Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
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A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
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A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL. Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and
Global Scales at NOAA/ESRLStan BenjaminNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnostics
Data assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus paramPBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnosticsData assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
Aerosol processes
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus param (Grell)PBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean
Chemistry
Model numericsData assimilation
Cloud processes
Data Assimilation Cycle
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RAP
Observations
Hourly cycling model
HRRR
NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
RAPID REFRESH
HIGHRESOLUTIONRAPIDREFRESH
Radar data
NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
FIM
iHYCOM
atmosphere
oceaniHYCOM – Icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model
- Matched grid design to FIM for coupled ocean- atmosphere prediction system
- Experimental testing at ESRL, Navy development
FIM – Flow-following finite volume Icosahedral Model
– “soccer-ball” grid design for uniform grid spacing
– Isentropic/sigma hybrid vertical coordinate
– New 14-day forecast twice daily– Real-time experimental at ESRL
24h forecasts vs. raobsRMS vector errorRR domain (N. America)
For the record – FIM vs. GFS using ECMWF as verification.http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/fimy/
Added 2 Nov – N. HemisphereOver the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears somewhat better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 8-9 days (max 0.006 for FIM)
Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM
Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force
Added 2 Nov – S. HemisphereOver the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears much better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 9-10 days (no improvement at all in SH for FIM)
Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM
Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force
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Full 2012 track errors – Atlantic + E.Pacific basins
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Ern
esto
Hel
ene
Isaa
c
Kirk
Lesl
ie
Mic
hael
Nad
ine
Raf
ael
San
dy
96h Atlantic track error by storm
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Ern
esto
Isaa
c
Lesl
ie
Mic
hael
Nad
ine
San
dy
• 2 US landfalling storms in Aug-Oct 2012 (Isaac, Sandy)• 41 of 54 forecasts at 120h from mid-Atlantic storms (Leslie/Michael/Nadine)
120h Atlantic track error by storm
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FIM9
Isaac forecasts from HFIP
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HFIPESRL-DA
Sandy – initial time 25 Oct 00z
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HFIPESRL-DA
Sandy – initial time 26 Oct 00z
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FIM9 – HFIP – Stream 1.5FIM9 – ESRL DA
Sandy track forecasts
Modeling and Assimilation Application / DevelopmentIn NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Carbon TrackerGHG obs/process research
GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2
PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclonesClimate diagnosticsData assimilation (Whitaker)Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall)
Aerosol obs/process researchWRF-chem applications
Cloud physics (Feingold)PBL param
Aerosol processes
NWS NWPObs impact exps
Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRRFIM/NIM glob modelsiHYCOM ocean modelWRF-chem inline chemCumulus param (Grell)PBL paramLand-surface param
Apps
Development
Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean
Chemistry
Model numericsData assimilation
Cloud processes
