Strategic Plan for HEPEX

John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza

AMS Annual MeetingAtlanta

February 2, 2006

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment

(HEPEX)

HEPEX aims to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions for emergency management, water resources management and the environment

HEPEX Basic Building Blocks

• All 3 blocks are emerging

• Major work needed

• Must be done in an integrated way

Hydrologic EnsemblePrediction System

UserApplications

Weather/Climate EnsemblePrediction System

Weather and Climate Forecasts

Products, Services,Applications

Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

SystemObservations

Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System

Atmospheric EnsemblePre-Processor

Hydrologic EnsembleProcessor

Land Data Assimilator

HydrologicModels

ProductGenerator

Products and Services

Single-value and ensemble forecasts

Reliable hydrologic inputs

Reliable hydrologic products

Ensemble initial conditionsEnsemble forecasts

Weather and Climate Forecasts

Obs

Initial Workshop

• ECMWF - March 8-10, 2004• 80 Participants• 16 Countries• Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec

Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …]

• Meteorologists• Hydrologists

From Science to NWS Hydrologic Operations

Science Community – HEPEX Strategic Plan

OHD/RFC

HOSIPProjects

&GAPPCore

Project HEPEX Test Bed Projects

River Forecast Center Operations

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Three Basic Elements of HEPEX

• Testbed Projects

• Supporting Data Sets

• Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Future Activities

• HESS: HEPEX Special Issue• HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric

Wood)• BAMS Article (Tom Hammil)• Testbed Workshops / Deliverables• Data Set Access / Management (JCS)• Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard)• Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007

Thank You

HEPEX WorkshopBoulder – July 19-22, 2005

HEPEX Testbed Projects• Canada – Great Lakes• Europe

– EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River

• Brazil• U.S.

– SE U.S.– Western U.S.

• Bangladesh• PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling• Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation

Return

Supporting Data Sets(Under Construction)

• GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present)– Temperature and Precipitation– Selected Regions

• Precipitation and Temperature Analyses– Selected Regions– Multi-scale

• Hydrological Basins– Forcing– Basin characteristics– Streamflow– Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc

• TIGGE Ensembles• CPC Products (for US)• Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.)

Return

AlgorithmServices

DataServices

ControlServices

DisplayServices

SecurityServices

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Federal agenciesState, regional, and local cooperatorsUniversitiesPrivate sectorInternational organizations

River Stage & Flow

Surface Water Storage

Water Supply Availability

Flood Potential

Water Quality

Soil Moisture

RunoffSnow Water Equivalent

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Near-Surface

Deep

Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells)

Vector Information (River Segments)

Return

Rio Grande - Brazil• Apply

– CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts– RAMS regional climate model

• Users– ANEEL– ONS

• Milestone – March 2006• AGU Chapman Conference @ Porto

Alegre, 2006?

Return

Southeast US

• Application of meteorological forcing

• Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles

• Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events

• Validation for extreme hydrological events

Return

Western US and British Columbia

• Prediction for 2wks to 1 year

• Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration

• Data assimilation of snow

• Climate forecast application strategy

• Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts

Return

Statistical Downscaling

• Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts

• Links to other testbeds

• Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP?

• Verification?

Return

1-14 day totals

Correlation coefficients for January

1-7 day totals

0.1

0.2

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0.6

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0.9

R

Return

GAPP Ensemble Experiments (GE2)

CommunityHydrologicPredictionSystem

PIs

NWS

SharedHydroclimatic

Data Resources

• Retrospective Forecasts• Historical Data• Multiscale Products

HydroclimaticTestbed

Sites

• Existing GAPP projects• NOAA hydro-testbeds

• Modular algorithms• Support services

PIs

PIs