Storm-Scale Modeling with HRRR toward Warn-On-Forecast NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory GSD/AMB...

Storm-Scale Modeling with HRRR toward Warn-On-Forecast

NOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryGSD/AMB

Stan Benjamin, Curtis Alexander, David Dowell, Steve Weygandt, Ming Hu, Tanya Smirnova, John Brown,

Patrick Hofmann, Eric James, Ed Szoke, Haidao Lin

Technical Workshop on Numerical Guidance to Support WoF5 February 2013

RUC to Rapid Refresh transition

NCEP Production Suite Review 4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 2

• North American domain • WRF-ARW Model

• GSI –• Unipost

Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation

• CONUS domain • RUC Model

• RUC 3dvar• RUC post

13km Rapid Refresh

13km RUC

3km HRRR

Hourly updated models

WRF-ARW / GSI enhancements for RAP


• GSD contributions to WRF-ARW – Grell 3-D cumulus scheme (updated each version)– RUC (Smirnova) land-surface model (“ “ “)– Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (with NCAR)– DFI-radar-latent heat reflectivity assimilation– Modified MYNN PBL (v3.5)– Latent heat limit to allow much longer time steps

• GSD contributions to GSI– Non-variational cloud analysis– Ingest for cloud / hydrometeor fields / obs– Enhancements to surface obs assimilation / soil adjustment– Options – aircraft V/T/RH reject list, temp bias correction

RUC RAP / HRRR configuration Community-based advanced model and

analysis- WRF-ARW: advanced numerics, non-hydrostatic- GSI: advanced satellite data assimilation

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top

Boundary Conditions Initialized

RUC GSD CONUS 451 x 337 13-km 50 Sigma/

Isentropic NAM Hourly(cycle)

RAP NCO GSD

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly

(Part. cycle)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP

(no-cycle)

Model Assimilation Cloud Analysis

RadarDFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM

RUC RUC-3DVAR Yes Yes RRTM / Dudhia

Thompson(2003) Grell-Devenyi

Burk –Thomps

on

RUC 2003

RAP GSI-3DVAR Yes Yes RRTM/Goddard Thompson G3 + Shallow MYJ RUC

2010

HRRRNone: RAP I.C No No RRTM/

Dudhia Thompson None MYJ RUC2010

Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

11 12 13Time (UTC)

AnalysisFields

3DVAR

Obs

3DVAR

Obs

Back-groundFields

Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/dayCycle hydrometeorsFully cycle all land-sfc fields(soil temp, moisture, snow)

Hourly Observations RAP 2012 N. Amer

Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120

Profiler – NOAA Network (V) 21

Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 25

Radar – VAD (V) 125

Radar reflectivity - CONUS 1km

Radial wind Tested, late arrival

Lightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN, GLD360

Aircraft (V,T) 2-15K

Aircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800

Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500

Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400

Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) flagged

GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000

AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiances Used

GOES cloud-top press/temp 13km

GPS – Precipitable water 260

WindSat scatterometer 2-10K

Nacelle/Tower/Sodar 20/100/10


Radar reflectivity assimilationDigital filter-based reflectivity assimilation

initializes ongoing precipitation regions

Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating

-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min

RUC / RAP HRRR model forecast

Backwards integration, no physics

Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation

+ RUC/RAP Convection suppression

Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) reflectivity assimilation example

Low-levelConvergence

Upper-levelDivergence

K=4 U-comp. diff (radar - norad)

K=17 U-comp. diff

(radar - norad)

NSSL radar reflectivity

(dBZ)

14z 22 Oct 2008Z = 3 km


Cloud and hydrometeor analysis

Hydrometeor designation from radar

Adjust cycled explicit cloud fields using METAR and satellite data

YES HM

COLD(Tsfc < 5C)WARM(Tsfc > 5C)

6h RAP fcst dewpoint bias Eastern US (Fcst - obs)

WITH soil adjustNO soil adjust

MoistBias

DryBias

Soil adjust (T’soil , Q’soil )

Q’soil applied if: -- T’(k=1) q’(k=1) opp. sign -- Daytime, No clouds -- Proportional to q’(k=1)Assume – Bowen ratio error from soil Q’ errorApply top 2 LSM levels

High afternoon dewpoint bias

RAP soil adjustment from surface obs

Temp. dependent hydrometeorspecification

YES HMSpecifyhydro-meteors

Specifyonly snowhydro-meteors

Fromradar

-0.4

0

.0

+0.

4

+0.

8

+1.

2

+1.

6K

Greater retention of surface dewpoint information

Create moisture pseudo-observations through depth of

mixed BL

Assimilate PBL-based pseudo-observations (from sfc Td

obs)

RAPv2RAPv1

March 2, 2012: OH/TN Valley Tornado Outbreak1-hr forecast SBCAPE Valid 21Z

RAP-v2 instability forecasts better than RAP

3-km Interp

Hourly HRRR Initialization from RAP

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

tHMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst 3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst


GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

15 hr fcst

13 km RAP

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z

13

13km Rapid Refresh and 3km HRRR hourly updated weather models

ESRL – experimental version• RAPv1 – used in 2011

– Initialized 2011 HRRR– effective but too many storms

• RAPv2 – used in 2012– Initialized 2012 HRRR– Better use of surface obs / radar,

storm bias eliminated– RAP-2013 – 3km/15min radar assim,

GOES cloud assim, ensemble assim• HRRR – 2012

– Major improvement over 2011 HRRR, storm coverage/accuracy

• HRRR – 2013– 3km/15min radar assimilation– Initialized from RAP-2013– Available 45 min earlier, much more

accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer

NWS-NCEP - operational

• Implemented 1 May 2012

• RAPv2 - Scheduled to be implemented in spring 2014

• HRRR – estimated 2015

Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum Param PBL LSM

RAP WRF-ARW v3.2.1+ GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/

Goddard Thompson G3 + Shallow MYJ RUC

HRRR WRF-ARWV3.2.1+

None: RAP I.C. No RRTM/

Dudhia Thompson None MYJ RUC


Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top


RAP GSD,NCO

North America


(cycled)


(no-cycle)

RAP and HRRR Config 2011

Model Horiz/VertAdvection

ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping

SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend

Limit Time-Step

RAP 5th/3rd Monotonic Diffusive0.02 30 min USGS 0.01 K/s 60 s

HRRR 5th/3rd Monotonic Diffusive0.02 30 min USGS 0.10 K/s 18-23 s





HRRR WRF-ARWv3.3.1+




Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top


RAP GSD,NCO

North America


(cycled)


(no-cycle)



ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping


Limit Time-Step

RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite

w-Rayleigh0.2 10 min MODIS

Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s

HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite


Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s


Reflectivity Eastern US160 Runs 29 May – 12 June 2011

Reflectivity ≥ 30 dBZ

Optimal

HRRR 2011HRRR 2012

HRRR June Retro Verification

Reduced high bias in first 6 hrs and improved CSI


40 km CSI 03 km BIAS

HRRR Retro Case Studies

21z 01 June 2011Observations

HRRR 5hr fcst2011 Real-Time

HRRR 5hr fcst2012 Version

Composite Reflectivity (dBZ)

Large reduction in false alarm (excessive) convectionImproved structure to broken convective line



18z 07 June 2011Observations



Improved mesoscale convective system (MCS) maintenance




Retro Assessment 21 June 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 19

00z 31 May 2011Observations



Reduction in false alarm convective initiation


NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRR ModelForecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho – 29 June 2012


Radar observed HRRR forecast

[2011 RAP/HRRR code](Would need lengthy RAP

retro to spin-up soil fields)

RAP version 2[2012 GSD real-time

run]

RAP version 1[2012 NCEP real-time run]

RAP version 1RadarObserved

03z30 June

RAP version 2

12h fcsts

[2012 GSD real-time run]

post-DFI

pre-DFI

* Only “pre-DFI”

fields available

from NCEP RAP

pre-DFI

RadarObserved

15z29 June

RAP version 2

RAP version 2RAP version 10 h fcsts

Init post-DFI

Init pre-DFI Init pre-DFI

RadarObserved

16z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


RadarObserved

17z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


RadarObserved

18z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


RadarObserved

19z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


RadarObserved

20z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


RadarObserved

21z29 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


~ 11z LTG

RadarObserved

00z30 June

RAP version 2


Init post-DFI


~ 11z LTG

RadarObserved

03z30 June

RAP version 2

RAP version 2

12h fcstsRAP version 1


Init post-DFI

Conclusions:RAPv2 DA for mesoscale environment critical.

Radarobserved

storms

HRRRstorms

9-h forecastForecast available by 10 AM CDT

NOAA Next-Generation HRRR System Forecast of 2011 Alabama Tornado Outbreak

Tuscaloosatornadicsupercell

5 PM CDT27 April 2011

Reflectivity (dBZ)

Data Assimilation Model

RAP(13 km)

GFS ensemble background error covariance

Merge with recent GSI trunk

Sfc. moisture pseudo-obs

Sfc. obs-based soil adjust

Temp. dependent radar hydrometeor building + clearing

Cloud assimilation mods Cloud fraction assimilation Full column cloud buildingRadiance bias correctionAircraft temp bias correction

NLDN/GLD360 lightning assimilation (proxy reflectivity)

WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)

Numerics changes 6th-order diffusion near surface 5th-order vertical advection w-damp upper bound conditions Physics changes MYNN PBL 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) MODIS land-use (fractional) Modified roughness length Revised Thompson cloud microphysics RRTMG shortwave/longwave radiation Revised Thompson cloud microphysics

RAP version 2 Changes

GFS ensemble background error covariance

RAPdev1 shows less 10m wind bias compared to RAP-primary, near 0 in daytime, from 0.8 m/s down to ~0.5 at night (an improvement)

RAPdev1 shows more accurate 2m temp diurnal bias, less exaggerated diurnal cycle than evidence in RAP-primary (RR1h)

RUC LSM with 9 levels – implemented in RAP-dev1 on 18 Oct12:Zs= 0, 1, 4, 10, 20, 40, 100, 160, 300 cm RUC LSM with 6 levels –in RAP primary ESRL, RAP-oper-NCEP:Zs= 0, 5, 20, 40, 160, 300 cm

3h fcst - 10m wind bias vs. METARs – e. US

3h fcst – 2m temp bias vs. METARs – e. US

GSI 3D-VarHMObs

RAP-2012 – using GSI using fixed background error covariance

GSI 3D-Var

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

GSI 3D-Var

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

13z 14z 15z13 km RAP

1 hr

fcs

t

GSI HybridHMObs

RAP-2013 GSI hybrid using Global Ensemble

GSI Hybrid

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

GSI Hybrid

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

ReflObs

18 hr fcst


1 hr

fcs

t

80-member GFS EnKF Ensemble forecast valid at

15Z (9-h fcst from 6Z)

Available 4 times a day valid at 03, 09, 15, 21Z

Real-time test for RAP hybrid usingbkg error cov from GDAS hybrid DA ensemble

RMS profile for 3h forecasts

• Compare RAP development with GSI hybrid to RAP primary cycle with GSI-3dvar– 30-day real-time test from 22 Nov – 22 Dec 2012 – GSI hybrid with half static BE and half BE from GFS

ensemble (80 member) forecasts

RAP hybrid RAP

Model Data Assimilation

RAP-ESRL(13 km)

WRFv3.4.1+ incl. physics changes (convection, snow-radiation fix)Numerics changes: 6th-order diffusion near surfacePhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer) Modified roughness length RRTMG short/longwave radiation Thompson microphysics update

Merge with GFS trunkGFS ensemble background error cov

Cloud fraction assimilation Full column cloud buildingRadar hydrometeor build/clearImproved cloud hydrometeor analysisAircraft temp bias correctionRadiance bias correctionReduced observation error(sharper inversions, low-level thermo)

HRRR (3 km)


3 km/15 min reflect assimilation3 km cloud cycling3 km land-surface cycling

RAP and HRRR Changes 2013

BackgroundRadar

Specification of Hydrometeors

Scale at which Latent Heating

is appliedDimensionality Updated

2012 HRRR model

initialization13-km RAP No 13-km 3-D Hourly

2013 HRRR model

initialization13-km RAP yes

3km in 60min spin-up (also using 13km

radar-LH-DFI)3-D Hourly

Rapidly Updating

Analysis (RUA-HRRR)

3-km HRRR1 hr fcst Yes None 3-D Hourly

Real-TimeMeso Analysis (RTMA-HRRR)

3-km HRRR1 hr fcst No None 2-D

Hourly(15 min

planned)

Time-Lagged HRRR (HCPF)

3-km HRRRFcsts No Same as HRRR 2-D Hourly

HRRR Real-Time Exper Products

RUA Meeting 25 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 38

ESRL GSI applications at 3km1800 x 1060 (x 50 levs)

Application CPU cores (zeus) Run time

3km HRRR (3d, radar, sat only, no var solver)

240 8 min

3km RUA (no var) 84 6-7 min

3km RTMA (2d, sfc obs only)

60 7 min

Full 3km 3dvar (full RAP obs data set)

300 20-30 min

3-km Interp

2013: Cycled Reflectivity at 3 km

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

3-km Interp

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcs

t

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

GSI 3D-VAR

Obs

Cloud Anx

DigitalFilter

HMObs

ReflObs

18 hr fcst

3 km HRRR


15 hr fcst1 hr pre-fcst

Refl Obs

1-hr Reduction In Latency for 14z HRRR

Latent Heating (LH) Specification

Obse

rved 3

-D R

adar

Reflect

ivit

y

Tim

e (

min

)

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

-60 -45 -30-15 0Model Pre-Forecast Time (min)

Temperature Tendency (i.e. LH) = f(Observed Reflectivity)LH specified from reflectivity obs applied in four 15-min periodsThe observations are valid at the end of each 15-min pre-fcst periodNO digital filtering at 3-kmHour old mesoscale obsLatency reduced by 1 hr

LH = Latent Heating Rate (K/s)p = PressureLv = Latent heat of vaporizationLf = Latent heat of fusionRd = Dry gas constantcp = Specific heat of dry air at constant pf[Ze] = Reflectivity factor converted to

rain/snow condensatet = Time period of condensate formation

(600s i.e. 10 min)RUA Meeting 25 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 41

Observed Radar Reflectivity (3-D)Based Latent Heating

Model MicrophysicsLatent Heating0

Weig

ht

1


0

Weig

ht

1


Experiment 1a “Fixed” Experiment 1b “Ramp”

0

Many options for weighting LH specification vs model LHTwo approaches including:(a)100% specification for the entire pre-forecast hour (b) Time-varying with linear ramp down to 0% specification at 1 hr

Option (b) permits more “free model” behavior before additional DA

Latent Heating (LH) Specification


0-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs0000 UTC11 June

2011

0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)

0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

1-h fcstwithout 3-km

radar DA

Obs0100 UTC11 June

2011

1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(fixed)

1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA(ramp)

Convective systems more mature even by 1-hr

3-day retrospective period 09-12 June 2011 (36 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours

> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US

Upscaled to 40-km grid

With 3-km fixed radar DAWith 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA

Bias = 1.0

Native3-km grid

Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr

Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times

HRRR Reflectivity Verification

14-day retrospective period June 2011 (160 runs)Forecasts every 2 hours

> 25 dBZ Composite ReflectivityEastern half of US

Upscaled to 40-km grid

With 3-km ramp radar DAWithout 3-km radar DA

Bias = 1.0

Native3-km grid

Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr

Benefit persists until 4 hrsVery similar skill at longer lead times

HRRR Reflectivity Verification


RAP-ESRL(13 km)




HRRR (3 km)




NCEP RAPv1 ESRL RAPv2 (primary) until 29 Jan 2013

ESRL RAPv2 (primary)as of 06 UTC 29 Jan 13

Tsfc ≤ 5C Tsfc > 5C Tsfc ≤ 5C Tsfc > 5C Tsfc ≤ 5C Tsfc > 5C

building All levels with sufficiently high obs refl (> 0 dBZ)

All levels (same as for Tsfc < 5C)

None None Specify qs at all levels with sufficiently high reflectivity (> 0 dBZ)

Set to max diagnosed qs only at that obs max refl level.

clearing None None None Clear except allowdiagnosed qs to be retained at max obs refl level

Clear qr/qs/qg in any volumes with obs refl < 0 dBZ

Clear qr/qs/qg in any volumes with obs refl < 0 dBZ

Precip hydrometeor (qr/qs/qg) clearing/building from 3-D radar

reflectivity data

2m temps below are clearly < 4 deg C,In fact, usually < -10 deg C

Observed lake effect snow band is clearly over Lake Ontario

But the lake effect snow band in the HRRR 0h is located over land (NY state) south of Lake Ontario

With snow building/clearing

Without snow building/clearing

Improved snowfall/snowcover1- hr Forecasts valid 14 UTC 25 Jan 2013

Improved 0-hr reflectivity analysisIntroduced snow building/clearing inESRL RAPv2 (primary) and implicitlyESRL HRRR (primary and dev1)At 06 UTC 29 January 2013

0-hr13-km> 25 dBZ

0-hr20-km> 25 dBZ

Improved reflectivity forecasts

1. 0-1 hr forecasts for HRRR-primary and ESRL-RAP-primary are now performing fairly well2. Addition of 3km/15min assimilation (HRRR_dev1) helps further still at 0-2 hrs

20-km> 30 dBZ

20-km> 35 dBZ

BackgroundRadar

Specification of Hydrometeors

Scale at which Latent Heating

is appliedDimensionality Updated

2012 HRRR model

initialization13-km RAP No 13-km 3-D Hourly

2013 HRRR model

initialization13-km RAP yes

3km in 60min spin-up (also using 13km

radar-LH-DFI)3-D Hourly

Rapidly Updating

Analysis (RUA-HRRR)

3-km HRRR1 hr fcst Yes None 3-D Hourly

Real-TimeMeso Analysis (RTMA-HRRR)

3-km HRRR1 hr fcst No None 2-D

Hourly(15 min

planned)

Time-Lagged HRRR (HCPF)

3-km HRRRFcsts No Same as HRRR 2-D Hourly

HRRR Real-Time Exper Products


3-km Interp

Hourly HRRR RTMA



15 hr fcst

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z

GSI2D-VAR

1 hr

fcs

t

GSI2D-VAR

1 hr

fcs

t

ObsObs

3-km HRRR RTMA

HRRR Anx

RTMA

1-hr HRRR Fcst(Background)Valid 19 UTC30 Nov 2012

0-hr HRRR AnalValid 19 UTC30 Nov 2012

10 m Winds

Analysis Increments


3-km Interp

Hourly HRRR Rapidly Updating Anx



15 hr fcst

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z

Cloud Anx

HMObs

1 hr

fcs

t

Cloud Anx

HMObs

1 hr

fcs

t

3-km HRRR RUA

1-hr HRRR Forecast (Background)Valid 22 UTC

03 November 2012

0-hr HRRR Analysis (RUA)Valid 22 UTC

03 November 2012

Obs22 UTC

03 Nov 2012

GSICloud Anx

RapidlyUpdatingAnalysis(RUA)

Specifies HydrometeorsFrom Radar Observations


10-11 hr fcst

09-10 hr fcst

08-09 hr fcst

11-12 hr fcst

10-11 hr fcst

09-10 hr fcst

Forecasts valid 21-22z 27 April 2011 Forecasts valid 22-23z 27 April 2011

All six forecastscombined to formprobabilities valid22z 27 April 2011

HRRR 11z Init

HRRR 12z Init

HRRR 13z Init

Time-Lagged (TL) Ensemble

Spatial radius 45 kmTime radius 1 hrUH threshold 25 m2/s2

13z + 11hr fcstValid 00z 23 May 2011

1300z SPC Tornado Probability

TL Example: 22 May 2011

Tornadic Storm Probability (%)

22 May 2011 Storm Reports

Tornado = Red Dots

AMS 26th SLS Conf 06 Nov 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 61

Joplin, MO

Tornadic Storm Probability (%)

Reflectivity (dBZ)

22 May 2011 Storm Reports

13z + 11hr fcstValid 00z 23 May 2011

Observed Reflectivity00z 23 May

Tornado = Red Dots

AMS 26th SLS Conf 06 Nov 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 62

TL Example: 22 May 2011

Joplin, MO

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

HPCRAC 22 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 63

Jet Maintenance

Jet or Zeus (union)

HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Reliability

HPCRAC 22 Jan 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 64


RAP-ESRL(13 km)




HRRR (3 km)







HRRR WRF-ARWv3.3.1+




Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top


RAP GSD,NCO

North America


(cycled)


(no-cycle)



ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping


Limit Time-Step









RAP WRF-ARW v3.4.1+ GSI-hybrid Yes RRTMG/

LW/SWThompson

v3.4G3 v3.5 + Shallow

MYNN/MYJ?

RUC 9-lev

HRRR WRF-ARWV3.4.1+

RAP I.C. +3km/15min

3km LH

RRTMG/ LW/SW

Thompson v3.4 None MYNN

/MYJ?RUC 9-lev


Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Pressure Top


RAP GSD,NCO

North America


(cycled)


(no-cycle)



ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping


Limit Time-Step








68

13km Rapid Refresh and 3km HRRR hourly updated weather models

ESRL – experimental version• RAPv1 – used in 2011

– Initialized 2011 HRRR– effective but too many storms

• RAPv2 – used in 2012– Initialized 2012 HRRR– Better use of surface obs / radar,

storm bias eliminated– RAP-2013 – 3km/15min radar assim,

GOES cloud assim, ensemble assim• HRRR – 2012

– Major improvement over 2011 HRRR, storm coverage/accuracy

• HRRR – 2013– 3km/15min radar assimilation– Initialized from RAP-2013– Available 45 min earlier, much more

accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer

NWS-NCEP - operational

• Implemented 1 May 2012

• RAPv2 - Scheduled to be implemented in spring 2014

• HRRR – estimated 2015

2015-2016?North American Rapid Refresh

ENSEMBLE (NARRE)• NMMB (from NCEP) & ARW (from ESRL) dynamic cores• Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km• Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of

NMMB- & ARW-based configurations• Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours• EnKF/hybrid data assimilation for ensemble member

initialization• Use 3 different physics suites for ensemble members

but not for data assimilation– RAP physics (Thompson microphysics, Grell-3d cu, MYJ or

MYNN PBL)– NMM physics (Ferrier microphysics, BMJ/Janjic cu, MYJ PBL)– NCAR physics (let MMM recommend - WSM,YSU,KF?)– Consider stochastic physics for a single physics suite

69Sept 2012 – modifications from Stan B. and Geoff D.

NARRE hyb/EnKF assim options – p.1• Separate 1h ensemble data assimilation cycle

– Testing already performed by• CAPS – Ming Xue, Kefeng Zhu –

40km/3h RAP EnKF assimilation• GSD – Ming Hu – 13km/40km/1h RAP EnKF assimilation

• Use of GFS (global) EnKF-produced background error covariance– Only updated every 6h, not available at 1h freq– Current promising testing by

• Dave Parrish and Wan-shu Wu at NCEP in 6h NAM cycle.• ESRL (Ming Hu) with alternative RAP now running since Nov

2012– Clearly outperforms use of fixed background error covariance

(current NCEP NAM and NCEP RAP)

NARRE hybrid/EnKF assimilation options – p2• Separate 1h ensemble data assimilation cycle

– 12-40km resolution, 80 members– 80 (members) / 27 - ~3h 12km forecast

• 27 – 3x resolution **3 – 36km Ensemble

• Use of GFS (global) EnKF-produced background error covariance– Possible interim solution for 1h cycle – require hourly output

from GFS hybrid from 3h-9h, rescale for forecast duration for NARRE

– Other limitations• Resolution• Future extension to cloud/hydrometeor and radar assimilation components.

• Anticipated skill– Fixed BEC (current) < GFS EnKF BEC < NARRE 1h BEC

• Jan 13 update – RAP testing using GSI-hybrid DA with GFS-DA-ensemble fully successful, will be promoted to primary ESRL RAP (initializing HRRR) in February 2013

Assuming 1h EnKF assimilation for NARRE

• Resolution for data assimilation ensemble– 30-40km may be sufficient (and perhaps higher-res

cannot be afforded)• Model for data assimilation EnKF

– Choose single dynamic core (ARW or NMMB), do not mix cores

• Physics for data assimilation EnKF– Apply stochastic physics to a single set

• Successful inflation/localization in RAP ensemble-RAP testing by CAPS, NSSL, U.OK

73

2017-2018?High Resolution Rapid Refresh

ENSEMBLE (HRRRE)• Each member of NARRE contains 3 km nests

– CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico/Hispaniola nests– The two control runs initialized with radar data & other hi-res obs

• This capability puts NWS/NCEP[+OAR/ESRL] in a position to – Provide NextGen Enroute AND Terminal guidance (FWIS-like)– Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability Density

Function specified, hence uncertainty information too– Provide a vehicle to improve assimilation capabilities using hybrid

(EnKF+4DVar) technique with current & future radar & satellite– Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km

• NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs.

• HRRRE requires an increase in HPCC funding over and above that required for the NARRE

From Geoff DiMego, Dec 2011, NCEP Model Review

DRAFT Storm Prediction Center Desired Numerical Guidance Attributes

2015 2017 2022•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~30 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to 84 hrs

•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~40 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer-state-of-the-art DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 4*

•Global Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System: 10-12 km global domain 40-50 member ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 7-10*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 4 km CONUS ~10 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 3 km CONUS ~15 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS SSEF: 2 km CONUS 30-50 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2-3 km movable regional domain ~7 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid run every 2-4 hrs with forecasts to 15-18 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2 km movable regional domain 10-15 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA ,run every 1-2 hrs with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 1 km movable regional domain 20-30 member storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA run every 1 hr with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 4 km EnKF/hybrid DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 1-hr.

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 2 km EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 15 min


•Appropriate RAP (HRRR), Global deterministic / ensemble, and CFS capacities


•Stretch Goal - Warn-on-Forecast Prototype Ensemble: Develop <1 km multi-WFO domain 10-20 member nested SSEF, advanced state-of-the science DA, run as needed every 5-10 min with forecasts to 1-2 hrs*

*Model and data assimilation (DA) complexity will be impacted strongly by High Performance Computing capabilities.

Desired Attributes of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System

74

DRAFT Storm Prediction Center Desired Numerical Guidance Attributes

2015 2017 2022•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~30 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to 84 hrs

•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~40 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer-state-of-the-art DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 4*

•Global Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System: 10-12 km global domain 40-50 member ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 7-10*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 4 km CONUS ~10 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 3 km CONUS ~15 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS SSEF: 2 km CONUS 30-50 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2-3 km movable regional domain ~7 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid run every 2-4 hrs with forecasts to 15-18 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2 km movable regional domain 10-15 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA ,run every 1-2 hrs with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 1 km movable regional domain 20-30 member storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA run every 1 hr with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 4 km EnKF/hybrid DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 1-hr.





•Stretch Goal - Warn-on-Forecast Prototype Ensemble: Develop <1 km multi-WFO domain 10-20 member nested SSEF, advanced state-of-the science DA, run as needed every 5-10 min with forecasts to 1-2 hrs*

*Model and data assimilation (DA) complexity will be impacted strongly by High Performance Computing capabilities.

Desired Attributes of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System

75

Possible alternative NWP 2-member suite - 2022

Global ensemble – as shown by EMC

• 10-12km global 40-50 member ensemble• runs to Day 14 twice daily (to 7d at 06z, 18z)• hourly assimilation cycle with 24h runs init hourly

Single regional model/assimilation ensemble - SSEF• SSEF (equivalent to HRRRe) – 2-3km• Initialize hourly (or subhourly), run to 24h• Every 6h, run out to 48-60h• 2-3km EnKF/hybrid/other DA• Multi-species microphysics with at least 2-moment rain• Include aerosols/fire/smoke for all runs with aerosol-

aware microphysics• No separate HWRF or fire-weather runs or AQ/dust run• 0.5-1.0km multi-WFO nest where needed (WoF)• SSEF analysis = RUA, no separate products

76

Global Continental Local Nesting Strategy

• Discussion items– Nesting necessary to save computing; current NAM domain could be expanded to global 10 km– Advantages/disadvantages of same model for global and regional– Applicability (DA) of a multi-model ensemble-based covariance estimate with multiple bias characteristics– Data assimilation at resolution of 3 km or less poses challenges

• Advanced assimilation of radar reflectivity• Consistent integration of radar and satellite info• Proper dynamically balanced analysis increments at multiple high resolution scales (10, 3, 1 km)

77

DCMIP goal:Identify global model numerical deficiencies, especially for inadvertent or intentional diffusion

March 2, 2012• Major Tornado Outbreak – Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

– 9 killer tornadoes (2 EF-4; 4 EF-3; 2 EF-2, 1 EF-1)– 40 fatalities, numerous injuries and widespread damage

Tornado Damage in Henryville, IN

78SPC report – NCEP model review – Dec12 – Weiss, Jirak, etc.

Simulated Reflectivity (1 km AGL) 24-hr Forecasts Valid 00z 3 March 2012

NAM 4 km CONUS Nest NAM 1.33 km Fire Nest

NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW Observed Radar 2 km Mosaic 30

Both NAM nests develop solid line srn KY/TN with higher reflectivity in Fire Nest NSSL ARW better resolves cellular structures including ahead of QLCS

79

SPC report – NCEP model review – Dec12 – Weiss, Jirak, etc.

NAM 4 km CONUS Nest NAM 1.33 km Fire Nest

NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW Observed Radar 2 km Mosaic

Zoom-in shows “effective resolution” of NAM can be less than NSSL-ARW

80

Simulated Reflectivity (1 km AGL) 24-hr Forecasts Valid 00z 3 March 2012

SPC report – NCEP model review – Dec12 – Weiss, Jirak, etc.

Option: MPAS as a unified global to storm-scale model for NOAA applications

• High-order accurate numerics– Has performd well in DCMIP idealized tests

• Current nest via polygon tesselation– Need to add 1-way separate nest with LBC from

global model but this can be done.• Would also provide unified weather-seasonal-

climate model• Community support (although not intended

by NCAR to be as one-fits-all as WRF)

From HRRR/HRRRe to WoF• Radar-DFI-LH effective start at 13km/3km• Mesoscale environment via GSI enhancements for RAPv2+ critical

for HRRR• 3km/80-member hourly updated GSI-hybrid data assimilation over

HRRR-CONUS domain plausible– Estimated needed 10,000 cores (Jeff W. / Stan)

• Model design for HRRR – most accurate numerics possible necessary for identification of storm structure (line vs. supercells vs. cell vs. MCS variations)– ARW, no 6th order diffusion, 5th-order vertical advection

• WoF options – discussion this week with NSSL, ESRL, EMC, U.OK, SPC partners– direct nest inside HRRR/HRRRe within same executable– Separate system using HRRR/HRRRe lateral BCs/background 82

Storm-Scale Modeling with HRRR toward Warn-On-Forecast NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory GSD/AMB...

Documents

Transcript of Storm-Scale Modeling with HRRR toward Warn-On-Forecast NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory GSD/AMB...