State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over...
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Transcript of State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over...
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State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over time?
Anna M. MichalakWith contributions from: Kevin Bowman, Ken Davis, Yuanyuan Fang, Debbie Huntzinger, Tony King, Andrew Richardson, Kevin Schaefer, Christopher Schwalm
Source: Griffith et al. (2013)
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NOT MUCHAnna M. Michalak
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North American Carbon Sources and Sinks: Magnitude, Attribution and Uncertainty
Anthony KingDaniel Hayes Deborah HuntzingerTristram WestWilfred Post
4th NACP All Investigators MeetingFebruary 4, 2013
Albuquerque, New Mexico
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Terrestrial sink (2000-2005): meta-synthesis of NACP regional interim synthesis
Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
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NACP and RECCAP comparison
For reference:SOCCR (2007) estimate was -500 ± 250 Tg C yr-1
NCA (King et al 2012) synthesis estimate was -634 ± 165 Tg C yr-1
Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
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Inter-method comparison Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
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The trouble with …
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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The trouble with …
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Net sink is small residual of photosynthesis and respiration
Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012)
e.g. Over NA:GPP: 12.2 to 32.9 PgC yr-1
NEP: -0.7 to 2.2 PgC yr-1
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Net annual sink is small residual of large seasonal cycle
Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012)
e.g. Over NA:Monthly: up to 0.8 PgC mt-1
Annual: up to 2.2 PgC yr-1 ~ 0.2 PgC
mt-1
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Net biospheric sink is small residual of total flux and fossil fuel emissions
King et al. (SOCCR report, 2007)
e.g. Over NA:FF: 1.85 PgC yr-1 Bio: ~ 0.5 PgC yr-1
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The trouble with …
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Global constraint and local constraint, but…
Requires: Downscaling or upscaling in space and time
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Annual mean prior flux (gC/m2/day)
Annual mean posterior flux (gC/m2/day) Post-prior (gC/m2/day)
Spatial attribution of CO2
Slide modified from: Kevin Bowman (JPL)
PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS
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RECCAP-TransCom3 results
Updated inversions
Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
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Upscaling of eddy covariance data
Figures from: Martin Jung (MPI-BGC)
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The trouble with …
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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e.g. 0.5ppm uncertainty on incoming [CO2]
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Gourdji et al. (BG 2012)
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The trouble with …
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Paths forward…
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Combine multiple estimates…
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
e.g. Averaging, binning, prescribing simulation protocol, etc.
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Inter-method comparison Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
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Seasonal spatial patternsGourdji et al. (BG 2012); Yadav and Michalak (GMD, in press)
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RECCAP-TRENDY Terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) results for North America
Slide from: Tony King (ORNL)
UNPUBLISHED RECCAP DATA REMOVED FROM PRESENTATION HERE
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Paths forward…
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Tackle bigger components…
Big signals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
e.g. Component fluxes, phenology, seasons, etc.
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Gross Primary Productivity Net Ecosystem Productivity
Huntzinger et al. (Ecol. Model. 2012)
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NACP Regional Interim Synthesis Activity
Long-Term Mean (2000-2005) Summer (June, July, August) Net Ecosystem Productivity
Huntzinger et al. (2012) Ecological Modeling
Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)
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Combining multiple estimates of big components
Big signals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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NACP Regional Interim
Synthesis vs. MsTMIP
Mean GPP for North America (2000-2005)
5 models (CLM, DLEM, LPJ, ORCHIDEE, VEGAS)
RangeInterquartile rangeMedian
Does strict protocol help to isolate sources if different in model output?
Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)
PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS
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MsTMIP modelsSteady-state results
10 models
• GPP varies by factor of 2 in tropics
• Soil carbon pool size in NHL ranges from 5 – 60 kg C m-2
• Total living biomass varies by factor of 3.5 in tropics
RangeInterquartile rangeMedian
Slide from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)
PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS
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Compare simulated GPP to other GPP products:
MODIS-GPP (Zhao and Running, 2010)MPI-BGC (Jung et al., 2011, Beer et al., 2010)
Slide modified from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)
PRELIMINARY UNPUBLISHED RESULTS
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Group model estimates of GPP based on model’s treatment of photosynthesis, disturbance and other factors.
The entire modeling framework influences a model’s results
Huntzinger et al. (2012) Ecological Modeling
Binning / grouping of modelsSlide modified from: Debbie Huntzinger (NAU)
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Paths forward…
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Boundary conditions
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Tackle different scales…
“Small” residuals
Non-continentalscales
Boundary conditions
e.g. Eddy covariance towers, regional intensives, etc.
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Regional measurement campaigns
Midcontinent intensive, 2007-2009
INFLUX, 2010-201?
Gulf coast intensive, 2013-201?
N. American tower CO2 network circa 2008Slide from: Ken Davis (Penn State)
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Schuh et al, in press, GCB
Atmospheric inversions and agricultural inventory agree!
Inversions and inventory have similar uncertainty bounds!
Slide from: Ken Davis (Penn State)
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Tackle different scales for big components
Bigsignals
Non-continentalscales
Boundary conditions
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Phenology (Richardson et al.)
• Early/late uptake means positive GPP bias• Models need better phenology
Slide from: Kevin Schaefer (NSIDC)
NACP Site Synthesis
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GPP Biases (Schaefer et al., 2012)G
PP B
ias
(mm
ol m
-2 s
-1)
Fall too lateSpring too early
Need Low Temperature
Shutoff
Need Improved LUE/Vcmax
Slide from: Kevin Schaefer (NSIDC)
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Tackle specific features…
“Small” residuals
“Intermediate”scales
Patterns
e.g. Patterns, trends, anomalies, sensitivities…
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Slide from: Yuanyuan Fang (Carnegie Inst. Sci.)
6
1
2
34
5
7
7654321
7654321
Fine scale inversion for selecting TBMs at biome scale from among NACP RIS models with sub-diurnal variability
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Tackle features of big components
Bigsignals
“Intermediate”scales
Patterns
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Anomaly = Drought – Baseline Mean
Reduced Carbon Uptake and Evaporation, Increased Heating
Carbon uptake decreased by 37% and 160% in forests and grasslandsincreased in woody savannas… respiration slowed more than productivity
Evaporation decreased by 25%, 5%, and 16% for ENF, GRA, and WSA temperatures increased by ~0.4 °C
Slide from: Christopher Schwalm
“Carbon and Water Impacts of the Turn of the Century Drought in Western
North America 2000-2004”
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*Anomaly = Drought Mean – Baseline Mean
Reduction in Carbon Uptake Offset 45% of Normal Sink
Term[Tg C y-1]
Source Drought Anomaly*
Baseline Flux
Percent Reduction
GPP MODIS -234 2424 10%
GPP Upscaled FLUXNET
-182 2148 8%
NEP Inversions -30-83
177188
17%44%
NEP Flux Tower Network
-298 623 48%
Slide from: Christopher Schwalm
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Paths forward….
Bigsignals
Non-continentalscales
Patterns
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Address first and look for convergence
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Acknowledgments: Cited intercomparison, synthesis, and collaborative observational efforts• NOAA ESRL Cooperative Air Sampling Network• FLUXNET / AmeriFlux• TransCom3• SOCCR• MCI• NACP Site Synthesis• NACP RCIS• TRENDY• RECCAP• NASA Carbon Monitoring System• National Climate Assessment• MsTMIP