Status of wheat production and food security in Morocco
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Transcript of Status of wheat production and food security in Morocco
STATUS OF WHEAT PRODUCTION
AND FOOD SECURITY IN MOROCCO Nsarellah N.
On behalf of the
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Morocco.
Food security conference
8 – 11 Octobre 2012
Addis Abeba Ethiopia
Outline :
• Current wheat situation and trends in Morocco
• Constraints: wheat production and food security
• Conclusions: long term research goals and
development strategies
Wheat in Morocco • Bread wheat > 2Mha, durum wheat 1Mha • Major staple, consumption: 220 Kg/cap/yr. • 36 Millions people, producction of 5 to 6 MMT. • Mainly in rainfed / drought-prone areas • Mediterranean climate, F-W-S growing season, mild winter, wide regional variability • Highly variable precipitation pattern and large inter-annual fluctuations.
Wheat and barley, perfectly fit for :
• Environment (rainfall, Tc, variability ..)
• Technology (Agronomy, rotation, weed
control, ...)
• Full integration with animal production
• Profitability (500 US$ - 2000 US$ /
ha)
• Mediterranean culture
Description of the value chain
• 1.2 Million producers, 300,000 market oriented
• Industrial millers: 211 units (143 BW, 58DW 19
barley) capacity 9,1 Million MT.
• Small millers 10,000 units 35% of volumes
• Service and products providers (seed, fertilizers,
phyto sanitary, agricultural equipment
• Collectors, traders, intermediaries, storers,
distribution
• Traditional processing and products. Modern
bakeries, couscous / pasta factories.
• Organisations of professionnals
Recent history
• Dams and irrigation plans (>1 MHa)
• Financing and agricultural banks
• Intensification programs (fertilizers, mechanisation etc.. )
• Breadwheat intensification pgm 1980s
• Collecting and pricing for breadwheat.
• Variable taxation of imports / liberalisation
• Storage facilities support,
• Agricultural Insurances
• Green Morocco plan
Areas planted
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 0001960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Years
10
00
Ha BW
DW
Barley
Policy favoring
breadwheat
Wheat Production
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Years
x 1
000 Q
x
Breadwheat
Durum wheat
Wheat Yields
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Years
Qx/h
a
BW
DW
Sufficiency rate 1995 - 2007
y = 2,4638x + 35,762
R2 = 0,3143
y = 0,5438x + 62,269
R2 = 0,027
0102030405060708090
100
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-200
0
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
Years
%
co
vera
ge
Tx couverture BT
Tx couverture BD
Linéaire (Tx couverture BT)
Linéaire (Tx couverture BD)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
576mm639mm
478mm
438mm
383mm
Moving averages of rainfall in Meknes (favorable wheat area)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 910 1 920 1 930 1 940 1 950 1 960 1 970 1 980 1 990 2 000 2 010 2 020
Plu
vio
mé
trie
(m
m) 378mm
1915 - 1939
365mm
1940 - 1979
293mm
1980 - 2006
Rupture
Settat
Moving averages of rainfall in Settat (dryland wheat area)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rende
ment (Q
/ha)
Contribut ion to deviat ion
E
G
GE
contribution to deviation
Genotype(G)
Location (L)
Year (Y)
G x L
G x Y
L x Y
G x L x Y
In this case study:
The environment is responsible
for 50 - 89% Of the variation
(most of it related
to water availability)
The genotype, (G and GE) is
responsible for 11 to 50 %
24 varieties,
5 years and
five sites
Water is the main stress and is affecting all
stresses
Good years stresses
• Waterlogging related root rots
• Yellow and brown rusts
• Septoria, helminthosporium
• Hessain fly, sawfly,
• End of season heat
Dry years stresses
• Water stress
• Hessian fly
• Dryland root rot
• Yellow rusts, leaf rusts
• heat
Water availability
also affects
farmers
Behaviour too
Wheat research in Morocco
• Breeding, Biotechnology, genetic resources
conservation
• Crop management, conservation agriculture ..
• Plant protection IPM.
• Grain quality improvement, add value of end products
• Socio-economy
• Research and development
• INRA is main, 12 exp. Sites, 300 researchers.
• Long established work with CGIAR centers (CIMMYT and ICARDA) Joint activities, networks and projects on related fields with ICARDA. Numerous collaboration in USA and EU.
• North Africa and S. S. Africa
Recent policy (Green Morocco Plan, or GMP)
• Encourages aggregation and organization of production • Agregation includes all activities in value chain; It could be related to end production at the level of the farm, the community and the national market. • State support is for accepted integrated projects. • Helps investments in inputs, machinery or infrastructure that would improve productivity; • Certified seed is one of the emphasized factors. • GMP aims at improving productivity while cutting on wheat areas in drought prone zones.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
Années
Ren
dem
ent (
Q/h
a)
1979
1987
1995 2000
1999
1997
1981
1980 1983
1993
1992
1982
1984
1985
1989
1990
1998
2001
2002
2005
1986
1994
1991
1988
1996
2004
2003
2006
Trends in breadwheat
Zones to be
unsupported
Basic constraints still remaining 1. Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and
abiotic stresses: High Risk for investments
2. Small size and fragmentation of holding: technical difficulties hampers modernisation of production
3. The value chain is continuously changing: relations, prices and services, role of the state, world market. etc..
ADD Interaction of all above
Our response to constraints
1) Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and abiotic
stresses: High Risk for investments
• Scientific research : crop production technologies, crop
varieties, natural resources management, grain quality,
basic scientific and socio economic knowledge.. Results are
all there but still needs adoption (C. seeds) and impact
•What about development alternatives (irrigation ?) Yields in irrigated areas can be > 5T/ha at the farm, Supplemental
irrigation may double yield in dry years. 150 dams,
Our response to constraints (2)
Small size and fragmentation of holdings:
technical difficulties hampers modernisation
of production
• Development: Agregation, and other forms of
farmers organisation.
• State facilitates or subsidizes modern agriculture
(projects)
Our response to constraints (3)
The value chain is continuously changing: clients
preferences, relations, prices and services, role of
the state, world market. etc..
• Forum for networking and contacts of value chain or
system.
• State subsidises / facilitates agregated production. (Millers,
seed producers, producers etc.. )
•Agregator can be any of stake holders. Helping other
private entrepreneurs establish.
Conclusions Research must continue: Diagnosing, preventing
losses, developping technical solutions But the greatest remaining challenges are : 1. Technology transfer
2. Value chain integration
3. State policies and legislations
4. Integration of research in the value chain
Closing comments:
• States should schift from a cost benefit analysis
to an oportunity cost analysis to better adress food
security.
• Climate and global market changes are and will
be impacting Morocco and North Africa heavily;
they should be our main worry in tackling food
security.
Drier, Hotter, & More Variable
Thank you for your attention