1

Status of Refrigerant Changes Impacting the HVACR Industry

Rajan Rajendran, Ph.D.

Vice President – Systems Innovation and Sustainability

May 3, 2016

2

Agenda

1 Background, Montreal Protocol and Amendment

2 Regional and National Regulations

3 Refrigerants Standards and Codes

4 Industry Refrigerant Research Activities

5 Energy Efficiency Regulations

6 Paris Agreement on Climate Change

7 Questions

Background, Montreal Protocol and Amendment

44

Ozone Hole: Reason for R-12 and R-22 Phase-out(Exposure to UV Radiation Leads to Skin Cancer)

Montreal Protocol, signed Sept. 16, 1987, bans CFCs and HCFCs

55

1999

100

50

0

%

1996

CAP

100%

65%

25%

10%

US

EU

A5 Nations

Today

32.5% - 2025

2.5% - 2030

0% - 2040

2004

No New

Equipment EU

2010

No New

Equipment US 2013

“Freeze”

A5 Nations

20202015

90%

65%

Montreal Protocol Agreement for Reducing ODP Refrigerants: R-22 Phase-out Timeline

Developing nations (Article 5 countries) are only now beginning to phase-down the use of HCFC 22

66

Montreal Protocol’s Positive Impact on Ozone Hole

But the story does not end there…..

Ozone hole is still large, but healing;

full recovery is expected ~2070.

Source: NASA. Image from Nov. 2, 2014

False-color view of total ozone over the Antarctic

pole. The purple and blue colors are where there

is the least ozone, and the yellows and reds are

where there is more ozone.

7

A New Concern: Climate Change, the Driver for HFC Actions

88

Montreal Protocol’s Positive Impact on Climate Change

Many nations started taking independent actions – potential for a patchwork of global regulations

Montreal Protocol has the biggest

impact on climate change!*

… But, developing nations’

growth could dwarf gains,

per predictions**.* Economist, January 2014

* *Velders et al, OEWG35, Bangkok, April 22, 2015

99

North American Proposal for HFC Phase-down

Canada, US, Mexico proposed this several years ago; other proposals also on table – India, Micronesia, African nations, etc.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

GW

P W

eig

hte

d C

ap (

% o

f B

aselin

e)

Year

Non- A5 Countries

(US, Canada etc)

A5 Countries (Asia, etc.)

1010

Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal ProtocolDubai Agreement

• 27th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in Dubai, UAE, on 11/5/15

– Agreement reached to phase down HFCs

– Negotiations underway on details

– Expect target ~20% range; the years and steps are to be determined

• Article 5 (developing) and high ambient countries could get different schedule and limits

– Currently phasing out of HCFC22 and asked to phase down HFCs…and their economies are growing

– Alternative refrigerants for high ambient conditions are not yet fully understood

• Three meetings scheduled for this year

– 4-8 April, 18-23 July, 10-14 Oct

– Is final deal likely in last meeting?

NA and European commitment is strong and Article 5 countries engaging well – hoping for agreement by end of year

Regional and National Regulations

1212

European F-Gas Regulation

F-gas implementation is underwayGrowth in CO2 and propane systems highest in this region

13

EPA’s Final RulePhase-Out Candidates*, Likely Alternatives* and Dates

* Refer to Tables 4, 5 and 6 of Final Rule for complete details

Phase-Out

Refrigerant

Super-

market

New

Super-

market

Retrofit

Remote

Cond. Unit

New

Remote

Cond.

Unit

Retrofit

Stand-Alone

MT <2,200 BTU/hr. and

not contain flooded evap.

New

MT ≥2,200 BTU/hr. with or

without flooded evap.

New

LT

New

LT and MT

Retrofit

R-404A/507AJan 1,

2017

July 20,

2016

Jan 1,

2018

July 20,

2016Jan 1, 2019 Jan 1, 2020

Jan 1,

2020

July 20,

2016

R-410A OK - OK - Jan 1, 2019 Jan 1, 2020Jan 1,

2020-

R-407A/C/F OK OK OK OK Jan 1, 2019 Jan 1, 2020Jan 1,

2020OK

HFC-134a OK OK OK OK Jan 1, 2019 Jan 1, 2020 OK OK

Some

Likely

Alternatives

R448A/449A OK OK OK OKNeither SNAP-

approved, nor banned

Neither SNAP approved,

nor bannedOK

OK for LT

only

R-450A/513A OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

R-290 - - - - OK OK OK -

R-744 OK - OK - OK OK OK -

R-717

OK (in

primary loop

of secondary

CO2 sys.)

-

OK (in primary

loop of

secondary CO2

sys.)

- - - - -

Reference: Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Rules and Regulations, 42870-42959

1414

US EPA: Additional Change of Status for

Refrigerants Proposed, March 29, 2016

https://www.epa.gov/snap/snap-regulations

1515

US EPA: Additional Change of Status for

Refrigerants Proposed, March 29, 2016

1616

US EPA: Additional Change of Status for

Refrigerants Proposed, March 29, 2016

1717

US EPA: Additional Change of Status for

Refrigerants Proposed, March 29, 2016

Once proposed rule published in Federal Register, there will be a comment period before rule is published final

1818

Environment Canada (EC) Proposal

• Mar 23, 2016 EC issued a Consultation Document on Proposed Regulatory Measures on HFCs*

• Phase-down (NAP) option also proposed (2019-90%; 2024-65%; 2030-30%; 2036-15%; baseline 2011-2013)

• Comment period ends April 29, 2016; final rule expected later this year or early in 2017

Medium temperature stand alone systems might face challenges similar to situation in the US

* https://www.ec.gc.ca/ozone/default.asp?lang=En&n=77A94123-1

Application GWP Limit and Year (Jan 1, 20XX)

Ref – Stand alone MT Max 650 GWP; Jan 1, 2020

Ref – Stand alone LT Max 1500 GWP; Jan 1, 2020

Ref – Central systems (racks, both MT/LT) Max 1500 GWP; Jan 1, 2020

Foams Max 150 GWP, Jan 1, 2021

AC – Chillers Max 700 GWP; Jan 1, 2025

Domestic Ref Max 150 GWP; Jan 1, 2025

Mobile Ref Max 2200 GWP; Jan 1, 2025

1919

EPA Proposal to Amend Clean Air Act Section 608

Ref. Mgmnt. Regs (11/9/15)

• Lowers repair leak rate threshold for 50+ lbs. refrigerant charge systems

– From 35% to 20% for industrial process refrigeration (IPR) and comm. ref. equipment

– From 15% to 10% for comfort cooling equipment

• Requires regular leak inspections or continuous monitoring devices for ref/AC systems:

– Annual inspections for systems normally containing 50+ lbs. of refrigerant

– Quarterly inspections for commercial refrigeration and IPR systems normally containing 500+ lbs. of refrigerant

• Prohibits operation of systems with 50+ lbs. of refrigerant that have leaked 75% or more of full charge for two consecutive years

• Requires techs to keep a record of refrigerant recovered during system disposal from systems with a charge size from 5–50 pounds

• Extends the requirements of the refrigerant management program to cover substitute refrigerants, such as HFCs

Final rule expected before the end of this year

http://www.epa.gov/section608/proposal-amend-section-608-refrigerant-management-regulations

2020

Environment Canada Regulations on Refrigerant Management

• Federal Halocarbon Regulations, 2003, regulates HFCs as well as ODP fluids; Provincial regulations mirror federal

– Systems with > 50 kg (110 lb) should have refrigerant leak monitoring system

– Inspections required per manufacturer recommendations or twice a year

– Systems >10 kg refrigerant should have self-reseating relief valve vented to atmosphere

– Requires recovery, reclaim of all refrigerant

• Regulations are strong in design and best practices

https://www.ec.gc.ca/ozone/default.asp?lang=En&n=144CE038-1https://www.ec.gc.ca/ozone/default.asp?lang=En&n=127A4F77-1

2121

California Proposal for Regulating HFCs

• Governor’s 2015 order to reduce all GHGs (over 1990 levels)

40% in 2030 80% in 2050

• Draft strategy released September 2015

– All sectors targeted for emission reductions

1/1/2021 - New commercial refrigeration equipment, <150 GWP

1/1/2022 - New HVAC equipment (comm. and resi), <750 GWP

– If international and national actions inadequate, CA will follow Europe, Australia and Japan in taking additional measures like above

• Final proposal in “Spring 2016”

States/Provinces (in US/Canada) and nations in EU could pass more stringent regulations – we have to be aware

Refrigerant Standards and Codes

2323

State of Standards and Codes – Global View

Increasing charge limits for flammables is global trendExpect safety standards in 2017; codes follow standards

Refrigerant

ClassificationUsage Restriction Application

ASHRAE34

Refrigerant Designation

& Safety Classification

UL2182

ASHRAE15

Safety Standards for

Refrigeration Systems

2015-2018

UL1995

Heating and Cooling

Equipment 2014-2015

UL471

Commercial

Refrigerators and

Freezers 2015-2019

UL621

Ice Cream Makers

2015-2019

UL606335-2-40

Heating and Cooling

Equipment

Refrigerant

ClassificationUsage Restriction Application

Based on ISO EN378

Refrigeration System

and HP 2014-2016

Based on IEC Based on IEC Based on IEC

Refrigerant

ClassificationUsage Restriction Application

ISO817

Refrigerant Designation

& Safety Classification

(2013-2014)

ISO5149

Safety and

Environmental

Requirements, Phase 1

Phase 2 2014-2015

IEC60335-2-40

Heating and Cooling

equipment

2015-2017

IEC60335-2-89

Commercial

Refrigerating

Appliances

2015-2019

IEC60335-2-24

Refrigerating appliances

Ice and Ice Cream

Makers

2015-2019

Un

ite

d S

tate

sE

uro

pe

Inte

rna

tio

na

l

complete under revision

2424

International Codes

• Codes are used by inspectors to approve buildings and equipment

• Three codes commonly used that affect our industry:

– International Machine Code (IMC)

– International Fire Code (IFC)

– Uniform Mechanical Code (UMC)

• Refrigerant Codes and Standards Task Force working to move process along

Next code change cycle for incorporating A2L updates is 2018-2021

Industry Refrigerant Research Activities

2626

Current State of Refrigerant OptionsLow GWP alternatives are flammable or high pressure

ASHRAE numbers are now issued for several synthetic alternatives –first step for EPA approval

R-410A

Like

Capacity

R404A &

R407/22

Like

R134a

Like

GWP Level

400-675

< 1500

~600

~300

HFO 1234yf

HFO 1234ze

ARM-42

R410A

R22

R407A

R407C

R407F, R452A = XP44

ARM-35

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Pressure

or

R32/HFC/HFO

Blends

R32/HFO

Blends

R134a

CO2

R404A

R507A

DR2, HFO 1233zd, ARC 1

R290

NH3

A1 – Non-Flammable

A2L – Mildly Flammable

A3 – Flammable

B2L – Toxic, Mildly Flam.

R123-Like

(V.Low Pr.)

(3922)

R32

R448A = N40

R449A = DR33

R449B = ARM-32

N20

R513A = XP10

R450A = N13z

R444B = L20

L40, DR7

ARM-20b

R455A = L40x(HDR110)

DR3

ARM-20a

R447B = L41z; R452B = XL55

L41y, ARM-71a

<150

Qualitative – Not to Scale

R515A

2727

AHRI’s Low GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program (AREP)*

• Both studies concluded with Low GWP AREP conferences held ahead of ASHRAE meetings in 2014 and 2016

• General observations:

– All were drop-in testing with limited modifications (expansion devices)

– Results indicate many alternatives are promising; optimization needed

– Compressor testing showed that in some cases, different oils might be needed for the alternates

AREP was good for industry, next step is redesign and optimization

Phase Refrigerants Reports Equipment Tested

I - 2014 38 40 RTU, Split Ducted, Chiller, Ice,

CRE, Transport, Compressors

II - 2016 29 30 RTU, Split Ducted, Chiller,

Stand Alone Ref

Compressors*See http://ahrinet.org/site/508/Resources/Research for details

2828

AHRI Flammable Refrigerants Subcommittee

• Objectives

– Identify gaps in flammable refrigerant research

– Develop roadmap to complete critical research needed for safe use

– Focus on 2L refrigerants

• Schedule

– Before end 2017, for 2021 Building Codes cycle

• Members

– Chemical, original equipment and component manufacturers among others

• Projects proposed

– Assess risk by real-life leaks (ref and oil) and ignitions testing

– Investigate ignition temps for A2L fluids at various conditions with oil and air effects

– Investigate basis for setting charge limits of A2L, A2, and A3 refrigerants

A definitive research in public domain for A2L fluids that will impact flammable refrigerants adoption

2929

High Ambient Testing of Alternative Refrigerants

• Issue raised during negotiations of HFC phase down - lack of high ambient performance data for low GWP alternatives

• US and UNEP/UNIDO funded four projects 2013 – 2015

– PRAHA (Promoting low GWP Refrigerants for Air Conditioning Sectors in High Ambient Temperature Countries)

– EGYPRA (Egyptian Project for Refrigerant Alternatives)

– AHRI Low GWP AREP II – High Ambient Tests

– DOE’s ORNL High Ambient Tests

• HCFC 22 and R-410A alternatives, including R290 tested; in most cases they were “drop-in” testing

• Some observations of the different studies

– R-410A alternatives performed better than R410A

– R32 performed well but very high discharge temperatures

– HCFC 22 alternatives results mixed

– R290 had lower capacity, higher efficiency

Proprietary, optimized system testing is likely next stepQuestion: For Mideast, HCFC 22 or R-410A alternatives?

Energy Efficiency Regulations

31

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Supermarket (Rack)

Walk-In (Remote CDU)

Cooler

Freezer

Reach-In (Stand-Alone)

Cooler <2,200 BTU

>2,200 BTU

Freezer

Ice Machine

EPA and DOE Changes Impact Refrigeration

<2,500 GWP

<2,500 GWP

20–40%

<600 GWP

<600 GWP

<1,500 GWP

30–50%

5–15%

EPA Refrig. DOE Energy

1/1/17

1/1/18

3/27/17

Awaiting Final Court Sign-Off

1/1/18

1/1/20

1/1/19

1/1/20

20–30%

32

HVAC Dealing With Over 15 DOE Activities

Product Covered Expected

Rulemaking

Timing

2015 Regional Std– Enforcement 2016

Residential Central AC And HP 2021 2016

Commercial - > 6Ton 2016

Packaged Terminal AC & HP 2015

Single Package Vertical Units (eg.

Mobile Homes, Telecom Towers, Bard

Units)

2015

1.5-5 Ton 3 Ph, Commercial 2015

Product Covered Expected

Rulemaking

Timing

Commercial CAC & HP – Water &

Evaporative Cooling

2018

Pool Heaters 2017

Commercial Water Heaters 2016

Residential Water Heaters 2016

Residential Furnaces – 92AFUE 2016

Residential Furnace Blowers 2015

Commercial Warm Air Furnaces 2016

Small Electric Motors 2016

Electric Motors 2016

33

DOE Regulations in Residential HVAC

SouthEast

SEER HSPF SEER SEER EER

AC <45KBtu/hr 14 15 15 12.2 / 10.2*

AC >= 45KBtu/hr 14 14.5 14.5 11.7 / 10.2*

HP 15 8.8

Packaged Units 14 8 11

North SouthWest

* 10.2 EER limit for equipment >= 16 SEER

2023 Standard Proposed Levels To ASRAC

• In 2023 Potential Changes To Appendix M1 (Test Procedure)

• Changes To Static Pressure, Heating Load Line

• Will Require New Metric Instead SEER And HSPF

• 2015 Regional Standard Enforcement Rule In Progress – Expected in 2016

• Record Keeping Requirements For Manufacturers, Distributors & Contractors

• DOE Policy Guideline On Units Without High Sales Indoor Match

• Dry Charge Units Without Matched Combination banned from 1st Feb, 2016

34

DOE Regulation In Commercial AC

Efficiency Standards 6-10 Ton 11-20 Ton 21-63 Ton

ASHRAE 90.1-201011.0 EER 10.8 EER 9.8 EER

11.4 IEER 11.2 IEER 10.1 IEER

DOE – EL1 (90.1 2013) 11.2 EER 11.0 EER 10.0 EER

Eff. Date: 1/1/2018 12.9 IEER 12.4 IEER 11.6 IEER

% Improvement vs. 2010 13.2% 10.7% 14.9%

DOE – EL3 14.8 IEER 14.2 IEER 13.2 IEER

Eff. Date: 1/1/2023

% Improvement vs. 2010 29.8% 26.8% 30.7%Note: Electric Resistance Values Shown, Subtract 0.2 EER/IEER For All Other Equipment

CEE Commercial Unitary AC and HP Specification

(w/ Electric Heat or No Heat)

Old Specifications Current Specifications

Size

CategorySystem Type

CEE

Tier 0

CEE

Tier 1

CEE

Tier 2

CEE

Tier 1

CEE

Tier 2

CEE

Advanced Tier

6 10 Ton

Single

Packaged and

Split

11.7 EER

11.8 IEER

11.7 EER

13.0 IEER

12.2 EER

14.0 IEER

11.7 EER

12.9 IEER

12.2 EER

14.0 IEER

12.6 EER

18.0 IEER

11 20 Ton

Single

Packaged and

Split

11.7 EER

11.8IEER

11.7 EER

12.5 IEER

12.2 EER

13.2 IEER

11.7 EER

12.4 IEER

12.2 EER

13.2 IEER

12.2 EER

17.0 IEER

21 63 Ton

Single

Packaged and

Split

10.5 EER

10.6 IEER

10.5 EER

11.3 IEER

10.8 EER

12.3 IEER

10.5 EER

11.6 IEER

10.8 EER

12.3 IEER

10.8 EER

13.5 IEER

Note: Electric Resistance Values Shown, Subtract 0.2 EER/IEER For All Other Equipment

Effective Jan 2016

Paris Climate Change Agreement

3636

2015 Was Warmest Year Since 1880USA Today Article, 1/20/16

News stories like this one have brought the global warming issue to the forefront everywhere

3737

Paris Agreement - Highlights

• Global climate change agreement reached - COP21 Meeting, Paris, 12/12/2015

– Target emission reductions (all emissions) that will

• Limit global temp rise to 2C above preindustrial levels (stretch goal 1.5C)

– Agreement not legally binding

• Countries must update/submit their pollution reduction pledges (NDC –Nationally Determined Contributions) by 2020

– First “Global Stocktake” in 2023 and every five years thereafter

• Observations:

– A 2C limit means reducing emissions by 40-70% by 2050 compared to 2010

– HFCs not singled out but are one of the greenhouse gases

– COP21 Paris Agreement is “emissions” focused

Montreal Protocol Treaty (legally binding) is “consumption” focused

Paris agreement is non binding, but NDCs will have impact on HVACR industry for many years into the future

Questions?

Thank you!