Strategic Memo in Syria Case - National Security Affairs Class Assignment
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Transcript of Strategic Memo in Syria Case - National Security Affairs Class Assignment
To : Susan Rice, National Security Advisor
From :
Re : Syria Case
Issue. Possible U.S. intervention on Syria’s civil war, in particular after the recent chemical
weapon strike from Syrian’s President loyal forces, killing hundreds of civilians, including
women and children.
Interest.
Vital
Prevent further use of chemical weapons
Prevent chemical weapons distributed to terrorist groups or other state or non-state
actors within Syria
Extremely Important
Protect United States and its allies and partners against the threat posed by such
weapons
Combat the active extremist groups
Important
Bring down the Assad regime
Build the base of a tolerant, peaceful, plural and stable democratic system without
destabilization
Operational Objectives.
Secure the chemical weapons stockpiles and border
Prevent U.S. and its allies and partners from potential retaliation
Establish stable democratic system with protection for the Alawite, Kurdish, and
Christian minorities
Discussion. Further delaying U.S. military deployment and trust Syria agreement on placing
its chemical weapon under international control alone is deliberating due to several
possibilities that could arise during the wait such as chemical weapon distribution to terrorist
organizations and state or non-state actor. Meanwhile U.S. punitive military action is still on
debate, concerning the regional impact to the civilians, and alternatives to military action are
under intense consideration.
Strategic Options.
Option 1 – Obama’s Plan. Pursue the possibility of diplomatic opening, initiated by Russia,
to push Syria disclosing the chemical weapon, stop the production, and reveal the positions –
placing them under International control.
Pros:
Prevent more victims from U.S. military forces, Syrian forces, and civilians
Prevent retaliation attack to U.S. and its allies and partners especially Israel from
Syrian, Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza-based militants
Cons:
Possibility of:
Prolonging the conflict
Chemical weapons might be transferred to terrorist groups during the wait
Syria’s neighbors, including several U.S. partners are overwhelmed by refugees and
threatened with violence
Option 2 – U.S. Military Intervention. U.S. is to deploy a limited military response to secure
the chemical weapons, bring down Assad regime, and control the civil war.
Pros:
Most effective and efficient way to secure the chemical weapons and cut down its
distribution
Prevent further conflict in the region and its surrounding (including U.S. partners)
Cons:
Possibility of:
Disintegrate remaining state authority that could result in more escalated conflict,
terrorist groups, or mass atrocities
Vacuum of power that could benefit extremists
Option 3 – Peace Treaty. Trust the UN for chemical weapons control, isolate Assad’s and its
associates preventing them being victim of atrocities should their regime fall, cease-fire
agreement, and disarming Syrian military. Encourage the Syrian National Council to commit
on treating all Syrian in equality despite their diverse religious beliefs and protect the
minorities.
Pros:
Involving Syrian civilians to participate in their country transition
Help promote plural and democratic system
Cons:
Possibility of:
Rejection and retaliation from the conflicting groups
Chemical weapon used and or already distributed to terrorist groups
Recommendation. Pursue Option 2 – U.S. Military Intervention. Further delay of action
would make the Syrian conflict worse and risk of chemical weapons distribution is higher.
Implementation:
Immediately authorize the military deployment to Syria
Discuss the scenario with allies – warn them of possible retaliation
Analyze the precise area to attack – moreover on the chemical weapon factory to
prevent contamination
Secure the border of contested areas and surrounding, maintain control over the street
while avoiding unnecessary death on civilians
Take down Assad’s regime and lay off the base for transition