Stability Study on Belize

08 Fall

Mercyhurst College Country Study Courses: INTL501 and INTL510 Instructors: D. Wozneak and J. Breckenridge Author: David Krauza 08-‐November-‐2011

Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle

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Table of Contents Annex 1: Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle 2

Annex 2: Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP) 4

Annex 3: Link Analysis 17

Annex 4: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Analysis

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Annex 4a: IPB Image 21

Annex 5: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 22

Annex 5a: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart 25

Annex 5b: Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

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Annex 6: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Analysis 34

Annex 7: Analyst Contact Information 37

Title Page Sources: Belize Coat of Arms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Coat_of_arms_of_Belize.svg Belize Location: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/Bh_large_locator.gif Belize Panorama: http://mybelizeexperience.com/about-belize/360-panorama-of-turneffe-islands-beach/

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Annex: 1 Belize: Stability Amidst Struggle

Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in 24 months primarily for political and geographic reasons. It is unlikely that any party will attempt to take power by undemocratic means in the next two years due to Belize’s strong democratic tradition. Current relations with the US are likely to remain stable over the next 24 months. The US and Belize are almost certain to work together to combat drug trafficking during the next two years. Another factor contributing to stability is the terrain of Belize. It is highly likely the jungle, swamps, mountains, and barrier reef islands will prevent a foreign power from invading. Violent crime has been increasing in Belize over the past 10 years and it is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Belize’s recently ratified ninth constitutional amendment, which limits court challenges to certain actions taken by parliament, is unlikely to be a source of instability in the next 24 months. Discussion: The strong democratic traditions in Belize and membership in the British Commonwealth are likely to ensure stability over the next 24 months. The Belize Constitution guarantees universal suffrage, presumption of innocence in a criminal trial, freedom of religion, and freedom of speech. Since Belize gained independence from the UK in 1981 whenever a transition of power has occurred between the two major parties, it has always occurred peacefully1. According to Jane’s Sentinel Security assessment the next round of elections scheduled for 2013 is not expected to provoke major social or political controversies. If Belizeans become dissatisfied with their government it is highly likely they will change leadership through the ballot box. The aid provided by the US to Belize is likely to be a stabilizing factor since the US has a strong interest in eliminating Belize as a drug transshipment point. Since 2008 the US has provided Belize about 15 million USD in security assistance, including boats and other vehicles, communications gear and training programs2. The US Military Liaison Office (MLO) working with the Belize Defense Force (BDF) provided the necessary funding to establish the Belize Coast Guard in 20053. The US Government also provided a 300,000 USD donation to the Belize Coast Guard in 2011 to help combat drug traffickers operating off the Belize coast4.

Image 1.1: Belize Coast Guard Vessel purchased with US aid Source: sanpedrosun.net

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It would be unlikely a foreign military would conduct operations in no go areas. Thick jungle and swamps generally characterize no go regions. The region has very few passable roads that a foreign military would need if they were invading Belize. The barrier reef off Belize’s coast in the Caribbean Sea are a no go area for a foreign navy. It is unlikely a foreign navy would attempt to conduct an invasion of Belize by sea due to the limited avenues of approach created by the barrier reef islands.

Increasing violence in Belize is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Since 2003 Belize’s murder rate per capita has roughly doubled, it is now the fifth highest in the

Western Hemisphere. The increase in murder is associated with the increased use of Belize as a drug transshipment point by Mexican and Columbian drug cartels

It is highly unlikely over the next 24 months parliament will use the ninth amendment to co-opt the democratic process that has been in place. Recently, the ninth amendment to the Belize constitution was ratified. The amendment limits court challenges to certain laws passed by parliament.

Comments: The sources used in this analysis are from official government and public news sources inside and outside of the target country. New information was incorporated into this estimate as it became available to provide the most accurate and up-to-date research. The author made every effort available to corroborate information with multiple sources. Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8 1 http://www.global-travel.co.uk/aboutbelize.htm 2 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/mexican-drug-cartels-reach-into-tiny-belize/2011/09/28/gIQA4lxzbL_story.html 3 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm 4 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/55336

Image 1.2: Picture of the Jungle Terrain of Belize Source: backgrounds.picaboo.com

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Annex: 2 Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP)

Belize ICP Report Created By: David Krauza

Purpose Source Name Title ID Type of Source Intelligence Type Periodicity Utility Time Source Reliability Comments

All @Belizean Twitter Feed @Belizean 1 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 Twitter feed with Belize news run by Manolo Romero (http://twitter.com/#!/BELIZEAN)

@officialBelize Twitter Feed @officialBelize 2 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 The official twitter account for Belize. A suspicious claim given this is not a verified account (http://twitter.com/#!/officialBelize)

BBC News BBC World News Service 4 Online News Source Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 BBC World News Service (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/latin_america/)

Belize News Post Belize News Post Newspaper 5 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 8 General newspaper reporting on Belizean news items (http://belizenewspost.com/)

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Belizean Blog Belizean Blog 6 Blog Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 Blog aimed at providing independent news about Belize from Belize (http://www.worldpress.org/link.cfm?http://www.belizean.com/)

Channel 5 News Channel 5 News 76 Online News Source Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 News Channel in Belize (http://edition.channel5belize.com/)

Channel 7 News Belize Channel 7 in Belize 7 Online News Source Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Local news channel in Belize City (http://www.7newsbelize.com/index.php)

CNN.com CNN 16 Online News Source Open Source Daily Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides daily news and events occurring in Belize and Latin America (www.cnn.com). Belize coverage was limited

EBSCO Host Online Database EBSCO:Accessed from Mercyhurst Library 18 Research Center Open Source As Needed Useful 9:00 AM 9 Provides access to academic and other journals (http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/selectdb?sid=711b1f8f- 9b00-4a5f-9819-5e6f5244a6c5%40sessionmgr13&vid=1&hid=25)

Expat Blog US Expat Blog:Belize 8 Online Forum Open Source Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 6 Blog written by US Expats living and working in Belize (http://www.expat-blog.com/en/directory/central- america/belize/)

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Exxun Exxun 75 Institutional Website Open Source As Needed Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides reports on military, political, social, geography, technology, and political aspects of Belize (http://www.exxun.com/e44search.html?cx=007600688217835768708%3A4vkfu6ri7lq&cof=FORID%3A9 &ie=UTF-8&q=Belize&sa=Search&siteurl=www.exxun.com%2F#860)

Google Alerts: Belize Google Alerts:Politics, Geography, Economics, Social, Technology and Military 9 Online News Source Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Summary of news articles update the news feed in Google Reader

Government of Belize Portal Government of Belize 20 Government Website Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 Provides access to important information about the Government of Belize, including all branches of the Government. Will be biased towards the Government point of view. (http://www.belize.gov.bz/). The site is poorly designed and finding some information was very difficult

Lexis-Nexus Alerts: Belize Lexis-Nexis 10 Research Center Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 8 Daily news feeds related to Belize

Library of Congress US Government:Library of Congress 67 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 8 LOC contains many resources for researching the stability of Belize (www.loc.gov)

New York Times NYT 15 Online News Paper Open Source Daily Not Useful 9:00 AM 7 Provides daily news on events occurring in Belize and Latin America (www.nytimes.com). Coverage of Belize was limited

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RAND Corporation RAND Corporation 73 Research Center Open Source Daily Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Research reports on various issues in Belize including Politics, Social, Economy, Military, Political and Technology (http://www.rand.org/search.html#eyJxdWVyeSI6ImJlbGl6ZSJ9)

San Pedro Daily San Pedro Daily 11 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 8 Daily synopsis of news related to San Pedro and Ambergris Caye. This newspaper will provide a perspective on news and events outside of major cities. (http://sanpedrodaily.com/)

Staff at Belize Embassy Belize Embassy:HUMINT 3 Personal Interview HUMINT Once Not Useful 9:00 AM 7 I will attempt to email and/or phone calls to staff at Belize Embassy in Washington, DC. I do not have a lot of confidence they will be receptive to my inquiries. (202-332-9636).

Stratfor Stratfor 12 Research Center Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 7 Provides research and analysis regarding news and events in Belize. (www.stratfor.com). Statfor's analysis of Belize was limited

The CIA World Fact Book Central Intelligence Agency 17 Government Website Open Source As Needed Highly Useful 9:00 AM 9 Provides basic information on Belize (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/geos/bh.html)

The Economist The Economist 13 Online News Source Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 9 Weekly international affairs magazine based on London England (www.economist.com)

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The Reporter The Reporter 14 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 Independent Newspaper in Belize. It should be more reliable than the official party newspapers. (http://www.reporter.bz/)

US State Department Bureau of Consular Affairs US Dept of State 19 Government Website Open Source As Needed Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides important information for travelers heading for Belize (http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1055.html)

Wall Street Journal WSJ.com 66 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 8 Wall Street Journal is a national newspaper reporting on current news and events published in the United States (ww.wsj.com)

Economics @belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat 21 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 6 Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

@REMAXBelize Twitter Feed @REMAXBelize 22 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 7 Twitter feed maintained the real estate company REMAX. Discusses issues with real estate prices, real estate sales, weather affecting real estate (http://twitter.com/#!/REMAXBelize). Primarily a sales tool for REMAX agents in Belize

Amandala Online Amandala Online Newspaper 24 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/)

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Belize Business Law Blog Belize Business Law Blog 23 Blog HUMINT Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Blog about opening and operating a business in Belize (http://belizebusinesslaw.com/belize-business-law- blog/)

Belize Times Belize Times Newspaper 25 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/)

Embassy of Belize Website Embassy of Belize:Open Source 26 Government Website Open Source Monthly Useful 9:00 AM 7 The official web site of the Belize Embassy in Washington, DC (http://www.embassyofbelize.org/)

International Monetary Fund Website IMF 27 Research Center Open Source Monthly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides economic and financial data on Belize. (http://www.imf.org/external/country/blz/index.htm)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) OECD 28 Research Center Open Source Monthly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides information on the economy, taxation and Belize's status as a tax haven (http://www.oecd.org/newinfobycountry/0,3760,en_2649_201185_1_70312_1_1_1,00.html)

The (El) Guardian El Guardian Newspaper 29 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/)

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US Trade and Development Agency USTDA 71 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides information on foreign aid provided by the US Government to foreign powers (www.ustda.gov)

World Bank World Bank 74 Institutional Website Open Source Weekly Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides research reports on the economy of Belize (http://search.worldbank.org/all?qterm=Belize)

Geography @REMAXBelize Twitter Feed @REMAXBelize 30 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 8 Twitter feed maintained the real estate company REMAX. Discusses issues with real estate prices, real estate sales, weather affecting real estate (http://twitter.com/#!/REMAXBelize)

@tacogirl Twitter Feed @tacogirl: Geo 31 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Not Useful 9:00 AM 6 Twitter feed from a expat living in San Pedro (http://twitter.com/#!/tacogirl)

Belize Ag Report Belize Ag Report 33 Online News Source Open Source Monthly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Publication on agricultural events in Belize (http://www.belizeagreport.com/)

Coolirsi Cooliris 35 Institutional Website IMINT As Needed Highly Useful 9:00 AM 9 The website has images of Belize's terrain and cities. (www.cooliris.com)

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Google Earth/Google Maps Google Earth 36 Institutional Website IMINT As Needed Highly Useful 9:00 AM 10 Displays current satellite images of Belize. Google Earth is an installed piece of software and can be found at www.google.com/earth. Google Maps is the online counterpart found at (http://maps.google.com)

La Vida Loca La Vida Loca: Germans: Geo 32 Blog HUMINT Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 6 Blog by German Expats who have moved to Belize. There is a concern that the authors of the blog could shading their reports with a Euro-Centric view (http://goto-belize.blogspot.com/)

The Weather Channel Weather.com 34 Institutional Website Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 9 Provides reports on current and predicted weather for Belize. (www.weather.com)

Military Belize Times Belize Times 37 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/)

GlobalSecurity.org Global Security 40 Online News Source Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides analysis on military news and events (www.GlobalSecurity.org)

Janes Janes:Military 38 Research Center Open Source Monthly Highly Useful 9:00 AM 10 Janes Sentinel Country Risk Review: Belize (www.janes.com)

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The (El) Guardian El Guardian 39 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the United Democratic Party (UDP). The newspaper will be biased towards the UDP's viewpoint. (http://www.guardian.bz/)

Political @belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat 41 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 6 Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

Amandala Online Amandala:Political 43 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/)

Belize Times Belize Times:Political 44 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/)

Embassy of Belize Website Embassy of Belize 45 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 7 The official web site of the Belize Embassy in Washington, DC (http://www.embassyofbelize.org/)

Janes Janes:Political 46 Research Center Open Source Monthly Highly Useful 9:00 AM 10 Janes Sentinel Country Risk Review: Belize (www.janes.com)

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KREM FM KREM FM in Belize City 51 Online News Source SIGINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 6 Provides a live webstream of music, news and information. Radio station is based in Belize City. (http://www.krembz.com/)

Official Opposition Party Official Opposition:PUP 42 Personal Interview HUMINT Once Useful 9:00 AM 5 I will email the official opposition party (PUP) for a comment on issues facing Belize. I do not have a great deal of confidence that I will receive a response in a timely fashion.

People's United Party (PUP) Website PUP 47 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 5 Website of the official opposition party in the National Assembly. The site will be biased towards PUP's point of view. (http://www.pup.org.bz/)


The United Democratic Party (UDP) Website UDP 49 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 5 This is the website of the political party that currently holds power in Belize. It will be biased towards the UDP point of view. (http://www.udp.org.bz/)

transparency.org Transparency 50 Institutional Website Open Source As Needed Highly Useful 9:00 AM 9 Provides reports on corruption in various nations including Belize (www.transparency.org)

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Social @belize_chat Twitter Feed @belize_chat 52 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Useful 9:00 AM 6 Twitter feed that aims to bring Belizeans together via chat (http://twitter.com/#!/belize_chat)

@tacogirl Twitter Feed @tacogirl:Social 53 Online News Source HUMINT Daily Not Useful 9:00 AM 6 Twitter feed from a expat living in San Pedro (http://twitter.com/#!/tacogirl)

Amandala Online Amandala 55 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Highly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Daily online newspaper in Belize reporting on Politics, Crime, Education, and Sports. The paper also offers editorial commentary (http://www.amandala.com.bz/)

Belize Ministry of Health Ministry of Health 61 Government Website Open Source As Needed Not Useful 9:00 AM 7 Official Government Ministry website. Source may "gloss over" issues that portray Belize in a negative light (http://health.gov.bz/www/)

Belize Times Belize Times 56 Online Newspaper Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 5 Official Newspaper of the People's United Party (PUP). One of the oldest newspapers in Belize. Source will be biased towards the PUP point of view. (http://www.belizetimes.bz/)

insight Crime insightcrime.org 57 Research Center Open Source Daily Useful 9:00 AM 9 Research organization focusing on organized crime issues in Central America. There are a few reports on crime issues in Belize. 9http://insightcrime.org/component/k2/itemlist/search?searchword=belize&x=0&y=0)

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La Vida Loca La Vida Loca:Germans:Social 54 Blog HUMINT Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 6 Blog by German Expats who have moved to Belize. There is a concern that the authors of the blog could shading their reports with a Euro-Centric view (http://goto-belize.blogspot.com/)

Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública Pan American Journal of Public Health 58 Research Center Open Source Monthly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Journal of public health (Pan American Journal of Public Health) has many papers on public health issues in Belize (http://journal.paho.org/?s=Belize&searchbutton=Go!)


UN Food and Agricultural Organization UN FAO 72 Government Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Provides reports on Food an Agricultural develops in Belize (http://www.fao.org/corp/google_result/en/?cx=018170620143701104933%3Aqq82jsfba7w&q=Belize&x=0 &y=0&cof=FORID%3A9&siteurl=www.fao.org%2F#940)

World Health Organization WHO 60 Research Center Open Source Monthly Useful 9:00 AM 8 Maintains data on disease and health in Belize. http://www.who.int/countries/blz/en/

Technology Belize Electric Limited BEL 63 Corporate Website Open Source Weekly Useful 9:00 AM 8 The official website of the Electric Company in Belize (http://www.bel.com.bz/)

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Belize Natural Entergy Ltd BNE 65 Corporate Website Open Source As Needed Useful 9:00 AM 8 The website of the Natural Gas and Oil Company in Belize (http://www.belizenaturalenergy.bz/)

Belize Telemedia Limited BTL 64 Government Website Open Source As Needed Useful 9:00 AM 8 The official website of the telephone company in Belize (http://www.belizetelemedia.net/)

Federation of American Scientists FAS Website 68 Research Center Open Source Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Contains useful articles on technological issues pertaining to Belize (http://www.fas.org/search/index.html?cx=011272476961064978591%3Alx1cammk60s&cof=FORID%3A1 1&q=Belize&siteurl=www.fas.org%2F#980)

Treehouse City Guide Treehouse City Guide 62 Online News Source Open Source As Needed Not Useful 9:00 AM 7 Website documenting electricity uses in Belize. Appears to be more geared for tourists (http://treehouse.ofb.net/go/en/voltage/Belize)

UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 70 Government Website Open Source Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Contains papers and article related to technology development in Belize. (http://www.unesco.org/new/en/custom- search/?cx=000136296116563084670%3Ah14j45a1zaw&cof=FORID%3A9&ie=UTF-

UNIDO UN Industrial Development Organization 69 Government Website Open Source Weekly Not Useful 9:00 AM 8 Contains articles and papers related to industrial and technological development in Belize (http://www.google.com/cse?cx=015092308215149726697%3Ae_g5pohcjou&q=belize&sa=Search&cof=F ORID%3A0)

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Annex: 3 Link Analysis

Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in 24 months based on the link analysis methodology. Belizean gangs have a high degree of centrality in Belize due to most Belizeans having been affected by gang related violence. Lord Michael Ashcroft possesses a high degree of betweenness due to his business interests in Belize, shaping relations with the UK, and his involvement with the current Prime Minister of Belize and with the Conservative Party in the UK. The US has a high degree of closeness with Belize due to the aid provided to the Belize Defense Force (BDF) and the Belize Coast Guard to combat drug traffickers who use the country as a drug transshipment point. Discussion: Belizean street gangs have a high degree of centrality in Belize since most members of society are affected by gang violence. Since 2003 Belize’s murder rate has risen from 22 murders per 100,0001 to 41 murders per 100,0002 which is the sixth highest in the world, fifth highest in the Western Hemisphere. The increase in murder is associated with the increased use of Belize as a drug transshipment point. Mexican and Columbian drug cartels use the local gangs as “security” for drug smuggling activities. The cartels pay local gangs in cocaine and marijuana rather than cash. The gangs will sell the “product” to convert it to cash. This creates rivalry among the gangs, which contributes to the growth in violence. This is highly likely to be a destabilizing factor in Belize, however, it is unlikely to affect the overall stability of the country. Lord Michael Ashcroft possesses a high degree of betweenness due to his business interests in Belize and his involvement with the Prime Minister of Belize, the Official Opposition Party of Belize, the Conservative Party in the UK, and the House of Lords in the British Parliament. Lord Ashcroft, through his ownership of Belize Holdings, controls interests in Belize Bank, citrus farms, ship registration, real estate, and until 2009 Belize Telemedia Ltd. Belize Bank controls 42% of the loan portfolio and 37% of the deposits in Belize. It is the largest financial institution operating in Belize3. Lord Ashcroft is a former law client of the Prime Minister, Dean Barrow4, and Ashcroft has donated to the current Belize Opposition Party (People’s United Party) in the past5. The Prime Minister of Belize has stated in parliament that Lord Ashcroft is likely worth more than the GDP of Belize and he should not be crossed. Lord Ashcroft is a life peer and sits on the Conservative Party bench in the UK House of Lords. He has

Figure 3.1: Displays the relationship of drug trafficking, local gangs and increasing violence in Belize Source: i2 Analyst Notebook

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in the past donated significant sums of money to the UK Conservative Party6. Lord Ashcroft is likely to be a stabilizing figure in Belize as long as he continues to own significant assets in Belize. It is somewhat likely the UK will support Belize so that an ennobled life peer will not lose his significant investment

portfolio. The US has a high degree of closeness with Belize due to the aid provided to the Belize Defense Force and the Belize Coast Guard to combat drug traffickers. Since 2008 the US has provided Belize

about 15 million (USD) in security assistance, including boats and other vehicles, communications gear and training programs7. The aid provided by the US to Belize is likely to be a stabilizing factor since the US has a strong interest eliminating the use of Belize as a drug transshipment point. Discussion: The sources for the link analysis are reliable. A combination of official government data sources and news sources inside and outside of the target country were used. Sources were updated as new information became available.

It was difficult to determine the intentions of the UK Government with regards to Lord Ashcroft. This required an appraisal of the situation based on the influence Lord Ashcroft wields in the UK Government.

Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 7 1 http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=UNODC&f=tableCode%3A1 2 http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Homicide_level.xlsx 3 http://www.bcbholdings.com/corporate-profile/belize-bank.html 4 http://www.7newsbelize.com/sstory.php?nid=17920 5 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/395318.stm 6 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/7368094/Lord-Ashcroft-cleared-of-breaching-electoral-law-with-5.1m-Tory-donations.html 7 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/mexican-drug-cartels-reach-into-tiny-belize/2011/09/28/gIQA4lxzbL_story.html

Image 3.1: Michael Ashcroft, The Lord Ashcroft Source: guardian.co.uk

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Annex: 4 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Analysis

Executive Summary: Belize is likely to be stable in the next 24 months based on the IPB Methodology. The key factors contributing to stability are the difficult terrain that is comprised of thick jungle, swampy lowlands, barrier reef islands, and mountains. The jungle, swamps, and mountains create a natural barrier that would be difficult for foreign ground forces to navigate. The barrier reef islands create obstacles for a sea approach by a foreign navy. Finally, the Belize Defense Forces (BDF) ground bases are positioned along the key avenues of approach allowing the BDF to conduct a defensive campaign. Discussion: No go zones of Belize are generally located in Southern Belize due to the Maya Mountains and dense jungle coverage. An invading military would likely not conduct operations in the area. The jungle also offers substantial coverage for the BDF to conduct counter-offensive operations. The Maya Mountain area in Southern Belize has very few passable roads that a foreign military could use to move through the region. The only areas of interest in the southern no go regions would be the Vaca1 and Chalillo Hydroelectric Plant2 located along the Mopan River, as well as the Hydro Maya Limited Hydroelectric Plant on the Rio Grande River east of the town of San Miguel3. The no go regions that are located in Northern Belize and along the Caribbean Coast are generally characterized by thick jungle and swamps. The area possesses very few passable roads that a foreign military would need if they were to invade Belize. It would be unlikely a foreign military would conduct operations in the Northern Belize no go areas. The barrier reef off Belize’s coast in the Caribbean Sea iso a no go area for a foreign navy. It is unlikely a foreign navy would attempt to conduct an invasion of Belize by sea due to the limited avenues of approach and the obstacles created by the barrier reef islands. Slow go areas of Belize are generally located in Northern Belize and around population centers. A foreign military invading Belize would likely be able to get through these areas albeit slowly. The slow go areas of Belize are generally described by the swampy lowlands prone to flooding with roads that are generally not suitable for moving large equipment.

Figure 4.1: Natural Barriers and BDF bases along key avenues of approach. Source: Google Earth Legend:

BDF Base: Major Roads:

No Go: Slow Go:

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BDF Ground Force Bases are positioned along the limited number of avenues of approaches that exist in Belize. The placement of the BDF Ground Force bases make it likely the military will be able to act quickly if a foreign power attempts an invasion. The BDF has limited equipment4 in its order of battle to sustain a long or significant operation against a foreign power invading Belize. The BDF will use the jungles, swamps and mountains of Belize to conduct a guerilla campaign until the UK can deploy troops to assist5. The locations of BDF Ground Force bases indicate that Belize is concerned about protecting national sovereignty and confronting narcotics trafficking6. It is highly unlikely that the

BDF is positioned in a manner to allow the government to exercise rigid controls over the population. Comments: The author used the freely available version of Google Earth to undertake this analysis. With the exception of urban areas most of the satellite imagery was of poor quality. This made it difficult to identify some key features. Using other freely available sources and Jane’s Sentinel Country Assessment the author was able to locate features, landmarks, and order of battle. The IPB Image presented in Annex 4a does not show hospitals, communications, bridges, and small airports. These items were removed to enhance the readability of the image presented. Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8

1 http://www.bnamericas.com/news/electricpower/Becol_set_to_begin_Vaca_hydro_plant_operations 2 http://sanpedrosun.net/old/06-043.html 3 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/14198 4 Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: Equipment in Service 5 Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: “A determined invasion could only be repelled with the help of allies; a containing strategy is based upon delaying invaders through a determined jungle guerrilla campaign until reinforcements could be deployed from the UK.” 6 Sentinel Country Risk Assessment, December 2, 2009, HEADLINE: World Armies, Belize: “The army is generally efficient but its small size would limit its ability to cope with major narcotics smuggling operations.”

Image 4.1: Price Barrack BDF Ground Base, Ladyville, Belize Source: http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/61890

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Annex: 4a IPB Image

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Annex: 5 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

Executive Summary: It is likely that Belize will be stable in the next 24 months based on the ACH Methodology. The largest factors contributing to stability include political and military factors. Belize has a strong history with representative democracy. It is unlikely that the party currently in power will attempt to maintain power or the opposition party will attempt to take power by undemocratic means in the next two years. Relations with the UK and US are stable with both nations providing significant aid and support to Belize. It is unlikely the relations will significantly deteriorate in the next 24 months. Belize’s recently ratified ninth constitutional amendment which limits court challenges to certain actions taken by parliament is unlikely to be a source of instability in the next 24 months. Discussion: The strong democratic traditions in Belize and membership in the British Commonwealth are likely to ensure stability over the next 24 months. Belize is a parliamentary democracy with Queen Elizabeth II as the Head-of-State. The Belize Constitution mandates that Elizabeth II must appoint a Governor-General who is a Belize citizen to be her representative in Belize1. The Belize Constitution guarantees universal suffrage, presumption of innocence in a criminal trial, freedom of religion, and freedom of speech. Since Belize gained independence from the UK in 1981, whenever a transition of power has occurred between the two major parties, it has always occurred peacefully2. Adding to Belize’s democratic tradition is the view by local residents that they generally consider their local governments to be fair and open3. According to Jane’s Sentinel Security assessment the next round of elections scheduled for 2013 are not expected to provoke major social or political controversies. Recently, the ninth amendment to the Belize constitution was ratified. The amendment limits court challenges to certain laws passed by parliament. It is highly unlikely over the next 24 months parliament will use the ninth amendment to co-opt the democratic process that has been in place.

Figure 5.1: Stability has a lower “Inconsistency per Hypothesis” score; therefore Belize is likely to be stable in 24 months. Source: PARC ACH 2.0.5

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Belize’s long and extensive relationship with the UK is likely to support stability over the next 24 months. Belize is a member of the British Commonwealth. As a member of the Commonwealth Belize has committed itself, along with other Commonwealth members, to the Commonwealth’s Declaration of Principles. Included in the principles are a commitment to equal rights for all citizens, rights of citizens to participate in the democratic process and promotion of the rule of law4. As previously mentioned, Belize recognizes Elizabeth II as Head-of-State, this fact alone provides the UK a reason to be interested in the stability of Belize. Enlisted personnel in the Belize Defense Force (BDF) receive their basic training in Belize. Officers, senior non-commissioned officers (NCOs) and specialists are trained in the UK. Many BDF officers graduate from the Royal Military Academy

Sandhurst and attend specialized training at the Warminster Training Center in the UK.5 In late 2010 the UK Government announced that it would begin a downsizing at the British Army Training Support Unit Belize (BATSUB) as part of a cost cutting effort during 20116. The downsizing will affect the helicopter support Belize currently receives. It is unlikely the BATSUB downsizing will significantly impact stability in Belize over the next 24 months. The direct foreign aid Belize receives from the US is likely to support stability over the next 24 months. The US Military Liaison Office (MLO) working with the BDF provided the necessary funding to establish the Belize Coast Guard in 20057. The US Government also provided a 300,000 USD donation to the Belize Coast Guard in 2011 to help combat drug traffickers operating off the Belize coast8. On November 2, 2011 the US made another donation to the Belize Coast Guard. The donation has been valued at 8 million USD and consists of two Boston Whaler Outrage Justice Series boats, two SAFE Defender Class Boats, two Ford F-550 Trucks, and a 40-foot container of spare parts9. Comments: The decision maker should be aware that the weight of the evidence entered into the PARC ACH software is based solely on the opinion of the author of this document. The decision maker may have opinions on the weighting that differs from the author and therefore may draw a different conclusion than the author. The author made every effort possible to ensure credible and relevant evidence was used in this analysis to ensure a reliable outcome of the ACH analysis was produced. Source Reliability: 8 Analytic Confidence: 8 1 http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Belize/belize81.html#mozTocId43038 2 http://www.global-travel.co.uk/aboutbelize.htm 3 http://belize1.com/BzLibrary/trust436.html 4 http://www.thecommonwealth.org/Templates/Internal.asp?NodeID=32987

Figure 5.2: The lower the “Inconsistency per Hypothesis” the stronger the contributing factor to stability. Source: PARC ACH 2.0.5

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5 Sentinel Country Assessment, December 9, 2010, Headline: ARMY, Belize: “Officer candidates are sent to some of the best military institutions in the world. Many BDF officers graduate from the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in the UK and the US Army Academy at West Point, attending specialized training at Fort Benning, Georgia in the US and Warminster Training Centre in the UK. Training alternates between the UK and US, with staff courses in Camberley (UK) as well as commanders' courses and basic officer courses alternating between Sandhurst and West Point.” 6 http://www.amandala.com.bz/index.php?id=10677 7 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm 8 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/55336 9 http://www.guardian.bz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3977:coast-guard-receives-8m-equipment-from-the-us&catid=40:politics&Itemid=90

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Annex: 5a Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

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Annex: 5b Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

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Annex: 6 Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Analysis

Belize is likely to seek additional US aid to combat drug

trafficking in the next 12 to 24 months Executive Summary: It is likely that the Government of Belize (GOB) will seek additional aid to combat drug trafficking from the United States (US) in the next 12 to 24 months. It is unlikely that a request for additional aid will strain the Belize/US relationship given the strong public support the international community (including the US) has given for aid. It is likely that aid provided by the US will target known shortcomings in Belize’s ability to patrol its coastline, track flights over its airspace and intercept electronic communications of drug traffickers. Requirement: How will the Government of Belize likely respond to the increased use of the country as a transshipment point by drug traffickers in the next 12 to 24 months? Possible Courses of Action (COA):

COA1 The GOB will negotiate with local gangs to reduce their involvement with drug trafficking

COA2 The GOB will seek additional aid from the United States to combat trafficking

COA3 The GOB will work with other Central American and Caribbean governments to coordinate anti-drug trafficking plans

COA4 The GOB will establish a national drug treatment program COA5 The GOB will allow the Mexican and Columbian drug traffickers to operate

in Belize for monetary considerations COA6 The GOB will do nothing

Screening Criteria:

• COA must contribute to reducing the use of the country as a drug transshipment point • COA must appear to the public that the GOB is “taking action” to combat drug trafficking

Remaining Courses of Action (after screening):

COA1 The GOB will negotiate with local gangs to reduce their involvement with drug trafficking

COA2 The GOB will seek additional aid from the United States to combat trafficking

COA3 The GOB will work with other Central American and Caribbean governments to coordinate anti-drug trafficking plans

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Evaluation Criteria: Eval1 Is there popular support for

the COA? Newspaper & Blog Commentary: 3: Supportive 2: Neither Supportive nor Unsupportive 0: Unsupportive

Eval2 Does parliament support the COA?

PM and Majority Support: 2: Both PM and Majority Support 1: Either PM or Majority Support 0: Neither PM or Majority Support

Eval3 Will the international community support the COA?

International Community Commentary: 2: Publically supportive 1: No public comments 0: Publically unsupportive

Eval4 Will the Belize Defense Force (BDF) and the Police Support the COA?

BDF and Police Support: 2: Supportive 1: Neither Supportive nor Unsupportive 0: Unsupportive

Matrix:

How will the Government of Belize likely respond to the increased use of the country as a transshipment point by drug traffickers in the next 12 to 24 months?

Eval1

Popular Support

Eval2

Parliamentary Support

Eval3

Int’l Support

Eval4

Military and

Police Support

Total

COA1: Negotiate with local

gangs 0 1 11 2 4

COA2: Seek additional aid 3 2 2 2 9

COA3: Coordinate activity with

other nations 2 2 2 2 8

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Sources: COA1 Eval1 http://www.belizetimes.bz/2011/09/09/hard-hitting/

http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/60505 http://www.nationalperspectivebz.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=508:pm-barrow-cries-gang-extortion&catid=53:head-stories&Itemid=77

Eval2 http://ourbelize.net/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2753 http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/61613

Eval3 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/62276/peter-r-neumann/negotiating-with-terrorists

Eval4 Same as COA1/Eval1 and COA/Eval2 COA2 Eval1 http://www.npr.org/2011/10/29/141808741/small-and-isolated-belize-attracts-

drug-traffickers Eval2 Same as COA2/Eval1

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11289/1182232-82-0.stm?cmpid=nationworld.xml

Eval3 Same as COA2/Eval2 Eval4 http://www.army.mil/article/38605/U_S__Army__039_s_elite_train_Belizean_

Forces_in_effort_to_build_partnership__military_capacity_to_de/ COA3 Eval1 Lack of public commentary can be interpreted as not being supportive nor

unsupportive Eval2 http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=

0CC0QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cicad.oas.org%2FFortalecimiento_Institucional%2Feng%2FSummit Declarations%2FSUMMIT DECLARATION-ing.doc&ei=wMmxTpaAEpCasgKn5c3VAQ&usg=AFQjCNE-j3fQ5dB2 http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cicad.oas.org%2Fmem%2Freports%2F4%2FFull_Eval%2FBelize - Fourth Round - ENG.pdf&ei=8cuxTtuVOOnCsQL7rLnbAQ&usg=AFQjCNG4zwZ-ABrK6iLMOecrDXy http://www.caricom.org/jsp/pressreleases/press_releases_2011/pres396_11.jsp

Eval3 http://www.dialogo-americas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/regional_news/2011/04/26/feature-ex-2110

Eval4 Same as COA3/Eval1

1 The Official policy of most democratically elected governments is that they will never negotiate with terrorists or criminal gangs. Therefore, it can be reasoned that the international community will not be supportive of negotiations.

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Annex: 7 Analyst Contact Information

David R. Krauza Graduate Student/Analyst

Department of Intelligence Studies Mercyhurst College

2633 E. 44th Street (814) 397-9610 Erie, Pennsylvania 16510 [email protected]

Stability Study on Belize

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Transcript of Stability Study on Belize