Steve Wiggins: Rural Transformation and Transitions
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Transcript of Steve Wiggins: Rural Transformation and Transitions
1
Transformation,
transitions &
future of
smallholders
recognising
differences
Transition
Increasing GDP/cap
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
S
h
a
r
e
T
o
t
a
l
V
a
l
u
e
Share
Labour in
Agri.
Agri Share
GDP
Value
Agri GDP
VA Agri
Worker
Transformation & Transition
Relative decline of agriculture with economic growth
Most SF today
will not be full-
time SF in
20/30/50 years
Attention!
Not mass exit
Not end of small-
scale farming
Labour transition
may be slow:
SS Africa, 2010--
2020
5
Rural Choices
JobsFarm
RNFE
City
Transition
Brutal
Gentle
Benign Rural Transitions
(FT Comm) Farming
Part-time
Farming RNFERural-Urban Links
Migration
SF
DIFFER3 schema
OECD DAC Rural Worlds
RW1: LSCF
RW2: SF, may hire
RW3: SF survival, food first
RW4: Landless
RW5: Chronic Poor
Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye
Step Up: Potential FT commercial SF
Step Out: diversified RNFE
Hang In: Marginal SF
Latin America [RIMISP]
Latin America: 12 Cs
3%
9%
20%
43%
25%
Commercial Farms
Class A family farms
Class B family farms
Class C family farms
Rural landless
Is it that different in (Eastern) Africa?
SF surveys, 1996/2001
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Mozambique Zambia
He
cta
res
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Policy implications
15
ARD Policy by Cat & Effect
Policy Context Household Assets
Rural Investment
Climate
Peace
Stable Macro-Economy
Low/No Urban Bias
Basic Institutions
Rural Public Goods Roads, Power Human Capital: Education,
Health, Water, Research & Ext.
Correct Rural
Market Failures
↓ TransacHons Costs
↓ Monopoly Power
Esp.: Finance, Inputs
Transfer Capital Grants & Subsidies
Social Protection Jobs
Income Support
Who needs what? A: Step Up B: Step Up C: Step Out Chronic Poor:
Hang In
Rural Investment
Climate
Rural Public
Goods
Correct Market
Failures
Private Sector Approach ?? ??
Institutions, Collectives or State?
Transfer
Capital X X ?? ??
Social
ProtectionX ??
What happens to marginal
SF [C]?
• Part-time/Weekend/Hobby farms
• Entrust/Lend/Rent/Sell to neighbours
Do not (all) leave land
• Support Staple Crops• From 3/6 to 6/9/12 months food supply
Agricultural Policy?
18
Key References
• Timmer, C. Peter, 2009, A World without Agriculture. The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspective,Washington DC: AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute
• Wiggins, Steve, John Farrington, Giles Henley, Natasha Grist & Anna Locke, 2013, Agricultural development policy: a contemporary agenda, Background Paper for GIZ, London: Overseas Development Institute: pp 18–22
• Wiggins, Steve, 2011, Island nation or global citizen? Solving the food crisis by helping small scale farmers, Policy Report, Melbourne: World Vision Australia