WIND CONSTRAINTS & OPPORTUNITIES AN AIRLINE OPERATIONS CENTER (AOC) PERSPECTIVE TOM LLOYD
Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future
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Transcript of Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future
Wheat in Morocco (Bread and durum wheat)
• Major crop and staple food in Morocco.
• High per capita consumption (200 Kg/p/yr)
• Planted on over two million(BW) and one million hectares (DW).
• Mainly rainfed and in drought-prone environments
• Highly variable precipitation pattern translate into large inter-annual
fluctuations.
Wheat Production
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5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Years
Pro
du
cti
on
(1000 Q
x)
Breadwheat
Durum wheat
Production
National bread wheat
yearly production
ranges from 10 to 45
MT while that of durum
wheat ranges from 7 to
25 MT.
Yields are variable and
range from 0.7 T/ha to
2.2 T/ha.Yields are
greater in irrigated or
favorable areas
(superior to 4.5 T/ha).
Most agricultural activities in Algeria
are in the north of the country. The
dominant crops are annual, and mainly
field crops such as cereals, forages,
food legumes and potatoes. With 238
million hectares, Algeria is now the
largest country in Africa, but only 3.4
percent is arable land, of which less
than one-fifth is cultivated (8.6million
hectares) or 3.5% of its total area is
used for agricultural production.
Irrigated cereals cover about 245,000
hectares.
Cereal production On average, annual cereal production in Algeria is about 3.2million tons with a range varying from 1.7million tons to 5.25million tons. 55% of Algerian farmers are producing cereals. Wheat is on average for this last decade 67.1% of all cereal production.
OUTLOOK OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
• Total land used: 10 millions of ha
• Total arable land used in agriculture: 5 millions of ha
• Perimeters irrigated: 395000 ha
• Number of farmers: 516 000
Cereals Forage Leguminous Vegetable
crops
Fruit trees
1 500 000 ha 300 000 ha 75 000 ha 145 000 ha 2 145 000 ha
DGPA
Cereals Sector
1.5 Million hectares (30% of agricultural land)
800 000 ha Durum Wheat
150 000 ha Bread Wheat
550 000 ha Barley
Cereal irrigated area: around 100 000 ha under supplementary and full
irrigation (irrigated wheat yield around 3,7 t/ha).
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Main component of the Tunisian Diet (70 % of the Calories and 40% of
the proteins)- highest consomption rates per capita among the world .
Average Wheat Production is around 1.2 million Tons (1.5 million tons
2005-2009)
Annual Cereal needs estimated 3 million tons (Wheat needs
estimated to 1.6 million Tons)
50 to 70 % self sufficiency in Durum Wheat
30% self sufficiency in Bread Wheat
Large contribution to animal feed ( barley)
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5
10
15
20
25
2001 2005 2010
DW
BW
Total
Wheat production (million qx)
LIBYA Ninety percent of all 1.670.000km² is desert. So 2% only is arable.
Wheat and barley covers 234.731 Has. 90% of wheat is fully irrigated.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
YEARS
PROD (Tons)
Yields are 1.2T/ha rainfed
& 3.91 pivot irrigation.
The Arab Republic of Egypt,
Country in northeastern Africa and southwestern Asia, it forms the
only land bridge between the two continents. Most of Egypt’s
terrain is desert, divided into two unequal parts by the Nile River.
The valley and delta of the Nile are the main centers of habitation.
Egypt’s area of cultivable land is small but highly fertile. It is located for the
most part along the Nile and in the Nile Delta. Yields are high, and almost
every piece of land grows at least two crops a year (about 3,000,000
hectares).
Egypt consumes about 14 million tons of wheat annually, but
produces only 60 percent of that
Average yearly production is 138 thousand metric tons.
Irrigation plays a major role in a country the very livelihood
of which depends upon a single river.
Basic constraints
• Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and
abiotic stresses: High Risk for investments
• Small size and fragmentation of holding:
technical difficulties hampers modernization of
production
• The value chain is continuously changing:
relations, prices and services, role of the state,
world market. etc..
MOROCCO
Most of the arable land
is situated in semi arid
areas where wheat is
predominating with 43%
of total cereal acreage.
Only 4% of this area
receives around 500mm
of precipitation, all the
rest has an amount of
rainfall ranging from 350
to 450mm.
The yields are low due to several abiotic and biotic stresses.
-Scarcity and poor quality of underground water resources,
-low and erratic rainfall,
-drought recurrence,
-high and low temperatures and salinity are the key
constraints to agricultural production.
Cereal pests (diseases and insects) are also
causing a real problem mainly in epidemic
situation
Technical constraints such as non respect of technical itinerary,
(abusing use of disc harrow, bad seedbed preparation, hand sowing or
misuse of seed drill, use of low quality seed, low application of
fertilizers and weed control.
machinery adjustment, harvest losses are also causing problems.
Limited area
No possibility for area expansion
Abiotic constraints: Mostly semi arid area Drought ( rainfall amount /distribution) and terminal heat stress are major
yield limiting factors
*Biotic Stresses: Diseases (Septoria, Rusts, root rots &nematodes), Insects
(Aphids, Hessian Fly, saw fly..), weed resistance to herbicide
*Small size of Farms: (low adoption rates of improved technologies)
*Low efficiency of extension services
*Crop management (sub-optimal use of inputs)
*High cost of Inputs
16
LIBYA
*Abiotic stresses (High temperatures, salinity..)
*Croping techniques : (low adoption rates of
improved technologies, low use of inputs)
*Lack of suitable varieties with high yield
potential and good end use quality.
Egyptian agriculture is suffering from natural constraints, mainly
water resources and land limitations. Arable land is only 2.6% of total
area.
Several policies: Price, Subsidies, markets, credits, land ownership,
water management.
Environmental problems (high demography and anarchic
urbanization)
The North African countries account for more than 50% exchanges of
durum wheat in the world.
Regional trade considerations:
Given the large areas of arable land and relatively small
consuming population in the US, Canada, Australia and Argentina,
it is easy to see why these major exporters have substantial
exportable supplies. Importers, however, are more difficult to
assess in this way.
Much of the import trade is concentrated in two relatively well defined
regions. More than 60% of net wheat trade is destined for either North
Africa, the Middle East or Eastern Asia. This has important implications
for the type and source of wheat used.
Much of the wheat imported into North Africa and the Middle East is used
for pan as opposed to oven baked breads. North Africa is also a significant
market for durum wheat where it is used to produce cous-cous rather than
pasta.
Source: USDA
Imports
Thousand
Metric Tons
Egypt 6.300
Algeria 3.300
Libya 1.400
Morocco 1.000
Tunisia 900
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES
•Develop irrigation (partial, full…) and modernize it.
• WUE techniques.
• Adoption of new production technologies such as
conservation agriculture to help preserve natural and input
resources.
• Develop new agronomic packages.
• Promote high and stable varieties, resistant to major
pests & with good end use quality.
•Use of new biotechnology tools (Marker Assisted
Selection, Double Haploid etc…) to accelerate new
germplasm development.
• Increase & insure availability seed prodIuction &
delivery.
• Strengthening scientific capacity building.
• Training young scientists and farmers.
• More efforts on extension.
• Develop bilateral and regional networks (different
thematics).
• Strong government encentives to farmers (inputs,
access to credit, leasing machinery…).
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES