Statistical and Forecasting Committee LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2007 AND 2008
23
Statistical and Forecasting Committee LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2007 AND 2008 Paul White Head of Forecasting and Statistics, ILZSG 4 October 2007, Lisbon
description
Statistical and Forecasting Committee LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2007 AND 2008. Paul White Head of Forecasting and Statistics, ILZSG 4 October 2007, Lisbon. Further Zinc Industry Consolidation in 2007. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Statistical and Forecasting Committee LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2007 AND 2008
Statistical and Forecasting Committee
LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOKFOR 2007 AND 2008
Paul WhiteHead of Forecasting and Statistics, ILZSG
4 October 2007, Lisbon
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
2
Further Zinc Industry Consolidation in 2007
• Umicore and Zinifex zinc
smelting and alloying
businesses merged to form
world’s largest producer of zinc
metal, Nyrstar
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
3
Lead Stocks and Prices
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
'000 tonnes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500US$ per tonne
Stocks LME Cash Settlement Price
September 2007
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
4
World Lead Metal Usage
Annual Change:
• 2007+4.1%
• 2008+4.1%
2008 Distribution
USA19%
Korea Rep.4%
Italy3%
China32%
Others38%
Germany4%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
5
Chinese Lead Demand Growth
• Increases in vehicle production and population
• Electric bicycles
• Rising demand for back-up power
• Battery exports
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
China
'000 tonnes
Lead Demand Growth - China vs Rest of the World 2002-2008f
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
World excluding China
'000 tonnes
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
7
World Lead Mine Output
Annual Change:
• 2007+5.5%
• 2008+10.4%
2008 Distribution
Peru8%
USA11%
China38%
Others26%
Australia17%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
8
World Lead Mine Output
• Opening of San Cristobal, Bolivia
• Increases in China, Macedonia, Portugal, Russia, Sweden
• Australian output affected by Magellan closure
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
9
World Lead Metal Output
Annual Change:
• 2007+3.9%
• 2008+5.4%
2008 Distribution
USA15%Japan
3%
Others38%
China36%
UK4%
Germany4%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
10
World Lead Metal Output
• New plants in Henan and Inner Mongolia, China
• Higher production in Canada, Russia, U.K. and U.S.
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
11
Chinese Lead Trade
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008f
Concentrates Metal
IMPORTS
EXPORTS
'000 tonnes
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
12
Lead Metal World Balance
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
'000 tonnes
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
13
Zinc Stocks and Prices
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
'000 tonnes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000US$ per tonne
Stocks LME Cash Settlement Price
September 2007
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
14
World Zinc Metal Usage
Annual Change:
• 2007+3.0 %
• 2008+5.1 %
2008 DistributionKorea Rep.5% USA
9%
Others43%
China33%
Japan5%Germany
5%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
15
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
1600
2100
2600
3100
3600'000 tonnes
China
Zinc Demand Growth - China vs Rest of the World 2002-2008f
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000'000 tonnes
World excluding China
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
16
China’s Infrastructure Requirements
USAUSA CHINACHINAPer million peoplePer million people
Motorways (km)Motorways (km) 21,86221,862 1,0801,080Roads (km)Roads (km) 14,15714,157 242242Railways (km)Railways (km) 780780 5454
Per 000 kmPer 000 km22
Motorways (km)Motorways (km) 699699 150150Roads (km)Roads (km) 453453 3434Railways (km)Railways (km) 2525 88
Source: China Metals
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
17
World Zinc Mine Output
Annual Change:
• 2007+7.4%
• 2008+9. 5%
2008 Distribution
Canada7%
USA7%
Peru12%
China28%
Others34%
Australia12%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
18
World Zinc Mine Output
• San Cristobal in Bolivia is 8th largest zinc mine in world
• Number of new operations in Australia and Canada in 2007 and 2008
• Higher output at Antamina, Peru
• Increases in China, Brazil, India, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Mexico, Portugal, U.S. and others
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
19
World Zinc Metal Output
Annual Change:
• 2007+5.9%
• 2008+7.8%
2008 Distribution
Spain4%
India5%
Japan5%
Korea Rep.6% Canada
7%
Others39%
China34%
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
20
World Zinc Metal Output
• 2nd 170mt plant to open at Chanderiya, India
• Higher European output• Modified Big River Zinc in U.S. to
reopen in 2008• Increases in Australia, Kazakhstan,
Korea, Mexico and Thailand
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
21
Chinese Zinc Trade
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008f
Concentrates Metal
IMPORTS
EXPORTS
'000 tonnes
www.ilzsg.org International Lead and Zinc Study Group
22
Zinc Metal World Balance
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f
'000 tonnes
Statistical and Forecasting Committee
LEAD AND ZINC MARKET OUTLOOKFOR 2007 AND 2008
Paul WhiteHead of Forecasting and Statistics, ILZSG
4 October 2007, Lisbon
