STAKEHOLDER VIEWS: 5 PROPOSALS OF STUDENT VOICES AND ... · 1960 and 2010 in most countries. In...

EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1

1

STAKEHOLDER VIEWS: 5 PROPOSALS OF STUDENT VOICES AND TEACHER VOICES

FOR SCHOOLING FOR 2030

ANNEX: WHAT CHALLENGES DO DATA SUGGEST FOR SOCIETY IN 2030?

Background

1. This document contains a reference guide used by the students and their teachers of the Tohoku

School project when preparing proposals for “Schooling for 2030”, to be discussed at the student-teacher

conference that will take place at the OECD on 2 September 2014.

2. The reference guide has selected 7 themes and related OECD data as well as other sources that

can be most relevant to project the future of 2030. The guide also raises questions for discussion that aim

to stimulate the reader to reflect upon: a) what the world would look like and what issues would arise in

2030, b) what kind of skills and competencies would be needed to respond to such issues, and c) what kind

of learning models would fit the changing demands in 2030.

3. In 2030, the students in the project will be in their 30s and are expected to be in employment and

contribute to forming their society as an active citizen. Their teachers may be in their 40s-60s. Thus,

thinking about schooling for 2030 is an exercise that can frame one’s thinking within a realistic timeframe,

instead of stretching one’s imagination, like science fiction, for example, a world in 2100.

4. The reference guide also aims to introduce a wide range of OECD data in support of developing

data literacy of the students of the Tohoku School as well as introducing back casting thinking

framework.

Acknowledgement

5. This document was prepared by the empowerment partners of the Tohoku School project. They

studied OECD data and summarised main findings, selected relevant findings, identified other relevant

sources, and translated them into English. The contributors include: Mr. Takahiro FUTADA (Nara

Women’s University Junior High School), Ms. Saki KINNAN, Ms. Reona OKADA and Ms. Shiori

YAMASHITA (Osaka University), Ms. Hikari KUNISHIO (Kansei Gakuin University), Ms. Ayaka

MURAI (Nara Women’s University), Ms. Mao YASUDA and Ms. Marino OMORI (Blue Earth Project),

Ms. Eri SASAKI, Mr. Keiichiro SASAKI and Mr. Makoto NAKAGIRI (Tokyo University).

6. The document was translated by Ms. Kazuna Inohana, Ms. Kayo Tiffany, Ms. Nao Matsushita,

Ms. Mayuko Mizukawa, Ms. Miyu Nakagawa, Ms. Asahi Obata, Ms. Erika Takagi, and Ms. Sakura

Tsukada (Doshisha International High School) and was edited by Ms. Kelly Makowiecki (OECD). The

figures were prepared by Ms. Kelly Makowiecki and Mr. Masafumi Ishikawa (OECD).


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. GO GLOBAL .............................................................................................................................................. 3

Current state of play ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ........................................................................................ 3

2. THINK GREEN ....................................................................................................................................... 6

Current state of play ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ........................................................................................ 7

3. WAR, PEACE AND CITIZENSHIP ........................................................................................................ 10

Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 10 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 12

4. SKILLS SUPPLY AND DEMAND.......................................................................................................... 14


5. MIND THE GAP .................................................................................................................................... 18


6. MODERN FAMILIES .............................................................................................................................. 22


7. INFINITE CONNECTION .................................................................................................................... 26


BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................................... 29


1. GO GLOBAL

Current state of play

7. The number of people migrating to affluent countries is increasing. The globalization, in other

words the mobility of individuals, families and human capital, has been facilitated by the advances of

technology and the decrease in cost of migration. “Transport” of people has become more accessible due to

the affordable cost, and it has been developing new markets and new ways of being. Following this trend,

the community is starting to change, and the citizen’s diversity is increasing.

8. In the picture below, you will notice that the migration rate in each country is increasing between

1960 and 2010 in most countries. In comparison to the data as a whole, Japan’s immigration rate is lower

than other countries, but it is increasing.

Figure 1.1. More diverse communities with increasing numbers of international migrants

Stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population, 1960, 1985 and 2010

Note: International migrants are defined as individuals whose country of birth is not that in which they reside. Due to availability of data, 1990 figures are given in place of 1985 for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, the Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.

Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.

Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030

9. One research study (Japan not being included) indicates the following:

In Australia, England, Wales, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, the

number of people born in foreign countries will greatly increase, and by 2050, 15%-32% of

the population will be foreign-born.

Among the people born in foreign countries, the number of migrants from Western countries

will decrease, and the number of migrants from countries besides the West will increase. Also

considering their high birth rates, an increase in population is expected.

0

10

20

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Isra

el

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1960 1985 2010


Today, one-third of the population in the United States are ethnic minorities. In 2023, half of

all children will have ethnic minority backgrounds, and in 2042, they will comprise the

majority of the population.

The increase in number of children who are ethnic minorities will affect the preservation of

culture. For example, people in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, etc. have a tradition of an

expanded family. They have a strong mutual relationship developed by the elderly raising

youth and youth helping the elderly. However, in Asian families that emigrated from

England, communication between generations, the culture of an expanded family living

together and the authority of seniors are starting to diminish.

Children born in foreign countries or born between parents of different races have the

tendency to favour holding an identity of being “a new mixed race”.

Figure 1.2. Estimation of number of migrants according to region (Number of migrants in each country is expected to increase a great amount in the following years)

Coleman, D. (2009), The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their Ethnic Composition.


What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…

Cultural and language varieties will greatly influence our schools and classrooms. Children that have

migrated are having problems with adapting to the environment and language barriers. The outlook of

2030 is moving beyond questions regarding whether we are prepared to face these problems. We are

now at a time to reconsider the roles of teachers, schools, parents and communities.

Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of

education in 2030.

It is reported that many families that migrate experience instability and exclusion. Now that

more people are expected to migrate, what can the government and the schools do to admit

all children equally and to grant equal education for all?

What does cultural diversity actually mean? In order to accept cultural diversity in schools

and classrooms, what do students and teachers need to understand before accepting cultural

diversity?

Do you think bullying regarding race, citizenship and new identities exists? If it does, what

can the schools and classrooms do to prevent bullying for migrant children?

In the future, it is predicted that youth like you will have more opportunities of working

overseas and studying abroad. How can the schools and district communities help to prepare

youth for those opportunities?

Now that the competitions of global markets are intensifying, it is said that each country will

need to create innovations to maintain its position. What can the government, schools and

classrooms do to allow students to acquire the skills necessary for global competition and

international co-operation?


2. THINK GREEN


10. Today, we are facing many environmental problems. Natural resources are being consumed

rapidly, and the demand of energy in our daily lives is growing. According to the figure below, between

1990 and 2010, biodiversity decreased due to deforestation that is taking place around the world.

Figure 2.1. Biodiversity decreasing through ongoing deforestation worldwide

Change in forest cover (Index 1990 = 100), 1990-2010

Note: The BRIICS countries are the emerging economies of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa.


11. This next figure shows that between 1980 and 2009, natural disasters are starting to be observed

in more places than before.

Figure 2.2. Natural disasters becoming more commonplace

Number of natural disasters by type, 1980-2009

Note: Trends in weather-related disasters are compiled using information from the Emergency Events database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This database also monitors direct economic losses and the number of victims.


90

92

94

96

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100

102

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

OECD BRIICS Rest of World World

0

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70

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tropical and extratropical cyclones, local storms Droughts and temperature extremes

Coastal and fluvial floods, flash floods



12. Research has indicated the following:

If new policies are not introduced, the basis of the environment will change dramatically over

the next decades, making it irreversible. Consequently, maintaining industrial advancement

will become difficult.

It is estimated that there will be a 37% increase by 2030, and a 52% increase by 2050 in the

amount of greenhouse gas emitted around the world. This signifies that by 2050, the world’s

temperature will be 1.7℃ to 2.4℃ higher compared to the temperature prior to the Industrial

Revolution. It also indicates high possibilities of natural disasters, including heat waves,

droughts, rainstorms and floods increasing, and those disasters causing greater damage for

crops.

Figure 2.3. Total greenhouse emissions (by region) 1970-2050

a) OECD Environmental outlook Baseline b) 450 ppm stabilisation policy simulation

Source: OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.

13. In addition to climate change, expansion of farming areas is expected to force many creatures

recognised today into extinction. In order to produce food supplies and biofuel, there is the need to increase

the world’s farming area by 10%. This will lead to further decrease of habitats of wild animals. The

continuation of loss of diversity within the wild creatures can damage the valuable ecosystem, which

supports industrial advancement and health of human beings.

OECD

BRIC

ROW

Total Baseline

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1970 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 2050

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GtCO2 eq

OECD

BRIC

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1970 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 2050

Year

GtCO2 eq

GHG reduction of

39% by 2050, compared to

2000


Figure 2.4. Sources of losses in mean species abundance to 2030

Source: OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.

14. By 2030, the world’s emission of carbon dioxide related to energy is expected to increase by

52%. Since the current investment in energy infrastructure will determine the future technology, fuel

demand and related emission, it is essential to propagate substitute process and fuel, such as renewable

energy, carbon recovery apparatus and storage technology (e.g., regulating and supporting the research and

development of new technology, giving incentive on further technology innovation, etc.)

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

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00

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OECD BRIC ROW WORLD

0%-

loss to agriculture

loss to climate

loss to forestry

loss to fragmentation

loss to infrastructure

loss to nitrogen

Remaining diversity



The destruction of natural environment, decrease of biological diversity, and the problem of energy

and natural disasters are influencing our society greatly. The risk of it becoming more serious is

increasing. It is expected for education to positively take part in nurturing each person’s attitude,

awareness and sustainable action.


education in 2030.

If a students’ understanding about the environment is not substantial, they have the tendency

to think optimistically and feel that environmental issues can be solved easily. What is the

most effective way to study about the environment?

Is it important to increase the number of academic classes? (e.g., geoscience, biology,

environmental science, etc.)

Or is it important to increase extra-curricular activities?

Are there any other ideas?

What kinds of skills are necessary to raise awareness of people and to educate citizens who

can take responsible actions that are environmentally friendly and sustainable (e.g.,

residential values, critical thinking skills, etc.)? Can those skills be acquired in school?

Compare “Environmentally friendly economy” and “Environmentally damaging economy”

by giving examples. What skills and specialties are necessary to create an environmentally

friendly economy?

Environmental issues are global issues.

What kind of skills, knowledge and attitude are required to approach these issues

globally?

Today, natural disasters are occurring all over the world. Are there any actions Japan

could initiate to lead the world after experiencing the disastrous Great East Japan

Earthquake? If so, what are they?

Environmental issues are issues that are accumulating at a daily pace. How can we become

more aware of the connection between our daily actions and long-term results? What can the

schools do to motivate people to take actions not only independently, but with the society as

a whole?


3. WAR, PEACE AND CITIZENSHIP


15. In the 20th century, also known as the “War Era”, more than one million lives were lost, of which

half are said to be the lives of innocent civilians. It is during this century, in which movements against war

and movements for peace became serious and more active than ever before, and to this day, have been

ceaseless.

16. Today in the 21st century, there are wars and disputes occurring in different regions around the

world. Japan is also facing grave conflicts, including tense relationships with the Asian countries and

Russia due to historical issues and territorial disputes and the Okinawan conflict with the United States.

Japan is currently facing the need to handle these issues by approaching the matter as those who are

directly involved in these conflicts. Furthermore, in our daily lives, many sad life-consuming crimes are

taking place as a result of violations to human rights. The creation of a world with no wars or disputes is a

task which people cannot ignore if they yearn to move forward.

17. Even though the idea of a peaceful society and a peaceful world is becoming more prevalent each

and every day, the voter turnout rate is decreasing in a number of countries, and less people are

participating in democracy to play their role in society. To raise the awareness of each individual of being a

member of their society is an enormous challenge to face. The following figure shows the decrease in

number of people who are engaged in their democracies.

Figure 3.1. Fewer people engaged in their democracies

Parliamentary voter turnout, in 1950, 1980 and 2010

Note: Voter turnout is the total number of votes cast (valid or invalid) divided by the number of people registered to vote, expressed as a percentage. Where the data for countries were not consistently available in the same years, figures from the closest year are used.


18. Among all, young people’s interest towards democracy is particularly important. For children to

grow up in an environment where they can fully explore their potential, it is essential to consider the

children’s standpoint as a priority instead of prioritizing the adults’ perspectives. In order to do so, it is

important to grasp the children’s view and opinion towards their own family and society accurately.

40

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100

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1950 1980 2010


【Will you be happy at the age of 40?】

19. The recent Cabinet Office white paper has introduced an international survey result stating that,

compared to other countries, youth in Japan does not have much hope for their future. In Japan, youth who

have hope for their future is over 60% of the population, and those who think will be happy at the age of

forty is less than 70%. These percentage rates are the worst out of all countries. As the age gets older, the

pattern becomes more prominent. The number of people who answered that they were happy with

themselves or knew their strengths in Japan was the least out of the seven countries as well. The diffidence

and negativity of the Japanese youth became very distinctive.

Figure3.2. Self-reporting

Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014a), International Survey of Youth Attitude 2013.

【Society Structure・Awareness of social co-operation】

20. The involvement in social issues and social participation in Japan, compared to other countries, is

comparatively low. Only 40% of Japanese youth desire to get involved in social issues to make their

community a better place. Additionally, only 30% think that their involvement will benefit the community.

In both cases, Japan has the lowest percentage rates.

Figure 3.3. Involvement in the public policy decision-making process

Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.

61.6

86.4

91.1

89.8

82.4

83.3

90.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Japan

Korea

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Sweden

Hopes for the Future(I have hope)

(%)66.2

81.6

86.8

86.1

86.2

87.4

82.1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Japan

Korea

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Sweden

How the Future is Imagined(I will be happy when I am about 40 years old)

(%)

44.3

60.464.3

57.1

76.2

50.9 52.9

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Japan Korea UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

Germany France Sweden

I want to be involved in social issues for the betterment of society

30.2

39.2

52.9

45.0

52.6

44.4 43.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


UnitedKingdom


My participation may be the catalyst for some change in social phenomena that I want changed

(%)


【Cognition towards one`s own country?】

21. The Japanese are as proud of their own country as people from other countries. More people in

Japan are wishing to help their own country compared to other countries, and 70% of youth are proud to be

Japanese, which is similar to other countries. Japanese youth are especially proud of “public peace” in their

country, “history and cultural heritage”, “culture and art” and “science and technology” in order from the

highest to the lowest. Many Japanese youth have the desire to do something helpful for their own country,

and this trend is more prominent among youth aged between their late teens and early twenties.

Figure 3.4. Service to your country

Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.


22. Research has indicated the following:

< Change in Governance >

In the next 15 to 20 years, the power within the international community will diffuse.

Consequently, the number of diverse state and non-state actors, as well as city-like “sub-state”

actors, will increase, making governance play a more important role.

An increase in number of actors solving issues globally will complicate the decision-making

process because there will be a greater difference in values. (Lack of consensus between

advanced and developing countries will become more prominent.)

There are possibilities of advancement of multi-polarization, expansion of regionalism,

downturn in economy and division due to cumulative deficit.

The expansion of new communication technology is useful but also harmful for governance.

It will allow citizens to co-operate and participate in government, but the balance between the

strengthened IT network between individuals and the traditional government structure is

unresolved.

54.5

43.2 42.4 40.6

49.7

44.8

53.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


UnitedKingdom


I would like to do something to serve my country(%)

52.4

57.3 57.8

50.3

0

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20

30

40

50

60

70

13-15 16-19 20-24 25-29

I would like to do something to serve my country

Japan

Korea

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Sweden

(%)

(age)


< The possibility of increasing disputes >

Considering that the total population of Sub-Sahara Africa includes more ethnic and minority

groups in the younger generation, it is highly likely that there will continue to be disputes

within a country even after it matures, especially in East Asia and West Asia, which includes

the Sub-Sahara, China and India where water resources and farming soil are insufficient.

Additionally, the number of young men varies, and this can also potentially become a cause

for disputes within a country. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Somalia all have

unstable regimes.

The probability of disputes between nations is increasing due to the change in the

international system. The foundation arranged after the Cold War is starting to shift. For the

next 15 to 20 years, the United States will continue to play a crucial role for the world order.

If the United States starts to lose its power to provide security around the globe, it will cause

more instability especially in Asia and the Middle East.

If the international system that shapes the current support system collapses, it will increase the

risk of international disputes and intensify the competition between countries. However even

if these disputes arise, it is less likely to become a World War involving principal countries.

There are three different types of risks which could cause disputes among nations. One is the

change in prediction regarding principal countries including China, India and Russia. Another

is the intensifying assertion to claim natural resources. The last type of risk is the facilitation

of technology and measures used for war.



education in 2030.

Is it necessary to create an opportunity to think about global issues at school? If so, in what

class would this be held? Would it be during contemporary history, world history, English,

or intercultural communications classes? If class time is limited to subjects related to exams

due to shortage in time, how can these issues be taught?

Many countries have faith that education can solve disputes around the world. What role

can education play to prevent crimes? If it is possible, what can schools and classrooms do?

When you officially become an adult, (in Japan, the age of 20) will you vote? Is there

anything the school can do to make every adult vote? Is there something that can be done

outside of school?

Is there an opportunity where students can express their ideas in school besides activities

related to student council? What kind of activities could allow teachers and students to work

co-operatively side by side?

What kind of opportunities are there outside of school that cultivate students` understanding

towards democracy? (E.g., student council, Youth Parliament, Model United Nations)

If there is a “Model OECD”, would you be interested in participating?


4. SKILLS SUPPLY AND DEMAND


23. As the OECD countries transition from industrialized society to knowledge based society, and as

globalization and transformation into advanced technology make rapid progress, what specifically is an

ability to apply knowledge and skills to real life?

24. Technological revolution has brought changes to types of work and forms of employment.

Routine work, which is a typical repetitive work, has already transitioned from human work to computer

work. This tendency will continue to get stronger.

25. Accompanying the technological revolution, skills demanded from the labour market have been

changing in OECD countries. The graph below shows the transition in the demand of work form with the

United States in the 1960s as the standard. Over several decades, especially after 1990, demand for “non-

repetitive work without patterns / analytical tasks” and “non-repetitive work without patterns / interactive

work form” is increasing remarkably, and “repetitive work with patterns / handwork” is decreasing. In

Japan, similar tendency, such as the great change in demand for non-routine / interactive skills, could be

seen.

Figure 4.1. Trends in the demand for skills: United States

Source: OECD (2014a), PISA 2012 Results: Skills for Life (Volume V): Student Performance in Problem Solving.

38

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52

54

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1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interactive

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

mean task inputs across occupation-industry cells, in percentiles of the 1960 task distribution


Figure 4.2. Trends in the demand for skills: Japan

Source: OECD (2014a), PISA 2012 Results: Skills for Life (Volume V): Student Performance in Problem Solving.

26. In times when “non-repetitive work without patterns / analytical tasks and interactive work form”

are important, acquiring skills is becoming more important. People without sufficient skills are driven to

the outskirts of society, and if people with these skills do not exist, the country will not be able to survive

in a knowledge based economy or in a global competition. For these reasons, many countries are actively

working on “improving skills”, but many continue to face problems caused by mismatch of skills, skills

shortage and unemployment.

27. At the same time, skills to create innovation are required in any field. According to research

comparing and analysing university graduate students in Europe, more students who work at an

organisation which creates innovations five years after graduation and is involved in at least one process

that introduces innovation responded that creativity, critical thinking, communication, entrepreneurship

and adjustments in work are important compared to students who do not have that background. The graph

on the next page indicates that students who introduce innovations considered the followings important,

“finding new ideas / solutions”, “eagerness to present questions for ideas”, “presenting ideas to others” and

“being sensitive about chances and opportunities”.

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interactive

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

percentage point changes in mean task inputs across occupations relative to 1960


Figure 4.3. Critical skills for the most innovative jobs, by type of innovation

Tertiary-educated workers who contribute to their organisation's innovation activities face higher skill requirements than non-innovative graduates

Note: Odds ratios correspond to the likelihood of mentioning the skill as required for workers in innovative jobs, compared to workers in non-innovative jobs. Generalised odds ratio are computed from logistic regressions controlling for country and sector of activity. The five most critical skills are highlighted for each type of innovation.

Source: Avvisati, F., G. Jacotin and S. Vincent-Lancrin (2013), “Educating Higher Education Students for Innovative Economies: What International Data Tell Us”, Tuning Journal for Higher Education, No. 1, November 2013, pp. 223-240.


28. The Future of Work: Jobs and skills in 2030 predicts the following about the changes in work and

skills in Britain in 2030:

Aging in the workplace

Increasing diversity in gender, race and ethnic groups in the working environment.

Income becomes unstable. Regional gap of personal income will broaden.

Voices demanding for work-life-balance (having a balance between work and private life)

will increase.

Practical use of Information Communication Technology (ICT) and out sourcing (to external

organizations), globalization and more flexible correspondence will be demanded in the

working environment.

Skills to assemble technology and correspond to different fields will become required. For

example, the ability to combine biotechnology, ICT, nanotechnology and cognitive science

will become required.

3.9

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

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2.4

2.4

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any type of innovation

3.2

2.6

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1.7

124

come with news ideas/solutions

willingness to question ideas

present ideas in audience

alertness to opportunities

analytical thinking

coordinate activities

acquire new knowledge

mobilize capacities of others

make your meaning clear

master of your own field

write reports or documents

write and speak a foreign…

use computers and internet

work productively with others

use time efficiently

perform under pressure

negociate

knowledge of other fields

assert your authority

product or service

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.3

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.0

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.7

1.5

1 2 4

technology or tools

3.6

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

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knowledge or methods


ICT will continue to develop and digital devices invented for utilizing massive amount of data

will gain attention.

Economic growth and globally influential power will shift to Asia.

New pioneer activities by companies that give considerations to the environment and

ecosystem friendly system will become important.

Shortage of resources and destruction of ecosystems will exhaust natural resources, and the

costs of resources will increase.



education in 2030.

By what kind of activities in schools or societies can “non-repetitive working skills without

patterns”, “analytical working skills”, and “interactive working skills” required in the modern

society be attained?

By what kind of activities in schools or societies can the skills necessary for introducing

innovations, “finding new ideas /solutions”, “eagerness to present questions for ideas”,

“presenting ideas to others” and “being sensitive about chances and opportunities” be

attained?

What kind of reformation does society need for people who have sufficient skills required in

the society to be recognised in university and high school entrance exams or tests to get

hired?

By the time you become an adult, it has been said that along with hard work, time to spend

with family and hobby <work life balance> will have a higher demand. Do you have an

experience of improving your imagination and creativity skills through your free time instead

of just studying and working? Was the length of the “free time” sufficient in schools and

societies?

When you become an adult, it is likely that you will work with more elderly people, women

and migrants. What kind of skills and attitudes are necessary to work with a team of people

with different age, gender, and race to ultimately reach the best results while respecting each

other? How can children attain these skills from the schools or societies?


5. MIND THE GAP


29. Despite the improvement of economic wealth, income inequality within OECD countries is

growing, on average. In addition to growing inequality, spending on social programmes is increasing

within all OECD countries.

30. The main cause of this inequality is the unbalanced distribution of wage and income. In

comparison to the low and middle income classes, the amount of income richer classes receive is

increasing rapidly. This is because workers with high-quality skills are receiving the benefits from

integration of trade and financial markets and technological advancements. On the other hand, workers

without high-quality skills are being left behind. Also, inequality and the gap in wages widened as the

number of part-time workers increased and the amount of unemployment allowances decreased.

31. In order to reduce these gaps, education can be an effective solution to raise skill levels.

However, in order to help poorer classes in ways of education and employment, it is necessary to reinforce

the supports.

32. From the graph below, it can be seen that the income gaps widened in various OECD countries

between 1985 and 2008. Mexico had the largest gap in both years followed by Turkey and the United

States. Denmark and Norway both had exceedingly low standards of income gap besides experiencing a

slight increase in the same time frame. However, we have to keep in mind that because the latest data is

from 2008, any impacts from the financial crisis that happened after 2008 are not taken into consideration.

If these impacts were considered, the results would be different from the data above.

Figure 5.1. Growing income inequality in many countries

Gini Coefficients for OECD countries, in 1985 and 2008

Note: The Gini Coefficient is an indicator of income inequality, where the higher the number, the greater the inequality.


0.00

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33. The following graph shows how the inequality of income is expanding while the amount of social

expenditure is increasing in OECD countries. The expansion of income inequality causes the increase of

governmental expenditure in order to support low income classes. The social expenditure includes

financial aid, housing allowances, and unemployment allowances. The country which had the highest

standard of social expenditure was Luxembourg, and the lowest were countries such as Mexico, Turkey

and South Korea.

Figure 5.2. Increasing social expenditure

Public and mandatory private social expenditure per capita, at constant purchasing power parity 2000 US dollars, 1980-2007

Note: Social expenditure is the provision by public (and private) institutions of benefits to, and financial contributions targeted at, households and individuals in order to provide support during circumstances which adversely affect their welfare, provided that the provision of the benefits and financial contributions constitutes neither a direct payment for a particular good or service nor an individual contract or transfer.


34. The following graph shows the widening gap not only within countries but also the increasing

gap between affluent countries and impoverished countries. South Asia and Sub-Saharan African regions

hardly developed in terms of economy. The gap of the GDP rate per capita between affluent countries and

impoverished countries widened from the average of USD 8,000 to USD 44,000 between 1980 and 2010.

These inequality and poverty issues can potentially become subjects of dispute, and therefore it is

necessary to take on actions for assertive rectification and international co-operation.

0

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1980 1995 2007


Figure 5.3. The widening gap between richer and poorer regions

GDP per capita by region, 1980-2010

Note: Data presented in purchasing power parity (PPP) current international dollars. An international dollar would buy in the cited country a comparable amount of goods and services a US dollar would buy in the United States.



35. Research indicates the following:

In Western countries, new poverty classes will appear, and the number of middle class

households will shrink.

It is predicted that the middle class will hold up most of the population within many

developing countries. The population of middle class households will increase up to 3.2

billion by 2020, and 4.9 billion by 2030. (World population estimated as 8.3 billion)

85% of the expansion of the middle class is expected to take place in Asia. Also, the

expansion of the middle class will have huge impacts on world’s social and economic

development.

In Asian countries and Latin American countries, the middle class will expand; however, the

inequality of income as a whole is expected to grow.

There is a possibility of expanding inequality of income in Asia and Africa. The higher

standard of income gap can be seen not only in countries but even more within social groups.

Absolute poverty is expected to decrease continuously. Today, there are one billion people

who live under extreme poverty and spend less than $1.25 a day. This number is starting to

decrease as the population grows. This number is predicted to decrease by 50% between 2010

and 2030. However, people who live under extreme poverty still remain, and the inequality

that exists between the rich and the poor is becoming immobilised.

Countries that materialise GDP growth but fail to invest in human development will

underestimate the importance of the quality of life in a long-term perspective. This will

ultimately lead to social and economic corruption in the country.

0

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

North America OECD members Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa East Asia & Pacific

South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa




education in 2030.

Article 26 of The Constitution of Japan states that, “All people shall have the right to

receive an equal education correspondent to their ability, as provided by law.”

(日本国憲法（和英対訳版）: www.akon.sakura.ne.jp/constitution/ 引用) Education

grants people “opportunities”, which allow people to escape from poverty, making social

mobility possible. However, because the richer classes have easier access to better

education, there is a possibility that these inequalities will be reproduced through education.

Is it possible to design an educational system without reinforcing these gaps?

In this aging society where the working population is declining, who will be paying taxes in

the future?

In Japan where the expenditure for social security has been increasing due to the aging

society, how can investments for education be secured in the future?

Can you think of any wealth that can be measured by anything other than GDP which

measures economic wealth? Recently, there are attempts to measure other wealth, such as

happiness. Is there anything else you consider as a “country’s wealth” and if there is, “how

would you measure that?” For example, what kind of index would you consider in order to

determine which country seems most fascinating for you?

Think about both mutual and distinctive problems concerning inequality and poverty issues

domestically (high, low and middle class) and globally (advanced countries, developing

countries, and extremely impoverished countries).


6. MODERN FAMILIES


36. Since 1960, the forms of family in OECD countries have changed a lot. Not only did the

number of extended families including grandparents decrease, but the increase of divorce rate and increase

in number of people who choose to cohabit has also caused nuclear families to decrease. These changes are

relevant to the increasing number of single parent households and today, one fifth to one fourth of all

families that have children are single parent households. (OECD 2008) Social transitions, such as the

growth in migration, increasing diversity of cultures and values, social advancements of women, additional

lengthening of young people’s education and work training period, improving average life span, increasing

isolation of elderlies and less connection within the societies, are causing issues in various fields including

national finance, labour market and education. The graph below indicates that ageing will continue at a

rapid pace until 2100.

Figure 6.1. Average age going up into the next century

Median age of the population, in 1950, 2010 and 2100

Note: The median age is the age that divides the population in two parts of equal size, that is, there are as many persons with ages above the median as there are with ages below the median.




The number of one-person households is expected to increase facilitated by the ageing

society.

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Figure 6.2. One-person households

Projected % increase in numbers of one-person households in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030

Note: The periods over which changes are projected are as follows: Australia (2006 to 2026), Austria (2007 to 2030), France (2005 to 2030), Germany (2007 to 2025), Japan (2005 to 2030), Korea (2007 to 2030), Netherlands (2009 to 2030), New Zealand (2006 to 2031), Norway (2002 to 2030), Switzerland (2005 to 2030), United Kingdom (2006 to 2031) and United States (2000 to 2025).

Source: OECD (2011), The Future of Families to 2030: A synthesis report.

It is estimated that single-parent households (households with only one parent, like single

mother) will increase due to the changes in forms of family.

Figure 6.3. Single-parent families

Projected % increase in numbers of single-parent households in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030

Note and source: see Figure 6.2.

The number of married couples without children is expected to increase, facilitated by the

declining birth rate and improving average life span.

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26 28 2934 35

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Figure 6.4. Couples without children

Projected % increase in numbers of couples without children in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030

Note and source: see Figure 6.2.

There is a great difference in fluctuation of population among different regions and countries.

For example, Japan is already experiencing population decrease, and the population is

expected to continue decreasing at an even faster pace. On the other hand, the population in

the United States today is approximately 300 million, but this number is estimated to reach

440 million by 2050. In Europe, the population is expected to continue increasing until 2030

but will start to decrease after that until around 2050. Also, the percentage of young people

out of the population as a whole is predicted to decrease between now and 2030 (OECD,

2011).

Due to the advancement of medical treatment, the average life span is expected to improve six

additional years by 2050, and the population of those between 80 and 90 years old is likely to

increase.

The growing participation rate of the older generation (above 65 years old) to the labour

market will be observed. Companies will discover advantages of hiring those people, and they

will find different ways to keep those employees.

Increasing number of old people are expected to enjoy “healthy ageing”, but many will

continue to work after retirement age because the pension does not cover all of their spending.

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Figure 6.5. Population ageing and labour force participation in OECD countries

Note: Labour force participation rates are for men and women combined.

Source: OECD (2011), The Future of Families to 2030: A synthesis report.



education in 2030.

Decreasing number of children means decreasing number students at school. Some of you

might have experienced school integrations or school closures. Have you ever felt like there

were less choices of school due to school integrations and school closures? We can consider

the population decline a "chance" instead of considering it an issue. This is because each

student is granted more resources and opportunities to make new innovations. Brainstorm

ideas for a new school, using examples from other countries. For example, designing a new

school or assembling all students from preschool to high school in one area.

Students who have none or only few siblings, never interacted with their grandparents and

are born between comparatively older parents are expected to increase. What does this mean

for school education? Will there be a great difference in life experiences? If so, what can the

schools and societies do about that?

To gratify old people's educational and cultural needs, what roles can the schools and the

societies play?

Is it possible to construct a system that will allow anybody to go back to school according to

the needs of different life styles and career paths?

There are many people who suffer from loneliness and sense of alienation after moving to

urban areas. What can the schools and the societies do or should do to solve these problems?


7. INFINITE CONNECTION


38. Computers and Information Technology has become part of our daily lives and we are expected

to keep up with its rapid changes more than ever. Today, we have easy quick access to massive amounts of

information. This phenomenon is starting to influence education and skill developments. Today, great

investments are made to create an environment where internet and computers are accessible in a lot of

countries. Yet, there are still a lot of concerns and problems remaining regarding the use of technology in

education.

39. The increase in number of Global Internet activity can be observed in the following graph.

Figure 7.1. Global Internet activity rising exponentially

Global IP traffic, 1984-2014 (projected)

Note: Internet Protocol (IP) traffic, is the amount of data exchanged between different IP addresses (unique numbers assigned to every device using the Internet). This is essentially a measure of the volume of Internet activity. Terabytes are a unit of digital data equal to 1012 bytes. The maximum figure on the y axis of 50 million terabytes is equal to 50 exabytes.


40. The increase in activities taken place on the internet throughout computers and smartphones,

have led to issues such as “Cyber Bullying” as shown in the graph below. (Figure on next page: The

percentage of children who have experienced Cyber Bullying, in the year 2010.)

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Figure 7.2. Cyber bullying: An emerging and troubling challenge

Percentage of children surveyed reporting being bullied online and offline, in 2010




More companies and organisations will be utilising Broadband technology. Because of this,

there will be a dramatic increase in the number of situations where you will be working or

studying in locations far apart.

There will be more flexibility in time and space according to each person’s needs to work and

study. The boarder-line between “working” and “studying” will be obscure, and these two

will become inseparable. “Learning while working” and “Working while learning”. There

will even be an era in which working will directly tie-in to studying, and studying will

directly tie-in to working.

Social Networking Services will expand even more. On the one hand, this will make the

connections between family, friends and other people stronger. However on the other hand, it

can also inhibit those connections.

Arrangements of ubiquitous (able to use anywhere at any time) environment and ICT

environment will continue, and the opportunity of “Open Education” will increase and

develop even more. In order for universities and companies to gather the smartest people from

around the world, the opportunities to use “Open Education” will increase. There will also be

a greater chance for people in developing countries to be able to receive high school

education and acquire expertise, skills and knowledge without going to university and for no

charge.

“Online education by companies” will increase. A lot of companies will even start to establish

their own educational institutions. “Open Education” does not only expand the “freedom of

taking classes”. One of the main features is “the expansion of freedom where anybody can

teach”.

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Bullied online Bullied, online or offline


It is estimated that Information Technology will be entering an era of “high capacity data “.

The processing speed and data cumulative dose will mostly be free, and the networks and

Clouds will make access from all around the world possible to spread its services.

While Internet Technology is fulfilling sustainable economic yield and improving the quality

of our daily lives, minimising natural resource consumption and environmental pollution are

crucial and relevant to the existence ability of a big city.

Social Media and Cyber Security will become a new enormous market. The growth and

expansion of this field will promote the use of Internet Technology to countries and societies.

Meanwhile, it also strikes us with the issue of fighting against a whole new threat.

Newly produced technology (such as 3D printing and robots) and automation technology may

change its function, within both advanced countries and developing countries. There is a

possibility that workers who do not have technological skills or lack sufficient abilities will

exceed in advanced countries, which may then lead to unemployment and inequality within

the country.



education in 2030.

Massive amount of information can be stored on the internet, and we can easily upload and

download on the internet today.

We are able to look up what we learn at school on the internet. However this does not

ensure the “credibility” of the information. How can Media Literacy, the ability to

determine reliable and unreliable information, be acquired in schools and societies?

There are also concerns over how easily our personal information can be leaked online.

How can we bring children’s attention to the risks involved in the use of internet? Can

Internet Literacy, such as protecting personal information, be developed within schools,

societies and families?

Issues caused by anonymous defamations and hurtful comments online have become

prevalent. What can we do to eliminate Cyber Bullying?

How can “Online Courses” be utilised in schools and societies? If you have any experience

that can potentially turn around the whole concept of “schools” we are aware of, please

share them with us. For example, is it possible to send what one student had researched, to

another student online and have that student teach the material to other students?

Making use of Social Networking Sites (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) or portable devices

(Smartphones, etc.), we are currently able to access information and communicate without

any limits. However, at times, this can cause children to lose focus from studying. Please

think about the “issues and dangers” and “possibilities and its positive aspects” of using

such devices at school. Is it possible to utilise such devices for classes, homework and

exams?

English is the most common language used on the internet but there are many different

languages used as well. What can we do to take an advantage of this?


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Avvisati, F., G. Jacotin and S. Vincent-Lancrin (2013), “Educating Higher Education Students for

Innovative Economies: What International Data Tell Us”, Tuning Journal for Higher Education, No.

1, November 2013, pp. 223-240.

Coleman, D. (2009), “The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their

Ethnic Composition”, http://gt2030.com/2012/08/03/the-impact-of-immigration-on-the-populations-

of-the-developed-world-and-their-ethnic-composition/.

EUISS (2012), Global Trends 2030 – Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World,

http://europa.eu/espas/pdf/espas_report_ii_01_en.pdf.

Japan Cabinet Office (2014a), International Survey of Youth Attitude 2013.

Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.

Matsumoto, H. (2012), “Thinking beyond 2014”, presentation from the 31 July-4 August 2012 Tohoku

School workshop, hosted in Iwaki, Japan, www.oecd.org/tokyo/topic/oecd-

tohokuschooljapanese/20120731_PPT_Mr.Matsumoto_JP.pdf.

National Intelligence Council (2012), Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, OECD Publishing.

OECD (2009), The Future of International Migration to OECD Countries, OECD Publishing.

OECD (2011), The Future of Families to 2030: A synthesis report, OECD Publishing.

OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013, OECD Publishing.

OECD (2014a), PISA 2012 Results: Creative Problem Solving (Volume V): Students' Skills in Tackling

Real-Life Problems, PISA, OECD Publishing.

OECD (2014b), OECD Innovation Strategy, www.oecd.org/site/innovationstrategy, accessed 23 July 2014.

UK Commission for Employment and Skills (2014), The Future of Work: Jobs and skills in 2030,

Evidence Report 84, www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/D_Publikationen/D_Auftragsstudien/the-

future-of-work-evidence-report.pdf.

2030 Work Style Project (2014), Opinion 2030 Work Style, www.recruit-ms.co.jp/research/2030/opinion,

accessed 23 July 2014.

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