyze data and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs.

Need for 400 middle years seats to address most serious performance options

•Lowest performing schools (red and some yellow) currently receiving additional support •Lake IB and West Denver Prep options add diversity to keep students in the area and increase performance; Lake applied for turnaround funds •Skinner received a SIG grant to add program richness and to drive performance and enrollment increases •2 new Academies at West – approved in June -- are expected to address this gap

Need for about 700 seats to address most serious performance issues, particular concerns at some of the alternative education programs.

•2 new Academies at West – approved in June -- are expected to address this gap •Lowest performing schools (red and some yellow) currently receiving additional support, North High School in turnaround •Examine performance of alternative education programs in area, with goal of significantly improving their ability to get students back on track.

NW


39

NW

Demographic gaps: relatively flat population growth, except in West boundary

• Significant numbers of open seats in the region, though we expect Lake facility to be much better utilized as more students are being drawn to programs in the building. We expect that more attractive offerings proposed for the West Campus will also draw more students and improve utilizations in that building.

Demographic gaps

• Elementary schools in the southwest portion of the region (Cowell, Newlon, and Eagleton) are at capacity and will require monitoring and possible additional capacity. Elementary schools in the northern part of the area are approaching capacity and there may be the potential need to add offerings in the next 2-5 years, though demographic growth there has flattened

• Note that there are several facilities in the area that have unused capacity. WDP will move to North HS. Smedley and Remington are both currently vacant facilities

Northwest overall has grown 4% over the past three years, primarily in the West boundary(6%).




Capture Gaps: Opportunity to Increase Enrollment and reduce choice out with new options at West

40

• Note that we were seeing high rates of choice out in the Lake boundary and with new options ,(Lake IB, WDP Lake, WDP Highlands) we are now seeing improvements to the capture rate in the Lake boundary

• The choice-out of West High school boundary is of particular concern. Of approximately 2,100 high school age students in the boundary, only about 500 attend West, indicating a need to develop more attractive offerings at the West campus (the two Academies approved in June are in year 0 planning)

• Of the 2,300 students in the Kepner MS boundary, fewer than 1,000 attend Kepner (yet Kepner is at capacity).

NW

1546

989

6-8 9-12

Choice out of West boundaryNote that in addition, approximately 400 students from this area attend Kepner (located in SW but the current boundary school for this area)


Performance gaps : strong need for high performing options

• Performance gap #1: need up to 1,400 elementary seats to address the most serious performance issues (red, orange)

41

• Performance gap #2: need up to 500 middle seats to address the most serious performance issues

• Performance of three new middle years options yet to be seen (West Denver Prep(s), Lake IB

• New Academies at West Campus expected to address this gap

• Performance gap #3: need up 1,400 high school seats to address the most serious performance issues

• New Academies at West Campus expected to address this gap

• Yet nearly 700 of the red seats are alternative schools, where we need significant performance improvement

NW

Northwest

DPS Overall



42

NW


Turnaround None

Facility Placement None

Charter Renewals • Cesar Chavez • Colorado HS • Escuela • Justice HS • Life Skills


None

Other Boundary change to extend West 9-12 boundary down to 6-12 level to support new offerings and relieve pressure on Kepner


The Southeast

43

SE

• SE region shown in blue and is made up of South boundary and TJ boundary.



Gaps and strategies

44

Overall regional strategy Improve existing schools, add capacity at the elementary level and add more diverse, better performing middle and high school options where needed.

Gaps Steps taken; strategies going forward Demographic gaps •Need for 500- 1,000 elementary seats to address demographic growth (in Far SE and in Cory area)

•Center for Early Education expanding to provide more relief to nearby schools •Currently exploring land purchases in the Far SE area for elementary school to be built with next bond •6 modular classrooms added over 2 years; Place expanding to use vacated Highline facility for one or three years •Small addition at Slavens to allow school to accommodate growth in boundary students •To address particular shortage in Merrill area, seek to add additional elementary option in that area

Capture gaps Potential need for up to 500 elementary seats to reverse low capture rates in the area

•DLS and DGS – both new elementaries -- are appealing to families likely to leave the district •Add capacity and work with parents and community to understand types of options that would have greatest possibility of attracting students back to region

Need for up to 1,000 seats to address middle and high school capture rates

•Approval of DSST @ Byers should help address capture rates, however significant open capacity available in region •Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs and draw students back to the region

Performance gaps High school options are not yet meeting performance standards

•Work with parents and community to analyze data, improve existing schools, identify attractive options, and utilize turnaround/call for Quality New Schools process to address most serious needs and draw students back to the region

SE


45

SE

Demographic gaps: expecting low growth in most areas except Far Southeast

Demographic gaps • Overall, we have seen a 22% growth in DPS students living in the area in the past 4 years, with even higher growth in Far SE and in South Denver

(Merrill) area • We anticipate the need for between 500-1,000 elementary seats across the region to relieve overcrowding at existing schools and to meet

demographic growth (most concentrated in Far SE area). Addressing these needs requires a broad strategy, including: • Additional land in the Far SE and construction of new elementary school (pending new bond funding) • Full use of space at Knight Center for Early Ed (already happening) • Construction of additional rooms at existing elementaries (addition at Slavens) • Potential for new elementary school located in Merrill Middle School (up for consideration this November)

• However, even with forecast growth in middle and high school enrollment (about 700 students to 2015), currently open capacity will be able to accommodate the need (South, TJ, Grant and to a lesser extent Hamilton have open space)




Focus on South Denver: despite growth in elementary students, significant capacity available at secondary level to serve students

• Over past 4 years, University Park, Cory, Slavens, Steele and Center for Early Education have added 425 students

• Growth has come from boundary students (more families in area and a greater percentage coming to DPS schools

• Boundary students as a percent of Kinder enrollment has increased to alarming levels (80% at Cory, including HGT, 93% at Steele, 80% at Bromwell)

• The result is that unless there are additional options, these schools may not be able to serve their boundary students going forward

46

# of elementary age students in South Denver has grown by 30% in last 4 years . . . .

. . . But there is more than enough capacity to serve the students once they get to middle and high school

4055

2137

6-12 seats in South HS boundary Elementary age students living in SouthHS boundary

• Included in 6-12 seat number are the DSST seats that that will be offered beginning in 2014-15, pending bond funding.

• Even without DSST @ Byers, there are more than enough 6-12 seats for all elementary students living in the area


Capture gaps – significant numbers of students are leaving at 6-12 level

• Chart above shows how many students are choicing out of their neighborhood option the Southeast Region (compared are two subregions within the broader SE region)

• Capture rates at middle and high school level are low, indicating a potential need for improved middle or high school offerings that are able to draw student back to schools in the region. At key transition points, about half of 8th graders are leaving the area for high school. We expect that reinvigorated programs at Merrill and Grant as well as the addition of DSST in 2013-14 (at Byers pending bond funding), will address this gap.

• Capture rates at elementary level are among lowest in the city; area also has one of highest concentrations of private school offerings, indicating a need for up to 500 elementary seats capable of drawing students back to district. We expect that the addition of new programs, like Creativity Challenge Community school will help address this need.

47

SE


Though performance of offerings generally high, need for stronger performance at middle and high school level

• Performance at the high school level still concerning: at TJ and South respectively just 22% and 12% of 9th graders can expect to be enrolled in college and not in remediation 5 years later.

• There may be a need for additional offerings to address some of these performance challenges

48

SE

Southeast

DPS Overall



49


Turnaround None

Facility Placement Creativity Challenge Community School (C3) (K-5) Rocky Mountain Prep

Charter Renewals Highline Academy


None

Other

SE


Appendix: Current schools and background data for FNE

50

• Overall in the region, the number of African American students living in the FNE has remained constant, but the number of Latino students and Anglo students has increased

• Performance data may not be available for new schools

Appendix

School SPF 2011

SPF Growth

2011 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-

11

Preliminary

Enrollment 2011-12 3 yr Growth % ELL % FRL % Minority % SPED

DCIS at Ford EC-2 0 389

SOAR Oakland K-2 0 228

SOAR Green Valley Ranch K-03 235 308 23% 70% 83% 5%

Escalante-Biggs Academy EC-K 0 302

Florida Pitt-Waller K-8 School 47% 50% EC-08 972 971 21% 18% 68% 83% 11%

Omar D. Blair Charter School 69% 72% K-08 800 782 23% 54% 78% 5%

Farrell B. Howell ECE-8 School 58% 64% EC-08 826 847 25% 50% 94% 99% 10%

Archuleta Elementary School 67% 66% EC-05 692 612 16% 52% 87% 92% 11%

Marrama Elementary School 67% 72% EC-05 550 547 9% 36% 81% 84% 14%

Oakland Elementary School 35% 42% EC, 03-05 506 239 7% 40% 93% 94% 13%

Greenwood ECE-8 School 57% 54% EC-08 783 637 9% 55% 91% 96% 5%

Green Valley Elementary 52% 58% EC-5 604 620 -15% 27% 77% 84% 13%

Maxwell Elementary School 33% 32% EC-05 524 511 -7% 52% 93% 97% 12%

Amesse Elementary School 40% 42% EC-05 593 582 17% 52% 95% 97% 6%

Ford Elementary School 26% 28% 3/5 690 293 8% 57% 98% 97% 4%

McGlone 46% 58% EC-5 562 560 -1% 56% 96% 96% 9%

Northeast Academy Charter School 25% 23% K-08 416 384 13% 20% 88% 96% 5%

Vista Academy 6/12 0 190

Martin Luther King Jr. Early College 47% 41% 6/12 1,242 1,211 -9% 23% 84% 92% 10%

Rachel B. Noel Middle School 28% 22% 7/8 679 433 -9% 26% 95% 96% 12%

KIPP Montbello College Prep 1/5 0 99

DSST: Green Valley Ranch MS 93% 91% 6/7 141 285 20% 60% 84% 7%

DCIS at Montbello MS 6 0 229

DCIS at Montbello 9 0 111

Montbello High School 40% 35% 9/12 1,619 1,223 -2% 13% 88% 96% 15%

DSST: Green Valley Ranch 6 0 145

Noel Community Arts School 9 0 187

Collegiate Preparatory Academy 9 0 103

High-Tech Early College 9 0 95

Montbello High School Engagement Center 67% 9/12 0 161 3% 88% 96% 5%

Grand Total 13,676 13,031


Appendix: current schools and background data in the Southwest Region

51

• 16,228 students attend schools in the Southwest

• Greater than district average for Minority, FRL, and ELL students

School (SPF Status)

SPF Total

2010

SPF Status

2010 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-11

Projected

Enrollment

2011-12 APC 2010-11 +/- Seats

3 yr

Growth

Choice Into

School

Choice into School

(as a % of enrollment)

Choice Out of

School

Boundary

Choice out of School

Boundary (as a % of

boundary students) % ELL % FRL % Minority % SPED

Sabin 73% 79% ECE-5 667 673 671 4 17% 460 69% 153 43% 26% 78% 78% 11%

Force 71% 83% ECE-5 568 537 601 33 3% 131 23% 425 49% 47% 93% 92% 8%

Denison 67% 73% ECE-6 433 425 383 (50) 1% 433 100% 0 - 19% 57% 71% 11%

Grant Ranch 63% 60% ECE-8 763 753 736 (27) 11% 272 36% 41 8% 15% 51% 55% 11%

Doull 61% 67% ECE-5 494 491 616 122 5% 138 28% 454 56% 48% 93% 93% 17%

Goldrick 61% 63% ECE-5 624 608 606 (18) 3% 202 32% 356 46% 67% 94% 93% 7%

Johnson 58% 68% ECE-5 417 418 444 27 1% 175 42% 251 51% 57% 96% 94% 8%

Gust 54% 58% ECE-5 630 641 616 (14) 38% 319 51% 280 47% 40% 93% 85% 11%

Valverde 50% 56% ECE-5 397 388 412 15 -12% 142 36% 242 49% 66% 97% 96% 9%

Castro 50% 52% ECE-5 684 675 597 (87) -1% 209 31% 256 35% 66% 97% 92% 9%

Traylor 49% 44% ECE-5 592 592 564 (28) 0% 261 44% 223 40% 20% 64% 76% 9%

College View 46% 46% ECE-5 443 442 437 (6) 2% 152 34% 178 38% 57% 98% 85% 11%

Godsman 44% 48% ECE-5 481 472 561 80 -4% 157 33% 262 45% 54% 97% 94% 7%

Kaiser 43% 40% ECE-5 323 312 470 147 -17% 145 45% 92 34% 21% 77% 68% 21%

CMS 42% 46% ECE-5 670 683 626 (44) 8% 271 40% 280 41% 66% 95% 95% 13%

Schmitt 42% 44% ECE-5 394 383 449 55 -5% 79 20% 255 45% 51% 93% 89% 7%

MSLA - - K-5 179 241 300 121 - 179 100% 0 - 63% 97% 97% 9%

West Denver Prep II-Harvey Park 98% 97% 6-8 218 312 300 82 - 218 100% 0 - 38% 90% 93% 10%

West Denver Prep- Federal 88% 90% 6-8 322 321 330 8 63% 322 100% 0 - 55% 93% 97% 8%

KIPP: Sunshine 69% 72% 5-8 369 370 376 7 7% 369 100% 0 - 63% 96% 99% 9%

Kepner 37% 38% 6-8 1,106 1,100 1,295 189 18% 235 21% 1,393 62% 55% 97% 94% 13%

Henry 28% 19% 6-8 948 900 990 42 11% 417 44% 298 36% 17% 78% 80% 15%

Rishel 21% 25% 7-8 125 0 300 175 -77% 125 100% 0 - 33% 98% 95% 15%

KIPP Collegiate 50% 41% 9-12 226 297 505 279 - 226 100% 0 - 36% 88% 97% 10%

Lincoln 47% 45% 9-12 1,930 1,827 2,050 120 14% 821 43% 1,031 51% 23% 96% 94% 12%

Southwest EC 45% 45% 9-12 315 307 355 40 -21% 315 100% 0 - 10% 82% 86% 9%

Kennedy 44% 55% 9-12 1,126 1,127 1,930 804 -18% 426 38% 546 44% 8% 67% 72% 16%

Summit Academy - - 9-12 131 250 450 319 - 131 100% 0 - 12% 77% 93% 18%

Kunsmiller Arts 32% 26% K-12 653 711 1,112 459 - 653 100% 0 - 27% 77% 77% 13%

Grand Total - - - 16,228 16,256 19,082 2,854 - 7,983 - 7,016 - 40% 86% 87% 11%

Appendix

School SPF 2011

SPF

Growth

2011 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-11

Preliminary


Kunsmiller Creative Arts Academy 42% 40% K-12 653 757 27% 77% 77% 13%

Mathematics & Science Leadership Academy K-04 179 254 63% 97% 97% 9%

College View Elementary School 39% 40% EC-05 443 469 2% 57% 98% 85% 11%

Denison Montessori School 69% 74% EC-06 433 468 1% 19% 57% 71% 11%

Doull Elementary School 69% 76% EC-05 494 521 5% 48% 93% 93% 17%

Grant Ranch ECE-8 School 66% 66% EC-08 763 799 11% 15% 51% 55% 11%

Force Elementary School 61% 68% EC-05 568 557 3% 47% 93% 92% 8%

Godsman Elementary School 46% 48% EC-05 481 487 -4% 54% 97% 94% 7%

Goldrick Elementary School 46% 42% EC-05 624 630 3% 67% 94% 93% 7%

Gust Elementary School 54% 54% EC-05 630 642 38% 40% 93% 85% 11%

Johnson Elementary School 41% 44% EC-05 417 450 1% 57% 96% 94% 8%

Sabin World School 67% 66% EC-05 667 702 17% 26% 78% 78% 11%

Charles M. Schenck (CMS) Community School 29% 23% EC-05 670 704 8% 66% 95% 95% 13%

Schmitt Elementary School 42% 42% EC-05 394 420 -5% 51% 93% 89% 7%

Traylor Elementary School 52% 46% EC-05 592 596 20% 64% 76% 9%

Valverde Elementary School 35% 31% EC-05 397 393 -12% 66% 97% 96% 9%

Castro Elementary School 61% 64% EC-05 684 689 -1% 66% 97% 92% 9%

Kaiser Elementary School 41% 32% EC-05 323 325 -17% 21% 77% 68% 21%

Kepner Middle School 44% 46% 6/8 1,106 1,180 18% 55% 97% 94% 13%

Rishel Middle School 31% 35% Closed 125 0 -77% 33% 98% 95% 15%

Henry World School 36% 30% 6/8 948 907 11% 17% 78% 80% 15%

KIPP Sunshine Peak Academy 69% 73% 5/8 369 372 7% 63% 96% 99% 9%

West Denver Prep - Federal Campus 83% 83% 6/8 322 320 63% 55% 93% 97% 8%

West Denver Prep - Harvey Park Campus 90% 87% 6/8 218 319 38% 90% 93% 10%

Abraham Lincoln High School 45% 45% 9/12 1,930 1,917 14% 23% 96% 94% 12%

John F. Kennedy High School 49% 55% 9/12 1,126 1,197 -18% 8% 67% 72% 16%

Southwest Early College Charter School 48% 50% 9/12 315 282 -21% 10% 82% 86% 9%

KIPP Denver Collegiate High School 40% 37% 9/11 226 329 36% 88% 97% 10%

Abraham Lincoln High School Engagement Center 36% 17% 9/12 0 99 11% 84% 94% 10%

Summit Academy 21% 50% 9/12 131 140 12% 77% 93% 18%



Appendix: Current schools and background data in the Northeast Region

52


Appendix

School SPF 2011

SPF

Growth

2011 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-11

Preliminary


University Prep Academy K-01 0 112

Swigert-McAuliffe International ECE-8 EC-1 0 304 4% 22% 35% 4%

Denver Language School K-03 242 356 5% 15% 34% 4%

Denver Green School 46% 39% EC-3, 6-7 206 339 16% 51% 51% 9%

Cole Arts and Science Academy 55% 65% EC-08 689 627 43% 97% 95% 13%

Place Bridge Academy 47% 57% EC-08 974 1,046 70% 94% 69% 11%

William (Bill) Roberts K-8 School 63% 64% EC-08 752 783 42% 3% 16% 28% 8%

Ashley Elementary School 38% 38% EC-05 345 354 -3% 51% 82% 96% 7%

Barrett Elementary School 41% 52% EC-05 207 223 -17% 38% 95% 96% 16%

Lowry Elementary School 54% 48% EC-05 532 505 16% 13% 38% 45% 7%

Odyssey Charter Elementary School 71% 67% K-08 226 225 1% 1% 28% 43% 4%

Wyatt Edison Charter Elementary School 50% 48% K-08 677 593 6% 42% 85% 96% 8%

Bromwell Elementary School 80% 78% K-05 317 319 -2% 6% 8% 18% 9%

Carson Elementary School 78% 80% EC-05 400 406 18% 8% 19% 31% 15%

Columbine Elementary School 42% 44% EC-06 292 286 -2% 17% 93% 92% 17%

Polaris at Ebert Elementary School 89% 86% K-05 329 332 -3% 3% 9% 21% 4%

Garden Place Elementary School 67% 79% EC-05 353 390 4% 54% 98% 98% 7%

Gilpin Public Montessori School 45% 55% EC-05 212 281 -47% 23% 89% 92% 12%

Harrington Elementary School 46% 44% EC-06 445 473 -11% 49% 96% 95% 12%

Hallett Fundamental Academy 71% 76% EC-05 360 363 65% 14% 87% 96% 18%

Westerly Creek Elementary School 73% 72% EC-05 588 604 151% 6% 18% 26% 8%

McMeen Elementary School 80% 90% EC-05 641 610 17% 42% 87% 77% 7%

Montclair Elementary School 67% 68% EC-05 474 489 31% 23% 63% 63% 6%

Dora Moore K-8 School 60% 61% EC-08 465 488 28% 18% 78% 70% 9%

Palmer Elementary School 71% 74% EC-05 354 312 28% 11% 59% 63% 16%

Park Hill School 70% 72% EC-05 511 514 -19% 7% 35% 46% 12%

Pioneer Charter School 44% 42% EC-07 361 396 27% 66% 95% 98% 8%

Smith Elementary School 33% 36% EC-05 436 416 17% 37% 98% 97% 9%

Steck Elementary School 96% 100% EC-05 366 375 3% 6% 12% 21% 5%

Stedman Elementary School 54% 58% EC-05 359 342 34% 23% 89% 93% 11%

Swansea Elementary School 44% 48% EC-05 556 554 2% 64% 96% 96% 6%

Teller Elementary School 42% 28% EC-05 425 463 47% 10% 38% 41% 12%

Whittier K-8 School 51% 60% EC-08 301 285 20% 12% 96% 89% 7%

Highline Academy Charter School 65% 65% K-08 504 499 10% 15% 30% 45% 6%

DC21 at Wyman MS 6/8 0 30 0% 0%

Hill Campus of Arts and Sciences 55% 54% 6/8 826 875 27% 16% 56% 58% 16%

Morey Middle School 58% 57% 6/8 813 736 14% 6% 54% 65% 8%

Smiley Middle School 50% 54% 6/8 274 246 -24% 6% 82% 92% 26%

Bruce Randolph School 46% 42% 6/12 893 884 31% 25% 97% 99% 12%

Denver School of the Arts MS 73% 57% 6/8 488 455 182% 4% 28% 33% 4%

Academy of Urban Learning 41% 9/12 117 137 70% 3% 88% 93% 23%

Denver Online High School 45% 9/12 99 97 -21% 2% 58% 73% 13%

Denver School of the Arts 9/12 555 596 3% 0% 35% 3%

DSST: Cole 0 140

DSST: Stapleton 9/12 469 472 8% 44% 69% 4%

DSST: Stapleton MS 82% 87% 6/8 405 432 11% 44% 64% 5%

East High School 66% 55% 9/12 2,199 2,313 7% 2% 34% 54% 9%

George Washington High School 44% 33% 9/12 1,606 1,513 5% 55% 72% 10%

Gilliam Youth Services Center K-12 50 30 -29% 8% 62% 92% 34%

Manual High School 46% 55% 9/12 349 359 114% 15% 90% 98% 17%

P.R.E.P. (Positive Refocus Education Program) 32% 20% 9/12 49 83 58% 4% 94% 88% 33%

P.R.E.P. (Positive Refocus Education Program) MS 6/8 115 30 50% 15% 89% 92% 23%

Venture Prep HS 9/12 178 184 12% 0% 89% 12%

Venture Prep MS 32% 25% 6/8 357 236 13% 89% 90% 15%



Appendix: where students in Manual area are going when faced with a transition

• 80% of students who go to Bruce Randolph for middle school stay at BR for high school, leaving Manual with only 1 feeder (Whittier)

• Grade configurations and boundaries in area complicated

53

Appendix


Appendix: students choicing out of Manual sub-region at high school

54

• 1,229 9-12 graders live in Manual boundary

• At full buildout this year, Manual’s enrollment is 349

Top 5 receiving schools for students choicing out of Manual (students in all grades, not just served by Manual only)

Appendix

School Name 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bruce Randolph High School 192 261 322 357

East High School 220 185 165 144

Manual High School 112 196 215 241

South High School 110 79 57 51

George Washington High School 83 62 41 29

Grand Total 1,247 1,277 1,260 1,229


Appendix: Current schools and background data in the Northwest Region

55


• Data for 6-12 schools disaggregated into component parts (6-8 and 9-12) where applicable

Appendix

School SPF 2011

SPF

Growth

2011 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-11

Preliminary


Greenlee Elementary School 41% 47% EC-05 437 460 37% 95% 92% 10%

Trevista ECE-8 at Horace Mann 33% 39% EC-08 637 587 36% 96% 95% 14%

Academia Ana Maria Sandoval 72% 78% EC-06 371 381 -11% 41% 39% 64% 5%

Valdez Elementary School 55% 69% EC-05 369 359 -4% 50% 72% 79% 12%

Barnum Elementary School 54% 58% EC-05 460 486 -6% 56% 95% 95% 8%

Beach Court Elementary School 86% 86% EC-05 354 363 14% 45% 96% 96% 11%

Brown Elementary School 52% 52% EC-05 492 495 35% 10% 50% 55% 11%

Bryant Webster Dual Language ECE-8 School 54% 53% EC-08 459 439 -6% 52% 93% 96% 7%

Cheltenham Elementary School 40% 40% EC-05 497 538 8% 49% 99% 95% 8%

Colfax Elementary School 54% 58% EC-05 373 421 8% 38% 97% 95% 9%

Columbian Elementary School 39% 38% EC-05 316 307 12% 31% 94% 95% 21%

Cowell Elementary School 54% 62% EC-05 523 524 -8% 53% 96% 96% 9%

Eagleton Elementary School 58% 66% EC-05 394 382 -6% 52% 96% 94% 15%

Edison Elementary School 53% 48% EC-05 571 527 9% 5% 37% 46% 7%

Fairmont ECE-8 School 40% 46% EC-08 423 383 -8% 48% 94% 91% 22%

Fairview Elementary School 38% 37% EC-05 305 294 24% 36% 92% 85% 22%

Knapp Elementary School 65% 74% EC-05 682 666 8% 68% 98% 97% 11%

Munroe Elementary School 41% 42% EC-05 548 609 -6% 75% 99% 97% 11%

Newlon Elementary School 56% 56% EC-05 575 566 11% 59% 96% 97% 9%

Centennial K-8 School 40% 34% EC-08 534 530 -5% 12% 77% 76% 13%

Cesar Chavez Academy Denver 38% 30% K-08 415 437 29% 86% 91% 6%

Lake Middle School 50% 57% 1/8 349 185 -42% 28% 93% 95% 21%

Skinner Middle School 55% 57% 6/8 349 370 -2% 17% 88% 89% 20%

Manny Martinez Middle School 14% 13% 7/8 224 118 34% 94% 98% 11%

West Denver Prep - Lake Campus 90% 94% 6/7 85 229 47% 93% 93% 7%

West Denver Prep - Highland Campus 87% 91% 6/7 108 220 38% 94% 94% 15%

Lake International School 45% 38% 6/7 167 291 27% 97% 96% 13%

ACE Community Challenge Charter School 55% 47% 8/10 211 207 10% 10% 92% 96% 12%

CEC Middle College of Denver 66% 68% 9/12 402 388 8% 6% 83% 89% 3%

Colorado High School Charter 25% 50% 10/12 195 154 10% 6% 72% 95% 17%

Contemporary Learning Academy High School 32% 47% 9/12 183 177 -27% 6% 83% 95% 4%

DCIS MS 60% 45% 6/8 364 370 87% 13% 79% 52% 3%

DCIS HS 60% 45% 9/12 279 318 26% 8% 65% 4%

Emily Griffith Technical College 43% 83% 9/12 502 369 -8% 5% 46% 87% 6%

Escuela Tlatelolco School 34% 35% K-12 129 125 63% 38% 91% 98% 9%

Florence Crittenton High School 26% 40% 9/12 179 154 3% 13% 92% 97% 15%

GED High School 9/12 19 0 11% 63% 95% 16%

Justice High School Denver 21% 33% 9/12 106 106 5% 93% 95% 12%

Life Skills Center of Denver 19% 33% 9/12 232 221 8% 6% 84% 90% 14%

North High School 43% 43% 9/12 875 937 -33% 14% 88% 93% 20%

North High School Engagement Center 29% 17% 9/12 193 7% 84% 95% 16%

West High School 33% 35% 9/12 789 702 -25% 15% 92% 94% 18%

West High School Engagement Center 72% 9/12 67 6% 81% 97% 13%



Appendix: Current schools and background data in the Southeast Region

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• RMSEL is not operated by Denver Public Schools


Appendix

School SPF 2011

SPF

Growth

2011 Ed Level

October Count

Enrollment 2010-11

Preliminary


Stephen Knight Center for Early Education EC-K 0 325

Asbury Elementary School 74% 74% EC-05 379 314 19% 17% 50% 45% 13%

Bradley Elementary School 71% 74% EC-05 534 521 40% 14% 45% 46% 16%

Cory Elementary School 89% 91% 5 473 364 21% 4% 10% 17% 4%

Ellis Elementary School 54% 52% EC-05 587 619 7% 63% 90% 70% 12%

Lincoln Elementary School 84% 92% EC-05 331 357 26% 11% 37% 39% 6%

McKinley-Thatcher Elementary School 46% 36% EC-05 223 216 -3% 18% 59% 57% 14%

Steele Elementary School 67% 67% EC-05 475 436 13% 4% 11% 12% 9%

Slavens ECE-8 School 86% 85% EC-08 543 510 16% 2% 8% 14% 8%

University Park Elementary School 83% 85% EC-05 502 425 18% 17% 27% 29% 7%

Holm Elementary School 57% 54% EC-05 584 653 11% 39% 81% 76% 11%

Samuels Elementary School 57% 62% EC-05 643 616 39% 37% 74% 68% 7%

Southmoor Elementary School 58% 48% EC-05 481 486 5% 17% 28% 34% 7%

Grant Middle School 49% 50% 6/8 358 414 5% 26% 86% 83% 18%

Hamilton Middle School 52% 46% 6/8 977 919 -1% 9% 53% 56% 10%

Merrill Middle School 50% 54% 6/8 545 537 -1% 45% 81% 59% 14%

Girls Athletic Leadership School 75% 90% 6/8 120 175 0% 8% 62% 67% 9%

South High School 43% 55% 9/12 1,359 1,316 -3% 35% 72% 60% 9%

Thomas Jefferson High School 55% 63% 9/12 1,070 1,049 -9% 5% 48% 60% 16%

Rocky Mountain School of Expeditionary Learning K-12 0 0



Appendix: percent of students attending their boundary high school

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Appendix

# School NameTotal

Membership

Students

Living and

Attending

Boundary

Students

% Boundary

students

attending

423 BRUCE RANDOLPH SCHOOL 456 337 611 55%

450 ABRAHAM LINCOLN HIGH SCHOOL 1,824 1,003 2,034 49%

451 EAST HIGH SCHOOL 2,199 986 1,685 59%

452 GEORGE WASHINGTON HIGH SCHOOL 1,606 681 1,988 34%

453 JOHN F KENNEDY HIGH SCHOOL 1,126 700 1,246 56%

455 NORTH HIGH SCHOOL 721 498 1,383 36%

456 SOUTH HIGH SCHOOL 1,359 312 708 44%

457 THOMAS JEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOL 1,070 626 1,197 52%

458 WEST HIGH SCHOOL 726 530 2,076 26%

459 MONTBELLO HIGH SCHOOL 1,545 1,510 3,246 47%

464 MANUAL HIGH SCHOOL 349 241 1,232 20%

*Boundary students refers to the number of students living in the school's boundry area (attending any DPS school)

*Students living and attending refers to those who live in the school's boundary and also attend that particular school

*Only includes those students in grades eligible for Manual High School, as Manual has been building out


Appendix: forecasting methodology & glossary

• Residential Population, Growth

– Residential population growth is provided by ESRI Business Analyst. The 2015 growth is determined by applying the difference between the actual 2010 Census data and the ESRI 2010 forecast.

• School Age population

– Defined as 5 to 17 years old.

• School Age Growth

– Represents the total number and percentage growth from the prior period

• Utilization

– Is the difference between enrollment and the capacity, apportioned by grade level

– Schools in non-DPS facilities have their capacities set equal to their enrollment

• Capture reflects the number and percentage of school age population within a given region that attends a DPS school in that region, segmented by education-level (elementary, middle, high)

– Number indicates the volume of children enrolled in a DPS school, regardless if the facility is owned by DPS

– Percentage is the number of children in a DPS school in the region divided by the number of school aged children in the region

• Choice out

– Students living in the boundary of the region and attending a DPS school that lies outside the region.

Forecast methodology

• To devise a five year enrollment forecast, we relied on the following sources: changes between the 2000 and 2010 Census Total Population, Student Age Population (SAP), Under 5 Population, and Housing Units.

• We also relied on known residential development activity and expected students from residential development.

• In addition, we analyzed and factored capture rates for 2010 into the five year forecast.

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Appendix


DPS graduates

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Appendix


Sizing the market: region by region (based on 2009-10 data)

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Appendix


Appendix: Graduation Mobility

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Key Points: • The graduation “rate” for this 9th grade cohort depends on how you calculate the cohort base and think about mobility. • Generally, only 71% of 9th grade students each year are 'first time 9th graders.' About 2,000 October Count 9th graders each year have previously

attended high school. • About 1,170 students (17% of 9th all grade students and 23% of first time 9th graders) transfer from the district and do not dropout. These students are

removed from the cohort base. The assumption here is that these students left district for reasons that do not reflect their success/ failure at DPS. • The most current four year cohort indicates that 2,391 or 63% of first time 9th grade students graduate within 4 years (66% or 2,487 complete). Again,

this does not include those who transfer out.

Graduation and Completion by Cohort:

Appendix

Strategic Regional Analysis

Documents

Transcript of Strategic Regional Analysis