State of Wind Energy in the United States Suzanne Tegen, Ph.D. June 9, 2017 Portland, Maine

2

National Renewable Energy Lab Portfolio

3

The U.S. Onshore and Offshore Wind Energy Resource

4

Wind Energy Installed Capacity in the United States

Source: American Wind Energy Association: http://www.awea.org/Resources/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=5059&navItemNumber=742

Texas Installed the Most Wind Capacity in 2015; 12 States ≥ 10% Wind Energy

• Texas had almost 3 times as much wind capacity as the next-highest state

• 24 states had > 500 MW of capacity at end of 2015 (17 > 1 GW, 11 > 2 GW)

• IA = 31% of total in-state generation from wind; SD = 26%, KS = 24%; 12 states ≥ 10%)

Installed Capacity (MW) Percentage of In-State Generation

Annual (2015) Cumulative (end of 2015) Actual (2015)* Texas 3,615 Texas 17,711 Iowa 31.3% Oklahoma 1,402 Iowa 6,209 South Dakota 25.5% Kansas 799 California 5,662 Kansas 23.9% Iowa 524 Oklahoma 5,184 Oklahoma 18.4% Colorado 399 Illinois 3,842 North Dakota 17.7% Illinois 274 Kansas 3,764 Minnesota 17.0% New Mexico 268 Minnesota 3,235 Idaho 16.2% North Dakota 258 Oregon 3,153 Vermont 15.4% Minnesota 200 Washington 3,075 Colorado 14.2% California 194 Colorado 2,965 Oregon 11.3% South Dakota 175 North Dakota 2,143 Maine 10.5% Maine 173 Indiana 1,895 Texas 10.0% Indiana 150 New York 1,749 Nebraska 8.0% Nebraska 80 Michigan 1,531 Wyoming 7.7% Arizona 30 Wyoming 1,410 Montana 6.6% Maryland 30 Pennsylvania 1,340 Washington 6.5% New Hampshire 14 New Mexico 1,080 New Mexico 6.3% Ohio 8 South Dakota 977 California 6.2% Connecticut 5 Idaho 973 Hawaii 6.1% New York 1 Nebraska 890 Illinois 5.5% Rest of U.S. 0 Rest of U.S. 5,203 Rest of U.S. 1.0% TOTAL 8,598 TOTAL 73,992 TOTAL 4.7%

* Based on 2015 wind and total generation by state from EIA’s Electric Power Monthly.

Source: Wiser and Bolinger Wind Technologies Market Report 2016 | http://energy.gov/eere/wind

6

Wind Energy-Related Policy: the Production Tax Credit (PTC)

PTC (Sec. 301): wind projects that started construction in 2015 and 2016 receive a full value PTC of 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. For projects that begin construction in 2017, the credit is at 80% of full value; in 2018, 60% PTC; and in 2019, 40% PTC. After that, the PTC is phased out.

Union of Concerned Scientists ucsusa.org

7

Renewable Energy Policy: Renewable Portfolio Standards

8

Turbines Are Getting Larger

Source: Wiser, Bolinger, Seel. 2017. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Wind Cost and Performance Improvements: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Going, and Why Does it Matter?

9

Wind Turbines Continue to Increase in Size

Source: Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2017

10

Capacity Factors Are Increasing Over Time

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1998-9923

894

2000-0126

1,750

2002-0334

1,979

2004-0527

3,634

200620

1,738

200737

5,282

200879

8,498

200996

9,578

201047

4,632

201169

5,904

2012121

13,731

20138

969

201435

4,964

201553

8,063

Weighted Average (by project vintage) Individual Project (by project vintage)

2016

Cap

acity

Fac

tor (

by p

roje

ct v

inta

ge)

Sample includes 675 projects totaling 71.6 GW

Vintage:# projects:

# MW:

Source: Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2017

11

Cost Reductions in Wind Energy Projects Over Time

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Inst

alle

d Pr

ojec

t Cos

t (20

16 $

/kW

)

Commercial Operation Date

Individual Project Cost (840 projects totaling 67,093 MW) Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost EIA Capacity-Weighted Average (2013-2015 only)

2016 average: $1,580/kW; down from $2,360/kW in 2010

Source: Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2017

12

Wind Prices Remain Very Low, Especially in Interior (w/ PTC)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120Ja

n-96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

PPA Execution Date

Interior (25,382 MW, 244 contracts) West (7,421 MW, 77 contracts) Great Lakes (4,104 MW, 51 contracts) Northeast (1,436 MW, 29 contracts) Southeast (476 MW, 7 contracts)

Leve

lized

PPA

Pri

ce (2

016

$/M

Wh)

25 MW

150 MW

50 MW

200 MW

Levelized 20-year EIA gas price projections (converted at 7.5 MMBtu/MWh)

2016 average: $21/MWh

Source: Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2017

13

Costs of Wind Energy Compared to Natural Gas

Source: Wiser and Bolinger, Wind Technologies Market Report 2016 | http://energy.gov/eere/wind

14

Wind Turbine Domestic Content

Source: Wiser and Bolinger, Wind Technologies Market Report 2016 | http://energy.gov/eere/wind

15

In 2016, Manufacturing Supply Chain Continued to Adjust to Swings in Domestic Demand

Note: Map not intended to be exhaustive

• Upswing in near- to medium-term expected growth, but strong competitive pressures and possible reduced demand over time as the PTC is phased down.

• 3 domestic manufacturing facility closures in 2015; 1 new opening.

• Many manufacturers remain: over last decade, manufacturers have localized and expanded U.S. presence; “Big 3” OEMs all have at least one facility.

• Wind-related jobs increased from 73,000 in 2014 to 88,000 in 2015.

Source: Wiser and Bolinger, Wind Technologies Market Report 2016 | http://energy.gov/eere/wind

The U.S. Onshore and Offshore Wind Energy Resource

Offshore Wind

17

Offshore Wind - Global

Global offshore wind project pipeline through 2020 (by country)

Preliminary data – Musial et al., forthcoming.

18

Offshore Wind Projects in the United States

19

Offshore Wind - Technical Energy Potential by State

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Mas

sach

uset

tsFl

orid

aTe

xas

Loui

sian

aN

orth

Car

olin

aSo

uth

Caro

lina

Mai

neCa

lifor

nia

New

Yor

kN

ew Je

rsey

Ore

gon

Mic

higa

nVi

rgin

iaGe

orgi

aW

ashi

ngto

nH

awai

iM

aryl

and

Ohi

oRh

ode

Isla

ndAl

abam

aW

isco

nsin

Dela

war

eIll

inoi

sPe

nnsy

lvan

iaM

issi

ssip

piCo

nnec

ticut

New

…In

dian

aM

inne

sota

Net

Tech

nica

l Ene

rgy

Pote

ntia

l (T

Wh/

year

)

Series2

Series1

Water Depth > 60 m

Water Depth < 60 m

Musial, W. et al. 2016 Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for the United States. NREL/TP-5000-66599. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66599.pdf

20

Offshore Wind - Technical Energy Potential by State

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Mas

sach

uset

tsFl

orid

aTe

xas

Loui

sian

aN

orth

Car

olin

aSo

uth

Caro

lina

Mai

neCa

lifor

nia

New

Yor

kN

ew Je

rsey

Ore

gon

Mic

higa

nVi

rgin

iaGe

orgi

aW

ashi

ngto

nH

awai

iM

aryl

and

Ohi

oRh

ode

Isla

ndAl

abam

aW

isco

nsin

Dela

war

eIll

inoi

sPe

nnsy

lvan

iaM

issi

ssip

piCo

nnec

ticut

New

…In

dian

aM

inne

sota

Net

Tech

nica

l Ene

rgy

Pote

ntia

l (T

Wh/

year

)

Series2

Series1

Water Depth > 60 m

Water Depth < 60 m

Musial, W. et al. 2016 Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for the United States. NREL/TP-5000-66599. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66599.pdf

21

• August 2016. Massachusetts passed An Act Related to Energy Diversity (H4568) that requires state electricity providers to procure 1,600 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2027.

• January 2017: New York’s Governor Cuomo publically committed the state to procuring 2,400 MW of offshore capacity by 2030 in his annual State of the State address.

• May 2017: Maryland’s Public Service Commission awarded Offshore Renewable Energy Credits to U.S. Wind’s 248-MW project and Deepwater Wind’s 120-MW Skipjack project for 20 years. As a precondition for receiving the credits, each developer has to invest in port infrastructure upgrades, local manufacturing, and workforce development.

• Senators Edward Markey, Sheldon Whitehouse, Jeff Merkley, Elizabeth Warren, Jack Reed, Corey Booker, and Sheldon Brown in conjunction with Congressman Jim Langevin recently introduced S.1102, The Offshore Wind Incentives for New Development (Offshore WIND) Act, to extend the Investment Tax Credit for offshore wind through 2025.

Policies and Commitments Specific to U.S. Offshore Wind

Wind Energy Analysis and Modeling

23

DOE Wind Vision Modeled Wind to 2050 Offshore Deployment - 2050

Source: The Wind Vision http://energy.gov/eere/wind/downloads/wind-vision-new-era-wind-power-united-states

Stars represent approximations for where we are in 2017.

24

• Construction workers • Management • Administrative support • Cement truck drivers • Road crews • Maintenance workers • Legal and siting

Project Development & On-site Labor Impacts

Local Revenue, Turbine, & Supply Chain Impacts Induced Impacts

• Blades, towers, gearboxes Jobs and earnings that result from the spending supported by the project, including benefits to grocery store clerks, retail salespeople, and child-care providers

• Boom truck & management, gas and gas station workers; • Supporting businesses, such as bankers financing the construction, contractor, manufacturers, and equipment suppliers; • Utilities;

Jobs and Economic Impacts from the JEDI Model

Construction Phase = 1-2 years Operational Phase = 20+ years

JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e

• Hardware store purchases and workers, spare parts and their suppliers

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Economic Ripple Effect from Wind Energy

25

Trade workers 15%

Transportation/ logistics

11% Wind

Technicians 8%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6%

5%

3% 3%

2%

1% 1%

Subset of the Wind Energy Workforce We Captured (250 firms in 2016) Engineers

Trade workers (electricians, welders, etc.)

Transportation/logistics workers

Wind technicians

Construction laborers (other than skilled tradeworkers)Accountants/bookkeepers/finance

Sales/marketing

Admin/clerical

Product designers & design engineers

Attorneys

Assembly workers

Applied/field scientists (biologist, environmental,archaeologist, meteorologist, other)Professors/teachers

Programmers and computer scientists

Professional trainers/educators

Communications/PR

Engineers 18%

U.S. Wind Energy Workforce by Occupation

Initial Workforce Data – Report Forthcoming 2017

Source: Tegen 2017. NREL PR-5000-68542

26

Occupations with a Higher Representation of Select Groups

Women Minorities

(Ethnic/Racial) U.S. Veterans Average representation of this group within all occupations

28% 25% 11%

• Admin/clerical 83% • Accountants/

bookkeepers/finance 63% • Communications/PR 53% • Government/regulatory

50% • Applied/field scientists

45% • Engineer – civil 41% • Economists and policy

experts 33%

• Construction laborers

73% • Wind technicians 53% • Civil engineers 45% • Transportation/logistics

workers 45% • Assembly workers 38% • Resource assessors/

surveyors 37%

• Construction laborers

44% • Wind technicians 37%

Note: There is overlap in these groups. 51% of Americans are women; 38% are minorities; 7.5% are veterans. Initial Workforce Data – Report Forthcoming 2017

27

Do They Need Wind-Specific Education and Training? Overall, wind energy firms are more likely to want their employees to have education and/or professional certification related to their occupation (e.g., certified public accountants). However, for: • Professors, • Teachers, • Product designers, • Design engineers, and • Wind technicians, wind energy-specific professional certification is more important.

Initial Workforce Data – Report Forthcoming 2017

28

Map from WX If your institution is not on the map, please contact me: Suzanne.Tegen@nrel.gov

Wind Energy Education and Training Programs Go to WINDExchange in your browser. Click on Education & Training Programs.

Initial Workforce Data – Report Forthcoming 2017

29

Tools and Resources: • Wind Career Map • Jobs and Economic Development Impacts

(JEDI) Models www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi • WINDExchange bi-weekly newsletter to

~16,000 subscribers

Initiatives: • Wind for Schools • Collegiate Wind Competition • North American Wind Energy Academy Partners: universities, community colleges, NGOs WRISE – Women in Renewable Industries and Sustainable Energy, Regional Resource Centers, AWEA Workforce Committee and many more. Engagement with academia, communities, and industry through research, webinars, trainings, symposia.

DOE/NREL Work to Help Inspire the Future Workforce

Initial Workforce Data – Report Forthcoming 2017

Thank you.

Subscribe to our WINDExchange Newsletter for news and events.

Suzanne Tegen Suzanne.Tegen@nrel.gov

303-384-6939

31

Reference Documents

http://energy.gov/eere/wind/downloads/wind-vision-new-era-wind-power-united-

states

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/09/f33/

National-Offshore-Wind-Strategy-report-09082016.pdf

Full Report: https://emp.lbl.gov/iea-wind-

expert-survey

Radar impacts exist, but federal agency siting requirements address concerns. A variety of mitigation strategies have been developed to reduce impacts on radar. These include infill radars to restore a loss in radar coverage, replacement radars, and upgrading identified radar technology.* In addition, rigorous review processes and federal consultations address this issue.** *Karlson et al. Sandia National Laboratory. (September 2014). IFT&E Industry Report Wind Turbine-Radar Interference Test Summary. ** Federal Aviation Administration. DoD Preliminary Screening Tool.

Photo from NOAA