Status of tilapia aquaculture in Africa and production ... · Africa and production projections...
25
Status of tilapia aquaculture in Africa and production projections (regional and international) Martin Van der Knaap Project Inception Workshop of GCP/RAF/510/MUL: Enhancing capacity/risk reduction of emerging Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) to African tilapia aquaculture Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel, 23-24 October 2018, Nairobi, Kenya
Transcript of Status of tilapia aquaculture in Africa and production ... · Africa and production projections...
Status of tilapia aquaculture in
Africa and production projections
(regional and international)Martin Van der Knaap
Project Inception Workshop of GCP/RAF/510/MUL:
Enhancing capacity/risk reduction of emerging Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) to African tilapia aquaculture
Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel, 23-24 October 2018, Nairobi, Kenya
Outlook models
• Projections and not forecast
• Likely paths of development and constraints in fishery and aquaculture supply and demand
• Determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the sector
• Medium/longer outlook
Fish to 2030Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture
• World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), FAO, University of Arkansas
• IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
• Capture and aquaculture supply modeled for 16 fish species group and 115 country/regions
• http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/i3640e/i3640e.pdf
Projected Total Fish Supply
90.463.6
2011 (Data)
Capture Aquaculture
Total Harvest154.0 Million Tonnes
93.4 95.7
2030 (Model)
Capture Aquaculture
Total Harvest189.1 Million Tonnes
• More than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030• India
• Latin America and Caribbean
• Southeast Asia
• 50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030• South Asia (excl. India)
• Middle East and North Africa
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030• Everywhere else
Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions
• More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030• South Asia (excl. India)
• 30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030• India• Southeast Asia• North America• Middle East and North Africa• China• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Decline from 2010 to 2030• Japan
Consumption Growth: Regions
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
ECA NAM LAC EAP CHN JAP SEA SAR IND MNA AFR ROW
2010 2030
• Scenario 1: Faster aquaculture growth
• Scenario 2: Expanded use of fish processing waste in fishmeal and fish oil production
• Scenario 3: A major disease outbreak in shrimp aquaculture in Asia and in Tilapia aquaculture worldwide
• Scenario 4: Accelerated shift of consumer preferences in China
• Scenario 5: Improvement of capture fisheries productivity
• Scenario 6: Impacts of climate change on the productivity of capture fisheries
Six hypothetical scenarios
0
40
80
120
160
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Capture
Total fish production
Aquaculture
Million tonnes
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.
Surpass of aquaculture (2013 and 2021)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Total capture
Capture for food
Aquaculture
Million tonnes
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.
Aquaculture growth
11
%+26 million tonnes
p.a. 0.7 1.8 1.5 3.1 2.3 3.3
Oceania0% North
America0%
Africa3%
Europe3%
Latin America
3%
Asia91%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NorthAmerica
Europe Oceania LatinAmerica
Asia Africa
Per capita fish consumption
2006
Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption
2026
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Per capita fish consumption
Kg (lw)
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
0
10
20
30
40
World Developingcountries
Developedcountries
Africa LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
Europe Asia Oceania
2014-16 2026
Per capita consumption: fish and meat in 2026
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Trade of fish and fishery products (2015 value)
Central America & Caribbean
2%
Oceania2%
Africa4%
North America
8%
South America
10%
Europe36%
Asia38%
Exports
Central America & Caribbean
1%
Oceania2%
South America
2%
Africa4%
North America
17%
Asia33%
Europe41%
Imports
Africa: imports (average 2013-2015 Value)
28%
27%
35%
1%
2%
6%
Fish food supply
Per capita fish consumption
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
World
LIFDCs
Asia
Africa
Europe
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America & the Caribbean
Per capita fish consumption (kg)
Fish contribution to human nutrition
0 5 10 15 20 25
World
LIFDCs
Asia
Africa
Europe
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America & the Caribbean
Share of fish in total animal proteins (%)
Tilapia production projection
•Global tilapia production is expected to almost double from 4.3 million tons to 7.3 million tons between 2010 and 2030.
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oreochromis niloticus from Aquaculture (global)
Quantity (t) Value ($)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tilapia aquaculture production in Africa
Quantity (t) Value ($)
Thank you for your attention
Project Inception Workshop of GCP/RAF/510/MUL:
Enhancing capacity/risk reduction of emerging Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) to African tilapia aquaculture
Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel, 23-24 October 2018, Nairobi, Kenya
