Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 113.08.2007Slides-for-lecture-Christopher-Schläffer.ppt 1

Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AGPresentation for the IRAHSS 08

René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2

Content.

2 Continuous Strategic Foresight

1 Introduction

3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D

2.2 Product and Service Radar

2.1 Technology Radar

3.1 Methodology

4 Conclusion

2.3 Customer Foresight


The ICT industry has to reinvent itself.

Any software developer can offer complex servicesHorizontalization

Shift of value distribution

Market

Liberalization

To value added services and devices

Decreasing revenues in core business

Current influences on the ICT industry (examples)


Strategic Foresight is a set of tools for early identification and assessment of changes in the environment.

Theoretical Foundation

Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance tochanges happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)

Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et al. 1976 )

They have to be identified in the environment (Boizard 2005, Day/ Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/ Caron 1995)

They are usually fuzzy and unstructured (Krystek 2007)

“The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you are looking for” (Liebl 2005)

Weak Signals


create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and

functional forward view

detect adverse

conditions

guide policy and shape

strategyexplore new markets

explore new products and

servicesInnovation

Management

Strategic

Management

Strategic

Controlling

Corporate

Development

Strategic

Foresight

Strategic Foresight creates a coherent and functional forward view.

In a fast moving environment it is essential to continuously scan for changes!


Content.


1 Introduction




3.1 Methodology

4 Conclusion



Three major tools at Deutsche Telekom are examples for continuous scanning.

Identification, assessment and anticipation of consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural trends

Customer Foresight

Technology Radar

Assessment of competitors and identification and assessment of

products and service in development or available in lead

markets

Product & Service RadarP&S TR

Identification, assessment and usage of information on emerging

technologies and technological discontinuities

Strategic

Foresight


The Technology Radar gives a pre-evaluation of relevant up-coming technologies for DTAG.

Summary of technology intelligence findings

60 technologies with relevance for DT AG

Technologies are selected according to:

- Relevance for DT AG

- “Not yet covered inside DT AG”

Technologies are classified according to:

- their development phase

- technological area

- relevance

3G-Femto-Cell

A-IMS

Audio Inf. Mgmt

P2P TV

Semantic Web Services

Music Search

Context Awareness in IMSPlace-shifting

Voice & Video

over WLANRich Internet

EPC

Shared Wireless

SocComp Web 2.0

RuBEE

SOA 2.0

Quadruple Play

Data Stream Mgmt

UC Apps

Supply Line Access

SPEERMINT

VoIP Peering

Document Lifecycle Mgmt

VirtualMIMO

THz Data Comm

User CentricIdentity

SPARQLInteractTV

Internet Indirection

SecureBlue

Quantum Communications

UICCUniversal Chip for

Cell Phones

Desktop Videoconf

WMM™ Power Save

60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set

Network Coding

Molecular Computing

Network DRM

SenseWeb

IP Emergency Calls

Internet Televisions

VoiSearch

MAGNET Beyond

GENI

Mobile Grid

IP Header compression

IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)

E-DRM

Open (Source) Hardware

Mobile Authoring

HybridOptWi

Image-based queries

Kilocore Chips

Remote Hardw. Mgmt

Project Fastball

3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon

OptIPuter

Sentient Things

3G-Femto-Cell

A-IMS

Audio Inf. Mgmt

P2P TV

Semantic Web Services

Music Search

Context Awareness in IMSPlace-shifting

Voice & Video

over WLANRich Internet

EPC

Shared Wireless

SocComp Web 2.0

RuBEE

SOA 2.0

Quadruple Play

3G-Femto-Cell3G-Femto-Cell

A-IMSA-IMS

Audio Inf. MgmtAudio Inf. Mgmt

P2P TVP2P TV

Semantic Web ServicesSemantic Web Services

Music SearchMusic Search

Context Awareness in IMSContext Awareness in IMSPlace-shiftingPlace-shifting

Voice & Video

over WLAN

Voice & Video

over WLANRich InternetRich Internet

EPCEPC

Shared WirelessShared Wireless

SocCompSocComp Web 2.0Web 2.0

RuBEERuBEE

SOA 2.0SOA 2.0

Quadruple Play Quadruple Play

Data Stream Mgmt

UC Apps

Supply Line Access

SPEERMINT

VoIP Peering

Document Lifecycle Mgmt

VirtualMIMO

THz Data Comm


SPARQLInteractTV

Internet Indirection

SecureBlue

Quantum Communications

UICCUniversal Chip for

Cell Phones

Desktop Videoconf

WMM™ Power Save

60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set

Network Coding

Molecular Computing

Network DRM

SenseWeb

IP Emergency Calls

Internet Televisions

VoiSearch

MAGNET Beyond

GENI

Mobile Grid

IP Header compression

IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)

E-DRM

Open (Source) Hardware

Mobile Authoring

HybridOptWi

Image-based queries

Kilocore Chips

Remote Hardw. Mgmt

Data Stream Mgmt Data Stream Mgmt

UC AppsUC Apps

Supply Line AccessSupply Line Access

SPEERMINTSPEERMINT

VoIP PeeringVoIP Peering

Document Lifecycle MgmtDocument Lifecycle Mgmt

VirtualMIMOVirtualMIMO

THz Data CommTHz Data Comm



SPARQLSPARQLInteractTVInteractTV

Internet IndirectionInternet Indirection

SecureBlueSecureBlue

Quantum CommunicationsQuantum Communications

UICCUICCUniversal Chip for

Cell PhonesUniversal Chip for

Cell Phones

Desktop VideoconfDesktop Videoconf

WMM™ Power Save

WMM™ Power Save

60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set 60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set

Network CodingNetwork Coding

Molecular ComputingMolecular Computing

Network DRMNetwork DRM

SenseWebSenseWeb

IP Emergency CallsIP Emergency Calls

Internet TelevisionsInternet Televisions

VoiSearchVoiSearch

MAGNET BeyondMAGNET Beyond

GENIGENI

Mobile GridMobile Grid

IP Header compressionIP Header compression

IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)

E-DRME-DRM

Open (Source) HardwareOpen (Source) Hardware

Mobile AuthoringMobile Authoring

HybridOptWiHybridOptWi

Image-based queriesImage-based queries

Kilocore ChipsKilocore Chips

Remote Hardw. Mgmt Remote Hardw. Mgmt

Project Fastball

3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon

OptIPuter

Sentient Things

Project FastballProject Fastball

3-D TV Next Generation 3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoonCustomized cartoon

OptIPuterOptIPuter

Sentient ThingsSentient Things

DTAG Relevance

High

Medium

Low

Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks

Classification within six technologies fields

Technology

Intelligence


The Technology Radar tracks individual technologies and overall technological trends.

The Technology Radar - A Tool for Technology Intelligence at T-Labs

Informing you about emerging technologies potentially effecting DT„s future business.

Emerging Technologies

Gathering in-depth information on one hot technology field from a research and business perspective.

Technology Trend

Reporting on actual activities on emerging technologies in DT.

Activities

Technology

Intelligence


The Technology Foresight is based on an international network of scouts

Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification

Technology

Intelligence

Source: Rohrbeck (2007) Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

Innovation

Strategy

CTOs and CMOs

R&D and

Product Manager

International Scout Network

uses sources in universities & industry

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!

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Mobile Internet

Technology

& Market

The Product & Service RadarThe Technology Radar

…is identifying and assessing emerging technologies

…is published by the T-Labs

…is identifying and assessing emerging products and services

…is published by Corporate Product and Innovation

The Product & Service Radar complementswith a scan of start-ups‟ and competitors‟services.


Target groups create topic-specific (online) diaries over a predefined period of time

Pre-structuring of the diaries, e.g. referring needs/wants, usability requirements, drivers/barriers

Execution of (online) interviews in order to identify latent needs & barriers

Introduction & prioritization of new product/service functions (mini concepts²)

Laddering technique to derive means-end-chains

(Online) Diary research (Online) Interviews

Day in the life visits Insight clinic

Personal, direct interaction along different “insight” stations

Topic-specific design: e.g. product/service confrontation to identify barriers, group discussions to identify latent needs/ means-end-chains

Personal customer visits with cross-functional teams

Direct interaction with customersthrough observation and interviews

“User in the box”: Vivid documentation of ICT-infrastructure & usage patterns

The Consumer Foresight contributes customerneeds and socio-cultural trends at various stages.

Further Reading: Leonard/Rayport 1995; Mrazek et al. 1995, 2 e.g. Durgee et al. 1998

Customer

Foresight

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Continuous scanning detects threats and opportunities.

The most promising opportunities are then explored, assessed and planned for implementation.


Content.


1 Introduction




3.1 Methodology

4 Conclusion



Combination of scenario analysis and roadmapping allows linking R&D results with innovation and new business development.

Environmental analysis

Scenario development

21 Roadmap development

Navigation board development

3 4

“The navigation board allows the continuous

tracking of assumptions and the progress towards the favorable scenario”

“The roadmap defines milestones and key

developmentsneeded, to reach the favorable scenario”

“Multiple distinct scenarios reflect any

possible future”

“Identifying the key factors affecting the new business field”

Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.


The Environmental Scanning identifies all relevant factors that influence the new field.

Environmental scanning

Factors that influence our core activities

Influencing factors from neighboring industries

E.g. IT-sector for the telecommunication industry

Areas which today have no connection to our current business,

but might have an important impact in the future

Current Business

Adjacent environment

White spaces

TechnologyIntelligence

Political Foresight

Consumer Foresight

Competitor Foresight

Current business



The Scenario Analysis provides three to six scenarios that represent any possible future.

Alternative scenario

Unfavorable scenario A Unfavorable scenario B

Description

1 2

3 4

Desired scenario

Description Description

Description


Multiple distinct

scenarios


A Roadmapping approach allows to integrate business scenarios with internal R&D results.

20122007 Timeline

Function J

Own functional building blocks Needed functionalities

Demand

Products

Aspect 1

Aspect 2

Platform 1

Platform 3

Aspect 3

R&Dresults

Domain 2

Platform 2

Domain 1

Domain 3

Domain 4

Domain 5

Function A

Building block ABuilding block C

Building block B

Building block DBuilding block E

Building block G

Building block FBuilding block H

Building block IBuilding block J

Building block LBuilding block K

Building block M

Function BFunction C

Function D Function FFunction E Function G

Function H

Function I

Current demandTomorrow‟s demand

Current demandTomorrow‟s demand

Current demandTomorrow‟s demandWhere do we want to go?

Which relevant technologies and capabilities do we control for competitive differentiation?

Which additional ones do we need?


A Navigation Board provides a management view on the progress and proposes interventions.

Need for action Monitor closely as planned

Indicator Current Status Needed status Proposed intervention

Overall Status

Key development A

Key development C 6 >3

Key development B

Key development D

1 <3

Key development E 5 <3

Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2





Comment 1 Comment 2

Which external and internal developments do we need to succeed in the new

business?(Both internal and external)

What should we do, if developments are not

moving in the right direction!

Using scenario analysis with roadmapping is a strong way to explore and plan the future.


Content.


1 Introduction




3.1 Methodology

4 Conclusion



After three years of foresight experience in the T-Labs we would like to share with you four lessons learned.

A successful

Strategic Foresightactivity…

is based on a deep understanding of the need of the decision maker

engages many internal and external partners

has a strong tool that enables effective collaboration

uses a balanced mix of qualitative and quantitative methods

Four lessons learned from T-Labs


Thank you for your interest.

http://futureorientation.net

Conference on Strategic Foresight

René RohrbeckDeutsche Telekom LaboratoriesErnst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)[email protected]

Personal contact

http://rene-rohrbeck.de

http://futureorientation.net/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.rene-rohrbeck.de/



http://rene-rohrbeck.de/



Thank you very much for your interest!.René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories


Further Reading.

Technology Radar

Technology Scouting

Corporate Foresight

Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H.M. Arnold. (2006) "The Technology Radar – an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy" The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983Paper Presentation

Rohrbeck, R. (2007) "Technology Scouting - a case study on theDeutsche Telekom Laboratories" ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India.Paper Presentation

Rohrbeck, R. 2010. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg and New York: Physica-Verlag, Springer.

http://www.rene-rohrbeck.de/documents/Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2006)_Technology-Radar_Paper.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/Rohrbeck/the-technology-radar-a-tool-of-technology-intelligence-and-innovation-strategy

http://www.rene-rohrbeck.de/documents/Rohrbeck_(2007)_Technology-Scouting_Paper.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/Rohrbeck/technology-scouting-5685023

http://www.slideshare.net/Rohrbeck/technology-scouting-5685023

http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/3790826251?ie=UTF8&tag=organifutureo-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1638&creative=6742&creativeASIN=3790826251

http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/3790826251?ie=UTF8&tag=organifutureo-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1638&creative=6742&creativeASIN=3790826251

Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

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