Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry …...Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of...
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Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry Ministers Overview Canada is a forest nation, with forests covering more than 50 percent of the country’s land mass. Large- scale disturbances, such as fire and pest outbreaks, affect 5 percent of the forested area annually. Climate determines forest distribution (location), composition (type of trees), productivity (the amount of timber and wood fibre), dynamics (interactions) and disturbances. As such, climate change is projected to have far-reaching consequences for Canada’s forest sector. In addition to the direct economic benefits from the harvest of timber and fibre, forests provide recreational and cultural value, as well as non-timber forest products such as mushrooms and berries. Ecosystem services provided by forests, such as clean air and water, carbon storage, and soil nutrients, also have social and economic value, although this is difficult to quantify. Climate change presents challenges to Canada’s forest managers. Decisions made today will impact the forest for more than 100 years, given the long generation times of trees. Trees can cope with a certain amount of change in their environment through physiological or genetic adaptation; but the rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the ability of forests to adapt enough to maintain the level of goods and services they now provide. The Canadian forest industry has been facing significant economic challenges, resulting in lost jobs, mill closures, and a general downturn in the forest sector. Effective adaptation must address all of these drivers of change in the forest sector. Impacts of climate change Due to their northern location, Canada’s forests are exposed to greater increases in temperature than the global average. These impacts are more significant in some parts of the country than others. Past assessments suggest these key findings: • Increases in disturbances (e.g., forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks) are already evident and will become more pronounced in future. • Forest composition (types of trees) will change due to changing disturbances and changing climate. • Access to forests will be impacted by these disturbances, shifting infrastructure costs, and shorter winter harvesting seasons (due to reduced periods of frozen ground). • Forest-based communities in some regions will face significant social and economic impacts (e.g., safety and security costs, forest sector jobs, and tourism may be affected). Forest fires threaten human health, safety, and security. The 2011 fire in Slave Lake, Alberta, resulted in an estimated $742 million in insurance claims. There will be extra costs for protection and community evacuations. • Forests provide important ecological services such as water conservation and purification, habitat for biodiversity, and carbon storage. Tree death due to drought, infestation, and fire will reduce carbon storage capability; and will result in a significant release of carbon into the atmosphere. (By 2020, trees killed by the mountain pine beetle in Western Canada will have released nearly one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere — roughly equivalent to five years of emissions from Canada’s transportation sector.)
Transcript of Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry …...Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of...
Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry Ministers OverviewCanadaisaforestnation,withforestscoveringmorethan50percentofthecountry’slandmass.Large-scaledisturbances,suchasfireandpestoutbreaks,affect5percentoftheforestedareaannually.Climatedeterminesforestdistribution(location),composition(typeoftrees),productivity(theamountoftimberandwoodfibre),dynamics(interactions)anddisturbances.Assuch,climatechangeisprojectedtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforCanada’sforestsector.
Inadditiontothedirecteconomicbenefitsfromtheharvestoftimberandfibre,forestsproviderecreationalandculturalvalue,aswellasnon-timberforestproductssuchasmushroomsandberries.Ecosystemservicesprovidedbyforests,suchascleanairandwater,carbonstorage,andsoilnutrients,alsohavesocialandeconomicvalue,althoughthisisdifficulttoquantify.
ClimatechangepresentschallengestoCanada’sforestmanagers.Decisionsmadetodaywillimpacttheforestformorethan100years,giventhelonggenerationtimesoftrees.Treescancopewithacertainamountofchangeintheirenvironmentthroughphysiologicalorgeneticadaptation;buttherateoffutureclimatechangeislikelytoexceedtheabilityofforeststoadaptenoughtomaintainthelevelofgoodsandservicestheynowprovide.TheCanadianforestindustryhasbeenfacingsignificanteconomicchallenges,resultinginlostjobs,millclosures,andageneraldownturnintheforestsector.Effectiveadaptationmustaddressallofthesedriversofchangeintheforestsector.
ImpactsofclimatechangeDuetotheirnorthernlocation,Canada’sforestsareexposedtogreaterincreasesintemperaturethantheglobalaverage.Theseimpactsaremoresignificantinsomepartsofthecountrythanothers.Pastassessmentssuggestthesekeyfindings:
• Increasesindisturbances(e.g.,forestfires,pestanddiseaseoutbreaks)arealreadyevidentandwillbecomemorepronouncedinfuture.
• Forestcomposition(typesoftrees)willchangeduetochangingdisturbancesandchangingclimate.
• Accesstoforestswillbeimpactedbythesedisturbances,shiftinginfrastructurecosts,andshorterwinterharvestingseasons(duetoreducedperiodsoffrozenground).
• Forest-basedcommunitiesinsomeregionswillfacesignificantsocialandeconomicimpacts(e.g.,safetyandsecuritycosts,forestsectorjobs,andtourismmaybeaffected).Forestfiresthreatenhumanhealth,safety,andsecurity.The2011fireinSlaveLake,Alberta,resultedinanestimated$742millionininsuranceclaims.Therewillbeextracostsforprotectionandcommunityevacuations.
• Forestsprovideimportantecologicalservicessuchaswaterconservationandpurification,habitatforbiodiversity,andcarbonstorage.Treedeathduetodrought,infestation,andfirewillreducecarbonstoragecapability;andwillresultinasignificantreleaseofcarbonintotheatmosphere.(By2020,treeskilledbythemountainpinebeetleinWesternCanadawillhavereleasednearlyonebilliontonnesofcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere—roughlyequivalenttofiveyearsofemissionsfromCanada’stransportationsector.)
Possibleoutcomes
• Forestproductivitycouldincreasewithwarmertemperatures,longergrowingseasons,andincreasingcarbondioxidelevelswhenotherfactorssuchassoil,water,ornutrientsarenotanissue.
• Productivitywillbenegativelyimpactedbyincreaseddroughtandmorefrequentandseveredisturbancesandextremeweatherevents.
Existingresearch
Manypapersandreportsexploreoptionsforforestsectoradaptation,andthereareseveralexamplesofspecificmeasuresbeingimplemented.Researchneeds
• Abetterunderstandingofforestsectorvulnerabilitiesisneededtohelpfutureworkonadaptation.Ingeneral,theconceptofadaptationisnotyetwellunderstood.
• Integrationofon-the-groundmeasurementswithremotesensingdata(satellites)greatlyincreasesCanada’sabilitytomonitorforestchangesandwhethertheyaredirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange.
• Sharingdataacrossdisciplines(biology,physics,geology,meteorology,etc.)willalsohelpbuildabigpictureofthevulnerabilitiesweface.
• Significantuncertaintyremainsabout:o futureclimateconditions,o themultiple,interactingimpactsofclimatechangeoncomplexforestecosystems,ando forestresponsetothosechanges.
• ScientificunderstandingofpastandfutureclimatechangeimpactsonCanada’sforestshasincreasedsubstantivelyoverthepastdecade,butthisinformationisnotalwaysavailable,accessible,and/orapplicabletoprospectiveend-users.Infact,someintheCanadianforestryindustryhaveidentifiedalackofknowledgeaboutprospectiveadaptationoptionsasabarriertoaction.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Forestry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.70.
Mapofmountainpinebeetledistribution,showingchangeoverthe2002–06(orange)and2007–11(red)periods.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.72.
Stakeholder Profile 2: Canadian Hydropower Association OverviewCanadaistheworld’sthird-largestproducerofhydroelectricity.Hydroelectricityaccountsfor59percentofCanada’selectricitygeneration(StatisticsCanada,2013).IntheprovincesofQuebec,BritishColumbia,Manitoba,andNewfoundlandandLabrador,morethan90percentofelectricityproductioncomesfromhydro.Ontario,Alberta,andNewBrunswickalsoproducesignificantquantitiesofhydroelectricity,whiletheYukonandNorthwestTerritoriesrelyonhydrotohelpmeetlocalenergydemand.ThemajorityofCanada’shydroproductioncomesfromlargereservoirsystems.Somecapacityisprovidedbysmallrunoff-riverpowerstations.Transboundaryelectricitymarkets,bothinter-provincialandtheUSmarket,arelarge.Becausehydropowerisabundanthere,Canadaisabletosupportindustriesthatarebigenergyconsumers,likealuminumsmelters.Climatechangeimpactshydroelectricityproductionbymakingtheamountofwateravailablemoredifficulttopredictandcontrol.ImpactsofclimatechangeInCanada,climatechangemeanslessdemandforheatingduringthewinterandmoredemandforairconditioningduringthesummer.Adaptingtoclimate-relatedchangesinenergydemandandsupplyisachallengefortheenergysectoracrossCanada,wherethemainsourceofheatingisnaturalgasandoil,andthemainsourceofcoolingiselectricity.Specificvulnerabilitiesdependongeographicsetting,primaryenergysources,andprojectedchangesinclimate.
• Peaksummerdemandforcoolingmaycoincidewithdecreasedhydroelectricpotentialinsomeareas,resultinginshortsupply.
• Hydroelectricitygenerationmaybeaffectedbyseasonalreductionsinwatersupply,particularlyinglacier-fedsystems.Suchchangesintimingofflowandpeakeventswilllikelyrequireadjustmentsinreservoirmanagementpractices.
• Transmissionofelectricityissensitivetoweather:highertemperaturemeansgreaterenergylosses;andextremeweathercancauseinfrastructuredamage,leadingtodistributionproblems.
Possibleoutcomes• Changesinthedistributionoftheflowthroughouttheyearcouldpresentstructuralproblems
withdamsandreservoirsandresultinfloods.
• Improvementintheefficiencyofappliancesandequipmentcouldreducethedemandforelectricity.
• Warmersummerscouldincreasetheuseofairconditioningunits.
• CanadamayhavetheopportunitytoexportmoreelectricitytotheUSinthesummer,butthiswouldhavetobeweighedagainstthehigherdomesticdemand.
ExistingresearchIntheenergysector,climatechangeandhydroelectricityhavereceivedalotofattentionfromindustryandresearchers.
• MostCanadianresearchhasfocusedonthehydrologicalconsequencesofachangingclimate,suchasshiftinthetimingandamountofriverflows.Thiswillvarysignificantlybetweenregionsandwithindrainagebasins.
• Recentresearchhasexpandedtomulti-criteriaanalysis(consideringmanyaspectsatonce),whichinvolvesconsideringeconomic,political,social,andenvironmentalaspectsintheanalysisofpotentialadaptationmeasuresandtheircostsandbenefits.
Researchneeds• QuantitativeanalysesonwhetherCanadianutilitieswillbeabletorespondtotheexport
opportunityofhighersummerelectricitydemandintheUS
• Adaptationstrategiestointegrateperspectivesofdifferentwaterusers(e.g.industry,government,andresidential)andchangingresourcedemands
• Studiestakingintoaccounttheuncertaintyoffuturehydrologicalprojections
• Researchonnaturaladaptationmeasures,e.g.,therestorationofwetlandstoregulateflowduringtimesoflowandpeakflows
Collaborationamongcompanies,regulators,scientistsandotherstakeholderswillincreasethelikelihoodofadaptationtoclimatechange.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Energy”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.81.
Keyclimatechangeimpactsintheenergysector.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.79.
Stakeholder Profile 3: Canadian Agriculture and Food Industry Association OverviewFoodproductionisamajoreconomicdriverinCanada,withtheagriculturesectorcontributingbillionsofdollarstooureconomy.Intwoprovinces,PrinceEdwardIslandandSaskatchewan,agricultureprovidesmoreemploymentthananyothersector.Canada’sfoodsystemisasvariedasitsgeography.Foodproductionfromagriculturereliesmostlyonintensivecultureandharvestpractices.However,non-commercialfishing,hunting,gathering,andgardeningarealsoimportantsourcesoffood.ImpactofclimatechangeClimateaffectscropproductivity;animalproduction,virility,anddiseases;pollinatorhealth;andwateravailabilityandquality.WhileallofCanadawillbeaffectedbychangesintemperatureandprecipitation,theimpactswillnotbeuniformacrossthedifferentagriculturallandscapes.Therewillbedistinctissuesforfourregions.1. EasternandcentralCanada
• Floodingfromincreasedspringrunoffmayrequirebuildingsystemslikewetlandsforwaterretention.
• Increasedtemperaturewilllengthenthegrowingseasonbutwillalsoincreaseweedsandagriculturalpestsanddiseases.
• Livestockwillneedlessheatingbutmoreairconditioning.Heatwavescannegativelyimpactanimalhealth,butwarmerwinterscanhelpfattenlivestock.
2. Northernandremotecommunities
• Climatechangeisaffectingtheavailabilityandqualityofwildfoodsuchasberries,wildrice,andgameanimals.
• Iceconditionsarechanging(changeshuntingpatterns).
• Stormsaremoreintense(affectingwildfoodgathering).
3. Prairies
• WaterissuesrepresentthegreatestconcernforthePrairies.Reducedsummerrainfallandmorefrequentdroughtsmightrequiremoreirrigationforcropsandlivestock;however,otherpressuresmaylimittheabilitytoexpandirrigatedagriculture.
4. BritishColumbia
• Managementofwaterresourceswillbeachallengebecauseofreducedsummerstreamflows,reducedgroundwaterrecharge,andincreasingdemandsforwaterfromothersectors.
Possibleoutcomes
• Amodestincreaseinagriculturalfoodproduction
• Changesincropmanagementpractices
• Expansionofmaplesyrupindustrynorthward
• Shorterice-roadseasoninnortherncommunities,posingachallengetofoodtransporttoisolatedareas
• Longermarinetransportseasoninnorthernareas,tothebenefitofcoastalcommunitieswithportfacilities
• SealevelriseincoastalregionsofBritishColumbiacouldcausefloodingoffarmlandandaffectdrinkingandirrigationwater
• ImpactonB.C.wineries,orchards,andagri-tourismduetohigherriskofpests,fires,andsummerdrought
ExistingresearchStudieshavedemonstratedthatchangesintemperatureandprecipitationwillhaveimportanteffectsonagricultureinCanada,intensifyingexistingrisksandpresentingnewones.Thesechangeswillalsocreatenewopportunitiesforeachgeographicalregion.Researchneeds• Morestudiesinyieldpredictions(assumingthatcropproductivitycouldeitherincreaseordecrease
inachangingclimate)
• Studiestodevelopourunderstandingofcurrentclimatevariability
• Studiesthatlinkscientificandlocalknowledgetoinformwatermanagementdecisions
• Rearchanddevelopmentinirrigationtechnology
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Agriculture”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.
MapshowingtheagriculturalextentofCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.
Stakeholder Profile 4: Mining Association of Canada OverviewMiningcontributestotheeconomiesofallprovincesandterritories,insmallcommunitiesandlargecities.Thatsaid,thiseconomiccontributionfluctuates,dependingonthenumberofminesoperatingandthevalueofthecommodityproduced.TheCanadianminingsectoremployspeopleinmineralextraction,insmelting,infabrication,andinmanufacturing.AccordingtotheMiningAssociationofCanada,theindustryplanstoinvestheavilyinprojectsoverthenextfewyears;thismaybeanopportunitytomakeclimatechangeadaptationpartofminingactivitieslikemineralexploration,mineconstruction,operations,transportation,andmineclosure.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeaffectsallstagesintheminingcycle,includingplanning,currentandfutureoperations,andclosingmines.Studieshaveidentifiedseveralaspectsofminingoperationsthatarecurrentlyaffectedbychangingclimaticconditions,including:a)builtinfrastructure;b)transportationinfrastructure;c)extractionandprocessing;andd)dailyoperations.
• Extremeclimateevents(e.g.,torrentialrains)havealreadyexceededtheabilityofsomeminestooperateastheyweredesignedto.
• WarmerwintershaverenderedseasonaliceroadsintheNorthwestTerritorieslessreliablethaninthepast.
• Warm,dryconditionsincreasedustemissions,requiringmineoperatorstoemploydustcontrolmeasureslikewatersprayingandcoveredstorageareas.
• Dailyoperationsatminesitesaresensitivetoextremeweatherconditions,includingintenserainandsnowfall,flooding,drought,changingiceconditions,extremecold,andforestfires—allofwhichcanreduceoperationalcapacity.
Possibleoutcomes• ReductionsinArcticseaicecouldleadtonewopportunitiesforminingexplorationand
developmentintheNorth,relatedinparttolowershippingcosts.
• Decreasedviabilityofwinterroadscouldaffectaccesstomanynorthernminesites.
• Increasedprecipitationassociatedwithclimatechangeinsomeareacouldbenefitsomemineralsminingoperationsbyhelpingtocontroldustemissions.
• Toomuchprecipitationimpedesthedryingofminedmaterials,whichthenrequiresmoreenergy,resultinginhighercosts.
ExistingresearchThemajorityofavailableresearchonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationintheminingsectorfocusesonnorthernregions,onissuesincludingthefollowing:
• Permafrostintegrity• Wintertransportationnetworks• Watermanagement• ThepotentialforArcticseawaysasseaicemelts
ResearchneedsMoreresearchisneededonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationwithregardtominingoperationsinsouthernCanada.
• Studiesareneededonabandonedmininginfrastructurethatwasnotdesignedforthefullrangeofchangingclimaticconditions.Someofthesesitescouldposeseriousriskstotheenvironmentandthehealthofsurroundingcommunities.
• Decision-makersresponsiblefordesigning,building,maintaining,andretiringmininginfrastructureneedabetterunderstandingofthelikelyimpactsoffutureclimatechangesatminesites;andhowengineeringtechniquescanbeadoptedtomanagethesechanges.Availableclimatescenariosarenotadequatetohelpdecision-makingbymineoperators.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Mining”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.76.
Value(millionsofdollars)ofmineralproductionbyprovinceandterritory,2000and2010.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.77.
Stakeholder Profile 5: Tourism Industry Association of Canada OverviewTheWorldTravelandTourismCouncilforecastssteadygrowthinCanada’stourismsectorbetween2012and2022(anaverageof2.9percentperyear).Ourtourismindustryandourfederalandprovincialgovernmentsfeelthatmajortourismgrowthispossible,asinternationalarrivalsareprojectedtoincreaseto1.8billionby2030.Tourismiscloselylinkedtoweatherandthenaturalenvironment.Becauseofthis,climatechangeisanticipatedtohaveextensiveimpactsonthesustainabilityandcompetitivenessoftourismdestinationsandmajortourismmarketsegmentsaroundtheworld.RecentrankingsoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontourismworldwidehaveconsistentlyidentifiedCanadaasacountrywiththepotentialtoimproveitscompetitivepositionasaninternationaldestinationWhiletourismisanimportanteconomicdriverineveryregionofCanada,ithasevengreaterimportanceforsmallcommunitieslikeparkgatewaycommunities,“cottaging”districts,andmanyotherdestinations.Itrepresentsakeyeconomicrevitalizationstrategywheretraditionalresource-basedeconomieshavedeclined.ImpactsofclimatechangeAlonger“summer”tourismseason,andreduced“sunshinedestination”travelinwinterwouldbenefittheCanadiantourismsector.
• Parksystems:NationalandprovincialparksareamongCanada’smostrenownedtourismattractions.Withclimatechange,visitstotheseparkscouldincreaseacrossthecountry.Ifcurrentdemandpatternsremain,increaseswillbegreatestinAtlanticCanada,Ontario,andQuebec.
• Warm-weatherrecreation:Witheffectiveadaptation,majorwarm-weathertourismmarketsinCanadacouldbenefitfromprojectedclimatechange.Theprojectionoflongergolfseasonscouldreasonablybeextendedtothingslikewaterparks,themeparks,zoos,boating,fishing,andbeachrecreation.
• Winterrecreation:Adegradedandshortenedwintertourismseason,ontheotherhand,representsarisktotourisminmanypartsofCanada.Theskiindustrywilldependmoreonsnowmaking,andsnowmobilingcouldbelargelydecreasedinthefuture.
• Nature-basedtourism:InCanada’snorth,changingiceconditionsarelengtheningtheArcticcruiseseasonandallowingaccesstopreviouslyinaccessiblelocations.ThepolarbeartourismmarketinChurchill,Manitoba,willbethreatenedoverthenext20yearsbydecliningsea-iceconditionsonHudsonBay.Changesinbiodiversityandwildlifereproductionwilllikelyimpactsportfishing(e.g.,increasedrecreationalfishinginnorthernOntarioduetoincreasedwalleyeproductivity)andhunting(e.g.,moosehuntingwillshiftnorthward).
• “Lastchancetourism”:Climate-inducedenvironmentalchangehasgivenrisetothisnewmarket,wheretouristsvisitadestinationoranattractionbeforeitislosttoclimatechange.
Possibleoutcomes• Thetourismindustryappearstobewellpositionedtobenefitfromclimatechangeoverthe
shortterm.
• AlongercruisingseasoninArcticCanadacouldbenefitlocalresidentsthroughincreasedseasonalemployment.IncreasedtourismcouldalsogeneratemoreinterestinInuitart,cultureandtraditions.
• Changesinthefrequencyandmagnitudeofextremeevents(windstorms,floods,forestfires,etc.)willposeachallengetoparkagenciesintermsofinfrastructuredamage,visitorsafety,andbusinessinterruptions.
• Maintainingwaterqualitywillbechallenging(swimmingareas)andincreasedirrigation(golfcoursesforexample)willbedifficultinregionswithlimitedordecliningwaterresources.
CurrentresearchTherearealotofstudiesontheeffectsofclimatechangeonthetourismsector.TourismoperatorshaveimplementedawiderangeofadaptationstoallowthemtooperateineveryclimaticzoneinCanada.Butthesestrategieshavebeenalmostexclusivelytomanagetheimpactsofcurrentclimatechanges.Researchneeds
• Studiesonthewhethercurrentadaptationstrategieswillbesustainableinthelongterm,bothfinanciallyandenvironmentally
• Studiesontourists’responsestoclimate-relatedchangesintourismlandscapesinordertocreateeffectiveadaptationstrategies
• Studiesonhowtourismwillbeaffectedbytheinteractionbetweenclimatechangeandfactorslikefuelpricesandtransportationcosts,borderrestrictions,currencyfluctuations,internationalreputation,demographicandmarkettrends,etc.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135;andinChapter5ofCanada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.181.EconomiccontributionoftourisminCanadiancoastalprovincesandterritories.Source:Canada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.79.(AdaptedfromTourismIndustryAssociationofCanada,2012.)
Stakeholder Profile 6: Canadian Construction Association OverviewTheresidentialconstructionindustryinvolvesbothnewhousesandrenovations.Thesectoraccountsforapproximately6percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Growthisdrivenbylowlevelsofunemployment,lowinterestrates,andimmigration.TheCanadianHomeBuilder’sAssociationexpectsnewhomestartstobesteadyoverthenextfewyears,buttoincreaseinresponsetoimmigrationanddemographicpressures.Whennewresidentialhomesarebuilt,thereisanassumptionthattheclimatewillremainstatic.Butextremeweatherlinkedwithclimatechangecaneasilyexceedthedesignthresholdofthesestructuresandcausedamage.ThelatestIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportonextremeweatherconcludesthat“smallincreasesinclimateextremesabovethresholdsorregionalinfrastructuretippingpointshavethepotentialtoresultinlargeincreasesindamagestoallformsofexistinginfrastructurenationallyandtoincreasedisasterrisks.”ImpactsofclimatechangeAnalysisoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthehousingsectorlargelyfocusesontheriskslinkedwithdirectclimateimpacts,specificallyanincreaseinpropertydamagecausedbymoreintenseandfrequentextremeweather:
• Increaseinwaterdamagecausedbysewerbackupsandbasementfloodingafterintenserainfall• Increaseinbuildingdamagecausedbyincreaseinwindspeed• Increaseintheweatheringprocesscausedbygradualincreasesintemperatureand
precipitation
PossibleoutcomesPotentialindirectimpactsfromclimatechangeonresidentialhousingcouldincludethefollowing:
• Changesintheattitudesofhomebuyers(e.g.,increaseddemandforresilienthousing)• Increasedregulatorypressure(e.g.,changestobuildingcodes)• Increasedfinancialliability(e.g.,morestringentlendingorinsuranceconditions)• Increasedcostsofbuildingahomeifnewtechnologiesordesignpracticesareincorporated
Theseindirectimpactscouldhelpcreatecommercialincentivesforhomebuilderstoimplementadaptationmeasures.Formoststakeholdersinthehousingsector,climatechangeadaptationisanewconcern.Mitigationmeasureslikeimprovingenergyefficiencyarestillthemainfocusofresearchandpolicy.Inordertopromoteclimatechangeadaptation,multiplestakeholdersincludinghomebuilders,regulators,consumers,andthefinancialservicessectorshouldsupporttheuseofanumberoftoolsandpractices:
• Buildingcodes:updatethesebasedonfutureweathertrends• Land-useplanning:buildhomesinareasprotectedfromthehazardsofextremeweatherevents
(e.g.,avoidfloodplains)• Retrofitsforexistinghomes:improvetheresiliencyofexistinghomestoextremeweather• Financingadaptation(homebuilders):expandconstructionbudgetsandwarrantyprogram
ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemands.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts,withonlylimitedinformationavailableonindirectimpacts.
Researchneeds• Researchonindirectimpactsofclimatechange• Moreinformationforhomebuildersaboutthelocalclimatechangeriskssotheyaremotivated
toimplementadaptiveactions• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofretrofitsandbuildingcodechanges• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofchangingdesignstoimproveresiliencetoclimaterisks• Capacitytodevelopappropriateadaptationsolutions,suchasnewdesigntechniquesand
technologies• Collaborationbetweenbuildingscientists,theinsuranceindustry,andhomebuilders
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“ResidentialConstruction”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.149.
Externalstakeholders’roleinpromotingadaptationinresidentialhousingmarket.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.150.
Stakeholder Profile 7: Insurance Bureau of Canada OverviewInsurancecompanieshavetheninth-largestincomeofCanada’s22industries(StatisticsCanada,2012a).Insuranceincludesanumberofdifferentsub-sectorsincludinglifeinsurance,healthinsurance,andpropertyinsurance.Someinsurancesectors,suchaslifeinsurance,donotcurrentlyappearsensitivetovariationintheweather.However,propertyinsurance,andtoalesserextentautoinsurance,experiencesignificantswingsincostsandearningswithweathervariation.Infact,weatherdamageclaimshaverecentlyemergedasthelargestexpenseforpropertyinsurancecompaniesinCanada.DamagetohomesandbusinessescausedbysevereweatherhasbeenincreasingforseveraldecadesinCanadaandelsewherearoundtheglobe(in2011,theCanadianinsuranceindustrypaidoutarecord$1.7billionforpropertydamageclaimslinkedtoweatherevents).Infact,lossanddamageduetointenserainfall,hurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andwinterstormshaverecentlygrowntosurpassfireandtheft.Theincreaseprimarilyinvolvesbasementflooddamageclaims.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeandthepotentialincreaseinthefrequencyofsevereweatherhaveemergedasasignificantpriorityforpropertyinsurers.
• IntenseraincanoverwhelmCanada’sagingurbansewersystemsandcausedamagestohomesandbusinesses.
• WarmingmayincreasetheseverityofAtlantichurricanes,resultinginmoreclaimsfordamagefromwindandheavyrain.
• Anincreaseintheseverityofsummerstorms(e.g.,tornadoes,hailstorms,lightningevents)couldincreasedamagesandlosses.
• Morelargewildfireswouldaddtotheriskoffiredamageincommunitiesontheedgeofforestland.
Possibleoutcomes• Insurerscoulduseadaptiveactions(e.g.,adjustingwhattheycover,raisingprices)toprotect
themselvesagainstcostscausedbyextremeweather.• Insurancepriceincreasescouldmakeratesunaffordable,andregulatoryinterventionsmayforce
reductions.• Insurerscouldofferlowerratestoindustriesandpropertyownerswhoinvestinclimatechange
adaptation.• Adaptivemeasurescouldresultfromcollaborationbetweeninsurersandstakeholderswith
influenceoverinfrastructureandbuildingcodes.ExistingresearchCanadianandinternationalstudiesondevelopingadaptiveactions,likeadjustmentstocoverageandpriceincreases,areavailablefortheinsurancesector.
Researchneeds• Estimatesofthecontributionofclimatechangetothecostofclaimsthathavebeenpaidby
insurersinCanada
• Studiesonhowinsurerscouldpartnerwithuniversities,governments,homebuilders,andconsumerstopromoteadaptiveactions
• Developmentofdemonstrationhomeswithfeaturesthatgobeyondbuildingcodestopreventdamagefromhurricanesandintenserainfall
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.
InsuredlossesfromextremeweathereventsinCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.143.
Stakeholder Profile 8: Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters OverviewManufacturingisCanada’slargestandmostdiverseindustrialsector.Severaltensofthousandsofcompaniesparticipateinthesector,includinglargeinternationalcompaniesandmanymid-sizeandsmallerones.Thissectorhasexperiencedsignificantchallengesinrecentyearsduetotheglobaleconomiccrisis,thelowCanadiandollar,andweaknessinexportmarkets.Mostmanufacturershaveexperiencedsomedisruptionsfromsevereweatherevents,suchasdelaysinsecuringcriticalsupplies,challengesinmakingdeliveriesontime,anddisruptionsfrompowerfailures.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangecanhavearangeofphysicalimpactsonthemanufacturingsector.Changesintheenvironmentcanlimittheavailabilityofcertainkeymanufacturinginputs,suchaswaterortimber,therebyincreasingcostsformanufacturers.
• Forestfires,pests,diseases,andchanginggrowthpatternscoulddecreaseforestproductivity,whichinturncouldincreasecostsformanufacturingproducts(e.g.,woodproductsforconstruction,pulpandpaper).
• Watershortagesareariskforindustrialprocessesthatusewaterforcooling,irrigation,cleaning,orrefiningrawmaterials.
• Highertemperaturesandhumiditycandecreaseworkers’productivityandincreasehealthrisks.
• Extremeweathercanalsodisruptoperationsbydamaginginfrastructureandinterruptingsupplychains.Forexample,anAtlantichurricanecoulddisruptvitaltransportationofmaterialsandshutdownsupplierplantsinsouthernOntario.
PossibleoutcomesChangesinconsumerdemandsandpreferences—duetoclimatechangeitselfaswellasincreasingenvironmentalawareness—presentindirectopportunitiesandrisksforseveralareasofmanufacturing.
• Milderwintersandwarmersummersmayincreasethedemandforcertainconsumerproductsanddecreaseitforothers.
• Areasofmanufacturingthataregreenhouse-gas-intensivecouldfacerisksasconsumersstartbuyingproductsthataremoreenergy-efficient.
ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemand.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts.AndstudiesonclimatechangeandtheCanadianmanufacturingsectoralmostexclusivelyaddressmitigationactions(actionstoreduceenergyuseortoreducegreenhousegasemissions).
Researchneeds• Studiesthatdocumentindirectclimateimpacts(e.g.,changesinconsumerdemand)• Studiesthatdocumentclimatechangeimpacts,risks,andopportunities• Studiesonthecostsandbenefitsofadaptationasabusinessstrategy(e.g.,buyinginsuranceto
coverlossesanddamage,environmentalmanagementatmanufacturingsitestodealwithwaterissuesorweatherextremes,usingseveralsuppliersorhavingseparateproductionfacilitiestoreducedisruptioninthesupplychain,producingsurplusesofthosegoodsthatfrequentlygetdisrupted)
• Accuratecost-benefitanalysisofusingadaptationstrategiestoprotectsupplychainswhen,forexample,extremeweathereventsdisrupttransportationofmaterials
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.
Stakeholder Profile 9: Biodiversity OverviewCanadaishometomajorportionsoftheworld’spolarregionsandtundra,borealandtemperateforests,grasslands,andaquaticecosystems.ThelatterincludetheGreatLakesaswellasterritorialwatersinthePacific,Arctic,andAtlanticoceans.Theseecosystemscontainabout10percentoftheworld’sforestsand20percentoftheworld’sfreshwater.Theyprovidenichespaceformorethan70,000speciesofmammals,birds,reptiles,amphibians,fish,invertebrates,plants,andotherorganisms.Biodiversitymeansthevarietyofspeciesandecosystems,andtheecologicalprocessestheyarepartof.Itcontributestocleanerairandwater,climateregulation,carbonstorage,pollination,andfloodregulation.Humansbenefitfrombiodiversityas,forexample,asourceoffood,fibre,materialsforclothing,timber,andrecreationalopportunities.Biodiversityisvitaltoeconomicsectorssuchasagricultureandtourism.Anditisvitalduringperiodsofrapidenvironmentalchange.ImpactsofclimatechangeEvidencethatCanada’sbiodiversityisunderincreasingpressurefromclimatechangecontinuestogrow.Someimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyevident.
• ImpactsonArcticspecieswillinvolvehabitatloss,competitionfromspeciesmigratingnorthward,andthearrivalofnewdiseasesandparasitesfromthesouth.
• Impactsonspeciesdistribution,abundance,physiology,andlifecycletimingwillalterecologicalrelationshipsandhabitats.
• Coastalandestuaryecosystemsareatriskfromerosion,whichcouldeliminatehabitatforsomespecies.
• Drierconditionsinprairieecosystemswilllikelydecreaseproductivityinnaturalgrasslands.• Astheclimatewarms,habitatscouldcontractorbecomeincreasinglyfragmented.• Climatechangeimpactsonwaterquantityandqualityareaconcernforlakesandriversacross
Canada.• InHudsonBay,thenumbersanddistributionofsealsandpolarbearscorrelatewithashorter
seaiceseasonandhigherwatertemperatures.Thesameistrueforanumberoffishspecies.• Increasesinwildfires,insectoutbreaks,anddroughtswillresultinlossofold-growthforests.• Innorthernandalpineregions,therapidmeltingofglacierswillchangeriverandstreamflows.
Thiswillaffectdownstreamaquaticecosystems,aswellaswatersuppliesformanytownsandcities.
PossibleoutcomesCurrentevidenceindicatesthattherangeformanyspecieswilllikelyshiftnorthwardinresponsetowarmingtemperatures.Thiswouldhavemajorimplicationsforpeoplewhorelyonthecurrentconfigurationofecosystems.
• ManybirdspeciesthatcurrentlybreedinthenortheasternUnitedStatesarelikelytomovenorthwardintoCanada,increasingbirdspeciesrichnessinEasternCanada.
• ClimatechangemayincreasebiodiversityinsouthernQuebecduringthiscenturyasspeciesmovenorthward.
• Thesouthernedgeofspeciesrangeislikelytocontractinresponsetoshiftingclimate.• TheWestNilevirusandLymediseaseinhumanscouldexpandtheirdistributionswithchanging
climate.
ExistingresearchMostworktodatehasfocusedontheeffectsofclimatechangeonindividualspecies.Asfortheeffectsofclimatechangeonbiodiversity,therehasbeenarangeofadaptationrecommendationsaimedatmaintainingorrestoringbiodiversity.Theseincludeimprovedinstitutionalcoordination(e.g.,government,universities,industry,andenvironmentalorganizations),inclusionofspatialandtemporal(setintime)perspectives,andintegratedcoordinationofclimatechangescenariosintoplanningandactionrelatedtoecosystemmanagement.Researchneeds
• Studiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonspeciespatternsandresponseofspeciesgroups• Studiesofecologicalrelationships,whichwillhelpusunderstandtheimpactsofclimatechange
onhowecosystemsfunction• Studiesoftheinfluenceofotherfactors,suchascompetitionandpredation,onpopulation
distributionandabundance• Studiesoftheeffectoflocalizedmicroclimatesandextinctionrisks
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Biodiversity”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.159.
Projectedchangefromthepresentto2071–2100inthedistributionsofBritishColumbiaecologicalzones,withbunchgrasscommunitiesandponderosapineforestsbecomingmorecommonthantoday,whilealpinetundramaydisappear.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.167.
Stakeholder Profile 10: Transportation Association of Canada OverviewTransportationservicesaccountfor4.2percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Dependabletransportationnetworksarecriticaltoawiderangeofeconomicandsocialsectors.Transportisverysensitivetoclimate,andtherearemanyexamplesoftransportationdisruptionsrelatedtoweathereventsandseasonalconditions.Theclimatesensitivityoftransportationsystemsisreflectedindesignandconstructionstandards,spending,andmobilityandsafetyoutcomes.Well-maintainedinfrastructure(e.g.,roads,railways,bridges)ismoreresilienttoachangingclimate.Thisisespeciallytruewhenitcomestogradualchangesintemperatureandprecipitationpatterns:inmanycases,thesecanbeaddressedthroughregularmaintenanceandnormalupgradecyclesoradjustmentstothewayasystemisoperatedormaintained.Infrastructureisdesignedtoprovideservicesoveritslifetime—anywherefrom10to100years—andmustbeadaptedovertimetomeetchangingcircumstances(e.g.,changesintechnology,society,andbusiness).ImpactsofclimatechangeImpactsofclimatechangeareassociatedwithextremeweatherevents(e.g.,heatwaves,heavyrainfall)aswellasmoregradualchanges(e.g.,permafrostthaw,highertemperatures,sea-levelrise,anddecliningwaterlevelsinfreshwatersystems).Climatechangepresentsarangeofchallengesforinfrastructuredesign,construction,operation,andmaintenance.ItisrecognizedasafactorthatneedstobeconsideredasCanadastrivestomaintainandimproveexistinginfrastructure.
• Disruptionfromextremeevents(e.g.,floods,fire,storms)isthemainclimateconcernwithrespecttotransportation.
• Morefrequentandlongerheatwavescouldresultinpavementsoftening,railbuckling,andcargooverheating.
• Railwaysystemscouldbeimpactedbyflooding,erosion,landslides,andfires.• Thenorthernregionsarevulnerabletochangingclimateinanumberofways.Theyrelyona
combinationoficeroads,bargetransport,airservices,andlimitedrailaccessforcommercialactivitiesandcommunitysupply.
• Incoastalcommunities,transportinfrastructureisvulnerabletotheintensityandfrequencyofstormevents,whichcancausestorm-surgefloodingandsubmergence.
• WarmertemperaturescouldmeanlowerwaterlevelsintheGreatLakessystem,affectingtheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,amajorinternationalshippingroute.
Possibleoutcomes
• Freezingrainevents—aswellassequenceslikerainonfreezingrain,orrainonsnow—arelikelytoincreaseinsouth-centralCanadaandwillposeriskstotransportation.
• Inlightofthewarmingtrend,therewillbeaneedtoreconsiderroaddesignandtousedifferentmaterials,especiallyintruckingcorridors.
• ForeachcentimetredecreaseinwaterlevelintheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,shipcapacitywoulddecreasebysixcontainers,or60tons(TransportsQuébec,2012).
ExistingresearchTheworkofthePublicInfrastructureEngineeringVulnerabilityCommittee(PIEVC)hasbroadenedourunderstandingofhowtoadaptCanada’sinfrastructuretoclimatechange.UsingthePIEVC’srisk-basedassessmentprotocol,engineersandplannerscanviewandaddressclimatechangeasonefactoramongmanythataffectssystemresiliency—andplanaccordingly.Researchneeds
• Furtherassessmentofcurrentandfutureclimateriskstoinfrastructuresystemsisrequired.Thiswouldtheninformadjustmentstodesigncodesandstandardstoaddressfutureclimate.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“TransportationInfrastructure”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.233.Summary Date ReferenceWinterroadsinManitobaturnintoquagmires 3-Jan-12 CTVNews(2012)
Flightscancelledduetolowvisibilityandfog 17-Jan-12 PtashnickandHayes(2012)
Rainfall-inducedundergroundslidecreatessinkhole200mwidex5mdeeponHwy83inManitoba
3-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012c)
Icebuild-upinE.Arcticdamagesshipandcausesdelayinunloadingsealifts
29-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012d).
Wawainastateofemergencyduetorunofffromrain.Totaldamage>$10milliondollars
27-Oct-12 MetroNews(2012)
HurricaneSandycausesflightcancellationsinAtlanticCanada 29-Oct-12 TheTelegram(2012)
TheTrans-CanadaHwyinNewfoundlandclosedduetodamagefromalandslide
19-Nov-12
CBCNews(2012e)
SailingsfromVancouverIslandcancelledduetowinds,waveheightandseaconditions
19-Dec-12
Lavoie(2013)
RecordsnowfallaffectstransportinsouthernQuebec 27-Dec-12
RadioCanada(2012)
VIARailusesthe"snowfighter"toclearthetraintracksduringsnowstorms
24-Jan-13 Pinsonneault(2013)
RoadsclosedinNorthwesternOntarioasdriftingandblowingsnowimpactedhighwaysstillaffectedbyfreezingrain
30-Jan-13 CBCNews(2013a).
Roadandmarinetraveldelayedbywinterweather 18-Feb-13
NationalPost(2013a)
BargesupplytowesternArcticinterruptedbyice 3-Sep-13 CBCNews(2013c)
Examplesofweather-transportationnewsstoriesfrom2012–2013.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.244.
Stakeholder Profile 11: Health and Social Well-Being OverviewClimatechangeposessignificantriskstohumanhealthandwell-being,withimpactsfromextremeweathereventsandnaturalhazards;fromairqualityandstratosphericozonedepletion;andfromwater-,food-,vector-,androdent-bornediseases.Inrecentyears,greatereffortshavebeenmadetoprepareforthesehealthimpactsbypublichealthofficials,emergencymanagementofficials,andnon-governmentalorganizations.AlthoughallCanadiansareatriskfromthehealthimpactsofclimatechange,somegroupshavebeenidentifiedasbeingmorevulnerable.Theseincludeseniors,childrenandinfants,thesociallyandeconomicallydisadvantaged,thosewithchronicdiseasesandcompromisedimmunesystems,aboriginalpeople,andresidentsofnorthernandremotecommunities.ImpactsofclimatechangeInthepast10years,strongerevidencehasemergedthatawiderangeofclimate-relatedimpactsareofpublic-healthconcerninCanada.1. Airquality
• Increasedairpollution,i.e.,higherlevelsofground-levelozoneandairborneparticulatematter,includingsmokeandparticulatesfromwildfires
• Increasedproductionofpollensandsporesbyplants2. Foodandwaterquality
• Increasedcontaminationofdrinkingwaterandrecreationalwaterbyrunofffromheavyrainfall• Changesinmarineenvironmentsthatresultinalgalbloomsandhigherlevelsoftoxinsinfishandshellfish
• Behaviouralchangesduetowarmertemperaturesresultinginanincreasedriskoffood-andwater-borneinfections(e.g.,throughlongerbarbecueandswimmingseasons)
3. Infectiousdiseasestransmittedbyinsects,ticks,androdents• Changesinthebiologyandecologyofvariousdisease-carryinginsects,ticks,androdents(includinggeographicaldistribution)
• Fastermaturationforthepathogenscarriedbyinsectsandticks• Longerdiseasetransmissionseason
4. Stratosphericozonedepletion• Withawarmerclimate,increasedhumanexposuretoultravioletradiationduetobehaviouralchanges
Possibleoutcomes• Heat-relatedillnessesanddeaths• Possiblechangedpatternsofillnessanddeathduetocolderconditionsinsomeregions• Increasedriskofcardiovasculardiseases(e.g.,heartattacks,ischemicheartdisease)• Respiratorydisorders;irritationofeyes,noseandthroat;andshortnessofbreath• Exacerbationofallergies• Food-andwater-borneillnessesandotherdiarrhealandintestinaldiseases• Possibleemergenceofnewinfectiousdiseases• Morecasesofsunburns,skincancers,cataracts,andeyedamage
• Variousimmunedisorders• Healthandmental-healthimpactsinaboriginalandnortherncommunitiesifenvironmental
changesaffecttheirlivelihood,relationshipwiththeland,andculture
ExistingresearchCanadaisaheadofmanydevelopedcountriesineffortstoprotecthealthfromclimatechange,accordingtoacomparisonlistedintheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.Canadaisparticularlystrongonresearchintotheimpactsofclimatechangeandadaptationoptionsinthehealthsector,thecomparisonshows.Itisalsooneofthefewcountriestorecognizetheparticularvulnerabilitiesofindigenousgroupsanddevelopspecificadaptationoptions.Publichealthofficialsandresearchersarefocusingonsomenewadaptationareasoffocus:
• Vulnerabilityassessmentsofhigh-riskpopulations• Actionstoaddresspsychosocialimpactsofclimatehazards,andothersecondaryhealtheffects• Newadaptivetechnologiesthatindividualscanuse(e.g.,devicesincarstowarnofwaterdepth,
landslideearly-detectionsystems)• Planningmeasuresforhealth-carefacilitiestohelpthemmanageemergencies• Preventativemeasures,likegreenroofstoreducetheurbanheatisland
Researchneeds• Researchonhowdampnessandtemperatureaffectmaterialsinbuildingsandthusindoorair
quality• Researchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonfoodandwatersecurityinthevariousregionsof
Canada• Researchonthecapacityandpreparednessofwaterutilitiestoadapttoclimatechange• Basicandappliedresearchstudieswithrespecttodiseasesurveillance,prevention,andcontrol• Longitudinalstudiesacrossdifferentdemographicgroups(children,elderly,urban,rural,
outdoorworkers)toidentifyhealthimpactsfromslow-developinghazards(e.g.,drought)andthecumulativeeffectsofclimatechange(e.g.,extremeheat,drought,wildfires)
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