ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would like to extend a vote of thanks to following people without whose guidance, help and support it would not have been possible to make this project.

Ms. Neetu Jain My Business Statistics teacher who guided me and motivated me to work on this topic. Having studied Science in school it became very easy to relate the topics covered in class due to very good classroom teachings. She has given me her time and has taken the pain to go through my project. Not just that, she has inspired me to try my best at the project and has instilled and interest in me for the subject. I would also like to thank my parents for their kind support and help throughout the course of making the project.

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the Project Work titled Statistical Analysis of the Share Price of Reliance Industries Ltd. is a bonafide work of Mrigank Sanghvi (50302) carried out in partial fulfillment for the award of degree of Bachelor of University of Delhi under my guidance. This project work is original and not submitted earlier for the award of any degree / diploma or associate ship of any other University / Institution.

SignatureINDEX1. Company Profile2. General Milestone3. Financial Milestone4. Objectives5. Statistical Tools Used6. Reliance Industries Ltd. Data

7. Analysis of the Data

8. Interpretation

9. Conclusion

COMPANY PROFILEReliance Industries Ltd.

Key Information

Reliance Industries Ltd. Key Facts

Web Address www.ril.com

Turnover ($ Mn) 200,400

Financial year-end: March

Number of Employees: 23365 (2010)

BSE 500325

NSE RELIANCE

Company Overview Key

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is one of India's largest private sector companies and a Fortune Global 500 company. Its major activities include the exploration and production of oil and gas, petroleum refining and marketing, petrochemicals, textiles, retailing and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) business. It is the largest polyester yarn and fiber producer in the world. It is also among the top five to ten producers in the world in major petrochemical products. Its key asset in India is the refinery at Jamnagar, Gujarat. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India and employs approximately 24,698 people.

Business Overview

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is the largest private sector company in India, operating in more than 100 countries around the world. The company has exploration and production interests in India, Yemen and Oman. RILs operations are organized into three reportable business segments: Petrochemicals, including the manufacturing and marketing of polymers, polyester, polyester intermediates and chemicals; Refining and Marketing of petroleum products and others which involves the exploration and production of oil and gas, textiles, SEZ business and retailing business. RILs principal subsidiaries include:

Reliance Petroleum Limited

Reliance Retail Limited

Reliance Industries (Middle East) DMCC

Mission Statement

RILs vision is to reach out to its stakeholders by creating value for shareholders, offering a rewarding environment for its employees, providing high quality products and services for customers and improving quality of life for communities.

Strategy

RIL is among Indias largest private sector business companies on all major financial parameters including sales, profits, net worth and assets. The company strives for value addition at every stage across all business segments. RIL is the one of the very few companies globally to have achieved a remarkable degree of vertical integration and value addition.

RILs business strategy emphasizes on building and sustaining leadership position across all its product categories, by delivering the best and value-added products to its customers. The company seeks to:

Pursue attractive trade opportunities

Implement vertical integration

Focus on prudent financial management

Invest in high growth opportunities

The company also believes in creating its businesses and facilities in an organic manner. It has grown by setting up world-class projects, scaling them up to meet local and global demand, investing in R&D to develop future prospects and markets and developing a large pool of qualified and skilled manpower. The company has followed the scheme of selective mergers and acquisitions, which ensure greater synergy with its operations.

For the petrochemicals and refining business, the companys strategy is to continuously strive for global leadership and be amongst the lowest cost producers worldwide. The company has been investing for effective research, standardized quality, safety and environment and has thereby set new benchmarks in the industry.

In the near future, RIL aims to make strategic decisions with regard to the emerging businesses that it is seeding today. These include:

Identifying new businesses with high growth potential

Investing in businesses that can scale rapidly and generate superior returns

Aspiring to be lowest cost manufacturer and service provider GENERAL MILESTONE

2010 During the year, RIL and BP announced a strategic partnership in the oil and gas business. This partnership comprises BP taking 30 per cent stake in 23 oil and gas production sharing contracts that Reliance operates in India, including the KG-D6 block, and the formation of a joint venture (50:50) for sourcing and marketing gas in India.

During the year, the Company took a significant step by entering into partnerships in the United States of America with Atlas Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources and Carrizo Oil & Gas through three distinctive joint venture agreements. It has also entered into a separate joint venture with Pioneer Natural Resources aimed at addressing the mid-stream opportunity in gas evacuation and transportation.

During the year, RIL and Russia's SIBUR announced a joint venture for the setting up of a facility for producing 100,000 tonnes of butyl rubber in India.

During the year, RIL acquired a 95% stake in Infotel Broadband Services Limited, which emerged as a successful bidder in all the 22 circles of the auction for Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) spectrum conducted by the Department of Telecommunication, Government of India. RIL has invested Rs. 4,201.64 crore by way of subscription to equity capital issued by Infotel Broadband.

2009 RIL joins the league of global deepwater oil and gas operators - RIL commenced production of hydrocarbons in its KGD6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin with the production of sweet crude of 420API. The production of oil in KG-D6 was commissioned in just over two years of its discovery, making it the worlds fastest green-field deepwater oil development project.

With the commissioning of the new refinery in its Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Jamnagar has now become the petroleum hub of the world. With 1.24 Million Barrels Per Day (MBPD) of nominal crude processing capacity, it is the single largest refining complex in the world.

RPL merger with RIL: Value creation through scale and synergies - The merger of Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) with Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has enabled seamless integration of operational scale and financial synergies that existed between the two Companies. Assets and liabilities of RPL have been transferred to RIL with effect from 1st April 2008, as per the approval granted by the Hon. High Courts of Mumbai and Gujarat. Shareholders of RPL received 1 share of RIL in lieu of every 16 shares of RPL held by them, as per the scheme of merger. Accordingly, 6.92 crore new equity shares of RIL have been allotted to the shareholders of RPL.

FINANCIAL MILESTONE

2011

Revenue crossed Rs. 2,50,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,58,651 crore, US$ 58.0 billion), Net Profit crossed Rs. 20,000 crore mark (Rs. 20,286 crore, US$ 4.5 billion) and Total Assets crossed Rs. 2,80,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,84,719 crore, US$ 63.8 billion), unparalleled in the Indian Private sector. Exports crossed Rs. 1,40,000 crore mark (Rs. 1,46,667 crore, US$ 32.9 billion), 13.4% of India's total exports.

RIL declares Dividend of 80%. Payout of Rs 2,385 Crore, one of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.

2010

Revenue crossed Rs. 2,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,00,400 crore, US$ 44.6 billion), Net Profit crossed Rs. 16,000 crore mark (Rs. 16,236 crore, US$ 3.6 billion) and Total Assets crossed Rs. 2,50,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,51,006 crore, US$ 55.9 billion), unparalleled in the Indian Private sector. Exports crossed Rs. 1,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 1,10,176 crore, US$ 24.5 billion), 14.5% of India's total exports.

RIL declares Dividend of 70%. Payout of Rs 2,084 Crore, one of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.

2009

Total Assets crossed Rs. 2,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,45,706 crore, US$ 48.44 billion), Networth crossed Rs. 1,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 1,26,373 crore, US$ 24.92 billion), unparalleled in the Indian Private sector. RIL declares Dividend of 130%. Payout of Rs 1,897 Crore, one of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.

OBJECTIVES To analyze the Reliance Industries Ltd. Share Price

To see the trend prevalent in the Stock Market & in the Stock of Reliance Industries Ltd. when the recession was setting in. To calculate daily returns on Reliance Industries Ltd. & BSE SENSEX.

To calculate and interpret various statistical measures like Arithmetic Mean, Median, Mode, Quartiles, Range, Standard Deviation, Variance, Skewness, Correlation, etc. To calculate the extent of correlation between Reliance Industries Ltd. & SENSEX

To compute the regression equations of Reliance Industries Ltd. & SENSEX

To find out, which of the two of Reliance Industries Ltd. & SENSEX, is less volatile by comparing the coefficient of variationsSTATISTICAL TOOLS USEDARITHMETIC MEAN

An arithmetic mean is a single value within the range of the data that is used to represent all of the values in the series. Since an average is somewhere within the range of the data, it is also called a measure of central value.

MEDIAN

The median refers to the middle most value in the observation. In case of median one half of the items in the distribution have a value the size of a median value or smaller and one half has a value the size of the median value or larger.

MODE

Mode is defined as that value which occurs the maximum number of times, i.e., having the maximum frequency. In some fields, notably education, sample data are often called scores, and the sample mode is known as the modal score.

STANDARD DEVIATION

The standard deviation concept was introduced by Karl Pearson in 1823. It measures the absolute dispersion, the greater the standard deviation, for the greater will be the magnitude of the deviations of the values from their mean. It is also known as the Root mean square deviation.

VARIANCE

The term variance was used to describe the square of the standard deviation by R.A. Fisher in 1913. The concept of variance is highly important in advanced work where it is possible to split the total into several parts each attributable to one of the factors causing variation in their original series.

COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

The relative measure of dispersion is known as the coefficient of variation. It is the most commonly used measure of relative variation. It is used in such problems where we want to compare the variability of two or more than two series.

SKEWNESS

Skewness refers to the asymmetry or the lack of symmetry in the shape of a frequency distribution. A distribution is said to be skewed when the mean and the median fall at different points in the distribution and the balance is shifted to one side or the other- to left or right.

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

Correlation analysis attempts to determine the degree of relationship between the variables. If two or more quantities vary in sympathy so that movements in one tend to be accompanied by corresponding movements in the other(s) they are said to be correlated.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression is the measure of the average relationship between two or more variables in terms of the original units of the data. It attempts to establish the nature of relationship between variables that is to study the functional relationship between the variables and thereby provide a mechanism for prediction, or forecasting.

REGRESSION EQUATION

Regression equations are algebraic expressions of the regression lines. Since there are two regression lines there are two regression equations- the regression equation of X on Y is used to describe the variations in the values of X for given changes in Y and vice-versa.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. DATA

For 6-Sept-2007 to 5-Sept-2008DateLow PriceClose Price30 Day MovingBSE SENSEXDaily ReturnsEventDaily ReturnsEvent

Averageon RILon BSE SENSEX

5-Sep-082067.052079.402217.0514483.83-0.04Loss-0.03Fall

4-Sep-082133.002152.652223.2514899.10-0.03Loss-0.01Fall

2-Sep-082125.102213.552223.3115049.860.03Profit0.04Rise

1-Sep-082106.002140.552221.3014498.510.00Profit0.00Fall

29-Aug-082075.002136.752220.3714564.530.03Profit0.04Rise

28-Aug-082057.002073.702216.3314048.34-0.04Loss-0.02Fall

27-Aug-082140.002147.852212.0514296.79-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

26-Aug-082145.902179.652206.3514482.22-0.02Loss0.00Rise

25-Aug-082221.102230.952201.9214450.35-0.01Loss0.00Rise

22-Aug-082191.002245.652194.7714401.490.01Profit0.01Rise

21-Aug-082204.002212.352188.0514243.73-0.01Loss-0.03Fall

20-Aug-082220.002244.152183.6414678.230.01Profit0.01Rise

19-Aug-082196.102221.352174.7914543.730.00Loss-0.01Fall

18-Aug-082210.002224.952168.3514645.66-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

14-Aug-082260.052275.302164.1514724.18-0.03Loss-0.02Fall

13-Aug-082310.552340.902157.3415093.120.00Loss-0.01Fall

12-Aug-082315.502342.252150.7515212.130.01Profit-0.02Fall

11-Aug-082275.002326.002140.8115503.920.03Profit0.02Rise

8-Aug-082230.002250.452133.0615167.82-0.01Loss0.00Rise

7-Aug-082248.602271.402130.7715117.25-0.01Loss0.00Rise

6-Aug-082282.002295.852129.7015073.540.01Profit0.01Rise

5-Aug-082206.702276.002124.3514961.070.01Profit0.03Rise

4-Aug-082233.152242.502117.3614577.87-0.03Loss-0.01Fall

1-Aug-082160.002299.752110.0114656.690.04Profit0.02Rise

31-Jul-082154.002206.202103.2414355.750.02Profit0.00Rise

30-Jul-082084.952163.202104.5314287.210.04Profit0.04Rise

29-Jul-082077.302085.202108.5413791.54-0.05Loss-0.04Fall

28-Jul-082105.552179.102116.6814349.110.01Profit0.01Rise

25-Jul-082132.252147.352120.2014274.94-0.07Loss-0.03Fall

24-Jul-082255.102306.552124.2314777.010.02Profit-0.01Fall

23-Jul-082180.002265.502123.4114942.280.05Profit0.06Rise

22-Jul-082136.602154.302123.2214104.200.00Profit0.02Rise

21-Jul-082090.602153.302124.7313850.040.02Profit0.02Rise

18-Jul-081995.052112.652125.0513635.400.05Profit0.04Rise

17-Jul-081965.002015.552129.2813111.850.03Profit0.04Rise

16-Jul-081922.501945.352137.0112575.80-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

15-Jul-081970.001976.802149.0812676.19-0.04Loss-0.05Fall

14-Jul-081992.352046.802163.4113330.510.01Profit-0.01Fall

11-Jul-081992.002016.402173.7113469.85-0.01Loss-0.03Fall

10-Jul-082034.002044.102186.5513926.24-0.02Loss0.00Fall

9-Jul-082011.152079.952200.6313964.260.05Profit0.05Rise

8-Jul-081931.201978.602215.3613349.65-0.03Loss-0.01Fall

7-Jul-081998.002028.152232.5113525.99-0.03Loss0.01Rise

4-Jul-082050.002099.002249.0713454.000.01Profit0.03Rise

3-Jul-082026.002071.102264.2613094.11-0.03Loss-0.04Fall

2-Jul-081991.202143.102282.4713664.620.05Profit0.05Rise

1-Jul-082025.302044.202299.9612961.68-0.02Loss-0.04Fall

30-Jun-082076.002093.252318.5513461.60-0.04Loss-0.02Fall

27-Jun-082137.002181.902336.6213802.22-0.03Loss-0.04Fall

26-Jun-082145.552239.252351.3114421.820.05Profit0.01Rise

25-Jun-082015.002135.352361.0014220.070.03Profit0.01Rise

24-Jun-082012.002066.202373.2014106.580.02Profit-0.01Fall

23-Jun-081984.052022.202389.4814293.32-0.04Loss-0.02Fall

20-Jun-082079.102096.602406.3314571.29-0.07Loss-0.03Fall

19-Jun-082230.002245.002425.3115087.99-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

18-Jun-082275.002283.502439.8915422.31-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

17-Jun-082262.002329.202452.2615696.900.02Profit0.02Rise

16-Jun-082262.002284.852463.4715395.820.01Profit0.01Rise

13-Jun-082252.252268.302476.4715189.62-0.01Loss0.00Fall

12-Jun-082185.002281.752488.0215250.200.01Profit0.00Rise

11-Jun-082200.002260.002500.4015185.320.03Profit0.02Rise

10-Jun-082140.102199.402511.4714889.250.02Profit-0.01Fall

9-Jun-082112.002163.102525.6415066.10-0.04Loss-0.03Fall

6-Jun-082212.002239.352539.5615572.180.00Loss-0.01Fall

5-Jun-082177.202247.652550.8315769.72-0.03Loss0.02Rise

4-Jun-082285.102307.202562.8215514.79-0.04Loss-0.03Fall

3-Jun-082318.602406.802573.9815962.560.02Profit-0.01Fall

2-Jun-082332.802355.702581.6616063.18-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

30-May-082391.002401.652591.2916415.57-0.03Loss0.01Rise

29-May-082445.252466.502598.2016316.26-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

28-May-082473.002521.802600.9816525.370.01Profit0.02Rise

27-May-082481.802493.202599.1816275.59-0.01Loss0.00Fall

26-May-082490.002524.852596.6716348.50-0.01Loss-0.02Fall

23-May-082547.002554.802591.8916649.64-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

22-May-082595.502617.352586.9216907.11-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

21-May-082570.002667.902577.0817243.160.02Profit0.00Rise

20-May-082575.002602.002567.9417230.18-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

16-May-082601.002635.202559.3317434.940.00Profit0.00Rise

15-May-082535.002622.652549.6617353.540.04Profit0.02Rise

14-May-082484.002529.952537.7216978.350.01Profit0.01Rise

13-May-082488.752501.452531.6416752.86-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

12-May-082480.002554.502524.0916860.900.01Profit0.01Rise

9-May-082510.002527.652515.5616737.07-0.05Loss-0.02Fall

8-May-082653.252666.152508.4617080.65-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

7-May-082622.502682.352492.9417339.310.01Profit0.00Fall

6-May-082636.002654.402475.5017373.010.00Loss-0.01Fall

5-May-082651.502665.702458.5317490.900.00Loss-0.01Fall

2-May-082614.002674.852442.3617600.120.02Profit0.02Rise

30-Apr-082605.152614.852430.5917287.31-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

29-Apr-082580.052653.002418.1517378.460.02Profit0.02Rise

28-Apr-082583.502592.052408.9217015.96-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

25-Apr-082561.252624.502400.7417125.980.02Profit0.02Rise

24-Apr-082557.102580.902389.0316721.080.00Profit0.00Rise

23-Apr-082566.252577.202377.9616698.04-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

22-Apr-082600.002607.452368.4816783.87-0.01Loss0.00Rise

21-Apr-082622.502642.152356.2816739.330.00Profit0.02Rise

17-Apr-082623.152636.952345.0316481.200.00Loss0.01Rise

16-Apr-082618.002644.802339.0816244.190.01Profit0.01Rise

15-Apr-082489.502608.802335.4716153.660.02Profit0.02Rise

11-Apr-082415.002550.052334.7715807.640.03Profit0.01Rise

10-Apr-082409.002467.702335.6215695.100.02Profit-0.01Fall

9-Apr-082351.252418.052338.4215790.510.02Profit0.01Rise

8-Apr-082358.602381.252338.8115587.62-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

7-Apr-082322.002405.702342.8315757.080.03Profit0.03Rise

4-Apr-082315.002322.202345.3815343.12-0.03Loss-0.03Fall

3-Apr-082344.002393.752353.0715832.550.02Profit0.01Rise

2-Apr-082305.002343.602358.3515750.400.00Loss0.01Rise

1-Apr-082245.502345.102366.5815626.620.03Profit0.00Fall

31-Mar-082251.002264.502372.2315644.44-0.04Loss-0.04Fall

28-Mar-082231.002347.552376.3116371.290.03Profit0.02Rise

27-Mar-082245.002275.002375.5316015.56-0.01Loss0.00Fall

26-Mar-082274.202298.702375.5316086.83-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

25-Mar-082220.002314.402379.6316217.490.05Profit0.06Rise

24-Mar-082126.052200.802383.3115289.400.02Profit0.02Rise

19-Mar-082148.002159.052395.0214994.830.01Profit0.01Rise

18-Mar-082120.002145.352410.2514833.46-0.02Loss0.00Rise

17-Mar-082154.002180.602425.1614809.49-0.06Loss-0.06Fall

14-Mar-082225.002321.702437.2015760.520.03Profit0.03Rise

13-Mar-082201.002241.652442.4615357.35-0.06Loss-0.05Fall

12-Mar-082360.002376.202450.0616127.980.01Profit0.00Rise

11-Mar-082215.152346.552456.7016123.150.03Profit0.01Rise

10-Mar-082123.102273.202463.9515923.720.01Profit0.00Fall

7-Mar-082167.052248.802475.1615975.52-0.02Loss-0.03Fall

5-Mar-082227.902292.752483.2216542.080.02Profit0.01Rise

4-Mar-082210.002241.502491.9616339.89-0.03Loss-0.02Fall

3-Mar-082290.052304.752495.8416677.88-0.07Loss-0.05Fall

29-Feb-082410.002458.252503.8317578.72-0.03Loss-0.01Fall

28-Feb-082522.252536.702515.2017824.48-0.02Loss0.00Fall

27-Feb-082571.252587.552530.5217825.990.00Profit0.00Rise

26-Feb-082534.002575.752547.5517806.190.01Profit0.01Rise

25-Feb-082411.002551.702567.0917650.570.05Profit0.02Rise

22-Feb-082414.652429.802589.2417349.07-0.03Loss-0.02Fall

21-Feb-082458.502501.602612.5217734.680.01Profit0.01Rise

20-Feb-082460.002482.252630.0317617.60-0.03Loss-0.03Fall

19-Feb-082527.102553.002648.3618075.660.00Profit0.00Rise

18-Feb-082537.402552.002664.9418048.05-0.02Loss0.00Fall

15-Feb-082466.002590.552680.3918115.250.03Profit0.02Rise

14-Feb-082425.002514.702693.5717766.630.05Profit0.05Rise

13-Feb-082340.002386.902706.5116949.140.03Profit0.02Rise

12-Feb-082258.002324.152722.3416608.010.02Profit0.00Fall

11-Feb-082230.002274.852739.7716630.91-0.06Loss-0.05Fall

8-Feb-082391.502421.752759.9817464.890.00Loss0.00Fall

7-Feb-082409.002425.002775.8717526.93-0.05Loss-0.03Fall

6-Feb-082512.252552.052791.5118139.49-0.03Loss-0.03Fall

5-Feb-082570.002616.002803.0018663.160.01Profit0.00Rise

4-Feb-082562.002592.602808.7318660.320.02Profit0.02Rise

1-Feb-082424.002541.652812.8018242.580.02Profit0.03Rise

31-Jan-082375.052479.502818.2417648.710.00Profit-0.01Fall

30-Jan-082458.602469.602826.5517758.64-0.04Loss-0.02Fall

29-Jan-082538.002575.652836.8218091.940.00Profit0.00Fall

28-Jan-082440.002564.002847.2618152.78-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

25-Jan-082435.352609.552856.2218361.660.05Profit0.07Rise

24-Jan-082441.102490.552865.4717221.74-0.03Loss-0.02Fall

23-Jan-082358.002554.852878.4117594.070.08Profit0.05Rise

22-Jan-082120.002358.052887.3316729.94-0.08Loss-0.05Fall

21-Jan-082361.002544.202903.4517605.35-0.10Loss-0.07Fall

18-Jan-082780.002799.502914.4619013.70-0.07Loss-0.03Fall

17-Jan-082976.002996.252917.9019700.82-0.03Loss-0.01Fall

16-Jan-083032.603098.352913.4919868.11-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

15-Jan-083135.253162.002907.9520251.09-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

14-Jan-083125.003216.302897.5820728.050.03Profit0.00Fall

11-Jan-083000.003128.152884.3120827.450.03Profit0.01Rise

10-Jan-083015.253027.052872.9220582.080.00Loss-0.01Fall

9-Jan-083012.003031.952866.7520869.78-0.01Loss0.00Fall

8-Jan-083001.003050.502861.7820873.330.01Profit0.00Rise

7-Jan-082951.003015.602853.8120812.650.01Profit0.01Rise

4-Jan-082902.002985.852844.2520686.890.03Profit0.02Rise

3-Jan-082831.102902.902835.4620345.200.01Profit-0.01Fall

2-Jan-082818.102861.802831.5920465.300.01Profit0.01Rise

1-Jan-082834.402847.102831.2820300.71-0.01Loss0.00Rise

31-Dec-072875.102881.052832.2320286.99-0.01Loss0.00Rise

28-Dec-072865.102898.352831.9220206.950.00Profit0.00Fall

27-Dec-072871.102894.352831.5620216.720.00Loss0.00Rise

26-Dec-072772.552896.702824.9420192.520.04Profit0.02Rise

24-Dec-072714.002788.052817.6219854.120.03Profit0.04Rise

20-Dec-072695.052714.702815.8719162.570.00Profit0.00Rise

19-Dec-072654.002704.752816.8119091.96-0.01Loss0.00Rise

18-Dec-072702.252728.852818.7419079.64-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

17-Dec-072763.202777.502816.2919261.35-0.04Loss-0.04Fall

14-Dec-072815.302889.052812.5020030.830.02Profit0.00Fall

13-Dec-072815.552832.752806.6220104.39-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

12-Dec-072845.552886.902801.2520375.870.00Profit0.00Rise

11-Dec-072822.002878.752797.7720290.890.02Profit0.02Rise

10-Dec-072808.002822.502794.1619930.68-0.01Loss0.00Fall

7-Dec-072806.002841.652794.3319966.00-0.01Loss0.01Rise

6-Dec-072866.002874.552789.3519795.87-0.01Loss0.00Rise

5-Dec-072863.002902.802781.1319738.070.01Profit0.01Rise

4-Dec-072847.002863.852771.3619529.50-0.02Loss0.00Fall

3-Dec-072850.002932.202762.6119603.410.03Profit0.01Rise

30-Nov-072814.252850.752745.3019363.190.01Profit0.02Rise

29-Nov-072795.052818.402732.5819003.260.01Profit0.00Rise

28-Nov-072770.302786.302724.5018938.87-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

27-Nov-072822.002842.002721.3019127.73-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

26-Nov-072825.002882.852714.8419247.540.02Profit0.02Rise

23-Nov-072721.002811.452707.5518852.870.03Profit0.02Rise

22-Nov-072666.802728.802699.4018526.320.00Profit0.00Fall

21-Nov-072700.002722.002696.0918602.62-0.02Loss-0.04Fall

20-Nov-072760.002786.852692.6019280.80-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

19-Nov-072841.102852.502686.3919633.36-0.01Loss0.00Fall

16-Nov-072806.902875.702671.8719698.360.00Profit0.00Fall

15-Nov-072850.052871.702658.8119784.89-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

14-Nov-072695.002887.502643.8419929.060.07Profit0.05Rise

13-Nov-072651.552695.852627.3819035.480.01Profit0.02Rise

12-Nov-072606.002676.952613.8318737.27-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

9-Nov-072686.102735.702601.1318907.600.00Loss-0.01Fall

8-Nov-072692.202742.752587.2819058.93-0.01Loss-0.01Fall

7-Nov-072632.002762.652573.2619289.830.04Profit-0.01Fall

6-Nov-072640.152655.502561.1619400.670.00Loss-0.01Fall

5-Nov-072635.002663.652551.2019590.78-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

2-Nov-072605.002712.702538.2219976.230.02Profit0.01Rise

1-Nov-072640.352671.602520.8719724.35-0.04Loss-0.01Fall

31-Oct-072747.252782.552504.2419837.990.00Profit0.00Rise

30-Oct-072746.002770.502480.1119783.51-0.02Loss-0.01Fall

29-Oct-072692.002827.652455.3719977.670.05Profit0.04Rise

26-Oct-072610.002692.252428.9319243.170.02Profit0.03Rise

25-Oct-072594.002628.052406.7418770.890.01Profit0.01Rise

24-Oct-072552.502609.502386.2418512.910.00Profit0.00Rise

23-Oct-072412.002601.552365.4618492.840.07Profit0.05Rise

22-Oct-072384.402412.752344.9917613.99-0.02Loss0.00Rise

19-Oct-072413.052469.202329.9417559.98-0.04Loss-0.02Fall

18-Oct-072525.002575.902253.1817998.39-0.04Loss-0.04Fall

17-Oct-072278.602690.3018715.820.02Profit-0.02Fall

16-Oct-072617.102648.3019051.86-0.01Loss0.00Fall

15-Oct-072566.002664.1519058.670.04Profit0.03Rise

12-Oct-072542.002566.8518419.04-0.02Loss-0.02Fall

11-Oct-072585.252629.6518814.070.00Profit0.01Rise

10-Oct-072600.002617.3518658.250.01Profit0.02Rise

9-Oct-072367.002600.4518280.240.07Profit0.05Rise

8-Oct-072384.602416.9517491.39-0.03Loss-0.02Fall

5-Oct-072422.002483.9017773.360.02Profit0.00Fall

4-Oct-072361.002422.5517777.140.01Profit0.00Fall

3-Oct-072278.602393.5517847.040.04Profit0.03Rise

1-Oct-072264.252289.3517328.620.00Loss0.00Rise

28-Sep-072268.002296.2017291.10-0.01Loss0.01Rise

27-Sep-072308.602320.2017150.560.00Loss0.01Rise

26-Sep-072312.002321.9516921.39-0.03Loss0.00Rise

25-Sep-072333.352399.6016899.540.02Profit0.00Rise

24-Sep-072288.002356.7016845.830.03Profit0.02Rise

21-Sep-072151.102274.4016564.230.04Profit0.01Rise

20-Sep-072160.052192.1016347.950.01Profit0.00Rise

19-Sep-072075.002172.9016322.750.05Profit0.04Rise

18-Sep-072007.002058.4015669.120.01Profit0.01Rise

17-Sep-072021.102028.4515504.430.00Loss-0.01Fall

14-Sep-072026.002034.5015603.800.00Profit0.00Fall

13-Sep-072005.202026.5015614.440.01Profit0.01Rise

12-Sep-071986.002012.9515505.360.01Profit0.00Fall

11-Sep-071980.151986.3015542.770.00Loss0.00Fall

10-Sep-071945.001987.2015596.830.01Profit0.00Rise

7-Sep-071954.001961.4015590.42-0.01Loss0.00Fall

6-Sep-071983.301949.9015616.31

ANALYSIS OF THE DATAFREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS

Stock PricesFrequencyCumulativeMid PointF * MP

1945-208625252015.550387.50

2086-222730552156.564695.00

2227-2368521072297.5119470.00

2368-2509281352438.568278.00

2509-2650471822579.5121236.50

2650-2791302122720.581615.00

2791-2932272392861.577260.50

2932-307372463002.521017.50

3073-321442503141.512574.00

Total250616534.00

ARITHMETIC MEANA.M. = Total of Stock Prices = 616534 = Rs. 2466.136

Total no. of Stocks

250Similarly, for BSE SENSEX

A.M. = 16929.61

MEDIAN

Median = L + N/2 - C.f. x i

FHere, Median Class is 2368 2509Thus,

L = 2368,C.f. = 107,F = 28,

i = 141Median = 2368 + (250/2) - 107 x 141

28

= Rs. 2458.64MODE

Mode = L + F0 F1 x i

2F0 F1 F2

Here, Modal Class = 2227 - 2368

L = 2227,F0 = 52,

F1 = 30,

F2 = 28,

i = 141

Mode = 2227 + 52 30 x 141

2x52 30 28

= Rs. 2294.43

QUARTILES

Q j = L + jN/4 C.f. x i

FNow,

For Q1 , L = 2227,C.f. = 55,F = 52,

i = 141 Q1 = 2227 + 250/4 - 55 x 141

52 = Rs. 2247.33

Similarly for Q2 ,

L = 2368,C.f. = 107,F = 28,

i = 141Q2 = 2368 + 2(250/4) - 107 x 141

28

= Rs. 2458.64

Similarly for Q3,

L = 2650,C.f. = 182,F = 30,

i = 141

Q3 = 2650 + 3(250/4) - 182 x 141

30 = Rs. 2675.84RANGERange = L S

Here,

L = 3213.3, S = 1945.35

Range = 3213.3 1945.35

= Rs. 1267.95

STATISTICAL ANALYSISStock PricesFrequencyMid Point (x)d = (x - 2579.5)/141fdfd2

1945-2086252015.5-4-100400

2086-2227302156.5-3-90270

2227-2368522297.5-2-104208

2368-2509282438.5-1-2828

2509-2650472579.5000

2650-2791302720.513030

2791-2932272861.5254108

2932-307373002.532163

3073-321443143.541664

Total250-2011171

STANDARD DEVIATIONS. D. = fd2 - (fd) 2 x i

N (N) 2Here,fd = -201,fd2 = 1171,N = 250,i = 141

S.D. = 1171 - (-201) 2 x 141

250 (250) 2S.D. = Rs. 283.32Similarly,For BSE SENSEX

S.D. = 2071.37VARIANCE

Variance = (S.D.) 2

= (283.32) 2

= 80270.22COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

C.V. = S.D. x 100

A.M.C.V.= 283.23 x 100

2466.136

= 11.48 %Similarly,

For BSE SENSEX

C.V.= 12.24 %SKEWNESS

SKp = 3(Mean Median)

S.D. = 3(2466.136 2458.64)

283.23

= 0.079

Similarly,

For BSE SENSEX

SKp = - 0.04

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

r = N dX dy dX * dy NdX2 (dX)2 Ndy2 (dy)2

Thus,

r = 0.93REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS

Here, x refers to RIL

y refers to BSE SENSEXbxy = r x x

y

= 0.93 x 283.32

2071.37

= 0.127

byx = r x y

x = 0.93 x 2071.37

283.32

= 6.799

REGRESSION EQUATIONS

X on Y

(x x ) = bxy (y y ) (x 2466.13) = 0.127 (y 16929.61)x = 0.127y + 316.07Y on X

(y y )= byx (x x ) (y 16929.61) = 6.799 (x -2466.136)Y = 6.799x + 162.36INTERPRETATION

Arithmetic Mean (Rs. 2466.136) indicates the average closing price and gives us the single value that represents the entire data.

Median (Rs. 2458.64) indicates that 50% values lie below Rs. 2458.64 and the rest 50% lie above it. Since, the Median & Arithmetic Mean are almost the same, it can be concluded that that data is almost symmetrically distributed.

Mode (Rs. 2294.43) indicates that in the past one year the stock price of RIL has been mostly close to 2294.53. Hence, one could expect the RIL price to stabilize at Modal Value in the future. The Lower Quartile (Rs. 2247.33) indicates 25% observations lie below it and 75%above it. The Upper Quartile (Rs. 2675.84) indicates 75% observations lie below it and 25% above it. The Standard Deviation (Rs. 283.32) which is relatively high indicates that there was a greater magnitude of the deviations from the Arithmetic Mean. As also, maximum observations lie between the range, Rs. 2175.32 Rs. 2741.96

Skewness (0.079) indicates that the data is more or less symmetrical or evenly distributed. The positive skew indicates that the tail on the right side is marginally longer, and only a few extra values lie to the left side of the mean. Coefficient of Correlation has been used to analyze the relation between RILs Stock Price & BSE SENSEX movement. Since, r = 0.93, there is a high degree of positive correlation between the two variables, i.e., as the value of RIL Stock goes up, the BSE SENSEX also moves up. Coefficient of Variation has been used to find which of the two variables is less volatile or more consistent. Since, in the past one year RIL was having lower coefficient of variation (11.48) than BSE SENSEX (12.24), hence stock price of RIL can be considered less volatile than SENSEX. Regression coefficients (bxy= 0.127 & byx= 6.799) help us measure the amount of change in RIL Stock Price & BSE SENSEX and vice versa , respectively. Regression Equations of X on Y (x = 0.127y + 316.07) & Y on X (Y = 6.799x + 162.36) help to estimate the value of RIL Stock Price, when BSE SENSEX is given and vice versa, respectively.

The Probability of Profit on Daily Returns (0.51) states that, out of 100 times a person invests in RIL Stock for a day, 51 times he will make profit on the investment, and a loss on the other 49 occasions. The Probability of SENSEX Rising (0.49) indicates that, out of 100 days the SENSEX operates, it rises on 49 occasions and falls on other occasions, i.e., 59.

CONCLUSIONFor a period of these 12 months, 30 day moving average is taken as measure of moving average to get an idea of movement of share price of RIL.

During the initial months RIL was trading above the 30 DMA, hence was expected to come down. Hence during the month of Feb08, the RIL moved below its 30 DMA, but later on outperformed its 30 DMA during recovery period in Apr08. But since then, the market has been consistently falling, showing signs of weakening. Only for a short period in August the RIL performed above its 30 DMA, but again RIL is currently trading below its 30 DMA. Hence, looking at the past trend and the market condition, the RIL is not likely to outperform its 30 DMA. Thus, it has fuelled fears of recession hitting the Indian Markets.The recommendation for the investors would be to hold the stock as the stock has been above its 30 DMA for more than once since Jan08 when markets have entered bearish phase. Hence, stock represents ability to outperform the market in coming future only if it doesnt become a victim of short selling.

BIBLIOGRAPHY www.forbes.com www.ibtimes.com www.wikipedia.com www.toi.com www.ril.com Manan Shahs various articles for different publication like Mint, Financial Express and Indian Express

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 28