Russian-Syrian interdependence

It is a questionthat has posed as a threat between the allegiances of Russia–Syria.Russia–Syria

relations refer to the bilateral relationship between Russia andSyria. The Russians changed the

equation by sending in their air force to Syriaon the 30th September 2015 to rescue the

crumbling regime of President Basharal-Assad, is in a capable position to dominate the fighting

and the word.Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, ostensibly operates in tandem onthe

Geneva forum with John Kerry, US Secretary of State, said that theAmericans understands, they

can't do anything without Russia recently. Whilereal enough in the Syrian context, this big

speech raises the question of whatRussia can do.

Syria Conflict

After fiveyears of brutal conflict, the deepest chasm between the regime and the seriesof

opponents remains the expectations of President Assad and his clan. Iran andRussia, which his

regime in place though held in a shrinking body, insist therecan be outsiders, oust him in Libya

or Iraq-style regime change. While theUnited States and its European and Arab allies argue -

they the less vocal thanthey once did - that Assad has lost all legitimacy by waging war against

theirpeople.

PresidentAssad, which holds parliamentary elections on Wednesday, says he is open toinvolving

selected opposition figures in a "national unity"government, but completely leads a transitional

ruling body with full executivepowers, the formula agreed in Geneva in mid -2012.

Iran, theRevolutionary Guards and paramilitary allies, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah,the

regime remained alive until the intervention of Russia, seems to agree.

AliAkbar Velayati, the foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, thesupreme leader of

Iran, said at the weekend that the removal of President Assadwas a "red line" for Tehran.

Russia seemsdoubtful. Moscow has always said their military investment in Syria wasintended to

create the conditions for a transition from the war. PresidentPutin sudden but a partial

withdrawal of its troops last month was wide, ifspeculative, interpreted as a message to

President Assad, who had started totalk about his plans to retake all of the Syria - to fight to the

last Russian.

The scale ofthe attack on Russia on Sunni insurgents, some of them supported the West,which

seemed within reach of the overthrow of President Assad, the Syrianpresident client may have

made strong. Dependence on the regime has turned intoa kind of Russian-Syrian

interdependence - as long as President Putin wants tokeep this valuable position in the Middle

East. Is the Kremlin, despite thefact that an alliance with Syria dates back to the Soviet era, the

latestvictim of what might be called the luck of the Assad?

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Syria haslong been the recipient of a timely windfall. During the 1970s, oil-rich Gulfrulers

bankrolled Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, as the leader of a frontlinestate against Israel. In the

1980s, Syria was free of oil from Iran in exchangefor the support of the Islamic Republic in the

1980-1988 war with Iraq, Syria, andthe Ba'ath party rival. After intervening in the 1975-1990

Lebanese civil war,which the West turned a blind eye, the Assad regime and its allies made a

fortune. Syria was received from Iraqi oil illegally at a discount of up to $20 per barrel until the

2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

AlthoughPresident Assad then helps piped jihadism in Iraq sabotage the occupation,Damascus

made its intelligence on Islamists at the disposal of the US in theaftermath of the 9/11 al-Qaeda

attacks, gave President Assad what a StateDepartment official said at the time a get out of jail

card. His ultimatewindfall may be that the United States and the West are the priorities in the

fight against Isis - a jihadi movement helped his policies create - the fall ofhis regime.

Conclusion

PresidentPutin may be trying to find ways through Syria security of the State throughthe control

of two of the pillars. That still leaves intact the deadlyintelligence and militia network Iran has

built for Assad, who is trying tobring in Moscow under military control. Russia is also seeking to

get somemainstream rebels toward this seemingly more professional army, stripped of themost

infamous Assad to attract leaders. It does not look like much of a plan,but then neither is

anything else.

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