Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

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Presentation by Dr. Abdelkader Benbelkacem (INRA, Algeria) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 8, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Transcript of Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Page 1: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future
Page 2: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future
Page 3: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Wheat in Morocco (Bread and durum wheat)

• Major crop and staple food in Morocco.

• High per capita consumption (200 Kg/p/yr)

• Planted on over two million(BW) and one million hectares (DW).

• Mainly rainfed and in drought-prone environments

• Highly variable precipitation pattern translate into large inter-annual

fluctuations.

Page 4: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Wheat Production

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5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1960

1964

1968

1972

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1996

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2008

Years

Pro

du

cti

on

(1000 Q

x)

Breadwheat

Durum wheat

Production

National bread wheat

yearly production

ranges from 10 to 45

MT while that of durum

wheat ranges from 7 to

25 MT.

Yields are variable and

range from 0.7 T/ha to

2.2 T/ha.Yields are

greater in irrigated or

favorable areas

(superior to 4.5 T/ha).

Page 5: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Most agricultural activities in Algeria

are in the north of the country. The

dominant crops are annual, and mainly

field crops such as cereals, forages,

food legumes and potatoes. With 238

million hectares, Algeria is now the

largest country in Africa, but only 3.4

percent is arable land, of which less

than one-fifth is cultivated (8.6million

hectares) or 3.5% of its total area is

used for agricultural production.

Irrigated cereals cover about 245,000

hectares.

Cereal production On average, annual cereal production in Algeria is about 3.2million tons with a range varying from 1.7million tons to 5.25million tons. 55% of Algerian farmers are producing cereals. Wheat is on average for this last decade 67.1% of all cereal production.

Page 6: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

OUTLOOK OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

• Total land used: 10 millions of ha

• Total arable land used in agriculture: 5 millions of ha

• Perimeters irrigated: 395000 ha

• Number of farmers: 516 000

Cereals Forage Leguminous Vegetable

crops

Fruit trees

1 500 000 ha 300 000 ha 75 000 ha 145 000 ha 2 145 000 ha

DGPA

Cereals Sector

1.5 Million hectares (30% of agricultural land)

800 000 ha Durum Wheat

150 000 ha Bread Wheat

550 000 ha Barley

Cereal irrigated area: around 100 000 ha under supplementary and full

irrigation (irrigated wheat yield around 3,7 t/ha).

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Main component of the Tunisian Diet (70 % of the Calories and 40% of

the proteins)- highest consomption rates per capita among the world .

Average Wheat Production is around 1.2 million Tons (1.5 million tons

2005-2009)

Annual Cereal needs estimated 3 million tons (Wheat needs

estimated to 1.6 million Tons)

50 to 70 % self sufficiency in Durum Wheat

30% self sufficiency in Bread Wheat

Large contribution to animal feed ( barley)

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5

10

15

20

25

2001 2005 2010

DW

BW

Total

Wheat production (million qx)

Page 8: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

LIBYA Ninety percent of all 1.670.000km² is desert. So 2% only is arable.

Wheat and barley covers 234.731 Has. 90% of wheat is fully irrigated.

0

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YEARS

PROD (Tons)

Yields are 1.2T/ha rainfed

& 3.91 pivot irrigation.

Page 9: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

The Arab Republic of Egypt,

Country in northeastern Africa and southwestern Asia, it forms the

only land bridge between the two continents. Most of Egypt’s

terrain is desert, divided into two unequal parts by the Nile River.

The valley and delta of the Nile are the main centers of habitation.

Egypt’s area of cultivable land is small but highly fertile. It is located for the

most part along the Nile and in the Nile Delta. Yields are high, and almost

every piece of land grows at least two crops a year (about 3,000,000

hectares).

Page 10: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Egypt consumes about 14 million tons of wheat annually, but

produces only 60 percent of that

Average yearly production is 138 thousand metric tons.

Irrigation plays a major role in a country the very livelihood

of which depends upon a single river.

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Page 12: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Basic constraints

• Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and

abiotic stresses: High Risk for investments

• Small size and fragmentation of holding:

technical difficulties hampers modernization of

production

• The value chain is continuously changing:

relations, prices and services, role of the state,

world market. etc..

MOROCCO

Page 13: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

Most of the arable land

is situated in semi arid

areas where wheat is

predominating with 43%

of total cereal acreage.

Only 4% of this area

receives around 500mm

of precipitation, all the

rest has an amount of

rainfall ranging from 350

to 450mm.

The yields are low due to several abiotic and biotic stresses.

-Scarcity and poor quality of underground water resources,

-low and erratic rainfall,

-drought recurrence,

-high and low temperatures and salinity are the key

constraints to agricultural production.

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Cereal pests (diseases and insects) are also

causing a real problem mainly in epidemic

situation

Technical constraints such as non respect of technical itinerary,

(abusing use of disc harrow, bad seedbed preparation, hand sowing or

misuse of seed drill, use of low quality seed, low application of

fertilizers and weed control.

machinery adjustment, harvest losses are also causing problems.

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Limited area

No possibility for area expansion

Abiotic constraints: Mostly semi arid area Drought ( rainfall amount /distribution) and terminal heat stress are major

yield limiting factors

*Biotic Stresses: Diseases (Septoria, Rusts, root rots &nematodes), Insects

(Aphids, Hessian Fly, saw fly..), weed resistance to herbicide

*Small size of Farms: (low adoption rates of improved technologies)

*Low efficiency of extension services

*Crop management (sub-optimal use of inputs)

*High cost of Inputs

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LIBYA

*Abiotic stresses (High temperatures, salinity..)

*Croping techniques : (low adoption rates of

improved technologies, low use of inputs)

*Lack of suitable varieties with high yield

potential and good end use quality.

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Egyptian agriculture is suffering from natural constraints, mainly

water resources and land limitations. Arable land is only 2.6% of total

area.

Several policies: Price, Subsidies, markets, credits, land ownership,

water management.

Environmental problems (high demography and anarchic

urbanization)

Page 18: Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

The North African countries account for more than 50% exchanges of

durum wheat in the world.

Regional trade considerations:

Given the large areas of arable land and relatively small

consuming population in the US, Canada, Australia and Argentina,

it is easy to see why these major exporters have substantial

exportable supplies. Importers, however, are more difficult to

assess in this way.

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Much of the import trade is concentrated in two relatively well defined

regions. More than 60% of net wheat trade is destined for either North

Africa, the Middle East or Eastern Asia. This has important implications

for the type and source of wheat used.

Much of the wheat imported into North Africa and the Middle East is used

for pan as opposed to oven baked breads. North Africa is also a significant

market for durum wheat where it is used to produce cous-cous rather than

pasta.

Source: USDA

Imports

Thousand

Metric Tons

Egypt 6.300

Algeria 3.300

Libya 1.400

Morocco 1.000

Tunisia 900

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

•Develop irrigation (partial, full…) and modernize it.

• WUE techniques.

• Adoption of new production technologies such as

conservation agriculture to help preserve natural and input

resources.

• Develop new agronomic packages.

• Promote high and stable varieties, resistant to major

pests & with good end use quality.

•Use of new biotechnology tools (Marker Assisted

Selection, Double Haploid etc…) to accelerate new

germplasm development.

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• Increase & insure availability seed prodIuction &

delivery.

• Strengthening scientific capacity building.

• Training young scientists and farmers.

• More efforts on extension.

• Develop bilateral and regional networks (different

thematics).

• Strong government encentives to farmers (inputs,

access to credit, leasing machinery…).

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

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