STATUS REPORT

19th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5, 2006

Paul Poli (CNRM/GMAP)

replacing Bruno Lacroix (DPrévi/COMPAS)

With contributions from CNRM/GMAP and CNRM/COMPAS

2Outline

• Introduction

• Operational suite(s)– Update on current configurations

– New: 3DVAR assimilation in LAM, chemical transport model

• Test suite– NOAA-18 AMSU-A+MHS

– Aqua/Terra MODIS winds

– GOES/MTSAT cloud-track winds BUFR

• Issues under development– SSM/I

– GPS ZTD

• Future Plans

3Introduction : Ballpark Figures

• Total number of observation counts assimilated every 6 hours in Meteo France global model: 260,000~325,000

(Out of total rcvd)– SYNOP&BUOY (95%)– TEMP (82%)– AIREP (55%)– Wind Profilers (21%)– Geostat. Winds (7%)– ATOVS (4%)– Quikscat (28%)

“Conventional”

Satellite

40% to 60%of total obs used

00,12 UTC 06,18 UTC

4Assimilation/Forecast Suites

• Computing platform– Since mid-2003: Fujitsu VPP 5000, 124 PE

– 2 machines: operations (60 PEs) and research/backup (64 PEs)

– Replacement expected 2006 Q4

• Operational suites:– Global stretched

– Global stretched, very short cutoff (00 UTC only)

– Global uniform

– Limited-Area

– Ensemble Forecast

• Data monitoringhttp://www.meteo.fr/special/minisites/monitoring/menu.html

User/password available upon request herve.benichou@meteo.fr

5Each Assimilation/Forecast Suite

• Two cycles running in parallel– ‘Production cycle’:

• Short cutoff

• Long forecasts

– ‘Assimilation cycle’:• Longer cutoff

• Forecast only +6 hours (first-guess for production cycle)

• Keeps the “memory” of the assimilation system

6

Stretched Global Model Horizontal Resolution

23km

133km133km

7

Supercomputer Platform Machine Load due to Operations only

Global stretched model: 4DVAR analysis in 30 minutes, 24H forecast in 20 minutes

8

Modifications in Operational Suites since Last Data Exchange Meeting (April 2005)

• June 2005: Start of a chemical transport suite to issue air quality forecasts

• July 2005: Start of a 3DVAR assimilation for Limited-Area Model (LAM) over Europe

• January 2006: RS bias correction in global model

9

Chemical Transport Model Operational since 27/06/2005

• 3 domains:– Global/Europe/France

– Horz. resolutions: 4°x4°, 0.5°x0.5°, 0.1°x0.1°

• Observations– Observations currently only used for validation

– Plans to move to assimilation

• Forecasts of air quality up to 96H

10

3DVAR Limited Area Model Operational since 25/07/2005

• Assimilates same observations as operational global model– With the addition of

• Meteosat-8 clear-sky IR radiances from instrument SEVIRI

• T2m and q2m

– Without:• Quikscat

– Only over Europe

– Using 3DVAR

T. Montmerle

11

72H Forecast RMS Error of Global Models over Europe as Compared to RS

Stretched

Uniform

NOAA-16 AMSU-B, Quikscat, EARS

NOAA-17 NCEP SST, sea-ice mask from SSM/I

HIRS, high frequency SATOB

Aqua AMSU-A

12Ocean Wave Models

• 4 models:– Global stretched & uniform, Europe, France

– Horz. resolutions: 1°, 1°, 0.25°, 0.1°

– Global stretched & uniform models assimilate Jason-1 and Envisat altimeter wave height data

– Forecasts up to 102H, 72H, 54H, 54H

J.M. Lefevre

13Observations Usage Summary

Datatype Contact Operations Test Suite

ATOVS E. Gerard

Geostat. winds C. Payan

MODIS winds P. Moll

Quikscat winds C. Payan

Conv. (RS, AIREP, TEMP) P. Moll

GPS ZTD P. Poli (monitoring)

AIRS F. Rabier (monitoring)

N15,16,17,Aqua

GOES,MeteoSat, MTSAT

N18

Aqua,Terra

14Passive Sounders Usage Summary

Satellite/Instrument

NOAA-15

NOAA-16

NOAA-17

NOAA-18

Aqua

AMSU-A Oper Oper Test Oper

AMSU-B or MHS Oper Oper Test

HIRS Monitoring Oper

AIRS Monitoring

15Current Test Suite

Changes as compared to operational suite:

• 46 model levels instead of 41

• Model top 0.1hPa instead of 1hPa

• New radiation scheme

• New physics scheme; now includes following prognostic variables– Cloud liquid water: in suspension, and falling

– Cloud ice water: in suspension, and falling

• Addition of NOAA-18 AMSU-A and MHS

• Cloud-track winds from GOES and MTSAT now in BUFR

• Addition of GPS ZTD monitoring over Europe

16

Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Production cycle

17

Current Coverage in Operations of NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycle

18

Test suite Coverage for NOAA/NASA AMSU-A Assimilation cycleAddition of NOAA-18

19

Current Coverage in Operational suite of Cloud-track Winds

20

Test Suite Coverage for Cloud-track Winds

Addition of Aqua/Terra MODIS winds GOES&MTSAT-1R winds now BUFR

21SSM/I Tests with only F13, F15

E. Gérard

• Over oceans only

• 250 km thinning

• SSM/I-specific quality control:

–Cloudy areas (CLWP > 0.1 kg.m-2)

–Rainy areas (BT37V - BT37H < 40 K)

22

SSM/I Tests: Impact on AnalysisTotal Column Water Vapor

First guessAnalysis

SSM/I assimilation adds water in the tropics – but later

increments stable

With SSM/I

Without SSM/I

E. Gérard

23

SSM/I Tests: Impact on AnalysisTotal Column Water Vapor

Analysis with SSM/I

Increments in SSM/I

experiment

Increments in control

experiment

Difference (analysis with SSM/I) minus

(control analysis)

E. Gérard

24

SSM/I Tests: Impact on Analysis Low Cloud Cover Difference

More clouds with SSM/I

Less clouds with SSM/I

E. Gérard

25

SSM/I Tests: Impact on Forecast Geopotential Scores w.r.t. RS

RMS Std. Dev. Bias

Blue = Improvement Red = DegradationE. Gérard

26GPS ZTD Tests

1 mm ZTD approx. 0.5 hPa surface pressure

1 mm ZTD approx. 0.15 mm integrated water content

er transmittGPS

receiver GPS

1ZTD dssn

GPSTransmitter

ground-based GPS receiver

rad

io link

More than 500 stations over Europe, 11 processing centers more than 900 distinct data sources

Atmospheric refractive index

27GPS ZTD Tests

Station selection process

28

GPS ZTD Tests: Fit of ZTD Data by Processing Center w.r.t. Global Model

Processing center with stations located

in mountaineous area

29GPS ZTD Tests: 4DVAR Assimilation

time

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Predicted model trajectory (forecast)

Analysis

Observations

Timeslots

-2H30-3H00

-1H30-0H30

+0H30+1H30

+2H30+3H00

30GPS ZTD Tests

• Fixed station selection• Fixed bias correction

• Automatic station selection• Sliding average bias correction

Blue = Improvement Red = Degradation

Blue = Improvement Red = Degradation

31

GPS ZTD Tests: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over France (36H-

12H)Frequency Bias Index

Equitable Threat Score

Probability of Detection

False Alarm Rate

WITH GPS

WITH GPS

WITHOUT GPS

WITHOUT GPS

32

Radiosonde Minus Analysis Temperature Bias [contour = 1K]

~1K at 150hPa

Switch to raw radiances

33Plans for the Coming Year

• 4DVAR assimilation in chemical transport model in test suite

• GPS ZTD assimilation in operations (global model)

• SSM/I assimilation in operations• AIRS assimilation in operations• GPS RO in test suite• Limited-area model over La Réunion

• Transition of all suites to new platform

! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

19th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting NOAA Silver Spring, MD May 3-5, 2006