Stanley Wing-fai NG, CEO, Registered Professional Planner (Hong Kong), MRTPI(UK), MHKIP,MGISA(HK),...
34
Stanley Wing-fai NG, CEO, Registered Professional Planner (Hong Kong), MRTPI(UK), MHKIP,MGISA(HK), MSc(HKU). BSc.(NTU) April, 2006 Cities Competitiveness & Risk Ranking (A Preliminary Study on Correlation between Expert Ranking and Demographic Indicators)
-
Upload
brett-holmes -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Stanley Wing-fai NG, CEO, Registered Professional Planner (Hong Kong), MRTPI(UK), MHKIP,MGISA(HK),...
Stanley Wing-fai NG, CEO, Registered Professional Planner (Hong Kong),
MRTPI(UK), MHKIP,MGISA(HK), MSc(HKU). BSc.(NTU)
April, 2006
Cities Competitiveness & Risk Ranking(A Preliminary Study on Correlation between Expert Ranking and Demographic Indicators)
Cities/ Counties Based Investment Decisions
Statistics and Census • Demographic
• Economic Indicators• Personnel Indicators
• 2300+ Cities/ Counties
Input 2 DatabaseInput 1Expert Ranking System• Competitiveness• Investment Index• Empirical• 50-108 cities/ ind. zones
Correlation AnalysisGeneral Rules
Branch/ Factory/ OutletBranch/ Factory/ OutletDecisionDecision
Market,Resources Local Gov Sch.
Relations Other Factors
Input 1: Expert Ranking SystemCities’ Competitiveness & Risks
• Several Taiwan scholars’ Studies for Trade Associations “Analysis on Competitiveness and Risks for China Cities”
• 2001-2004 published• Survey and Expert Ranking System
– Questionnaire Survey– Focus Group– Case Studies, Factory Visits
• Publication Ref: – “ 兩力兩度見商機 – 2004 中國大陸地區投資環境與風險調查”
• Author: Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers’ Association 台灣區電機電子工業同業公會 ,• ISBN:986-7877-12-8, 2004. 主任委員：焦佑君，主持：呂鴻德，協同主持：黃銘章，顧問：高孔廉
– 生產力中心 China Productivity Center (Taiwan),– “ 進軍中國大陸市場機遇與挑戰”，外貿協會 Taiwan External Trade Development Council
Index Derived
• Ranking in Competitiveness – 108 cities – Major Cities and Counties include 108 major cities, industrial zones, Special Economic Region– Competitive power is calculated by: infrastructure, finance status, investment environment, economic status and employment.
• Ranking in Overall Investment Index – 41 cities– Investment Risks
• Local Governance Risks, Environmental Risks, Social Risks etc
– Investment Index is calculated by the • Competitive Power, • Investment environment, • Investment risk of a city.
Expert Ranking:-
• Empirical data from case studies– Case studies, interview, survey – In-depth case studies of Taiwanese factories/ investors – 108 cities/ counties/ industrial zones ranked depends on cases and data readiness
• Not applicable to cities/ counties not ranked– about 100 cities out of 2300+ cities/ counties
• General limitation of expert ranking system– personal factors– different scale/ parameters
Input 2: Census & Statistics DataDemographics and Economy
• Census & Statistics Data in China – 2300+ Cities• Data Availabilities
– USA/ UK /HK system vs. China system– national data vs. local data– Data reliabilities, personnel vs. government corporate
• Data Release Time Frame– 2005, national and provincial data– 2004, cities/ counties and districts inside cities– 2003, cities/ counties and districts rectified in 2005
Demographics and Statistics for 2300+ CitiesDemographics and Statistics for 2300+ Cities
Jointly developed by ACMR and MapAsiaJointly developed by ACMR and MapAsia
CHINA infoMapCHINA infoMap
ExclusiveExclusive LicenseLicense
Sample of Bar Chart
Thematic Map – Pie Chart
Compare Expert Ranking with Statistics
• Regression Analysis• ANOVA Analysis (Analysis of
Variance)• Map Overlay Analysis• Parameters
– Competitiveness and Investment Index– Variables in wages, population, GDP,
Education Attainment, Industrial Output
Basic Information
• China Census data 2003 was used.
(2003 data rectified in 2005)
• Factors for the calculation: Wages, GDP, Population, Industry and Education
• “Factors” against Competitive Power
• “Factors” against Investment Index
Competitive Power
• Calculated by: infrastructure, financial status, investment environment, economic status and employment of a City.
• Parameters against Competitive Power– Wages- total wages of the city, Million RMB– GDP – Million RMB– Population – Million– Education – High school student, Middle school
student in million– Industry Output Million
• 108 Cities included in the Expert Ranking System
Competitive Power of Major Cities(Expert Ranking)
Wages of China Major Cities
Population of China Major Cities
GDP of China Major Cities
Industrial Output of China Major Cities
Education Attainment
Regression of Wages
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
0.00 1000000
0000.00
2000000
0000.00
3000000
0000.00
4000000
0000.00
5000000
0000.00
6000000
0000.00
7000000
0000.00
8000000
0000.00Wages
Com
petit
ive Po
wer
Competitive Power
Calculated Competitive Power
Wages against Competitive Power
Population against Competitive Power
Regression of Population
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
0.00 50000000
0.00
10000000
00.00
15000000
00.00
20000000
00.00
25000000
00.00
30000000
00.00
35000000
00.00Population
Com
petit
ive Po
wer
Competitive Power
Calculated Competitive Power
GDP against Competitive Power
Regression of GDP
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
0.00 10000000.
00
20000000.
00
30000000.
00
40000000.
00
50000000.
00
60000000.
00
70000000.
00GDP
Com
petit
ive
Power
Competitive Power
Calculated Competitive Power
Education Attainment against Competitive Power
Regression of High School
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
0.00 100000.00 200000.00 300000.00 400000.00 500000.00 600000.00High School
Com
petit
ive
Pow
er
Competitive Power
Calculated Competitive Power
Industrial Output against Competitive Power
Regression of Secondary Industrial Production
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
0.00 5000000.
00
1000000
0.00
1500000
0.00
2000000
0.00
2500000
0.00
3000000
0.00
3500000
0.00
4000000
0.00
4500000
0.00
Industrial Production
Com
petit
ive
Power
Competitive Power
Calculated Competitive Power
Investment Index
• Calculated by the competitive power, investment environment and investment risk
• Parameters in Wages, population, GDP, Education and Industrial Output against Investment Index
• 41 Cities included in the Expert Ranking System
Investment Index of China Major Cities(Expert Ranking)
Wages against Investment Index
Regression of WAGES
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
0.00 10000.00 20000.00 30000.00 40000.00 50000.00 60000.00 70000.00 80000.00WAGES
Inde
x
Index
Calculated Investment Index
GDP against Investment Index
Regression of GPD
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
0.00 10000000.00 20000000.00 30000000.00 40000000.00 50000000.00 60000000.00 70000000.00GPD
Inde
x
Index
Calculated Investment Index
Population against Investment Index
Regression of POPULATION
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00
POPULATION
Inde
x
Index
Calculated Investment Index
Education against Investment Index
Regression of Education
0.0010.00
20.0030.0040.0050.00
60.0070.0080.00
90.00100.00
0.00 100000.00 200000.00 300000.00 400000.00 500000.00 600000.00Education
Inde
x
Index
Calculated Investment Index
Industrial Output against Investment Index
Regression of Industry
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.0060.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
0.00 500000
0.00
100000
00.00
150000
00.00
200000
00.00
250000
00.00
300000
00.00
350000
00.00
400000
00.00
450000
00.00
Industry
Inde
x
Index
Calculated Investment Index
1. 1. Expert Ranking of Competitiveness Expert Ranking of Competitiveness positive correlate with some major positive correlate with some major demographic indicators, i.e. GDP, per capital demographic indicators, i.e. GDP, per capital GDP, output of secondary industries, wages GDP, output of secondary industries, wages
2.2. Correlation of Experts’ Investment Correlation of Experts’ Investment Index (include Risks Index) not so Index (include Risks Index) not so significant. significant.
Preliminary Findings:-Preliminary Findings:-
• GDP, per capita GDP, Industrial Output and Wages having higher correlation with Competitive Power among other factors
• Population and Education Attainment having lower correlation with Competitive Power among the factors.
• For the Investment Index, none of the factors obtain a significant correlation with investment index.
• For further analysis, time series analysis may improve the predictive model of the competitive power and Investment Index.
Thank You
Stanley Ng (CEO), [email protected]
• Team member: Stanley NG, CEO Winsome Wong, GIS Specialist Ng Wing Yiu, Data Manager
• MapAsia.com City Country Consultancy LtdHong Kong . China . Kuala Lumpur . Singapore [email protected], 852-27409680,
