Strategic Planning for Coastal Flooding and Erosion

Nick HardimanSenior Coastal AdviserEnvironment Agency Strategic Overview

Overview

The scale of the challengeEnvironment Agency coastal strategyManaging for uncertaintyAvoidance and adaptationChallenges for the strategic approach

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The scale of the challenge – sea level rise

12-76cm sea level rise by 2080

Extreme predictions of up to 1.9m by 2100

Wave height changes unclear: Winter mean -35cm to +5cm, annual maxima -1.5m to +1m

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UKCP09 predicts storm surge to be not more than 90mm anywhere in UK – but this is on top of sea-level rise.

Storm surge

50% probability level, central estimate

UKCP02 UKCP09 More intense rainfall contributing to cliff erosion?

Rainfall patterns

Approximately 1.3 million people at coastal flood and erosion risk in England & Wales

About 1 in 25 properties are at risk from sea flooding

About a quarter of the coastline eroding at >10cm/year – but up to almost 2m/yr in some places

740 properties at risk from erosion in next 20 years

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Risk to people and property

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Environment Agency Strategy

Establishes a ‘line of sight’ from national to local strategy

Emphasises local understanding and action

Partnership working – and funding

Sustainable, catchment/coastal cell approach bringing multiple benefits where possible

Shoreline Management Plans (1)

Hold the Line

No Active Intervention

Managed Retreat

Advance the Line

Not development plans, and not statutory

Long-term - set the ‘direction of travel’

Can be challenged, changed and are subject to funding availability

Use consistent data sets informed by local expertise

Intensive public engagement and consultation

Shoreline Management Plans (2)

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Managing for uncertainty

Project design that allows for future adaptation features

Local management policies responsive to monitoring

Integrating coastal management planning with development planning

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Shoreline Management Plans – a guide for development planners

Well-established flood risk assessment process

Respected Environment Agency development control

Estimated CBR of 14:1

Coastal Change Management Areas

106. Local planning authorities should reduce risk from coastal change by avoiding inappropriate development in vulnerable areas or adding to the impacts of physical changes to the coast. They should identify as a Coastal Change Management Area any area likely to be affected by physical changes to the coast, and:

●● be clear as to what development will be appropriate in

such areas and in what circumstances; and

●● make provision for development and infrastructure that needs to be relocated away from

Coastal Change Management Areas.107. When assessing applications, authorities should consider development in a Coastal Change Management Area appropriate where it is demonstrated that:

●● it will be safe over its planned lifetime and will not have an unacceptable impact on coastal change;●● the character of the coast including designations is not compromised;

●● the development provides wider sustainability benefits; and

●● the development does not hinder the creation and maintenance of a continuous signed and managed

route around the coast.108. Local planning authorities should also ensure appropriate development in a Coastal Change Management

Area is not impacted by coastal change by limiting the planned life-time of the proposed development through temporary

permission and restoration conditions where necessary to reduce the risk to people and the development.

Risk avoidance – using the development planning system

Consistent evidence base

Meaningful boundaries?

Opportunity as well as sacrifice

Flexibility on restrictions applied

Community input

Coastal Change Management Areas

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Opportunities at the seafront

Blackpool – 3km of new sea wall with a design life of 100 years

Protects 1500 homes and businesses, plus new ‘urban park’ promenade

Partnership approach: £67.5m from Government, plus Regional Development Funds for public amenity

Coastal adaptation

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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – defence spending will not keep pace with change

Need to adapt proactively

Defra pathfinders experienced success and challenge – an emerging picture

Challenges for adaptation

Relocation:Homeowners were not always happy with new plots…and didn’t always want to move as a ‘community’Replacement plots sometimes contested by residents

Roll-back:Is land available, is it cost-effective, is it technically feasible?

Buy-and-lease:

Large initial outlay for local authority, slow unpredictable returns

Setting fair payments without ‘compensating’ is difficult

Managed re-alignment:

Working with natural processes vs biodiversity/ecosystem function

Often seen as a threat by communities – engagement intensive

Controversy surrounding ‘food security’, budget use, landscape etc

Challenges for the strategic approach

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Engaging people about long term risk – 20 years as ‘short term’

Empowering people to make decisions on sound but changing evidence

Encouraging investment security whilst retaining flexibility

Keeping strategic plans ‘living’ and active

Communicating uncertainty whilst maintaining authority

Giving people options now to change in the future